Jeff Benton
Sunday's Hoops winners ...
20 Dime: KANSAS (minus the points vs. Davidson)
15 Dime: MEMPHIS (minus the points vs. Texas)
5 Dime: HEAT (plus the points vs. Celtics)
Kansas
I will not knock the Davidson Wildcats. What this team has done, led by the remarkable Stephen Curry, is beyond impressive, not only to get to the Elite Eight, but winning 25 games in a row in the process. All this said, though, Cinderella?s carriage is turning into a pumpkin tonight, as Kansas is just too damn talented, too damn athletic and too damn deep for Davidson. As many of you know, I stated way back in November that Kansas was my favorite to win it all, and aside from the occasional hiccup here and there, the Jayhawks have done nothing to sway my opinion ? particularly what they?ve done through their first three Tournament games. After crushing Portland State by 24 points (as expected), Kansas buried a solid UNLV squad 75-56 as a 13?-point chalk, then pounded Villanova on Friday in a game that was not nearly as close as the 72-57 final indicated.
To get a firm grasp on just how impressive Kansas has been to this point, consider these numbers; The Jayhawks outscored their first three opponents by an average of 19 points per game (77-58), and again that could be greater had they not let off the gas against Villanova. What?s more, they have shot a ridiculous 55 percent from the field, while allowing their opponents to make just 34 percent of their attempts. But that?s not all: From three-point range ? which is where Davidson makes its living ? Kansas is shooting 43.9 percent. Their opponents? 26.5 percent (17-for-64).
Now check this out: As incredible as Davidson has been in the Tournament so far, the Wildcats (45.5 percent) have shot worse from the field than their opponents (50 percent). Also, Davidson has 10 fewer rebounds than its opponents, getting out-boarded in all three contests! That tells right there how much the Wildcats (mostly Curry) have relied on the three-pointer.
So I ask you: If Gonzaga, Georgetown and Wisconsin ? three defensive-oriented teams that don?t have nearly the kind of explosiveness offensively as Kansas ? can make half of their shots against Davidson and outrebound Davidson, what do you think the Jayhawks are going to do? Guys, Kansas is going to guard the perimeter fiercely tonight, and although Curry probably will get his ? the guy is a freak of nature ? I don?t see him getting much help, if any.
Lay the wood with Kansas, as the Jayhawks and Bill Self FINALLY get to the Final Four ? and do so in convincing fashion.
Memphis
I told you on Friday that the Memphis Tigers have been underrated. overlooked and disrespected by everyone all season long (including by me). And I told you that the players on this team ? which, I remind you, is 36-1 on the season ? would absolutely use the slights as a source of motivation in Friday?s game against Michigan State. So what happened? The Tigers absolutely toyed with the Spartans all night, busting out to a 50-20 halftime lead and cruising to 92-74 victory that ? like Kansas? win over Villanova ? wasn?t nearly that close.
Well, here we are two days later and once again Memphis is getting dissed ? they?re barely favored over second-seeded Texas. And I promise you that coach John Calipari will have his players well aware of that fact coming into this game ? just as I promise you that his players will respond as they did against Michigan State. No, I?m not saying Memphis will dismantle Texas the same way they did the Spartans (although a double-digit win wouldn?t surprise me in the least). What I am saying, however, is that the Tigers? overall body of work is superior to the Longhorns?; their talent is superior to the Longhorns?; their height and length are superior to the Longhorns?; their depth is superior to the Longhorns?; and their coach is superior to the Longhorns?.
The only thing Memphis doesn?t do better than Texas: Shoot free throws, of course. By now we all know about the Tigers? struggles from the charity stripe (they shoot just 60 percent for the season). However, Texas (68 percent) isn?t all that much better. And when you just focus on the last five games, well, what do you know: The Tigers are shooting 63.7 percent from the foul line, compared with the Longhorns? 62.9 percent. Hmm ? And look at what happened Friday: Memphis drained 26 of 35 free tries (74.3 percent) vs. Michigan State, while Texas went 11-for-18 (61.1 percent) against Stanford. Get the point?
Look, as I said the other day, you can knock Memphis all you want. But you cannot argue the results. Not only have the Tigers won 36 of 37 games on the season, but they?ve defeated a slew of quality opponents, including Michigan State (by 18), Oklahoma (by 10), UConn (by 11), USC (by four), Georgetown (by 14), Arizona (by 13) and Gonzaga (by 8).
Bottom line: After two failed tries in the Elite Eight the last two years, Calipari and his Tigers finish the job tonight. Lay the ridiculously cheap price with Memphis.
Heat
I?ll state right off the bat that I cannot defend the Miami Heat in their current state, which is a borderline NBA D-League team right now without Shawn Marion and DwyaneWade. And I will not knock the Boston Celtics, who have reminded us over the last 10 days that they?re the best team in the NBA. But I?m sorry, you give me 20-plus points in an NBA game ? a game Boston will not take seriously, I promise you ? I simply have to take them on the principle alone. After all, three days ago Miami went to Detroit as a 20?-point underdog, jumped out to 23-18 lead after the first quarter, proceeded to get outscored by 18 points the rest of the way ? and still covered easily in an 85-69 loss. As a matter of fact, as bad as Miami has been, it has covered in four straight games (all as an underdog, obviously), and the Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12, including 5-1 ATS on the road.
Like I said, there?s now way that Boston, which has a road game at Chicago on Tuesday, will play with full intensity tonight. Remember, in a grueling 82-game season, gimme games like this are few and far between, so you can count on the C?s going through the motions tonight. And hell, even if they?re up 30 in the fourth quarter, they?re going to pull all the starters and the backdoor will be wide open. I know it seems ludicrous, folks, but take these huge points and ride Miami?s hot ATS streak.