THE SPORTS ADVISORS
MLB
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Arizona (17-7) at San Diego (10-15)
Two of the best pitchers in the game square off this afternoon at Petco Park, with DBacks ace Brandon Webb (5-0, 2.31 ERA) battling reigning N.L. Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy (3-0, 2.00) and the Padres.
San Diego halted a five-game overall and a five-game home losing skid ? and snapped out of a serious offensive funk ? by outlasting Arizona 8-7 in 13 innings yesterday. The Padres scored two more runs on Saturday than they had in their previous 66 innings at Petco. Still, San Diego remains just 2-9 in its last 11 and has produced three runs or fewer in 16 of their 25 games overall.
Arizona continues to own baseball?s best record and is still 16-5 in its last 21. The DBacks have now scored at least four runs in 20 of their last 21 games, and they?re also 8-5 on the road this year.
Dating to last year, the Diamondbacks are on a 5-2 run against the Friars. However, San Diego is now 5-2 in the past seven meetings at Petco.
Webb, who won the 2006 Cy Young Award, has been outstanding so far, allowing two earned runs or fewer in four of his five outings. His most recent performance on Wednesday against San Francisco was his worst to date, as he surrendered three runs on nine hits in six innings, but still won 5-4.
Webb is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA on the road this year after going 10-5 with a 2.88 ERA on the highway in 2007. The right-hander is just 4-7 despite a 3.78 ERA in 19 career starts against the Padres, including 2-3 with a 3.61 ERA in eight outings at Petco Park. Last year, he faced the Padres five times, going 1-2 with a 3.18 ERA.
Peavy is coming off his worst outing the season, giving up four runs on seven hits over six innings at Houston on Wednesday, getting a no-decision in San Diego?s 11-7 loss. The right-hander has been brilliant at Petco this year, posting a 2-0 record and a 0.38 ERA in three starts (one run and nine hits allowed in 24 innings). San Diego is 13-6 in Peavy?s last 19 trips to the hill, including 5-2 in his last seven at home.
Peavy battled Arizona five times last season, going 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA. He was awesome in three of the outings, giving up a combined one run and eight hits with 37 strikeouts in 24 innings, but terrible in the other two (13 runs allowed in 11 innings). For his career, he?s 10-9 with a 5.11 ERA against the DBacks, but the Padres are 8-1 in his last nine home starts versus the Snakes.
The under is 20-7-2 in Peavy?s last 29 starts in Petco Park. 6-2-1 in his last nine efforts on Sunday, 14-6-1 in Webb?s last 21 starts overall and 5-2 in his last seven on Sunday.
The over is 11-3-1 in Arizona?s last 15 overall, and 7-1-1 in the last nine series meetings between these teams. However, even though Saturday?s game easily hurdled the total, the under is still 10-4 at Petco Park this season, including 7-2 in the last nine, and the under is 8-3 in Arizona?s last 11 on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (15-9) at Detroit (10-14)
Tigers ace Justin Verlander (1-3, 5.93) tries for his second win of the season when he goes up against Jered Weaver (1-3, 4.50) and the Angels in this nationally televised rubber match of a three-game weekend series at Comerica Park.
Detroit had a season-best four-game winning streak halted in Friday?s 4-3 loss to Los Angeles, but bounced back Saturday and prevailed 6-4. Since tallying 15 runs in losing their first six home games, the Tigers have rebounded to go 6-1 in their last seven at Comerica, scoring 63 runs.
Despite Saturday?s setback, Los Angeles is 9-4 in its last 13 games, including 6-2 on the road. For the season, Mike Scioscia?s club is 9-5 on the highway.
The Angels have flat owned Detroit over the years, winning 38 of the last 52 meetings, including nine of the last 13. They?re also 16-8 in their last 24 games at Comerica.
After four ugly starts to begin the season, Verlander settled down in Wednesday?s outing against Texas, giving up just a run on six hits in six innings, cruising to a 10-2 home win. That snapped Detroit?s five-game losing skid in games started by Verlander. Meanwhile, the right-hander is now 1-1 with a 4.58 ERA in three home starts, and Detroit is 23-9 in Verlander?s last 32 at home.
Verlander has faced the Angels twice ? both in 2006 ? and Detroit lost both games by scores of 7-2 at home, even though the righthander gave up just three earned runs in 13 innings (2.08 ERA).
Weaver got rocked at Boston on Wednesday, yielding five runs on 10 hits in five innings of a 7-6 loss, dropping to 0-2 with a 6.88 ERA in three road starts. The Halos are 1-6 in Weaver?s last seven starts dating to last season, including 0-4 on the road.
Weaver?s only two career starts against Detroit came last year at home, and the results weren?t pretty as he gave up a combined 13 runs (11 earned) on 18 hits in just seven total innings (14.14 ERA), but Los Angels managed to split the two games, losing 9-5 and winning 11-6.
The over is 2-0 in Weaver?s two starts against Detroit and 1-0-1 in Verlander?s two outings against Los Angeles.
The under has been the play the past two days after the over was 8-0 in last year?s eight meetings. The over is still 12-6-2 in the last 20 head-to-head clashes in Motown. However, as for recent totals trends, the under is 7-2-1 in L.A.?s last 10 overall and 5-2-1 in Detroit?s last eight overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(4) Cleveland (47-38, 39-46 ATS) at (5) Washington (44-41, 47-38 ATS)
Having finally ended a long playoff losing skid to the Cavaliers, the Wizards now try to make it two in a row and even this best-of-7 series at 2-2 when they host Cleveland inside the Verizon Center.
Washington rebounded from an ugly 30-point loss at Cleveland in Game 2 by pounding the Cavs 108-72, easily cashing as a five-point home favorite. The Wizards shot 52 percent from the field (going 8-for-19 on three-pointers), held Cleveland to 39.7 percent shooting (including 2-for-16 from three-point land), forced 23 turnovers and outscored the Cavs by at least 10 points in each of the final three quarters.
With the Game 3 win, Washington not only snapped a three-game SU and ATS slide going back to the end of the regular season, but it ended an eight-game playoff losing streak to the Cavaliers, who have eliminated the Wizards each of the last two postseasons. Cleveland is still 6-3 ATS in the last nine playoff battles. Also, the home team has won seven in a row in this rivalry, and the favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes.
Despite winning the first two games of this series, the Cavs are still only 7-8 in their last 15 games since mid-March (5-10 ATS). Also, Cleveland is just 3-10 in its last 13 road games (5-8 ATS).
For the season, Cleveland still holds a 4-3 SU and ATS lead against Washington this year, with the home team winning all seven contests (5-2 ATS). Finally, the favorite in this rivalry is on a 7-2 ATS run (playoffs included)
The Cavaliers are still 4-1 ATS in their last five first-round playoff games ? all against Washington ? and are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 as a playoff underdog and 31-16 ATS in their last 47 as a road pup. However, they carry negative ATS trends of 2-6 against teams with a winning record and 1-5 after a pointspread win.
The Wizards are on negative ATS runs of 2-4 against winning teams and 3-5 as a home favorite. On the bright side, they?re 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played on two days? rest and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 as a home chalk of five to 10? points.
The under is 2-1 in this series and is on runs for Cleveland of 8-1 overall, 5-0 as an underdog, 6-0 as a pup of 5 to 10? points, 14-3 as a playoff ?dog and 47-22 on Sundays. On the flip side, for Washington, the over is on streaks of 13-3 at the Verizon Center, including 11-1 as a home chalk, 9-5 overall, 22-9 against the East and 6-4 in the playoffs (all against Cleveland). Finally, the over is 6-3 in the last eight clashes between these rivals in Washington.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(2) Detroit (60-25, 46-38-1 ATS) at (7) Philadelphia (42-43, 45-37-3 ATS)
The 76ers, who entered this best-of-7 series as a heavy underdog, looks to take a commanding 3-1 series lead when they host the Pistons in Game 4 at the Wachovia Center.
Philadelphia bounced back from a 17-point Game 2 loss in Detroit with Friday?s 95-75 rout of the Pistons, cashing as a 5?-point home underdog. It was just the second win in the Sixers? last seven games both SU and ATS, while the Pistons fell to 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven. The winner has cashed in each team?s last 11 games.
Philly is now 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS against the Pistons this season, including 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings. Also, despite Friday?s outcome, the favorite in this rivalry is on a 13-7-1 ATS roll, and the road team is 8-4 ATS in the last 12 matchups.
Detroit, which has now lost six of its last seven playoff games, is in the midst of negative ATS trends of 6-12-1 in the playoffs (1-6 ATS last seven), 6-17-1 as a playoff chalk (1-8 last nine as a playoff favorite), 3-8 against the Atlantic Division, 4-11 as a road favorite and 2-8 overall on the highway.
Philadelphia remains on positive ATS runs of 15-7-1 as a pup, 9-3 against the Central Division and 7-1 as a home ?dog of less than five. However, the Sixers are just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 playoff games as an underdog, 6-11-3 ATS in their last 20 in conference quarterfinal games, 4-7 ATS in their last 11 when catching less than five points and 2-4 ATS in their past six at home.
For Detroit, the under is on streaks of 11-4 overall, 10-3 as a favorite, 13-3 against the East, 5-0 as a road chalk and 7-1 on the highway. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has seen the over-under alternate in its last 10 contests overall, and the under is 5-1 in its last six at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(3) San Antonio (59-26, 39-44-2) at (6) Phoenix (55-30, 40-42-3 ATS)
What was supposed to be the most competitive and compelling first-round playoff series in recent memory has turned into a one-sided affair, as the defending champion Spurs carry a 3-0 lead in today?s contest at the US Airways Center.
After escaping with two close wins at home, San Antonio went to Phoenix on Friday and pushed the Suns around all night, leading wire-to-wire in a 115-99 upset victory as a 7?-point road underdog. Tony Parker had a monster night with 41 points and 12 assists, and Tim Duncan (23 points, 10 rebounds) contributed a double-double as the Spurs shot 56.1 percent from the field.
Going back to the regular season, the Spurs have won five straight games, and they?ve followed up 2-6 ATS slump with back-to-back spread-covers. Also, going back to last year?s postseason, Gregg Popovich?s club has won nine straight playoff games (7-2 ATS), going 4-0 (3-1 ATS) on the road during this stretch.
Phoenix, which ended the regular season on a 15-5 romp, has dropped three in a row for the first time all season, and is 7-9 ATS in its last 16.
With Friday?s result, the underdog is now 6-1 ATS in this rivalry this season, going 5-2 SU. Also, San Antonio, which took out Phoenix in last year?s conference semis by winning the series 4-2 (3-2-1 ATS), is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 visits to the US Airways Center.
Despite their recent surge, the Spurs are in the midst of ATS funks of 2-4 against the Pacific Division, 4-8 as an underdog, 5-12 as a road pup and 1-4 on the highway. One positive for San Antonio is its 6-1 ATS run in first-round playoff games.
The Suns are still on positive pointspread trends of 8-3 at home, 12-6-1 against the Western Conference, 6-1 after a non-cover, 4-2 after a SU loss, 7-3 as a home favorite and 10-5-1 overall as a chalk.
The under cashed in all four regular-season meetings between these squads, but the over has been the play in all three games of this playoff series. Additionally, for Phoenix, the over is on runs of 5-0 in conference quarterfinal games, 11-4 as a playoff favorite, 10-4 against the Southwest Division and 12-5 as a home chalk. For San Antonio, the over streaks are 6-0 overall, 6-0 against the West, 5-0 following a SU win, 7-1 against the Pacific Division (including a current 5-0 run) and 8-2 with the Spurs catching points in the playoffs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and OVER
(2) New Orleans (58-27, 51-32-2 ATS) at (7) Dallas (52-33, 36-45-4 ATS)
After an impressive Game 3 win, the Mavericks will now attempt to even their best-of-7 series against the Hornets when the teams battle at American Airlines Center tonight.
With their backs against the wall after a pair of double-digit losses in New Orleans, the Mavs came home on Friday and responded with a convincing 97-87 victory, cashing as a six-point chalk. Dallas, which held New Orleans to just 38 percent shooting in Game 3, is still only 2-4 SU in its last six and 2-6 ATS in its last eight. Meanwhile, the Hornets are just 4-5 in their last nine (5-4 ATS).
The home team has won all seven head-to-head meetings this season, going 7-0 ATS in the process. In fact, the last five battles have been decided by double digits, and the favorite is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 series clashes, including 6-0 ATS in the last six.
The Hornets, who sported the league?s third-best ATS mark in the regular season, are still on a multitude of positive pointspread streaks, including 40-19-1 overall, 6-2 in conference quarterfinal games, 9-4 against the Western Conference, 20-10 as an underdog and 31-16-2 as a visitor. On the downside, they are on ATS slides of 3-8-1 as a playoff underdog, 2-6 as a road pup of any price and 1-6 as a road ?dog of five to 10.5 points.
Dallas? last two home wins have come against the Hornets, but the Mavs are still on negative pointspread streaks of 5-10 against winning teams, 3-6 at home and 1-6 in first-round playoff games. On the positive side, Dallas is 38-17-1 in its last 56 against Southwest Division rivals.
The ?over? trends run particularly heavy for New Orleans, including 4-1 overall, 7-2 as a road ?dog of any price and 5-2 catching 5 to 10? points on the road. For Dallas, the over is on streaks of a 4-2 overall and 5-2 against the Southwest Division. However, the under is on runs of 10-3 for the Mavs as a favorite, 9-2 for the Mavs as a playoff favorite, 7-2 for the Mavs at home, 20-7-1 for the Mavs on Sundays, 5-2 for New Orleans on the highway and 6-2 for New Orleans on Sundays
Finally, these teams stayed under the number in Game 3, ending a 4-0 ?over? streak in this rivalry. The under is now 12-5-1 in the last 18 clashes between these rivals and is 8-1 the last nine meetings in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and UNDER
