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Cleveland 27 - NY JETS 20?Browns (3 giveaways) got sloppy with the ball
last week at Arizona. But they?re still the go-with team in this pairing, likely to
bring much more offense to bear, especially with the Jets? defense ranking way
down the list (which is ?held up? by Cleveland?s, of course). But Browns? young
offense (rebuilt OL has held together well) has the type receiver group (Braylon
Edwards now 12 TDC) that Jets are seeking. Will note that N.Y. won two as a
home dog in OT.
(06-CLE. 20-Jets 13...C.16-12 C.39/147 N.27/88 C.15/22/1/120 N.11/28/2/105 C.0 N.1)
(06-CLEVELAND -2 20-13...SR: Cleveland 12-7)
DENVER 19 - Kansas City 16?Denver has not been a worthy favorite TY (1-
6 in role), while K.C.?s offense (12 ppg last 4) has been besieged by backfield
injuries. Chiefs might get a boost if Larry Johnson (out the last 4 games; check
status) returns, even though rookie RB Kolby Smith (233 YR last 2 games)
hasn?t been the main problem. But Herm Edwards? defense still playing hard
and has revenge in mind. Broncs (3-11 vs. spread last 1+seasons at home)
can?t be trusted.
(07-Denver 27-K. CITY 11...K.19-18 D.29/141 K.22/67 K.23/45/3/217 D.17/31/1/186 D.0 K.1)
(06-DENVER 9-K. City 6 (OT)...D.18-16 D.36/145 K.34/145 D.16/30/1/173 K.17/23/0/131 D.0 K.2)
(06-K. CITY 19-Denver 10...K.22-16 K.41/223 D.16/38 D.25/39/1/206 K.13/22/1/159 K.0 D.0)
(07-Denver +3 27-11; 06-DENVER -10' 9-6 (OT), KANSAS CITY -1' 19-10...SR: Kansas City 52-43)
*Indianapolis 31 - BALTIMORE 14?The wistful among the M&T Bank
Stadium faithful can be excused for looking at playoff-bound Indy and recalling
the glory days of Johnny Unitas & Co. when the Colts played in town. They?re
sure not going down memory lane with the current Ravens team that is
collectively past its sell-by date and had covered just once all year heading into
last Monday?s game vs. Patriots. Baltimore can no longer rely on its aging
defense (32 points or more 3 of last 4) to compensate for its woes on offense.
TV?NBC
(06-Indy 15-BALT. 6...I.15-13 I.35/100 B.20/83 I.15/30/2/161 B.18/29/2/161 I.0 B.2)
(06-Indianapolis +4 15-6 (Playoffs)...SR: Indianapolis 5-2)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 10
*New Orleans 23 - ATLANTA 13?N.O. (5-7) missed a chance last week to
win the game it had to win to get to .500, fumbling on a risky play near the 50 and
a 23-20 lead with less than four minutes to play. But the Saints have proven to
be a mentally-resilient team TY, with good leadership from coaches and QB
Brees. Meanwhile, fragile Falcons a risky proposition, with top three OTs lost
for the year and all losses by 6 points of more. CABLE TV?ESPN
(07-N. ORL. 22-Atl. 16...A.18-14 N.22/91 A.24/75 A.27/41/0/259 N.22/34/1/219 N.0 A.0)
(06-N. ORL. 23-Atl. 3...N.19-10 N.34/146 A.23/117 N.20/28/0/180 A.12/31/0/112 N.0 A.0)
(06-N. Orl. 31-ATL. 13...A.21-20 A.45/281 N.25/95 N.21/30/0/332 A.9/24/0/52 N.0 A.0)
(07-N. ORLEANS -8 22-16; 06-NEW ORLEANS +3' 23-3, New Orleans +3 31-13...SR:
Atlanta 44-33)
*****NBA KEY RELEASES *****
DETROIT by 17 over Chicago (Friday, December 7)
DENVER by 19 over Sacramento (Saturday, December 8)
GOLDEN STATE by 7 over L.A. Lakers (Sunday, December 9)
*****KEY COLLEGE RELEASES*****
MISSOURI by 17 over Purdue (Sat., December 8 Day)
RHODE ISLAND by 2 over Syracuse (Sat., Dec. 8)
CS NORTHRIDGE Plus over Gonzaga (Sat., Dec. 8)
VILLANOVA by 17 over Temple (Sun., Dec. 9)
WINNING POINTS
NFL
****BEST BET
Carolina over *Jacksonville by 10
There?s one thing the Panthers can do and that?s win away from home.
Carolina has knocked off Arizona,Atlanta,New Orleans and St. Louis on the
road this year.The Panthers are at their best as a road underdog, especially
in December where they have covered 13 of the past 15 times in this role.
Consequently, Jacksonville is at its worst laying a big price.The Jaguars have
been double-digit chalk four times during the last three years.They?ve failed
to cover every time, including laying 10 this season to the Falcons.
Jacksonville managed only to beat Atlanta, 13-7.The Jaguars are a conservative
team that wins playing good defense, running the ball and limiting mistakes.
That means taking few shots downfield.This philosophy fits their personnel,
but is not necessarily good for covering a large pointspread. The
Panthers are not devoid of talent. Julius Peppers is an elite defensive end.
Linebacker Jon Beason is a candidate for defensive rookie of the year. Steve
Smith remains a dangerous playmaker. After fiddling around with totally
ineffective David Carr, Panthers coach John Fox fully realizes 44-year-old
Vinny Testaverde gives his team the best opportunity to win.The Panthers
had no confidence when the battered Carr was under center.They have a
much better attitude and downfield threat with Testaverde. Smith plays better.
So do running backs DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams. One reason
why the Panthers play better on the road is less pressure.The onus is
on Jacksonville. Don?t be surprised if the Jaguars don?t respond well this
week. Jacksonville played well at Indianapolis last Sunday, but still lost.That
defeat, in all probability, ended the Jaguars?AFC South Division title hopes.
The Jaguars have a key road tilt next week at Pittsburgh.This interconference
matchup isn?t big on their radar screen. CAROLINA 24-14.
***BEST BET
*Green Bay over Oakland by 27
The combination of Green Bay having four extra days to game-plan and get
healthy, the Raiders coming into cold weather and drawing an early start
time puts us in the Packers? corner. Brett Favre should be fine to start, but
even if he isn?t the Packers have enough to cover this spread with Aaron
Rodgers.The Raiders entered Week 13 with the worst run defense in the
league.The Packers are particularly tough when they can get their ground
attack going, which makes their play-action passes and frequent slant patterns
even more effective. The Raiders have a decent secondary, but not
nearly enough depth to cover Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and rookie
James Jones. Green Bay is 3-0 SU and ATS versus AFC West teams this season.
Favre played his worst game of the season last Thursday against Dallas.
So did the Packers? defense. Some of this, of course,was because of Dallas,
the class of the NFC so far. But some also was injury-related.More than likely
the Packers will get back their two key defensive players that didn?t play
against the Cowboys, cornerback Charles Woodson and pass rusher Kabeer
Gbaja-Biamila. Justin Fargas has been running well for the Raiders, but the
team still turns the ball over too much (26 giveaways) and commits too
many penalties to hang with an elite team like the Packers at such a tough
road venue. The Raiders? quarterback situation consists of Daunte
Culpepper,who isn?t 100 percent and still doesn?t have a full grasp of the
offense, perennial backup Josh McCown and rookie JaMarcus Russell, who
is just beginning to get his feet wet. The Packers are out for redemption
after a rare poor showing. They are a well-coached, fundamentally sound
team with plenty of big-play ability.The Raiders have yet to exhibit any of
these traits. GREEN BAY 37-10.
**PREFERRED
*Tennessee over San Diego by 10
The Chargers have seized control of the weak AFC West, but have yet to
establish a consistent passing attack and have covered just two of their last
eight away contests. Vince Young is the kind of quarterback San Diego?s
speed pass rushers can?t catch up to. Young?s passing is getting sharper
every week.The Titans have an inside-outside rushing tandem of LenDale
White and Chris Brown to keep the Chargers on their heels. Star defensive
lineman Albert Haynesworth returned last Sunday for Tennessee after missing
three games with a groin injury.The difference was amazing when he
wasn?t in the lineup.The Titans surrendered 97 points in the three games
Haynesworth missed. Their run defense is top-notch when Haynesworth
plays, which is crucial in bottling up LaDainian Tomlinson. Philip Rivers
isn?t enough of a playmaker to lead San Diego to a road victory unless he?s
getting a major contribution from Tomlinson. Flying from the West Coast to
Nashville for an early start time is a major negative for the Chargers.The last
time they had to do that was three weeks ago at Jacksonville and they were
flat in a 24-17 loss. The Titans also have a huge coaching edge with Jeff
Fisher going against Norv Turner.TENNESSEE 20-10.
*San Francisco over Minnesota by 4
Unlike most seasons, there is more of a gap in the NFL this season between
the haves and the have-nots.The 49ers definitely are a have-not.They?ve lost
nine of their past 10 games. Frank Gore has rushed for 100 yards once this
season. San Francisco has broken the 20-point barrier only one time. But
the Vikings are not a ?have? team yet.Yes, they have won four of their past
five. Adrian Peterson is a dominating running back. Even Tarvaris Jackson
has picked up his play, completing 45-of-58 passes for 504 yards and three
touchdowns during the past three games. However, Minnesota is traveling
to the West Coast in the rare spot of being a road favorite.The game is on
grass. The Vikings are used to playing indoors on carpet. Their pass rush
isn?t going to be as effective because of this. The Vikings, under Brad
Childress, aren?t used to playing under this kind of pressure.They are shooting
for a wild-card spot and expected to win. It?s a division sandwich, too,
for Minnesota.The Vikings just hosted the Lions and are home to the Bears
the following Sunday.The 49ers have nothing to lose.They can play loose.
Veteran quarterback Trent Dilfer has decent receiving targets.The Vikings
went into last week ranked last in pass defense. SAN FRANCISCO 21-17.
THE SPORTS REPORTER
SUPER BEST BET
*HOUSTON over TAMPA BAY by 21
How do you beat the Tampa Bay defense? With a bowling ball between the tackles that
circumvents their pass rush and avoids their zone coverage. Rise up, Ron Dayne, from
the NFL living dead of running back options. Dayne actually had 86 yards on 18 carries
in last week?s loss by Houston at Tennessee, so a productive game by the former
Heisman winner would not be completely out of left field. The Bucs are off a hard-fought
win against division-rival New Orleans. With four games remaining on the schedule, they
now lead the NFC South by three games over Carolina, a team that died weeks ago, and
New Orleans, against whom the Bucs are 2-0 in 2007. Tampa Bay is a commanding 4-
0 within its division and 7-2 in NFC play, and this non-conference game affects neither
of those potential tie-breaking records. To sum it all up, this is the least important game
on the Bucs? schedule. When a team invests as much time and energy on the division as
the Bucs have, and their investment has paid off as well as it has to date, the team has
earned the right to take a week off ? or, so the team thinks. The schedule, however, says
they have to play a game on artificial turf in Houston with a third-string running back and
possibly Luke McCown starting at quarterback. They got away with it last Sunday but will very surprising if they get away with it here. HOUSTON, 31-10.
BEST BET
*JACKSONVILLE over CAROLINA by 24
The pitiful Panthers showed some signs of life last week against an even worse 49er
team, but travel to face a talented and angry Jaguars team. Carolina has actually managed
an impressive 4-2 record on the road this season, but all four of those wins came
in the first six weeks of the year. Lots of things have gone south for the Panthers since
week six. The Jags, once again, came this close to dethroning the Colts for the AFC South
title but fell three points short. They?ll take little solace in the effort and look to work out
their frustrations against the non-conference opponent visiting this weekend. The
Jacksonville running attack should find plenty of room to run against a Panthers defense
that gives up an average of 112 yards on the ground. Carolina has not fared well against
the AFC South this season, losing games to Houston, Indianapolis and Tennessee without
putting up much of a fight. This week?s scenario does them no favors by matching
them up with a Jaguars team gearing into playoff mode and intent on proving themselves
after losing a big game last week. Vinny Testaverde won the dinosaur match-up vs. Trent
Dilfer last Sunday. Good for him. JACKSONVILLE 34-10.
BEST BET
MINNESOTA over *SAN FRANCISCO by 18
Only in the bad, bad NFC could it have happened this soon and yes, a 6-6 SU record after
12 games is only one game better than at this point a year ago -- but Minnesota is the
latest in a long line of Year Two teams to move up after terrible Year Ones. Injuries and
the transition to a new head coach held them back after Brad Childress and staff
replaced Tice and staff in 2006. The quarterback position has held them back from making
a quantum leap in 2007, but it?s not like the Vikings have a quarterback that can outduel
Tarvaris Jackson. Trent ?What, Me Care?? Dilfer tossed four interceptions last
Sunday and if you?re a 49ers players, it can?t be too exciting to be 3-9 in December, waking
up to practice with this sour-pussed, accidental Super Bowl ring wearer as your
leader. Vikings players must bond together behind the baby carriage like Pittsburgh
Steelers players rallied in support of Ben Roethisberger in 2004 and 2005. As noted before with the Vikings, they usually run the ball well and do a good job of containing or
stopping the other team?s running game. They play like those Steelers played.
Sometimes, their defense even rises up and gets turnovers. They ran away from Atlanta
and the New York Giants by getting defensive touchdowns. When you do something once
or twice, sometimes you can do it again. The Vikings played here off a short week last
season, very, very injured, and lost 9-6. They remember. MINNESOTA, 24-6.
RECOMMENDED
DALLAS over *DETROIT by 21
The proverbial goose looks positively cooked in Detroit, where the early season hopes
brewed by a 6-2 start have vanished in the smoke of a smoldering four-game slide. The
Detroit offense was dealt another blow when leading receiver Roy Williams was felled by
a knee injury that makes him questionable for this week?s contest. In actuality, it?s debatable
as to whether his presence would matter in the final outcome anyway. Dallas has
looked nearly unbeatable for most of the season, taking on all comers ? except for the
New England Patriots, of course. The Cowboys formula is simple: throw early and often
then close out games with the strong running of Marion Barber. The Dallas defense has
also played exceptionally well this year, relying on their bevy of pass rushers to consistently
harass opposing quarterbacks while limiting running backs to an average of 84
yards per game ? fourth best in the NFL. Greg Ellis and DeMarcus Ware have already
notched 10+ sacks each and facing a Mike Martz-coached offense should see these
hybrid DE/LBs finding plenty of opportunities to rush the passer. Martz is notorious for
flooding the field with receivers to the detriment of the pass protection, but never seems
to adjust regardless of how many hits his QB ends up taking. For the record, Jon Kitna
has been sacked a league-leading 44 times. Dallas will add several to that tally in this road victory. DALLAS 35-14.
RECOMMENDED
*TENNESSEE over SAN DIEGO by 8
Norv Stram now has most of the NFL right where he wants it: looking away from him and
San Diego?s 7-5 record ? the worst record among the four AFC division-leaders, but still
two games and a head-to-head win better than nearest pursuer, 5-7 SU Denver.
However, the one guy staring at him is also 7-5 SU and is not in a position to win his division.
Therefore, Titans? head coach Jeff Fisher can sell this game as the biggest of the
season to his players, who can get to 8-5 SU and legitimate Wild Card contention status
with Jacksonville and Cleveland by protecting home field against a visitor that is 0-4 SU
and ATS in non-division road games this season. "We just kept applying pressure the
whole game and we didn't let up," said Chargers? Shawne Merriman about the win in
Kansas City last week, accomplished against sub-par statue quarterbacks, a lousy offensive
line and back-up running backs. Tennessee?s offensive line is solid and Vince Young
is a wild card player at the quarterback position. Tennessee?s offense is up from 16 first
downs per game to 17 this season, while San Diego?s is down from 20 to 18. Young can
do more with his legs than Phillip Rivers can. TENNESSEE, 29-21.
RECOMMENDED
ARIZONA over *SEATTLE by 3
Huge game for the 6-6 SU Cardinals, who are 1-0 in the season series with Seattle but
two games behind the 8-4 SU Seahawks in the NFC West. Do they have what it takes to
make the next three games after this one a sprint to the wire? The Seahawks had a
Feeley-good day at Philadelphia last Sunday when running back Shaun Alexander
returned to action for the stretch run while the defense picked the Eagles? #2 quarterback
four times. Despite the apparent disadvantage of having Matt (Dink-and-Dunk)
Leinart at quarterback for the first meeting, the Cardinals were able to gain 431 offensive
yards to 370 and won the game 23-20 despite being only even in Turnover Ratio.
Mercifully, Leinart?s attitude and injuries have moved him out of the picture. Kurt Warner
will quarterback Arizona this time around ? for better or worse, as it always is with
Warner. The Cardinals are on a 0-2 SU and ATS run in Seattle.Warner fumbled four times
in last season?s 21-10 defeat, and the team melted down immediately after he was
knocked out the 37-12 defeat in 2005 with an injury. Hold onto the damn ball and don?t
get hurt, you?ARIZONA, 23-20.
RECOMMENDED
*TENNESSEE over SAN DIEGO by 8
Norv Stram now has most of the NFL right where he wants it: looking away from him and
San Diego?s 7-5 record ? the worst record among the four AFC division-leaders, but still
two games and a head-to-head win better than nearest pursuer, 5-7 SU Denver.
However, the one guy staring at him is also 7-5 SU and is not in a position to win his division.
Therefore, Titans? head coach Jeff Fisher can sell this game as the biggest of the
season to his players, who can get to 8-5 SU and legitimate Wild Card contention status
with Jacksonville and Cleveland by protecting home field against a visitor that is 0-4 SU
and ATS in non-division road games this season. "We just kept applying pressure the
whole game and we didn't let up," said Chargers? Shawne Merriman about the win in
Kansas City last week, accomplished against sub-par statue quarterbacks, a lousy offensive
line and back-up running backs. Tennessee?s offensive line is solid and Vince Young
is a wild card player at the quarterback position. Tennessee?s offense is up from 16 first
downs per game to 17 this season, while San Diego?s is down from 20 to 18. Young can
do more with his legs than Phillip Rivers can. TENNESSEE, 29-21.
TOM SCOTT?S ANGLE OF THE WEEK
Posted: 2007-12-04
Sometimes, no matter how bad the opponent is, a team should not be favored. There?s a situation in the NFL this week that finds a substantial home favorite who has been unable to crack the 21-point mark in any of his last three games. If you can?t score 21 in the NFL it?s difficult to win the game let alone cover a spread as a favorite. For example: All NFL teams who failed to score 21 points in games since 1980 went 2003-4735-179 to the spread, less than 30% winners. Favorites who didn?t come up with the black jack went 594-2063-75 ATS or 22.3% winners. Favorites of -4 or more were 274-1112-21 to the number and less than 20% of the tickets got cashed. With that idea in mind and a little tweak here and there, I present my Angle of the Week:
PLAY AGAINST any NFL division home favorite of -4 or more who failed to score 21 or more points in any of his last three games if he is off a SU and ATS win and is going into revenge.
26 Year ATS = 13-1 for 92.8%
This week?s play = MIAMI over Buffalo
Marc Lawrence
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Carolina head coach John Fox is 18-1 ATS
in his career as a road dog vs. a < .777 foe
that scored 14 > points in its last game.
AWESOME ANGLE
OF THE WEEK
ATS W-L Record
Since 1980:
15-1
FLOOR
13 PLAY AGAINST any Game 13
NFL team off back-to-back SUATS
wins if they scored 35 > pts and
won the last game by 10 > pts
versus a .454 > opponent.
PLAY AGAINST:
DALLAS COWBOYS
Sunday, December 9th
5★ BEST BET
Jags return home off close-call loss against Indianapolis while
Panthers take to the road after romping past the 49ers last
Sunday. The major challenge at hand for Jack Del Rio?s club
will be in attempting to become the fi rst Jacksonville squad
in team history to bring home the bacon as a favorite in
games after taking on the mighty Colts (0-6 ATS). Meanwhile,
Carolina dresses up as a dog knowing they are 14-2-1 ATS as
road dogs against a foe off a loss. They are also 13-2 ATS as
road dogs in December. Toss in our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE
WEEK (page 2) and you have the makings of a live dog taking
on a dead favorite. We?ll take live over dead, every time.
Carolina over JACKSONVILLE by 3
4*
4*Rematch of two division rivals that found the Eagles dropping
a 16-3 verdict earlier this season in New York as -2.5 point
favorites. In that loss Philly held the Giants to a season-low 212
yards, yet lost when they managed a season-low 190 yards of
offense in the contest. Andy Reid has been solid in revenge in
his NFL career, especially in division games (18-7-1). And he?s at
his best in revengers when taking on a sub .700 division foe as
his 17-5-1 ATS mark confi rms. Toss in the ?Black-n-Blue Factor?
(winning teams on the road the game after facing the Bears
are 1-7 ATS these past two seasons) and suddenly the Giants
look like a rotten apple ready to be tossed, especially off last
week?s dramatic comeback win over Chicago.
PHILADELPHIA over NY Giants by 13
3★ BEST BET
Rather quietly the Seahawks have strung together a 4-0
SUATS streak and are suddenly riding high atop the NFC West
division. They can salt the Cardinals away with a win here
today, on a home fi eld where they?ve won 21 of their last 25
games. Added incentive comes from a 3-point loss at Arizona
on Week Two this season. Before you think about putting your
hard earned cabbage on Seattle, we suggest you take a long
look at the rest of the salad bar. For openers Arizona is 5-0
SUATS as a dog against an opponent off a SUATS win. They?re
also 9-0 ATS as dogs versus a division foe off a SUATS win. Toss
in Seattle?s 1-7 ATS mark at home in games off a double-digit
SU dog win and you now have a bountiful plate full of fi xins?
that will likely require a doggie bag to go!
Arizona over SEATTLE by 6
Totals
5* Lions Over
4*Philly Over
3*Pack Under
NFL Week 14 Sports Marketwatch ? Games to Watch
San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans
With more than 3 out of 4 bets coming in on the Chargers, the point spread has actually moved from pick?em to Tennessee -1 at some sportsbooks. We spoke to our line-makers at the sportsbooks ? who confirm ?sharp money? on the Titans.
As ?value investors,? the Sports Marketwatch is always on the lookout for an edge in terms of ?value.? The Chargers were one of the preseason Superbowl favorites ? with superstar ?LT? looking unstoppable. The Chargers stumbled out of the gate ? but we believe their resurgence has created an ?overvalued? Charger team.
Our readers know that we like to ?Bet Against the Public? and look for sports marketplace ?situations? that signal ?smart money? ? just like this. The Titans are tough at home ? so grab the pick?em line while you can.
Tennessee Titans Pick?em
Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets
The New York Jets present a similar ?smart money? situation that the Titans show above. ?Joe Public? is overwhelmingly on Cleveland, to the tune of 81%! With less than 4 out of 5 bets coming in on the lowly Jets ? the line has actually moved towards the Jets.
The line opened at Cleveland -3.5 and has had a huge move off of the ?key? -3.5 to the -3.0 level. Big, ?sharp,? money is coming in on the NY Jets. We also like the fact that the Jets are home dogs ? that are starting to show some signs of life with a promising young QB.
New York Jets +3.5 (SportsInteraction)
Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers
Our weekly readers know that some of our plays require a bottle of Pepto Bismol nearby. We often need bad teams to do good things ? and this is a classic example.
We see ?contrarian value? by selling the Vikings ?on a high? ? particularly after their 42-10 blowout win over Detroit. The Vikings have now won three in a row ? and have their stud rookie RB, Adrian Peterson back. The Public is all over Minnesota ? and that creates value for the other side.
The 3-9 SF 49ers don?t look like much of a challenge, but this is exactly the type of ?ugly game? where value can be found. Historically, home dogs near the end of the NFL season have some teeth to go with their bark. Take the 49ers plus the ?near-double-digit-points? ? plus a shot of Pepto. Near game-time, the spread might widen to +10.
San Francisco 49ers +9.5
So, here?s a wrap-up of ************** analysis for this week?s Games to Watch for NFL Week 14.
Games to Watch (21-14-2)
Tennessee Titans Pick?em
New York Jets +3.5
San Francisco 49ers +9.5
Paul Sonner
BI TEAM LINE
103 Panthers UN38
107 Dolphins UN36
105 Cowboys OV51
126 Jets +3.5
120 Texans +3
123 Vikings UN39
Best Bet:
113 Steelers OV47
Nick Bogdanovich
BI TEAM LINE
105 Cowboys -11
110 Eagles -3
113 Steelers +10.5
115 Chargers +1
120 Texans +3
124 49ers +8
Best Bet:
126 Jets +3.5
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Dallas -11 vs Detroit
Pittsburgh +10.5 vs New England
Minnesota -8.5 vs San Francisco
Miami/Buffalo Under 36.5
Green Bay -10 vs Oakland
Single Plays
Jacksonville -10.5 vs Carolina
Philadelphia -3 vs New York Giants
Arizona +7 vs Seattle
San Diego pk vs Tennessee
Indianapolis -9 vs Baltimore
THE SPORTS REPORTER
SUPER BEST BET
*HOUSTON over TAMPA BAY by 21
How do you beat the Tampa Bay defense? With a bowling ball between the tackles that
circumvents their pass rush and avoids their zone coverage. Rise up, Ron Dayne, from
the NFL living dead of running back options. Dayne actually had 86 yards on 18 carries
in last week?s loss by Houston at Tennessee, so a productive game by the former
Heisman winner would not be completely out of left field. The Bucs are off a hard-fought
win against division-rival New Orleans. With four games remaining on the schedule, they
now lead the NFC South by three games over Carolina, a team that died weeks ago, and
New Orleans, against whom the Bucs are 2-0 in 2007. Tampa Bay is a commanding 4-
0 within its division and 7-2 in NFC play, and this non-conference game affects neither
of those potential tie-breaking records. To sum it all up, this is the least important game
on the Bucs? schedule. When a team invests as much time and energy on the division as
the Bucs have, and their investment has paid off as well as it has to date, the team has
earned the right to take a week off ? or, so the team thinks. The schedule, however, says
they have to play a game on artificial turf in Houston with a third-string running back and
possibly Luke McCown starting at quarterback. They got away with it last Sunday but will very surprising if they get away with it here. HOUSTON, 31-10.
BEST BET
*JACKSONVILLE over CAROLINA by 24
The pitiful Panthers showed some signs of life last week against an even worse 49er
team, but travel to face a talented and angry Jaguars team. Carolina has actually managed
an impressive 4-2 record on the road this season, but all four of those wins came
in the first six weeks of the year. Lots of things have gone south for the Panthers since
week six. The Jags, once again, came this close to dethroning the Colts for the AFC South
title but fell three points short. They?ll take little solace in the effort and look to work out
their frustrations against the non-conference opponent visiting this weekend. The
Jacksonville running attack should find plenty of room to run against a Panthers defense
that gives up an average of 112 yards on the ground. Carolina has not fared well against
the AFC South this season, losing games to Houston, Indianapolis and Tennessee without
putting up much of a fight. This week?s scenario does them no favors by matching
them up with a Jaguars team gearing into playoff mode and intent on proving themselves
after losing a big game last week. Vinny Testaverde won the dinosaur match-up vs. Trent
Dilfer last Sunday. Good for him. JACKSONVILLE 34-10.
BEST BET
MINNESOTA over *SAN FRANCISCO by 18
Only in the bad, bad NFC could it have happened this soon and yes, a 6-6 SU record after
12 games is only one game better than at this point a year ago -- but Minnesota is the
latest in a long line of Year Two teams to move up after terrible Year Ones. Injuries and
the transition to a new head coach held them back after Brad Childress and staff
replaced Tice and staff in 2006. The quarterback position has held them back from making
a quantum leap in 2007, but it?s not like the Vikings have a quarterback that can outduel
Tarvaris Jackson. Trent ?What, Me Care?? Dilfer tossed four interceptions last
Sunday and if you?re a 49ers players, it can?t be too exciting to be 3-9 in December, waking
up to practice with this sour-pussed, accidental Super Bowl ring wearer as your
leader. Vikings players must bond together behind the baby carriage like Pittsburgh
Steelers players rallied in support of Ben Roethisberger in 2004 and 2005. As noted before with the Vikings, they usually run the ball well and do a good job of containing or
stopping the other team?s running game. They play like those Steelers played.
Sometimes, their defense even rises up and gets turnovers. They ran away from Atlanta
and the New York Giants by getting defensive touchdowns. When you do something once
or twice, sometimes you can do it again. The Vikings played here off a short week last
season, very, very injured, and lost 9-6. They remember. MINNESOTA, 24-6.
WINNING POINTS
NFL
****BEST BET
Carolina over *Jacksonville by 10
There?s one thing the Panthers can do and that?s win away from home.
Carolina has knocked off Arizona,Atlanta,New Orleans and St. Louis on the
road this year.The Panthers are at their best as a road underdog, especially
in December where they have covered 13 of the past 15 times in this role.
Consequently, Jacksonville is at its worst laying a big price.The Jaguars have
been double-digit chalk four times during the last three years.They?ve failed
to cover every time, including laying 10 this season to the Falcons.
Jacksonville managed only to beat Atlanta, 13-7.The Jaguars are a conservative
team that wins playing good defense, running the ball and limiting mistakes.
That means taking few shots downfield.This philosophy fits their personnel,
but is not necessarily good for covering a large pointspread. The
Panthers are not devoid of talent. Julius Peppers is an elite defensive end.
Linebacker Jon Beason is a candidate for defensive rookie of the year. Steve
Smith remains a dangerous playmaker. After fiddling around with totally
ineffective David Carr, Panthers coach John Fox fully realizes 44-year-old
Vinny Testaverde gives his team the best opportunity to win.The Panthers
had no confidence when the battered Carr was under center.They have a
much better attitude and downfield threat with Testaverde. Smith plays better.
So do running backs DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams. One reason
why the Panthers play better on the road is less pressure.The onus is
on Jacksonville. Don?t be surprised if the Jaguars don?t respond well this
week. Jacksonville played well at Indianapolis last Sunday, but still lost.That
defeat, in all probability, ended the Jaguars?AFC South Division title hopes.
The Jaguars have a key road tilt next week at Pittsburgh.This interconference
matchup isn?t big on their radar screen. CAROLINA 24-14.
***BEST BET
*Green Bay over Oakland by 27
The combination of Green Bay having four extra days to game-plan and get
healthy, the Raiders coming into cold weather and drawing an early start
time puts us in the Packers? corner. Brett Favre should be fine to start, but
even if he isn?t the Packers have enough to cover this spread with Aaron
Rodgers.The Raiders entered Week 13 with the worst run defense in the
league.The Packers are particularly tough when they can get their ground
attack going, which makes their play-action passes and frequent slant patterns
even more effective. The Raiders have a decent secondary, but not
nearly enough depth to cover Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and rookie
James Jones. Green Bay is 3-0 SU and ATS versus AFC West teams this season.
Favre played his worst game of the season last Thursday against Dallas.
So did the Packers? defense. Some of this, of course,was because of Dallas,
the class of the NFC so far. But some also was injury-related.More than likely
the Packers will get back their two key defensive players that didn?t play
against the Cowboys, cornerback Charles Woodson and pass rusher Kabeer
Gbaja-Biamila. Justin Fargas has been running well for the Raiders, but the
team still turns the ball over too much (26 giveaways) and commits too
many penalties to hang with an elite team like the Packers at such a tough
road venue. The Raiders? quarterback situation consists of Daunte
Culpepper,who isn?t 100 percent and still doesn?t have a full grasp of the
offense, perennial backup Josh McCown and rookie JaMarcus Russell, who
is just beginning to get his feet wet. The Packers are out for redemption
after a rare poor showing. They are a well-coached, fundamentally sound
team with plenty of big-play ability.The Raiders have yet to exhibit any of
these traits. GREEN BAY 37-10.
GOLD SHEET -CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF
11 *GREEN BAY over Oakland ***** I THINK THEY HAVE LOSY ONLY ONE 11* IN THE LAST 2 YEARS!!!!
Late Score Forecast:
*GREEN BAY 38 - OAKLAND 16
With early reports indicating Brett Favre will be ready to start after being felled at Dallas, and with other G.B. walking
wounded (including former Raider CB Charles Woodson) benefitting from extra time off, must lay the lumber.
Raiders don?t stop the run on the road (198 ypg the last 4), and RB Ryan Grant (588 YR; only four starts) a godsend
for G.B. G.B. has covered 12 of its last 16 games.
10* ST. LOUIS over *CINCINNATI
Late Score Forecast:
ST. LOUIS 27 - *Cincinnati 22
St. Louis won?t make the playoffs after its 0-8 start, but the Rams have regained their confidence with 3 wins in their
last 4 games, as RB Steven Jackson again healthy, setting up the Rams? explosive WRs. While Cincy still has scary
names on offense, CKO insiders report many in the Bengal locker room have become dispirited after the team?s
many disappointments TY.
THE GOLD SHEET
*******KEY RELEASES*******
JACKSONVILLE by 21 over Carolina
TENNESSEE by 10 over San Diego
OVER THE TOTAL in the Oakland-Green Bay game
Northcoast
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Star Jacksonville 37-16
3 Star San Diego 27-21
2 Star Clevand 30-17
2 Star N Y Giants +24-20
3* miami / buff under 36 2/3
3* pats / jags over 38
3* SD / Tenn over 41
2* minny / sf over 40
2* oak / gb over 42
Pointwise
NFL KEY RELEASES
MINNESOTA over San Francisco RATING: 2
SEATTLE over Arizona RATING: 3
TENNESSEE over San Diego RATING: 4
CAROLINA over Jacksonville RATING: 5
CLEVELAND over New York Jets RATING: 5
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
5★ BEST BET
Carolina over JACKSONVILLE by 3
Jags return home off close-call loss against Indianapolis while
Panthers take to the road after romping past the 49ers last
Sunday. The major challenge at hand for Jack Del Rio?s club
will be in attempting to become the fi rst Jacksonville squad
in team history to bring home the bacon as a favorite in
games after taking on the mighty Colts (0-6 ATS). Meanwhile,
Carolina dresses up as a dog knowing they are 14-2-1 ATS as
road dogs against a foe off a loss. They are also 13-2 ATS as
road dogs in December. Toss in our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE
WEEK (page 2) and you have the makings of a live dog taking
on a dead favorite. We?ll take live over dead, every time.
4★ BEST BET
PHILADELPHIA over NY Giants by 13
Rematch of two division rivals that found the Eagles dropping
a 16-3 verdict earlier this season in New York as -2.5 point
favorites. In that loss Philly held the Giants to a season-low 212
yards, yet lost when they managed a season-low 190 yards of
offense in the contest. Andy Reid has been solid in revenge in
his NFL career, especially in division games (18-7-1). And he?s at
his best in revengers when taking on a sub .700 division foe as
his 17-5-1 ATS mark confi rms. Toss in the ?Black-n-Blue Factor?
(winning teams on the road the game after facing the Bears
are 1-7 ATS these past two seasons) and suddenly the Giants
look like a rotten apple ready to be tossed, especially off last
week?s dramatic comeback win over Chicago.
3★ BEST BET
Arizona over SEATTLE by 6
Rather quietly the Seahawks have strung together a 4-0
SUATS streak and are suddenly riding high atop the NFC West
division. They can salt the Cardinals away with a win here
today, on a home fi eld where they?ve won 21 of their last 25
games. Added incentive comes from a 3-point loss at Arizona
on Week Two this season. Before you think about putting your
hard earned cabbage on Seattle, we suggest you take a long
look at the rest of the salad bar. For openers Arizona is 5-0
SUATS as a dog against an opponent off a SUATS win. They?re
also 9-0 ATS as dogs versus a division foe off a SUATS win. Toss
in Seattle?s 1-7 ATS mark at home in games off a double-digit
SU dog win and you now have a bountiful plate full of fi xins?
that will likely require a doggie bag to go!
NORTHCOAST POWERPLAYS
4* JAX 30 CAR 12
4* SEATTLE 28 ARIZ 19
4* GB 37 OAKLAND 17
3* DALLAS 38 DET 21
3* MINNY 30 SF 15
