Jeff Benton
Sunday's early NFL winners ...
30 Dime: JAGUARS (minus the points vs. Panthers)
10 Dime 6-Point Teaser: BILLS & PACKERS ... NOTE: On this play, you want to tease the Bills and Packers down 6 points. So you should be laying around 1 point with Buffalo and 3 1/2 to 4 points with Green Bay, depending on the numbers out there. Both plays are paired together like a parlay, but this is NOT a parlay .. it's a teaser, so make sure you bet it as such!
Jaguars
It seems awkward to say we?re getting ?value? with the Jaguars in this game, seeing as they?re laying double digits, but the fact of the matter is, we are. Imagine what this spread would be had Jacksonville pulled off the upset at Indy last week (which some might say it should have) and the Panthers not snapped their losing skid with a win over the god-awful Niners last week. We?d probably be looking at two touchdowns, maybe more.
The fact of the matter is, this is a major, major mismatch. Prior to last week?s 31-17 win over the 49ers, the Panthers had lost five straight games both straight-up and against the number, and they were only competitive in one of those losses, a 20-13 home setback to Joey Harrington and the Falcons. Otherwise, Carolina lost 31-7 to Indy (home), 20-7 to Tennessee (road), 31-17 to Green Bay (road) and 31-6 to New Orleans (home).
With the possible exception of the Packers, none of those other teams are in Jacksonville?s league. Even with the tough loss to the Colts last week, the Jags are 8-4 SU and ATS this season, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. And if you take away a 29-7 home loss to Indy on a Monday night in mid-October ? when star QB David Garrard was knocked out with an injury in the first quarter ? and here?s what the Jags have done at home: 36-14 rout of Buffalo, 37-17 rout of Houston and 24-17 win over San Diego in a game that wasn?t nearly as close as that score suggests.
Speaking of Garrard, the guy is playing out of his mind this season, completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 1,883 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT, which he threw last week against the Colts. His 104.7 QB rating is third-best in the NFL behind Brady and Romo! And with a strong running game (140 rush yards per game) behind Garrard with Taylor and Jones-Drew, the Jags? offense is extremely multi-dimensional ? which is why they?ve scored 24, 24, 28, 24, 36 and 25 points in their last six games!
The Panther?s offense? Well, it continues to be led by the corpse known as Vinny Testaverde. And prior to last week?s 31-point output against lowly San Francisco, Carolina had scored a grand total of 50 points in five games!
Guys, Jacksonville, which is on a 4-0 ATS run as a favorite, will bounce back in a big way today, destroy the Panthers and serve notice once again that they?re a team to be reckoned with come playoff time.
6-point Teaser: Bills & Packers
To repeat, here?s what I want you to do with this play: You take the Bills and tease their number down six points, so you should be laying around 1 point, while teasing the Packers? number down to about 3 1/2 or 4 points. You put those to plays together in one bet.
Now for a little analysis on both:
BILLS: Pretty simple, here. We basically just need Buffalo to win the game. And considering this one is going to be played in the cold and snow of upstate New York, do you see the 0-12 Dolphins finally getting off the schneid here? I don?t. Hell, the Dolphins haven?t scored an offensive touchdown since the very last play of the third quarter four games ago against the Bills (which Buffalo won 13-10), and they?ve managed just 40 total points the last five weeks. Also, even when they were good, the Dolphins never played well in Buffalo, as they?re 6-14 in their last 20 trips to Ralph Wilson Stadium going back to Dan Marino?s heydey in 1987, including three straight losses the last three years. Finally, the Bills are 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games. The three losses? To the Cowboys, Patriots and Jags, three of the five best teams in the league. Buffalo?s not losing this game, guys, not in bad weather and not against a Miami squad that?s totally snakebit.
PACKERS: Brett Favre practiced on Friday and all indications are he?s going to start and play the entire way today. But even if he?s not 100 percent, I still don?t see how Green Bay doesn?t win this game by more than four points. Not only are they 10-2 (while the Raiders are 4-8), but the Packers? last five wins have come by margins of 11, 14, 34, 11 and 6 points in games against the Lions, Panthers, Vikings, Chiefs and Broncos. They?re also 4-1-1 ATS as a favorite this season. As for the Raiders, yes, they?ve looked decent the last two weeks, but they beat the Chiefs (on the road) and the Broncos (at home), two teams that are in the toilet right now. Now they have to play an angry and well-rested Packers team ? Green Bay has been idle for 10 days ? and do so in what is expected to be cold, inclement weather. Good luck. In the end, I see the Packers? defense (not Favre) dominating this contest and forcing multiple turnovers from whomever lines up under center for Oakland. Green Bay by at least a touchdown.