SUPER BOWL SUNDAY: FEB. 3RD 2008
- Thread starter GIANTS007
- Start date
WINNING POINTS
New England over N.Y. Giants by 17 (at Glendale, AZ)
Eighteen times New England has been challenged this season and 18 times
they have pulled through. No doubt the Patriots are a team for the ages with
their record-breaking offense,Tom Brady setting the mark for most touchdown
passes in a year and Randy Moss breaking the wide receiver record for scores
in a season. But the Patriots also have gotten lucky recently. First they drew a
crippled San Diego in the AFC championship game and were able to win
despite three interceptions by Brady.Now they get the New York Giants in the
Super Bowl.The Patriots are going to put up a lot of points on a fast track in
Arizona.The Packers might have been able to keep up with them with Brett
Favre and his outstanding receiver group.The Giants don?t have nearly that
kind of firepower. The Giants are a banged-up, courageous group of overachievers
that has won a record 10 straight road games in a season, including
three straight away playoff games as underdogs. The Giants defeated Tampa
Bay, one of the weakest playoff entries in years, caught a flat Dallas squad and
then drew Green Bay in frigid weather conditions that evened things up
between the two teams. However, now they?re stepping way up in class.This
isn?t going to be a close three-point game like it was at Giants Stadium on Dec.
29 when the Patriots had to come from 12 points down in the second half to
pull out a 38-35 victory.This game occurs under totally different mental and
physical conditions.While it?s true the Patriots have covered only two of their
past 10 games and one out of their last eight, these circumstances are entirely
different.The Patriots are a precision passing team.They?ve been playing in
cold weather, which has affected their attack. Brady should have no problem
nullifying the Giants? fierce pass rush with quick, short drops under what
should be perfect weather conditions in the desert.The Giants? beat-up secondary
can?t contend with Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, Benjamin
Watson,Kevin Faulk out of the backfield and all the other weapons Brady has,
including running back Laurence Maroney. Cornerbacks Sam Madison,Aaron
Ross and Kevin Dockery, who missed the Packers game, are all dealing with
injuries. It?s not a fluke the Patriots were the greatest scoring team in NFL history.
New England ranked first in offense, averaging 411.3 yards per contest.
The Patriots also were No. 1 in scoring, averaging 36.8 points during the regular
season.They scored a record 589 points. Even if the Giants try doubleteaming
Moss, who hauled in a record 23 touchdown passes, their safeties
aren?t strong enough in coverage to make a difference. The Giants are just
happy to reach the Super Bowl. It?s been a remarkable run.They are to be
applauded.The Patriots, on the other hand, are Super Bowl pros having won
three previous ones, while reaching five AFC title games during the last seven
years. Eli Manning would have to play the game of his life for the Giants to
have a shot.We don?t see that happening. Bill Belichick is a defensive genius.
Give him two weeks to prepare and he can devise the right defense for any
type of offense. Manning deserves credit for playing up to his abilities during
the post-season, but keep in mind opposing defenses were geared to stop the
run and let Manning try to beat them. He did that by being efficient and not
throwing interceptions. Manning has been able to go with the flow and manage
during the playoff rather than make huge plays. He?s averaged 200 yards
passing in the three playoff games.Now his role is going to change,where he?ll
need to be a feared playmaker. Manning has two decent running backs,
Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, and an outstanding wide receiver,
Plaxico Burress.Whether Burress,bothered by an ankle injury nearly the entire
season, is 100 percent remains to be seen. However, Manning?s other targets
are an over-the-hill 33-year-old Amani Toomer and raw Steve Smith.The loss of
star tight end Jeremy Shockey is difficult to replace. Manning lacks a reliable
third target.Brady has multiple options.The Chargers couldn?t stretch the field
with their great tight end, Antonio Gates, rendered practically immobile
because of a dislocated toe.That?s what you need to do to have a shot against
the Patriots.New England?s defense can?t match its offense, but it is solid and
extremely well-coached. New England yielded an average of 17.1 points per
game.The Patriots have some age, but veterans Junior Seau, Rodney Harrison
and Co. will be helped by the two week interval. Because Belichick has good
cover cornerbacks, he can unload every blitz imaginable against the immobile
Manning. NEW ENGLAND 38-21.
OVER/UNDER: The Super Bowl total often is jacked up by the oddsmaker,
anticipating public money to be on the ?over.?That?s probably going to be the
case here. Still, you have to figure this is going to be a high-scoring game, just
like the team?s first meeting when 73 points were scored.The Patriots are 10-
4-1 to the ?over? in their last 15 games as a favorite of 10 _ or more points.New
England went above the total in 10 of its first 12 games this season until the
weather started turning bad.This matchup is going to be in ideal conditions.
Brady should have little trouble picking apart a vulnerable, beat-up Giants secondary.
The Giants have gone ?under? in four of their last five games as a road
underdog.The Giants would like to keep the ball away from Brady by establishing
an effective ground attack. Belichick is no fool. He?ll be having his
defense geared to take away the run, forcing the Giants to pass more than perhaps
they would like.Super Bowl games often turn into blowouts when things
get out of hand because the team trailing has nothing to lose.That very well
could be the case here.
New England over N.Y. Giants by 17 (at Glendale, AZ)
Eighteen times New England has been challenged this season and 18 times
they have pulled through. No doubt the Patriots are a team for the ages with
their record-breaking offense,Tom Brady setting the mark for most touchdown
passes in a year and Randy Moss breaking the wide receiver record for scores
in a season. But the Patriots also have gotten lucky recently. First they drew a
crippled San Diego in the AFC championship game and were able to win
despite three interceptions by Brady.Now they get the New York Giants in the
Super Bowl.The Patriots are going to put up a lot of points on a fast track in
Arizona.The Packers might have been able to keep up with them with Brett
Favre and his outstanding receiver group.The Giants don?t have nearly that
kind of firepower. The Giants are a banged-up, courageous group of overachievers
that has won a record 10 straight road games in a season, including
three straight away playoff games as underdogs. The Giants defeated Tampa
Bay, one of the weakest playoff entries in years, caught a flat Dallas squad and
then drew Green Bay in frigid weather conditions that evened things up
between the two teams. However, now they?re stepping way up in class.This
isn?t going to be a close three-point game like it was at Giants Stadium on Dec.
29 when the Patriots had to come from 12 points down in the second half to
pull out a 38-35 victory.This game occurs under totally different mental and
physical conditions.While it?s true the Patriots have covered only two of their
past 10 games and one out of their last eight, these circumstances are entirely
different.The Patriots are a precision passing team.They?ve been playing in
cold weather, which has affected their attack. Brady should have no problem
nullifying the Giants? fierce pass rush with quick, short drops under what
should be perfect weather conditions in the desert.The Giants? beat-up secondary
can?t contend with Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, Benjamin
Watson,Kevin Faulk out of the backfield and all the other weapons Brady has,
including running back Laurence Maroney. Cornerbacks Sam Madison,Aaron
Ross and Kevin Dockery, who missed the Packers game, are all dealing with
injuries. It?s not a fluke the Patriots were the greatest scoring team in NFL history.
New England ranked first in offense, averaging 411.3 yards per contest.
The Patriots also were No. 1 in scoring, averaging 36.8 points during the regular
season.They scored a record 589 points. Even if the Giants try doubleteaming
Moss, who hauled in a record 23 touchdown passes, their safeties
aren?t strong enough in coverage to make a difference. The Giants are just
happy to reach the Super Bowl. It?s been a remarkable run.They are to be
applauded.The Patriots, on the other hand, are Super Bowl pros having won
three previous ones, while reaching five AFC title games during the last seven
years. Eli Manning would have to play the game of his life for the Giants to
have a shot.We don?t see that happening. Bill Belichick is a defensive genius.
Give him two weeks to prepare and he can devise the right defense for any
type of offense. Manning deserves credit for playing up to his abilities during
the post-season, but keep in mind opposing defenses were geared to stop the
run and let Manning try to beat them. He did that by being efficient and not
throwing interceptions. Manning has been able to go with the flow and manage
during the playoff rather than make huge plays. He?s averaged 200 yards
passing in the three playoff games.Now his role is going to change,where he?ll
need to be a feared playmaker. Manning has two decent running backs,
Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, and an outstanding wide receiver,
Plaxico Burress.Whether Burress,bothered by an ankle injury nearly the entire
season, is 100 percent remains to be seen. However, Manning?s other targets
are an over-the-hill 33-year-old Amani Toomer and raw Steve Smith.The loss of
star tight end Jeremy Shockey is difficult to replace. Manning lacks a reliable
third target.Brady has multiple options.The Chargers couldn?t stretch the field
with their great tight end, Antonio Gates, rendered practically immobile
because of a dislocated toe.That?s what you need to do to have a shot against
the Patriots.New England?s defense can?t match its offense, but it is solid and
extremely well-coached. New England yielded an average of 17.1 points per
game.The Patriots have some age, but veterans Junior Seau, Rodney Harrison
and Co. will be helped by the two week interval. Because Belichick has good
cover cornerbacks, he can unload every blitz imaginable against the immobile
Manning. NEW ENGLAND 38-21.
OVER/UNDER: The Super Bowl total often is jacked up by the oddsmaker,
anticipating public money to be on the ?over.?That?s probably going to be the
case here. Still, you have to figure this is going to be a high-scoring game, just
like the team?s first meeting when 73 points were scored.The Patriots are 10-
4-1 to the ?over? in their last 15 games as a favorite of 10 _ or more points.New
England went above the total in 10 of its first 12 games this season until the
weather started turning bad.This matchup is going to be in ideal conditions.
Brady should have little trouble picking apart a vulnerable, beat-up Giants secondary.
The Giants have gone ?under? in four of their last five games as a road
underdog.The Giants would like to keep the ball away from Brady by establishing
an effective ground attack. Belichick is no fool. He?ll be having his
defense geared to take away the run, forcing the Giants to pass more than perhaps
they would like.Super Bowl games often turn into blowouts when things
get out of hand because the team trailing has nothing to lose.That very well
could be the case here.
THE SPORTS REPORTER
RECOMMENDED
NEW ENGLAND over NY GIANTS by 6
[NY Giants, plus the points. It?s only one game, never overbet it.] Sports Reporter community:
You just won three straight NFL post-season Best Bets on the San Diego
Chargers. Where are you going next? ??We?re going to the Super Bowl!? Not with the
Chargers, but hey, that?s okay. They were a fun and profitable point-spread play while
they lasted. What do we have here? It looks very similar to the situation described last
week regarding New England. Bill Belichick is now the guy who Bill Belichick used to
beat. He is the big favorite who, if he continues to play the same way that got him here,
can be defended against in an opposing team?s effort to keep the game close and be in
it with a chance to win it at the end. Belichick?s own reputation and upwardly mobile path
was created that way 17 years ago in Super Bowl XXV against the Buffalo Bills, a landmark
game frequently referenced by us for the ultimate in offensive/defensive mesh --
being able to control the clock with and without the ball, taking away what a cocky offensive
opponent does best and forcing them to do something they wouldn?t necessarily
choose to do in order to avoid losing. Hey, Belichick was the guy whose defense beat Bill
Walsh-Joe Montana-Jerry Rice, and Jim Kelly-Thurman Thomas-Andre Reed within
seven days that season, supported by a no-name offense. He was the guy whose Patriots
were once 5-0 SU vs. Peyton Manning and the Colts, forcing Manning to become a more
patient passer, (and prompting the NFL to alter rules against defensive players which
now lead to cheap offensive gains via defensive penalties that have really cheapened
this sport). He was the guy who, with the 2001 New England underdogs, took down the
St. Louis Rams? Greatest Show on Turf at +14. That?s the Belichick you look forward to
betting on in the post-season: the big underdog who is forced to break with tendencies
and come up with a different, creative package against a supremely talented but stubborn
opponent, and who also has the ability to sell that package to a group of experienced
players smart enough to buy into it.
But that role is not available to him here. Belichick is now ? irony of ironies -- Mike Martz.
Lopsided early-season wins against a bunch of tomato cans and other teams in transitional
states (like the Chargers, who fell 38-14 at New England in Week 2), have created
not just a 18-0 SU record to be protected, but two-score point-spread differences.
This is the NFL, where margins of that size are usually unsustainable by virtue of the very
parity the NFL is designed to create. That axiom has been proven ? or appears to have
been proven ? in the 1-7 ATS exploits of bandwagon jumpers laying points on New
England in the last eight games played by the 18-0 SU Patriots. The spread failures and
narrower victory margins began against the Philadelphia Eagles, whose defensive coordinator
Jim Johnson is the guy who tutored current Giants? defensive coordinator Steve
Spagnuolo. The Eagles did their best to take away the deep pass from Tom Brady to
Randy Moss, changed defensive alignments, and pressured Tom Brady. Because
Philadelphia had some dynamic defensive personnel and was not a soft, lame-butt or
transitioning defense like the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills or Miami
Dolphins units that New England had feasted on earlier, they were able to play this way
and come close to winning. That was the ?13 catches by Wes Welker? game. If you?re
playing against New England, you want Wes Welker to catch 13 passes because his
yards per catch of 10.5 is 33% lower than Moss? ypc, and Moss caught three times as
many TD passes as Welker despite having 14 fewer receptions.
If Belichick is the one who must change anything to adapt to what the opponent is doing
? like running Laurence Maroney a season-high 22 to 26 times against the New York
Jets, and in both playoff wins against Jacksonville and San Diego ? then he is getting
away from the big pass plays that powered the Patriots to the early blowout wins that
earned them their inflated power rating. The Pats are 0-3 ATS in games with 22 or more
carries by Maroney.
Before the season, Tom Coughlin said that he wanted the Giants to play like the NBA?s
champion San Antonio Spurs. Steady, unspectacular, fundamentally sound, accountable
to themselves and their teammates, and with respect for the coaches. Luckily for them,
The Man Who Loves Himself, Tiki Barber, quit after last season and Jeremy Shockey, The
Most Overrated Tight End That Ever Lived, was injured and ?lost? for the season in Week
15. Note that the Giants are 5-0 ATS in the five games Shockey has missed. It?s good to
be doubly disease-free. Coughlin was on that 1990 New York Giants Super Bowl staff
with Belichick. He was coaching the no-name wide receivers Baker, Ingram and Manuel.
(Who?) He knows Belichick, he knows people who know Belichick. He knows that he has
the option of playing like Belichick used to play, and that Belichick knows as well as anyone
that if New York does play like Belichick used to play, then Belichick shouldn?t be a
14-point favorite in this game.
Spagnuolo replaced Tim Lewis as Giants? defensive coordinator after last season. The
last ?Lewis off? team was the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, who won the Super Bowl after
Lewis was canned after 2004 and replaced by Dick ******. Spagnuolo has two weeks
to consider and possibly practice 5- and 6-defensive back alignments to disrupt Tom
Brady?s timing. In other words, take a page from Belichick?s book. When Spagnuolo was
a defensive assistant in Philadelphia four years ago, the Eagles were ?3 in turnovers but
lost by only 3 points to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. While Terrell Owens had the kind
of monster receiving game that the Giants? Plaxico Burress just had against the Packers,
?New England handled frequent blitzes, Deion Branch caught four passes for 71 yards
on a series?? and, according to Branch, ?We did a great job of adjusting during the
game. It was physical. A lot of guys were bumped and bruised." So, is there really a
major on-field difference between then, and now?
The key to the whole game is for the Giants to not trail by two scores. Supported by
return units that secure good starting field position, New York is usually well-balanced
enough on offense to avoid that situation as long as turnovers are avoided, as they have
been so far in the ?07 post-season. But if a two-score Giants deficit materializes, a savvy
New England defense can gamble against and bait Eli Manning. Experienced gamblers
with a lead, vs. a still-young quarterback, would probably press their advantage and win
easily. So here?s hoping the Giants don?t get all ?Packer proud? and expose their secondary
to excessive, stubborn man coverage that allows big plays or big, cheap gains
via penalties. Make the Patriots work and sweat for their yards. New England averaged
24 first downs per game during the regular season, 24.5 in the two playoff wins. But in
games against opponents whose offenses averaged 22 first downs (Indianapolis), 20
(Philadelphia), 20 (NY Giants) and 20 (Jacksonville), the Patriots did not cover the spread.
Geez, if only Eli was capable of scrambling for a few first downs like Jeff Hostetler was,
the Giants would win this game outright. NEW ENGLAND, 30-24.
RECOMMENDED
NEW ENGLAND over NY GIANTS by 6
[NY Giants, plus the points. It?s only one game, never overbet it.] Sports Reporter community:
You just won three straight NFL post-season Best Bets on the San Diego
Chargers. Where are you going next? ??We?re going to the Super Bowl!? Not with the
Chargers, but hey, that?s okay. They were a fun and profitable point-spread play while
they lasted. What do we have here? It looks very similar to the situation described last
week regarding New England. Bill Belichick is now the guy who Bill Belichick used to
beat. He is the big favorite who, if he continues to play the same way that got him here,
can be defended against in an opposing team?s effort to keep the game close and be in
it with a chance to win it at the end. Belichick?s own reputation and upwardly mobile path
was created that way 17 years ago in Super Bowl XXV against the Buffalo Bills, a landmark
game frequently referenced by us for the ultimate in offensive/defensive mesh --
being able to control the clock with and without the ball, taking away what a cocky offensive
opponent does best and forcing them to do something they wouldn?t necessarily
choose to do in order to avoid losing. Hey, Belichick was the guy whose defense beat Bill
Walsh-Joe Montana-Jerry Rice, and Jim Kelly-Thurman Thomas-Andre Reed within
seven days that season, supported by a no-name offense. He was the guy whose Patriots
were once 5-0 SU vs. Peyton Manning and the Colts, forcing Manning to become a more
patient passer, (and prompting the NFL to alter rules against defensive players which
now lead to cheap offensive gains via defensive penalties that have really cheapened
this sport). He was the guy who, with the 2001 New England underdogs, took down the
St. Louis Rams? Greatest Show on Turf at +14. That?s the Belichick you look forward to
betting on in the post-season: the big underdog who is forced to break with tendencies
and come up with a different, creative package against a supremely talented but stubborn
opponent, and who also has the ability to sell that package to a group of experienced
players smart enough to buy into it.
But that role is not available to him here. Belichick is now ? irony of ironies -- Mike Martz.
Lopsided early-season wins against a bunch of tomato cans and other teams in transitional
states (like the Chargers, who fell 38-14 at New England in Week 2), have created
not just a 18-0 SU record to be protected, but two-score point-spread differences.
This is the NFL, where margins of that size are usually unsustainable by virtue of the very
parity the NFL is designed to create. That axiom has been proven ? or appears to have
been proven ? in the 1-7 ATS exploits of bandwagon jumpers laying points on New
England in the last eight games played by the 18-0 SU Patriots. The spread failures and
narrower victory margins began against the Philadelphia Eagles, whose defensive coordinator
Jim Johnson is the guy who tutored current Giants? defensive coordinator Steve
Spagnuolo. The Eagles did their best to take away the deep pass from Tom Brady to
Randy Moss, changed defensive alignments, and pressured Tom Brady. Because
Philadelphia had some dynamic defensive personnel and was not a soft, lame-butt or
transitioning defense like the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills or Miami
Dolphins units that New England had feasted on earlier, they were able to play this way
and come close to winning. That was the ?13 catches by Wes Welker? game. If you?re
playing against New England, you want Wes Welker to catch 13 passes because his
yards per catch of 10.5 is 33% lower than Moss? ypc, and Moss caught three times as
many TD passes as Welker despite having 14 fewer receptions.
If Belichick is the one who must change anything to adapt to what the opponent is doing
? like running Laurence Maroney a season-high 22 to 26 times against the New York
Jets, and in both playoff wins against Jacksonville and San Diego ? then he is getting
away from the big pass plays that powered the Patriots to the early blowout wins that
earned them their inflated power rating. The Pats are 0-3 ATS in games with 22 or more
carries by Maroney.
Before the season, Tom Coughlin said that he wanted the Giants to play like the NBA?s
champion San Antonio Spurs. Steady, unspectacular, fundamentally sound, accountable
to themselves and their teammates, and with respect for the coaches. Luckily for them,
The Man Who Loves Himself, Tiki Barber, quit after last season and Jeremy Shockey, The
Most Overrated Tight End That Ever Lived, was injured and ?lost? for the season in Week
15. Note that the Giants are 5-0 ATS in the five games Shockey has missed. It?s good to
be doubly disease-free. Coughlin was on that 1990 New York Giants Super Bowl staff
with Belichick. He was coaching the no-name wide receivers Baker, Ingram and Manuel.
(Who?) He knows Belichick, he knows people who know Belichick. He knows that he has
the option of playing like Belichick used to play, and that Belichick knows as well as anyone
that if New York does play like Belichick used to play, then Belichick shouldn?t be a
14-point favorite in this game.
Spagnuolo replaced Tim Lewis as Giants? defensive coordinator after last season. The
last ?Lewis off? team was the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, who won the Super Bowl after
Lewis was canned after 2004 and replaced by Dick ******. Spagnuolo has two weeks
to consider and possibly practice 5- and 6-defensive back alignments to disrupt Tom
Brady?s timing. In other words, take a page from Belichick?s book. When Spagnuolo was
a defensive assistant in Philadelphia four years ago, the Eagles were ?3 in turnovers but
lost by only 3 points to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. While Terrell Owens had the kind
of monster receiving game that the Giants? Plaxico Burress just had against the Packers,
?New England handled frequent blitzes, Deion Branch caught four passes for 71 yards
on a series?? and, according to Branch, ?We did a great job of adjusting during the
game. It was physical. A lot of guys were bumped and bruised." So, is there really a
major on-field difference between then, and now?
The key to the whole game is for the Giants to not trail by two scores. Supported by
return units that secure good starting field position, New York is usually well-balanced
enough on offense to avoid that situation as long as turnovers are avoided, as they have
been so far in the ?07 post-season. But if a two-score Giants deficit materializes, a savvy
New England defense can gamble against and bait Eli Manning. Experienced gamblers
with a lead, vs. a still-young quarterback, would probably press their advantage and win
easily. So here?s hoping the Giants don?t get all ?Packer proud? and expose their secondary
to excessive, stubborn man coverage that allows big plays or big, cheap gains
via penalties. Make the Patriots work and sweat for their yards. New England averaged
24 first downs per game during the regular season, 24.5 in the two playoff wins. But in
games against opponents whose offenses averaged 22 first downs (Indianapolis), 20
(Philadelphia), 20 (NY Giants) and 20 (Jacksonville), the Patriots did not cover the spread.
Geez, if only Eli was capable of scrambling for a few first downs like Jeff Hostetler was,
the Giants would win this game outright. NEW ENGLAND, 30-24.
POINTWISE
SUPER BOWL FACTS (In No Particular Order of Importance)
In the first 33 Super Bowls, the spread had come into play only 5 times, but the last 8
have seen 3 such instances: Tennessee (+7) losing 23-16 in Super Bowl XXXIV;
Carolina (+7) losing 32-29 in Super Bowl XXXVII, & Philadelphia (+7) losing 24-
21 in Super Bowl XXXIX. The underdog has gone 6-4-2 ATS in the last 12
Super Bowls. A highly unusual aspect of this year's game, is the amount of
common foes faced by both teams, with 11 of the Giants' 19 opponents also
playing the Patriots, & with 10 of New England's 18 foes taking on New York.
The Giants were 8-3 SU (7-4 ATS) against those squads, while the Patriots
were obviously 10-0 SU (6-4 ATS). The Giants have won a record 10 straight
road games, covering 9 of those 10, by 9.9 ppg ATS. The Pats covered
their first 8 games by 15.7 ppg ATS, with the average spread being minus 10.9
pts. But since then, they stand at just 2-8 vs the pts, with a combined negative
56 pts. The average spread in those 10 games was minus 15.8 pts! Patriots
selected for the Pro Bowl: QB Brady, WR Moss, OT Light, OG Mankins, C
Koppen, DT Wilfork, LB Vrabel, CB Samuel. Giants in the Pro Bowl: DE
Umenyiora. The Giants enter on a 5-0 spread run. The Patriots enter on an
0-5 spread slide. The team with the better spread record has gone 8-2 ATS
in the playoffs, with the only misses coming by ? pt in Jacksonville's win
over Pittsburgh (with a 1? pt line move the true culprit), & in New York's
win over Green Bay in -20 degree wind chill weather. The Patriots rank 1st
in 7 offensive categories, rank in the top 5 in 10 offensive categories, & in the
top 10 in 13 offensive categories. The Giants rank in the top 5 in 2 offensive
columns, & in the top 10 in 4 offensive columns. New England ranks in the
top 5 in 7 defensive categories, & in the top 10 in 12 defensive categories. NY
ranks in the top 5 in 5 defensive columns, & in the top 10 in 11 defensive
columns. Brady set an NFL record the year with 50 TD passes during the
regular season, with only 8 interceptions, as he compiled an NFL best 117.2
QB rating. He has thrown for 5 TDs in the playoffs, while setting a playoff
record for completion percentage (92.9) with an incredible 26-of-28 display vs
Jacksonville. But he threw 3 interceptions vs the Chargers, the most he has
thrown since being picked off that many times, by San Diego in LY's playoff win.
And his 1st quarter interception was the first of his career in the 1st quarter of
a playoff game. Manning entered the regular season finale with 19 TD
passes, along with 19 interceptions, with a QB rating of 71.0. But he has
since thrown for 8 touchdowns, with just a single pick, & that vs the likes
of the Pats, Bucs, Cowboys, & Packers. He is 53-of-85 (62.3%) for 602
yds, 4 TDs, & no interceptions in the playoffs. His 3-game stretch without
a pick is his longest of the season, as he had gone 2 straight games
without an INT just once. Patriot RB Maroney has four 100 RY efforts in his
last 5 games, including the exact same 122 yds in each playoff game, after
reaching the 100 RY plateau in only 1 of his first 10 games. The Giants' RB
combo of Jacobs & Bradshaw have run for 318 yds in the playoffs, with
5.0 & 8.3 ypr, respectively, during the regular season. New England WR
Moss set an NFL record with 23 TD catches during the regular season, along
with 98 catches. During the playoffs, he has just 2 catches, for 14 &18 yds.
But his teammate WR Welker has 18 catches in the playoffs (2 TDs), to go
along with his NFL-best 112 receptions during the regular season. The Giant
WR duo of Burress & Toomer combined for 129 catches in the regular
season, for 15 TDs. In their 1st 2 playoff games, Toomer had 11 catches
for 3 TDs, while Burress exploded vs the Packers, with a career high 11
catches for 154 yds. The Giants had a chance to derail the Patriots' shot at a
perfect 16-0 regular season, coming up just 3 pts short on the final week of the
season, as 13? pt dogs. The Patriots had a 36:18-23:42 time edge in that
one. The Giants fumbled it 5 times vs the Packers, but lost only 1. This year's
Patriot edition is the highest scoring team in history (589 regular season
pts). Brady is 14-2 SU in playoff games, but just 8-7-1 ATS. The Pats' 18
wins ties the '84 Niners, & '85 Bears for the most-ever in a season. Both
head coaches (Coughlin of the Giants, & Belichick of the Patriots), coached
under the legendary Bill Parcells. NY's 3 straight road wins in this year's
playoffs has only been done twice previously: by the '85 Patriots, & by
the '05 Steelers. The Pats were then routed, 46-10, by the Bears in the
Super Bowl, while Pitt eased by the Seahawks, 21-10. The Patriots are on
the verge of history, with their seemingly unstoppable offense, led by one of the
elite QBs of all time in Brady. But their invincibility (25.4 ppg edge in their first
10 games), has been tested with 4 wins of 4 pts or less. And their recent ATS
demise can be attributed to spreads bordering on the ridiculous. They are a
majestic force, to be sure. But the Giants didn't back off in their first meeting,
& have the pressure "D" to at least keep Manning in sight. And perhaps no one
knows the Patriots as well as does Eli's brother Peyton. New England's 3-0
Super Bowl run has been by 3, 3, & 3 pts. So why not another? Points the play.
PROPHECY: New England 26 - NEW YORK GIANTS 23 RATING: 3
SUPER BOWL FACTS (In No Particular Order of Importance)
In the first 33 Super Bowls, the spread had come into play only 5 times, but the last 8
have seen 3 such instances: Tennessee (+7) losing 23-16 in Super Bowl XXXIV;
Carolina (+7) losing 32-29 in Super Bowl XXXVII, & Philadelphia (+7) losing 24-
21 in Super Bowl XXXIX. The underdog has gone 6-4-2 ATS in the last 12
Super Bowls. A highly unusual aspect of this year's game, is the amount of
common foes faced by both teams, with 11 of the Giants' 19 opponents also
playing the Patriots, & with 10 of New England's 18 foes taking on New York.
The Giants were 8-3 SU (7-4 ATS) against those squads, while the Patriots
were obviously 10-0 SU (6-4 ATS). The Giants have won a record 10 straight
road games, covering 9 of those 10, by 9.9 ppg ATS. The Pats covered
their first 8 games by 15.7 ppg ATS, with the average spread being minus 10.9
pts. But since then, they stand at just 2-8 vs the pts, with a combined negative
56 pts. The average spread in those 10 games was minus 15.8 pts! Patriots
selected for the Pro Bowl: QB Brady, WR Moss, OT Light, OG Mankins, C
Koppen, DT Wilfork, LB Vrabel, CB Samuel. Giants in the Pro Bowl: DE
Umenyiora. The Giants enter on a 5-0 spread run. The Patriots enter on an
0-5 spread slide. The team with the better spread record has gone 8-2 ATS
in the playoffs, with the only misses coming by ? pt in Jacksonville's win
over Pittsburgh (with a 1? pt line move the true culprit), & in New York's
win over Green Bay in -20 degree wind chill weather. The Patriots rank 1st
in 7 offensive categories, rank in the top 5 in 10 offensive categories, & in the
top 10 in 13 offensive categories. The Giants rank in the top 5 in 2 offensive
columns, & in the top 10 in 4 offensive columns. New England ranks in the
top 5 in 7 defensive categories, & in the top 10 in 12 defensive categories. NY
ranks in the top 5 in 5 defensive columns, & in the top 10 in 11 defensive
columns. Brady set an NFL record the year with 50 TD passes during the
regular season, with only 8 interceptions, as he compiled an NFL best 117.2
QB rating. He has thrown for 5 TDs in the playoffs, while setting a playoff
record for completion percentage (92.9) with an incredible 26-of-28 display vs
Jacksonville. But he threw 3 interceptions vs the Chargers, the most he has
thrown since being picked off that many times, by San Diego in LY's playoff win.
And his 1st quarter interception was the first of his career in the 1st quarter of
a playoff game. Manning entered the regular season finale with 19 TD
passes, along with 19 interceptions, with a QB rating of 71.0. But he has
since thrown for 8 touchdowns, with just a single pick, & that vs the likes
of the Pats, Bucs, Cowboys, & Packers. He is 53-of-85 (62.3%) for 602
yds, 4 TDs, & no interceptions in the playoffs. His 3-game stretch without
a pick is his longest of the season, as he had gone 2 straight games
without an INT just once. Patriot RB Maroney has four 100 RY efforts in his
last 5 games, including the exact same 122 yds in each playoff game, after
reaching the 100 RY plateau in only 1 of his first 10 games. The Giants' RB
combo of Jacobs & Bradshaw have run for 318 yds in the playoffs, with
5.0 & 8.3 ypr, respectively, during the regular season. New England WR
Moss set an NFL record with 23 TD catches during the regular season, along
with 98 catches. During the playoffs, he has just 2 catches, for 14 &18 yds.
But his teammate WR Welker has 18 catches in the playoffs (2 TDs), to go
along with his NFL-best 112 receptions during the regular season. The Giant
WR duo of Burress & Toomer combined for 129 catches in the regular
season, for 15 TDs. In their 1st 2 playoff games, Toomer had 11 catches
for 3 TDs, while Burress exploded vs the Packers, with a career high 11
catches for 154 yds. The Giants had a chance to derail the Patriots' shot at a
perfect 16-0 regular season, coming up just 3 pts short on the final week of the
season, as 13? pt dogs. The Patriots had a 36:18-23:42 time edge in that
one. The Giants fumbled it 5 times vs the Packers, but lost only 1. This year's
Patriot edition is the highest scoring team in history (589 regular season
pts). Brady is 14-2 SU in playoff games, but just 8-7-1 ATS. The Pats' 18
wins ties the '84 Niners, & '85 Bears for the most-ever in a season. Both
head coaches (Coughlin of the Giants, & Belichick of the Patriots), coached
under the legendary Bill Parcells. NY's 3 straight road wins in this year's
playoffs has only been done twice previously: by the '85 Patriots, & by
the '05 Steelers. The Pats were then routed, 46-10, by the Bears in the
Super Bowl, while Pitt eased by the Seahawks, 21-10. The Patriots are on
the verge of history, with their seemingly unstoppable offense, led by one of the
elite QBs of all time in Brady. But their invincibility (25.4 ppg edge in their first
10 games), has been tested with 4 wins of 4 pts or less. And their recent ATS
demise can be attributed to spreads bordering on the ridiculous. They are a
majestic force, to be sure. But the Giants didn't back off in their first meeting,
& have the pressure "D" to at least keep Manning in sight. And perhaps no one
knows the Patriots as well as does Eli's brother Peyton. New England's 3-0
Super Bowl run has been by 3, 3, & 3 pts. So why not another? Points the play.
PROPHECY: New England 26 - NEW YORK GIANTS 23 RATING: 3
Phil Steele (from NORTHCOAST): NEW ENGLAND
*****This is their Super System play not a Northcoast pick.*****
SuperBowl Super System - Northcoast
Points Category
10.0 Award 10pts if a team has WON a Super Bowl in the past THREE years
8.0 Award 8pts to any team whose OPPONENT is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history
8.0 Award 8pts to any team that has allowed fewer defensive rushes
7.0 Award 7pts to the team with the better SU win/loss record
7.0 Award 7pts to the team with the most offensive rushes
5.0 Award 5pts to the team with the lower defensive rush average per carry
4.0 Award 4pts to the team that has the best net kick-punt TD returns
4.0 Award 4pts to the team with the better ATS record
4.0 Award 4pts to the team that has the superior NET penalty yards
3.5 Award 3.5pts to the team that has the best yards per pass attempt
3.5 Award 3.5pts to the team that has given up the fewer points
3.5 Award 3.5pts to the team that has allowed the fewest rushing TD's
3.0 Award 3pts to the team that has the most sacks
2.5 Award 2.5pts to the team with fewest offensive pass attempts
2.0 Award 2pts to the team that has the best NET punts (total) on the year
1.5 Award 1.5pts to the team with the best average per offensive rush
1.0 Award 1pt to the team with the best completion percentage
New England is the Super Bowl System Play
14 Point Play (Which is the 4th lowest Point play in the systems history)
*****This is their Super System play not a Northcoast pick.*****
SuperBowl Super System - Northcoast
Points Category
10.0 Award 10pts if a team has WON a Super Bowl in the past THREE years
8.0 Award 8pts to any team whose OPPONENT is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history
8.0 Award 8pts to any team that has allowed fewer defensive rushes
7.0 Award 7pts to the team with the better SU win/loss record
7.0 Award 7pts to the team with the most offensive rushes
5.0 Award 5pts to the team with the lower defensive rush average per carry
4.0 Award 4pts to the team that has the best net kick-punt TD returns
4.0 Award 4pts to the team with the better ATS record
4.0 Award 4pts to the team that has the superior NET penalty yards
3.5 Award 3.5pts to the team that has the best yards per pass attempt
3.5 Award 3.5pts to the team that has given up the fewer points
3.5 Award 3.5pts to the team that has allowed the fewest rushing TD's
3.0 Award 3pts to the team that has the most sacks
2.5 Award 2.5pts to the team with fewest offensive pass attempts
2.0 Award 2pts to the team that has the best NET punts (total) on the year
1.5 Award 1.5pts to the team with the best average per offensive rush
1.0 Award 1pt to the team with the best completion percentage
New England is the Super Bowl System Play
14 Point Play (Which is the 4th lowest Point play in the systems history)
WILD BILL
SUPER BOWL XLII
Giants +12 1/2 (5 units)
Over 53 1/2 (5 units)
6 1/2 pt teaser: Giants +19 & over 47 (5 units)
SUPER BOWL XLII
Giants +12 1/2 (5 units)
Over 53 1/2 (5 units)
6 1/2 pt teaser: Giants +19 & over 47 (5 units)
Matty O'Shea | NFL Total Triple-Dime Bet
102 NEP / 101 NYG Over 53.5 BetUS
Analysis: First of all, let me preface this play by saying that I believe the Tom Brady boot-gate saga is a Giant hoax (no pun intended), and the future Hall of Famer will be fine by the time this game kicks off. Now let's look at some very strong trends. The Patriots averaged 38.3 points per game when the temperature was higher than 40 degrees in the regular season, with the OVER going 8-3 in those games. They averaged nearly a touchdown less when the temperature was 40 or less, which obviously was the case for the most part down the stretch at home from December on when the UNDER went 4-0-1. In fact, the only OVER that cashed for New England since December 3rd came against the Giants at New York on December 29th. Now for the clincher: 8 of the last 10 same-season rematches in the Super Bowl have been higher scoring than the first meeting. While it may be hard to top that 38-35 victory for the Patriots, don't be surprised if they score 38 or more for the ninth time in 19 games to close out their perfect season. In fact, I'm banking on it in making the OVER my Triple Dime Super Bowl XLII Best Bet.
*****NFL RECORD: 16-32 ATS*****
BY THE LOOKS OF HIS RECORD- HE TAKES IT DEEP !!!!
102 NEP / 101 NYG Over 53.5 BetUS
Analysis: First of all, let me preface this play by saying that I believe the Tom Brady boot-gate saga is a Giant hoax (no pun intended), and the future Hall of Famer will be fine by the time this game kicks off. Now let's look at some very strong trends. The Patriots averaged 38.3 points per game when the temperature was higher than 40 degrees in the regular season, with the OVER going 8-3 in those games. They averaged nearly a touchdown less when the temperature was 40 or less, which obviously was the case for the most part down the stretch at home from December on when the UNDER went 4-0-1. In fact, the only OVER that cashed for New England since December 3rd came against the Giants at New York on December 29th. Now for the clincher: 8 of the last 10 same-season rematches in the Super Bowl have been higher scoring than the first meeting. While it may be hard to top that 38-35 victory for the Patriots, don't be surprised if they score 38 or more for the ninth time in 19 games to close out their perfect season. In fact, I'm banking on it in making the OVER my Triple Dime Super Bowl XLII Best Bet.
*****NFL RECORD: 16-32 ATS*****
BY THE LOOKS OF HIS RECORD- HE TAKES IT DEEP !!!!
Nick Parsons Total and Props
Good Luck Guys
Guaranteed Pick: Nick Parsons
Game: New York Giants at New England Patriots Feb 3 2008 6:20PM
Prediction: over
Reason: Having scored 35 points in their season-finale loss to New England, the Giants know they can move the ball on the Patriots. Moving the ball is not enough, though. Nor is kicking field goals. New York must reach the end zone several times. But, that should be a much easier task to accomplish right now as Eli Manning has been at his most accurate, playing the best football of his four-year career. His playoff numbers, particularly four touchdowns to no interceptions and a 99.2 rating, are worthy of brother Peyton, last year's Super Bowl MVP. RB?s Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are an almost impossible to stop 1, 2 punch and I expect more of the same on Super Sunday. Although they only scored 21 points in the AFC Championship game, obviously the Patriots are one of the best offensive teams in the history of the game. Relatively quiet in his first two-playoff games with New England, Randy Moss overwhelmed Giants cornerbacks and safeties in the last meeting. Moss had six receptions for 100 yards and two TDs as he broke Jerry Rice?s NFL mark with 23 touchdown catches. New England has had the total go ?over? the number in all four of their games vs. NFC East division opponents this season and the Giants have seen the total go above the number in three of four games they?ve played against AFC East Division opponents. With the added week of rest, I look for both teams to be firing on all cylinders as the defenses take the back seat to the offenses in this one; play on the OVER!
*******Bonus Side Play********************
New York simply doesn't lose on the road, and the Giants are the designated away team at University of Phoenix Stadium. They've won 10 straight away games, and they have outplayed all three opponents in the playoffs on both sides of the ball. Don't forget that they tested the Patriots on Dec. 29, even led by 12 points in the third quarter, and I believe all the pressure is on New England. It may come as a surprise to some when looking at these teams ATS trends over the last few weeks; New York is a perfect 5-0 ATS their last five games, while New England is 0-5 ATS their last five coming into Super Sunday. The Patriots are also just 2-4 ATS their last six vs. the Giants and I look for NEW YORK to apply just enough pressure on both sides of the ball to escape with another ATS victory!
*******Bonus Prop Plays********************
Manning vs. Brady-1st Half most passing: Eli Manning +30.5 passing yards ?116
In my first proposition I am suggesting a play on Eli Manning, (getting +30.5 passing yards, -116) to throw more passing yards than Tom Brady in the 1st Half. Brady has said he?s set and ready to go, however his high ankle sprain can?t simply be overlooked. I expect the Giants awesome defensive play to continue, and look for Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Fred Robbins and Antonio Pierce to have massive games and put pressure on New England?s pivot all day. Eli Manning has been at his most accurate, playing the best football of his four-year career. His playoff numbers -- particularly four touchdowns to no interceptions and a 99.2 rating -- are worthy of brother Peyton, last year's Super Bowl MVP. The combination of Manning?s near perfect play, coupled with the Giants awesome defensive line makes me recommend a play on: ELI MANNING +30.5 PASSING YARDS ?116, to out duel Brady in the 1st Half!
Total rushing yards made by Laurence Maroney: UNDER 81.5 rushing yards -121
In my second proposition wager I?m suggesting a play on Laurence Maroney to get: UNDER 81.5 total rushing yards ?121 for the game. Maroney has gotten a lot of attention over the last few weeks, but I?m expecting Bellichick to use a more balanced attack between the two backs in this game. I also expect the Patriots to throw the ball a lot in this game as well, as the speedy defensive line for the Giants should be able to effectively stop New England?s running game; play on MARONEY TO GET UNDER 81.5 TOTAL RUSHING YARDS!
Good Luck Guys
Guaranteed Pick: Nick Parsons
Game: New York Giants at New England Patriots Feb 3 2008 6:20PM
Prediction: over
Reason: Having scored 35 points in their season-finale loss to New England, the Giants know they can move the ball on the Patriots. Moving the ball is not enough, though. Nor is kicking field goals. New York must reach the end zone several times. But, that should be a much easier task to accomplish right now as Eli Manning has been at his most accurate, playing the best football of his four-year career. His playoff numbers, particularly four touchdowns to no interceptions and a 99.2 rating, are worthy of brother Peyton, last year's Super Bowl MVP. RB?s Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are an almost impossible to stop 1, 2 punch and I expect more of the same on Super Sunday. Although they only scored 21 points in the AFC Championship game, obviously the Patriots are one of the best offensive teams in the history of the game. Relatively quiet in his first two-playoff games with New England, Randy Moss overwhelmed Giants cornerbacks and safeties in the last meeting. Moss had six receptions for 100 yards and two TDs as he broke Jerry Rice?s NFL mark with 23 touchdown catches. New England has had the total go ?over? the number in all four of their games vs. NFC East division opponents this season and the Giants have seen the total go above the number in three of four games they?ve played against AFC East Division opponents. With the added week of rest, I look for both teams to be firing on all cylinders as the defenses take the back seat to the offenses in this one; play on the OVER!
*******Bonus Side Play********************
New York simply doesn't lose on the road, and the Giants are the designated away team at University of Phoenix Stadium. They've won 10 straight away games, and they have outplayed all three opponents in the playoffs on both sides of the ball. Don't forget that they tested the Patriots on Dec. 29, even led by 12 points in the third quarter, and I believe all the pressure is on New England. It may come as a surprise to some when looking at these teams ATS trends over the last few weeks; New York is a perfect 5-0 ATS their last five games, while New England is 0-5 ATS their last five coming into Super Sunday. The Patriots are also just 2-4 ATS their last six vs. the Giants and I look for NEW YORK to apply just enough pressure on both sides of the ball to escape with another ATS victory!
*******Bonus Prop Plays********************
Manning vs. Brady-1st Half most passing: Eli Manning +30.5 passing yards ?116
In my first proposition I am suggesting a play on Eli Manning, (getting +30.5 passing yards, -116) to throw more passing yards than Tom Brady in the 1st Half. Brady has said he?s set and ready to go, however his high ankle sprain can?t simply be overlooked. I expect the Giants awesome defensive play to continue, and look for Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Fred Robbins and Antonio Pierce to have massive games and put pressure on New England?s pivot all day. Eli Manning has been at his most accurate, playing the best football of his four-year career. His playoff numbers -- particularly four touchdowns to no interceptions and a 99.2 rating -- are worthy of brother Peyton, last year's Super Bowl MVP. The combination of Manning?s near perfect play, coupled with the Giants awesome defensive line makes me recommend a play on: ELI MANNING +30.5 PASSING YARDS ?116, to out duel Brady in the 1st Half!
Total rushing yards made by Laurence Maroney: UNDER 81.5 rushing yards -121
In my second proposition wager I?m suggesting a play on Laurence Maroney to get: UNDER 81.5 total rushing yards ?121 for the game. Maroney has gotten a lot of attention over the last few weeks, but I?m expecting Bellichick to use a more balanced attack between the two backs in this game. I also expect the Patriots to throw the ball a lot in this game as well, as the speedy defensive line for the Giants should be able to effectively stop New England?s running game; play on MARONEY TO GET UNDER 81.5 TOTAL RUSHING YARDS!
BEN BURNS
SUPER BOWL
PATRIOTS (-14 or better)
I'm laying the points with NEW ENGLAND. Early money has come in on the underdog Giants. I feel that move is a mistake though and really like the additional value which has now been provided on the favorite. The Patriots have the more complete team and I believe that they are stronger on both sides of the ball. Note that the Patriots outscored opponents by a 35.7 to 17 margin this season while the Giants only outscored their opponents by a 23.2 to 21.2 margin. In addition to having a ton of "big game experience," the Patriots also have both a much better quarterback and a significantly better coach. I believe that the coaching factor becomes particularly relevant when teams are playing with an extra week of rest in between games. Note that the Patriots are a respectable 14-9 SU the last 23 times (4-0 the last four) that they played with two or more weeks of rest in between games. During the same stretch, the Giants have gone just 5-14 SU (6-12-1 ATS) when playing with two or more week's worth of rest between games. The Giants almost never see over/under lines this high. However, its worth mentioning that the Patriots are a perfect 11-0 SU the last 11 times that they played a game with an over/under line of 49.5 or greater, going a profitable 8-3 against the number. The Patriots, who have won 11 of their last 12 against teams from the NFC, are also a lucrative 52-30-7 ATS (63.4%) the past 15 years when playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season. During the same stretch, the Giants were just 33-39-2 ATS when playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, going just 23-51 SU. The past two Super Bowls have both been decided by double-digits. I feel that this year's game is an even bigger mismatch than either of those matchups and I expect a convincing victory for the history-making Patriots.
SUPER BOWL
PATRIOTS (-14 or better)
I'm laying the points with NEW ENGLAND. Early money has come in on the underdog Giants. I feel that move is a mistake though and really like the additional value which has now been provided on the favorite. The Patriots have the more complete team and I believe that they are stronger on both sides of the ball. Note that the Patriots outscored opponents by a 35.7 to 17 margin this season while the Giants only outscored their opponents by a 23.2 to 21.2 margin. In addition to having a ton of "big game experience," the Patriots also have both a much better quarterback and a significantly better coach. I believe that the coaching factor becomes particularly relevant when teams are playing with an extra week of rest in between games. Note that the Patriots are a respectable 14-9 SU the last 23 times (4-0 the last four) that they played with two or more weeks of rest in between games. During the same stretch, the Giants have gone just 5-14 SU (6-12-1 ATS) when playing with two or more week's worth of rest between games. The Giants almost never see over/under lines this high. However, its worth mentioning that the Patriots are a perfect 11-0 SU the last 11 times that they played a game with an over/under line of 49.5 or greater, going a profitable 8-3 against the number. The Patriots, who have won 11 of their last 12 against teams from the NFC, are also a lucrative 52-30-7 ATS (63.4%) the past 15 years when playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season. During the same stretch, the Giants were just 33-39-2 ATS when playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, going just 23-51 SU. The past two Super Bowls have both been decided by double-digits. I feel that this year's game is an even bigger mismatch than either of those matchups and I expect a convincing victory for the history-making Patriots.
Does anyne have John Ryan's Super Bowl play?
Does anyne have John Ryan's Super Bowl play?
NFL
Ryan's 15* Super Bowl play
**Here is Ryan?s strongest graded Super Bowl game ever and it that ranks among the strongest 25 plays produced by his Ai Simulator spanning 17 seasons. He has won 5 of the past 6 SB plays.
Thanks and good luck to all.............
Does anyne have John Ryan's Super Bowl play?
NFL
Ryan's 15* Super Bowl play
**Here is Ryan?s strongest graded Super Bowl game ever and it that ranks among the strongest 25 plays produced by his Ai Simulator spanning 17 seasons. He has won 5 of the past 6 SB plays.
Thanks and good luck to all.............
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
New England over NY GIANTS by 10
Hide your heart, girls? Eli?s coming. Forget about Peyton. Suddenly he?s
old news. Eli Manning and the record-setting Giants take on Tom Brady
and his record-setting 18-0 Patriots in SB XLII. New England?s quest for
perfection is superseded by the AFC?s dominance in the Super Bowl, where they?ve
captured 8 of the last 10 games. In fact, they?ve also held the upper hand over the
NFC throughout this decade, posting a 246-193-1 SU & 233-192-15 record entering
this season, including 66-8 SU & 44-28-2 ATS as favorites of seven or more points.
This year, however, the NFC manned up and battled its brethren toe-to-toe, going
32-32 SU ? including 17-15 SU & 15-15-2 ATS with teams that sported a record of
.500 or better. Hmmm. Before we knee-jerk on that thought alone, let?s closely
examine what it is that each team brings to the table in this contest.
In truth, New England?s season was galvanized when Bill Belichick was called out in
the ?Spygate? scandal. It served as the impetus they were looking for, rallying around
the incident and bursting out of the gates with eight wins and covers during the first
half of the season (average win margin of 25.5 PPG while beating the spread by
+117.5 points). Since then, while still managing to remain undefeated, they enter the
Super Bowl on a dismal 2-8 ATS slide. In the process, NE's average win margin
dipped to 12.2 PPG and its net-spread fell faster than Britney?s panties at a posh
Vegas club, closing out -40.5 points. Not exactly endearing numbers for a team
installed as two touchdown favorites vs. a dog that refuses to believe it doesn?t belong!
The Giants' incredible run to Glendale occurred despite an 0-2 start (losses to Dallas
and Green Bay). Since then they have won an NFL record 10 straight road games,
going 9-1 ATS while beating the spread +83.5 points in those games away from the
Big Apple. They also handed Green Bay QB Brett Favre his first-ever home loss in
games from December out against an opponent off a win in which the Packers
entered with a win percentage of .640 or more (now 17-1 and 16-1-1 ATS). In addition,
the G-Men become only the third team in NFL history to make the ?big game? by
winning three consecutive playoff games on the road. They?ll have two weeks to refuel
while dissecting a season-ending 38-35 loss to the Pats (as 13.5 point home dogs).
From a head coaching perspective, it?s hard to refute Bill Belichick?s sterling record especially in the post-season: 15-3 SU (12-0 as chalk), but only 9-8-1 ATS. And Over/
Under fans should note that his teams are 7-11 UNDER in the playoffs. For what it?s
worth, Belichick is 13-1 SU in his career in games when the Over/Under total in the
game is posted at 49 or higher. He also owns top-notch numbers against NFC foes
as a head coach in the NFL, going 36-15 SU & 30-19-2 ATS against the confederates.
Inside those numbers is a 14-5 SUATS mark when his team is off an ATS loss and
also a 25-10 SUATS record if they scored less than 28 points in their previous game.
His counterpart, Tom Coughlin, answers with a bevy of good numbers, too. Included
is a 6-2 ATS mark as a dog of 11-plus points and a nifty 17-11 ATS log in games off
a SU dog win (6-1 SUATS the last seven). Coughlin is also a very dangerous 8-7 SU
& 9-4-2 ATS in his NFL career in games against undefeated teams!
Sure-shot Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady?s numbers speak for themselves. He?ll enter
SBXLII with a career record of 100-25 SU & 76-45-4 ATS (but only 11-11 ATS as
a double-digit favorite). Included is a brilliant 14-2 SU mark in the post-season with
three Super Bowl rings to show for his efforts. Giant QB Manning is just beginning
to create his own legacy. As a starter in the NFL, Eli is 32-27 SU & 35-24 ATS, but
19-9-1 ATS away from home. He?s also a noteworthy 29-12-1 ATS in games after
the Giants scored more than 17 points the previous game.
In closing, some SUPER BOWL FACTS to ponder: the last twelve Super Bowls have
seen the favorite go 9-3 SU & 4-6-2 ATS; the last 14 favorites to score 30 or less points
are 2-11-1 ATS; teams who score 27 or more points are 23-1 SU & 21-2-1 ATS; teams
who score less than 20 points are 0-23 SU & 3-19-1 ATS. And, since 1980, teams
who won a playoff game in overtime are 5-10 SU & 7-8 ATS in their next game,
including 0-2 SU & ATS if the next game had Roman Numerals attached to it.
Whew. A lot of numbers to digest, to be sure. The bottom line is that the pressure
is squarely on New England to become the first team since the 1972 Dolphins to
escape a season unscathed from start to finish. The problem is they are leaking oil
(pointspread) badly while their opponent is super-surging. Yes, Eli?s coming and
the cards say... a broken heart for Giants? fans. Brady gets his fourth ring while
Manning takes home the experience and a pocketful of cash. Enjoy the game?
A few number to note
Patriots are 2-8 ATS their last 10
Their average margin of victory fell from 25.5 ppg top 12.2 in the last half of the season
The Giants won ten straight road games going 9-1 ATS while beating the spread by +83.5 points in that time away from NY.
Bellichick is 15-3 SU (12-0 as chalk) but only 9-8-1 ATS in the playoffs
And 7-11 under in the playoffs
He is 13-1 SU when the posted otal is 49 or higher
He is also 36-15 SU 30-19-2 ATS agaionst thr NFC
14-5 if of an ATS loss and 25-10 SUATS if they scored less than 28 in their previous game
Coughlin is 6-2 ATS as an 11 plus point underdog and 17-11 off a straight up dog win(6-1 SUATS last 7)
He is also 8-8 SU and 9-4-2 ATS against undefeated teams
Brady is 100-25 SU and 76-45-4 ATS(but only 11-11 as a double digit favorite)including a brilliant 14-2 SU mark in the post season
Eli Manning as a starter is 32-27 SU and 35-24 ATS but 19-9-1 away from home
Also, he is 29-12-1 in gamwes after they score more than 17
Super Bowl facts to ponder
Super Bowl favorites are 9-3 SU but only 4-6-2 the last 12 years
The last 14 favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-11-1 ATS
Teams who score 27 or more points are 23-1 SU and 21-2-1 ATS
Teams who score less than 20 points 0-23 SU and 3-19-1ATS
Since 1980 teams who won a playoff game in OT are 5-10 SU and 7-8ATS in the net game including 0-2 SUATS if the next game was a SB
New England over NY GIANTS by 10
Hide your heart, girls? Eli?s coming. Forget about Peyton. Suddenly he?s
old news. Eli Manning and the record-setting Giants take on Tom Brady
and his record-setting 18-0 Patriots in SB XLII. New England?s quest for
perfection is superseded by the AFC?s dominance in the Super Bowl, where they?ve
captured 8 of the last 10 games. In fact, they?ve also held the upper hand over the
NFC throughout this decade, posting a 246-193-1 SU & 233-192-15 record entering
this season, including 66-8 SU & 44-28-2 ATS as favorites of seven or more points.
This year, however, the NFC manned up and battled its brethren toe-to-toe, going
32-32 SU ? including 17-15 SU & 15-15-2 ATS with teams that sported a record of
.500 or better. Hmmm. Before we knee-jerk on that thought alone, let?s closely
examine what it is that each team brings to the table in this contest.
In truth, New England?s season was galvanized when Bill Belichick was called out in
the ?Spygate? scandal. It served as the impetus they were looking for, rallying around
the incident and bursting out of the gates with eight wins and covers during the first
half of the season (average win margin of 25.5 PPG while beating the spread by
+117.5 points). Since then, while still managing to remain undefeated, they enter the
Super Bowl on a dismal 2-8 ATS slide. In the process, NE's average win margin
dipped to 12.2 PPG and its net-spread fell faster than Britney?s panties at a posh
Vegas club, closing out -40.5 points. Not exactly endearing numbers for a team
installed as two touchdown favorites vs. a dog that refuses to believe it doesn?t belong!
The Giants' incredible run to Glendale occurred despite an 0-2 start (losses to Dallas
and Green Bay). Since then they have won an NFL record 10 straight road games,
going 9-1 ATS while beating the spread +83.5 points in those games away from the
Big Apple. They also handed Green Bay QB Brett Favre his first-ever home loss in
games from December out against an opponent off a win in which the Packers
entered with a win percentage of .640 or more (now 17-1 and 16-1-1 ATS). In addition,
the G-Men become only the third team in NFL history to make the ?big game? by
winning three consecutive playoff games on the road. They?ll have two weeks to refuel
while dissecting a season-ending 38-35 loss to the Pats (as 13.5 point home dogs).
From a head coaching perspective, it?s hard to refute Bill Belichick?s sterling record especially in the post-season: 15-3 SU (12-0 as chalk), but only 9-8-1 ATS. And Over/
Under fans should note that his teams are 7-11 UNDER in the playoffs. For what it?s
worth, Belichick is 13-1 SU in his career in games when the Over/Under total in the
game is posted at 49 or higher. He also owns top-notch numbers against NFC foes
as a head coach in the NFL, going 36-15 SU & 30-19-2 ATS against the confederates.
Inside those numbers is a 14-5 SUATS mark when his team is off an ATS loss and
also a 25-10 SUATS record if they scored less than 28 points in their previous game.
His counterpart, Tom Coughlin, answers with a bevy of good numbers, too. Included
is a 6-2 ATS mark as a dog of 11-plus points and a nifty 17-11 ATS log in games off
a SU dog win (6-1 SUATS the last seven). Coughlin is also a very dangerous 8-7 SU
& 9-4-2 ATS in his NFL career in games against undefeated teams!
Sure-shot Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady?s numbers speak for themselves. He?ll enter
SBXLII with a career record of 100-25 SU & 76-45-4 ATS (but only 11-11 ATS as
a double-digit favorite). Included is a brilliant 14-2 SU mark in the post-season with
three Super Bowl rings to show for his efforts. Giant QB Manning is just beginning
to create his own legacy. As a starter in the NFL, Eli is 32-27 SU & 35-24 ATS, but
19-9-1 ATS away from home. He?s also a noteworthy 29-12-1 ATS in games after
the Giants scored more than 17 points the previous game.
In closing, some SUPER BOWL FACTS to ponder: the last twelve Super Bowls have
seen the favorite go 9-3 SU & 4-6-2 ATS; the last 14 favorites to score 30 or less points
are 2-11-1 ATS; teams who score 27 or more points are 23-1 SU & 21-2-1 ATS; teams
who score less than 20 points are 0-23 SU & 3-19-1 ATS. And, since 1980, teams
who won a playoff game in overtime are 5-10 SU & 7-8 ATS in their next game,
including 0-2 SU & ATS if the next game had Roman Numerals attached to it.
Whew. A lot of numbers to digest, to be sure. The bottom line is that the pressure
is squarely on New England to become the first team since the 1972 Dolphins to
escape a season unscathed from start to finish. The problem is they are leaking oil
(pointspread) badly while their opponent is super-surging. Yes, Eli?s coming and
the cards say... a broken heart for Giants? fans. Brady gets his fourth ring while
Manning takes home the experience and a pocketful of cash. Enjoy the game?
A few number to note
Patriots are 2-8 ATS their last 10
Their average margin of victory fell from 25.5 ppg top 12.2 in the last half of the season
The Giants won ten straight road games going 9-1 ATS while beating the spread by +83.5 points in that time away from NY.
Bellichick is 15-3 SU (12-0 as chalk) but only 9-8-1 ATS in the playoffs
And 7-11 under in the playoffs
He is 13-1 SU when the posted otal is 49 or higher
He is also 36-15 SU 30-19-2 ATS agaionst thr NFC
14-5 if of an ATS loss and 25-10 SUATS if they scored less than 28 in their previous game
Coughlin is 6-2 ATS as an 11 plus point underdog and 17-11 off a straight up dog win(6-1 SUATS last 7)
He is also 8-8 SU and 9-4-2 ATS against undefeated teams
Brady is 100-25 SU and 76-45-4 ATS(but only 11-11 as a double digit favorite)including a brilliant 14-2 SU mark in the post season
Eli Manning as a starter is 32-27 SU and 35-24 ATS but 19-9-1 away from home
Also, he is 29-12-1 in gamwes after they score more than 17
Super Bowl facts to ponder
Super Bowl favorites are 9-3 SU but only 4-6-2 the last 12 years
The last 14 favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-11-1 ATS
Teams who score 27 or more points are 23-1 SU and 21-2-1 ATS
Teams who score less than 20 points 0-23 SU and 3-19-1ATS
Since 1980 teams who won a playoff game in OT are 5-10 SU and 7-8ATS in the net game including 0-2 SUATS if the next game was a SB
Last edited:
THE GOLD SHEET
SUPER BOWL XLII
We?ve seen enough playoff rematches of regular-season meetings to realize
that the result of earlier matchups are hardly foolproof indicators of what?s to
come. Which was confirmed by the Giants? 23-20 overtime NFC title game win
at Green Bay that reversed the Packers? convincing regular-season triumph at
the Meadowlands. Nonetheless, we believe a quick revisit of the regularseason
meeting between New England and New York is in order, especially
since it took place rather recently (December 29, during the final week of the
regular season).
Of course, that Saturday night battle was a memorable affair because of the
uncommon hype it received, being that it was the last hurdle for the Patriots to
clear in their quest for an unbeaten regular season, an achievement New
England was hellbent on accomplishing. And the Patriots indeed got it done,
but it wasn?t easy. The Giants, already locked into the fifth NFC playoff seed
before kickoff and with little to play for, still made New England sweat. New
York showed no fear and plenty of versatility, surging to a 28-16 lead in the third
quarter before Tom Brady began to chip away. The big play of the game turned
out to be Brady?s 65-yard TD pass to Randy Moss early in the 4th Q that not only
gave Brady an NFL record 50 TD passes and Moss a record 23 TD receptions,
but also put the Patriots up for good. Still, the outcome wasn?t decided until New
England recovered an onside kick in the last minute, preserving the 38-35 win,
and the Giants exited the game feeling pretty good about themselves (?I never
saw a locker room so upbeat after a loss because we played so well,? said Eli
Manning). Indeed, the Patriots needed a big night from Brady (356 YP) to
compensate for their inability to establish the run (just 44 YR) and to counteract
the suddenly confident Eli, who threw 4 TD passes. New England?s special
teams were also burned by Domenik Hixon?s 74-yard kick return TD. Indeed,
the Patriots had dodged the proverbial bullet.
And we don?t see any reason why the rematch shouldn?t be just as, if not even
more, competitive.
Besides that close call at the Meadowlands, there is plenty to indicate from
other recent performances that not much separates these teams right now. The
Patriots? string of blowout wins ended before Thanksgiving. Though still
winning, New England appeared to peak at midseason, and a series of
struggles down the stretch (including that aforementioned struggle vs. the
Giants, plus narrow escapes vs. marginal Eagles and Ravens squads, not to
mention only one pointspread cover in their last 8 games) suggests as much.
Brady, perhaps compromised by that mild ankle sprain, was not nearly his best
in the AFC title game vs. San Diego, tossing an uncharacteristic three picks. If
anything, Eli has been the sharper QB in the postseason, with 4 TDP and no
picks in three difficult road assignments.
Let?s also not forget Bill Belichick?s history in Super Bowls with the Patriots.
Three wins in as many tries, but no easy ones in the bunch. In fact, each of the
triumphs was recorded by a mere three points, and the clutch PK (Adam Vinatieri)
who won two of those games at the final gun is now employed by the Colts.
Indeed, a valid argument could be made that the Giants are playing better
football going into the game than New England. New York has won
impressively on the road in postseason at difficult Tampa Bay, Dallas, and
Green Bay venues. The ?good Eli? has been on display throughout the playoffs,
eliminating the mistakes that plagued him earlier in his career. Belichick is
unlikely to pull any tricks on old cohort Coughlin, another product of the Bill
Parcells coaching tree. The Giants are riding a Banzai Pipeline-sized wave of
confidence, having won ten straight on the road. And they have absolutely no
fear of the Patriots, especially after pushing them to the limit in the regularseason
finale. Besides, all streaks end; we remember a UCLA basketball win
streak almost five times as long as New England?s ending in dramatic fashion
once upon a time at Notre Dame, too.
New England might get to the magic 19-0, but if it does so, we don?t think it?s
going to be easy. In fact, we?re not sure the Patriots will get there at all. That?s
because the better team right now might be the one getting all of those bobonus
points from the oddsmakers.
Predicted score: NY GIANTS 31 - New England 30
SUPER BOWL XLII
We?ve seen enough playoff rematches of regular-season meetings to realize
that the result of earlier matchups are hardly foolproof indicators of what?s to
come. Which was confirmed by the Giants? 23-20 overtime NFC title game win
at Green Bay that reversed the Packers? convincing regular-season triumph at
the Meadowlands. Nonetheless, we believe a quick revisit of the regularseason
meeting between New England and New York is in order, especially
since it took place rather recently (December 29, during the final week of the
regular season).
Of course, that Saturday night battle was a memorable affair because of the
uncommon hype it received, being that it was the last hurdle for the Patriots to
clear in their quest for an unbeaten regular season, an achievement New
England was hellbent on accomplishing. And the Patriots indeed got it done,
but it wasn?t easy. The Giants, already locked into the fifth NFC playoff seed
before kickoff and with little to play for, still made New England sweat. New
York showed no fear and plenty of versatility, surging to a 28-16 lead in the third
quarter before Tom Brady began to chip away. The big play of the game turned
out to be Brady?s 65-yard TD pass to Randy Moss early in the 4th Q that not only
gave Brady an NFL record 50 TD passes and Moss a record 23 TD receptions,
but also put the Patriots up for good. Still, the outcome wasn?t decided until New
England recovered an onside kick in the last minute, preserving the 38-35 win,
and the Giants exited the game feeling pretty good about themselves (?I never
saw a locker room so upbeat after a loss because we played so well,? said Eli
Manning). Indeed, the Patriots needed a big night from Brady (356 YP) to
compensate for their inability to establish the run (just 44 YR) and to counteract
the suddenly confident Eli, who threw 4 TD passes. New England?s special
teams were also burned by Domenik Hixon?s 74-yard kick return TD. Indeed,
the Patriots had dodged the proverbial bullet.
And we don?t see any reason why the rematch shouldn?t be just as, if not even
more, competitive.
Besides that close call at the Meadowlands, there is plenty to indicate from
other recent performances that not much separates these teams right now. The
Patriots? string of blowout wins ended before Thanksgiving. Though still
winning, New England appeared to peak at midseason, and a series of
struggles down the stretch (including that aforementioned struggle vs. the
Giants, plus narrow escapes vs. marginal Eagles and Ravens squads, not to
mention only one pointspread cover in their last 8 games) suggests as much.
Brady, perhaps compromised by that mild ankle sprain, was not nearly his best
in the AFC title game vs. San Diego, tossing an uncharacteristic three picks. If
anything, Eli has been the sharper QB in the postseason, with 4 TDP and no
picks in three difficult road assignments.
Let?s also not forget Bill Belichick?s history in Super Bowls with the Patriots.
Three wins in as many tries, but no easy ones in the bunch. In fact, each of the
triumphs was recorded by a mere three points, and the clutch PK (Adam Vinatieri)
who won two of those games at the final gun is now employed by the Colts.
Indeed, a valid argument could be made that the Giants are playing better
football going into the game than New England. New York has won
impressively on the road in postseason at difficult Tampa Bay, Dallas, and
Green Bay venues. The ?good Eli? has been on display throughout the playoffs,
eliminating the mistakes that plagued him earlier in his career. Belichick is
unlikely to pull any tricks on old cohort Coughlin, another product of the Bill
Parcells coaching tree. The Giants are riding a Banzai Pipeline-sized wave of
confidence, having won ten straight on the road. And they have absolutely no
fear of the Patriots, especially after pushing them to the limit in the regularseason
finale. Besides, all streaks end; we remember a UCLA basketball win
streak almost five times as long as New England?s ending in dramatic fashion
once upon a time at Notre Dame, too.
New England might get to the magic 19-0, but if it does so, we don?t think it?s
going to be easy. In fact, we?re not sure the Patriots will get there at all. That?s
because the better team right now might be the one getting all of those bobonus
points from the oddsmakers.
Predicted score: NY GIANTS 31 - New England 30
Daniel Fabrizio
**************.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of **************.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry?s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what?s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketwatch ? NFL Week 21 ? Super Bowl
NFL Playoffs - Games to Watch
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of ?Public? square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual ?box-office-pool? ? to the professional sports bettor ? to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of ?Public? money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game?s betting line. They?ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. ?Public Money? dwarfs the amount of ?Sharp Money? buying back the shaded lines.
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
**************? exclusive betting percentages show that an amazing 67% of the bets are on the surprising NY Giants. The line opened at NE ?14 but the steady stream of bets on NY has pushed the line all the way down to NE ?12. One sportsbook (Sports Interaction) even has NE-11.5 at the time of this article. The steady public action on the Giants has caused a huge 2-point move off of the key number of 14: a nice value.
The Giants have had a good run in the playoffs. On the other hand, New England hasn?t covered the spread over the latter part of the season. As our readers know, we like to ?buy low and sell high.? For the SuperBowl, we?ll ?buy? the Patriots at a low and ?sell? the Giants at a high. Speaking of value and buying things ?at a low? ? we think that Tom Brady is going to bounce back mightily after his subpar performance last game.
We see good value on New England ?11.5 in the SuperBowl. This is ?for all of the marbles? and we see the Patriots showing why they are one of the best in history.
New England Patriots ?11.5 (Bet at Sports Interaction -11.5)
Playoff Recap
New England Patriots ?11.5 (Bet at Sports Interaction -11.5)
It should be another exciting Super Bowl. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to **************.comm for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
**************.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of **************.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry?s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what?s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketwatch ? NFL Week 21 ? Super Bowl
NFL Playoffs - Games to Watch
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of ?Public? square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual ?box-office-pool? ? to the professional sports bettor ? to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of ?Public? money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game?s betting line. They?ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. ?Public Money? dwarfs the amount of ?Sharp Money? buying back the shaded lines.
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
**************? exclusive betting percentages show that an amazing 67% of the bets are on the surprising NY Giants. The line opened at NE ?14 but the steady stream of bets on NY has pushed the line all the way down to NE ?12. One sportsbook (Sports Interaction) even has NE-11.5 at the time of this article. The steady public action on the Giants has caused a huge 2-point move off of the key number of 14: a nice value.
The Giants have had a good run in the playoffs. On the other hand, New England hasn?t covered the spread over the latter part of the season. As our readers know, we like to ?buy low and sell high.? For the SuperBowl, we?ll ?buy? the Patriots at a low and ?sell? the Giants at a high. Speaking of value and buying things ?at a low? ? we think that Tom Brady is going to bounce back mightily after his subpar performance last game.
We see good value on New England ?11.5 in the SuperBowl. This is ?for all of the marbles? and we see the Patriots showing why they are one of the best in history.
New England Patriots ?11.5 (Bet at Sports Interaction -11.5)
Playoff Recap
New England Patriots ?11.5 (Bet at Sports Interaction -11.5)
It should be another exciting Super Bowl. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to **************.comm for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
DR BOB
SUPER BOWL ANALYSIS
New England (-12) 37 New York Giants 20
The line on this game opened with the Patriots as a 14 point favorite and quickly went down to 12 points. Apparently, New England ?s lack of recent pointspread success (5 straight spread losses and 2-8 ATS after starting the season 8-0 ATS), combined with the Giants? 10 consecutive wins away from home, have generated a lot of interest in betting on the big underdog in this game. The question is if that interest in taking the surging Giants plus the 12 points is prudent. Let?s start by finding a fair line for this game.
New England Offense versus New York Defense
The Patriots? offense is one of the best in NFL history, averaging 409 yards at 6.3 yards per play and 35.6 points per game. Running back Laurence Maroney leads a rushing attack that averaged a solid 4.4 ypr (against teams that would allow 4.2 ypr to an average team) and Tom Brady has averaged an incredible 7.7 yards per pass play despite facing a schedule of teams that would combine to allow only 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, the Patriots averaged 6.3 yards per play with Brady in the game ? against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average offensive unit. Presented with the task of slowing that offense down is a Giants? defense that has yielded just 4.8 yppl since week 2 and has been good against both the run (3.9 ypr allowed to teams that would averaged 4.3 ypr) and against the pass (5.5 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.4 yppp against an average defense). I excluded the Giants? week 1 game against Dallas because Michael Strahan and cornerback Sam Madison did not start. Overall, the Giants stop unit rates at 0.7 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team), which is not as good as New England ?s +1.2 yppl offensive rating. New England?s attack looked unstoppable early in the season, but slowed down some as they faced tougher defenses and played in worse weather in the second half of the season and the playoffs. Having this game in a domed stadium will most likely bring out the best in Tom Brady, who has been 1.0 yards per pass play better in domed stadiums than he?s been overall in his career. Without wind and cold weather to affect Brady I expect the Patriots to move the ball easier than they did in their week 17 contest at New York in which they averaged 6.1 yppl and scored 38 points. New York ?s great pass rush (3.1 sacks per game since week 2) only got to Brady 1 time and the Giants? questionable secondary simply doesn?t match up with the Patriots? stable of great receivers. Brady averaged 8.1 yppp in that game and I expect New England ?s running attack to be better in this game than it was in the first meeting (just 48 yard at 2.2 ypr).
New York Offense versus New England Defense
The Giants? offense and Eli Manning are getting a lot of praise heading into this game, but New York was only 0.1 yards per play better than average this season (5.2 yppl with Manning in the game, against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) and that unit was no better at moving the ball in their 3 playoffs games. New York averaged only 4.9 yppl in road wins over Tampa Bay , Dallas , and Green Bay ? teams that would combine to allow 4.8 yppl at home against an average team. The difference in the post-season for the Giants was the ZERO offensive turnovers in those 3 victories, which is more random good luck than anything else. It is not likely that the Giants will continue to avoid turnovers and they are likely to turn it over at a normal rate in this game despite their spotless turnover number in the playoffs (their one fumble was a fumble by a defensive player on an interception return). After all, fumbles are 90% random in the NFL and Eli Manning has been one of the most interception prone quarterbacks in the NFL in recent seasons and has thrown 20 picks this season. New York has a good rushing attack (4.6 ypr against teams that would allow 4.1 ypr) and the Giants should have success running the football against a Patriots? defense that allowed 4.4 ypr this season to teams that would average 4.2 ypr against an average team. However, Manning?s season numbers (and his career numbers) are worse than average (5.7 yards per pass play this season against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB) and New England is good defending the pass (5.4 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average team), so Manning should struggle in this game despite his recent improved play. Manning did have a very good game in the Giants? close 35-38 loss to the Patriots in week 17 (7.2 yppp) but one game does not outweigh a season of mediocrity and Patriots? coach Bill Belichick has two weeks to prepare his defense and fix the problems that hurt them in the earlier meeting. Overall, New England?s defense (0.3 yppl better than average) has a slight edge over New York ?s offense (0.1 yppl better than average), but the Giants should move the ball at a decent clip in the perfect conditions inside the dome in Arizona .
Math Model Projection
Overall my math model projects New England to gain 374 yards at 6.0 yppl to New York ?s 317 yards at 5.3 yppl with Manning throwing 1.05 interceptions to Brady?s 0.72 picks. The stats projected for this game, which also include projected fumbles, penalties and special teams, would yield a line of New England by 5.9 points with a total score of 46.0 points under normal circumstances. However, New England is not a normal team. The Patriots turn yards into points much better than any other team because they?re so good when they get in scoring territory. If New England were a normal team their stats (i.e. yardage, yards per play, turnovers, penalties, special teams, etc) would equate to a scoring margin of +12.8 points per game but the Patriots out-scored their opponents by 18.6 points per game (35.6 to 17.0) this season. Most of the time the difference between a teams actual scoring margin and their projected scoring margin based on their stats is nothing more than random variance, but that is not the case with a few teams (Indianapolis is another team that out-plays their stats) and I believe that New England?s better than forecasted scoring margin is due to Tom Brady?s efficiency in the red-zone rather than random variance (New England has always out-played their stats with Brady at quarterback). If New England is indeed 5.8 points per game better than what their stats suggest (and New York continues to be 0.1 points better than their stats) then we get Patriots by 11.6 points instead of by 5.9 points. Most of the Patriots additional scoring margin comes from the offensive side of the football and comparing both teams total points per game with what is expected from their stats shows that this game should be 5.4 points higher scoring than my math model projects ? which gives us a projected total of 51.4 points instead of 46.0 points. So, my math prediction is New England by 11.6 points with a total of 51.4 points.
Super Bowl Math
The Super Bowl cannot be looked at the same as other games. Unlike the regular season, when teams in control often relax, teams on the verge of a Super Bowl championship tend to maintain their high intensity level. At the same time, the spirits of the trailing team diminish as their hopes of a championship are dashed. The past Super Bowls, and the NFL and AFL Championship games that preceded the first Super Bowl, have long had a history of blowout wins. The winning team in the Super Bowl has won by 14 points or more 21 times in 41 games and there were 7 blowout wins of 14 points or more in the 12 NFL Championship games prior to the inaugural Super Bowl in 1967. The oddsmakers are aware of that trend and usually make the line on the Super Bowl higher than it would be under normal circumstances to adjust for the blowout phenomenon, which is why they opened the line on this game at 14 points. Blowouts haven?t been as prevalent in recent years (due to more competitive match-ups), but the lines have still had a tendency to be higher than they would be in a regular season match-up between the same teams.
Each year I calculate an equation based on the fair line for each Super Bowl and the actual Super Bowl margin of victory and I use that equation to forecast a ?Super Bowl margin of victory? that is based on what the line on each Super Bowl game would be under normal circumstances. I use the mathematically fair line for all Super Bowls since 1987 (based on my math projections on the game) and I use the actual pointspread for all Super Bowls from the AFL-NFL merger in Super Bowl 4 through Super Bowl 21 in 1987 (the adjusting of the Super Bowl spreads to higher numbers didn?t actually start until the 90?s so using the actual lines in earlier games is fair). The equation I come up with certainly suggests that teams that are clearly better should certainly be favored by more points in the Super Bowl than they would be favored by under normal circumstances and the higher the fair line is the more the adjustment should be. If the fair line on this game under normal circumstances is New England by 11.6 points then the equation forecasts an average win of 21.6 points if the Patriots win the game. The same equation predicts an average win of just 3.6 points if the Giants happen to win. The next step is to calculate the chance that each team has of winning straight up, which depends on more than simply what the fair line is since every team has a different variance in their results (i.e. some or more consistent in their performance than others).
New England was unbeaten, but they got away with a few mediocre performances that would lead to a loss if the Giants played one of their better games. To incorporate variance into finding a fair line and the chance that each team has of winning straight up I use a matrix of game ratings for each team. For each team I assign a game rating that is based on each team?s statistics, the level of opponent they faced and whether the game was home, road or neutral (in the case of New York?s game against Miami in London). I used all 18 games for New England and I disregarded New York ?s game rating from their week 1 loss at Dallas when two defensive starters didn?t start. I now have 18 game ratings for each team and I can use those individual game ratings to form an 18 by 18 matrix with 324 cells that correspond to potential results for this game. I can find the median cell value to find what the pointspread should be and also calculate the percentage of cells that have New York with a higher game rating than New England , which would represent the Giants? chance of an upset. The median cell was 12 ? points and New York had a higher game rating in 18.2% of the cells. That number is in line with the posted odds for the Giants to win this game, as an 18.2% chance of winning corresponds to odds of 4.50 to 1 and the current line at Pinnacle is -4.65 for the Pats to win and +4.25 for the Giants.
New England has an 81.8% chance of winning this game and their average margin of victory if they win is 21.6 points based on the Super Bowl margin of victory formula I discussed above. The Giants have an 18.2% chance of winning and they?d be expected to win by only 3.6 points if they win. The resulting math projects an average margin of New England by 17 points (.818 x 21.6 - .182 x 3.6 = 17.0).
Based on the 37 past Super Bowls since the NFL-AFL merger a team that would be favored by 11.6 points in a regular season game should be favored to win by 17 points in the Super Bowl if the distribution of past Super Bowl margins is representative of future Super Bowl games. Of course, having a sample size of just 37 Super Bowls does not give us a big enough sample size to make the assumption that future Super Bowls will have the same distribution of margins of victory as past Super Bowls have had. With a limited sample size the projection of a 17 point win is likely too high, although it is certainly possible that future Super Bowl margins will have a similar distribution as in the past (especially given that NFL Championship games prior to the Super Bowl had a similar pattern). The other extreme is that the phenomenon of blowout wins in the Super Bowl is due simply to chance and that the distribution of Super Bowl results is actually the same as in the regular season. If that were the case then New England by 11 ? points would be the fair line on this game, which still gives the Patriots close to a 50% chance of covering even if the pattern of blowouts in Super Bowls is simply random variance (and the median cell of the matrix makes them a 12 ? point choice with a slightly better than 50% chance of covering). There is enough statistical evidence to suggest that Super Bowls do have a somewhat higher variance of margin of victory than regular season games do but not enough evidence to suggest that future Super Bowls will have the same distribution as past Super Bowls. The true answer of what the line should be lies somewhere in between the two extremes and I have come up with a realistic equation for converting regular season margins into Super Bowl margins. I will not describe that process in detail for you, but a team that would be favored by 11 ? points in the regular season should be favored by 14 points in the Super Bowl ? which is where this line opened in the first place.
My analysis suggests that the opening line of New England by 14 points is a fair line for a Super Bowl meeting between these two teams even though 11 ? points would be a fair line in a regular season game. If the fair line is 14 points then New England is a profitable 54.5% play at -12 points (56.3% at -11 ?) and I?ll lean with New England a -13 ? points or less, consider New England a Strong Opinion at -11 or less and a 2-Star Best Bet if the line gets down to -10. I?m inclined to believe that the tendency of blowouts by superior teams in past Super Bowls and Championship games is real and will continue. If that is the case then Patriots by 17 points would be the most likely outcome.
Super Bowl Angles
Super Bowl favorites of more than 7 points are 7-3-1 ATS and teams with a win-loss percentage that is at least .080 higher than their opponent (i.e. more than 1 game better in regular season win-loss record) are 12-5-1 ATS since the AFL-NFL merger, which coincides with the past tendency of clearly superior teams to win by big margins.
Favoring the Giants is the fact that teams on a 3 game or more pointspread win streak are 10-3-2 ATS since 1981 when not facing a team that is also on a 3 game or more spread win streak.
Over/Under
My math projected a total score of 51 ? points for this game but Super Bowls tend to be higher scoring, especially when the teams had an extra week off to game plan. Since 1981 there have been 7 Super Bowls that were played the week following the conference championship games and those 7 games averaged 43.1 points while the 20 Super Bowls since 1981 in which the game was played two weeks after the championship games averaged 53.0 points. I also have calculated an equation that takes a predicted total and turns it into a Super Bowl total based on the tendency for higher scoring games in the Super Bowl. A game that would total 51 ? points if it were a regular season game would result in a Super Bowl total of 59 points if past Super Bowl totals are representative of future Super Bowl totals. Once again, there is certainly a good chance that high scoring games in past Super Bowls are just a fluke but with this game being played indoors in perfect conditions I expect a high scoring game. I will lean with the Over in this game at 55 points or less.
Super Bowl Props
There were no Super Bowl Props that grabbed my attention, but I'll email everyone later in the week if I find any that do.
SUPER BOWL ANALYSIS
New England (-12) 37 New York Giants 20
The line on this game opened with the Patriots as a 14 point favorite and quickly went down to 12 points. Apparently, New England ?s lack of recent pointspread success (5 straight spread losses and 2-8 ATS after starting the season 8-0 ATS), combined with the Giants? 10 consecutive wins away from home, have generated a lot of interest in betting on the big underdog in this game. The question is if that interest in taking the surging Giants plus the 12 points is prudent. Let?s start by finding a fair line for this game.
New England Offense versus New York Defense
The Patriots? offense is one of the best in NFL history, averaging 409 yards at 6.3 yards per play and 35.6 points per game. Running back Laurence Maroney leads a rushing attack that averaged a solid 4.4 ypr (against teams that would allow 4.2 ypr to an average team) and Tom Brady has averaged an incredible 7.7 yards per pass play despite facing a schedule of teams that would combine to allow only 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, the Patriots averaged 6.3 yards per play with Brady in the game ? against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average offensive unit. Presented with the task of slowing that offense down is a Giants? defense that has yielded just 4.8 yppl since week 2 and has been good against both the run (3.9 ypr allowed to teams that would averaged 4.3 ypr) and against the pass (5.5 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.4 yppp against an average defense). I excluded the Giants? week 1 game against Dallas because Michael Strahan and cornerback Sam Madison did not start. Overall, the Giants stop unit rates at 0.7 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team), which is not as good as New England ?s +1.2 yppl offensive rating. New England?s attack looked unstoppable early in the season, but slowed down some as they faced tougher defenses and played in worse weather in the second half of the season and the playoffs. Having this game in a domed stadium will most likely bring out the best in Tom Brady, who has been 1.0 yards per pass play better in domed stadiums than he?s been overall in his career. Without wind and cold weather to affect Brady I expect the Patriots to move the ball easier than they did in their week 17 contest at New York in which they averaged 6.1 yppl and scored 38 points. New York ?s great pass rush (3.1 sacks per game since week 2) only got to Brady 1 time and the Giants? questionable secondary simply doesn?t match up with the Patriots? stable of great receivers. Brady averaged 8.1 yppp in that game and I expect New England ?s running attack to be better in this game than it was in the first meeting (just 48 yard at 2.2 ypr).
New York Offense versus New England Defense
The Giants? offense and Eli Manning are getting a lot of praise heading into this game, but New York was only 0.1 yards per play better than average this season (5.2 yppl with Manning in the game, against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) and that unit was no better at moving the ball in their 3 playoffs games. New York averaged only 4.9 yppl in road wins over Tampa Bay , Dallas , and Green Bay ? teams that would combine to allow 4.8 yppl at home against an average team. The difference in the post-season for the Giants was the ZERO offensive turnovers in those 3 victories, which is more random good luck than anything else. It is not likely that the Giants will continue to avoid turnovers and they are likely to turn it over at a normal rate in this game despite their spotless turnover number in the playoffs (their one fumble was a fumble by a defensive player on an interception return). After all, fumbles are 90% random in the NFL and Eli Manning has been one of the most interception prone quarterbacks in the NFL in recent seasons and has thrown 20 picks this season. New York has a good rushing attack (4.6 ypr against teams that would allow 4.1 ypr) and the Giants should have success running the football against a Patriots? defense that allowed 4.4 ypr this season to teams that would average 4.2 ypr against an average team. However, Manning?s season numbers (and his career numbers) are worse than average (5.7 yards per pass play this season against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB) and New England is good defending the pass (5.4 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average team), so Manning should struggle in this game despite his recent improved play. Manning did have a very good game in the Giants? close 35-38 loss to the Patriots in week 17 (7.2 yppp) but one game does not outweigh a season of mediocrity and Patriots? coach Bill Belichick has two weeks to prepare his defense and fix the problems that hurt them in the earlier meeting. Overall, New England?s defense (0.3 yppl better than average) has a slight edge over New York ?s offense (0.1 yppl better than average), but the Giants should move the ball at a decent clip in the perfect conditions inside the dome in Arizona .
Math Model Projection
Overall my math model projects New England to gain 374 yards at 6.0 yppl to New York ?s 317 yards at 5.3 yppl with Manning throwing 1.05 interceptions to Brady?s 0.72 picks. The stats projected for this game, which also include projected fumbles, penalties and special teams, would yield a line of New England by 5.9 points with a total score of 46.0 points under normal circumstances. However, New England is not a normal team. The Patriots turn yards into points much better than any other team because they?re so good when they get in scoring territory. If New England were a normal team their stats (i.e. yardage, yards per play, turnovers, penalties, special teams, etc) would equate to a scoring margin of +12.8 points per game but the Patriots out-scored their opponents by 18.6 points per game (35.6 to 17.0) this season. Most of the time the difference between a teams actual scoring margin and their projected scoring margin based on their stats is nothing more than random variance, but that is not the case with a few teams (Indianapolis is another team that out-plays their stats) and I believe that New England?s better than forecasted scoring margin is due to Tom Brady?s efficiency in the red-zone rather than random variance (New England has always out-played their stats with Brady at quarterback). If New England is indeed 5.8 points per game better than what their stats suggest (and New York continues to be 0.1 points better than their stats) then we get Patriots by 11.6 points instead of by 5.9 points. Most of the Patriots additional scoring margin comes from the offensive side of the football and comparing both teams total points per game with what is expected from their stats shows that this game should be 5.4 points higher scoring than my math model projects ? which gives us a projected total of 51.4 points instead of 46.0 points. So, my math prediction is New England by 11.6 points with a total of 51.4 points.
Super Bowl Math
The Super Bowl cannot be looked at the same as other games. Unlike the regular season, when teams in control often relax, teams on the verge of a Super Bowl championship tend to maintain their high intensity level. At the same time, the spirits of the trailing team diminish as their hopes of a championship are dashed. The past Super Bowls, and the NFL and AFL Championship games that preceded the first Super Bowl, have long had a history of blowout wins. The winning team in the Super Bowl has won by 14 points or more 21 times in 41 games and there were 7 blowout wins of 14 points or more in the 12 NFL Championship games prior to the inaugural Super Bowl in 1967. The oddsmakers are aware of that trend and usually make the line on the Super Bowl higher than it would be under normal circumstances to adjust for the blowout phenomenon, which is why they opened the line on this game at 14 points. Blowouts haven?t been as prevalent in recent years (due to more competitive match-ups), but the lines have still had a tendency to be higher than they would be in a regular season match-up between the same teams.
Each year I calculate an equation based on the fair line for each Super Bowl and the actual Super Bowl margin of victory and I use that equation to forecast a ?Super Bowl margin of victory? that is based on what the line on each Super Bowl game would be under normal circumstances. I use the mathematically fair line for all Super Bowls since 1987 (based on my math projections on the game) and I use the actual pointspread for all Super Bowls from the AFL-NFL merger in Super Bowl 4 through Super Bowl 21 in 1987 (the adjusting of the Super Bowl spreads to higher numbers didn?t actually start until the 90?s so using the actual lines in earlier games is fair). The equation I come up with certainly suggests that teams that are clearly better should certainly be favored by more points in the Super Bowl than they would be favored by under normal circumstances and the higher the fair line is the more the adjustment should be. If the fair line on this game under normal circumstances is New England by 11.6 points then the equation forecasts an average win of 21.6 points if the Patriots win the game. The same equation predicts an average win of just 3.6 points if the Giants happen to win. The next step is to calculate the chance that each team has of winning straight up, which depends on more than simply what the fair line is since every team has a different variance in their results (i.e. some or more consistent in their performance than others).
New England was unbeaten, but they got away with a few mediocre performances that would lead to a loss if the Giants played one of their better games. To incorporate variance into finding a fair line and the chance that each team has of winning straight up I use a matrix of game ratings for each team. For each team I assign a game rating that is based on each team?s statistics, the level of opponent they faced and whether the game was home, road or neutral (in the case of New York?s game against Miami in London). I used all 18 games for New England and I disregarded New York ?s game rating from their week 1 loss at Dallas when two defensive starters didn?t start. I now have 18 game ratings for each team and I can use those individual game ratings to form an 18 by 18 matrix with 324 cells that correspond to potential results for this game. I can find the median cell value to find what the pointspread should be and also calculate the percentage of cells that have New York with a higher game rating than New England , which would represent the Giants? chance of an upset. The median cell was 12 ? points and New York had a higher game rating in 18.2% of the cells. That number is in line with the posted odds for the Giants to win this game, as an 18.2% chance of winning corresponds to odds of 4.50 to 1 and the current line at Pinnacle is -4.65 for the Pats to win and +4.25 for the Giants.
New England has an 81.8% chance of winning this game and their average margin of victory if they win is 21.6 points based on the Super Bowl margin of victory formula I discussed above. The Giants have an 18.2% chance of winning and they?d be expected to win by only 3.6 points if they win. The resulting math projects an average margin of New England by 17 points (.818 x 21.6 - .182 x 3.6 = 17.0).
Based on the 37 past Super Bowls since the NFL-AFL merger a team that would be favored by 11.6 points in a regular season game should be favored to win by 17 points in the Super Bowl if the distribution of past Super Bowl margins is representative of future Super Bowl games. Of course, having a sample size of just 37 Super Bowls does not give us a big enough sample size to make the assumption that future Super Bowls will have the same distribution of margins of victory as past Super Bowls have had. With a limited sample size the projection of a 17 point win is likely too high, although it is certainly possible that future Super Bowl margins will have a similar distribution as in the past (especially given that NFL Championship games prior to the Super Bowl had a similar pattern). The other extreme is that the phenomenon of blowout wins in the Super Bowl is due simply to chance and that the distribution of Super Bowl results is actually the same as in the regular season. If that were the case then New England by 11 ? points would be the fair line on this game, which still gives the Patriots close to a 50% chance of covering even if the pattern of blowouts in Super Bowls is simply random variance (and the median cell of the matrix makes them a 12 ? point choice with a slightly better than 50% chance of covering). There is enough statistical evidence to suggest that Super Bowls do have a somewhat higher variance of margin of victory than regular season games do but not enough evidence to suggest that future Super Bowls will have the same distribution as past Super Bowls. The true answer of what the line should be lies somewhere in between the two extremes and I have come up with a realistic equation for converting regular season margins into Super Bowl margins. I will not describe that process in detail for you, but a team that would be favored by 11 ? points in the regular season should be favored by 14 points in the Super Bowl ? which is where this line opened in the first place.
My analysis suggests that the opening line of New England by 14 points is a fair line for a Super Bowl meeting between these two teams even though 11 ? points would be a fair line in a regular season game. If the fair line is 14 points then New England is a profitable 54.5% play at -12 points (56.3% at -11 ?) and I?ll lean with New England a -13 ? points or less, consider New England a Strong Opinion at -11 or less and a 2-Star Best Bet if the line gets down to -10. I?m inclined to believe that the tendency of blowouts by superior teams in past Super Bowls and Championship games is real and will continue. If that is the case then Patriots by 17 points would be the most likely outcome.
Super Bowl Angles
Super Bowl favorites of more than 7 points are 7-3-1 ATS and teams with a win-loss percentage that is at least .080 higher than their opponent (i.e. more than 1 game better in regular season win-loss record) are 12-5-1 ATS since the AFL-NFL merger, which coincides with the past tendency of clearly superior teams to win by big margins.
Favoring the Giants is the fact that teams on a 3 game or more pointspread win streak are 10-3-2 ATS since 1981 when not facing a team that is also on a 3 game or more spread win streak.
Over/Under
My math projected a total score of 51 ? points for this game but Super Bowls tend to be higher scoring, especially when the teams had an extra week off to game plan. Since 1981 there have been 7 Super Bowls that were played the week following the conference championship games and those 7 games averaged 43.1 points while the 20 Super Bowls since 1981 in which the game was played two weeks after the championship games averaged 53.0 points. I also have calculated an equation that takes a predicted total and turns it into a Super Bowl total based on the tendency for higher scoring games in the Super Bowl. A game that would total 51 ? points if it were a regular season game would result in a Super Bowl total of 59 points if past Super Bowl totals are representative of future Super Bowl totals. Once again, there is certainly a good chance that high scoring games in past Super Bowls are just a fluke but with this game being played indoors in perfect conditions I expect a high scoring game. I will lean with the Over in this game at 55 points or less.
Super Bowl Props
There were no Super Bowl Props that grabbed my attention, but I'll email everyone later in the week if I find any that do.