SUPER BOWL SUNDAY: FEB. 3RD 2008

[GIANTS007]

BOB BALFE

NFL Football
New England -12 over NY Giants
The New England Patriots are one win away from not only a Super Bowl Victory, but bragging rights as the best team in NFL history. There is no denying that this Patriots team is one of the best teams ever put together and you just have to ask yourself one thing. Do the Giants, who were 10-6 on the year and just 7-5 in the weak NFC, have a shot? It is obvious that their success lies on Eli Manning's back. The media bashes Manning due to the fact he plays in the biggest media market in the country, but he has played excellent in the playoffs and is becoming a good QB. I still do not think it will be enough. Plaxico Burress opened his mouth and predicted a Giants win. If there was one guy that really could be a factor in the success of this offense I would have say it would be him. Now that he fired up the Patriots I expect them to play him even tighter in coverage. Burress still has not yet practiced this week and it will be interesting to see how he performs.

The betting public, as of Friday, are betting more on the Giants. This shocks me because you have the greatest team to ever step on the field playing in the Super Bowl and still the bets do not favor them heavily. The Patriots have been awful against the spread in the last two months while the Giants have cashed the ticket. A lot of people will come out of the woodwork to bet this game and they all remember the Patriots failing to cover the previous two super bowls they played in. This New England team is truly America's team, but unlike the Cowboys of the 90's the general public can?t stand this team other than the fans in the Boston area. Most think Randy Moss is a thug, most think they are cheaters from the spy games on the Jets and most people out of pure jealousy just hate Tom Brady because he has it all on and off the football field. Bill Belichick is a miserable looking dude with a personality as tasteless as his beat up sweatshirt that he never changes. With all of this negative press does it really matter? Not to me it doesn't. Belichick is the best football coach in the last 20+ years and Tom Brady with another Super Bowl win will go down as the best QB ever in the playoffs.

The Giants have a lot of young rookies that had a big impact on their success this year, but they are just rookies and have a lot of maturing to do. Eli Manning has never faced this kind of pressure and although I think he can handle it, I don't think he will be at his best. The Giants kicker has the flu. I am sure he is going to play, but it takes a good week to fully recover from something like that. The Super Bowl is not a game but more of an event. The Patriots have been on this stage before and know how to handle it. New York has a lot of injuries and young guys in their secondary and it will probably be too much to handle New England's great receivers in Welker and Moss. Lawrence Maroney has been running the ball with power and to be honest I can?t find one flaw in the New England offense at all. Sure, they give up a few points on defense, but they have a bend but don't break mentality and always seem to come up with a key turnover at the right time.

This week reports came out about a woman charging Moss with assault and we all have seen pictures of Brady in his leg brace hoping around. This is all media driven hype that has people liking the Giants chances even more. There is nothing wrong with Brady and that leg will only be a problem if somehow the Giants win this game. I believe the linemakers did an excellent job at getting money off of New England and onto New York. A few things that I don't think the Giants will be able to do is consistently pressure Brady with Maroney running as well as he is doing and with the threat of their receivers. One blitz gone bad and the Patriots put up a touchdown in a flash. What are the Giants going to do when New England goes with five wide receivers? The Giants are thin enough in their coverage. Who do you put on Mike Vrabel when the Pats get in the redzone? So many things will have to go wrong for the Patriots and right for the Giants for New York to win this game. There is much talk about the Giants Defense line dominating this game. They are excellent, but Matt Light and the rest of the New England offensive line give Brady all the protection he needs. The Giants are the hottest team in the NFL right now, but the two week layoff is the worst thing that can happen to a team that is on a roll. A rule of thumb in big games like this is to bet on the team you think is going to win. If New England gets backdoored with a minute or two left then that is just the price you pay for gambling and obviously there is no way to predict something like that happening.

I am going with the Patriots and in my own personal opinion I don't think the Giants make this a close game. If New England gets a big lead you can shutoff the lights. We have not had a Super Bowl blowout in a long time and to be honest it doesn't matter to me if the Patriots win by two touchdowns or five, but New York could be in for a long night. I do not see anyone on the Giants offense capable of really beating them with speed like Steve Smith of the Panthers and LJ Smith of the Eagles did in the last two Super Bowls they played in. The whole world will be tuned in and all of the other 18 victories mean nothing if the Patriots do not win this game. This team has the experience and talent to beat the Giants by this 12 point number. The stage is set for the Patriots to go down in history and judging by their perfect season so far I cannot go against them. Brady and Belichick will go down as two of the most influential people in NFL history on Sunday. Take the Patriots.

 

[GIANTS007]

Allen Eastman

4-Unit Play Take #101 New York Giants and New England Patriots UNDER 53.5. (Sunday, February 3, 6:20 pm EST).

Consider some numbers. In the 41 previous Super Bowls, there have been 1525 points scored. That's an average of 37.195 per game. Only 8 times in Super Bowl history has a game exceeded the 60-point mark. Just looking at the season statistics for these two teams would indicate a game well below the total. New England is averaging 32.7 ppg and allowing 13.5. That's 46.2 more than a touchdown BELOW the posted total. And those numbers came with a healthy Tom Brady. The Giants are averaging 24.9 while allowing 18.3. Add it up and it's still well below 53.5. History shows that DEFENSE wins Super Bowls. New York gave up 80 combined points in its first two games of the season, both of which, not surprisingly, ended up as straight up and ATS losses. Since then, the Giants have held 14 of their last 17 opponents to 24 points or fewer with only Dallas, Minnesota and New England topping that total. The Giants lost all three of those games, covering only against New England in Week 17?s 38-35 loss. Those teams wont come close to matching the numbers from Week 17.

3-Unit Play (TEASER) Take #102 New England Patriots -5 and UNDER 60.5.

My reasons for the under are listed above. As far as the side is concerned, I don't think the Patriots are going to be denied in their pursuit of history. The Pats have too many weapons and a huge coaching advantage to boot. The 5-point side should be an easy cover.

SUPER BOWL PROPS:

Will Tom Brady throw at least one interception? -115 (Yes). The Giants will get at least one pick that will help keep the score down. Look for a Patriots fumble as well.

Total rushing yards for Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw 40 1/2 -120. Play the OVER.

 

[GIANTS007]

Robert Ferringo

3-Unit Play. Take #101 New York Giants (+12) over New England Patriots (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 2)
This is just too many points to pass up. The Giants played with the Patriots in the Meadowlands when they had much less to play for than New England. New York matched them physically and emotionally and I think they will do the same on Super Sunday. Trends are out the window at this point, so this is just a play for pride. This entire bet ? and this entire game ? really comes down to something that, as I?ve learned over and over again, you just can?t handicap: turnovers. If the Giants turn the ball over less than two times we?re going to cover this bet and they have a very strong chance to win this game. Same goes for if they win the turnover battle overall. If the G-Men turn the ball over twice, it?s a 50-50 bet, and if they turn the ball over more than twice it?s going to be a bloodbath. I see New York taking care of the ball, rushing and playing good, aggressive defense, and I think that while the Patriots will win this will be a fourth-quarter game and an entertaining one at that.

2-Unit Play. Take ?Under? 54.0 New York Giants vs. New England Patriots (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 2)
1-Unit Play. First Quarter: Take ?Under? 10.5 New York Giants vs. New England Patriots (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 2)
The first quarter play is kind of obvious. I expect each team to come out and dance around the ring for about 15 minutes. No one wants to be the first team to allow a big play or be the first team to commit a turnover so I expect each club to play it close to the vest. Sam Madison is the only guy who may blow this one for us.

As for the game total, it?s my default setting to play ?under? in any game where the total is 50 points or below. Over the past three years there have been 25 games with a total posted at 50 or above and the ?under? is 18-6-1. We may miss here but the value is against the public, which expects a high-scoring affair or a New England blowout. The 'under' is 4-1 in New York's last five playoff games and 13-5-1 in New England's last 19 postseason outings. The total points should settle somewhere between 43-49 with a late score making it seem closer than it was.

Super Bowl Props
1-Unit Play
Team To Have The Most Penalty Yards Against Them ? Giants (-115)

0.5-Unit Plays
Tame To Score The Shortest Field Goal Of The Game ? Giants (-120)
Brandon Jacobs Total Receiving Yards ? ?Over? 12.5
First Score Of The Game Will Be ? Field Goal or Safety (+180)

 

[GIANTS007]

Vegas Sports Informer

SUPER BOWL 42 PLAYS

3 Unit Play. #102 Take New England ?12 over NY Giants (Sunday 2/3 6:30 PM FOX)

The Patriots stand 60 minutes from the first 19-0 season in NFL history! The New York Giants are seeking to play spoiler to this NFL History mark. Will the Giants do this? NO! New England has had two weeks to prepare and giving this Patriots offense and defense two weeks could be a bad thing for the Giants. If New England scores first this game could get ugly and I feel the Patriots win this game by double digits. New England is 40-19-3 when playing on grass.

4 Unit Play. #101 Take Under 54 New England and NY Giants (Sunday 2/3 6:30 PM FOX)

Plaxico predicted a low scoring game and now I will predict a low scoring game. But not too low! New England will score over 24 points but will the Giants be able to score. New England is 5-14 O/U in their last 19 playoff games. The Giants are 1-4 O/U in their last 5 playoff games. Here is my predicted score New England 31 and NY Giants 14.

4 Unit Play. Take Under 14 ? 4th Quarter Wagering (Sunday 1/20 6:30 PM FOX)

My SB Prop Play of the Day! This game could be out of reach by the 4th quarter so I?m hoping for a lot of rushing and the clock moving. I?m hoping New England has this game in the bag by 4th so I can just watch Tom Brady taking a knee.

6 Unit Play. Take Kobe Bryant (LAL) PTS, Rebounds, and Assists +9 ? over Total Points scored by the Patriots/Giants. (Sunday 1/20 6:30 PM FOX)

Kobe Bryant is playing the Washington Wizards on the road on Sunday and I?m looking at an Over/Under around the low 200?s. Kobe Bryant is averaging 27.8ppg, 6.2 rebs, and 5.3 assists and I?m getting +9 ?. In 2006 on a NFL Playoff weekend Kobe threw up 81 points. Hey Kobe! Do it again and try to overshadow the Super Bowl.

 

[GIANTS007]

Strike Point Sports Picks

Super Bowl XLII Plays

5-Unit Play. #101 Take New York +12 over New England (6:30 pm)

The Giants covered in week 17 as double digit underdogs, and in the big game they will come through as well. New York has come on extremely strong this playoffs, and Eli Manning has played the best of any quarterback this postseason. The Giants have the pass rush on the defensive line to get in the box and pressure Tom Brady. We'll also see a strong, two headed rushing attack in Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw that can keep the chains moving and control the clock. Similiar to what we saw with the Chargers, the G-Men can run the ball, establish tempo and have success on the defensive side of the ball. The only difference will be that New York will not settle for field goals. They will have success in the red zone and turn drives into points. The Giants will score at least 24 points in this rematch, and they will score the cover in Arizona.

Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports

 

[GIANTS007]

Stryker



4* KEY RELEASE ? Sunday, February 3rd at 6:20 PM EST

#102 NEW ENGLAND (-12) over NY Giants by 21

Respect is certainly given to New York and the run the Giants have put together to reach the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, it's not going to be enough to keep me off New England in Super Bowl XLII.

Back on December 29th, in the final week of the regular season, these two teams met at the Meadowlands and put on quite a show. New England escaped with a 38-35 victory and finished 2007 with a perfect 16-0 SU record. The G-Men get another shot to erase that goose egg from Patriots loss column. Unfortunately, this rematch won't be anywhere near as close.

According to my NFL database, Super Bowl favorites priced at -7' or more are a profitable 6-3-1 ATS dating back to the 1980 season. That's not a huge sample but certainly noteworthy considering the Pats are almost two-touchdown favorites!

There are other technical reasons to like "The Brady Bunch" here too. Since 1982, non-division road (or neutral) teams are a wallet-breaking 2-11 SU and ATS provided they enter off three (or more) straight up underdog wins. If our "play against" side owns a won/loss percentage greater than .500, this technical situation crashes to a shocking 0-10 SU and ATS. New York is locked into this nasty set.

The fact that New England has failed to cover the pointspread five consecutive times is appealing too. Off those ATS losses, the general public will shy away from laying this large number with the Patriots. That, to me, sounds like the perfect time to get on board.

One thing the Boys from Boston have done is played well when matched up against an opponent that enters with momentum. In fact, when battling a foe that arrives off two or more straight up victories, the Pats are a solid 43-14 SU and 32-22-2 ATS including a superb 25-13-1 ATS in this set coming off a non-division affair.

Since the start of the 2002 season, the AFC has been in control of the NFC. In fact, AFC favorites priced at -7' or more are a profitable 21-9 ATS provided they're matched up against an NFC foe that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .333. The Patriots have been the NFL's best all year long. They'll prove that one last time with an awesome performance in Super Bowl XXLII. Take New England.

 

[GIANTS007]

AAA

NFL: New York Giants at New England Patriots - Giants +12 -110
Game Date: 2/3/2008
Note: This is the longest I have ever made to make a Super Bowl Pick and I have done that for a number of reasons. First and foremost were some personal issues with a death in the family, along with a Flu Bug that got me down for a while. But the primary reason why I have waited is because this is one of the toughest one's to handicap that I have seen in many years. I am not going to fill your head with statistical information because that is not what this game is all about. The Super Bowl is a different animal than any other game this year and it has to looked at as such. The team that is going to win Sunday is the one that executes the best and it is as simple as that. I believe that team will be the Giants.

We have watched the Patriots have a marvalous year and they have done so in undefeated fashion. That is an incredible accomplishment and they have felt the pressure of winning greatly over the last 8 to 10 games played. While they have responded to that pressure well enough to win, they have had some scares along that road, and they have had some very close victories. Without going over each "Scare" you know the games I am talking about and it is evident to me that this team is not God. Certainly one of those games were against these Giants in a 38-35 win at New York. Statistically over the last 10 played, they were marginally better than their opponents and in 5 of those, they were outrushed during the course of the game. One of those was to these New Yorksters, and therein lies the primary reason why I will be grabbing the points. We thought the retirement of Kiki Barber would hurt New York, but up steps Brandon Jacobs, who has been a tough guy to stop and gives the Giants a well needed running game that all teams need to compete in this league. This 265 lb mountain of a man is capable of breaking the big one, but is also a solid runner inside, and able to get the tough yards. With him the Giants have the 3rd best rushing offense in the NFL. They also have a defense that rivals that of their opponents Sunday. These two things are the reason why New York is an amazing 10-1 on the road this year and that is almost as noteworthy as what NE has done this year. This shows me that they can win under adversity and they do the right things needed to be right where they are, playing for the NFL Title.

Oddsmakers do not agree, and that is going to work to our benefit in this game. While the Pats must win to have a successful season, the Giants only need to show up. That is a psychological advantage for us and our team because they have been bombarded the last 2 weeks with media telling us how New England is just too good to beat. Eli Manning scares the shit out of me sometimes, and if he has a bad day, as he has been known to have, we might be toast. As long as he does not lose this game by himself, the points should hold up for us with NYG, who has good enough D, good enough running and offensive line play to make it happen. Hopefully Eli is getting good advice from his Dad and his brother. Archie Manning grew up about 10 miles from where I did and I was able to get a photo taken of the Young Manning boys standing outside their Grandma's House when they were I believe 10 and 6 years old. I got it at an Estate Sale for 50 cents at the house where Archie grew up. I will be placing that above the Big Screen Sunday and I will have to grab the overinflated points in this one. Hopefully we will have our 7th straight Super Bowl Win.

AAA Sports Handicapping

 

[GIANTS007]

brandon lovell

quintuple your wager game of career

50* patriots -7 1st half

 

[the duke]

Huddle Up Sports


Super Bowl Lock:
New England -12


HIGH ROLLER TOTAL
New England/NY Giants over 54


PROP ODD WINNERS
***** 5* Rating *****
123 Total rushing yards by NY Giants over 97' (-135)
174 Jacobs rushing yards over 55' (-175)
180 Burress longest reception over 20' (-115)
215 Welker Receiving yards over 75' (-115)
229 Gostkowski total points over 8' (+120)

**** 4* Rating ****
171 Bradshaw Total Receptions over 1/2 (-175)
173 Jacobs first rushing attempt over 3' yards (-110)
181 Burress total receptions over 4' (-145)
204 Maroney pass receptions over 1 (+160)
216 Welker total receptions over 7' (+140)



*** 3* Rating ***
121 Will Jacobs score a TD: Yes (-110)
160 Longest TD of game will be under 47' yards (-115)
187 Boss receiving yards under 20' (-115)
196 Brady passing yards over 294 (-110)
200 Maroney Total rushing yards over 81' (-110)
211 Moss total receiving yards under 92' (-130)
217 Welkers first reception over 9' yards (-110)


** 2* Rating **
113 Will either team have 300 yard passer: YES (-140)
115 Will there be a score in the first 7' minutes: YES (-230)
139 Total Net yards in game over 709' (-140)
172 Bradshaw rushing + Receiving yards over 50' (-150)
177 Jacobs Longest rush from scrimmage over 13' (+100)
178 Jacobs rushing attempts over 15 (-125)

* 1* Rating *
136 Total first downs in game by both teams under 42' (-110)
142 Will largest lead of game be over 17': YES (-150)
143 Total Number of players to have pass attempt over 2' (+200)
189 Boss Longest reception under 12' yards (-105)

 

[the duke]

THE LOGICAL APPROACH
(newsletter)


The Forecast, Selection and Recommendations for Super Bowl XLII


Some thoughts about the pointspread for Super Bowl XLII. Here's something to think about.
The 1994 San Francisco 49ers were the largest favorite in Super Bowl history, closing as 18 ? point favorites over the San Diego Chargers. In the 1994 season the 49ers were 13-3 and outscored their foes 505-296 while San Diego finished 11-5, winning the AFC West and outscoring their foes 381-306.

Now we have the New England Patriots of 2007, 16-0 and outscoring their foes 589-274, favored by nearly a touchdown less than the '94 49ers. New England's opponents, the Giants, are a Wild Card team that went 10-6 in the regular season, outscoring their opponents 373-351.

San Francisco won Super Bowl XXIX over San Diego by 23 points, 49-26. One can certainly argue that this season's Patriots are better than the 1994 San Francisco 49ers. One can also argue that this season's Giants are not as good as the 1994 Chargers who were 5-3 at home and 6-2 on the road that season.

Ultimately we can throw out the statistics, ignore the matchups and cast aside the many valid reasons why the New York Giants should be more than competitive with New England in Super Bowl XLII.

Rather, this is all about greatness and New England's quest to end their perfect season with an exclamation point rather than a question mark. This is their "rendezvous with destiny." Their date with history.

New England will end their season with an "AND" rather than a "BUT".

Not as in "New England was 19-0 in 2007 BUT ended their season by struggling through the second half of the season, winning the Super Bowl in an unimpressive manner."

Rather, the storyline will read "New England went 19-0 in 2007 AND capped their season with one of the most impressive Super Bowl performances ever."

Greatness defines champions. And champions are defined by their greatness, saving their best for last, when it is needed most. New England ends the season with a bang, not a whimper.

Not lost on coach Belichick and his troops is a sense of history and where they may fit in that history.

Aside from those who proclaim the 1972 Miami Dolphins or the series of Pittsburgh teams in the 1970'2 as the greatest of all time there are two teams which often come up in such a discussion. The 1985 Chicago Bears won Super Bowl XX 46-10 over a previous incarnation of these New England Patriots. At the time, the Bears set the Super Bowl record for most points scored and the largest margin of victory.

Four seasons later the 1989 San Francisco 49ers capped a 17-2 season by eclipsing the Bears' Super Bowl performance by setting the still standing record of 55 points and a 45 point margin of victory.

Rested, healthy and playing in ideal conditions look for the Patriots to rout a New York Giants team that, while they've played well in the Playoffs, are still a rather ordinary football team. They outscored the opposition by just 22 points over the regular season.

Given his meticulous attention to detail, Bill Belichick will know precisely why Eli Manning and the Giants succeeded in their three playoff wins and why he and his team struggled during the regular season, especially at home, and in seasons past. New England will play with the swagger that marked their start to this season and with the confidence that they can score on every possession. You shouldn't bet that they will score on every possession. Yet at the same time, don't bet against it either! Punter Chris Hanson may see little action.

New England gets the chance to cement their legacy and put an exclamation point on their dynastic run this decade that will result in a fourth Super Bowl title in seven seasons. Replacing the 17-0 '72 Dolphins as the 'old' standard, the 19-0 '07 Patriots will become the new standard of excellence.

Way back in 1935 songwriters Joe Burke and Edgar Leslie penned the popular Jazz tune "Moon Over Miami", introduced to the rock and roll generation a half century later by Bill Haley & His Comets. Well now a new tune is about to be penned titled "Move Over Miami" as the unbeaten 1972 Dolphins are about to be joined by the 2007 New England Patriots as the NFL's only perfect teams in the Super Bowl era.
In a season in which they set numerous records that will be hard to match, New England caps their perfect 19-0 season by setting two more records.

The Patriots win Super Bowl XLII 63-13, making NEW ENGLAND a 4 Star Selection and the OVER a 3 Star Selection .


SUPER BOWL PROPOSITIONS

One of the features that adds enjoyment to the Super Bowl is the annual POP to which we are treated. That's the Plethora Of Propositions that enable bettors to have action on virtually every play of the game. In fact, several Sports Books even offer a proposition related to the coin toss so it's possible to have action even BEFORE the game kicks off! (It's phrased as "which team will receive the opening kickoff").

Although the Super Bowl may be the most heavily bet game of the year it is generally not the most bettable game of the year. So much is known about both teams and so much attention is paid to almost every angle that most of the wagering possibilities may involve the many propositions that will be posted at the sports books in town, rather than just on the team to cover or whether the game will go Over or Under the total. Many of the 'props' are innovative and entertaining and are designed to provide action throughout the game. It is literally possible to have action on every single play of the Super Bowl if you play enough of the props.

Much of the success of "prop" wagering dates back to Chicago's appearance in Super Bowl XX. In January 1986 the Bears were heavily favored over New England. But one special wager was offered -- will Chicago defensive lineman William "Refrigerator" Perry score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Then Bears coach Mike Ditka had used Perry several times in the backfield, teaming with the great Walter Payton. Because of the lopsided pointspread in the game, novel ways to attract action were considered. As memory serves, the "Yes" was originally priced in the neighborhood of roughly 15 to 1 that Perry would score a TD. The novelty of such a unique wagering proposition caused an overwhelming number of bettors to take a flyer on that prop. At kickoff the odds had fallen to the vicinity of 4 or 5 to 1 and, sure enough, Perry did score a touchdown in the Bears' 46-10 rout of the Patriots. While the books lost money on that specific prop, they won a huge following and over the past 20 + years one of most anticipated events of the time between the Conference Title games and the Super Bowl is the release of the many props that can be wagered upon. From what used to be a page or two the offerings at some books fill more than a dozen double sided long sheets. Not only are there props involving the two teams in the game, some creative bookmakers offer props that tie certain events in the Super Bowl to other sports being played over Super Bowl weekend, both within the US and internationally.

A few thoughts on the multitude of propositions available at virtually every sports book in Nevada.

What began as a novelty over 20 years ago has become a phenomenon that is eagerly awaited every season. The growth has been geometric with several properties offering over one hundred different props. At the Las Vegas Hilton, for example, 21 full sized 8 ? by 14 inch pages filled with nothing but props are available.

A fair amount of creativity goes into the development of these props and considerable research is done in order to offer propositions that on the surface appear even. The use of a 20 cents line, or often a 30 cents line, ensures that the Sports Books will enjoy a healthy profit when all the results are in and the accounting is completed.

For the most part the props have been looked upon as secondary ways to bet the game, more often for fun than for huge monetary gains. But there may be some solid opportunities for nice profits as well.

Sure, there are professionals who scour the city for the best prices on the props and who have done painstaking research to uncover even the slightest of mathematical, or 'expected value' edges. And kudos to those who have the time, bankroll and resources to uncover those edges.

But for the majority of those who bet on the game the props merely serve to add enjoyment to the overall experience with the chance for earning a few extra bucks as the game unfolds.

In looking at the many propositions that will be available on the game it's important to note that there are two major types of prop plays. The first is a head to head matchup such as which QB will have more total yards or whether the total number of sacks will be over or under a specified number. The other type of proposition is one that has more than two possible outcomes such as the player who will score the first TD, the margin of victory by the winning team or the combination of the first half result with the total game result. These propositions offer more attractive odds since there are several possible outcomes while the head to head matchups are priced more along the lines of a fairly competitive baseball game in which the favored part of the proposition requires the bettor to lay around -160 and the underdog player gets +130 or +140.

Some of the props are fairly straightforward and involve just two options. An example would be whether or not there will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half. Your choices are either Yes or No. Usually the "Yes" will be favored for this specific prop. A similar type prop involving an individual player might be whether Giants QB Manning will have more or less than 21 ? pass completions in the game. Most of these two option props have low odds attached to them so that you might have to lay - 140 or - 150 on the 'favored' part of the prop while getting back + 120 or + 110 on the 'underdog' part of the prop. Many props are minus 110 either way. Some will have - 120/Even Money attached to the prop.

Props with larger payoffs involve multiple options. The most popular of these would include the player to score the first touchdown. Here you can find odds of from 5 or 6 to 1 to as high as 50 to 1 or more. If you believe a New England player will score the first TD you might want to consider a play on TE Watson (10-1). For the Giants perhaps you might look at RB Jacobs (15-1). Ann oddball prop in connection with the first TD of the game is whether the player scoring that initial TD will be wearing an odd or even numbered jersey. Now THAT's creativity - and if you take the time to fully research it you might find an edge.

If you don't want to guess the specific player to score first you might consider a prop that simply asks you to pick the team scoring first and whether that score will be a rushing TD, passing TD, "other" TD or a FG.

There are literally hundreds of propositions that can be wagered upon. Considering the many variations that number increases into the thousands. Every play will affect the outcome of multiple props. They are offered as ways to further enhance the experience of watching the game and provide opportunities for profits.

The best advice for playing the props is to shop, shop and shop some more . Each property will put its individual slant on the props and there will be opportunities for getting better value by comparing the props at the different properties.

The preference here is to look for head to head props as opposed to selecting one result from a list of 5, 10 or even more possible outcomes such as the player to score the first TD of the game or the combination of winning team and final margin. Although the payoff on these multiple outcome props far exceed the head to head props you have a much better chance of collecting on the props that offer just two possible outcomes. A secondary preference within the head to head props is to look to play props that pay even money or better since for the most part the nature of the Super Bowl makes many of the props no better than 50/50 random occurrences such as the team to punt first or to make the initial first down. At the same time a well thought out analysis of how the game might unfold can be profitable in quite a number of the props.

Another way to approach props is to pair them off. An example is to look at playing whether each QB's first pass will be either complete or incomplete. Usually books have this proposition priced with 'complete' as the favorite for both quarterbacks. Playing the 'incomplete' at a plus price for each means that you only need one of them to hit to show a profit. Considering that both quarterbacks are likely to face considerable pressure and perhaps have a case of nerves early in the game suggests that the likelihood of both passers completing their first passes is less than the possibility that one or both of them will throw incompletions initially. At the Hilton, for example, the line for Manning's first pass to be complete opened -160, the incomplete +140. For Brady the complete opened -250, the incomplete +210. Not surprisingly, the "complete" has already been bet up for both QBs, making the "incomplete" even more attractive. For these so called "tandem" props you need just one of the two to hit in order to show an overall profit on the pair.

Propositions concerning the last team to score in the first half, the team making the most field goals and similarly worded props should be approached by looking to play on the underdog half of the prop due to the uncertain status of the conditions that might develop during the game such as which team will receive the opening kickoff. Recall that the line has New England a 12 point favorite. The "value" will be on the Giants in many of the propositions because the public will have an easier time making a case for the Patriots as the 'favored' team in props involving things happening first. The reality is that a great number of such propositions are independent of who you think will win the game or perform better.

Finally there are the inter-sport propositions that match up an event from the Super Bowl against an event from the NBA, NHL, European soccer, PGA golf, etc. Again, some astute analysis can provide an edge in making wagers on these 'fun' propositions. Surely from amongst the literally hundreds of propositions being offered even the most cynical person can find something to his or her liking.

Some of the initial thoughts on this season's props include the following.

One interesting tandem prop this season involves both punters and whether each will have at least one touchback. The "No" is a solid favorite for both. Whereas New England's offense is so potent and they often opt to "go for it" rather than punt on fourth down when in enemy territory the Patriot part of the prop might not offer much value. The Giants, however, are more likely to punt from around the New England 35 or 40 yard line rather than go for a first down or attempt a FG since failure would give the potent Pat's offense great field position. Thus a punt might well head into the endzone if P Feagles is unable to hit the coffin corner. At a price of + 175 the Yes for a touchback occurring has value.

Above all, remember that in the eyes of the most serious, professional bettors the Super Bowl is just another game and one that often offers little wagering value because the line is strong and heavily influenced by 'public' money.

Have fun. Enjoy the game. Good luck. And remember that the 2008 NFL season is just six months away.

 

[the duke]

Carlo Campanella comp

Game: New York Giants at New England Patriots Feb 3 2008 6:20PM

Prediction: New England Patriots

Reason: The most PROFITABLE wagering oppertunity on this Sunday's Super Bowl is on the TOTAL, it's backed by my Exclsuive Situation that's 100% PERFECT at 8-0 since the 1992 NFL season- It HAS NOT LOST in 15 seasons!!!

Of course, you'll also want some action on the winning side, so I'm laying with the Patriots. Due to the NY Giants 10-1 road record and impressive victories over the Cowboys and Packers, the line on the Big Game is very reasonable...it could have easily been more then 2 TDs if things went slightly different. Toss in the fact that New England is 35-18 ATS after a game in which they allowed 14 points or less behind Head Coach Bill Belichick.

7* Play On New England

 

[MP8621]

7-2 TOPS! 44-14 76% NFL! 80-30 73% FOOTBALL! SUPERBOWL XLII is the STRONGEST SUPERBOWL EVER! Whopping 11.8 point variance! NOW RELEASING!

anyone have sports investorts from sportswire

 

[neteagle]

Advance Analysis

Advance Analysis

3* N.Y. Giants (play's rated 1*-5*)

 

[gambler705]

ATS

(Courtesy of MMST)

ATS LOCK CLUB
4 New England - 12
3 Teaser NE -6 and Over 47 1/2

ATS FINANCIAL
4 Over 53 1/2 NE/Giants

 

[Deano's Free B]

Deano's Free B

Deano's Free B

Josh Dean

**50 Dimes out today**

Record: 45-28 OA 1-1 Yesterday >20-15-2 NBA<

Top Picks: 15-8-2


30* Mavs +5

15* NEW YORK GIANTS

5* OVER 52- IF IT RISES TO 55 DONT EVEN TAKE IT!

 

[Bootlegbobby]

Ferringo is passing today.

 

[the duke]

Point Train

2/3/2008 5:30:00 PM

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-12) over New York Giants

Rating: 3 units


NEW ENGLAND (-) over New York at 6:30 pm EST The mere idea that the Giants can upset the Patriots in this game is absolutely ridiculous. Countless ?experts? have predicted a Giants upset in Super Bowl XLII, which has only made a hungry New England team even hungrier. For whatever reason, people are starting to doubt the undefeated Patriots, which have given this game even better value. The line has fallen to -12 after opening at -14 and could continue to fall. New England has history in its sights and won?t let up until it has been set. Some will point to the regular season finale between these teams as a testament to how close these teams are in relation to ability. That game was not a true indicator of how this game will play out. First, it was in New York in less than favorable conditions. The Super Bowl is on a neutral field in ideal weather conditions. Look at New England?s season and you?ll see its most impressive numbers coming in the first half of the season when the weather was its best. The Patriots averaged 41.4 ppg through their first 8 games and could very well reach that mark in this game. Another major factor in this game will be the experience edge that New England owns. This will be the fourth Super Bowl in 7 years for the Pats with many of the core players remaining intact. The Giants, from top to bottom, have very little experience in a game of this magnitude. The biggest difference comes at the quarterback position. New York QB Eli Manning may have proven some of his doubters wrong over the last month but he still pales in comparison to New England?s Tom Brady. New England HC Bill Belichick and this Patriots team is one that, when given two weeks to prepare, is practically unbeatable. Few, if any, coaches game plan like Belichick and he will have his team well-prepared for this contest. New England went to the Super Bowl three times in the previous six years and left with the title each time. This game will be no different. Ride with the Patriots as they finish off their undefeated run.

Prop Bets OVER 10.5 yards Ahmad Bradshaw longest run: Bradshaw has come on like gangbusters down the stretch, averaging 5.6 ypc in his last four games. New England has struggled against the scat-back type of backs this year and that?s exactly what Bradshaw brings to the table.

2nd Half (- ? points) +115: Eight of the last nine Super Bowls have seen more points scored in the second half than the first half. Teams often come out nervous for this game and settle down after halftime, which has led to more second-half points. That will again be the case in this one.

OVER 6.5 tackles Gibril Wilson: Wilson, New York?s starting safety, is second on the Giants in tackles despite missing three games this year. He tallied 7 or more tackles in 10 of the 15 games he played, including 7.3 tpg in the playoffs. New England?s pass-happy offense will give him plenty of opportunities to make tackles

 

[the duke]

Michael Cannon

Super Bowl XLII Winner

100 Dime
GIANTS

Take the points with the Giants in Super Bowl XLII.
This is too many points for the Patriots to be laying. I know they have the record-setting offense and they?re undefeated, but this isn?t the Miami Dolphins they?re playing in Week 7, this is the NFC champion New York Giants.
A Giants team that just happened to set an NFL record themselves by becoming the first team to win 10 road games in a single season. A team that just happened to go on a run through the playoffs after battling New England in the regular season finale.
The Giants remind me an awful lot of another team that happened to get hot at the right time and rolled through the playoffs, winning every game on the road?the Pittsburgh Steelers of 2005.
There are a lot of similarities between the two, and as you recall the Steelers used that momentum to win Super Bowl XL over the NFC?s top-seeded Seattle Seahawks.
Now I?m not saying New York is going to pull off the outright win here, but it?s not out of the realm of possibility.
What you have to consider is what their chances are of doing it, and that?s how I came to my conclusion that the points were the easy play here.
The Giants have the ability to get pressure on Tom Brady with their front four, allowing the linebackers and safeties to help out with the underneath game the Patriots love to use.
Now, Randy Moss is a weapon that?s been taken away from Brady so far during the playoffs, and if the Giants can use free safety James Butler to help out with over the top coverage, then the Giants can be successful defensively tonight.
Brady has done a good job of not getting impatient and forcing the deep ball to Moss, so the Giants have to stay disciplined and not allow any YAC when the Patriots? QB dumps it off underneath.
Offensively the Giants have gotten to the big dance courtesy of Eli Manning?s maturation throughout the playoffs. He hasn?t turned the ball over and he has to continue that pattern tonight.
The Giants can keep the Patriots defense honest by running Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, which will keep the pressure off Manning. But I truly believe Manning is more than capable of stepping it up tonight and leading this offense when they need him the most.
It?s funny, but Manning has gotten better with addition by subtraction. More specifically, the retirement of Tiki Barber and the injury to Jeremy Shockey.
Eli no longer has to worry about appeasing any egos here. He can play his game and lead this offense without worrying about getting the ball so many times to those two.
As a result, the Giants are playing better as a team.
The Patriots keep on winning, but the pressure of completing an undefeated season looks like it?s taking its toll on them. Since about Week 12, each opponent has given the Patriots everything they could handle, and their margin of victory has been shrinking as a result.
New England has failed to cover seven of its last eight games, including the playoffs.
The Giants, conversely, have gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight including the postseason.
This line is just too inflated in my opinion, and if you go back through New England?s history in the Super Bowl, you?ll find they?ve won all three by three points each time.
Expect another close one tonight, as the Giants stay well within the number and give New England a scare.



5 Dime Bonus
GIANTS MONEYLINE

Yes, I?m going to take a small chance here. At this price, why not?
Be sure you bet this accordingly. Don?t go crazy putting a lot down on this play.
This is designed for a maximum payout at a small, small cost.
With the moneyline at about +400 for the Giants, let?s take a chance at scoring a big return should the Giants pull off the upset.
Take the Giants on the moneyline as your 5 dime bonus bet.

 

[the duke]

MR A

Sunday, February 3rd, 2008 6:30 PM EST.


New England Patriots -12


New York will get another chance at ending the Patriots' path to perfection. New England won 38-35 in its final game of the regular season, rallying from a 12-point second-half deficit against the Giants. The rolling Giants have won 10 straight road games, going 9-1 against the spread, including three playoff road victories against division winners (Tampa, Dallas and Green Bay), but the Giants secondary is vulnerable and will be facing football's best pass offense led by Tom Brady.
The Patriots are a better team and maybe the best team the NFL has thus far ever seen. Expect Manning to make mistakes when the Patriots start pulling away. New England will make a statement and close out the season with a strong and impressive effort.



GINA

February 3rd 6:30 p.m. est.
New York Giants (13-6) vs. New England Patriots (18-0)
University of Phoenix Stadium - Glendale, Arizona

I tried to convince myself that the hot Giants with a convincing playoff record would make this a close battle and possibly win. However, the Brady bunch is a superior team and has been here before. Look for Brady to connect with Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk and tear the Giants' secondary. The Patriots make history.


New England Patriots - 12

 

[the duke]

FRANKS ROSENTHAL


SUPER BOWL XLII GLENDALE, AZ
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 3RDG-MEN VS PATRIOTS.

NO LOCKS ON THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH. THE
DISPARITY, ELI MANNIG (56.1) 23 TD'S & 20 INT'S VS TOM BRADY (68.9) WITH 50 TD'S & JUST 8 INT'S.

OTHERWISE, THEY'RE FAIRLY CLOSE. GREAT RECEIVERS ON BOTH SIDES. THE PATRIOTS ARE SUSPECT WITH THEIR LINEBACKERS. NOT QUITE AS QUICK AS THEY WERE IN THE PAST, OTHER THAN MIKE VRABEL. THE G-MEN CAN POUND THE BALL WITH JACOBS & WARDS. MARONEY & MORRIS, A BIT QUICKER THAN THE G-MEN, BUT NOT AS LETHAL.

THE WEATHER CALLS FOR A HIGH OF 54, LOW 43, WITH LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER, THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE 20/25 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH COULD HAMPER THE TOTALS, PERHAPS THE SIDE INCLUDED.


+13 ON THE G-MEN & UNDER 55 ON THE TOTALS.
GOOD LUCK!