SUPER BOWL SUNDAY: FEB. 3RD 2008

the duke

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THE MAX


Super Bowl: It is certainly a unique situation to have two teams who played each other in the regular
season finale match up against one another in the Super Bowl. Remember the role that special teams
played in that one. The Patriots actually dominated the game at the line of scrimmage. If you discount two
?take a knee? possessions at the end of the half and game, New England had 9 drives where they were
trying to do something. They scored on 7 of them. 6 were drives of 50 yards or more, while one was only
39 yards. The Giants had only 4 scoring drives, though all of them were TD drives of 60 yards or more.
New York played well that night but New England won first downs 27-19 and yardage 390-316. New
England didn?t make the Giants work very hard for their 35 points, as the Giants scored a point for every 9.1
yards they gained. That kickoff return was huge in keeping that contest close.
Early Prop Play: Legend has it the first Super Bowl prop was the ?will The Fridge score a TD?? prop that
was universally pounded by the betting public in Las Vegas. Maybe Mike Ditka cashed on that one and
that?s why he didn?t offer Walter Payton the opportunity to score a Super Bowl TD. As we communicated
with you regarding our ?longest punt over 42? yards? prop, a lot of sports books put out weak numbers on
these things. You just have to be in the right place at the right time with those. By now nearly every mistake
has been exposed and the numbers have been pounded into place.







Super Bowl XLII @ Glendale, AZ
February 3, 2008, 6:30PM
New England Patriots vs. New York Giants
Opening Line: Patriots ?14
Current Line: Patriots ?12, 53?
Though the universally hoped-for Favre return to the Super
Bowl didn?t happen, there are a lot of interesting subplots
to this game. And it starts with the coaches. Close friends
from their time with the Giants Tom Coughlin (then a wide
receivers coach) and Bill Belichick (secondary coach) were
close friends and colleagues in their time together with the
Giants. After Big Blue?s second Super Bowl win (the upset
over the Bills), both left for head coaching jobs, Coughlin
with Boston College and Belichick with the Browns. When
Parcells left that spring with health problems, the Giants
promoted Ray Handley.
Belichick?s competency is unquestioned, but 12-months
ago most Giants observers were in shock that Coughlin had
been invited back for the 2007 season. Many of his players
hated him, but Coughlin made efforts to become more
player-friendly this season (showing a warmer side at
times, expressing a sense of humor, a players advisory
council, etc.) and the departure of Tiki ?Me-ki? Barber
helped with chemistry. It was also a blessing to have
Michael Strahan hold out from training camp, so he didn?t
have time to let his bitterness ferment during the dog days
of July and August. You wouldn?t know it from his facial
expressions on the sideline or his chewing out of place
kicker Tynes after his misses Sunday, but his better
relationships with his players are one key to the success of
the Giants.
The Giants 10 straight road wins in the same season is a
record that will truly never be broken, as any team on that
kind of road streak in the future will have a better home
record than New York?s 3-5 and therefore have home
games during the playoffs. Manning didn?t really play well
in those road wins, as he had 2 interceptions in four
different road games this season and 6 of his 7 lost
fumbles occurred on the road. He had 13 TD?s and 11
INT?s at home and 10 TD?s and 9 INT?s on the road. It
was defense and the running game (8 of 12 games with
100+ rushing yards were on the road) that led to New
York?s surging on the highway.
The Patriots success is built on the old (5 players starting
their fourth Super Bowl), and the new (different starters at
right tackle, right guard, and fullback for all 4 Super Bowls,
along with 6 different starters and cornerback and 6
different wide receivers in the big game). Pulling in topnotch
talent like Adalius Thomas, Randy Moss, and Wes
Welker in the most recent offseason was a bonus. There
are veteran players thrilled to be here, young players
thrilled to be here, and a core of veteran leaders who know
what it takes and what to expect once they get here. They
won?t be intimidated by the Super Bowl setting.
After relentless pressure from Michael Strahan, Osi
Umenyiora, Justin Tuck (and what a 24-year old building
block he is), and their cohorts, Cowboys QB Tony Romo
talked about changing his approach to take the Giants pass
rush into account. Tom Brady, with a high ankle sprain
and three interceptions against the Chargers, is now seen
as being vulnerable. But let?s remember that it was a cold,
gusty day in Foxoborough on the day of the AFC
Championship game and this game will be played with the
retractable roof of University of Phoenix Stadium closed.
Against the Jaguars Brady was 26 of 28 and struggling
against the Chargers (best secondary in the league?) with
that wind is no black mark. But he already played well
against the Giants pass rush once, and the Giants
secondary is far from world class.
Despite his mistake-free football in the playoffs, Eli
Manning can?t scare the Patriots. Belichick is always
looking to take away what the opponents do best, and
already has had success in shutting down a two-headed
running attack this postseason, as the Jaguars Fred Taylor
and Maurice Jones-Drew were held to 66 yards on 19
carries. And the fact that the Patriots practiced twice in
pads during the off week indicates that run defense was an
area of priority. There has been room in the secondary for
opposing passers lately, and Plaxico Burress has been an
absolute warrior playing through his injuries. But Rodney
Harrison and Asante Samuel are brilliant at baiting
opposing quarterbacks into mistakes. It is unlikely that
Manning will keep up his mistake free ways. But he should
be able to move the ball through the air.
Brady?s ankle appears to be OK, and he?s no Vince Young,
he just needs to be able to move deftly in the pocket, as
he is rarely a run threat. Keep an eye on the flu bug that
kept some Giants out of practice over the weekend, though
there?s plenty of time for Giants to get healthy. But for the
most part, folks are healthy.
The last two double-digit pointspread favorites have lost
their Super Bowls (2001 Patriots upset Rams, 1997
Broncos upset Packers). And the Patriots appear to have
come back to the field (from a pointspread perspective,
though they easily could have covered both playoff
games). But the fact remains that the Patriots are 18-0
while outgaining their opponents by 114 yards per game
and a full yard per play. The Giants have been outgained
8 times this season and don?t outplay their opponents on
the line of scrimmage, gaining and allowing 5.2 yards per
play while being +22 yards per game in raw yardage. The
unique setting of the Super Bowl favors a Patriots team
that has 5 starters that have been here all 4 times to lead
their teammates.
But while the Patriots are the better team, the recent
pointspread malaise (8-0 to the spread in the first half, 2-8
since, and laying double digits in their last 9 games) and
the fact that they?re laying big points again makes them a
dicey proposition. But the edge that New England has in
the passing game makes scoring points likely. New
England gains 8.0 yards per pass attempt while allowing
5.9. The Giants gain only 5.9 yards per pass attempt
while allowing 6.2. Those passing edges haven?t helped
the Pats? pointspread results lately but they?re playing in
perfect conditions once again and have got a ton more big
game experience than the Giants do. So we won?t be
tempted by those big points. The side is a pass and we
have a lean to the over as we think both quarterbacks will
have some production as we look for the teams to bounce
back from low scoring games in poorer weather.





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the duke

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Brandon Lang.

Here is the full analysis:


100 DIME


NEW YORK GIANTS



Free Pick - OVER



Final Score: 30-27 Patriots





7 FUN PROP BETS - prices and odds will of course vary



These are not rated selections and do not count toward my profit/loss statement. But so many guys like props I always release a few that I personally enjoy.



1) Coint Toss - Tails

2) National anthem : OVER 1:42

3) Burress MVP - 8/1

4) Jacobs MVP - 10/1

5) Burress First TD +800

6) Giants score first +155

7) Team to score first won't win game +180





Let me first start out by saying once again that this one single game has defined my career. It has made me who I am in this business.



You don?t go 15-0-2 with the 17 Super Bowl selections you have been asked to pick unless you understand the difference between this game and any other that these two teams have played all year.



I have been asked time and time again what my system is, my formula, my magic with picking this winner every time I have been asked to do it my entire life. My answer is always the same:



I just have a feel for this one game. I can't explain it nor will I ever try to. It is just something you would have to feel for yourself. 15-0-2 speaks for itself.



I clearly feel the Giants and double digits is great value and if things fall their way, they can shock the world Sunday. I truly believe that.



Now, I understand the easy play here would be to lay the number with the Patriots and leave it at that, but I just can't do that.



I didn't get to 15-0-2 for my career in this game without knowing when the underdog is the play and I am 100% confident the dog in this game is the play.



To have a streak of 15 in a row, to have never lost this game, you have got to know when the dog is the play and on Sunday, this is not only a dog but a live one at that.



So without further delay, enjoy my analysis of my 16th straight Super Bowl winner. I had fun writing it, that is for sure.





100 DIME



NEW YORK GIANTS



Free Pick - OVER



Final Score: 30-27 Patriots



It wouldn't surprise me if the Giants shocked the world today.



Let me first take you back in time to a game that really made the Giants the play here for me and it wasn't the first meeting between these two.



The Patriots had just come out of their bye week after beating the Colts the week before and went to Buffalo.



They destroyed the Bills 56-10 in as big domination as I have ever seen and I truly believe that was the highlight of their perfection as a team.



In other words, that was the time they were playing their absolute best. I mean, best.



Here came the Eagles off their bye week, 2 solid weeks to prepare with a back up QB in A.J. Feeley and they flat out punched the bully in the mouth.



Feeley threw a pick six on the 3rd play of the game and everyone thought the route was on.



Not so fast. Eagles came right back on a 14 play drive covering 77 yards taking 7 minutes off the clock to tie it up at 7 and the game was on.



They attacked the Patriots on both sides of the ball, all night long and didn?t sit back like everyone else and put themselves in a position to win.



They got the ball on their own 8 yard line, just over 7 minutes to go down 31-28 and went right through New England like a knife through melted butter.



It took 7 plays to get to the Patriots 29 yard line and they faced a 2nd and 4 when Feely got impatient and showed why he is a backup.



He forced a throw into the end zone and the interception ended it.



What I took from that game is the Patriots were vulnerable to a team that wasn't afraid to come after them.



Seriously, A.J Feeley was 27 of 42 for 336 yards and even with the 3 interceptions they received the Patriots struggled to beat them at home.



I fully expect the Giants to again borrow from the Eagles gameplan and Ravens for that matter and come after the Patriots even harder than the first meeting.



Coughlin knows Belichick having coached with him at New York on Parcells staff and that knowledge is invaluable at this level.



Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo not only had 8 years under his belt with Jimmy Johnson of the Eagles but has 2 weeks to prepare for round 2.



People, I sat at home last week and watched the first meeting between these 2 over 6 times. Every play and I kept asking myself the same question over and over.



"Can New England blow this team out."



I just don't see it. The Giants came away from that first game with hope and confidence and in a game as big as this, not being afraid of the big bad wolf is a good thing.



New England is limping to the finish line. I mean limping and anybody out there who thinks they aren't is in denial.



They should have lost to the Eagles and the Ravens. No doubt about it. I know they didn't, but they are a blink of an eye from being 16-2.



Do we forget they struggled against the Jets 20-10 at home and the Dolphins went into Gillette and held them scoreless the last 35 minutes of the game?



Patriots had 2 weeks to prepare for the Jaguars and couldn't stop them. The Chargers, yes, the Chargers, with a one legged QB, a one footed all pro tight end and no LT had them on the ropes.



Eli Manning and offensive coordinator Kevin Gillbride are as in sync as any two guys I have seen. It was magic what they did in Green Bay.



Eli has finally got it and if you don't think he is like a kid in a candy store ready to attack this New England defense again, the one he threw 4 touchdowns against, you are crazy.



In my opinion, 3 things have to happen for the Giants to shock the world and win this game.



First, they must get to Brady with their front four. They have to win that battle. Secondly, they must win the turnover battle. Thirdly, they have to out rush New England.



I am as confident as I have ever been in handicapping this Super Bowl that if they accomplish those 3 things, they are your champions on Sunday.



However, those are 3 very tough things to do against an 18-0 New England team that has found ways to win every game this year.



Bottom line is this folks. I didn't get to 15-0-2 in this game by taking the easy way out and playing the favorite. Nope, my streak has been kept alive by finding the underdog.



The Giants, much like the Panthers and Eagles before them, is the play today.



I really believe the Giants will have a shot down the stretch to win this game outright. I really do. Whether they actually pull it off we will have to wait and see.



Their offense went up and down the field in the first meeting and scored more points on the Patriots than anybody this entire year.



I will gladly take the points and call for the Giants to at least get 27 points in the game and like I said, it wouldn't surprise me if they pulled off the miracle.



But at the end of the day, I look for the Patriots to do what they did in their two previous Super Bowls as the favorite, win but don't cover.



FINAL SCORE



Patriots 30-27
 

GIANTS007

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SPORTS NETWORK

Super Bowl XLII

N.Y. Giants (13-6) at New England (18-0)


(Sports Network) - The New England Patriots stand 60 minutes from the first 19-0 season in NFL history, with the New York Giants, their Super Bowl XLII counterpart, seeking to ruin that run at perfection with a monumental upset on Sunday.

University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ will be the site of the conflict, which takes place roughly five weeks after the Patriots and Giants engaged in a memorable affair at the Meadowlands in Week 17 of the regular season.

New York took New England to the wire in that contest, building a double-digit second-half lead before falling, 38-35. The result made the Patriots the first team to finish 16-0 since the NFL schedule was expanded in 1978, and Bill Belichick's squad also became the first to achieve perfection in a regular campaign since the 1972 Miami Dolphins went 14-0 en route to a Super Bowl title.

The '72 Dolphins remain the only team in league annals to finish unbeaten and untied through the postseason.

Sunday will mark the second time two teams that squared off in the last game of the regular season will engage in a Super Bowl rematch. The Cowboys' 27-10 win over the Broncos in Super Bowl XII came less than a month after Dallas had downed Denver, 14-6, on the final week of the 1977 regular season.

In addition to achieving perfection, the Patriots can also enhance one of the NFL's foremost dynasties with a victory.

After winning Super Bowls following the 2001, 2003, and 2004 season, the Pats can become just the second team in NFL history to win four titles in a seven- year span. The Pittsburgh Steelers (1974, 1975, 1978, 1979), who won four world championships in six years, are the only other club to pull off the feat.

The Steelers and 49ers (1981, 1984, 1988, 1989) are currently the only franchises to win four Super Bowl titles in a single decade, another exclusive club New England could join with a victory.

The Patriots (3-2 in Super Bowls) will make their sixth Super Sunday appearance, a mark that trails only that of Dallas (8), and is tied with Pittsburgh (6) and Denver (6) for the most all-time.

While the game is viewed by some as being the final and inevitable step toward New England's coronation, a red-hot Giants team figures to have a little something to say about that.

New York is in the Super Bowl for the first time in seven years thanks to consecutive playoff road wins over the Buccaneers (24-14), Cowboys (21-17), and Packers (23-20 in overtime), and the Giants' 10 wins away from home in 2007 are an NFL record.

Tom Coughlin's squad can become just the second team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy following four straight playoff wins away from their home facility, joining the 2005 Steelers.

At the same time, the Giants (10-6 in the regular season) are the first six- loss team to reach a Super Bowl since the 1988 San Francisco 49ers defeated the Cincinnati Bengals after finishing 10-6 that year.

New York, which went 3-5 at home this season, is the first of 84 Super Bowl participants to reach the game's ultimate stage after finishing with a losing mark on its home field.

The G-Men are 2-1 in Super Bowls, beating the Broncos (39-20) and Bills (20-19) following the 1986 and 1990 seasons, respectively, and falling to the Ravens (34-7) to close out the 2000 campaign.

SERIES HISTORY

The Patriots have a 5-3 edge in their all-time series with the Giants, and have won four straight since New York took down New England by a 13-10 count at Foxboro Stadium in 1990. As mentioned, New England was a 38-35 road winner when the teams last met, in Week 17.

The Patriots and Giants also met in the 2007 preseason, with New England taking a 27-20 decision at Gillette Stadium on Aug. 30.

Belichick, who served as an assistant coach with the Giants from 1979 through 1990, is 2-2 against his former employer, with both losses coming during his tenure in Cleveland (1991-1995).

The Giants' Coughlin is 1-4 all-time against the Patriots, with all but one of those games dating back to his tenure with the Jaguars (1995-2002). That record includes a 20-6 loss to New England in the 1996 AFC Championship, and a 25-10 win in a 1998 AFC First-Round Playoff. Coughlin is 2-1 head-to- head against Belichick, with both wins coming for his Jaguars against Belichick's Browns in 1995.

WHEN THE GIANTS HAVE THE BALL

After putting together a regular season compatible with his inconsistent four- year career, Eli Manning (3336 passing yards, 23 TD, 20 INT) has undergone a playoff revelation marked by sound decision-making and a minimizing of mistakes. The former No. 1 overall draft pick has completed 62 percent of his throws and not committed a turnover in New York's three postseason games. Manning's outstanding run actually began with a strong outing against New England in Week 17, when he went 22-of-32 for 251 yards and tossed four touchdown passes. Since an interception thrown by Manning late in that game, the Giants offense has gone 33 possessions and 194 plays without a turnover.

New York's receiving corps possesses a strong blend of size, experience and youth in the threesome of Plaxico Burress (70 receptions, 1025 yards, 12 TD), Amani Toomer (59 receptions, 3 TD) and Steve Smith. The 6-foot-5, 232-pound Burress can be a matchup nightmare for opposing defensive backs, as Green Bay's Al Harris recently found out first-hand. Burress manhandled the Pro Bowl corner with an 11-catch, 151-yard performance in the NFC Championship and also caught two scoring passes from Manning in the Giants' 38-35 loss to the Patriots in late December. Toomer, one of only two remaining members from New York's 2000 Super Bowl squad, has compiled 196 yards and three touchdowns in this postseason. The rookie Smith has made up for an unproductive and injury- plagued regular season with nine playoff catches, including several key grabs.

The Giants have had to get by without the services of four-time Pro Bowler Jeremy Shockey (57 receptions, 3 TD) since the animated tight end broke his fibula in a mid-December loss to Washington. However, rookie Kevin Boss (9 receptions, 2 TD) has proven to be a useful fill-in at the position, as evidenced by a four-catch, 50-yard effort with a touchdown in the first meeting with New England. Michael Matthews (6 receptions), who made the club out of training camp as an undrafted rookie free agent, is a quality blocker who is often used in short-yardage situations.

The Giants will send out their "thunder-and-lightning" tandem of Brandon Jacobs (1009 rushing yards, 23 receptions, 6 total TD) and Ahmad Bradshaw (190 rushing yards, 1 TD) in hopes of keeping the Patriots' record-setting offense off the field as much as possible on Super Bowl Sunday. The 21-year-old Bradshaw has been the more effective member of the duo during the playoffs, having totaled a team-best 163 rushing yards on 39 carries, but Jacobs did put up a respectable 67 yards on 15 attempts against New England in the regular- season finale. The pairing will be running behind another unsung hero in fullback Madison Hedgecock, an early-season waiver claim whose powerful blocking has been essential to the team's proficiency in the ground game.

An unheralded offensive line group has been the most reliable facet of New York's offense, partly because of its ability to remain intact. All five regulars started all 16 regular-season contests, although anchorman center Shaun O'Hara missed the Wild Card round victory over Tampa Bay after spraining his knee in the New England game. The standout of the unit is right guard Chris Snee, who also doubles as head coach Tom Coughlin's son-in-law.

New England primarily uses a three-man defensive front, with Pro Bowler Vince Wilfork (70 tackles, 2 sacks in the regular season) manning the middle and Richard Seymour (30 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Ty Warren (83 tackles, 4 sacks) occupying the ends. Seymour, who has two sacks and a fumble recovery during his Super Bowl career, is often replaced by Jarvis Green (39 tackles, 6.5 sacks) in passing situations. The Patriots ranked near the bottom of the league with 4.4 yards allowed per carry during the regular season.

The Patriots have a pair of highly-decorated linebackers in the middle of their four-man group, with former Pro Bowlers Tedy Bruschi (99 tackles, 2 sacks), and Junior Seau (76 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 INT) occupying those places. Seau (16 tackles, 1 sack) and Bruschi (15 tackles) are 1-2 on the team in stops during the postseason. Mike Vrabel (77 tackles, 12.5 sacks) and Adalius Thomas (82 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 1 INT) man the outside linebacker positions for New England, and are viewed by opponents as the team's most dangerous pass rushers. Vrabel will be making his fourth Super Bowl start as a Patriot, and will be looking for an encore of his XXXVIII performance against the Panthers, when he sacked Jake Delhomme twice. Thomas had New England's only sack of Manning in Week 17.

Once regarded as an area of weakness and inexperience for the Patriots, the cornerback position is now well-equipped to deal with any receiving corps in the league. Asante Samuel (44 tackles, 6 INT), Ellis Hobbs (63 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), and Randall Gay (33 tackles, 3 INT) have all had positive moments this season, and all will be on the field when the Giants use multi-receiver sets. Samuel and Hobbs both have picks during the 2007 postseason, and Hobbs had the team's only INT of Manning in Week 17. The safety position is also an area of strength for New England, as starters Rodney Harrison (67 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack), James Sanders (73 tackles, 2 INT), and top backup Eugene Wilson (32 tackles, 1 INT) all bring a great deal of experience to the table. Harrison and Wilson were the Pats' starters in their Super Bowl wins over the Panthers and Eagles, and Harrison has two picks and two sacks in those games.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

National Football League MVP Tom Brady (4806 passing yards, 50 TD, 8 INT) comes off one of the great statistical seasons in NFL history, though less focus will be on that fact than on Brady's gimpy right ankle. Brady was hurt in the third quarter of the Pats' AFC Championship win over the Chargers, and struggled during much of a performance in which he threw a season-worst three interceptions. Even with that showing, Brady (471 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT in the postseason) has a 105.7 rating in these playoffs. He's also 3-0 with six touchdowns, one pick, and 735 yards in three career Super Bowl appearances. Brady was 32-of-42 for 356 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants in Week 17.

One of the major storylines on Super Sunday will involve wideout Randy Moss (98 receptions, 23 TD), who will be appearing in his first career Super Bowl and trying to shake off a conspicuously quiet 2007 postseason to date. Moss has touched the football just three times in the playoffs, catching two ***** for 32 yards and carrying once for 14 yards. Moss had six catches for 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Giants in the regular season finale. Slot receiver Wes Welker (112 receptions, 8 TD) has 16 catches for 110 yards and two touchdowns in the playoffs thus far, and logged 11 grabs for 122 yards versus the G-Men last time out. Donte' Stallworth (46 receptions, 3 TD) and Jabar Gaffney (36 receptions, 5 TD) both had their moments during the regular season, and have combined for nine catches totaling 117 yards in these playoffs.

Tight end Benjamin Watson (36 receptions, 6 TD), who has made two of his three catches in the playoffs to date count for touchdowns, remains a trusted red- zone target for Brady. Watson, who will be making his first career Super Bowl appearance, caught four ***** for 38 yards against New York in Week 17. No. 2 tight end Kyle Brady will be appearing in his first career Super Bowl at the age of 36. Brady had nine catches (two for touchdowns) during the regular season, and has one grab in the 2007 postseason. Vrabel, who caught a touchdown pass against the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX, occasionally appears as a tight end in goal-line sets.

Running back Laurence Maroney (835 rushing yards, 6 TD) has generated a major impact for the Patriots during the playoffs, carrying 47 times for 244 yards and two touchdowns (5.2 yards per rush) in wins over the Jaguars and Chargers. In his last five games overall, Maroney has averaged 110 rushing yards and scored seven touchdowns. The second-year pro was held to 46 yards on 19 carries against the Giants in Week 17, but scored twice. Kevin Faulk (265 rushing yards, 47 receptions, 1 TD in the regular season), who led New England with eight catches for 72 yards in the AFC Championship win over San Diego, has 16 rushes for 95 yards (5.9 yards per attempt) and seven receptions for 45 yards during his Super Bowl career. Fullback Heath Evans (121 rushing yards, 3 TD), who comes in during short-yardage situations, has just three touches in the '07 playoffs to date.

The underrated New England offensive line is led by a pair of Pro Bowlers, left tackle Matt Light and center Dan Koppen, both of whom have a great deal of Super Bowl experience. Light will be making his fourth Super Bowl start as a member of the Patriots, Koppen his third. The third member of the starting group with a Super Sunday resume' is right guard Stephen Neal, who was a starter against the Eagles three years ago. Left guard Logan Mankins and right tackle Nick Kaczur, who complete a group that allowed just 21 sacks all year, will be playing in their first career Super Bowls. The Patriots rushed for 4.4 yards per carry during the regular season, but New England running backs amassed just 48 yards on 22 combined totes against the Giants. New York recorded only one sack in that game, that by linebacker Reggie Torbor.

Giants ends Osi Umenyiora (52 tackles, 13 sacks), Michael Strahan (57 tackles, 9 sacks) and Justin Tuck (58 tackles, 10 sacks) have been wreaking havoc all year long, and the trio will be counted on to make Brady uncomfortable in the pocket for the Giants to have a chance to pull off the upset. The 36-year-old Strahan, one of only two players left from the Giants' 2000 NFC champion squad, has been the most productive of the group in the postseason. The seven- time Pro Bowler has compiled 18 tackles, one sack and a forced fumble in the three playoff games.

While the pass rushers get most of the defensive attention for New York, the Giants did finish eighth in the NFL against the run (97.7 ypg). The solid play of interior linemen Fred Robbins (42 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and Barry Cofield (34 tackles, 1 sack) had much to do with that lofty ranking, but perhaps no player is more valuable to the Giants on defense than middle linebacker Antonio Pierce (103 tackles, 1 INT, 1 sack), the team's top tackler and a vocal presence in the huddle. The linebacking corps did suffer a potentially- damaging blow when strongside starter Mathias Kiwanuka went down to a season- ending broken leg in mid-November, but Torbor (39 tackles, 1 sack) has filled in capably for the converted defensive end. Offseason acquisition Kawika Mitchell (76 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT) has proven to be a nice addition on the weakside.

No position on the Giants' defense has experienced as much flux as that of cornerback, as recent injuries to Sam Madison (67 tackles, 4 INT, 14 PD), Aaron Ross (42 tackles, 3 INT, 1.5 sacks), and Kevin Dockery (46 tackles) have really tested the team's depth. New York has been able to survive, however, because reserves Corey Webster (18 tackles, 1 INT) and R.W. McQuarters (15 tackles) have stepped up their play at a most crucial time. The pair have accounted for all five of the team's interceptions during the postseason, with Webster setting up Lawrence Tynes' game-winning field goal in the NFC Championship by picking off Brett Favre in overtime. Both Madison and Ross returned to action in the conference title game, while Dockery has a good chance of playing in the Super Bowl as well. Similar to Pierce's role within the linebacking corps, the glue of New York's secondary has been free safety Gibril Wilson (92 tackles, 4 INT), a mainstay in the team's starting lineup since the Giants wisely grabbed him in the fifth round of the 2004 draft. Strong safety James Butler (61 tackles, 1 INT) has been inconsistent in his first season as a starter and often shares time with rookie Michael Johnson (25 tackles), who has flashed potential but also lacks experience.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker Lawrence Tynes earned himself a notable place in Giants lore, not to mention an appearance on the Late Show with David Letterman, with his 47-yard overtime field goal that propelled New York to victory over Green Bay in the NFC Championship. However, the Scottish-born kicker also misfired on a pair of three-point tries in the game and had a spotty first year with the Giants. Tynes was 23-of-27 on field goals during the regular season, but all four of those misses were from inside 40 yards.

Punter Jeff Feagles no longer boasts a powerful leg -- his 40.4 yard average was the second-lowest in the league -- but he's still quite adept at pinning in the opposition with his kicks. The ironman punter had 25 boots land inside the 20-yard line this season.

Veteran R.W. McQuarters averaged a mediocre 7.6 yards per punt return during the regular season, but did come up with a key 25-yard runback in New York's upset victory at Dallas in the Divisional round. He also had a near-costly fumble in the Green Bay game. McQuarters has returned three punts for touchdowns during his 10-year career, but none since 2004. The Patriots are fully aware of the capabilities of New York kickoff returner Domenik Hixon, as the young backup wideout had a 74-yard kick return touchdown when the two teams met in the regular-season finale. Hixon, claimed off waivers from Denver in October, has also performed well on returns this postseason, averaging 25.1 yards on 10 attempts.

New York has been very strong on punt coverage this year, having limited the opposition to just 6.2 yards per return prior to the playoffs (5th best in the NFL). The stars of the unit are linebacker Chase Blackburn, who led the team with 17 special teams tackles, and wide receiver David Tyree, a Pro Bowl honoree as a special-teamer in 2005. The Giants haven't been as good defending kicks, and Tynes has struggled at times on kickoffs.

The Pats' Stephen Gostkowski has attempted just two field goals in the 2007 postseason to date, missing on a 35-yarder and making one from the same distance in the Divisional Playoff win over Jacksonville. The second-year pro was 21-of-24 during the regular season, including 3-of-5 from 40 yards-plus, and hit a season-high-tying 45-yarder during a 3-for-3 night against the Giants in Week 17. He is 9-of-10 on field goals during his playoff career, including a 50-yarder against the Chargers in a 2006 Divisional Playoff. Gostkowski ranked among NFL leaders with 15 touchbacks during the regular season, but has just two in his last nine games.

Punter Chris Hanson (41.4 punting avg.) was the least-used regular punter in the NFL with just 44 kicks, and has booted the ball only five times in the playoffs (38.0 avg.). Hanson, who made his only Pro Bowl while playing for the Coughlin-coached Jaguars in 2002, had a punt blocked and recovered for a touchdown against the Jets in December.

New England is likely to use either Welker or Faulk on punt returns, as both have appeared at the spot during the 2007 postseason. Welker was the Pats' primary return man during the regular season, averaging 10 yards per attempt with his high a 35-yarder against Indianapolis in November. The Patriots have used both Maroney and Hobbs on kickoff returns during the postseason, and former second-round draft pick Chad Jackson was also utilized in that capacity against the Jaguars un the Divisional round. Hobbs was the club's usual return choice during the regular season, averaging more than 26 yards per return and scoring on a 108-yard play against the Jets back in Week 1.

Due to the proficiency of their offense, the Patriots have a great deal of experience covering kickoffs, and not as much on punts. New England allowed a modest 22.1 yards per kickoff return during the regular season, and the only touchdown surrendered by that coverage group was Hixon's aforementioned return in Week 17. New England's opponents were able to return only 14 of the team's 44 punts, with a 33-yard return by Yamon Figurs of the Ravens ranking as the only one to go for more than 20 yards all year. Special teams stars for New England this year have included Pierre Woods (22 special teams tackles), Brandon Meriweather (18 tackles), Kelley Washington (18 tackles), Larry Izzo (14 tackles), and Eric Alexander (14 tackles).

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Though the Patriots have the edge in a majority of the above personnel categories, it's not a decisive edge on many counts. The Giants proved on Dec. 29 that they have the ability to make this a game, and it is difficult to envision a team that is playing with as much confidence and purpose as is New York to get run off the field in this one. Still, it's even more difficult to visualize the Patriots dejectedly walking off the pitch at University of Phoenix stadium as Coughlin and Manning share smiles and hugs on the awards stage. New England has found a way on 18 consecutive occasions, and will find a way yet again.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Patriots 27, Giants 24
 

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THE SUNSHINE FORECAST

Sunday, February 3, 2008

New York Giants (+13) vs. New England Patriots [Super Bowl XLII]

Power Rating Projection:

New England Patriots 30 New York Giants 18
Statistical Projections

New York Giants 16

Rushing Yards: 144
Passing Yards: 148
Turnovers: 2 New England Patriots 35

Rushing Yards: 108
Passing Yards: 330
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to New England Patriots
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New England Patriots 33 New York Giants 28
New York Giants (1 star)
 

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Cash Pomers Superbowl Winner

Cash Pomers Superbowl Winner

NY Giants
no need to buy any points
 

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Vegas Hot Sheet correction

Vegas Hot Sheet correction

Sorry about that Vegas Hot Sheet has New England -12
 

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teddy covers

NE over 54
NE -12

Props
brady over 35.5 attempts
welker over 7 receptions
k faulk over 32.5 receiving yards
over 6.5 different patriots to catch balls
jacobs +23.5 vs. maroney rushing yards
maroney under 20.5 carries
Giants +12.5 rushing yards vs. patriots
Giants more penalty yards
Giants longer kickoff return
Pats longer punt return

confirmed
 

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Docs NFL

4 Unit Play. #101 Take New York +12 over New England (Sunday 6:20 pm Fox) It is the Super Bowl and not much information is keep from the public and one could write two pages of analysis about why each team could win. But like everything in sports gambling it comes down to the execution of the players and we feel these teams are much closer in talent then what a double digit spread would indicate. The talk all week has been about the foot injury of Tom Brady. I don?t put too much stock into that but do feel he will not be 100%. One thing that I do put a lot of stock into is that these teams have already met once this season and the Giants gave them all they could handle despite it not meaning a thing for them with regards to playoff seeding. This scenario happened to the Patriots in 2001 when the Rams beat them in Foxboro and New England entered the Super Bowl as a double-digit underdog. Very few gave them a chance and they heard about that for two straight weeks. Does this sound familiar?





Now Bill Belichick is not Mike Martz and will not let his team become complacent like the Rams did, but that being said, New England has everything to lose and the Giants have everything to gain. QB Manning has been playing the best football of his career and the Giants have a better defense then New England. They will not be able to shutdown Brady and company but they will not let them too far out in front either. New York comes ready to play and this one will go down to the wire giving us the cash with whomever comes out on top. The Giants are a public play, but one must remember the public is usually on the right side when it comes to Super Bowl betting. East Rutherford Giants 31, Boston Patriots 27.



1 Unit Play. #132 First Score of the game will be FG/Safety +180 (Sunday 6:20 pm Fox) We all remember that Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes missed two field goals in the NFC Championship Game against Green Bay and nearly kicked himself out of the league. That was in terrible conditions, something that will be nowhere to be found in the desert on Sunday. Both teams have solid defenses and I truly believe the Patriots will not be able to score at will, something they have failed to due recently. This prop presents great value and expect the first score of the game to be a field goal.



1 Unit Play. #175 Take Over 4 ? in Total Receptions by Plaxico Burress (Sunday 6:20 pm Fox) We all saw how dominating Burress was in the NFC Championship Game against Green Bay, who had a Pro Bowl CB in Al Harris. Without Shockey the Giants don?t have much at the receiver position and expect Burress to come up big again propelling his team to a victory.



1 Unit Play. #212 Take Brandon Jacobs +1000 to score the first touchdown in the game. He is a big hoarse and if we can get first and goal deep in Patriot territory expect to see a healthy does of Jacobs. Hopefully he can break through one early and give the Giants a 10-0 lead.



The majority of these props favor the Giants and if the Patriots blow them out, we could very easily lose all three of them. We like the Giants plus the points the best and do not go overboard betting props, as they are sucker bets that greatly favor the house.
 

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THE SPORTS MEMO


Sportsmemo?s Super Bowl Picks

Handicapper Side Total

Tim Trushel Giants +12 Under 53.5
Teddy Cover Giants +12 Over 53.5
Fairway Jay Patriots -12 Under 53.5
Erin Rynning Giants +12 Under 53.5
Brent Crow Giants +12 Over 53.5
Rob Veno Giants +12 Over 53.5
Ed Cash Giants +12 Over 53.5
Sonny Palermo Patriots -12 Over 53.5
David Jones Giants +12 Over 53.5
Marty Otto Giants +12 Under 53.5
Jared Klein Giants +12 Over 53.5
Donnie Black Giants +12 Under 53.5


PROP BETS:


Brent Crow L. Maroney total rush attempts (CRIS)
Over 18.5 -150

The Patriots have been working Maroney into the game plan more
and more lately, as he had 104 yards or more in four of their last
five games. The only time he failed to have 100 yards, was in week
17 at the Giants, but he did carry 19 times for 46 yards in that game.
I expect Maroney to be a big part of the plan this week, as Belichick
always seems to come up with exotic plans. A big Patriot lead
would also add to Maroney?s attempts as they run out the clock.



Ed Cash Giants longest touchdown (CRIS)

Under 42.5 -115
Without a long fluke score, this means the Giants? offense will have to
come up with a big play for me to lose this prop. The Giants don?t really
have a speed receiver to get behind the New England secondary,
and the running game hasn?t broken many big plays this season either.
The biggest threat would be a jump ball type of pass play to Plaxico
Burress, but I am counting on Bill Belichick to have a plan in place to stop
that. I just don?t see New York being able to spring for such a big play.




Fairway Jay R. Moss catches/T. Wood final round birdies (LV Hilton)
Moss catches -110

Woods won the 2006 Dubai Desert Classic with a final round 69 (3-under
par), and has averaged 4.3 birdies per round the past six years. Randy
Moss averaged over six catches per game this season. While the better
defenses of Jacksonville and San Diego both denied him the ball with
double and triple teams, the Giants? secondary is more vulnerable. Moss
had six catches for 100 yards against the Giants in the season finale
in tougher weather conditions. Expect at least that in the Super Bowl.




Tim Trushel P. Burress first catch yardage (LV Hilton)
Over 9.5 -110

In his last four games Plaxico Burress has caught 20 passes and
racked up 278 yards. Of his catches in that time frame, only five
have gone for less than 10 yards. The other 15 show yardage between
the shortest (10) and longest (52) and reflect his seasonal average
of nearly 15 ypc. Now yards after catch is also figured into
those numbers. But if you take those yards you see Plax with an average
catch of 10.3, still higher than the number we?ll play against.



Rob Veno B. Watson receiving yards (BoDog)
Over 22.5 -120

The yardage price tag on this proposition is set in a spot that neither
reflects Ben Watson?s 32.4 receiving yards per game average
or the New York Giants propensity to allow tight ends plenty of open
space in the seams of their defense. Tight ends have gone over this
number in seven of the last eight games against the Giants. In the
earlier meeting between these teams, Watson caught four passes for
35 yards and figure him to get at least that on Super Bowl Sunday.



Jared Klein Total game sacks/Jaromir Jagr shots on goal (LV Hilton)

Jagr shots +110
The Giants and the Patriots? offensive lines have been very good this
season. Tom Brady?s average sacks per game breaks down to 1.26,
while Eli Manning?s is 1.65. In their recent matchup, both the Giants
and the Patriots gave up one sack for a total of two over the course of
the entire game. Jaromir Jagr has averaged 3.6 shots per game over
the month of January and the last time he faced the Canadiens he
fired seven shots on net. The Jagr side of this prop has value at +110.



Sonny Palermo E. Manning passing yards (Olympic)
Over 232.5 +115

Start with the premise that NY is gonna lose. In six losses in ?07
Manning threw 312, 211, 236, 273, 184 and 251. The two losses he
didn?t get 232?? One he had a shoulder injury, one he was victimized
by eight drops. Week 17 against NE, Manning had 251 yards and
that was when NY was ahead for much of the game! With the championship/
undefeated season theirs for the taking, Beli will go for the
kill. NY will be behind this time and Eli will be passing. Take the Over.



Donnie Black Will there be a scoreless quarter (LV Hilton)
No -350

These two teams met in late December and played a wildly exciting
game that featured 73 total points, including at least 10 in each quarter.
Including the playoffs the Giants have played 19 games, the Patriots
have played 18. That means the two have played a combined 148 quarters
along the way. Of those 148 quarters of play only seven (four from
New York and three from New England) have gone scoreless. That is less
than five percent! Lay the chalk and play the ?No? on scoreless quarters.



Teddy Covers A. Bradshaw longest rush (LV Hilton)

Under 11.5 -110
At first glance, this number looks rather short. Bradshaw, after all, is
the ?lightning? to Brandon Jacobs ?thunder? in the Giants backfield. And
we all remember the big plays that Bradshaw has made for the Giants
during their impressive late season run, including his highlight reel 88
yard touchdown run at Buffalo in Week 16. But Bradshaw?s emerging
reputation has exceeded his actual production levels. His 88-yarder
against the Bills was his only run longer than eleven yards all season!




Erin Rynning E. Manning pass attempts (Greek)
Over 34.5 -130

In my opinion and in the market?s the New York Giants are obviously
the heavy underdogs. With this thinking, that means it?s important to
look at games in which they were down and forced to try and make
up ground quick. In these games, Manning averaged over 40 pass attempts
dating back the last couple of years. In this contest, the Giant?s
most likely will have no choice other than to throw the football
if they want to win this game, leaving us with good value on the over.


Marty Otto Most penalty yards (LV Hilton)
Giants -110

The Patriots finished the regular season with 78 infractions and were penalized
690 yards. The Giants were penalized 77 times for 652 yards. But in the
playoffs no team has had more accepted penalties than the Giants (14 for 116
yards). The Pats, although they played one less game, were flagged just eight
times for 93 yards. Poise certainly weighs into this discussion and with New
England having played in three Super Bowls, they will be the team that responds
well to the pressure and keeps their poise while avoiding penalties.


David Jones Total Team Rushing Yards (Carib Sports)
Giants +10.5 -115

New York ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing offense during the regular
season with an average of 134 ypg. In contrast, the Pats offense relies
more on its air game to attack opposing defenses. New England ran for an
average of 114 ypg to rank 13th in the league. These stat rankings played
out in the week 17 matchup between the two clubs as the Giants outgained
the Pats by 35 yards on the ground despite having seven fewer rushing
attempts. Look for NY to be more aggressive and try to establish the run.
 

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NORTHCOAST'S POWERSWEEP


GAME OVERVIEW - Bill Belichick's Patriots were written in as the AFC's Super Bowl team on draft
day & are the only 18-0 team in NFL history. Already loaded with talent the Patriots used the Spygate
scandal to deliver a scorched earth campaign vs the NFL & a win here labels them as the best team
in NFL history. They are now tied with the 1984 49ers & 1985 Bears for most victories in a season
as both finished with 18-1 records. The Giants are 2007's Cinderella team being the 1st ever to win
10 straight road games. The only thing that has slowed NE has been poor weather. In the 10 games
before Thanksgiving avg'd 41.1 ppg with an avg margin of victory of 25 ppg & over the L8 the margin
dropped to 10. NE could to lose several key players in the offseason including Moss, Stallworth, Seau,
Bruschi & Asante Samuel. NYG Coughlin began the season on the hot seat & needed a playoff victory
to return in 2008. Things started poorly as the defense gave up 80 pts in the 1st 2 games but since then
the Giants are 13-4 SU & ATS & the 4th team ever to start 0-2 & make the Super Bowl. For the 2nd
year in a row the Super Bowl will feature a Manning at QB as Eli appears to have turned the corner in
the post season & made this his team. By doing so he & Coughlin have taken big steps to quiet the
critics including former Giant RB Tiki Barber. The Giants success hasn't gone unnoticed in NFL front
offices as 1st year DC Steve Spagnuolo is a strong candidate for the Falcons head coaching job. The
AFC is now 6-1 SU & 4-3 ATS in the Super Bowl & in a touch of irony this is the biggest SB line since
Super Bowl XXXVI when the Rams were -14 vs the Patriots.

PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE - Super Bowl XLII will be the 1st SB for the Giants since they were blasted
by the Ravens 34-7 as a 3 pt dog to end the 2000 season. The only remaining players from that team
are Michael Strahan & Amani Toomer. NE brings in 15 players from the AFC Championship game
who were with the team for the 2003 & 2004 SB's. Tedy Bruschi & Troy Brown have been to 4 Super
Bowls with the Patriots including the 1996 loss to Green Bay. Brady is now 14-2 SU & 8-7-1 ATS in
the playoffs with a 100-26 SU record as a starter. Manning is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in the playoffs. Both
teams are stocked with playoff veterans but NE has the most SB & media experience in the NFL &
that gets them the edge here. LARGE EDGE: PATRIOTS


RECORD VS THE SPREAD - The Patriots historic run started off with an 8 game ATS winning streak
as they dominated opponents winning by an average of 26 ppg. Vegas continued to overcompensate &
lines became extremely inflated. They finished the regular season covering just 1 of 6 & then went 0-2
ATS in the Playoffs. The Giants are currently on an 11-4 ATS run & are the first playoff team to win 3
straight road games as an underdog adding to their NFL record 10 game road win streak. The Giants
did drop their last 4 home games & were the only playoff team to lose 2 games by 20+ points as well
as being outgained in 9 games TY. NE has won 13 games this year by DD with 11 games won by 12+
points. The Giants meanwhile have dropped 5 of their 6 losses by DD with 3 of those being by 12+
points. When comparing performances against winning teams NE has a large edge as they finished the
regular season 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS while NY was just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS. Since 1995 there have been 4
DD favorites in the SB with the dog going 3-0-1 ATS & winning outright twice (NE '01 & Den '97) but it
hasn't occurred since the NE upset. The Patriots have played the tougher "marquee" schedule & have
been under the spotlight all season giving them the edge here. SLIGHT EDGE: PATRIOTS


TURF/SITE - This will be the 2nd ever Super Bowl in Arizona with the 1st being SB XXX. University of
Phoenix Stadium opened in August of 2006 & has been named the top NFL venue the L2Y beating
out Lambeau Field. It will be expanded to 73,000 seats for this event & has a retractable roof with a
234 x 430 foot grass field that is rolled outdoors for 350 days a year & indoors for NFL events. The
NFL installs its own grass field called Princess 77 for the SB costing $500,000. Both teams are allotted
12,250 tickets (16.3%) to their fans (season ticket holders) with 5% of the tickets going to the team
hosting the event, 30% shared by the other 30 NFL teams, & 30% is retained by the NFL for sponsors
& special promotions. Neither team has played here & both are FieldTurf teams. Both have fans that
travel well & distance is equal for both teams so this is a true neutral site. EDGE: NONE


GIANTS #16 OFFENSE VS PATRIOTS #4 DEFENSE - It's addition by subtraction for the Giants offense
in 2007. Tiki Barber's retirement was supposed to be a big blow to the run game but the Giants
avg'd 130 ypg (4.4) with 19 rush TD's vs 135 ypg (4.7) & 14 rush TD's LY. The Giants went with a RB
by committee approach for 2007 with Brandon Jacobs being the primary back & while he earned 1164
yds rushing (4.7) he missed 5 games with right knee & hamstring injuries. Derrick Ward did a solid job
in relief with 602 yds (4.8) but an ankle injury saw him land on IR. Reuben Droughns (275 yds. 3.2) is
similar in style to Jacobs but he's now a special teams player with the rise of Ahmad Bradshaw who's
success on special teams (23.9 KR avg) got him more time as the 3rd Dn RB. Jacobs & Bradshaw
combined to avg 106 ypg (3.7) in the 3 playoff games. Eli Manning is still a developing QB & his
leadership style & supporting cast is very different from his brother's which because of the NY market
draws a lot of criticism. Prior to the MIN game he only had 2 games with a 100+ QBR & he had 4 int
vs the Vikings with 3 returned for TD's in the loss. He gained a reputation for struggling in cold weather
highlighted by a 32.2 QBR at BUF which was his 1st game without Shockey who landed on IR with
a broken leg vs WAS. The loss of Shockey actually has freed up Manning from forcing the ball to him
& over his L4 games he has avg'd 213 ypg (64%) with an 8-1 ratio (105.1 QBR) with 3 straight 100+
QBR games (prior to GB) for the 1st time in his career. Plaxico Burress comes into this one with 86
rec (14.2) despite playing with torn ankle ligaments & had an outstanding game vs GB with 154 yds
(14.0). Amani Toomer (74, 12.9) rebounded from a torn Achilles & is Manning's prime target on 3rd
Dn. Rookie TE Kevin Boss (13, 12.5) has done a solid job stepping in for Shockey & while WR Steve
Smith has stepped up in the playoffs with 9 rec (11.3) he's still inconsistent. The OL started all 80
together TY but is dinged up a bit as Ctr O'Hara is playing with a knee sprain. They allowed 28 sacks
in the regular season & 6 in the playoffs & have stood up well vs some of the top DE/OLB tandems
over the L3W. They will be key in getting the #4 rush offense going vs NE's #9 rush defense. NE has
allowed 7 games of 100+ yds rushing TY (98 ypg 4.3 on yr) & while they do struggle vs North/South
RB's like Jacobs they held him to 67 yds (4.5) in the 1st meeting & held the Jags to 80 yds (3.6). DE
Richard Seymour (1.5 sacks) had a down year starting out on the PUP but he is still one of the premier
DE's in the NFL & Ty Warren (5 sacks) is opposite him. NT Vince Wilfork (2 sacks) made his 1st Pro
Bowl & is one of the top three 3-4 NT's in the NFL now. While NE has some of the slowest LB's in the
NFL their experience & knowledge of the scheme has them at the right place at the right time & they
remain very effective in sealing the perimeter. Mike Vrabel had a career year (12.5 sacks) & the addition
of Adalius Thomas (6.5 sacks) allowed him to bump to OLB where he is at his best. Tedy Bruschi
(2 sacks) & Junior Seau (4.5 sacks) are the ILB's & both may retire after this game. Asante Samuel (7
int) has established himself as the NFL's best cover CB behind Champ Bailey & will be charged with
covering Burress. Ellis Hobbs (2 int) is the other starting CB & with Samuel playing at a high level he's
been thrown at more TY. SS Rodney Harrison (2 int) is the heart & soul of the secondary & the FS spot
has been split between James Sanders (2 int) & Eugene Wilson (1 int) who has been slowed by an
ankle injury. NE is at a bit of a disadvantage as their top 3 CB's are all 5-11 or smaller while Burress
& Toomer are 6-5 & 6-3 respectively. While Manning will no doubt get advice from his brother & there
some familiarity here the ability of the defense to confuse opposing QB's & experience gets the nod
here especially with an extra week of game planning. SLIGHT EDGE: PATRIOTS



PATRIOTS #1 OFFENSE VS GIANTS #8 DEFENSE - This is potentially where the best matchup &
possibly biggest mismatch of the game will be. The best matchup will be the Patriots OL which allowed
21 sacks (5th) or one every 27.6 pass attempts in the regular season (3 in the playoffs) vs the
Giants DL which tallied an NFL best 53 sacks (1 every 9.9 pass att's) in the regular season but only
3 in the playoffs. The Giants use a 3 DE rotation of Strahan (10 sacks), Umenyiora (13 sacks) & Tuck
(10 sacks) to get to the QB & the 3 have more sacks than 14 NFL teams. The DT's are Fred Robbins
(5.5 sacks) & Barry Cofield (1 sack) who comes out when Tuck is shifted inside. The Giants pass
rush is better than their ranking as the pressure they bring masks a very beaten up DB unit. If they
fail to get to Brady than the biggest mismatch will be the NFL's best QB in 2007 vs the NY secondary.
Brady finished 3rd or better in 10 of the 11 major categories for a QB (tied 7th in int) including TD's
(55), ypa (8.31) & QBR (117.2). Only 4 WR's have caught a pass from Brady TY with Wes Welker
finishing tied for the NFL lead in rec's with 112 in the reg season. Donte' Stallworth started strong but
only had 20 rec & 0 TD in the 2H of the year while Jabar Gaffney had 24 of his 36 rec in the 2H of the
season. Moss lead the NFL with 23 rec TD's & finished 2nd with 1493 yds but has been shutdown
in the playoffs with only 2 rec (16.0). Welker, Stallworth & Gaffney have combined for 25 rec (9.1) in
the playoffs & Kevin Faulk (13 rec, 9.1) has shined as a 3rd Dn RB in the playoffs. TE Ben Watson
has been hurt much of the season but Kyle Brady has made up for it as an outstanding blocking TE.
The success of the passing attack has left Laurence Maroney as an afterthought for most of the year
(reg ssn 835 yds, 4.5) but he has four of his five 100 yd rushing games in his L5 & has avg'd 110 ypg
(5.2) in that span. The Giants #8 rush defense has allowed ten 100 yd rush games (98 ypg 4.3) TY &
Maroney's fresh legs (26th in rush att's) could be a factor. The Giants LB's are very underrated being
balanced vs run & in pass coverage with MLB Antonio Pierce (1 sack) & WLB Kawika Mitchell (3.5
sk) starting all 16 games. SLB Reggie Torbor was promoted after Kiwanuka broke his leg & the DL
pressure allows them to focus on protecting the 2nd level. The secondary is a concern as CB's Aaron
Ross (dislocated shoulder) & Sam Madison (abdomen) are playing hurt & none of the Giants DB's
have started all 16 games TY. RW McQuarters (3 int) is a good #3 CB but the Giants have struggled
with Corey Webster (3 int) & Kevin Dockery (0 int) providing depth. SS Gibril Wilson (4 int) has done
a good job while FS James Butler (1 int) has been serviceable. The key to the game will be in how
NE stands up to the Giants formidable pass rush. Brady was photographed walking in an air cast
after the SD game but will have 2 weeks to heal here. He is very adept at reading defenses & making
the quick pass to defuse the pass rush. Playing in a controlled environment gives NE the edge in the
pass attack but the Giants pass rush shouldn't be underestimated here. EDGE: PATRIOTS



SPECIAL TEAMS - This is a fairly even matchup as the Giants have our #22 special teams unit while the
Patriots have our #19 unit. In terms of hidden yards NE has the edge as they avg'd 9.6 (11th) & 24.1 (4th)
on PR's & KR's vs 7.7 (27th) & 23.8 (7th) for the Giants. NE also has slightly better coverage units allowing
5.4 (2nd) on PR's & 21.6 (11th) on KR's (22nd) vs 5.5 (5th) & 22.8 (22nd) by the Giants. Much of this is
due to NE having a core group of special teamers like LB Izzo supplemented by a roster with players who
could start elsewhere. Neither has a standout Punter as Jeff Feagles 36.0 net avg is tied for 30th & Chris
Hanson's 36.1 net avg is tied for 28th as Brady has more TD passes (55) than Hanson has punts (49).
NE K Gostkowski finished as our #29 rated K TY hitting 84.6% of FG's & wasn't needed much due to the
offensive success. NYG K Tynes overcame 2 bad misses vs GB with the longest FG in Lambeau in the
playoffs for the win LW. He is our #25 rated K for 2007 hitting 84% of FG's. SLIGHT EDGE: PATRIOTS


COACHING - Both coaches are members of the Bill Parcells coaching tree and spent the 1988-1990
seasons together. Coughlin was the WR's coach & Belichick was the DC on the staff of the 1990
Giants team that won SB XXV. Belichick was also the DC of the 1986 Giants team that won SB XXI
vs DEN & has his own lineage of assistants who have gone off to other HC jobs. Josh McDaniels is
in his 7th season with NE & his 2nd as the OC & turned down 2 offers to interview for HC jobs. DC
Dean Pees has been with NE since 2004 & is also in his 2nd year as a coordinator. Giants' OC Kevin
Gilbride is a long time OC in the NFL & the only NFL QB coach Manning has had. DC Spagnuolo was
the Eagles LB coach for 3 years before coming to the Giants & his version of the Eagles scheme is
more protective of his depleted DB corps. NE has more familiarity on the staff & in marquee games
& get the nod here & it remains to be seen if Spagnuolo isn't a 1 year wonder. EDGE: PATRIOTS


PAST HISTORY MATCHUP & INTANGIBLES - This will actually be the 3rd meeting between these
teams as NE beat the Giants 27-20 as a 3.5 pt HF in the last preseason game & 38-35 in the reg season
finale as a 13 pt AF. The Giants had nothing to play for in the season finale but decided to go all in vs
a NE team under pressure for a perfect season. NE scored 22 straight points after being down by 12
in the middle of the 3Q & scored on 7 of 9 drives discounting kneel downs. The Giants pulled to within
3 with 1:04 left but NE recovered the onside kick & ran out the clock. NE had 27-19 FD, 390-316 yd &
36:18-23:42 TOP edges in the game. Manning was very crisp with 251 yds passing (69%) with a 4-1
ratio (118.6 QBR). Brady had 356 yds passing (76%) with a 2-0 ratio. The tandem of Moss & Welker
combined for 17 rec (13.1) & Moss broke Rice's record for TD rec's in a season. The Giants used the
momentum of playing NE tough to push past TB, DAL & GB on the road during their playoff run despite
injuries to Ctr O'Hara & CB Madison. NE is under much more pressure here as they go for their place
in the history books. The Giants will be playing the disrespect card as much of the media will be talking
about NE's dominant season. Their previous performance vs NE gives them a confidence boost that
they can do so again but it is mitigated by Belichick's coaching prowess as he's 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS & 3-6
O/U in the playoffs vs a team he's faced in the regular season. SLIGHT EDGE: GIANTS


CONCLUSION - Let us begin with a handicapping lesson. The Super Bowl is an ISOLATED GAME &
THERE IS LITTLE LINE VALUE!! Many amateurs put their biggest play of the year on the Super Bowl
hence the reason they are amateurs. The best plays you can find are during the regular season when
Vegas posts numbers on 35-40 college games, NFL sides & NFL totals each week. With roughly 70
games to choose from, you can find plenty of solid line value. This week, everyone in the country will
know EVERYTHING about this game & the line will be very sharp. Do not fall into the trap of putting your
biggest play of the year (or even close to it) on the most isolated game of all. Bill Belichick is a history buff & the Patriots are well aware of what this game means in terms of their place in the NFL record books & how a win will essentially make Spygate meaningless. Brady has a chance to join the likes of Bradshaw & Montana as the only QB's to win 4 Super Bowls in their careers & is just entering his prime. NE is 13-5 O/U, 7-2 O/U vs teams with a winning record, 4-0 O/U vs the NFC East & 6-2 O/U on the road TY. The Giants are only 9-9-1 O/U TY, 5-3 O/U vs teams with a winning record, 3-1 O/U vs the AFC East and 3-7-1 O/U on the road with most of the games played in poor weather. The Super Bowl has seen inflated Totals lines in recent years as Vegas has overcompensated for casual fans rooting for scoring & there has been 3 straight Unders. This is an advantage here as the public will perceive the Giants to be a "run to control the clock team." The Giants have avg'd 28 ppg the L5 & can use the run game to open up the pass attack for Manning. The Giants have also faced the NE defense just 4 games ago & Manning will be able to recognize tendencies to
attack. Brady gets to face a depleted Giants secondary that will have to gamble to keep up with the
WR's & Maroney's 122 yds rushing in each of the L2 games will keep them honest. These teams posted
73 points in the season finale & should have similar success in ideal conditions.

FORECAST: OVER 53' RATING: 2★
 

GIANTS007

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L O C K O F T H E D A Y

Superbowl Lock:

NY Giants +12.5

There is no reason to think the results will be different from the game they played five weeks ago!! Why would it!? That night the Giants gave the Patriots everything they could handle. The fact is, the Patriots have not been the same team that sliced through NFL in the first half of the season. Teams are figuring them out. They rely too heavily on the passing game. New England has failed to cover in three of the past four!

LOCK OF THE MONTH!!!!!!

Tom Brady UNDER 1.5 Yds Rushing

Gotta go in depth to understand this bet. Out of the hundreds of prop bets, there are a few that stand out. Taking the Over on this bet is a true SUCKER BET. THE UNDER IS AN ABSOLUTE LOCK. First of all, Tom Brady does not run the football! He loves to stay in the pocket and throw the ball. When Brady is under pressure, he throws the ball away, he does not run it!! Second, Tom Brady has an injured ankle!!! He had a protective cast on his foot last week! Third, The Giants pass rush is the best in the NFL!! They will sack Brady countless times!!! Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora are Pro Bowl defensive ends. They could knock Brady out of the game! Lastly, and this is the most important 'wise guy' info, Brady will most likely take a kneel-down or two. Nobody thinks about this. At the end of the game, the Patriots will most likely be winning. Brady will kneel on the ball once or twice, resulting in negative rushing yards. He could do it at the end of the first half as well. Tom Brady's rushing yards versus the Giants in Week 17: -4 yards! Brady versus the Chargers two weeks ago: -2 yards. Brady versus the Jags: +1 rushing yard. THIS IS THE BET!!!! THIS IS WHERE WE ARE PUTTING ALL OF OUR MONEY! This Lock is worth THREE Locks wins, or three Lock losses. MAKE THIS BET!!!!!!!!!!!!



? Most Vegas sportsbooks have this Prop Bet at Brady Rushing Yds Over 1.5 -140; Under +110

? Sportsbook.com line: Brady Over 1.5 yds -145; Under +115

? Bodog.com: Brady Over 2 yds -125: Under -105
 

GIANTS007

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Vegas Vic (8-1-1 in playoffs)

New York Giants +12 (but he has New England winning the game in the ballpark of 31-24)


Vegas Vic's selection

Please indulge me for a few sentences, because this is one season that Double V wishes would roll on and on . . .
No matter what happens with the Super Sunday selection, I'll finish at least a dozen games over .500, and the playoff run (8-1-1) has been making it very tough to fit my wallet - and I hope yours - in my back pocket. Alas, the season must end, but not before we pick the Super Bowl. So, for those who have been riding Vic and all the playoff underdogs to the winner's circle, you can start barking right now.

How can you possibly ignore New York's numbers, both as a 'dog and, even more impressive, on the road? The Giants have ripped off an NFL single-season record 10 straight road wins and have covered nine of those. They are working on a 5-0 spread run, as well.

We also remember the regular-season finale, when New York went toe-to-toe, blow-for-blow with New England, and came up three points short. Despite what Plaxico Burress said, the Pats should score more than 17 points (that could be a first-quarter total) and should dance off the field with their fourth Super Bowl title in the last 7 years. As for the final score, 31-24 sounds about right. *
 

GIANTS007

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Players of America

(5-2 this year on 5* rated plays)

2008 Super Bowl

New England Patriots -12 (50 Units)

***SUPER BOWL PLAY OF THE YEAR***



The New York Giants are officially the NFC Conference Champions for this season after capping off an incredible end with a huge win in Green Bay in freezing cold weather almost two weeks ago on Sunday. I know right off the bat that everyone is going to jump on the Giants in this game because of their 38-35 loss to these same Patriots in the final regular season game of the year but betting based on that would be a huge mistake because how many times do you see return matches be as close or as blowout-ish as the first ones? Almost never. The Giants are in incredible form ever since their come from behind win over the Bills late in the season and I don't think anyone thought that they could walk into Tampa Bay to steal a win, walk into Dallas to steal a win and walk into Green Bay and steal a win. I don't think any of those teams had more than 2-3 home losses all season. So the Giants are now an incredible 10-1 AWAY FROM HOME THIS SEASON and they have gone 10-1 ATS in those very same games. So you must wonder how one can fade this team under these circumstances but its not tough because looking back on their season, the Giants (prior to the playoffs), played on the road and beat Buffalo (non playoff team), Philadelphia (non playoff team), Chicago (non playoff team), Detroit (non playoff team), Miami (non playoff team), Atlanta (non playoff team) and last but not least Washington (playoff team). So before coming into the playoffs the Giants had beat only playoff team on the road. I have a feeling some of their momentum is gone and that's going to be a huge issue for this team. The Giants come into this game averaging 23.2 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 325.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. What people tend to underestimate is how well the Patriots have played on the defensive side of things this season having allowed only 17.0 points per game this season and having allowed only 293.0 total yards of offense per game on the year and 5.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Giants are going to need both RB Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to be at their best in this game as the team has average 130.2 rushing yards per game this season on 4.4 yards per carry in those games. We all know that New England has had problems stopping the run but if the Giants go down early I don't see how running the ball is going to get them anywhere. New England has allowed only 97.6 rushing yards per game this season and allowed 4.4 yards carry in those games. In the air, QB Eli Manning has waited for this for quite some time and you can bet your bottom dollar he is going to be nervous. Manning has completed 56.3% of his passes this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 3336 total passing yards, 23 touchdown passes and 20 interceptions. He is going up against this New England defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 59.6% of their passes on the season for 5.9 yards per pass attempt and that is exactly what they need to keep it at. The Patriots are just as good as the Giants when it comes to the pass rush as they average 2.7 sacks per game this season and are facing an offensive line that has allowed 1.8 sacks per game on the season. I also like the fact that the Pats have a bunch of playmaking aggressive guys in their secondary as they have picked off 1.2 passes this season which could be a huge problem for Eli when he faces them for the second time this season after looking brilliant the first time out. I would love to say that the Giants have gone without too many fumbling problems this season but they have fumbled the ball 1.6 times per game and any type of mistake like that is really going to be a big problem in this game because the Super Bowl is all about who can make the bigger plays. The Giants have not exactly been all that good when it comes to third down conversions this season as they have managed to convert only 41.6% of their chances on the year and that is going to be a problem again this Patriots defense that has allowed their opponents to complete only 33.5% of their third down chances on the season. If you are going to win the biggest game of them all you need to be good in the Red Zone and the Giants have now scored touchdowns in 56.1% of their Red Zone entries this season which doesn't bode well for them seeing how New England has allowed opponents to score touchdowns 55.3% of the time once entering the Red Zone. The key to this game for this offense is going to be how fast they can get back into the groove that they had at the end of the season. Its never easy starting from scratch after two weeks off and getting back into the motions is very difficult. Eli Manning is no Peyton Manning and that has me concerned because he lacks the big game experience that guys like Brady and Manning have playing in AFC Championship Games or Super Bowl Games. I think the offense is going to stutter terribly if the Patriots come out swinging and if the Patriots take a big lead by the half they lights are just not coming back on. The Patriots have played decent defense all season and that's all that really matter.

The New England Patriots thought they had it all, they have the perfect 16-0 record on the season, they are now the best team to ever play the game of American Football but you and me and everyone all know that this season will not be complete if this team does not bring home the Super Bowl on Sunday. Nothing matters unless you bring home that ring and nothing matters unless you win the one game that actually means something for once. Now the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl did not come without event as it was announced that QB Tom Brady could possibly have some kind of broken foot or broken bone in his foot as he was seen walking around with a cast boot on his foot but it has not been confirmed as nothing more than precautionary measures for his ankle problem that has been coming on and off all season. This injury should not hamper the teams chances at all and I don't see why Brady would be affected by this. Now looking back on how the Pats did on the road compared to how they did at home (ATS wise that is), it seems like they played with a lot less pressure away from home this season where they went 5-3 ATS on the year and where odds makers never really gave them enough credit in those games. I know its really tough for some of you to back a team that is now 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall and that has not even covered the spread one single time this post-season but I'm telling you that the two weeks off are going to have made all the difference in the world with this Patriots team and if the Giants are not ready for what is coming, this game is going to be done by the time we hit the half, I'm sure you've heard me say that before. New England comes into this game averaging a whopping 35.6 points per game this season and no matter what they have done this post season , there is no doubt in my mind that the Patriots are going to match this average and they are going to probably score more than that. In those games, the Pats also managed to average a whopping 407.2 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play which is good enough if their defense can hold off the G-Men, unlike the final week of the season. The Giants are actually a lot better than people assume on the defensive side of things as they have allowed only 21.2 points per game this season and have allowed 303.2 total yards of offense per game in those games for 5.2 yards per play which is pretty damn good. The Patriots running game is important but its not key to the win and cover here as they average only 119.1 rushing yards per game this season on 4.2 yards per carry while the Giants have managed to hold teams to only 95.1 rushing yards per game on the season and 3.8 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Tom Brady is the master of Super Bowl Games having never actually lost in the Super Bowl and although that is not about to change this time around, I would like to point out that experience of playing in more than one of these games is priceless. Brady has completed an impressive 68.9% of his passes this season for 4806 passing yards, 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 50 TOUCHDOWN PASSES and only 8 INTERCEPTIONS!!!. Now that is some incredible stuff for a QB who also had a QB Rating of 117.2 on the season. The Giants secondary needs to show up for this game or it will get ugly in a hurry as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 57.8% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt which is plenty of space and time for Tom Brady to get the job done. Brady has been well protected all season as the offensive line has been great and they have allowed only 1.3 sacks per game. That's the best news Patriots backers could hear is that the O-Line is well rested because they are going to have their hands full with a Giants pass rush that is the best by far in the NFL (by at least 10 sacks) and that is averaging a whopping 2.9 sacks per game on the season. I would not say that it has been easy for Giants opponents to move the ball through the air because it hasn't but the opportunities are there and I am sure that Tom Brady is going to take full advantage of the situation. Unlike the Giants, the Patriots have not had and do no have a problem holding onto the fumble as they have lost only 15 fumbles all season and that is probably one of the lowest margins or amounts in the NFL. We all know how aggressive the pass rush is and how aggressive some of these defenders are but the Patriots just plain and simply don't make big mistakes and that's not changing here. What makes the Patriots once again the more enticing wager in this game is the fact that they are converting a whopping 49.1% of their third down chances this season and going up against a Giants team that has now allowed opponents to convert 37.1% of the time. Moving onto the Red Zone attack, the Patriots have the best Red Zone offense in the NFL as they have scored touchdown in a crazy 69.5% of the times they have entered the Red Zone. That is definitely not a good sign for the Giants who have allowed their opponents to score touchdowns in 60.0% of their Red Zone entries this season. You know there is really not much else to be said about this team other than they are amazing, they have the best offense in all of football, this is the biggest game of most of their careers. The offense should have no problems moving the ball and picking apart the Giants and as long as there are no significant injuries, I say this game is going to be a blowout. This is a team that is going to score close to 40 points every single time you see them and if they can get that going in this game, there is no chance that the Giants are going to pull the office stung that got us our doc killed. LMAO! I expect this offense to be pure Bill Bellichik and his mastermind stuff which is why I am betting on the guys and the coaches who have already won Super Bowl wins with this game. New England is here because they mean business and the Giants just don't have the defense to keep up in this game. I say blowout in this game and I say yet another boring super bowl.

This is the way I look at this game guys. If you watched TV the last two weeks, if you followed experts on message boards, if you read the newspapers, if you bought some analysis online, if you filled out your Super Bowl props and picks sheet and if you are watching this football game on Sunday, the odds are that everyone is on the Giants assuming that they can do exactly what they did the first time against the Patriots in that season ending game that allowed New England to go a perfect 16-0 on the season. However, what you have to understand about that first meeting was that the Giants had absolutely nothing to lose, they were loose, they were having fun and they were hoping for the best to come out of that game and it did. The Patriots on the other hand had been fighting week in and week out the entire season to keep their perfect record and we know how banged up they were and they were most definitely very vulnerable the first time against these Giants. Now...they are coming off a full two weeks of rest, preparation and practice where they most definitely went over tons and tons of game tape from the first meeting and I don't think there is much more to argue about here other than the fact that the Patriots have more experience, they are the better team, they are not going to have a perfect season and lose this game. I love that everyone is on the Giants and that the Giants are the flavor of the month because its rare that Super Bowl Games are close and this one should be no different this year. You cannot possibly think that the Pats are going to revert to the close type of games they played in the second half of the season and if you ask me this game is going to be out of hand by the time we hit the half and the Patriots are going to sail to the best overall season in professional sports history. They deserve it and betting on the Giants to keep things close is a huge mistake in this game.

Trend of the Game: New England is 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games played on natural grass.


New England 42, NY Giants 13 (LOL - NEVER!! )
 

slice8

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Can anyone verify that Brandon Lang is 15-0-2 in the Super Bowl? That sounds like a ridiculous claim. I mean really?

He was absolutely nothing special during the regular season. Just sounds like one of those TV lies to me... no documentation.

Help from anyone on this would be apprec...

Also anyone hear from Hank Goldberg yet on his pick? Either radio (doubtful) or ESPN (maybe).
 

GIANTS007

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Dan Gordon

Here we are as another NFL season concludes. In this wirteup, I will give my Super Bowl prediction and analysis as well as a possible selection that will be counted in the record. I will also list a few Super Bowl props that I think represent good value. After some thinking, none of these props will be "official" picks since clients have extremely varied access to propositions on this game. And with off-shore and Vegas betting being varied in terms of client access, I will thus just list a few props. I hope that as many clients as possible can win money on them.
Letter Power Ratings
A Patriots
B- Giants
Super Bowl Power Rating: Patriots by 13 over Giants
Super Bowl Selection: Patriots on the money line (odds to just win the game) laying up to -4.00 (I think that just about all clients have access to money line wagering). Risk enough to win 1/2 a normal bet. (Here we will say that we will risk $1,200 to win $300)
Analysis: Patriots -12 over Giants (on point spread I have just an opinion and this is NOT an official selection)
Generally in all sports, I hate to lay big points. I certainly don\'t want to here since there is just a small difference between my power rating on this game (Pats by 13) and the line that is out there. Perhaps, I\'d be willing to lay -10, but certainly no more than that. And it is most doubtful that the line will go that low.
For the most part money lines tend to be inflated on the favorites. The only value in betting them is generally with the underdog. When I compare the money lines on games with my charts (which show the long-time percentages as to how often a given spread favorite wins the game), the favorite is almost always overpriced. One well-known big bettor I know named The Degenerate has given up a huge part of his $3 billion inheritance by betting big spread money lines ("gezz, ALL they have to do is win the damn game!!") in both the NFL and NBA.
However, in a number of Super Bowls this changes. For some reason, a number of large price underdogs attract the attention of the betting public on the underdog. I guess that this is the lure of risking a little to win a lot (something that happens in many boxing matchups according to long-time boxing expert, Robitussin Bottle). It seems especially surprsing that this would happen in THIS year\'s Super Bowl since the Patriots--while losing eight of the last ten against the point spread--have cashed every money line bet this year since they have won all 18 games outright. But this phenomena is happening once again as prices just over my strike point of -4.00 have appeared. With my power rating on this game being -13 on the Patriots, I feel that the real money line just based on that price is about -7.00. That alone represents value. And for reasons soon to come, I think that the Patriot chances of winning this game are even better than that.
One last note about seemingly getting great odds when betting long shots in sports. Usually (though certainly not always) the long shots represent the worst values available (calculated by doing the needed multiplication). To the earners out there these "great prices" are really called "sweets for the sucker."
These teams played in the last week of the regular season: a game in which the Pats went off as 13 point road favorites at Giants Stadium. Thus if that game were played on a neutral field, the Pats would have been about 16 point favorites. With the line being the Pats by 12 in this rematch five weeks later, it is ebing shown that the Giants are getting more respect from the oddsmakers and the public.
As probably they should. The Giants have covered five straight games while the Pats have lost to the spread seven of the last eight. Two Sundays ago, the Giants beat a hot Packers club in frigid Green Bay in a game they really controlled far more than the three point overtime win indicated. Unlike their wins at Tampa Bay and Dallas, the Giants beat a team that had been playing well BEFORE this game. Meanwhile the Patriots struggled somewhat in beating the very wounded Chargers, 21-12, in another non-cover for them (as 14 point favorites). Tom Bradyd\\ had by far his worst game of the season in throwing three interceptions. Meanwhile Eli Manning has thrown zero interceptions in three playoff games.
Thus it seems that the Giants are reaching their peak while the Pats have fallen from their incredible early season highs. And most bettors--"sharp" and otherwise have taken the points on the Giants. Two rather smart people I know that side with the Giants are my long-time friend, Robitussin Bottle, as well as present big bettor, The Grown Up Juvenile Delinquent. Whiel I am not that eager to go against their spread opinions, I, unlike them don\'t think that the Giants have very much chance to win or even be much competitive in this game (though The Grown Up Juvenile Delinquent did say that he might lay back some -10 1/2 if the line dips down that far--however, he often goes for such middles).
Six reasons I feel as I do about this game.
1) The Giant players and coaches have often recently said that their season closing 38-35 loss to the Patriots has "inspired" them and made them feel that they "can beat anybody." This seems very strange to me. First of all, the Giants DID lose the game!! Kind fo reminds me of whn some well-known internet frauds lose their "back up the truck" or "lock" selections yet again, they whine that they "came close to winning," or that "every sharp bettor liked their side" or such stuff like that. Guess that the worst that the Giants can do this week is come in second place in the game--just as these losing bettors can do no worse than come in second place on their team sports side bets!!
In that game, the Giants led 28-16 with 9:12 left in the third quarter. The Patriots then took total control of the game marching 73, 65 (long pass to randy Moss), and 52 yards on their next three possessions to put the game away with this 22-0 surge. The Giants then answered with a garbage touchdown but the game had been decided. Also when you consider that one of the earlier Giant touchdowns in the game came on a kickoff return (a fluke and lucky kind of play). The Pats had a 27-19 first down edge in the game, as well as a 36:18-23:42 clock edge and a 390-316 (Giants got 68 of their yards on the late consolation TD) edge.
In summary, in spite of Eli Manning playing great (many writers called this his best game ever), the Patriots still basically controlled and won this game much more easily than the final score indicated.
2) The Patriot scoring has gone down late in the year. In their first ten games, they averaged 41.1 points a game scoring under 34 only at Indianpolis (against probably the second best team in the league). In their last eight games (including the two playoff wins), the Patriots have scored "only" 28.75 points a game. However, what is unnoticed is that the Pats were playing in cold weather sites in each of these games. Cold and sometimes windy weather hurts a high powered passing game like the Patriots have. The Super Bowl will be played in Arizona. The temperature will be much higher than it was in the last eight Patriot games and I suspect that their point total will also rise. Also, despite the cold weather in New Jersey, the Patriots did score 38 points in that game.
3) Most times when Bill (AKA Pot Roast Hair) Bellichik has his defense face a quarterback for a second time, he makes adjustments and causes problems for them (a key for one of my prop bets). While a couple fo games in 2006 (like the AFC Title game against the Colts) provided exceptions to this, this generally holds. This season in second matchups, the Pats held Chad (AKA Chicken Ears) Pennington of the Jets to a field goal on offense (Jets scored a TD off of a blocked punt in that game) after they had scored two touchdowns the first time, held the Dolphins and Cleo Lemon to one touchdown after giving up three in the first game (Dolphins had an intercpetion return for a TD in that game), held Losman of the Bills to ten points after allowing seven to Edwards--who replaced an injured Losman early in that game--in the first game. lasly, the Chargers and Philip Rivers were kept out of the endzone in the AFC Title game; in their Week 2 game, the Chargers scored two touchdowns.
Eli Manning will be shown coverages that he has never seen before and I feel that this will cut down greatly on the 35 points the Giants scored in the first game. These new coverages will have him make mistakes as well.
4) The Giants have already far exceeded anyone\'s (especially mine since I bet them under eight wins!!) for them this season. Even if they get blown out this Sunday, 2007 has still been a super year for them. Meanwhile the Patriots will feel that the season will end in total failure if they lose this Sunday, All the talk of a perfect season and being one of the great teams ever will just seem like a cruel tease if they should lose. To round out this picture, the Patriots have eight players who have won three Super Bowls with them. The Giants have two players who were with them when they lost 34-7 to the Ravens in the 2001 Super Bowl. I don\'t believe they have a single player who has won a Super Bowl. Thus the Patriots seem to have a big edge handling the pressure--media and otherwise--of the Super Bowl.
I also feel that the Patriots not only want to win this game and the championship and thus go 19-0, but want to make a statement doing so. And no matter what they say publically, the Giants are somewhat "just happy to be there."
5) The bye week will help the "aged" Patriots. It was said that the Patriots showed their age late in the year on defense. With a week\'s rest, they will show their age less this week. After their other bye week, the Patriots destroyed the Bills, 56-10, when they scored touchdowns on their first seven offensive possessions.
6) While Tom Brady\'s performance has stpped back a little bit lately, the Patriots have greatly improved their running game. Against a Charger defense that is probably better against the run than the Giants are, the Patriots got nearly five yards a rush (31-149, as well as 13 rushing first downs). This running attack should make Brady\'s passing even more effective than it would otherwise be. .
Thus, in summary, i feel that the Patriots will have a strong game offensively, much more similiar to what they did early in the season than late in the season. Their defense will cause problems for Eli Manning.And if they can shut down the Gant running game (more a question mark in my mind and the one hope the Giants have of staying at all close in the game), this could be one of the all-time routs in Super Bowl history.
In any event, the Patriots figure to win rather comfortably. And lastly, as I\'ve mentioned before, even with a win, the Patriots will not, in my opinion, be the greatest NFL team of alll-time. The 1985 Bears (led by an incredible defense and quarterback Jim--AKA Punk Man--McMahon) and the 1989 49ers (led by another great defense and quarterback Joe--AKA Flying Prezel Wing Ears--Montana) would be able to handle this year\'s Pats. But the Pats are the best team since free agency came to the NFL in 1993. And they are far the best that the NFL had to offer in 2007.
Prediction: Patriots 45, Giants 20
A few props that I like:
1) Giants NOT to score in every quarter: One can probably lay up to -2.00 on this and have value)
2) Giants to call the first time out of the game (Pot Roast Hair\'s defensive coverages could well cause this--one can probably lay up to 1.30 and have value here).
3) Eli Manning to throw an interception in the game (Giants probably being well behind much of the game makes this likely as well as the confusing coverages he\'ll see). One can probably lay up to -2.50 on this and have value.
 
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