SUPER BOWL SUNDAY: FEB. 3RD 2008
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gridiron sports advantage from the donn wagner group // TOP PLAY NEW ENGLAND // PAID-CONFIRMED !! PS-LOOKING FOR STAN LISOWSKI'S,ALSO KNOWN AS STAT REPORT PROPS,ALSO LOOKING FOR PHIL STEELE'S PROPS // BOTH THESE GUYS DO PROPS WELL !!
VEGAS JOEY FROM DONN WAGNER GROUP // new england under // this dude has hit 13 of his last 15 nfl selections !!
TheChicagoSportsConnection
WAKE FOREST +4.5 @ NC State
12:00 EST WAKE 4-2 ATS as dogNCST 2-8 ATS as favNCST 2-4 SU + ATS vs ACC 2:00 EST
WISCONSIN -1.5 @ Minnesota
2:00 ESTWISC 11-1 SU in L12MINN 3-5 SU in L8Two teams heading in opposite directions.
WAKE FOREST +4.5 @ NC State
12:00 EST WAKE 4-2 ATS as dogNCST 2-8 ATS as favNCST 2-4 SU + ATS vs ACC 2:00 EST
WISCONSIN -1.5 @ Minnesota
2:00 ESTWISC 11-1 SU in L12MINN 3-5 SU in L8Two teams heading in opposite directions.
Dave Malinsky Prop Bets
COMP
SUPER BOWL XLII ? Prop Shop
Once again we are finding sports books going over the top a bit in terms of esoteric props for this year?s Super Bowl, almost to the point of absurdity ? at many places less than half of all props on the board will even draw action. But while we have found some offerings of value in those nooks and crannies, our focus here will be on items that are readily available. We will use a basic consensus line as the estimate for each proposition, and also let you know at which point we believe the value ends.
TOM BRADY -30.5 1st Half Passing Yards vs. ELI MANNING -140
Although some of the early value has gotten away, consider this a play up to -150. We anticipate entirely different approaches from the two teams in the early part of this game ? for the Giants it will be all about slowing the tempo and keeping the game in a manageable state, while we believe the Patriots will attack with a lot of aggression. Do not be surprised if the Patriots spread the field and throw on every down in some early drives, building a game plan around wearing down Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora by getting them gassed early. When these two met on the final week of the regular season the Patriots passed on 61.1 percent of their first half snaps (not counting a late kneel down by Brady), and that ratio should be even higher here.
BRANDON JACOBS +2.5 1st Half Rushes vs. LAURENCE MARONEY -135
A play to -140. In many ways this comes out of the same concept as our first play, with the focus being on the game plans of the teams. Note that you can also find Jacobs at +11.5 yards vs. Maroney for the first half as well, but we would prefer to focus on attempts, since there is a greater chance of Maroney breaking a big run than there is for Jacobs.
YES Score in first 7:30 -220
We see as low as -210 and as high as -230 for this one, make the latter the upper limit for the play. The Patriots do not get stopped often on their opening drive because of that combination of talent, execution and game planning abilities, but there is also not anything all that special about their defense. And in nearly perfect conditions, we would expect field goal attempts to be converted at an efficient rate. The major risk here is an early ball-control drive by the Giants, but we are comfortable with that at this price.
LAURENCE MARONEY Under 19.5 Rushing Attempts -115
This one is good to -120. The books did a little of the usual shading here by giving a RB from a big favorite a high expectation, but that will not be the case. Maroney only reached this plateau when the weather conditions were not favorable for passing this season, and again we can refer to the game plan expectations above.
RANDY MOSS -20.5 Receiving Yards vs. PLAXICO BURRESS +110
We are surprised to find this one moving to the plus price range, and it works at even money or better. As great as the Moss numbers were this season they could have been even better ? with the Patriots having so many big leads, and also playing so many late-season games in less than ideal conditions, a brilliant season could have been even better. Despite some ?character? perceptions by others we expect him to come up big in this setting, and look for Brady to attack deep down the field often against a vulnerable Giant secondary. The lack of wind and the ideal field conditions certainly make it even easier. Burress was huge against the Packers because of their insistence on trying to play him physically at the line of scrimmage, which backfired. A different defensive scheme this time.
FIRST PLAY is a Pass -130
Make this good to -140. It would not come as a shock to us if the Patriots did not run at all on their first possession. And while the Giants would love to control the football, running into a stacked defense on the first play is not a way to build momentum. Expect a safe play action pass if they have the ball first, to also try to get Eli Manning an easy completion to ease his nerves.
As for bet size, there is the usual Super Sunday issue of Profit vs. Pleasure. And of course, the limits on props from your own outlets, and the lines that you are able to play at. So for many of you it can be as much of an entertainment issue as anything else, while some of these can be played stronger than others based on the actual lines available. Give our usual 4* - 5* - 6* rating scale we would be playing in the 1.5* range, especially since we are laying vigorish on most of our chosen options.
COMP
SUPER BOWL XLII ? Prop Shop
Once again we are finding sports books going over the top a bit in terms of esoteric props for this year?s Super Bowl, almost to the point of absurdity ? at many places less than half of all props on the board will even draw action. But while we have found some offerings of value in those nooks and crannies, our focus here will be on items that are readily available. We will use a basic consensus line as the estimate for each proposition, and also let you know at which point we believe the value ends.
TOM BRADY -30.5 1st Half Passing Yards vs. ELI MANNING -140
Although some of the early value has gotten away, consider this a play up to -150. We anticipate entirely different approaches from the two teams in the early part of this game ? for the Giants it will be all about slowing the tempo and keeping the game in a manageable state, while we believe the Patriots will attack with a lot of aggression. Do not be surprised if the Patriots spread the field and throw on every down in some early drives, building a game plan around wearing down Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora by getting them gassed early. When these two met on the final week of the regular season the Patriots passed on 61.1 percent of their first half snaps (not counting a late kneel down by Brady), and that ratio should be even higher here.
BRANDON JACOBS +2.5 1st Half Rushes vs. LAURENCE MARONEY -135
A play to -140. In many ways this comes out of the same concept as our first play, with the focus being on the game plans of the teams. Note that you can also find Jacobs at +11.5 yards vs. Maroney for the first half as well, but we would prefer to focus on attempts, since there is a greater chance of Maroney breaking a big run than there is for Jacobs.
YES Score in first 7:30 -220
We see as low as -210 and as high as -230 for this one, make the latter the upper limit for the play. The Patriots do not get stopped often on their opening drive because of that combination of talent, execution and game planning abilities, but there is also not anything all that special about their defense. And in nearly perfect conditions, we would expect field goal attempts to be converted at an efficient rate. The major risk here is an early ball-control drive by the Giants, but we are comfortable with that at this price.
LAURENCE MARONEY Under 19.5 Rushing Attempts -115
This one is good to -120. The books did a little of the usual shading here by giving a RB from a big favorite a high expectation, but that will not be the case. Maroney only reached this plateau when the weather conditions were not favorable for passing this season, and again we can refer to the game plan expectations above.
RANDY MOSS -20.5 Receiving Yards vs. PLAXICO BURRESS +110
We are surprised to find this one moving to the plus price range, and it works at even money or better. As great as the Moss numbers were this season they could have been even better ? with the Patriots having so many big leads, and also playing so many late-season games in less than ideal conditions, a brilliant season could have been even better. Despite some ?character? perceptions by others we expect him to come up big in this setting, and look for Brady to attack deep down the field often against a vulnerable Giant secondary. The lack of wind and the ideal field conditions certainly make it even easier. Burress was huge against the Packers because of their insistence on trying to play him physically at the line of scrimmage, which backfired. A different defensive scheme this time.
FIRST PLAY is a Pass -130
Make this good to -140. It would not come as a shock to us if the Patriots did not run at all on their first possession. And while the Giants would love to control the football, running into a stacked defense on the first play is not a way to build momentum. Expect a safe play action pass if they have the ball first, to also try to get Eli Manning an easy completion to ease his nerves.
As for bet size, there is the usual Super Sunday issue of Profit vs. Pleasure. And of course, the limits on props from your own outlets, and the lines that you are able to play at. So for many of you it can be as much of an entertainment issue as anything else, while some of these can be played stronger than others based on the actual lines available. Give our usual 4* - 5* - 6* rating scale we would be playing in the 1.5* range, especially since we are laying vigorish on most of our chosen options.
Sports Investors Network
New York Giants @ New England Patriots
NFL: VS
Game Date: 2/3/2008 | GameTime: 6:35 EST
Pick: NYG+12.5// FIVE UNITS -110
About this Pick:
The Patriots are 1 game away from the first 19-0 season in NFL history, with the Giants being the final hurdle in Super Bowl XLII on Sunday. The teams met just five weeks ago in the final game of the regular season where New York almost spoiled New England ?s plans for a perfect season. The Giants had a double-digit second-half lead before falling, 38-35, but easily covering the double-digit pointspread. The Patriots have a chance to make their mark in history with a victory here. After winning Super Bowls following the 2001, 2003, and 2004 season, they can become just the second team in NFL history to win four titles in a seven-year span. The Steelers and 49ers are currently the only franchises to win four Super Bowl titles in a single decade, another exclusive club New England could join with a victory. While the game is viewed by some as being the final and inevitable step toward New England 's coronation, a red-hot Giants team figures to have something to say about the matter. New York is in the Super Bowl for the first time in seven years thanks to consecutive playoff road wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys, and Packers, and the Giants' 10 straight wins away from home this season are an NFL record. New York QB Eli Manning has undergone a playoff revelation marked by sound decision- making and a minimal number of mistakes. Manning has completed 62% of his throws and not committed a turnover in New York 's three postseason games. Manning's outstanding run actually began with a strong outing against New England in Week 17, when he went 22-of-32 for 251 yards and tossed FOUR TD passes. Since an interception thrown by Manning late in that game, the Giants offense has gone 33 possessions and 194 plays without a turnover. New York's receiving corps possesses a strong blend of size, experience and youth in the threesome of Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Steve Smith. The 6-foot-5, 232-pound Burress can be a matchup nightmare for opposing defensive backs, as Green Bay 's Al Harris recently found out first-hand. Burress manhandled the Pro Bowl corner with an 11 -catch, 151-yard performance in the NFC Championship and also caught two scoring passes from Manning in the Giants' 38-35 loss to the Patriots in late December. The Giants have had to get by without the services of four-time Pro Bowler TE Jeremy Shockey since he broke his fibula in a mid-December loss to Washington; however, rookie Kevin Boss has proven to be a useful fill-in at the position, as evidenced by a four-catch, 50-yard effort with a touchdown in the first meeting with New England. The Giants "thunder-and-lightning" backfield of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw has been quite effective, especially late in the season, and will likely be the focus of the Patriots defense. New England has a talented defensive line, but ranked near the bottom of the league with 4.4 yards allowed per carry during the regular season. The Patriots also have a pair of highly-decorated linebackers in the middle of their four-man group, with former Pro Bowlers Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau occupying those places. Once regarded as an area of weakness and inexperience for the Patriots, the cornerback position is now well-equipped with Asante Samuel, Ellis Hobbs, and Randall Gay. The safety position is also an area of strength for New England, as starters Rodney Harrison, James Sanders, and top backup Eugene Wilson all bring a great deal of experience to the table. It wasn?t defense that carried the Patriots this season though, it was Tom Brady and the offense. MVP Brady comes off one of the great statistical seasons in NFL history, but struggled in the AFC Championship Game with 3 interceptions and has a gimpy right ankle. Brady was hurt in the third quarter of New England ?s win over the Chargers, but has had 2 weeks to heal up for Sunday?s game. Brady was 32-of-42 for 356 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants in Week 17 of the regular season. WR Randy Moss had a monster regular season but has disappeared in the playoffs. Moss has touched the football just three times in the post-season, catching two balls for 32 yards and carrying once for 14 yards. Moss had six catches for 100 yards and a pair of TDs against the Giants in the regular season finale, so the Giants will certainly try to keep him quiet in the Super Bowl. Slot receiver Wes Welker has 16 catches for 110 yards and two touchdowns in the playoffs thus far, and logged 11 grabs for 122 yards versus the G-Men last time out. Donte' Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney also both had their moments during the regular season. Tight end Benjamin Watson remains a trusted red- zone target for Brady. Running back Laurence Maroney has generated a major impact for the Patriots during the playoffs after taking a back seat to Brady and the passing game for much of the regular season. In his last five games overall, Maroney has averaged 110 rushing yards and scored seven touchdowns, although he was held to 46 yards on 19 carries against the Giants in Week 17. The Patriots rushed for 4.4 yards per carry during the regular season, but New England backs amassed just 48 yards on 22 combined totes against New York . New York recorded only one sack in that game, but they will certainly look to bring the pressure on Sunday. Ends Osi Umenyiora, Michael Strahan, and Justin Tuck have been wreaking havoc all year long, and the trio will be counted on to make Brady uncomfortable in the pocket for the Giants to have a chance to pull off the upset. While the pass rushers get most of the defensive attention for New York , the Giants did finish eighth in the NFL against the run allowing less than 98 ypg. The solid play of interior linemen Fred Robbins and Barry Cofield had much to do with that lofty ranking, but perhaps no player is more valuable to the Giants on defense than middle linebacker Antonio Pierce, the team's top tackler and a vocal presence in the huddle. No position on the Giants' defense has experienced as much flux as that of cornerback, as recent injuries to Sam Madison, Aaron Ross, and Kevin Dockery have really tested the team's depth. New York has been able to survive, however, because reserves Corey Webster and R.W. McQuarters have stepped up their play at a most crucial time. The pair have accounted for all five of the team's interceptions during the postseason, with Webster setting up Lawrence Tynes' game-winning field goal in the NFC Championship by picking off Brett Favre in overtime. Both Madison and Ross returned to action in the conference title game, while Dockery has a good chance of playing in the Super Bowl as well. This is great news considering the weapons New York will be facing in the game. In the special teams department, the teams are pretty even. Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes? 47-yard overtime field goal propelled New York to victory over Green Bay in the NFC Championship, but he also misfired on a pair of three-point tries. Tynes was 23-of- 27 on field goals during the regular season, with all four of those misses from inside 40 yards. Punter Jeff Feagles no longer boasts a powerful leg -- his 40.4 yard average was the second-lowest in the league -- but he's still quite adept at pinning in the opposition with his kicks. McQuarters averaged a mediocre 7.6 yards per punt return during the regular season, but did come up with a key 25-yard runback in New York's upset victory at Dallas in the Divisional round. The Patriots are fully aware of the capabilities of New York kickoff returner Domenik Hixon, as the young backup wideout had a 74-yard kick return touchdown when the two teams met in the regular-season finale. Hixon, claimed off waivers from Denver in October, has also performed well on returns this postseason, averaging 25.1 yards on 10 attempts. New York has been very strong on punt coverage this year, having limited the opposition to just 6.2 yards per return prior to the playoffs, good for 5th best in the NFL. The Pats' Stephen Gostkowski has attempted just two field goals in the 2007 postseason to date, missing on a 35-yarder and making one from the same distance in the Divisional Playoff win over Jacksonville. He was 21-of-24 during the regular season, including 3-of -5 from 40 yards-plus, and hit a season-high-tying 45-yarder during a 3-for-3 night against the Giants in Week 17. Gostkowski ranked among NFL leaders with 15 touchbacks during the regular season, but has just two in his last nine games. Punter Chris Hanson was the least-used regular punter in the NFL with just 44 kicks, and has booted the ball only five times in the playoffs. New England is likely to use either Welker or Faulk on punt returns, as both have appeared at the spot during the 2007 postseason. Welker was the Pats' primary return man during the regular season, averaging 10 yards per attempt with his high a 35-yarder against Indianapolis in November. The Patriots have used both Maroney and Hobbs on kickoff returns during the postseason, and former second-round draft pick Chad Jackson was also utilized in that capacity against the Jaguars in the Divisional round. Hobbs was the club's usual return choice during the regular season, averaging more than 26 yards per return and scoring on a 108-yard play against the Jets back in Week 1. Due to the proficiency of their offense, the Patriots have a great deal of experience covering kickoffs, and not as much on punts. New England allowed a modest 22.1 yards per kickoff return during the regular season, and the only touchdown surrendered by that coverage group was Hixon's return in Week 17. The Patriots have the edge in most of the personnel categories, but it's not a decisive edge on many counts. The Giants proved in December that they have the ability to make this a game, and with the way they are peaking, there?s no reason to believe they won?t make this game very competitive once again. New York is 6-0 ATS since Week 10 when playing with revenge and not favored by a TD or more, while the Patriots are on an 0-5 spread run vs. opponents playing with revenge. In fact, the Giants are on quite a spread run themselves, going 8-0 ATS when not favored by more than 4 points. New England is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games. New York is also 9-0 ATS away from their home stadium when not favored by more than 9 points, to go along with their 10 straight SU victories on the road. We also have numerous SITUATIONS pointing to at least a Giants cover here. For starters, it turns out that after a close Playoff victory, teams have been battle-tested and very competitive in their next Playoff game. Specifically, playoff underdogs of 3+ points off a Playoff SU win of less than 7 points allowing less than 28 points in their last game (not as a home underdog) are a strong 15-0 ATS since 1998, beating the spread by nearly 10 ppg on average. This SITUATION is already 2-0 in this year?s playoffs, active for both of our WINNERS in the AFC and NFC Conference Championship Games two weekends ago. After making it to the Super Bowl with an underdog victory, teams have continued to play very well in recent seasons. Specifically, Super Bowl teams off a Conference Championship underdog SU win in their last game are 5-0 ATS since 2000 vs. opponents not favored off a Conference Championship underdog SU win in their last game, blasting the spread by nearly 17 ppg on average. Another SITUATION shows a similar result for teams off a road win in their Conference Championship Game. It states: Play ON a Super Bowl team off a Conference Championship road underdog SU win in its last game and not a SemiFinal ATS loss before that vs. an opponent not off a Conference Championship road SU win as a bigger underdog in its last game. Going back to 1990, these teams are 7-0-1 ATS, crushing the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average. The Giants defense continues to be under-rated, as most fans have focused on Eli Manning?s solid play in the post-season, but defense wins championships : Play ON a Conference Championship/Super Bowl team off 2 playoff SU & ATS wins allowing less than 21 points in each of its last 2 games game vs. an opponent not favored off 2 playoff SU & ATS wins allowing less than 21 points in each of its last 2 games. Since 1989, these teams are 17-0-3 ATS, beating the spread by 2 TDs per game. Those numbers include New York ?s qualify SU & ATS win at Green Bay for the NFC title. If we isolate this exact same situation to Super Bowls, we find that it has gone without a loss all the way to back to 1983. Since then, qualifying Super Bowl teams are 16-0-2 ATS, destroying the spread by more than 17 ppg on average! Sixteen of the 18 teams also won the game outright by a similar margin. Finally, we come to a Super Bowl situation that we developed several seasons ago and has brought us a winner each time. It?s a very simple and logical trend, as the team that has done better spread-wise in the postseason has continued to cover the number. Specifically, Play ON a Super Bowl team (not a favorite of more than 13 points) with the better ATS record in the current postseason (underdog if ATS records identical with only wins; favorite if ATS records identical with any losses/pushes). Since 1987, these teams are 16-0-2 ATS, covering the spread by more than 13 ppg on average. In last year?s Super Bowl, we played on the favored Colts, who had gone 3-0 ATS in the postseason over the Bears who went just 1-1 ATS in the playoffs. Indianapolis won and covered the spread, as did the Steelers the year before. Like the Giants this post- season, Pittsburgh went 3-0 SU & ATS leading up to the Super Bowl, winning 3 games on the road, while the Seahawks won 2 playoff games at home, just as the Pats have done this season. It wasn?t pretty, but the favored Steelers got the SU & ATS win over Seattle . In the 2 Super Bowls before that, this SITUATION indicated a play AGAINST New England , and was right both times. The Patriots were TD favorites against the Panthers and Eagles, and won by just a FG each time. In fact, New England has won all 3 of their Super Bowls by 3 points. They are a tremendous football team and have been for several seasons now, but they simply do not blow out their opponents in the Super Bowl, even when playing the weaker NFC. Not even a bye week has been a big boost for New England in the playoffs. Under Belichik, the Pats are 0-4 ATS when favored in the playoffs off a week of rest. New England started the season by steamrolling everything in their path, but it?s been many weeks now since they dominated a game, yet here they are favored by about a dozen points. Teams that are favored despite continually failing to cover the spread in victories, tend to continue disappointing their backers. Likewise, teams that continually win and/or cover as an underdog, tend to continue doing so as an underdog. Here, it?s quite likely that both trends will continue. A close game is one thing, but could the ?unthinkable? happen? Could the Patriots actually lose this game after going 18-0 this season to get here? We think it?s a strong possibility. New England was underwhelming in their 2 home playoff wins, barely able to put away a Chargers team with its 3 best offensive players severely hobbled. Speaking of hobbled, based upon what we?ve seen and heard in Arizona, it appears that Brady?s ankle is worse than he or the team is letting on. A sitting duck in the pocket will only make it a little bit easier for the Giants defensive line and blitzers to hit their mark. Meanwhile, New York is peaking right now and they will come in full of confidence. Knowing how close they came to beating New England 5 weeks ago and how they?ve continued to play since then, they can?t wait to take the field against the Patriots. We expect another very close game. The Patriots made several miracle escapes this season to keep their perfect record alive and it may take another miracle to pull this one out. The Giants should give them everything they can handle and we won?t be surprised to see the G-men pull off the upset PROJECTED FINAL SCORE:
NEW YORK GIANTS 30 NEW ENGLAND 28
New York Giants @ New England Patriots
NFL: VS
Game Date: 2/3/2008 | GameTime: 6:35 EST
Pick: NYG+12.5// FIVE UNITS -110
About this Pick:
The Patriots are 1 game away from the first 19-0 season in NFL history, with the Giants being the final hurdle in Super Bowl XLII on Sunday. The teams met just five weeks ago in the final game of the regular season where New York almost spoiled New England ?s plans for a perfect season. The Giants had a double-digit second-half lead before falling, 38-35, but easily covering the double-digit pointspread. The Patriots have a chance to make their mark in history with a victory here. After winning Super Bowls following the 2001, 2003, and 2004 season, they can become just the second team in NFL history to win four titles in a seven-year span. The Steelers and 49ers are currently the only franchises to win four Super Bowl titles in a single decade, another exclusive club New England could join with a victory. While the game is viewed by some as being the final and inevitable step toward New England 's coronation, a red-hot Giants team figures to have something to say about the matter. New York is in the Super Bowl for the first time in seven years thanks to consecutive playoff road wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys, and Packers, and the Giants' 10 straight wins away from home this season are an NFL record. New York QB Eli Manning has undergone a playoff revelation marked by sound decision- making and a minimal number of mistakes. Manning has completed 62% of his throws and not committed a turnover in New York 's three postseason games. Manning's outstanding run actually began with a strong outing against New England in Week 17, when he went 22-of-32 for 251 yards and tossed FOUR TD passes. Since an interception thrown by Manning late in that game, the Giants offense has gone 33 possessions and 194 plays without a turnover. New York's receiving corps possesses a strong blend of size, experience and youth in the threesome of Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Steve Smith. The 6-foot-5, 232-pound Burress can be a matchup nightmare for opposing defensive backs, as Green Bay 's Al Harris recently found out first-hand. Burress manhandled the Pro Bowl corner with an 11 -catch, 151-yard performance in the NFC Championship and also caught two scoring passes from Manning in the Giants' 38-35 loss to the Patriots in late December. The Giants have had to get by without the services of four-time Pro Bowler TE Jeremy Shockey since he broke his fibula in a mid-December loss to Washington; however, rookie Kevin Boss has proven to be a useful fill-in at the position, as evidenced by a four-catch, 50-yard effort with a touchdown in the first meeting with New England. The Giants "thunder-and-lightning" backfield of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw has been quite effective, especially late in the season, and will likely be the focus of the Patriots defense. New England has a talented defensive line, but ranked near the bottom of the league with 4.4 yards allowed per carry during the regular season. The Patriots also have a pair of highly-decorated linebackers in the middle of their four-man group, with former Pro Bowlers Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau occupying those places. Once regarded as an area of weakness and inexperience for the Patriots, the cornerback position is now well-equipped with Asante Samuel, Ellis Hobbs, and Randall Gay. The safety position is also an area of strength for New England, as starters Rodney Harrison, James Sanders, and top backup Eugene Wilson all bring a great deal of experience to the table. It wasn?t defense that carried the Patriots this season though, it was Tom Brady and the offense. MVP Brady comes off one of the great statistical seasons in NFL history, but struggled in the AFC Championship Game with 3 interceptions and has a gimpy right ankle. Brady was hurt in the third quarter of New England ?s win over the Chargers, but has had 2 weeks to heal up for Sunday?s game. Brady was 32-of-42 for 356 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants in Week 17 of the regular season. WR Randy Moss had a monster regular season but has disappeared in the playoffs. Moss has touched the football just three times in the post-season, catching two balls for 32 yards and carrying once for 14 yards. Moss had six catches for 100 yards and a pair of TDs against the Giants in the regular season finale, so the Giants will certainly try to keep him quiet in the Super Bowl. Slot receiver Wes Welker has 16 catches for 110 yards and two touchdowns in the playoffs thus far, and logged 11 grabs for 122 yards versus the G-Men last time out. Donte' Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney also both had their moments during the regular season. Tight end Benjamin Watson remains a trusted red- zone target for Brady. Running back Laurence Maroney has generated a major impact for the Patriots during the playoffs after taking a back seat to Brady and the passing game for much of the regular season. In his last five games overall, Maroney has averaged 110 rushing yards and scored seven touchdowns, although he was held to 46 yards on 19 carries against the Giants in Week 17. The Patriots rushed for 4.4 yards per carry during the regular season, but New England backs amassed just 48 yards on 22 combined totes against New York . New York recorded only one sack in that game, but they will certainly look to bring the pressure on Sunday. Ends Osi Umenyiora, Michael Strahan, and Justin Tuck have been wreaking havoc all year long, and the trio will be counted on to make Brady uncomfortable in the pocket for the Giants to have a chance to pull off the upset. While the pass rushers get most of the defensive attention for New York , the Giants did finish eighth in the NFL against the run allowing less than 98 ypg. The solid play of interior linemen Fred Robbins and Barry Cofield had much to do with that lofty ranking, but perhaps no player is more valuable to the Giants on defense than middle linebacker Antonio Pierce, the team's top tackler and a vocal presence in the huddle. No position on the Giants' defense has experienced as much flux as that of cornerback, as recent injuries to Sam Madison, Aaron Ross, and Kevin Dockery have really tested the team's depth. New York has been able to survive, however, because reserves Corey Webster and R.W. McQuarters have stepped up their play at a most crucial time. The pair have accounted for all five of the team's interceptions during the postseason, with Webster setting up Lawrence Tynes' game-winning field goal in the NFC Championship by picking off Brett Favre in overtime. Both Madison and Ross returned to action in the conference title game, while Dockery has a good chance of playing in the Super Bowl as well. This is great news considering the weapons New York will be facing in the game. In the special teams department, the teams are pretty even. Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes? 47-yard overtime field goal propelled New York to victory over Green Bay in the NFC Championship, but he also misfired on a pair of three-point tries. Tynes was 23-of- 27 on field goals during the regular season, with all four of those misses from inside 40 yards. Punter Jeff Feagles no longer boasts a powerful leg -- his 40.4 yard average was the second-lowest in the league -- but he's still quite adept at pinning in the opposition with his kicks. McQuarters averaged a mediocre 7.6 yards per punt return during the regular season, but did come up with a key 25-yard runback in New York's upset victory at Dallas in the Divisional round. The Patriots are fully aware of the capabilities of New York kickoff returner Domenik Hixon, as the young backup wideout had a 74-yard kick return touchdown when the two teams met in the regular-season finale. Hixon, claimed off waivers from Denver in October, has also performed well on returns this postseason, averaging 25.1 yards on 10 attempts. New York has been very strong on punt coverage this year, having limited the opposition to just 6.2 yards per return prior to the playoffs, good for 5th best in the NFL. The Pats' Stephen Gostkowski has attempted just two field goals in the 2007 postseason to date, missing on a 35-yarder and making one from the same distance in the Divisional Playoff win over Jacksonville. He was 21-of-24 during the regular season, including 3-of -5 from 40 yards-plus, and hit a season-high-tying 45-yarder during a 3-for-3 night against the Giants in Week 17. Gostkowski ranked among NFL leaders with 15 touchbacks during the regular season, but has just two in his last nine games. Punter Chris Hanson was the least-used regular punter in the NFL with just 44 kicks, and has booted the ball only five times in the playoffs. New England is likely to use either Welker or Faulk on punt returns, as both have appeared at the spot during the 2007 postseason. Welker was the Pats' primary return man during the regular season, averaging 10 yards per attempt with his high a 35-yarder against Indianapolis in November. The Patriots have used both Maroney and Hobbs on kickoff returns during the postseason, and former second-round draft pick Chad Jackson was also utilized in that capacity against the Jaguars in the Divisional round. Hobbs was the club's usual return choice during the regular season, averaging more than 26 yards per return and scoring on a 108-yard play against the Jets back in Week 1. Due to the proficiency of their offense, the Patriots have a great deal of experience covering kickoffs, and not as much on punts. New England allowed a modest 22.1 yards per kickoff return during the regular season, and the only touchdown surrendered by that coverage group was Hixon's return in Week 17. The Patriots have the edge in most of the personnel categories, but it's not a decisive edge on many counts. The Giants proved in December that they have the ability to make this a game, and with the way they are peaking, there?s no reason to believe they won?t make this game very competitive once again. New York is 6-0 ATS since Week 10 when playing with revenge and not favored by a TD or more, while the Patriots are on an 0-5 spread run vs. opponents playing with revenge. In fact, the Giants are on quite a spread run themselves, going 8-0 ATS when not favored by more than 4 points. New England is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games. New York is also 9-0 ATS away from their home stadium when not favored by more than 9 points, to go along with their 10 straight SU victories on the road. We also have numerous SITUATIONS pointing to at least a Giants cover here. For starters, it turns out that after a close Playoff victory, teams have been battle-tested and very competitive in their next Playoff game. Specifically, playoff underdogs of 3+ points off a Playoff SU win of less than 7 points allowing less than 28 points in their last game (not as a home underdog) are a strong 15-0 ATS since 1998, beating the spread by nearly 10 ppg on average. This SITUATION is already 2-0 in this year?s playoffs, active for both of our WINNERS in the AFC and NFC Conference Championship Games two weekends ago. After making it to the Super Bowl with an underdog victory, teams have continued to play very well in recent seasons. Specifically, Super Bowl teams off a Conference Championship underdog SU win in their last game are 5-0 ATS since 2000 vs. opponents not favored off a Conference Championship underdog SU win in their last game, blasting the spread by nearly 17 ppg on average. Another SITUATION shows a similar result for teams off a road win in their Conference Championship Game. It states: Play ON a Super Bowl team off a Conference Championship road underdog SU win in its last game and not a SemiFinal ATS loss before that vs. an opponent not off a Conference Championship road SU win as a bigger underdog in its last game. Going back to 1990, these teams are 7-0-1 ATS, crushing the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average. The Giants defense continues to be under-rated, as most fans have focused on Eli Manning?s solid play in the post-season, but defense wins championships : Play ON a Conference Championship/Super Bowl team off 2 playoff SU & ATS wins allowing less than 21 points in each of its last 2 games game vs. an opponent not favored off 2 playoff SU & ATS wins allowing less than 21 points in each of its last 2 games. Since 1989, these teams are 17-0-3 ATS, beating the spread by 2 TDs per game. Those numbers include New York ?s qualify SU & ATS win at Green Bay for the NFC title. If we isolate this exact same situation to Super Bowls, we find that it has gone without a loss all the way to back to 1983. Since then, qualifying Super Bowl teams are 16-0-2 ATS, destroying the spread by more than 17 ppg on average! Sixteen of the 18 teams also won the game outright by a similar margin. Finally, we come to a Super Bowl situation that we developed several seasons ago and has brought us a winner each time. It?s a very simple and logical trend, as the team that has done better spread-wise in the postseason has continued to cover the number. Specifically, Play ON a Super Bowl team (not a favorite of more than 13 points) with the better ATS record in the current postseason (underdog if ATS records identical with only wins; favorite if ATS records identical with any losses/pushes). Since 1987, these teams are 16-0-2 ATS, covering the spread by more than 13 ppg on average. In last year?s Super Bowl, we played on the favored Colts, who had gone 3-0 ATS in the postseason over the Bears who went just 1-1 ATS in the playoffs. Indianapolis won and covered the spread, as did the Steelers the year before. Like the Giants this post- season, Pittsburgh went 3-0 SU & ATS leading up to the Super Bowl, winning 3 games on the road, while the Seahawks won 2 playoff games at home, just as the Pats have done this season. It wasn?t pretty, but the favored Steelers got the SU & ATS win over Seattle . In the 2 Super Bowls before that, this SITUATION indicated a play AGAINST New England , and was right both times. The Patriots were TD favorites against the Panthers and Eagles, and won by just a FG each time. In fact, New England has won all 3 of their Super Bowls by 3 points. They are a tremendous football team and have been for several seasons now, but they simply do not blow out their opponents in the Super Bowl, even when playing the weaker NFC. Not even a bye week has been a big boost for New England in the playoffs. Under Belichik, the Pats are 0-4 ATS when favored in the playoffs off a week of rest. New England started the season by steamrolling everything in their path, but it?s been many weeks now since they dominated a game, yet here they are favored by about a dozen points. Teams that are favored despite continually failing to cover the spread in victories, tend to continue disappointing their backers. Likewise, teams that continually win and/or cover as an underdog, tend to continue doing so as an underdog. Here, it?s quite likely that both trends will continue. A close game is one thing, but could the ?unthinkable? happen? Could the Patriots actually lose this game after going 18-0 this season to get here? We think it?s a strong possibility. New England was underwhelming in their 2 home playoff wins, barely able to put away a Chargers team with its 3 best offensive players severely hobbled. Speaking of hobbled, based upon what we?ve seen and heard in Arizona, it appears that Brady?s ankle is worse than he or the team is letting on. A sitting duck in the pocket will only make it a little bit easier for the Giants defensive line and blitzers to hit their mark. Meanwhile, New York is peaking right now and they will come in full of confidence. Knowing how close they came to beating New England 5 weeks ago and how they?ve continued to play since then, they can?t wait to take the field against the Patriots. We expect another very close game. The Patriots made several miracle escapes this season to keep their perfect record alive and it may take another miracle to pull this one out. The Giants should give them everything they can handle and we won?t be surprised to see the G-men pull off the upset PROJECTED FINAL SCORE:
NEW YORK GIANTS 30 NEW ENGLAND 28
spritzer--
tko acc shocker gow.................wake
3 star.....................north carolina
tko...................mavs
cokin--
3 star.....................manhattan
under the hat.......................pistons\
feist--
platiunm................indi
5 star.............temple
tko acc shocker gow.................wake
3 star.....................north carolina
tko...................mavs
cokin--
3 star.....................manhattan
under the hat.......................pistons\
feist--
platiunm................indi
5 star.............temple
