This has to be historic... Kings are up 42-35 with a few mins left to go until the half. They are STILL 10 POINT UNDERDOGS with live wagering. Let?s hope they can build on that lead before half and we?ll have a big halftime play on the JAZZ
Tankapalooza ALERT
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
Memphis on the road is our best "TANK" candidate today, however the matchup vs BKN is not ideal, simply because they suck at basketball. BUT, remember, one team has their 1st round draft pick and the other does not. Brooklyn has every incentive win in front of their home crowd and not allow CLE, who owns their pick, a higher draft position. Memphis just won their last game, snapping a 19 game losing streak, so the chances they win two in a row are much worse than the ML indicates, especially when they are tied with the Suns at the moment for the fewest wins in the NBA. They will also probably be without Gasol tonight due to illness and even if he does play, it probably won't be for heavy minutes. I'll put this one in an open 2-team ML parlay that I'll probably close out tomorrow playing against ATL@UTA (if I can even get a ML on that).
2-Tm Parlay
BKN -260
[OPEN]
10x to win (x)
Detroit is in such a tailspin at the moment and the Kings are at home, so I'm ruling that one out today.
Knicks suck, but the Bulls are trying to suck harder, so that one is out. I can only look over there.
2-Tm Parlay
BKN -260
[OPEN]
10x to win (x)
Detroit is in such a tailspin at the moment and the Kings are at home, so I'm ruling that one out today.
Knicks suck, but the Bulls are trying to suck harder, so that one is out. I can only look over there.
Just a few notes on last night's BKN-MEM matchup. We knew Gasol was going to sit, but Evans as a late scratch was very telling. If there was any doubt going into the 4th quarter with the Grizz leading by 7 to start the final 12 minutes, that should have been squashed when seeing the lineup Bickerstaff put out there to start the 4th quarter. The lead quickly evaporated with the Nets going on a 10-3 run tying the game before Memphis' first timeout and then a 12-4 run before their 2nd timeout of the 4th quarter, with 4 minutes remaining in the game and the Nets up by 8. Game over. I don't want to dive too deep into the Net Ratings +/- ratings of the players used by the Grizzlies in the 4th, but suffice it to say that they were pretty much using the worst available grouping of players in the last stanza save for Brice Johnson, who can't seem to get on the court and has been back and forth from the G-League all year.
Tonight, I'll be closing out my two team parlay with the Pelicans, who play the tanking Mavs at home. The latest with the Mavs are they are now sitting Dennis Smith Jr for some unknown reason (a "not serious" ankle injury according to Carlisle). He is one of Dallas' worst rated players (the Mav's worst PG) in terms of On/Off +/- per 100 possessions. Unfortunately, this may mean more time for JJ Barea, but he is dealing with some kind of rib injury and may be limited, which leaves the door open for Yogi Ferrel to play plenty of minutes at PG, which is optimal in terms of a Dallas tank tonight. Additional injuries leave the Mavs with a pretty thin bench, which should make it easy for the playoff-contending Pelicans to take care of business at home tonight.
2-Tm Parlay
BKN -260
NOP -495
10x to win 6.4x
Tonight, I'll be closing out my two team parlay with the Pelicans, who play the tanking Mavs at home. The latest with the Mavs are they are now sitting Dennis Smith Jr for some unknown reason (a "not serious" ankle injury according to Carlisle). He is one of Dallas' worst rated players (the Mav's worst PG) in terms of On/Off +/- per 100 possessions. Unfortunately, this may mean more time for JJ Barea, but he is dealing with some kind of rib injury and may be limited, which leaves the door open for Yogi Ferrel to play plenty of minutes at PG, which is optimal in terms of a Dallas tank tonight. Additional injuries leave the Mavs with a pretty thin bench, which should make it easy for the playoff-contending Pelicans to take care of business at home tonight.
2-Tm Parlay
BKN -260
NOP -495
10x to win 6.4x
Some additional tank-a-thon notes...
Another prime tank candidate tonight is Atlanta and I would suggest hooking up the Pelicans and Jazz money lines for anyone who has the ability to parlay bigger ML odds together. If you are feeling really frisky, leave a spot open to fade the Grizzlies tomorrow, who are at Philadelphia. All together, you should expect to get between -275 and -285 odds on that 3-tm ML parlay. Remember, while laying those odds can seem intimidating, the percentages are not truly reflective of how these franchises are actually TYRING to lose.
The other tanking team playing tonight is the Suns, who are at home and facing the Pistons coming in on the 2nd leg of a back-two-back, so that situation is not optimal and one to avoid, if possible.
Additionally, while not technically a tanking team, we should keep an eye on Orlando, who have Aaron Gordon coming back tonight. If he has any kind minutes restriction, I will look to fade him on some props, if they become available.
Another prime tank candidate tonight is Atlanta and I would suggest hooking up the Pelicans and Jazz money lines for anyone who has the ability to parlay bigger ML odds together. If you are feeling really frisky, leave a spot open to fade the Grizzlies tomorrow, who are at Philadelphia. All together, you should expect to get between -275 and -285 odds on that 3-tm ML parlay. Remember, while laying those odds can seem intimidating, the percentages are not truly reflective of how these franchises are actually TYRING to lose.
The other tanking team playing tonight is the Suns, who are at home and facing the Pistons coming in on the 2nd leg of a back-two-back, so that situation is not optimal and one to avoid, if possible.
Additionally, while not technically a tanking team, we should keep an eye on Orlando, who have Aaron Gordon coming back tonight. If he has any kind minutes restriction, I will look to fade him on some props, if they become available.
- Mar 19, 2006
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What a bizarre finish in Utah. I can?t really explain it all now, but I have some observations watching the last 5-6 minutes that make this outcome seem more like an anomaly. Sorry if anyone was tailing on the Jazz and got burned. Again, they can?t ask the players to not try. All the management and coaches can do is put the players on the court in the least optimal situation to succeed. Then you need the other team to execute, which the Jazz did not do tonight. Allowing Schr?der to score 40+ with no adjustment from Snyder... just bizarre, but I have commented on this forum before about him being seemingly incapable of halftime adjustment. Just a strange, strange ending. I don?t think the Hawks upper management will be happy they won on the road tonight, although technically they didn?t move up or down in the lottery standings.
nice work DZ
Thanks, OS. I?m glad my parlay worked out, but I feel really bad that I suggested a parlay with a huge ML fav that went down also, though I was not able to play it myself. Not everybody can get MLs that big at their books. I?m starting to swing a bit the other way in terms of the point spread, though. Even though the intent and purpose of this thread is to purely play against the tankers straight up, we are just getting to a point in the season, and I?ve seen this repeatedly in years past, where the point spreads get out of hand with these tanking teams. It?s not like the players aren?t trying. Just have to pick the right spots to fade the losers and sometimes bet on them ATS when the situation dictates.
Just a note on fading four tanking teams today: Dallas, Memphis, Chicago & Phoenix...
a four team ML parlay on CHA, ORL, LAL & DET would have paid about +240.
I played a 3-teamer with CHA, ORL & DET with one open spot with plenty of options to fill it tomorrow. Not bragging or anything. I really just want to point out that even with a lower risk amount you can fade the tanking teams and get a decent payout. The early was a bit risky side, which is why I didn't post it, but I'm in great position tomorrow.
a four team ML parlay on CHA, ORL, LAL & DET would have paid about +240.
I played a 3-teamer with CHA, ORL & DET with one open spot with plenty of options to fill it tomorrow. Not bragging or anything. I really just want to point out that even with a lower risk amount you can fade the tanking teams and get a decent payout. The early was a bit risky side, which is why I didn't post it, but I'm in great position tomorrow.
BOS ML filling in the last leg of my parlay.
I don't think the Celtics are under any illusions that they can still catch the Raptors for the No. 1 overall seed. I'm sure at this point they are pretty much just concerned about health. But with a Cavs win earlier today, they can put a full 6 games between them in the standings and solidify their position at No. 2 in the East. Jaylen Brown will play today, while Morris, who scored 30 in POR in their last game, is out. On the other side of the equation, SAC has managed to win 3 of their last 5 and are .500 in their last 12 games. However, Randolph is sitting today due to "illness," which is telling. They cannot afford to win anyway, tied with the Bulls at the moment for the 8th worst record. I'm pretty confident that winning back to back games twice in the span of a week and a half is not in the cards for management, the coaches or the players.
On an additional note, the Knicks are most certainly NOT trying to win today, given their lineup changes today. Hawks are in the same boat as a prime tank candidate today in Houston. However, both of their lines are too high for me to even get an ML, so I'll be watching closely for an in game opportunity should we be lucky enough to have one turn up.
opcorn2
I don't think the Celtics are under any illusions that they can still catch the Raptors for the No. 1 overall seed. I'm sure at this point they are pretty much just concerned about health. But with a Cavs win earlier today, they can put a full 6 games between them in the standings and solidify their position at No. 2 in the East. Jaylen Brown will play today, while Morris, who scored 30 in POR in their last game, is out. On the other side of the equation, SAC has managed to win 3 of their last 5 and are .500 in their last 12 games. However, Randolph is sitting today due to "illness," which is telling. They cannot afford to win anyway, tied with the Bulls at the moment for the 8th worst record. I'm pretty confident that winning back to back games twice in the span of a week and a half is not in the cards for management, the coaches or the players.
On an additional note, the Knicks are most certainly NOT trying to win today, given their lineup changes today. Hawks are in the same boat as a prime tank candidate today in Houston. However, both of their lines are too high for me to even get an ML, so I'll be watching closely for an in game opportunity should we be lucky enough to have one turn up.
opcorn2Not an ideal scenario, but I'm feeling good today...
WAS -11.5 x BOS (to win SU) PARLAY 2.5x to win 6.5x
I just don't love that the Wiz have to win by 4... I'll see if a line on them to win SU like Boston pops up with in-running. Again, Hawks losing in HOU is the best tank bet of the day, but I'm rolling the dice with these.
WAS -11.5 x BOS (to win SU) PARLAY 2.5x to win 6.5x
I just don't love that the Wiz have to win by 4... I'll see if a line on them to win SU like Boston pops up with in-running. Again, Hawks losing in HOU is the best tank bet of the day, but I'm rolling the dice with these.
I was wrong on the Knicks. They are playing a semi-competent lineup in a close game in which the currently lead with a few minutes remaining. It remains to be seen who they come out with after this timeout for the final 2-1/2 minutes, but it sure seemed obvious when they had Mudiay, Lance Thomas and something called Luke Kornet playing to start the 4Q and for the majority of it.
