My entry for dumb question of the day...Are you on the chalk or the dogs here? :142smilie
The Big Dance.
- Thread starter NBA_Kid
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My entry for dumb question of the day...Are you on the chalk or the dogs here? :142smilie
I like the dogs.
It looks to easy for those favorites to cover.
Things can change leading up to game day though.
I'll have my usual daily thread.
I made 1 bet thus far.
Abilene Christian +8.5
Texas won the big 12 championship.
And they are giving this unknown school named Abilene Christian only 8.5 points?
That don't look right
Lol
I play lines 85% of the time
Good luck
Crap I misread the post and bet all the favorites... accidentally faded everything except Drake.... razor sharp here on Monday morning... I'm blaming last nights beer.... :mj07:
- Nov 30, 2003
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Will Gonzaga complete an unbeaten season?
This is the first NCAA tournament without Duke and Kentucky since 1976. That's also the last time we had a team cap off a perfect season with a national championship, as Bob Knight's Indiana Hoosiers finished 32-0. I don't know if members of that team celebrate like players from the 1972 Miami Dolphins -- the last NFL team to go undefeated -- when the final unbeaten team loses each season, but if so, they've had to wait well into March a few times in recent years.
That's the case this year, as Gonzaga -- the No. 1 overall seed -- enters the NCAA tournament 26-0. Since that Indiana team sealed the deal, this is the fifth time a team has entered the tourney without a loss. Obviously, none of the previous four won the title, but three of them made it to the Final Four. Only Larry Bird and his Indiana State Sycamores came up just one win short when they lost to Magic Johnson and Michigan State in 1979.
This is the first NCAA tournament without Duke and Kentucky since 1976. That's also the last time we had a team cap off a perfect season with a national championship, as Bob Knight's Indiana Hoosiers finished 32-0. I don't know if members of that team celebrate like players from the 1972 Miami Dolphins -- the last NFL team to go undefeated -- when the final unbeaten team loses each season, but if so, they've had to wait well into March a few times in recent years.
That's the case this year, as Gonzaga -- the No. 1 overall seed -- enters the NCAA tournament 26-0. Since that Indiana team sealed the deal, this is the fifth time a team has entered the tourney without a loss. Obviously, none of the previous four won the title, but three of them made it to the Final Four. Only Larry Bird and his Indiana State Sycamores came up just one win short when they lost to Magic Johnson and Michigan State in 1979.
Curse of the overall No. 1 seed?
As if Gonzaga doesn't have enough history working against it ... it has been six years since the last time the No. 1 overall seed reached the Final Four and eight years since it won the championship.
In 2019, Duke survived UCF in the second round and Virginia Tech in the Sweet 16 before losing to Michigan State in the Elite Eight. In the two prior years, Virginia became the first No. 1 to lose to a 16-seed and Villanova lost in the second round.
In the 16 years the selection committee has announced an overall No. 1 seed, that team has failed to make it past the first weekend more often (four times) than it has won the championship (three times).
As if Gonzaga doesn't have enough history working against it ... it has been six years since the last time the No. 1 overall seed reached the Final Four and eight years since it won the championship.
In 2019, Duke survived UCF in the second round and Virginia Tech in the Sweet 16 before losing to Michigan State in the Elite Eight. In the two prior years, Virginia became the first No. 1 to lose to a 16-seed and Villanova lost in the second round.
In the 16 years the selection committee has announced an overall No. 1 seed, that team has failed to make it past the first weekend more often (four times) than it has won the championship (three times).
Why history says Alabama won't reach the Final Four.
If you're looking for a high seed to bounce before we get too deep into the madness, there is some historical data that points in the direction of a particular team: No. 2 seed Alabama.
Let's be clear, this note has nothing to do with Nate Oats or the talented squad he coaches; the Crimson Tide is dangerous and among the most fun-to-watch teams in this year's Big Dance. This is simply about how they were perceived entering the season.
Alabama is the only team in this year's tournament field to be a top-two seed and reside in the top 10 of the AP poll after entering the season unranked.
None of the 32 teams to fit this profile in the modern tournament era have reached the Final Four, and 56% of them didn't survive the first two rounds. Virginia's first-round loss to 16th-seeded UMBC in 2018 came under these circumstances, as the most memorable example.
Specifically, the struggles of No. 2 seeds in this category are quite alarming, as exactly two-thirds of them (14 of 21) didn't make it out of the first weekend.
Last year, Dayton and San Diego State would have met this criteria, but sadly, we'll never know how things would have played out.
If you're looking for a high seed to bounce before we get too deep into the madness, there is some historical data that points in the direction of a particular team: No. 2 seed Alabama.
Let's be clear, this note has nothing to do with Nate Oats or the talented squad he coaches; the Crimson Tide is dangerous and among the most fun-to-watch teams in this year's Big Dance. This is simply about how they were perceived entering the season.
Alabama is the only team in this year's tournament field to be a top-two seed and reside in the top 10 of the AP poll after entering the season unranked.
None of the 32 teams to fit this profile in the modern tournament era have reached the Final Four, and 56% of them didn't survive the first two rounds. Virginia's first-round loss to 16th-seeded UMBC in 2018 came under these circumstances, as the most memorable example.
Specifically, the struggles of No. 2 seeds in this category are quite alarming, as exactly two-thirds of them (14 of 21) didn't make it out of the first weekend.
Last year, Dayton and San Diego State would have met this criteria, but sadly, we'll never know how things would have played out.
Big Ten in uncharted territory.
The Big Ten received a pair of No. 1 seeds (Illinois, Michigan) and a pair of No. 2 seeds (Ohio State, Iowa) this year. It is the first time a conference has earned four top-two seeds in a single NCAA tournament. Seven previous times a conference has grabbed three top-two seeds, but the eventual champion came from that conference in only three of those seven instances (all by the ACC).
The Big Ten received a pair of No. 1 seeds (Illinois, Michigan) and a pair of No. 2 seeds (Ohio State, Iowa) this year. It is the first time a conference has earned four top-two seeds in a single NCAA tournament. Seven previous times a conference has grabbed three top-two seeds, but the eventual champion came from that conference in only three of those seven instances (all by the ACC).
Defending champions have failed to last long.
There hasn't been a repeat champion since Florida in 2006-07. But forget repeating; it's been hard enough for defending champs to win more than a game or two.
Since Florida's repeat 14 years ago, no defending champion has advanced past the Sweet 16. In each of the past three tournaments, they have been eliminated in the second round (No. 6 seed Villanova in 2019, No. 2 seed North Carolina in 2018 and No. 1 seed Villanova in 2017). In fairness to Virginia, it is defending a title it won two years ago, and the top five scorers on that 2019 team are gone. The Cavaliers are a No. 4 seed in the West region this year.
There hasn't been a repeat champion since Florida in 2006-07. But forget repeating; it's been hard enough for defending champs to win more than a game or two.
Since Florida's repeat 14 years ago, no defending champion has advanced past the Sweet 16. In each of the past three tournaments, they have been eliminated in the second round (No. 6 seed Villanova in 2019, No. 2 seed North Carolina in 2018 and No. 1 seed Villanova in 2017). In fairness to Virginia, it is defending a title it won two years ago, and the top five scorers on that 2019 team are gone. The Cavaliers are a No. 4 seed in the West region this year.
At-large teams with losing conference records.
Maryland and Michigan State, both of which were 9-11 in Big Ten play, received at-large bids this year. They were the only two teams with losing conference records to do so. Each year, there is debate about whether these teams deserve to make the field, but for what it's worth, they haven't been automatic one-and-dones.
Of the 45 previous teams with losing conference records to get at-large bids since 1985, more than half (23) won a first-round game. However, only six of them won again to reach the Sweet 16. In the modern era, the only team with a sub-.500 conference mark to advance any further was LSU in 1987, when the Tigers reached the Elite Eight as a 10-seed.
Of the past 20 such teams, Syracuse in 2018 is the only one to win more than one game (the Orange actually won three games to reach the Sweet 16, since they started their journey in the First Four).
Maryland and Michigan State, both of which were 9-11 in Big Ten play, received at-large bids this year. They were the only two teams with losing conference records to do so. Each year, there is debate about whether these teams deserve to make the field, but for what it's worth, they haven't been automatic one-and-dones.
Of the 45 previous teams with losing conference records to get at-large bids since 1985, more than half (23) won a first-round game. However, only six of them won again to reach the Sweet 16. In the modern era, the only team with a sub-.500 conference mark to advance any further was LSU in 1987, when the Tigers reached the Elite Eight as a 10-seed.
Of the past 20 such teams, Syracuse in 2018 is the only one to win more than one game (the Orange actually won three games to reach the Sweet 16, since they started their journey in the First Four).
Losing your first conference tournament game = no national title.
No team has ever won a national championship after losing its first game in the conference tournament. Prior to the last tournament that was held in 2019, a trio of teams that landed No. 3 seeds lost their conference tourney opener (LSU, Texas Tech and Purdue). All three won multiple games in the tournament, and Texas Tech nearly put an end to this trend before falling short in the championship game in overtime against Virginia. This year, West Virginia (3) and Purdue (4) are the only top-four seeds that lost their first conference tournament game.
No team has ever won a national championship after losing its first game in the conference tournament. Prior to the last tournament that was held in 2019, a trio of teams that landed No. 3 seeds lost their conference tourney opener (LSU, Texas Tech and Purdue). All three won multiple games in the tournament, and Texas Tech nearly put an end to this trend before falling short in the championship game in overtime against Virginia. This year, West Virginia (3) and Purdue (4) are the only top-four seeds that lost their first conference tournament game.
Don't discount teams that play in the First Four.
All good things must come to an end. And in 2019, a fun trend involving the winners from the First Four did just that.
The 2019 tournament marked the first time since the inception of the First Four in 2011 that none of the final four at-large teams to make the tournament field advanced to the round of 32. Belmont looked like it would be the team to keep the streak alive, but the Bruins faltered down the stretch and allowed Maryland to come back to win their first-round matchup by two points in Jacksonville.
In the previous eight years, four First Four participants went on to reach the second round before being eliminated, three more advanced to the Sweet 16, and VCU shocked everyone by going from First Four to Final Four in 2011.
So, while most bracket pools don't count the First Four games, it's still worth paying attention to them. This year's final four at-large teams to make the field were Wichita State, Drake, Michigan State and UCLA.
All good things must come to an end. And in 2019, a fun trend involving the winners from the First Four did just that.
The 2019 tournament marked the first time since the inception of the First Four in 2011 that none of the final four at-large teams to make the tournament field advanced to the round of 32. Belmont looked like it would be the team to keep the streak alive, but the Bruins faltered down the stretch and allowed Maryland to come back to win their first-round matchup by two points in Jacksonville.
In the previous eight years, four First Four participants went on to reach the second round before being eliminated, three more advanced to the Sweet 16, and VCU shocked everyone by going from First Four to Final Four in 2011.
So, while most bracket pools don't count the First Four games, it's still worth paying attention to them. This year's final four at-large teams to make the field were Wichita State, Drake, Michigan State and UCLA.
Expect at least one top-four seed to lose in the first round.
Just about every year, at least one top-four seed loses its first game. It's difficult to pick the right one(s), but history says it's very likely to happen. Only once in the past 12 tournaments have the top four seeds in each region survived the first round, and just five times in the past 35 tourneys (1994, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2017).
Just about every year, at least one top-four seed loses its first game. It's difficult to pick the right one(s), but history says it's very likely to happen. Only once in the past 12 tournaments have the top four seeds in each region survived the first round, and just five times in the past 35 tourneys (1994, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2017).
History of first-round matchups.
Below are seed-versus-seed facts for each of the first-round matchups, including recent trends that have developed.
1 vs.16
Who knows if or when it will happen again, but we'll always have UMBC from 2018.
In 2019, we went back to the No. 1 seeds sweeping the 16s, by an average margin of 22.8 points. That means the No. 1s are 139-1 all time in this matchup and, as you would expect, games haven't been close very often.
In the past five tournaments, all 20 matchups have been decided by 14 points or more (including UMBC's amazing 20-point shocker against Virginia). Dating back to 1998, only four of 88 matchups have been decided by single digits, all of which came in a three-year span (2012-14).
Below are seed-versus-seed facts for each of the first-round matchups, including recent trends that have developed.
1 vs.16
Who knows if or when it will happen again, but we'll always have UMBC from 2018.
In 2019, we went back to the No. 1 seeds sweeping the 16s, by an average margin of 22.8 points. That means the No. 1s are 139-1 all time in this matchup and, as you would expect, games haven't been close very often.
In the past five tournaments, all 20 matchups have been decided by 14 points or more (including UMBC's amazing 20-point shocker against Virginia). Dating back to 1998, only four of 88 matchups have been decided by single digits, all of which came in a three-year span (2012-14).
2 vs.15
Only eight times in history has a No. 15 seed beaten a 2-seed, and three of those wins came in 2012 and 2013. In the six tournaments since, No. 2 seeds are 23-1, with the only upset being Middle Tennessee over Michigan State in 2016. Most games haven't been close, either, as 21 of those 23 wins by No. 2s came by double figures. In 2019, the Tennessee-Colgate game, which the Vols won by 7, was the closest 2/15 game since 2012.
Of the eight No. 15s to win a game, seven finished in the top two in their conference standings. The only exception was Santa Clara in 1993, which finished third in the West Coast Conference.
Among this year's 15-seeds, three of the four finished the regular season in the top two of their conference (including ties), in terms of winning percentage: Grand Canyon and Cleveland State won or shared their regular-season titles, while Iona tied for the second-best win percentage in the MAAC. The only No. 15 seed that didn't is Oral Roberts, which finished fourth in the Summit League.
Only eight times in history has a No. 15 seed beaten a 2-seed, and three of those wins came in 2012 and 2013. In the six tournaments since, No. 2 seeds are 23-1, with the only upset being Middle Tennessee over Michigan State in 2016. Most games haven't been close, either, as 21 of those 23 wins by No. 2s came by double figures. In 2019, the Tennessee-Colgate game, which the Vols won by 7, was the closest 2/15 game since 2012.
Of the eight No. 15s to win a game, seven finished in the top two in their conference standings. The only exception was Santa Clara in 1993, which finished third in the West Coast Conference.
Among this year's 15-seeds, three of the four finished the regular season in the top two of their conference (including ties), in terms of winning percentage: Grand Canyon and Cleveland State won or shared their regular-season titles, while Iona tied for the second-best win percentage in the MAAC. The only No. 15 seed that didn't is Oral Roberts, which finished fourth in the Summit League.
3 vs.14
No. 3 seeds have won 85% of meetings with No. 14 seeds and have swept all four matchups in each of the past three tourneys. It's only the third time No. 14 seeds have failed to win a game in three straight tournaments (also 2007-09 and 2000-04).
But these games are not all blowouts. In fact, at least one 3/14 matchup has been decided by single digits in each of the past 10 tournaments. In 2019, LSU held off an upset bid by Yale to win by five in Jacksonville.
The past three No. 3s to lose in the first round all came from the Big 12: West Virginia (2016), Baylor (2015) and Iowa State (2015). Guess what? There are not one, not two, but three Big 12 teams as No. 3 seeds this year: Kansas, Texas and West Virginia.
No. 3 seeds have won 85% of meetings with No. 14 seeds and have swept all four matchups in each of the past three tourneys. It's only the third time No. 14 seeds have failed to win a game in three straight tournaments (also 2007-09 and 2000-04).
But these games are not all blowouts. In fact, at least one 3/14 matchup has been decided by single digits in each of the past 10 tournaments. In 2019, LSU held off an upset bid by Yale to win by five in Jacksonville.
The past three No. 3s to lose in the first round all came from the Big 12: West Virginia (2016), Baylor (2015) and Iowa State (2015). Guess what? There are not one, not two, but three Big 12 teams as No. 3 seeds this year: Kansas, Texas and West Virginia.
4 vs.13
No. 4s have won 79% of these matchups, but the games are generally much more competitive than that rate would suggest. In the past 10 tournaments, more than half of the meetings were decided by single digits. And in the past two tourneys, five of the eight matchups were single-digit affairs. One of the double-digit outcomes was a 21-point win by a 13-seed (Buffalo over Arizona in 2018).
It's reasonable to pick one of these upsets in your bracket, as a No. 13 seed has won at least one game in 25 of 35 years.
No. 4s have won 79% of these matchups, but the games are generally much more competitive than that rate would suggest. In the past 10 tournaments, more than half of the meetings were decided by single digits. And in the past two tourneys, five of the eight matchups were single-digit affairs. One of the double-digit outcomes was a 21-point win by a 13-seed (Buffalo over Arizona in 2018).
It's reasonable to pick one of these upsets in your bracket, as a No. 13 seed has won at least one game in 25 of 35 years.
5 vs.12
Many bracket-filler-outers are a bit shy about picking against any of the top four seeds, so this is where upset discussions often begin. While No. 5s have won 64% of the time overall, results in this matchup have been all over the place in recent years.
The 2019 tournament marked the third time in the past seven tourneys that No. 12 seeds won three of the four meetings. In that same seven-year span, No. 5s have swept the four matchups twice, though.
Many bracket-filler-outers are a bit shy about picking against any of the top four seeds, so this is where upset discussions often begin. While No. 5s have won 64% of the time overall, results in this matchup have been all over the place in recent years.
The 2019 tournament marked the third time in the past seven tourneys that No. 12 seeds won three of the four meetings. In that same seven-year span, No. 5s have swept the four matchups twice, though.
