The Big Dance.

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16-seeds

Appalachian State Mountaineers

When Dustin Kerns' squad was 13-11 overall and 7-8 in league play at the end of the regular season, a conference tournament championship seemed unlikely. But March doesn't always make sense. Standout Michael Almonacy averaged 21.7 PPG and went 20-for-39 from 3 as the Mountaineers rallied to win the Sun Belt tournament championship, knocking off top seeds Georgia State and Texas State.

Drexel Dragons

T.J. Bickerstaff, the grandson of former NBA head coach Bernie Bickerstaff and the nephew of Cleveland Cavaliers head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, is one of four players on this roster averaging double figures. Gotta keep a hand in the Dragons' faces whenever they're on the perimeter -- the CAA champs have made 41 of their 79 3-point attempts (52%) during a current four-game winning streak.

Hartford Hawks

On Saturday, an energized John Gallagher essentially cut a wrestling promo on ESPN Radio after leading his team to an America East Conference tournament championship and its first NCAA tournament appearance. He said his team's strength is its tenacity. "We are shockingly physical," Gallagher said. The numbers back that claim. No America East team forced more turnovers per possession than Gallagher's crew. The Hawks are led by 6-4 guard Austin Williams, who has averaged 19.6 PPG during his team's five-game winning streak.

Mount Saint Mary's Mountaineers

The Mountaineers' best chance to pull off an upset? Protecting the rim the way they did throughout the season. Opponents made just 39.7% of their shots when the Mount played man, per Synergy Sports data. And anything seems possible with star Damian Chong Qui (15.1 PPG, 5.5 APG, 4.2 RPG), whose mother was murdered when he was 4 years old and whose father was paralyzed in a shooting, on the floor. His talent and perseverance carried this team to the Northeast Conference tournament title.

Norfolk State Spartans

Norfolk State returns to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2012, when it upset 2-seed Missouri in the first round. That version of the squad was ranked slightly higher by KenPom (183rd versus 200th), but this team has made 37.4% of its attempts from the 3-point line versus 31.5% for the 2011-12 group. Still, the 2011-12 team had Kyle O'Quinn, who played eight seasons in the NBA. But Devante Carter, the team's top scorer this season, is averaging 15.5 PPG -- almost identical to Quinn's output (15.9 PPG) nine years ago.

Texas Southern Tigers

Johnny Jones has lived a few lives in his coaching career. He has had the awkward experience of an interim role at Memphis, success at North Texas, the feeling of falling short of expectations with Ben Simmons on his roster at LSU and fresh excitement at Texas Southern, which has lost just one of its past 15 games. Seven of those victories include double-digit margins for the Southwestern Athletic Conference tournament champion. Michael Weathers (16.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.6 APG, 2.2 SPG) is a 6-3 guard who finished with 13 points in a nonconference loss to Oklahoma State, his former school.

 

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Look out for an 11-seed to escape the first weekend.

In 2019, for just the second time in the past 10 tournaments, none of the No. 11 seeds reached the Sweet 16, and only one won a first-round game. Despite that, the 11-seeds remain the most accomplished of the Cinderellas since the First Four began in 2011.
No. 12s used to be the upset darlings picked to win a couple of games, but no more. In the First Four era, No. 11 seeds have made 10 Sweet 16 appearances, the same number as all other double-digit seeds combined.
And once they've gotten there, No. 11s have had a reasonable amount of success. No. 12s have not. It has almost everything to do with the opposition, though.
No. 11 seeds are 8-14 overall in Sweet 16 games, but just 2-13 when facing No. 2 seeds (they are 4-0 vs. No. 7s and 2-1 against No. 10s). Meanwhile, No. 12 seeds are 1-20 in Sweet 16 contests, with all 20 losses coming against No. 1 seeds (the only win coming in 2002 when Missouri beat No. 8 seed UCLA).

 

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Deep-sixed!

The picture has been bleak for No. 6 seeds for quite a while now. For the first time ever, zero No. 6 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 in three consecutive tournaments. Some of it has to do with the success of the No. 11s, as mentioned above, but in 2019 three of the four No. 6 seeds won in the first round, only to fall to a No. 3 seed in round 2. Prior to this drought, only once before had No. 6s been absent from the Sweet 16 in back-to-back years (2008-09).
With regard to the Elite Eight, only three 6-seeds have gotten there in the past 18 tournaments, and just one of them defeated a better seed in the Sweet 16 to get there. The only seeds with fewer Elite Eight appearances since 2002 are the 12s through 16s, which have combined for one Elite Eight trip ever. Yeah, it's been that bad.

This year's No. 6s are USC, BYU, Texas Tech and San Diego State.

 

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Final Four

How many No. 1 seeds usually make the Final Four?

The percentage play is to pick one or two. That's been the case in 28 of the past 35 tournaments (80%).
At least one No. 1 seed has reached the Final Four eight straight tourneys and in 12 of the past 13. Multiple 1-seeds have made the Final Four just three times in the past 10 years.
Three No. 1 seeds made it in 2015, but that's the only time that's occurred since 2000. And only once in the past 13 tourneys has there been a Final Four without a No. 1 seed present (2011).
In that 2011 tournament, no 1- or 2-seeds made it for the first time. As you go through your bracket, it may be hard to eliminate a No. 1 seed, but remember that history shows it's more likely that no top seeds reach the Final Four than all four of them do. The only time all four No. 1s got there was 13 years ago.

Here is a breakdown of how many No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four since 1985:

None -- 2 times
One -- 15 times
Two -- 13 times
Three -- 4 times
Four -- 1 time

 

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Expect one lower-seeded Final Four participant.

The remarkable streak of six straight NCAA tournaments in which at least one team seeded seventh or worse reached the Final Four came to an end in 2019.
But we've still had at least one Final Four participant seeded fifth or worse in each of the past 10 tournaments, thanks to Auburn two years ago. The Tigers were the first No. 5 seed to make the national semis since 2010.
So take a good, hard look at the bracket to see if any lower seed catches your eye as Final Four material. Or decide that all good things must come to an end.


Final Four teams
Seeded 5th or worse, Since 2010

2019 Auburn 5
2018 Loyola Chicago 11
2017 South Carolina 7
2016 Syracuse 10
2015 Michigan State 7
2014 Kentucky 8
2014 UConn* 7
2013 Wichita State 9
2011 VCU 11
2011 Butler 8
2010 Butler 5
2010 Michigan State 5
*Won championship

 

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Miscellaneous tidbits

? For just the second time, we have had three consecutive Final Fours involving at least one No. 3 seed. It also happened from 1989 to 1991.

? The last Final Four appearance by a No. 4 seed came in 2013, when both Michigan and Syracuse did it and squared off in the national semis.

? Among the seeds that have reached the Final Four at least once -- No. 11 seed or better -- the distinction for the longest drought by far goes to No. 6 seeds. Only three 6-seeds have made it to the Final Four, and it has been nearly three decades since the last time it happened (Michigan in 1992, Kansas in 1988 and Providence in 1987).

? No. 11 seeds have actually made more Final Four trips (four) than 6, 7, 9 and 10 seeds in the modern tournament era.

 

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Championship game

Since seeding began in 1979, the top three seeds have accounted for 68 of the 82 title game appearances, and no other seed has been there more than four times (interestingly, by the No. 8s). So, while we discussed Cinderellas reaching the Final Four, the championship game participants have come from the top three seed lines 83% of the time.

The cream rises to the top

Upsets are exciting (and plentiful) in March, but when it's time to pick a winner in your bracket, No. 1s have been the way to go. Ten of the past 13 champs have been top seeds, and no other seed has more than one title in that span.

Champions rarely come from low-bid conferences

In the modern tournament era, only two national champions came from a conference that received fewer than four bids ... and it's been more than 30 years since it's happened. Louisville won in 1986 from the three-bid Metro Conference, and the highly entertaining UNLV Runnin' Rebels won it all in 1990 out of the Big West Conference, which also received three bids.
No. 1 seed Gonzaga (West Coast Conference) and No. 2 seed Houston (American Athletic Conference) are the two obvious teams capable of doing it this year, as their conferences received just two bids each. The last champion to come from a conference that got fewer than three bids was Michigan State (Big Ten) in 1979, when there were just 40 teams in the field.

 

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5-seeds still seeking elusive first title

No. 5 seeds are the only top-eight seed yet to win a championship. The only three 5-seeds to reach the title game -- Butler (2010), Indiana (2002) and Florida (2000) -- all lost to No. 1 seeds. This year's 5-seeds are Creighton, Colorado, Villanova and Tennessee.

 

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Conferences

NOTE: References are since 1985, unless otherwise noted

Below are notes on each of the 31 participating conferences, as it pertains to tournament success or lack thereof. The Ivy League canceled winter sports for the 2020-21 season and we will miss its representative, at the very least, giving a higher seed all it can handle (and then some) later this week.

 

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The America East has just four first-round wins in modern tournament history, one in each of the past four decades. While the conference will long be known for UMBC slaying the giant named No. 1 Virginia in 2018, it has often been competitive against other high seeds in recent years. Vermont kept things close against a pair of 4-seeds, Florida State in 2019 and Purdue in 2017, and Albany refused to go away easily three years in a row from 2013 to 2015 against No. 2 Duke, No. 1 Florida and No. 3 Oklahoma. This year, Hartford makes its NCAA tournament debut as a No. 16 seed, with hopes of following the UMBC blueprint against Baylor.




Success has been hard to come by for American Athletic Conference teams in recent years. In 2019, Houston became the first conference team to reach the Sweet 16 since the league's first season back in 2014. UCF nearly joined them as a No. 9 seed, but fell short of upsetting top-seeded Duke when Aubrey Dawkins' tip-in attempt rolled off the rim. In the past five tourneys, AAC teams are 7-6 in the first round, but just 1-6 in the second round. In the past two tournaments, all three second-round defeats have come by one or two points. This year, it's No. 2 seed Houston and 11th-seeded Wichita State, which will play in the First Four. American teams are 0-2 in the First Four.

Much like the AAC above, the Atlantic 10 has also been going through quite a rough patch, and that was exacerbated by last year's NCAA tournament being canceled when the conference had a legitimate national title threat in Dayton.

? The last time an A-10 team reached the Sweet 16 was seven years ago, the longest dry spell in conference history. It's only fair to note that the A-10's highest seed in this span was a No. 7.

? Just once in the past five tournaments has the conference won multiple games in the first round (2016).

? 2019 marked the first time in conference history with zero NCAA tournament wins in a year in which it received multiple bids. The only three other times the A-10 went winless (1977, 1990, 2005), it had just one representative.

 

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Much like the AAC above, the Atlantic 10 has also been going through quite a rough patch, and that was exacerbated by last year's NCAA tournament being canceled when the conference had a legitimate national title threat in Dayton.

? The last time an A-10 team reached the Sweet 16 was seven years ago, the longest dry spell in conference history. It's only fair to note that the A-10's highest seed in this span was a No. 7.

? Just once in the past five tournaments has the conference won multiple games in the first round (2016).

? 2019 marked the first time in conference history with zero NCAA tournament wins in a year in which it received multiple bids. The only three other times the A-10 went winless (1977, 1990, 2005), it had just one representative.

While the A-10 got just two bids for the second straight tournament after getting three or more in the previous 11 -- which makes it more challenging to snap the conference's Sweet 16 drought -- don't count out 10th-seeded VCU. After all, the past four Sweet 16 teams from the A-10 have been double-digit seeds -- one each in four straight years from 2011 to 2014. In the modern tournament era, no conference has more wins from teams seeded 10th or worse, not including First Four games.

 

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The following two things are true: 1.) It's a down year for the ACC. 2.) The ACC has seven teams in the field of 68. Let's explain No. 1, in case you're not sure why.

This is the first time the league has no teams seeded better than fourth (Virginia, Florida State are No. 4s this year). Heck, it's only the second time in 42 years of seeding the conference doesn't have at least one top-two seed (1990 is the other time). That's quite a contrast from the last time we had an NCAA tournament in 2019, when the ACC had three No. 1 seeds and five teams reached the Sweet 16.

The ACC has the most national championships in the modern era (11), so even in a year with no clear title threat, it's hard not to expect someone to get hot. Here is how strong the conference has been through the years:

? At least one Sweet 16 team in all 35 years
? At least one Elite Eight team in 32 of 35 years (multiple teams in four of past five)
? At least one Final Four team in 24 of 35 years
? At least one team in the title game in 17 of 35 years

All of these represent the best of any conference, but it's been a little more of a roller coaster of sorts in recent years. For example, the ACC has had multiple Sweet 16 teams in 30 of 35 years -- including an impressive average of 4.2 over the past five tourneys -- but all five years in which it had just one representative have come since 2007.

One oddity: In the past 25 tournaments, only one ACC team seeded worse than No. 1 reached the title game (No. 3 Georgia Tech in 2004). And, in case you're wondering, 25 non-No. 1 seeds have played for the championship in this span.

 

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Atlantic Sun teams have acquitted themselves quite well recently. Many of you may remember 14th-seeded Mercer's upset of Duke in 2014 and FGCU becoming the first No. 15 seed to reach the Sweet 16 in 2013. And in 2019, 12th-seeded Liberty took advantage of the best seed for an ASUN team since 2001 and knocked off Mississippi State in the first round. The Flames are back again, as a No. 13 seed, and are a threat to cause bracket unrest once again.

 

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It's surprising the Big 12 has just one championship in its history, especially considering the conference has had at least one top-two seed in 21 of those 23 tournaments.

Make that 22 of 24, as Baylor finds itself on the top line this year. The Bears are the first Big 12 team not named Kansas to grab a No. 1 since 2003, which is the only time the Big 12 had multiple teams as No. 1s (Oklahoma and Texas). That year, both Oklahoma (Elite Eight) and Texas (Final Four) were eliminated by Carmelo Anthony and No. 3-seeded Syracuse, the eventual national champion.

One encouraging sign for the conference centers around Sweet 16 success the past two tourneys. In those two years, Big 12 teams are 4-1 in the Sweet 16, and only one of those five teams was a top-two seed. That's much better than the 3-8 mark in the same round the five years prior.

If you're looking for the real bugaboo for the conference, though, the Elite Eight is where it's at (or not at). In a 12-year span from 2006 to 2017, the league was a paltry 3-11 in Elite Eight games. So while the 2-2 mark the past two tournaments may not seem like much, it's progress. In fact, the Big 12 has had a team reach the Final Four in consecutive tournaments for the first time since five teams got there in a three-year span from 2002 to 2004. It's hard to believe that half of the conference's 10 Final Four appearances came in those three years.

In 2019, Texas Tech carried the conference on its back as a No. 3 seed, reaching the championship before losing in overtime. This is the seventh straight tourney in which the Big 12 has received at least six bids and more is expected from the league, as five teams earned top-four seeds. Will it deliver?

 

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No major conference has been more reliant on one school in the past handful of years than the Big East. Dating back to the 2013-14 season, which was the first after the conference's FBS members split for the ACC or newly created American Athletic Conference, almost all of the weight of tournament expectation has fallen on Villanova ... for better or worse.

In the past six tournaments, the Big East earned 32 total bids, 10 of which were top-four seeds. However, the league has done very little with those quality seeds, and the best way to encapsulate it is by making it a game of "Villanova vs. everyone else."
Villanova's tourney results have been feast or famine. It has been a top-two seed in five of those six years, and while the Wildcats won two national titles, they lost in the second round in each of the other four years. The rest of the conference has combined for the same number of wins as Villanova in this span and has earned just three trips to the Sweet 16. And to make matters worse, this group of "others" earned a top-three seed on three occasions and lost in the second round each time. So, yeah, underachieving has been a theme, which is so hard to say for a conference with two of the past four championships.

The conference received four bids for the second straight tourney. That's the first time the Big East has gotten four or fewer bids in consecutive tournaments in the modern era. Villanova and Creighton are the Big East's highest seeds (No. 5). With co-Big East Player of the Year Collin Gillespie (knee) out for the season, it may be unfair to ask the Villanova to carry the conference this year. Will Creighton and UConn step up?

 

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The Big Sky is just 3-35 in the NCAA tournament since 1985 and has just one win this century (12th-seeded Montana over Nevada in 2006). The conference's representative has scored 61 or fewer points in 11 of its 13 first-round games since that win in 2006. This year, Eastern Washington is a No. 14 seed, the 14th straight time the conference has earned a No. 13 seed or worse.


The Big South has just one first-round win in its history. That came in 2007 when 11th-seeded Winthrop dropped Notre Dame. That was the only time the conference got a seed better than 13th ... until this year. Winthrop, which is 23-1 this season, is a No. 12 seed this time around, and they'll face Villanova on Friday.

 

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In 2019, the Big Ten earned a conference-record eight bids. This year, it outdid itself and received nine bids. As the league hopes to put an end to its 20-year championship drought, it doesn't hurt to have four of the top eight overall seeds in the field.
Michigan and Illinois are both No. 1s, just the third time in the modern era the Big Ten has had two teams on the 1-line (Michigan and Indiana in 1993; Michigan State and Illinois in 2001). Neither of those years resulted in a championship for the conference, but all four teams advanced to at least the Elite Eight (Michigan State lost in the Final Four, Michigan in the title game).
Since Michigan State's title in 2000, the seven Big Ten teams to reach the title game have come up empty. Getting off to a good start can't hurt, and conference teams are 11-1 in the first round the past two tournaments.


The Big West Conference has caused some first-round trouble in two of the past four tourneys, in the form of a pair of No. 13 seeds. In 2016, Hawaii knocked off Cal, and two years ago UC Irvine beat Kansas State. Those wins represent the two lowest-seeded Big West teams to win a first-round game. Conference teams seeded 14th or worse are 0-13, the past five of which each lost by more than 25 points. This year, UC Santa Barbara is a 12-seed. Big West teams are 3-3 in the first round as No. 12 seeds in the modern era.


Through the years, Colonial Athletic Association teams have given opponents a hard time in the Big Dance, even if they don't have the wins to prove it. The league hasn't had a team win in any of the past seven NCAA tournaments, its longest streak in the modern era. However, 18 of the past 23 first-round games involving CAA teams have ended in victory or a single-digit loss (14 by five points or less). During the conference's heyday, George Mason (2006) and VCU (2011) were 11-seeds when they reached the Final Four. No such luck this year, as Drexel is a No. 16 seed. The last first-round win by a CAA outfit seeded 13th or worse came 19 years ago when Brett Blizzard and UNC Wilmington upset USC in OT.

 

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In 2019, Conference USA saw its impressive streak come to an end: four straight years winning a tournament game -- once each as a 12, 13, 14 and 15 seed. That's despite being a one-bid league each year, which has become the norm. Will North Texas get a new streak started for the conference? The Mean Green are a No. 13 seed and will face Purdue on Friday.


In each of the past eight tournaments, the Horizon League representative was a 13-seed or worse, and in all eight years that team lost in the first round. It's the most years without an NCAA tournament win in conference history, and most games haven't been all that close, as just two have been decided by single digits. It's another year with a poor seed, as Cleveland State is a No. 15. Horizon League teams are 1-15 in the first round as a 14th seed or worse. The only such win came from Xavier 30 years ago, when the league was called the Midwestern Collegiate Conference.


The MAAC has five first-round wins in its history, but none since 2009. This is the fifth straight tournament in which Iona has represented the conference, but its first with Rick Pitino at the helm. In each of the previous four years the Gaels lost their first-round game by an average of 16.5 points. This year, they are a No. 15 seed. No MAAC team has ever won a first-round game as a No. 14 seed or worse. But did you know ... the last time a MAAC team played to within single digits in the first round was against Pitino, when 13th-seeded Manhattan fell to Pitino's Louisville's squad by 7 points in 2014.

 

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The Mid-American Conference has won a tourney game in consecutive tourneys for the first time since 2001 to 2003. Both years it was Buffalo, in 2018 as a No. 13 seed and 2019 as a No. 6, the highest seed for a MAC team since 1979. Will there be more MACtion this year? It's all up to Ohio, a No. 13 seed. The Bobcats will face defending champion Virginia on Saturday. The past two times the MAC representative was a 13-seed, it won in the first round (Buffalo defeated Arizona in 2018, Ohio defeated Michigan in 2012).


Escaping the First Four has been a problem for the MEAC lately. Specifically, it's been NC Central's problem, which has lost in that round each of the past three tournaments. The same task lies ahead for Norfolk State this year, as it faces App State in the First Four. This marks the sixth straight tourney the MEAC has gotten a 16-seed. Dating back to 2011, the past four MEAC 16-seeds to play in the first round lost by an average of 33.0 points. How about a positive memory, though: Norfolk State is the last MEAC team to win in the first round, when they shocked Missouri as a No. 15 seed in 2012.


All good things must come to an end. The 2019 tourney marked the first time the Missouri Valley Conference lost a game in the first round since 2012 (Valley teams were 9-0 the previous six years). It was also the first time the Valley failed to win a tournament game since 2011. This recent run of success included a Sweet 16 (Wichita State in 2015) and the conference's only two trips to the Final Four in the modern era (No. 11 Loyola Chicago in 2018 and No. 9 Wichita State in 2013). While Drake will have to win in the First Four just to reach the first round, Loyola will try to get a new streak started for the league, as a No. 8 seed, the highest for a Valley team since 2015. Twisted stat alert: The MVC has won nine straight first-round games when seeded seventh through 11th.

 

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Since the formation of the conference in the 1999-2000 season, Mountain West schools are just 22-49 in the NCAA tournament (.310 win pct.) and the conference has never had a team get past the Sweet 16. To put that into perspective, 16 other conferences have had at least one team reach the Elite Eight in that span. We'll never know if San Diego State would've exorcised the conference's Big Dance demons last year (the Aztecs were sure to be a No. 1 or 2 seed). This is the fifth straight tourney with one or two bids for the Mountain West (San Diego State and Utah State this year). History is not on the side of the 11th-seeded Aggies, to say the least. Mountain West teams seeded 10th or worse are an abysmal 1-21 all time (including 0-2 in First Four games) and have lost 18 straight games dating back to 2002, when No. 11 seed Wyoming beat Gonzaga in Albuquerque.


The Northeast Conference is the only conference that has never won a first-round game (0-31). Only once in the past 21 years has an NEC team come within single digits of its opponent in the first round (Robert Morris lost to Villanova by 3 in overtime in 2010). Consistently being a 16-seed -- this is the ninth straight tourney -- is quite the historical hurdle to clear. Making matters worse, this is the eighth straight tournament the selection committee has sent the NEC champ (Mount St. Mary's this year) to the First Four - the only conference to have a streak of more than four straight appearances in the First Four -- so a trip to the first round is no certainty. On a positive note, NEC teams have won two of their past three First Four games.


The 2019 tourney was memorable for the Ohio Valley Conference. The league put two teams in the field of 68 and won a first-round game for the first time since 2012. This year, it's back to one bid for the OVC (Morehead State is a No. 14 seed). The conference has lost 18 straight games as a 14-seed or worse, and the last such win came in 1988.