The BOM

[MadJack]

Here's what I come up with today, based on the "new math":



1. Baseball - Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Boston Red Sox Money Line
I Kennedy -R Must Start
C Buchholz -R Must Start (-200)

2. Baseball - Tuesday, June 15, 2010
St Louis Cardinals Money Line
R Rowland-Smith -L Must Start
J Suppan -R Must Start (-160)

3. Baseball - Tuesday, June 15, 2010
San Francisco Giants Money Line
J Arrieta -R Must Start
J Martinez -R Must Start (-150)


1 to win 3.6

I don't know why I used AR at all, I should have used HOU. In my 3 team par, I used the 3 worst teams :shrug:

MIL is appraoching that last 3 again too. lol


<TABLE id=tr_ranking_table class="tr_table tr_sortable" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR style="DISPLAY: block" id=row_1426 team1_league_id="714" team1_id="1426"><TD class=tr_arrow_none sortValue="23">23</TD><TD class=tr_al sortValue="Arizona">Arizona <SMALL>(26-38)</SMALL></TD><TD class=" tr_sorted" sortValue="98.6857">98.7</TD><TD>5-8</TD><TD>4-4</TD><TD>10-17</TD><TD class=tr_light sortValue="24">24</TD><TD sortValue="14">14</TD><TD sortValue="28">28</TD></TR><TR style="DISPLAY: block" id=row_1419 class=tr_alt team1_league_id="713" team1_id="1419"><TD class=tr_arrow_none sortValue="24">24</TD><TD class=tr_al sortValue="Chi Cubs">Chi Cubs <SMALL>(28-35)</SMALL></TD><TD class=" tr_sorted" sortValue="98.6199">98.6</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>10-9</TD><TD class=tr_light sortValue="25">25</TD><TD sortValue="15">15</TD><TD sortValue="28">28</TD></TR><TR style="DISPLAY: block" id=row_1400 team1_league_id="712" team1_id="1400"><TD class=tr_arrow_down sortValue="25">25</TD><TD class=tr_al sortValue="Cleveland">Cleveland <SMALL>(25-37)</SMALL></TD><TD class=" tr_sorted" sortValue="98.5746">98.6</TD><TD>3-7</TD><TD>3-9</TD><TD>2-4</TD><TD class=tr_light sortValue="23">23</TD><TD sortValue="16">16</TD><TD sortValue="29">29</TD></TR><TR style="DISPLAY: block" id=row_1424 class=tr_alt team1_league_id="713" team1_id="1424"><TD class=tr_arrow_none sortValue="26">26</TD><TD class=tr_al sortValue="Milwaukee">Milwaukee <SMALL>(27-37)</SMALL></TD><TD class=" tr_sorted" sortValue="98.5182">98.5</TD><TD>1-6</TD><TD>4-3</TD><TD>7-13</TD><TD class=tr_light sortValue="27">27</TD><TD sortValue="14">14</TD><TD sortValue="29">29</TD></TR><TR style="DISPLAY: block" id=row_1423 team1_league_id="713" team1_id="1423"><TD class=tr_arrow_none sortValue="27">27</TD><TD class=tr_al sortValue="Houston">Houston <SMALL>(25-39)</SMALL></TD><TD class=" tr_sorted" sortValue="98.1805">98.2</TD><TD>2-10</TD><TD>0-6</TD><TD>9-14</TD><TD class=tr_light sortValue="28">28</TD><TD sortValue="25">25</TD><TD sortValue="30">30</TD></TR><TR style="DISPLAY: block" id=row_1408 class=tr_alt team1_league_id="710" team1_id="1408"><TD class=tr_arrow_down sortValue="28">28</TD><TD class=tr_al sortValue="Seattle">Seattle <SMALL>(24-40)</SMALL></TD><TD class=" tr_sorted" sortValue="98.0006">98.0</TD><TD>3-9</TD><TD>6-9</TD><TD>2-9</TD><TD class=tr_light sortValue="26">26</TD><TD sortValue="6">6</TD><TD sortValue="28">28</TD></TR><TR style="DISPLAY: block" id=row_1421 team1_league_id="713" team1_id="1421"><TD class=tr_arrow_none sortValue="29">29</TD><TD class=tr_al sortValue="Pittsburgh">Pittsburgh <SMALL>(23-40)</SMALL></TD><TD class=" tr_sorted" sortValue="97.2198">97.2</TD><TD>1-5</TD><TD>2-4</TD><TD>9-13</TD><TD class=tr_light sortValue="29">29</TD><TD sortValue="17">17</TD><TD sortValue="30">30</TD></TR><TR style="DISPLAY: block" id=row_1409 class=tr_alt team1_league_id="711" team1_id="1409"><TD class=tr_arrow_none sortValue="30">30</TD><TD class=tr_al sortValue="Baltimore">Baltimore <SMALL>(17-47)</SMALL></TD><TD class=" tr_sorted" sortValue="96.2275">96.2</TD><TD>8-19</TD><TD>2-12</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD class=tr_light sortValue="30">30</TD><TD sortValue="22">22</TD><TD sortValue="30">30</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[MadJack]

And I'm rolling my eyes at myself for taking a 4 team parlay, on the RL none the less

That's just pissing it away.

 

[yyz]

And I'm rolling my eyes at myself for taking a 4 team parlay, on the RL none the less

That's just pissing it away.

I noticed that myself. You get a nice chunk, and it's like....."How can I piss this away!!??"

:142smilie


There was a two team winner out there yesterday using the "new math", but the odds were shitty.

Today, I like what I see, with the exception of Suppan throwing for St Louis. :sadwave:


But, Jack.......YOU KNOW that r/l is going to kill you on one of these wagers some day. All for a few more bucks? :shrug:

Be happy grinding it out, and by the end of the season, this might put 3 dimes in your pocket!

 

[MadJack]

I noticed that myself. You get a nice chunk, and it's like....."How can I piss this away!!??"

:142smilie


There was a two team winner out there yesterday using the "new math", but the odds were shitty.

Today, I like what I see, with the exception of Suppan throwing for St Louis. :sadwave:


But, Jack.......YOU KNOW that r/l is going to kill you on one of these wagers some day. All for a few more bucks? :shrug:

Be happy grinding it out, and by the end of the season, this might put 3 dimes in your pocket!

Even if I come out even I had fun. I'll quit when I get even but I would like to have it grow and play all year.

 

[wareagle]

been following this for a few weeks and up a decent bit

was going to put stl in there today, but major RLM on cards...opens @ -200 now at -165 with public hammering cards.

today i did
white sox
san fran
laa

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

As bad as Suppan is, and he's horrible, RRS has been even worse for the M's (at least this year). So I guess the difference for me comes down to the fact that the Cards actually have an offense, and the M's don't. I was going to hit the over in that game but laid off when I saw it was only 9. That seems "too easy" to me.

As for playing the RL, I don't think it's a bad idea if you play it small. I just wouldn't play the RL for the same amount as the ML since it's obviously higher risk. A while back I read that 70% of the times teams win they don't just cover the ML, they cover the RL as well. I don't know about parlays, but with straight betting, over the long run, you will make more money playing big faves on the RL than on the ML (and these games are always big faves since you're going against the worst teams).

 

[yyz]

As bad as Suppan is, and he's horrible, RRS has been even worse for the M's (at least this year). So I guess the difference for me comes down to the fact that the Cards actually have an offense, and the M's don't. I was going to hit the over in that game but laid off when I saw it was only 9. That seems "too easy" to me.

As for playing the RL, I don't think it's a bad idea if you play it small. I just wouldn't play the RL for the same amount as the ML since it's obviously higher risk. A while back I read that 70% of the times teams win they don't just cover the ML, they cover the RL as well. I don't know about parlays, but with straight betting, over the long run, you will make more money playing big faves on the RL than on the ML (and these games are always big faves since you're going against the worst teams).

I took the over in the StL game.

Also, the 70% stat seems skewed to me. It must account for peeople betting one the +1' at huge odds as well. If you figure on just the favorite....I'm sure it comes down quite a bit.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

I took the over in the StL game.

Also, the 70% stat seems skewed to me. It must account for peeople betting one the +1' at huge odds as well. If you figure on just the favorite....I'm sure it comes down quite a bit.

Being the dumbass that I am, I couldn't lay off the Cards over but I ended up getting 9'. I don't think it will matter. RRS has been a gascan this year and something that I think will be important is the fact that the M's taxed their pen yesterday, so Wak will probably leave him out there to endure the abuse even if he gets roughed up.

As for the RL percentage, it didn't factor in the +1'. it was only referring to the -1', and the reason I know that is because the link was posted by a guy on another forum who only plays -1' bets. And if you think about it, it makes sense. The vast majority of the time a team wins they will win by some number (2,3,4,5,6,7,8...) other than 1 run. If a team loses it obviously doesn't matter if you had the ML or RL (although you saved yourself money if you played the RL because the bet would be smaller). However, if that team wins their game, the odds of them winning by just one run aren't very good. Sure it happens from time to time, but in the long run they will cover the RL more often than not.

To be honest, I thought winning by only one run 30% of the time seemed a little high. :shrug: The one thing I would add is that he may have only been talking about RL HOME faves, because I don't think he bets road teams. So I guess that might skew the numbers a bit, but road teams get an extra at-bat so the numbers might even be less than 30% if you throw road teams into the mix.

Now I'm curious... I may go back to the start of the season and check some percentages on teams to see how often they've covered the RL. :142smilie

 

[MadJack]

+983

almost a clean sweep. fukin O's :sadwave:

maybe try again tonight. too busy to even think about it right now.

so close!!

 

[MadJack]

wtf

<TABLE class="matchupBox fontsize12" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=evenRow><TD class=leftColumn>06/16/2010 by ONLINE at 05:40 AM </TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=teamCell><TABLE class=title cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD>[Ticket #: 78115040] 3 TEAMS PARLAY</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=evenRow><TD class=dateCell>06/16/2010 @ 12:45 PM </TD><TD class=idCell>MLB</TD><TD class=pickCell>[904] SFO GIANTS -1?-130
( J GUTHRIE-R / T LINCECUM-R )</TD></TR><TR class=oddRow><TD class=dateCell>06/16/2010 @ 04:05 PM </TD><TD class=idCell>MLB</TD><TD class=pickCell>[911] CHI W SOX -1?+120
( J DANKS-L / Z DUKE-L )</TD></TR><TR class=evenRow><TD class=dateCell>06/16/2010 @ 05:15 PM </TD><TD class=idCell>MLB</TD><TD class=pickCell>[930] STL CARDINALS -1?+105
( J VARGAS-L / J GARCIA-L )</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=selectCell>100.00</TD><TD class=selectCell>697.92</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[yyz]

I'm done with the InterL crap. I posted that I hate it, and don't bet it.....and then I post 3 losers!

:mj07:

 

[MadJack]

+883

CWS -135 270/200 :shrug:

 

[MadJack]

+883

CWS -135 270/200 :shrug:

win or lose this won't count in the fade the losers parlays record.

 

[MadJack]

06/18/2010 by ONLINE at 02:23 AM [Ticket #: 78215460] 3 TEAMS PARLAY
06/18/2010 @ 04:05 PM MLB [911] CLE INDIANS -115
( CARMONA-R / P MAHOLM-L )
06/18/2010 @ 07:05 PM MLB [928] SDG PADRES -161
( B MATUSZ-L / W LEBLANC-L )
06/18/2010 @ 07:10 PM MLB [929] CIN REDS +126
( J CUETO-R / C LEE-L )
100.00 584.96

 

[MadJack]

+783

no parlay today. taking the tigers and taking padres RL for 2 units each.

these don't count against my w/l figure.

the parlay today doesn't pay enough to make it a worthwhile bet, imo.

looked good yesterday but the m's won 1-0 to blow it for me.

it's us open golf this afternoon, with jalapeno and cheese brats on the grill with grilled onions and green pepper and a lot of beer.

:0074

 

[MadJack]

06/20/2010 by ONLINE at 03:02 AM [Ticket #: 78314913] 3 TEAMS PARLAY
06/20/2010 @ 10:35 AM MLB [915] CLE INDIANS -134
( ACTION )
06/20/2010 @ 01:05 PM MLB [926] SDG PADRES -163
( ACTION )
06/20/2010 @ 01:10 PM MLB [927] CIN REDS -136
( ACTION )
100.00 388.94

 

[MadJack]

06/20/2010 by ONLINE at 03:04 AM [Ticket #: 78314923] 4 TEAMS PARLAY
06/20/2010 @ 10:05 AM MLB [904] DET TIGERS -160
( ACTION )
06/20/2010 @ 10:35 AM MLB [915] CLE INDIANS -134
( ACTION )
06/20/2010 @ 01:05 PM MLB [926] SDG PADRES -163
( ACTION )
06/20/2010 @ 01:10 PM MLB [927] CIN REDS -136
( ACTION )
100.00 694.52

 

[MadJack]

+$583

I'm gonna take my money and run. It's due to hit after this long drought, but I'll just play it safe.

:sadwave:

 

[yyz]

Jack,

If you really want to tweak this thing, how about this:


These four teams are the WORST by far on the road:

• Bal 6-25
• Sea 9-22
• Pit 9-25
• Az 9-22

Just wait until you have these teams on the road. If only two are playing, two teamer. If all four are out there.....I would shy away from all of them, but maybe grab the worst three?


Az, Sea, and Bal.......all start roadies tomorrow, BTW!

:0corn


(And stay away from that runline!)

This hit two outta three days this weekend.

:shrug:

 

[MadJack]

This hit two outta three days this weekend.

:shrug:

I was playing the 3 worst teams, BAL, PIT, SEA :shrug:

But it prob hit with the original 3 with MIL in the mix. Fuck tweeking, like I told you to begin with