The Masters

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Vijay Singh to win 14/1 e.w. @ Stan James
With odds on this event being available for several months, there are very few ricks at the moment particularly on the leading players. This price is rather out of line and enough to warrant a play. After all the pressure of his run of top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour (12 including WGC events), his form has certainly dipped in the last six weeks, nbut it had to from such a peak. His finish in the Players Championship was his best since his last top-10 finish when he won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and this event will have been his primary focus since his run came to an end. This was the scene of his last major win and with the course playing dry again, the big hitters should have a sizeable advantage again.

Padraig Harrington to win 24/1 e.w. @ Olympic [0.75pts to win; 0.75pts to 'show']
Harrington is no slouch off the tee either. He averaged a fraction under 300 yards last week and is famous for his recovery skills around the green. He has put them to good use in the last two weeks or rather he has used them too much in the last two weeks, but he has still finished 2nd and 4th. He is the ultimate grinder and can produce high finishes week after week; when he finished 5th in this event two years ago, he had finished 8th in the BellSouth Classic the previous week. At lower odds, I would have passed over Harrington in favour of Verplank (66/1), but this is somewhat of an outlier and Verplank would have been a definite selection had the conditions been wet. They are not and the more powerful hitters should prosper this week.

Retief Goosen to win 33/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
Despite his U.S. Open win in 2001, Goosen is far from a short, but straight player. He has missed his last two cuts, but as with Singh, it matters little for the first major of the year. His form had been good with four top-10 in his previous five PGA Tour starts of the season and he is already a major winner. He very nearly held off Tiger Woods to win this title in 2002 and two years on, he would certainly fancy his chances if he were to be in the same situation again. The price is too large for a player of his calibre.

 

[rrc]

Some notes...

Some notes...

The last 5 majors have been won by first timers, can it continue??

Appleby...missed the cut in 5 of his last 6 Masters.
Bjorn...301 off tee in U.S., 5th in putting/13th in scoring in Europe last year
Campbell...69th in putting last year
Casey....first Masters
Clarke....scrambling and putting not always the best
Garcia...putting woes
Harrington...played well in 2002
Howell...poor last year
Jacobson...better scrambler than ball striker, great putter
Kaye...if he sneaks into contention who knows
Rose...solid, 39th in first Masters last year, improvement
Scott...9th in 2002,23rd last year,can he putt like he did at Sawgrass??

Good luck to all.

(info from SI golf plus Masters issue)

 

[veride]

okay... The Masters

okay... The Masters

win only :

Phil Mickelson --> 8/1 Expekt for 2 units
Ernie Els --> 12/1 Unibet for 2 units

and... ( yes its absolutely real ! ) :
Tim Clark --> 349/1 Unibet for 0,5 unit

and...
Scott Verplank --> 74/1 Unibet for 0,5 unit
Chris DiMarco --> 99/1 Unibet for 0,5 unit

place only :

1-5 (first 5) :

Scott Verplank --> 14/1 SkyBet for 1 unit
Chris DiMarco --> 20/1 Paddy Power for 1 unit
Tim Clark --> 49/1 Unibet for 0,5 unit


1-10 (to finish in the top 10) :

Scott Verplank --> 9/2 Paddy Power for 1 unit
Chris DiMarco --> 7/1 Paddy Power for 1 unit
K.J.Choi --> 15/2 Paddy Power for 1 unit
Tim Clark --> 16/1 Paddy Power for 1 unit

 

[gethman]

Really hard to make cases for a large part of the field this week, which leaves little value, as the players I have most likely to win this week, are on top of mostly every bookmakers markets.
I think Tiger will struggle again here this week. I have not seen anything in recent weeks which has convinced me his bad days are over, and I can really see him going without a major again this season. This may well pave the way for Phil Mickelson to win his first major, although a quote of around ten to one is too short for my liking on a player seeking to win his first major.
Retief Goosen has the profile of a likely winner of this tournament. I will forgive him his last few outings in the hope he is saving himself for something big this week. At a 33/1 quote he is certainly backable.
Obvious cases can be made for Ernie Els and Vijay Singh, while I am expecting Mike Weir to struggle in defence of the Green Jacket.
I could not rule out a fairytale win for big Jon Daly. His green in regulation and putting stats certainly should put him in contention, and providing he can hold his nerve and handle the odd bogey, he might surprise a few people.
Missed the boat a little on Adam Scott when he was available at bigger prices earlier in the season. A 28/1 quote is still enough to tempt me. Hoping that missing the weekend last week will work into his hands.

Retief Goosen, 33/1, Ladbrokes, 1.5 Pt E/W

John Daly, 80/1, Ladbrokes, 1 Pt E/W

Adam Scott, 28/1, Tote, 2 Pt E/W

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Will add more but here are my antepost bets that were posted in the early Masters thread.

Mickelson 25-1 5u
CCampbell 50-1 2.5u
CCampbell 66-1 1u
JKaye 140-1 0.75u
SCink 225-1 0.5u

 

[gethman]

Hoping to use the matchbets as my main source of profit for the Masters this week, with so little on the outright selections.

Scott Verplank to beat David Toms, 1/1, Bet365, 1.5 Point

Obvious choice in opposing Toms at the moment especially at these 'outsider' odds. I would not be first in queue to bet Verplank to win tournaments outright, but he is very trustworthy when used in match bets. Everything suggests he should go well this week. His game is amongst the neatest on tour, and if you pout the ball in the right spots at Augusta you generally go well. Amongst the most tidy golfers in the world, and unlikely to find too many hazards.
Toms has obvious major crudentails in future, but I think this is too soon after his wrist injury. He failed as expected last week in the BellSouth last week, and is struggling off the tee. May well strugle to make the cut this week.

Justin Leonard to beat Charles Howell, 10/11, BlueSquare, 1 Point

BlueSquare once again tempt me into this bet. Used successfully in the Players Championship, I am happy once again to oppose Charles Howell. He is having a poor season, considering he was tipped to be a world class player not so long ago. He ranks outside the top one hundred golfers on stats such as greens in regulation, driving, and putting, and that does not bode well for a course such as Augusta.
Leonard himself is not on top of his game, but his game is in better shape than that of Charles Howell, and although it is unlikely either player will be troubling the places, I expect Leonard to at least make the weekend, while Howell could be going home early again.

Phil Mickelson to beat Tiger Woods, 6/4, Bet365, 0.75 Point

Quite happy to oppose Tiger Woods at the moment. It is no secret how well Mickelson is playing at the moment, and as said earlier, he may never have a better chance to win his first major.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will be hard to follow last weeks 1-2 finishers

"Might be some longer ones get in the thick of it this week as with last year--some lesser knowns on short list Z Johnson and Hensby---"

5Dimes
BellSouth Classic - Top 5 - Zach Johnson 13/1 $10.00 $130.00 W $140.00 $130.00
BellSouth Classic - Top 5 - Mark Hensby 16/1 $10.00 $160.00 W $170.00 $160.00

Skybet
O/10101267/0000206
Single $10.00 Place Only - First 5
Johnson Z @ 9/1 $100.00 $0.00
O/10101267/0000205
Single $10.00 Place Only - First 5
Hensby M @ 12/1 $130.00 $0.00

but will give it a go
Did get down in a post ante on Scott @ 66/1 when midway through 1st rd in his win 2 weeks back

http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=141257

and will add top 5's
Choi 18/1 5Dimes
Dimarco 16/1 skybet
Verplank 14/1 Skybet
Izawa 45/1 5Dimes
and while I don't have account there he is offered @ Paddy @ 18/1 to finish top 10.

--a little on Izawa

He has been cut last 2 here but had 4th place finish prior. Could be do to wet conditions last 2 masters and lengthing.Remembers Nick Price remarks about killing short hitters. Some "unoticable facts" about him is he is only 1 of 20 players in the world to have winning record vs top 50 players last 12 months(97-86) --and never finished outside top 25 in 3 events stateside(excluding match play last year)
PGA Champ 18th
NEC 14th
AXP Champ 25th

 

[lostinamerica]

My Masters inventory as I have assembled it to date, ranked according to my current preferences:

Phil Mickelson(25/1) for 0.60* e.w.
Phil's nipples should be hard enough to cut glass.

Padraigh Harrington(33/1 & 20/1) for 0.50* e.w.
Europe's best short game on green's like these, and a good bit more.

John Daly(50/1) for 0.50* e.w.
I like John, but there is no way in hell I want John Daly to stand within a U.S. Open title (no matter how hard to come by that may seem to be) of becoming the 6th man in the annals of the game to achieve a career Grand Slam - in my head and heart I carry a lengthy list of choices that I would rather see seizing this year's title as a capstone or a launching pad . . .That being said, I've been capping this week for going on 365 days, and to my eye, I think he'll come with answers.

Tiger Woods(+400) To Win for 1*
My mandatory "Say it ain't so" insurance investment to try and keep Tiger Who at bay. It's understood I was shopping for +350 and not +425 with this wager. Standunder?

Adam Scott(50/1) for 0.50* e.w.
Master Adam is packing a lot of game, but to my way of thinking, the scalp he already bagged zaps the edge off this play.


Some other notes:

(A) My first post of the season and the protagonist thereof are now in the crosshairs:"I'm not up to speed, even though the time is here for 2004. Nevertheless, I'll start the year off with these words from Dave Tindall @ bettingzone that say what I was thinking: 'If (Phil) Mickelson is to bounce back with a bang in 2003, the most likely place for him to showcase his return to the top is Augusta. Even in his poor 2003 season he managed a third place finish and that means he's finished tied seventh or better in seven of the last nine years'".

(B) Augusta is close to nursing at his mother's tit territory for The Striped One, but even if class transcends form in this one, it won't change the fact that Tiger has been in denial about the full state of his singular game.

(C) My money was with Daly before he was in the field.

(D) I would have been fully committed to Padraigh at 33/1 if I had remembered that Bet365 pulls down their Masters line before the action heats up in the final prelude event. A fact hereby noted for the antepost future.

(E) Scott sold me Big Time while playing alongside Els for four rounds at Royal Melbourne (Heineken), and the "what's not to like" theme that permeated thereafter. While Sawgrass brought a quick return on my investment, the extent of that investment was made pretty clear in my 3/21/04 post: "I think the days are numbered for this season in which Adam Scott will be rated at 50/1 before they hand out the examination papers in the four majors."

(F) Would my wagers look about the same with the odds now on offer? With funds at only three dependable golf outs, and a slow trigger finger week in and week out, I'm sort of used to a state of affairs in which the best prices are out of my reach. (Hell, I think I have a slow trigger finger when it comes to the Masters, but once I'm sold, I have to be unsold. Like Stan alluded to, a missed cut the week before this week can easily be forgiven.) Anywho, who I like usually carries the day over who the book wants to entice me with, so there would be plenty of similarities if the market hadn't opened until Monday, although if that were the case, I probably wouldn't be able to avoid a plunge with DLIII sort of under the radar, and much the same with mighty VJ.


Parting thoughts:

(1) Harrington missing the cut last year scrambles my brain with conceptions of that being a good thing, while I'm not at all so inclined when it comes to Campbell and Appleby.

(2) My expectations were with Adam Scott's close friend Thomas Bjorn last week, but it was the Aussies (including Terry Price) that came out blazing on the heels of Scott's arrival at the head table. So where's that supposed to leave me this week - with debutante Flanagan, or the Appleby/Allenby mates, or back to Bjorn, or all the way back to the head table?

(3) Time now to overindulge on specialty markets, propositions and anything I fancy. It's the Masters.


GL

 

[veride]

Trampled Underfoot and lostinamerica --> why don't You notice which sportbook are You using ?

 

[lostinamerica]

Veride: Welcome to the best crew on the best handicapping forum on the internet. Your insights and your winners will be much appreciated.

In three years of posting here, my laborious and anal retentive posts have always spelled out with precision the sportsbook, with the exception of three years of antepost bets on the Masters. In fact, I strongly suspect others might wonder why I even bother to list the sportsbook, when 80% of the time it's Bet365, and 15% of the time it's 5dimes. In this case, only Bet365 has been available to me for e.w. antepost bets on the Masters that pay 5 places, while I topped off on Padraigh at 5dimes.

Finally, I am even slower to pull the trigger in making a post than I am in making a wager. Even something like congratulating TU on his selection in Bellsouth can take a good long while with me. I think you will also find I am fairly meticulous about giving attribution to my facts, with prefaces and caveats like "if my calculations are correct", or "an article in the Arizona Republic stated", etc. . . . I try to offer my insights and perspectives on players, events, themes and nuggets of news, and even though my turns of phrase can seem cryptic and ambiguous, I always try to say what I mean. On the other hand, it's a rare day when I try to spread the news about big prices or goofy lines . . . I cap football and golf, and when I try to hold my own among the esteemed cappers I associate with at Madjack's, I watch my step closely out of necessity. Others are at their best in a rapid give and take or shooting from the hip. Everyone contributes in their own way, and I am on the lookout for any information I can use from any perspective it is offered . . . When my slow working brain figures out how I want to say what I'm thinking, I put it out there. And my week's work or day's work is rarely offered on a piecemeal basis. I am well aware that means my posts are too frequently too late to be much help, if anybody even cares. I'll continue to do what I can, because I enjoy it.

Once again, welcome aboard. Cheers!

GL

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Stuart Appleby to beat John Daly -118 @ Expekt
I fancy Daly to do well this week and looks good value at 80/1 to win with Ladbrokes, but in matchups he is a different proposition altogether. In his last five starts, he has three top-10 finishes, including a win, but his other two finishes were 69th and 79th. So long as Daly is not in contention, he could easily shoot very high scores over the weekend and makes him opposable in matchups.

Angel Cabrera to beat Ian Poulter -118 @ Expekt [3pts]
Another set of opposable players in matchups is rookies. Course experience is very important at Augusta and Poulter has none. Cabrera missed the cut on his debut in 2000 but has finished in the top-15 in each of the preceding three years. Having also finished in the top-20 in his last two PGA Tour events, he looks a decent shot to continue his run of high finishes in this event.

Bernhard Langer to beat Michael Campbell -143 @ Expekt
Langer has missed only one cut since he made his debut here in 1982, winning twice. By contrast, Campbell has missed the cut on four previous visits with every round over par. With the Ryder Cup captain in good form - all eight cuts made on the PGA Tour this year, including two top-10 finishes - this should be straightforward.
(also available at NordicBet)

Stewart Cink to beat Steve Flesch -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Cink is another who has been playing well this year, making every cut, though not well enough to win or finish in the top-5 as tipped last week. He has good course form with four top-30 finishes in his last five years and should beat Flesch who missed the cut in his only previous start here in 2001.

Stewart Cink to beat Jonathan Kaye -118 @ Expekt
Kaye has won this year - the FBR Open - but has since struggled, missing two cuts and finishing 30th and 56th in the other two events. He did make the cut on his only previous start at Augusta in 2001, but three of four rounds were over par and if Cink makes the cut he should also prosper in this match.

Brad Faxon to beat Jonathan Kaye -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Making the cut should be straightforward for Faxon. Apart from his missed cut in 1997, his worst finish in the last ten years at the Masters has been 26th. He has also made his last three cuts after struggling on the West Coast Swing, so this should be enough.

Kirk Triplett to beat Peter Lonard -118 @ Expekt [3pts]
Lonard showed an impressive return to form last week, having missed three of his previous cuts on Tour. It will be a muhc tougher challenge to maintain his form this week as he made his debut at Augusta last year with rounds of 78 and 82. Triplett has had four top-15 finishes this year already and was 6th here back in 2001.

 

[kjls04202]

Hi Guys-

Rowing in with most this week and see the winner coming from Goosen, Mickelson, Appleby.

It is not hard to see Verplank have a good week also.

Good Luck!!

 

[matchmaker]

Two Outright Plays for me [1/4 place odds 12345]

GARCIA:1.5 Units E/W @ 50-1 [Chandler]

VERPLANK:1 Unit E/W @ 66-1 [Chandler]

Sergio is hitting the ball well,but is low on confidence when trying to back it up.But there is no pressure on him this week,as most pundits dont fancy him because of the short game being off key.
But I think after threatning to hit form in at least one round all season,he will rise to the occasion on the big stage.
Verplank is so steady and has the ideal temperament,and after last years good finish wont be afraid of the course anymore.
Good Luck All

 

[bettingmad]

Nevertheless, I'll start the year off with these words from Dave Tindall @ bettingzone that say what I was thinking: 'If (Phil) Mickelson is to bounce back with a bang in 2003, the most likely place for him to showcase his return to the top is Augusta. Even in his poor 2003 season he managed a third place finish and that means he's finished tied seventh or better in seven of the last nine years'".

Just to point out that Mickelson was freely available at 33/1 when Dave Tindall wrote that!

 

[Clive]

Probably nothing for me this week...sitting on 33/1 Mickelson and 100/1 Daly....hopefully they will provide some amusement.

 

[hoss]

draw is now available:

<www.masters.org/en_US/scores/pairings/index.html>

Has anybody seen a decent breakdown of the weather, I looked earlier and it looked like Thursday in Augusta was going to be a bit nasty - 40% rain, thunderstorms + a bit more wind than usual. Would love some confirmation from the US - anyone?

one early play

0.2pts e/w Fred Funk 100/1 Top US w/o Tiger at Corals 1/4 1234



hoss

 

[Stanley]

Adding:

Nick Price to beat Peter Lonard +100 @ WWTS [4.5pts]
Opposing Lonard again. He finished 15 shots behind Price after 36 holes last year and as outlined above, he has missed two of his last four cuts. Price is certainly not the player that he was, but he is still more than capable of finishing in the top-30 for the seventh time in nine years.

 

[lostinamerica]

Wednesday Morning Additions:

OUTRIGHTS:

(A) Nick Flanagan(50/1 and 1/4 for Top 3) for Top Debutant for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
- Staying with my first instinct after breaking it down.

(B) Angel Cabrera(80/1 Win Only) for 1st Round Leader for 0.20* @ Bet365
http://www.angelcabrera.com/news.htm
- I was at Olympia Fields and saw firsthand what went down on Thursday and Friday in the Watson/Verplank/Cabrera pairing. How that could play out in this Cabrera/Verplank/Faldo pairing is too striking for me to lurch out elsewhere.

(C) John Daly(66/1 Win Only) for 1st Round Leader for 0.20* e.w. @ Bet365
- I think there is a fine chance John can create some early opportunities, and if so, the sky is the limit. On the other hand, a Singh/Harrington/Daly pairing seems to provide a bit of a governor on Daly going too far in either direction on Thursday, or maybe just in one direction.


MATCHUPS:

(1) Adam Scott(-145) over Sergio Garcia (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes
- I think Scott will have at least one flash of brilliance along the way, and be not too bad the rest of the way, and I expect Scott's rendition thereof to be enough to tame Garcia.

(2) Scott Verplank(-110) over David Toms (Tournament - Ties Lose) for 1* @ Bet365
- Decided that I prefer Verplank in this matchup rather than the outrights.

(3) Phil Mickelson(-150) over Mike Weir (Tournament) for 1* @ Olympic
- Wasn't until after deciding on the wager that I realized and thought of it as Lefty vs. Lefty.

GL

*************************************************

Phil Mickelson: http://www.golfweek.com/articles/2004/pro/majors/men/masters/38303.asp

 

[He Hate Me]

Outrights

John Daly 66-1 5 dimes
Paddy Harrington 35-1 Terribles
Phil Mickelson 12-1 Terribles
Adam Scott 50-1 Cal-Neva
John Daly 12-1 Top 5
Adam Scott 8-1 Top4
John Daly to make cut -210
Colin Monty to miss cut +135

Mickelson +140 over Tiger
Daly -130 over Funk
Daly +110 over Toms
Scott -155 over CH3


I wish Johnny Miller was announcing. I dont care for this attention graber Arnold Palmer, isnt this like his 7th farewell tour?

Also a tip of the cap goes out to the poster LostInAmerica for his outstanding performance in the 2004 golf season, you have impressed a guy who is not easily impressed, thanks for the tremendous insight.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Hard to tell on this weather but here is one Augusta link Hoss.
http://search.weather.yahoo.com/forecast/USGA0032.html
Wish I knew if they get rain or not on Thursday. Evidently Olympic thinks they will. They have some low totals for 1st rd scores in props. Tempted to go over on all as on easy course conditions you should hit 40% and if bad could sweep the board--considering only 3 players shot in 60's 1st rd last year in bad condidions and Best Tiger-Els-Mick and Singh could come up with was a 73 beween them with ave score of the 4 @ 75.25