WEDNESDAY:
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Glad to see so many patrons back again for the Masters. Maybe the Canadian contingent won't create such a ruckus this time.
:canada1
lal: I surely believe your plays are being posted plenty timely. I always look for them, as going after stuff with longer odds always holds some appeal with me. Ben Curtis proves anything is possible, and in his own way, so does Jean Van de Velde. I've probably broken even putting a few dollars on quite a few of your plays in February and March, and I can fondly recall that seeing you on Haeggman in Qatar entered into my final decision making process. And just in passing, although it didn't pan out, Stan's play on Rosie Jones at Dinah Shore was one of my favorites in three years of trying for those elusive longshots . . . .This week, that's certainly a nice price on Rose, and he may do something nice, but no way do I think his time is this week; but I look forward to that day, and you seem enough of a phenom with your way of doing things to have even that one go your way. I feel almost but not quite as strongly about staying away from Immelman at just about any price they care to offer me, while I have to concede the outside prospects of O'Meara tracking down a Top 5 finish, and doing it from start to finish. After that, it's easier for me to see a way for any of your remaining selections to shock the world. Good luck, always.
DTB: I always get a chuckle out of seeing you lined up to bet on the next train wreck.
Thoughts on Tiger: I stand by the thrust of my two earlier observations about the Striped One at this moment, and will offer more of the same. Butch Harmon recently commented that Tiger is out of position in his swing, and corroboration merely requires noting the fact that Tiger isn't trying his patented stinger shot because he's in no position to pull it off. I can't evaluate the technical merits of the analysis, but Butchie is dead on right about Tiger not going there . . . And what Thomas Boswell (Washington Post) said last year is just as true this year: "Woods has led or been tied for the lead (going into the final round) in eight majors. His jaw-dropping leads were 10, nine, six, four and (twice) one shot. Twice, he was tied for the lead. He's won all eight of those majors . . . Tiger has tried to come from behind in 16 other majors and he's 0 for 16. A couple of charges, similar to what he'll need here, have failed at the wire . . .
With Woods, everything is assumed to be magically easy. That's disgracefully unfair . . . The psychology of being behind Tiger and being ahead of him is utterly different. When Woods is ahead, pros think, "How can I catch him? He's better than me." But, with a lead, they think, "Sure, he's better. But my lead makes the match even. I've got a real chance." For one day, (even without a lead, could a Maggert, Weir) Singh, Olazabal, Mickelson or Toms, all going for broke, beat Tiger? Woods knows they could. Ironically, nobody respects the difficulty of golf -- especially Sunday at a major -- more than Woods. No matter how confident he is, he never deludes himself that he doesn't need a little luck and a break here or there on those weeks -- like this one -- when his "A" game is far, far away. . . . When Woods has the lead, he has two huge edges -- his superior ability and his superior mind. He knows when to be conservative, even if it costs him a shot off his lead. When he's behind, especially as the remaining holes dwindle, his strategic advantage disappears. He just has to fire at diabolical pin positions, just like everybody else, and hope for the best. "I don't know if people really understand where they have put a lot of these flags," Woods said. "They are closer to the edges of the green and [to the] trouble than ever. . . . There is a price to pay if you do miss it only by a yard off. That's all it takes here. I hit a shot on number one that was one yard left of the flag and I ended up almost in the gallery. And that's what Augusta can do if you miss just one yard. That's all it takes." That's why Tiger loves leads. And isn't so fond of the got-to-go-for-it tactics that turn him into just another gambler. Woods never fools with that last dastardly yard of a margin of error, if he can help it. He's no foolhardy Greg Norman who never learned his limits. But Sunday, he may have no choice." . . . . . . . . . . . . . . In the overall scheme of things, no storyline this season is any bigger than how Tiger responds to not winning a major in 2003; it will be quite a scoop if the final verdict on his effort in 2004 is that it was worse than 2003. Bad mouth a hungry Tiger and discount him at your own peril at Augusta in April, IMO. "Form comes and goes, but class is permanent."
Thoughts on Palmer: Stealing from Ed Sherman (Chicago Tribune): The Masters defined Palmer as a player, and Palmer defined the Masters as the centerpiece of the golf calendar . . .The television camera either loves you or it hates you. The cameras fell in love with Palmer and never stopped . . . There will be kid's in the gallery today that will speak with wonder 50 years from now when they tell their grandchildren they saw Arnold Palmer play in this week's Masters.
Thoughts on Mickelson: Until just a few months ago, the conventional wisdom was that Mickelson's best chance at a major would come when expectations were fairly low (assuming he wasn't somehow completely incapable, which I never thought any closer to the truth than I did with Greg Norman; put yourself there enough times, and it will happpen for the likes of those talents). That conventional wisdom may still prove true. (And The Masters was certainly being generally thought of as the most likely of the four.) . . . But if the critical putts are falling before the weekend, as I strongly suspect they will be, then Mickelson is not likely to ever again script himself any finer opportunity than here and now to emerge in the bright sunshine.
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"I like to watch." And I like to wager. Adding these:
THURSDAY 3-BALLS (1* each @ Bet365):
Faxon(+135) over Flesch/Immelman
Izawa(+125) over Cejka/Nicklaus
Flanagan(+450) over Weir/Leonard
Howell(+125) over Price/Lewis
MATCHUPS:
Cabrera(-115) over O'Meara (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes
Montgomerie(-110) over N. Price (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes
- I'm kind of surprised I haven't yet posted a play on Love or Couples.
OUTRIGHTS:
Olazabal(11/1 and 1/5 for Top 4) for Top European for 1* @ Bet365
PROPOSITIONS:
Mickelson Finishing Position Under 7.5(-125) for 1* @ 5dimes
GL
