The National Football League
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
MNF
MNF
Prop:
TEN/DAL TOTAL TDs UNDER 5.5 (+130) 10x
I doubt everyone will be able to find this number or the price at which I got it, but look around at your different outs because I was able to find this just now at my PPH shop. I would play 5.5 at pretty much any price, maybe up to -180. Too much value to pass up a big play on this one. This game should be a slow grind, especially in the first half.
MNF
Prop:
TEN/DAL TOTAL TDs UNDER 5.5 (+130) 10x
I doubt everyone will be able to find this number or the price at which I got it, but look around at your different outs because I was able to find this just now at my PPH shop. I would play 5.5 at pretty much any price, maybe up to -180. Too much value to pass up a big play on this one. This game should be a slow grind, especially in the first half.
I am blown away at how poor the Cowboys blocking has been tonight. Utterly horrific. So many missed opportunities for tackles for loss extra yards allowed after the first hit on the ball carrier. I mean, on that last carry into the end zone by Mariotta, two Dallas defenders put their hands on him and instead of trying to tackle they just pushed him. WTF Dallas? Cost me dearly on the prop. Tonight of all nights they turn in their worst defensive performance of the season at home in prime time. Way get your guys ready, Garrett. Rant over.
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,187
- 365
- 83
- 74
Tough spot for the Saints coming off such a huge game... still tough to see the Bungals actually winning straight up.
If you have access to player props on PIT TE Vance McDonald, I would bet on OVER on receptions, yards and most of all, for him to score a TD. I saw odds of around +260 on that last one. TEs kill the Panthers. I played the following...
PLAYER TO SCORE THE 1ST TD - VANCE MCDONALD (PIT) +1200 1x
PLAYER TO SCORE THE 1ST TD - VANCE MCDONALD (PIT) +1200 1x
My NFL picks and props have been pitiful this year, but this seems like an excellent one to come back with after a little break....
DENVER BRONCOS vs CINCINNATI BENGALS - - Longest field goal made by either team
UNDER 44.5 (-120) 5x
DENVER BRONCOS vs CINCINNATI BENGALS - - Longest field goal made by either team
UNDER 44.5 (-120) 5x
SNF Props
SNF Props
TOTAL UNDER 287?-120 P.RIVERS PASSING YARDS 3x to win 2.5x
TOTAL UNDER 302?-120 B.ROETHLISBERGER PASSING YARDS 3x to win 2.5x
TOTAL u8?EV C.BOSWELL POINTS 1x
The highest passing yard total the Steelers have allowed a QB since their bye is 206 yards and they have not allowed more than 285 yards passing since week 4.
Chargers have only allowed a QB to pass for over 300 yards ONCE all season and that was in week 3 against the Rams.
The Chargers allowed a kicker to score 9 points in ONE game this season and that was week 4 against the 49ers.
SNF Props
TOTAL UNDER 287?-120 P.RIVERS PASSING YARDS 3x to win 2.5x
TOTAL UNDER 302?-120 B.ROETHLISBERGER PASSING YARDS 3x to win 2.5x
TOTAL u8?EV C.BOSWELL POINTS 1x
The highest passing yard total the Steelers have allowed a QB since their bye is 206 yards and they have not allowed more than 285 yards passing since week 4.
Chargers have only allowed a QB to pass for over 300 yards ONCE all season and that was in week 3 against the Rams.
The Chargers allowed a kicker to score 9 points in ONE game this season and that was week 4 against the 49ers.
MNF Props
MNF Props
TOTAL UNDER 27?-125 N.AGHOLOR (PHI) RECEIVING YARDS to win 4x
TOTAL OVER 239?-115 C.MCCOY (WAS) PASSING YARDS 5x
TOTAL OVER 40?-125 J.DOCTSON (WAS) RECEIVING YARDS 4x
TOTAL OVER 62?-115 J.ADAMS (PHI) RUSHING YARDS 5x
I also have a strong lean to the over on Colt McCoy rushing yards at 19.5, but best available to me at the moment is 20.5 with juice, so I will pass for now.
MNF Props
TOTAL UNDER 27?-125 N.AGHOLOR (PHI) RECEIVING YARDS to win 4x
TOTAL OVER 239?-115 C.MCCOY (WAS) PASSING YARDS 5x
TOTAL OVER 40?-125 J.DOCTSON (WAS) RECEIVING YARDS 4x
TOTAL OVER 62?-115 J.ADAMS (PHI) RUSHING YARDS 5x
I also have a strong lean to the over on Colt McCoy rushing yards at 19.5, but best available to me at the moment is 20.5 with juice, so I will pass for now.
ouch. Gonna need Sanchez to connect on at least one or two passes with Doctson now. That long completion to Agholor was another dagger too.
Given the McCoy injury, I'll gladly take a split on the props for -1.75 units. I have to think that had McCoy not been knocked out he would have been better equipped to take advantage of this Eagles secondary riddled with injuries. After all, he was 12.5 yds/att on just four passes, so the trend was there before he limped off. I'll chalk that one up to some bad luck and a bad call on the Agholor prop. I was a bit surprised with his involvement given how he was trending after their acquisition of Tate at WR. I took a hard look at the Wentz over passing yards prop at about 283ish given that the Redskins defense had surrendered 285-plus passing yards in four of its last five games. They have now allowed 265 passing yards or more in 10 straight games and a note will be made to take a hard look at Eli's passing yard total on Sunday, which I hope will be set a little low after last week's tough matchup versus the stout Bears defense.
Week 14
Week 14
Two angles I like early on...
I think GB is a major "play-on" after an embarrassing loss at home and firing their coach. The Westgate look ahead line from the middle of last week was GB-7.5 and I'm not sure what else has changed for either of these teams except that both have been essentially eliminated from the playoffs. The line has moved up from the opener of 5 after the they were reposted on Sunday, but you aren't losing much value between the dead number of 5 and -6, where it sits now. I always love the angle of backing a team in its first game after letting go of their coach. The Packers should be able come out of the McCarthy shadow and play pretty loose in this one. Bottom line, McCarthy's conservative play calling and poor in-game management was holding this team back. Rodgers may be eager to show how the offense was stunted under prior leadership and the ATL defense should be the perfect way to release some of those frustrations, not to mention that GB is playing at home just a week after losing their first home game of the season, providing some added motivation. I don't need to dive too deep into the fact that they also have a dome team coming in to play in temperatures projected to be at 21? at kickoff and feeling like 11? with windchill. Highs in the 4th qtr expected to be at 26? (feels like 20?). This line may not move too much before kickoff, but I already like the number and could see it closing at 7 on Sunday. I will also be looking at a first half play on the side.
GB -6 5x
New Orleans is another team in a good situation, coming into Tampa for a divisional battle off just their 2nd loss of the season, but with the benefit of 10 days rest. Other than the fact that the Saints can clinch the division and move one step closer to a first round playoff bye with a win here, they are playing this one on revenge after the embarrassing week 1 loss where they were 10+ point favorites and got absolutely steamrolled allowing the Bucs hang 48 in the Superdome. There is only one team in this contest with Super Bowl aspirations and I can pretty much guarantee that they have not forgotten about that lackluster start to the season. The ability tease this one down through the two key numbers of 7 and 3 provides an optimal value situation in the advanced stages of season where lines are the tightest. I won't be surprised to see this one creep up past 9 as books aim for "teaser protection" and the parctice reports come out revealing some key injuries in the Tampa Bay secondary. The only drawback in this one for the Saints would be the potential weather, with a light drizzle projected in the mid afternoon.
6-pt Tease: NO-2.5 / GB-pk 5x
Week 14
Two angles I like early on...
I think GB is a major "play-on" after an embarrassing loss at home and firing their coach. The Westgate look ahead line from the middle of last week was GB-7.5 and I'm not sure what else has changed for either of these teams except that both have been essentially eliminated from the playoffs. The line has moved up from the opener of 5 after the they were reposted on Sunday, but you aren't losing much value between the dead number of 5 and -6, where it sits now. I always love the angle of backing a team in its first game after letting go of their coach. The Packers should be able come out of the McCarthy shadow and play pretty loose in this one. Bottom line, McCarthy's conservative play calling and poor in-game management was holding this team back. Rodgers may be eager to show how the offense was stunted under prior leadership and the ATL defense should be the perfect way to release some of those frustrations, not to mention that GB is playing at home just a week after losing their first home game of the season, providing some added motivation. I don't need to dive too deep into the fact that they also have a dome team coming in to play in temperatures projected to be at 21? at kickoff and feeling like 11? with windchill. Highs in the 4th qtr expected to be at 26? (feels like 20?). This line may not move too much before kickoff, but I already like the number and could see it closing at 7 on Sunday. I will also be looking at a first half play on the side.
GB -6 5x
New Orleans is another team in a good situation, coming into Tampa for a divisional battle off just their 2nd loss of the season, but with the benefit of 10 days rest. Other than the fact that the Saints can clinch the division and move one step closer to a first round playoff bye with a win here, they are playing this one on revenge after the embarrassing week 1 loss where they were 10+ point favorites and got absolutely steamrolled allowing the Bucs hang 48 in the Superdome. There is only one team in this contest with Super Bowl aspirations and I can pretty much guarantee that they have not forgotten about that lackluster start to the season. The ability tease this one down through the two key numbers of 7 and 3 provides an optimal value situation in the advanced stages of season where lines are the tightest. I won't be surprised to see this one creep up past 9 as books aim for "teaser protection" and the parctice reports come out revealing some key injuries in the Tampa Bay secondary. The only drawback in this one for the Saints would be the potential weather, with a light drizzle projected in the mid afternoon.
6-pt Tease: NO-2.5 / GB-pk 5x
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Don?t think it will matter for GB. 4, 4.5, 6 ... they cover. Just have to worry about the Saints coming back now.
Adding this...
NYG/WAS UNDER 17 2H 3x
