Things about a game vegas knows

[Billy Blastoff]

2 games yesterday had wrong odds:
NC st +7 should have been +11
ND +3 1/2 should have been +7

I always look for games with a minimum of 3 points in the wrong direction.

I tested it for half a year and have a record of 77% right. Tired of reading all the wrong picks by the scamdycappers.

Picks for 1/24/05:
UNLV -8 should be -2 1/2
College of Charleston -8 1/2 should be -3 1/2

So bet UNLV and C of C, never bet parleys always straight don't win as quick but will win more in longrun.

Long live BILLY BLASTOFF

 

[Bill]

:shrug: I don't get it.

Are you saying that UNLV should be favored by 2 1/2 but since thay are favored by 8 they should be the play? Why?

 

[HoopsGuru]

he's basically saying if the line is off by 3+ pts from what he calculated then he takes that team with the discrepency. if it looks too good to be true it usually is sums up this theory.

 

[fletcher]

Far from a unlv fan, In fact i hate the school since that was how i got here and last coaching job due to choice by the way.

They are a much better team then what you have seen at times, they have let downs and play stupid at times. Still trying to find who they are and get use to LK as a coach.

They were preseason pick by coaches and sports writers to win mtw don't really value many sports writers but coaches I do. This team when on can put up the points and win some games but when they have a mental laps it always bites them .

As year goes on they will pull it together and might win the mtw tourney just watch them because they can bite you both ways and even more at home they might not cover but I had my line at -6 so was not that far off. Just would watch them is all I am saying at home I agree with the other one I have uncg almost took them on the ML.

Good Luck

Eric

 

[caper]

do i have this right?...billy is on charleston-8.5, fletcher is on greensboro+8.5 & likes 'em enough that he considered the ml--yes?
billy is saying vegas purposely skews certain game lines to attract action on who they (vegas) feel will lose, or that's what i think he said...
just looking for clarity, sometimes i'm a little (?) slow...gl, caper

 

[bryanz]

Billy,don't get it ,would love to understand.If UNLV is -8 and you say it should be -2.5. Why bet UNLV?

 

[caper]

bryanz, i THINK what he's saying is that vegas prob has the game capped @ let's say unlv-2.5 like most of us, or in that neighborhood, but thinks they'll win by much more, say 12+, so they set the line @-8.5 to have $ gush in on the dog wyoming...i THINK...gl, caper

 

[Billy Blastoff]

I use a complex system with computer generated spreads, if 50 games are processed maybe 3 or 4 have a 3 point gap. My theory is simple why are these lines off,usually find out key player out, team problems etc. we are not privy to all info but vegas gets alot its there job. So if a line should be 5 and its 10 give the 10 there is a reason for off odds. over 130 games used this year with a 77-78% win percentage. Good luck ill post next 3 weeks to prove im right. :clap:

Billy Blastoff

 

[fletcher]

I thought he took woyming I am on unlv, and uncg, which yes I was thinking about them on ml but c of c has made me some great money over the years and very good cash at home so took the points.

I thought he was on uncg also. had to reread it. I see he is on c of c. so good luck to us in the unlv game.

 

[C-A-T-S]

Nice job with C of C. Good luck with the Rebels.

 

[UT-Longhorn]

looking to go 2-0, great job Billy, played em both! Thanks, keep em coming........

 

[bryanz]

THANKS

 

[Iminforabuck]

Okay.....after reading your theory and analysis, I think you definitely have a good thing going here....and the stats you say you have....if true....obviously back that up. But why did you say you'd post em for the next three weeks? Then you'll dissapear? Or then you'll want money for it?

 

[superbook]

Nice job. :clap:

 

[Billy Blastoff]

Will post till march madness begins. I have found that most systems dont hold true in post season play. So on that note I wont post after regular season.
2 more wins brings my reacord vs spread to 81-27

Picks for 1/25/05

UConn -5 should have been +1
Florida -21 should have been -14

These are my 2 plays for today UCONN & Florida

Remember bet single bets not parleys.
Warning on Georgtown vs st Johns,st Johns was close to being a bet so stay away from Georgetown.

 

[Tupac]

Thanks Billy, gl today.

 

[Bill]

Here is the deal for me. I do not need to understand anyones system: if you are winning :mj11: and posting, I will follow. :mj14:

This stuff ain't complicated for me because I cannot cap so I follow winners.

Time reveals all. There have been many who have come with fanfare and left trying to fan their ass. Hope you are the real deal: there are several on this board.

I took UConn and FL. kurby

Thanks,
Bill

 

[addikted]

Interesting system you have here. Good luck with your picks, I'm on UCONN with you!

GLA

 

[vinnie]

81 - 27 AWESOME :clap:

 

[Trizzle]

Billy, is yours basically the opposite of the theory used by Mistake Finder in his posts?(and other handicappers in general)

Most handicappers seem to figure out what the line should be, then bet it diffenrently than you. For example, if you determined that U Conn SHOULD be +1 but is minus 5 instead, the conventional wisdom would be to bet against U Conn because the line is off by 6 points.

I love it. Goes against the "conventions". Hope the winners keep coming!!! GL