Things about a game vegas knows

[CTown Sports]

81-27 are just numbers, believe them or not it really doesnt matter. He is posting his opinion and its your money to either bet or not bet. Dont make bets based on past records.

Billy- I am very intrigued by your analysis because I have been toying with this idea for about a year now. The only problem I had was finding a system that predicted games. I used mratings in the past but he no longer gives those out for college. Its almost like cracking the code and finding out what Vegas uses for their rankings. Once you know that you can identify, as you have, the games they want money on one side or another. I believe Vegas makes most of their money in these games rather from juice and am really interested in how you come up with spreads for each game. You potentially have a goldmine here.

 

[Trizzle]

Great question CTown, I was wondering the same thing.

 

[Bill]

Bird and Clem, it will only cost us what we are willing to lose. :lol2

Being a bad capper (check out my history, I am like 4-20), I love systems and posters that have a record that I can trust. None of them win all the time but, hey, it is gambling. :teknology

I will be willing to track and try any system: I just will not bet the house. Time is the only test.

Let's give this guy his props, he is 4-0 which is better than most of us. If Billy Blastoff is the real deal, I do not want him going away because some of us start whacking on him. :grouphug: :grouphug:

Again, welcome Billy. Give us another one. :mj14:


Bill

 

[DBLMUTZ]

81-27 are just numbers, believe them or not it really doesnt matter. He is posting his opinion and its your money to either bet or not bet. Dont make bets based on past records


Have to disagree with you C town,81-27 Are great numbers which would mean to this point his system is workin So... believe this!!! it does matter,My point was that its to bad they cant be verified,So.... all my post was meant to say was be careful to our new members,who read 81-27 ,Also to give congrats on a nice start,why ur jumpin on my post is beyond me,Than trying to school me with old but true lines (its your money to either bet or not bet) GL Bill b

 

[Stag]

This is similiar to my "take unranked favorites over the ranked dog" system. (Not my invention, obviosuly.....just my favorite one...which I have added strict rules to)
I LOVE Billy's system.....more plays than mine..........about the same winning percentage.........contrarian.............."Vegas know something" and "the line is telling you something" theory, which is HUGE for me.
I will wager (small amounts) on Billy's posted plays.
However.......I like my system a bit better...........because there is no "capping"..........what I mean is.........words like "SHOULD BE" are non-existent with mine. With Billy's, we are still "predicting" ,so to speak. Only a computer is predicting for us..(even though we ultimately go agaisnt the computer's prediction.
I understand that the computer is not predicting the actual outcomes of games....just what the line should be. Still, I try to stay away from anything or anybody who makes predictions or has opinions on anything.(Like myself...LOL!!!) Except for VEGAS oddmakers of course. They KNOW things...that's their job.

Stag

 

[Franky Wright]

:lol2 :wall: :chew:

 

[Billy Blastoff]

I have followed MJS forum for a short time and see all these horrible picks by so called cappers.(ats,feist and others to name a few ). The reason I started following the posts was to get some idea if the paid pro's :mj07: pick the same games as my system.
Betting is only fun when you pick your own teams,use any advice as hopefully getting a edge and winning some money. Off shore betting accounts make enough lets take back some.

Please just bet games straight not parleys. Its just a big ball trying to go through a small rim.

 

[Billy Blastoff]

With all that said my picks for 1/26 (83-27)

Clemson +2 1/2 should have been +7 1/2
UNC Charlotte -13 1/2 should have been -8
Nebraska -4 should have been +2

Warning 2 lines way off dont bet games
Loiusville -17 1/2 should be -8
Providence -1 should be +8

when line are off by 8 or more the system is very erratic

Todays 3 picks are CLEMSON, CHARLOTTE, and NEBRASKA
Sorry if I tell where I get my numbers from , the dead link might dissapear.

 

[NJHawgFan]

I'm a casual player, small at that...only when I get some extra money burning a hole in my pocket. This time of year from about middle of January until the end of the season are my favorite for playing. I'm a system player who loves the unranked at home favored over a rank, but it doesn't produce daily or sometimes weekly plays.

This system looks very promising, and I rode you blindly on both UConn and Florida last night. I play small. So, I don't lose much or win much, but it's just that thrill that I know everyone is truly in this for, the adrenaline rush. Thanks for continuing to post the plays.

I, too, would love to know your source, but I don't want to mess with a good thing, either. I've found one that I think comes close, but it must not be exact because I found two or three others you didn't list and completely missed the Clemson play.

Good luck to everyone and let's make some $$$ tonight!!

NJ Hawg Fan

 

[Billy Blastoff]

NJ , thats the right idea. If you want to have fun sports betting is a thrill. just so you know others games close to being a bet where:

Maryland +13 1/2
Ohio st -16
Alabama -9
Iowa st+5

However they fell just short and where a no bet

REPEAT THESE ARE NOT A PLAY

THE ONLY PLAYS ARE CLEMSON, UNC CHARLOTTE, AND NEBRASKA

 

[ScreaminPain]

Someone once said "if you wait for a time to come, it's too late"......meaning, of course, that if you wait until everyone agrees with you then it's too late. It's just like shopping for the best line. If you wait too long the advantage is lost.

Billy seems to have something here and he's willing to share....Don't look a gift horse in the mouth!!

 

[ezpickin]

Billy,

Clemson has now moved to +4.5...does that much line movement nullify the play or make it stronger? Thanks and gl on continued success!

 

[Billy Blastoff]

The picks and stats are based on ML numbers. In most cases the line will move in your favor because of the theory that vegas wants bets on the wrong side. In clemsons case they should be a 7 1/2 dog so it makes sense the line will go up. the bet is still clemson +2 1/2 and what you get over that is a bonus. think about how many times you bet with money swings and lost, I would think a few times. Think outside the box. In this case vegas stands to make mucho $ if clemson wins and thats what will happen. Vegas likes money :142hump: Dont let them hump you.

 

[ezpickin]

Totally concur BB with your vegas philosophy in general...just was curious what you had experienced with major line moves on games you like...i think for the most part the lines you have posted on the games you have played have not changed very much...Clem line move is significant...thanks again and bol!

 

[loophole]

i try to take note when others have some success with plays based on line theory, as i'll call it for lack of a better term, since obviously (from my posts) i have been working along a similiar approach.

that being said, not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing (as i have been colder than a welldigger's ass in january) but tonght i come up with unc-c, clemson, sw mo and maryland, with strong leans on ecu and detroit.


edit: also a play on nc state.

 

[Billy Blastoff]

As long as both teams shoot at the same rims pay no attention to the so called smart money. There is no such thing. Some people find out so and so isnt playing and a tidal wave of money floods in. Like a tsunami and we all know nothing good comes from a tsunami. Dont get sweept away.

Please just use my thoughts as a tool to help you win, always bet to enjoy. If you are worried about a outcome dont play the game.

 

[ezpickin]

As long as both teams shoot at the same rims pay no attention to the so called smart money. There is no such thing. Some people find out so and so isnt playing and a tidal wave of money floods in. Like a tsunami and we all know nothing good comes from a tsunami. Dont get sweept away.

Please just use my thoughts as a tool to help you win, always bet to enjoy. If you are worried about a outcome dont play the game.

Should print this and paste it on the wall!

 

[superbook]

A couple of quick thoughts:

1. Since BB's picks tend to be contrarian plays...the best time to put your bet in is probably right before the tip...by example yesterday UConn went from -5 to -4.5 just before gametime...

2. As quick as everyone is to jump on the bandwagon, let's remember to be civil to BB if and when he has a loser or two...he's clearly laid out all of the caveats re: parlays etc.

3. Let's not drive him crazy by asking if it's still a play if it moves a point or two...if you don't like the line movement don't make the bet...

 

[CapstoneAlf]

Billly- nice system, I have used a similar version myself and have found it to work. Keep the hits coming. Rack em tonight on Clemson- it definitely falls under the category of if it looks too good to be true it probably is. Down w/ Vegas.

 

[raiderdude]

From Billy Blastoff "Warning 2 lines way off dont bet games
Loiusville -17 1/2 should be -8
Providence -1 should be +8

***************
That is why I'm on Marquette and BC.
The numbers don't lie.