.............................................................Trizzle said:
this seems like the important part
Things about a game vegas knows
- Thread starter Billy Blastoff
- Start date
this seems like the important part
My omputer doesnt pick the games just gives me what the line should be based on raw data. Found it strang how many lines are exactly as my computer program spits out. Like I said yesterday I only work off early line numbers so spreads may often be diffent when you bet. I dont make the picks LV bookmakers do .
This is very different than what I have ever seen. So, if Team A should be PK and instead is laying 7 or 8 points, we should bet on them? I do the exact opposite since Team B should also be PK and is now getting 7 or 8 points.
would you post some of your most recent losses?
just curious about the outcomes....close or blowouts?
just curious about the outcomes....close or blowouts?
Let me see if I get this...UNLV, in your opinion should have been -2.5, but instead was put out at -8 to attract some action the other way...hence a bet on UNLV.
Ok, UCONN opened at -5, but in your opinion should of been +1, since they are put out at -5 it should create action on WVU, right? I don't see that anywhere. UCONN is the most popular bet on the board from everywhere I have been looking thus far, approximately 75%.
Time will tell and good luck. This is interesting.
jr11
Ok, UCONN opened at -5, but in your opinion should of been +1, since they are put out at -5 it should create action on WVU, right? I don't see that anywhere. UCONN is the most popular bet on the board from everywhere I have been looking thus far, approximately 75%.
Time will tell and good luck. This is interesting.
jr11
Billy,
Interesting angle to approach things, but I have a question about past data if you happen to have it and are willing to share. My question is....
Is say a 7-pt difference in actual vs. computer spreads just as likely to win when the actual point spread is low (say -10 vs. -3 similar to UNLV game yesterday) as opposed to high (-21 vs. -14 in the Florida game today).
Speaking strictly intuitively, I would be willing to bet that the higher the spreads are (assuming the difference stays the same), the lower the chances are of that game covering under your system.
Any feedback would be appreciated.
Interesting angle to approach things, but I have a question about past data if you happen to have it and are willing to share. My question is....
Is say a 7-pt difference in actual vs. computer spreads just as likely to win when the actual point spread is low (say -10 vs. -3 similar to UNLV game yesterday) as opposed to high (-21 vs. -14 in the Florida game today).
Speaking strictly intuitively, I would be willing to bet that the higher the spreads are (assuming the difference stays the same), the lower the chances are of that game covering under your system.
Any feedback would be appreciated.
i would venture that it hits a lot higher when the overlined team does not remain a consensus favorite with the bettors.
there is no difference in the gap between line and
projected line. If difference is geater than 8 I throw out the game something very wrong. and to answer the question about blowouts some of the games that lost where by double digit but that happens with all systems , its still just a ball that has to go threw a small rim.
projected line. If difference is geater than 8 I throw out the game something very wrong. and to answer the question about blowouts some of the games that lost where by double digit but that happens with all systems , its still just a ball that has to go threw a small rim.
Billy
You phuckin rock. Went with you on UCONN and won. FLA came through also! Amazing. keep posting and GL
You phuckin rock. Went with you on UCONN and won. FLA came through also! Amazing. keep posting and GL
Thanks.
I'm 3-0 with you and +5 units. Only reason I didn't take CC yesterday was b/c I saw your post too late.
Keep up the good work.
I'm 3-0 with you and +5 units. Only reason I didn't take CC yesterday was b/c I saw your post too late.
Keep up the good work.
4-0 is fairly convincing. Like the kid watching the cars in the test crash, "Do anotherone Billy Blastoff", and welcome to MJ's.
Bill
Bill
I am a little slower than most of these guys so I need clarification if you will. Do I understand correctly that if the line is off (the gap) by 3-8 points, you take the team teh line seems to be against.
LV line team A is -8 and you computer says it should be -2, you lay the -8.
conversly if the line is -2 and your program says -6, you would take the dog at +2.
Lastly, did I understand that if the line gap was more than 8, it was a no play.
Would appreciate any clarification.
Thank you,
Bill
PS, Have you tried this with the NBA? Does it work?
LV line team A is -8 and you computer says it should be -2, you lay the -8.
conversly if the line is -2 and your program says -6, you would take the dog at +2.
Lastly, did I understand that if the line gap was more than 8, it was a no play.
Would appreciate any clarification.
Thank you,
Bill
PS, Have you tried this with the NBA? Does it work?
come on now...
come on now...
come on now...i'm for a new system to beat our books as much as anyone, but this guy has 5 posts and a posted record of 4-0. we need some time, games, and wins to see if this is for real. I'm not trying to hate on you billy, but I don't want people sucked in and betting their bankroll or anything close to it on a quick streak, i hope it (and you) last, but lets see if this lasts for the long run.
come on now...
come on now...i'm for a new system to beat our books as much as anyone, but this guy has 5 posts and a posted record of 4-0. we need some time, games, and wins to see if this is for real. I'm not trying to hate on you billy, but I don't want people sucked in and betting their bankroll or anything close to it on a quick streak, i hope it (and you) last, but lets see if this lasts for the long run.
I would have to agree with dirty bird,For this is a pretty common occurance here at MjS with new members,It would be awful to see other members taking it up the arse,Due to blind faith,If u had the 81-27 games monitored somewhere that would be great,In no way am i bashing you,For if you were looking from my perspective,And i'm sure you can ,You would agree,Great start,Keep it rollin
