Drew Gordon
1. 200,000♦ Florida
2. 50,000♦ Utah
1. Florida- This is a bad match up for Alabama for a multitude of reasons, but none bigger than their struggles on the road this season, going winless on the SEC trail! One of the first things I look at during tournament play is how a team fared on the road, because usually poor road play translates into poor neutral court play. Granted, the Tide are 2-0 SUATS in neutral court games this season, but if you believe their wins against Missouri State and Iowa State (on neutral courts) count for something, then you don't know basketball.
Fact of the matter is this Alabama team struggled time and again on the road, averaging 69 ppg on 43% shooting, while allowing 75 ppg on 46% shooting away this season. A big part of their road woes was do to the loss of PG Ronald Steele, forcing the Tide to play without their senior floor leader, leaving them vulnerable in high-pressure situations. More of the same tonight, as Brandon Hollinger has been decent as his replacement, but he's nowhere near the playmaker.
Biggest issue for the Tide is match ups, as the Gators have the frontcourt personnel necessary to combat star F Richard Hendrix, who's the heart and soul of this Alabama offense. As good as Hendrix is, Florida F Marreese Speights is just as good if not better. True, Hendrix dominated their only match up this season, despite the fact the Gators won and covered in Alabama. However, I'd be willing to bet that Speights has been praying for another crack at Hendrix, and tonight, he'll get his chance. Don't sleep on F Dan Werner either, as he's been rock-solid alongside Speights this season.
Where the Gators really start to have an edge is in the backcourt, as Calathes, Hodge and Lucas would all start and post better numbers than any Tide guard on the Alabama roster. Not only has Calathes been named SEC Co-Freshmen of the Year, but both Hodge and Lucas proved in their last meeting with Alabama that the Tide guards cannot cover them, combining for 36 points on 11 for 17 shooting (6 for 8 from beyond the arc)! If they can get it done in Alabama, there's little reason to believe they can't get it done in Atlanta.
Finally, examing the number on this contest, I strongly believe the Gators come into this game undervalued. Yes, they lost their last 3 games SUATS, but look at the competition before you write them off - against a solid Mississippi State team, Tennessee (speaks for itself), and at Kentucky - all tough contests, that would've hand losses to most teams in the country. Look guys, its clear that Florida needs to make some real noise in the SEC tourney to go Dancing, and thanks to their recent losses, they not only must win, but we're also getting a reasonable price on this contest. Florida rolls!
Take Florida comfortably over Alabama as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Utah- Look guys, I've ridden this New Mexico team to some nice paydays over the last month or so, where the Lobos have gone 8-1 ATS over their last 9 games. However, since I'm obviously siding with Utah, there must be something about the Utes that has me changing course. That "something" is the two fold:
First, I believe the number on this contest screams: "Please Mr. Uninformed Bettor take New Mexico!" Guys, the fact of the matter is Utah has played the Lobos razor close in 4 straight meetings, including 3 of those 4 going into overtime! Their most recent meeting was a 72-71 New Mexico win in Salt Lake City, setting the stage for a double-revenge effort tonight in Las Vegas.
Second, unless you watched the Utes this season, their 16-13 record can be extremely deceiving. They may have lost 13 games, but they sure as hell didn't play like it... 6 of their 7 losses came in the final 2 minutes, while another 2 losses came in OT, including the one to New Mexico back on January 22nd. In other words, this Utes team is better than 16-13, and their only chance to prove it will be tonight against the Lobos.
Finally, the one trend that stands out above all the rest is the fact the underdog is 10-4-1 ATS over their last 15 meetings... What does that tell you? Exactly what I've been saying all along, these games are razor close, with the underdog having every chance of covering late! You can expect more of the same tonight, as New Mexico wasn't nearly as good away from the Pit this season, and will be facing a highly-motivated Utah team hell-bent on revenge and earning some respect.
Take Utah plus the points over New Mexico in this MWC Quarterfinals showdown.
Early Games...
1. 50,000♦ Louisiana State
2. 50,000♦ Miami-Florida
1. Louisiana State- Despite struggling for a good chunk of the season, its clear this Louisiana State team is rolling right now, 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS over their last 5 games! Their struggles weren't due to a lack of talent, but more so a conservative system run by ex-coach John Brady. With interim coach Butch Pierre letting his boys run-and-gun, the Tigers have finally found a system that fits their young, but very talented personnel, averaging 80 ppg on 47% shooting over their last 5!
Herein lies the problem for South Carolina, as the Tigers have progressed, the Gamecocks have regressed, losing 4 of their last 5 SUATS, including a 62-55 loss at home to LSU back on February 27th. Gamecocks will never be confused with an offensive juggernaut, but lately its gotten real bad, scoring just 59 ppg on 37% shooting over their last 5 games... Just how in the hell do you expect them to keep pace with this Tigers offense when they can't break 60?!
We learned a lot from their last meeting, but most importantly, was the fact the Gamecocks had no answer for bigmen Randolph (20 points 10 boards) or Johnson (13 points, 10 boards, 6 blocks). Nothing has changed in 2+ weeks since that meeting, and there's little reason to expect anything but solid games from the LSU frontcourt, which is a big problem for South Carolina because that's not even their # 1 weapon. Their # 1 weapon is Marcus Thornton, who's averaging 34 ppg over his last 3 games, and with his frontcourt surging in this match up, he'll be free dominate the perimeter (38 points 6-12 from 3-point against a rock-solid Mississippi State defense in his last one).
Bottom line, South Carolina is in no condition to battle a surging Louisiana State team in this opening round SEC match up. Tigers just beat the Gamecocks on their own court a couple weeks ago, and now on a neutral court, the disparity between these two teams really stands out. Gamecocks have no answer for the Tigers frontline, and good luck stopping a red-hot Thornton on the perimeter as well! Long story short, Tigers roll in this match up!
Take Louisiana State over South Carolina in this SEC Tourney First Round match up.
2. Miami-Florida- Hurricanes are playing great basketball of late, but are coming off a tough loss to rival Florida State, which immediately puts their NCAA Tourney status in jeopardy... Exactly the kind of motivation you want to take advantage of coming into the conference tournament. In other words, most analysts agree that Miami will have to make some noise in the ACC tourney or risk falling out of favor with the Selection Committee, and coming out flat this afternoon is NOT an option.
Enter N.C. State, a team struggling mightily, losers of 8 in a row SU & 7 of those 8 ATS. They blew their wad trying to beat Duke, resulting in a nice cover, but don't be fooled, as other than that the Wolfpack has been more of a "Terrier-pack" over the last month or so! Biggest reason for the fall is defense or lack thereof, allowing a mind-boggling 79 ppg on 45% shooting over their last 5 games!
As if the 'Canes needed more motivation, let's not forget there's some payback in order this afternoon for the Wolfpack, who beat Miami 79-77 in Raleigh back on January 19th, before N.C. State collpased. The Wolfpack are different team this time around, as the losses have mounted, their confidence and effort has dropped off considerbaly. Miami on the other hand, cannot afford anything but a "max-effort" in this one.
Finally, looking over their last meeting, its clear this Hurricanes team has progressed since then. In that game, Miami dominated the boards (42-28 rebounding margin), but got little from Dwayne Collins or Brian Asbury... Two of their best frontline players. Collins was key in Miami's win over Duke and Asbury gives the 'Canes an excellent 3-point threat (40% from 3-point). We know Jack McClinton will lead the show, but its Miami's deep frontcourt that makes the difference in this one.
Bottom line, with an NCAA tourney bid and revenge in play this afternoon, look for a highly-motivated Hurricanes squad to put this Wolfpack team out of its misery in this one. Miami is playing better on both ends of the court, not to mention their strong edge in the paint (on the boards) thanks to their frontline depth. In the end, Miami advances, winning and covering against a sputtering N.C. State team.
Take Miami-Florida comfortably over N.C. State in this ACC Opening Round match up.
