Thursday Service Plays 4/10
- Thread starter Al Kaline
- Start date
LT Profits
Kansas City Royals (140)
Thu Apr 10 '08 8:10p
The surprising Kansas City Royals look to complete the three-game sweep of the mighty New York Yankees tonight, and at this price at home, they seem like a nice investment to do just that.
The Royals are now 6-2 after taking the first two games of this series, and since they were a slight favorite in one of their losses, they are an amazing 6-1 in this underdog role, upsetting the Detroit Tigers three times, the Yankees twice and the Minnesota Twins once.
The Royals are hitting .270 as a team, and when you combined that with their sparkling 2.25 team ERA, it is easy to see why they are off to their hot start. For comparative purposes, the Yanks are batting just .244 with a 3.99 team ERA. Now today?s Royals pitcher, left-hander John Bale, had probably the worst outing of any Royals starter this year, but he should be helped by the fact that the Bronx Bombers are batting just .225 vs. southpaws in the early going. He also has the support of what has been an outstanding Kansas City bullpen so far, with a collective 0.67 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over 27 innings!
The 4-5 Yankees have simply not been hitting, scoring three runs or less seven of their nine games and a grand total of two runs over the first two games of this series. Also, their starter Andy Pettitte did not pitch well in his seasonal debut, allowing five runs and 10 baserunners in just five innings of a 6-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. Unfortunately, slow starts are nothing new for Andy, as his teams are now 4-13 in his last 17 April outings.
We look for the Kansas City magic and for the lethargic Yankees play to continue for one more day with this nice underdog price tag on Kansas City.
Royals +140
Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks u199.5 (-110)
Thu Apr 10 '08 8:35p
It must be NBA Playoffs time, because both the Utah Jazz and the Dallas Mavericks have been stressing defense lately.
The Under is 4-1 in the last five Dallas games, with the Mavericks holding three of those opponents under 90 points and the run-and-gun Phoenix Suns to 98. In fact, the Mavs have looks more like the San Antonio Spurs defensively lately, uncharacteristically limiting those last five opponents to just 41.6 percent shooting from the floor.
As for the Jazz, all that they have done is hold their last two opponents in the 60s on a combined 51 for 140, 36.4 percent shooting. Most impressive is that fact that it was the normally potent New Orleans Hornets that the Jazz held to a season-low 66 points on Tuesday. We look for a third straight concerted defensive effort tonight, as Utah has yet to wrap up home court advantage in the first round despite already clinching their division.
Now the Mavericks may not be held below 70 tonight, but we still look for a safe Under here with this game being played in the 180s.
Jazz,/Mavericks Under 199.5
Kansas City Royals (140)
Thu Apr 10 '08 8:10p
The surprising Kansas City Royals look to complete the three-game sweep of the mighty New York Yankees tonight, and at this price at home, they seem like a nice investment to do just that.
The Royals are now 6-2 after taking the first two games of this series, and since they were a slight favorite in one of their losses, they are an amazing 6-1 in this underdog role, upsetting the Detroit Tigers three times, the Yankees twice and the Minnesota Twins once.
The Royals are hitting .270 as a team, and when you combined that with their sparkling 2.25 team ERA, it is easy to see why they are off to their hot start. For comparative purposes, the Yanks are batting just .244 with a 3.99 team ERA. Now today?s Royals pitcher, left-hander John Bale, had probably the worst outing of any Royals starter this year, but he should be helped by the fact that the Bronx Bombers are batting just .225 vs. southpaws in the early going. He also has the support of what has been an outstanding Kansas City bullpen so far, with a collective 0.67 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over 27 innings!
The 4-5 Yankees have simply not been hitting, scoring three runs or less seven of their nine games and a grand total of two runs over the first two games of this series. Also, their starter Andy Pettitte did not pitch well in his seasonal debut, allowing five runs and 10 baserunners in just five innings of a 6-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. Unfortunately, slow starts are nothing new for Andy, as his teams are now 4-13 in his last 17 April outings.
We look for the Kansas City magic and for the lethargic Yankees play to continue for one more day with this nice underdog price tag on Kansas City.
Royals +140
Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks u199.5 (-110)
Thu Apr 10 '08 8:35p
It must be NBA Playoffs time, because both the Utah Jazz and the Dallas Mavericks have been stressing defense lately.
The Under is 4-1 in the last five Dallas games, with the Mavericks holding three of those opponents under 90 points and the run-and-gun Phoenix Suns to 98. In fact, the Mavs have looks more like the San Antonio Spurs defensively lately, uncharacteristically limiting those last five opponents to just 41.6 percent shooting from the floor.
As for the Jazz, all that they have done is hold their last two opponents in the 60s on a combined 51 for 140, 36.4 percent shooting. Most impressive is that fact that it was the normally potent New Orleans Hornets that the Jazz held to a season-low 66 points on Tuesday. We look for a third straight concerted defensive effort tonight, as Utah has yet to wrap up home court advantage in the first round despite already clinching their division.
Now the Mavericks may not be held below 70 tonight, but we still look for a safe Under here with this game being played in the 180s.
Jazz,/Mavericks Under 199.5
John Ryan
Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks (NBA) - Apr 10, 2008 8:35 PM EDT
Play:Over 199
Ai Simulator 3* graded play OVER Dallas/Utah. AiS shows a 72% probability that both teams will score 100 point s each and also a 74% probability that 200 or more points will be scored in this game. More or less a self fulfilling prophesy, but Utah is 30-5 OVER where both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season; 22-3 OVER where both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. Point is that the AiS is projecting that both teams will score 100 or more points and that there is a foundation of support between the two teams supporting the OVER play. Dallas is a strong ball handling team and Utah is 33-19 OVER in road games versus good ball handling teams that are committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER.
Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks (NBA) - Apr 10, 2008 8:35 PM EDT
Play:Over 199
Ai Simulator 3* graded play OVER Dallas/Utah. AiS shows a 72% probability that both teams will score 100 point s each and also a 74% probability that 200 or more points will be scored in this game. More or less a self fulfilling prophesy, but Utah is 30-5 OVER where both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season; 22-3 OVER where both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. Point is that the AiS is projecting that both teams will score 100 or more points and that there is a foundation of support between the two teams supporting the OVER play. Dallas is a strong ball handling team and Utah is 33-19 OVER in road games versus good ball handling teams that are committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER.
Handicappers Paradise
Handicappers Paradise
Hey fellas Josh Dean just released this new system that is sick.... Please read up and post his picks if I can't get to them. As of right now its free. With work and what not sometimes its hard to get his 4-bet smash and all his picks on here to share. Thanks Mucho!
Josh Dean
A.P. SYSTEM
This great MLB discovery revolutionized by yours truley went up 78.6 UNITS last year in MLB!!!!!!!!!!! I kid you not. This system you will find you'll lose more than you win, but who cares when your up 78.6 units right!?!? If you follow my system from start to finish you'll be up to at least $40,000 just by starting out at $100 a bet! General rule of mine is never wager more than 10% of bankroll. Must have $1,000 for bank roll to get started. Its all yours, go ahead and test it if you'd like fellas but I'm telling you, the more you wait and see, the more upset you'll be at yourself that you didn't start from the beginning. I have won you so much money thus far, and have so many profitable systems its sick. You have to trust me on this one.
7 Days=1 Bet
Yesterday: Win
Today: 1 Unit on San Fran +125
Record: 1-0
TOTAL UNITS PROFIT: +1.1
Handicappers Paradise
Hey fellas Josh Dean just released this new system that is sick.... Please read up and post his picks if I can't get to them. As of right now its free. With work and what not sometimes its hard to get his 4-bet smash and all his picks on here to share. Thanks Mucho!
Josh Dean
A.P. SYSTEM
This great MLB discovery revolutionized by yours truley went up 78.6 UNITS last year in MLB!!!!!!!!!!! I kid you not. This system you will find you'll lose more than you win, but who cares when your up 78.6 units right!?!? If you follow my system from start to finish you'll be up to at least $40,000 just by starting out at $100 a bet! General rule of mine is never wager more than 10% of bankroll. Must have $1,000 for bank roll to get started. Its all yours, go ahead and test it if you'd like fellas but I'm telling you, the more you wait and see, the more upset you'll be at yourself that you didn't start from the beginning. I have won you so much money thus far, and have so many profitable systems its sick. You have to trust me on this one.
7 Days=1 Bet
Yesterday: Win
Today: 1 Unit on San Fran +125
Record: 1-0
TOTAL UNITS PROFIT: +1.1
Last edited:
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Drew Gordon Write Ups
Today's Games...
1. 200,000♦ Jazz
2. 50,000♦ Pirates
3. 50,000♦ Cardinals
1. Jazz- Basketball is a game of streaks. Sometimes a good team will run cold, and we fade them. Other times, a good team runs hot, and then alarm bells start ringing to jump on the bandwagon. Utah falls in the latter category, crushing San Antonio and New Orleans in back-to-back games, but the difference here is that they didn't do it with offense, but instead with outstanding defense. Utah has always been more proficient on the offensive end, but if they can lock down elite teams like they have in their last two, they become infinitely more dangerous.
Anyone who's seen these two teams play, knows they can score in bunches, with both squads averaging about 103 ppg over their last 5 games. However, clearly the difference is defense, as the Jazz are allowing just 79 ppg over their last 4 games! When Boozer, Williams, and Okur can go a combined 16 for 45, and the Jazz still win by 11, in New Orleans no less, that's saying a lot!
Critics of this play will argue that the Mavericks have more to play for, sitting in the 7th seed, up 2 games from the 8th, with 4 games remaining, but I disagree. The Jazz are playing for playoff position, and are just 2 games back from the 2nd seed with a game against San Antonio in the regular season finale. Not only that, but barring a complete collapse, the Mavericks are set, with games against some pretty weak competition still on their schedule, including at Portland (who's struggling) and at Seattle (who's terrible).
Bottom line, the one knock against Utah has been their defensive effort on the road, but they answered a lot of questions by shutting down Chris Paul and his Hornets in New Orleans Tuesday. Look for them to build off that game with another impressive effort tonight in Dallas. Utah may not win the game (it wouldn't surprise me if they did), but they sure as hell will keep it close enough to cover.
Take the Jazz plus the points over the Mavericks as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Pirates- It took 27 innings for the Cubs to take the first two games of this series, and try as they might to complete the sweep tonight, I say the Pirates and Matt Morris protect their house in this one and here's why:
While Morris was far from impressive in his season debut against the Marlins, allowing 3 earned on 8 hits over 5 innings, he has had plenty of success against the Cubbies in the past, going 12-8 with a 4.50 ERA. In fact, going back a couple years, when he was a member of the Cardinals, he dominated Chicago, going 10-2 with 3.18 ERA. Look for Morris to recapture some of that old magic tonight, especially considering the way the Pirates offense is producing.
Speaking of the Pirates batting order, scoring runs hasn't been a problem, with 46 scored so far this season, good for 4th in the N.L.. And when you consider that was done largely without the help of Bay or Laroche, both of which finally got in on the action yesterday, it makes those 46 runs even more impressive.
Rich Hill gets the start for the Cubs, and unlike the Pirates, run support has already started to become an issue for the talented southpaw. Last season he received the 2nd lowest run support in the Majors, and the fact that it became an issue in his very first start of this season has to be frustrating. He pitched a solid game against the Astros (allowing 2 runs over 6 innings), but the Cubs eventually lost 4-3, costing him the decision. Note the last time he pitched in Pittsburgh, he got rocked for 6 runs on 9 hits over 6 innings.
Bottom line, look for Pittsburgh to avoid the sweep, as they've pushed this Cubs team to extra innings twice and come up short, but tonight, they get the job done behind Morris. As mentioned above, Hill has had his troubles in Pittsburgh, and with the Pirates batting order swinging the bats well, he could easily find himself in trouble once again tonight.
Take the Pirates behind Morris over the Chicago Cubs and Hill in this MLB match up.
3. Cardinals- Redbirds are favored here for a reason, but let's start with their strong play out of the gate, winning 7 of their last 8 games, thanks in large part to some rock-solid starting pitching, posting a combined 1.99 ERA so far this season! One of the pitchers who's contributed to that lockdown ERA is Adam Wainwirght, who gets the start tonight.
Wainwright first start of the season was excellent, limiting the Nationals to 2 runs on 8 hits over 8 solid innings of work. We've seen the Cardinals big righty really progress since last year's All-Star Break, posting a 2.71 ERA after that point, and now comes into this season looking even sharper. Forget about his 1-0 record with a 4.91 ERA in 2 career relief appearances against the Giants, as he's a much better pitcher at this point in his career, and San Fran will find that out the hard way in this one.
Speaking of San Fran, there isn't much positive to say about their efforts this season. They rank last or close to last in almost every important offensive category there is, while their starting pitchers have posted a below average 4.70 ERA thus far this season. For as good as Wainwright has been, the Giants batting order could find themselves struggling once again tonight, as they're batting only .220 on the season, while scoring a Major League low 20 runs.
Finally, not too impressed with Kevin Correia, who gets the start for the Giants tonight. He was decent against the Brewers, despite suffering from a stomach virus, but that's not where the criticism ends. In fact, Correia has had trouble against the Redbirds in the past, going 0-1 with 5.14 ERA in 7 careers outings (1 start) against them. Again, he's decent, but considering the Cardinals edge with Wainwright, and their edge at the plate (batting over 40 percentage points higher - .262 and scoring almost twice as many runs - 39) look for the Cardinals to get their 8th win in their last 9 games tonight at AT&T Park.
Take the Cardinals behind Wainwright over the Giants and Correia in late MLB action.
Today's Games...
1. 200,000♦ Jazz
2. 50,000♦ Pirates
3. 50,000♦ Cardinals
1. Jazz- Basketball is a game of streaks. Sometimes a good team will run cold, and we fade them. Other times, a good team runs hot, and then alarm bells start ringing to jump on the bandwagon. Utah falls in the latter category, crushing San Antonio and New Orleans in back-to-back games, but the difference here is that they didn't do it with offense, but instead with outstanding defense. Utah has always been more proficient on the offensive end, but if they can lock down elite teams like they have in their last two, they become infinitely more dangerous.
Anyone who's seen these two teams play, knows they can score in bunches, with both squads averaging about 103 ppg over their last 5 games. However, clearly the difference is defense, as the Jazz are allowing just 79 ppg over their last 4 games! When Boozer, Williams, and Okur can go a combined 16 for 45, and the Jazz still win by 11, in New Orleans no less, that's saying a lot!
Critics of this play will argue that the Mavericks have more to play for, sitting in the 7th seed, up 2 games from the 8th, with 4 games remaining, but I disagree. The Jazz are playing for playoff position, and are just 2 games back from the 2nd seed with a game against San Antonio in the regular season finale. Not only that, but barring a complete collapse, the Mavericks are set, with games against some pretty weak competition still on their schedule, including at Portland (who's struggling) and at Seattle (who's terrible).
Bottom line, the one knock against Utah has been their defensive effort on the road, but they answered a lot of questions by shutting down Chris Paul and his Hornets in New Orleans Tuesday. Look for them to build off that game with another impressive effort tonight in Dallas. Utah may not win the game (it wouldn't surprise me if they did), but they sure as hell will keep it close enough to cover.
Take the Jazz plus the points over the Mavericks as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Pirates- It took 27 innings for the Cubs to take the first two games of this series, and try as they might to complete the sweep tonight, I say the Pirates and Matt Morris protect their house in this one and here's why:
While Morris was far from impressive in his season debut against the Marlins, allowing 3 earned on 8 hits over 5 innings, he has had plenty of success against the Cubbies in the past, going 12-8 with a 4.50 ERA. In fact, going back a couple years, when he was a member of the Cardinals, he dominated Chicago, going 10-2 with 3.18 ERA. Look for Morris to recapture some of that old magic tonight, especially considering the way the Pirates offense is producing.
Speaking of the Pirates batting order, scoring runs hasn't been a problem, with 46 scored so far this season, good for 4th in the N.L.. And when you consider that was done largely without the help of Bay or Laroche, both of which finally got in on the action yesterday, it makes those 46 runs even more impressive.
Rich Hill gets the start for the Cubs, and unlike the Pirates, run support has already started to become an issue for the talented southpaw. Last season he received the 2nd lowest run support in the Majors, and the fact that it became an issue in his very first start of this season has to be frustrating. He pitched a solid game against the Astros (allowing 2 runs over 6 innings), but the Cubs eventually lost 4-3, costing him the decision. Note the last time he pitched in Pittsburgh, he got rocked for 6 runs on 9 hits over 6 innings.
Bottom line, look for Pittsburgh to avoid the sweep, as they've pushed this Cubs team to extra innings twice and come up short, but tonight, they get the job done behind Morris. As mentioned above, Hill has had his troubles in Pittsburgh, and with the Pirates batting order swinging the bats well, he could easily find himself in trouble once again tonight.
Take the Pirates behind Morris over the Chicago Cubs and Hill in this MLB match up.
3. Cardinals- Redbirds are favored here for a reason, but let's start with their strong play out of the gate, winning 7 of their last 8 games, thanks in large part to some rock-solid starting pitching, posting a combined 1.99 ERA so far this season! One of the pitchers who's contributed to that lockdown ERA is Adam Wainwirght, who gets the start tonight.
Wainwright first start of the season was excellent, limiting the Nationals to 2 runs on 8 hits over 8 solid innings of work. We've seen the Cardinals big righty really progress since last year's All-Star Break, posting a 2.71 ERA after that point, and now comes into this season looking even sharper. Forget about his 1-0 record with a 4.91 ERA in 2 career relief appearances against the Giants, as he's a much better pitcher at this point in his career, and San Fran will find that out the hard way in this one.
Speaking of San Fran, there isn't much positive to say about their efforts this season. They rank last or close to last in almost every important offensive category there is, while their starting pitchers have posted a below average 4.70 ERA thus far this season. For as good as Wainwright has been, the Giants batting order could find themselves struggling once again tonight, as they're batting only .220 on the season, while scoring a Major League low 20 runs.
Finally, not too impressed with Kevin Correia, who gets the start for the Giants tonight. He was decent against the Brewers, despite suffering from a stomach virus, but that's not where the criticism ends. In fact, Correia has had trouble against the Redbirds in the past, going 0-1 with 5.14 ERA in 7 careers outings (1 start) against them. Again, he's decent, but considering the Cardinals edge with Wainwright, and their edge at the plate (batting over 40 percentage points higher - .262 and scoring almost twice as many runs - 39) look for the Cardinals to get their 8th win in their last 9 games tonight at AT&T Park.
Take the Cardinals behind Wainwright over the Giants and Correia in late MLB action.
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
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BURNS
HOCKEY
UNDER montreal/boston
Game: Boston Bruins vs. Montreal Canadiens Game Time: 4/10/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: under . *Blue Chip
BEN BURNS
BASEBALL
TAMPA BAY
I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY. *Getaway Day GOM
TEXAS (game 1)
Game: Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers Game Time: 4/10/2008 2:10:00 PM Prediction: Texas Rangers . *Personal Favorite
BURNS
HOCKEY
UNDER montreal/boston
Game: Boston Bruins vs. Montreal Canadiens Game Time: 4/10/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: under . *Blue Chip
BEN BURNS
BASEBALL
TAMPA BAY
I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY. *Getaway Day GOM
TEXAS (game 1)
Game: Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers Game Time: 4/10/2008 2:10:00 PM Prediction: Texas Rangers . *Personal Favorite
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
INDIAN COWBOY
Reds -106 (POD)
Winning 4 Days in a Row (2-1 Yesterday: Magic POD - 20 point ATS winner yesterday and the Giants/Padres Under 8.5 - 1 total run was scored).
This Week: 7-3 (70%)
POD Run
Winning 9 of 12 (75%) NBA POD's
Winning 11 of 15 POD (73%) Overall +17 Units
Great April Underway: 21-14-1 (60): +23.00 Units
Last Week: +10.48 Units, 34.93% Return of Investment (ROI%)
32-22 Last 32 Days (60%) (+40 Units All Sports)(Including many ML dogs)
Nearly always I prefer to do the POD in NBA as compared to baseball, but I don't like the NBA card too much but nearly took the Lakers on the road against the Clippers on a bounce-back. However, I will gladly take the Reds with their ace on the mound here at this price against Villa of the Brewers. The Brewers are a solid team and a great contact hitting team and they come off a pounding by the Reds last night. Having said that though, the Reds bats can explode especially against young pitchers, don't forget Villa gave up 8 hits in 5 inns and that was against the poor hitting Giants, opponents are batting .385 against Villa and Harang looks for his first win. I'll take the ace, with a solid offense looking for his first win today against a newbie that frankly was a bit fortunate against the Giants. Reds are 15-3 in Harang's last 18 road starts and Harang is 10-1 when the total is set at this range.
Reds -106 (POD)
Winning 4 Days in a Row (2-1 Yesterday: Magic POD - 20 point ATS winner yesterday and the Giants/Padres Under 8.5 - 1 total run was scored).
This Week: 7-3 (70%)
POD Run
Winning 9 of 12 (75%) NBA POD's
Winning 11 of 15 POD (73%) Overall +17 Units
Great April Underway: 21-14-1 (60): +23.00 Units
Last Week: +10.48 Units, 34.93% Return of Investment (ROI%)
32-22 Last 32 Days (60%) (+40 Units All Sports)(Including many ML dogs)
Nearly always I prefer to do the POD in NBA as compared to baseball, but I don't like the NBA card too much but nearly took the Lakers on the road against the Clippers on a bounce-back. However, I will gladly take the Reds with their ace on the mound here at this price against Villa of the Brewers. The Brewers are a solid team and a great contact hitting team and they come off a pounding by the Reds last night. Having said that though, the Reds bats can explode especially against young pitchers, don't forget Villa gave up 8 hits in 5 inns and that was against the poor hitting Giants, opponents are batting .385 against Villa and Harang looks for his first win. I'll take the ace, with a solid offense looking for his first win today against a newbie that frankly was a bit fortunate against the Giants. Reds are 15-3 in Harang's last 18 road starts and Harang is 10-1 when the total is set at this range.
Write ups
Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: What's wrong with the Yanks and is it about time to "break up the Royals?" The Yankees led all of MLB with a .290 team BA last year, while scoring a ML-high 968 runs. However, after nine games (4-5 start), the Yanks are batting just .244, while scoring an AL-low 25 runs (2.8 per), which is more than only the Giants (who have scored just 20 runs in nine games) in all of MLB (30 teams). As for KC, perennial "bottom feeders" in the AL, the Royals are off to a 6-2 start and are MLB's biggest "moneymakers" so far, at plus-$690 ($100/game). The Royals are doing it with pitching, as they own the best team ERA in the majors at 2.25, which includes a spectacular 0.82 ERA by KC's bullpen! All this from the team which followed its 83-79 season in 2003 with three straight 100-loss seasons (310 combined losses), before going 69-93 last year. All right, already! It looks as if Derek Jeter will sit out his third straight game with a sore thigh for New York and catcher Posada may miss as well but I'm backing Andy Pettitte. Pettitte was not sharp in his '08 debut last Saturday, allowing eight hits and five runs (three ERs) in five innings of a 6-3 loss to Tampa Bay. However, here's some numbers he'll likely not "misremember!" In 17 career starts against the Royals, the veteran lefty has gone 11-3 with a 3.15 ERA, while his team has won 13 of the 17 games. In his last eight starts against KC, he's 6-0 with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 35-3! The Royals will counter with lefty, John Bale. Bale accomplished little in the majors from 1999-2003 playing for three teams and then spent three seasons in Japan. He was signed by the Royals before last year but spent the first half of the season on the DL. He wound up making 26 appearances in '07 (all in relief), going 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA. Now KC has some good young pitchers but this guy is NOT one of them! In his '08 debut (Friday at Minnesota), he allowed 10 hits and four ERs in 6.1 innings of a 4-3 loss. Look for the Yankee bats to 'wake up' vs Bale and for Pettitte to be his"usual self" vs the Royals. Pitching Mismatch of the Week on the NY Yankees (6*).
Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: With Atlanta likely to make the playoffs in the East with a sub-.500 record, one can only imagine the frustration felt by the Nuggets and Warriors, who both enter this game at 47-31, knowing that one of them will likely be left out of the West's playoff 'picture." Golden State ended a 12-year playoff drought last year, sneaking into the postseason with a 42-20 record (which included a pathetic 12-29 road mark). It's seems rather ironic that the Warriors, who are so much better this year at 47-31 (that's a .603 winning percentage compared to LY's .512), could actually find themselves "sitting home" next weekend. The Warriors have dramatically improved on the road this season (21-19) but have not played at as well at home (26-12 so far), especially ATS (14-24)! Despite its poor ATS mark at home, I'm backing the Warriors in this one, as Denver is no bargain on the road (16-23 SU and 18-21 ATS). The Nuggets still depend too much on Iverson (26.3-7.3 APG) and Carmelo (26.1-7.4) and certainly have shown some real weakness lately, losing back-to-back games at home to Sacramento on Saturday (118-115 as 13 1/2-point favorites) and at Seattle on Sunday (151-147 in OT as 12 1/2-point favorites). A 117-99 win in LA over the pathetic Clippers is hardly a "buy signal!" The Nuggets rank No. 2 in scoring (110.7) and 29th in PPG allowed (106.9), while the Warriors are No. 1 scoring (110.8) and 30th in PPG allowed (108.3), so this will NOT be a defensive battle. As I've said many times, Camby's (9.3-13.3) reputation as a great defensive player is a pure myth (he was voted defensive P-O-Y last season), as the reason he makes so many blocks is, that opponents are NOT afraid to challenge him! The Warriors have a terrific perimeter group in Davis (22.0-4.7-7.6), Ellis (20.1-4.9-3.8) and swingman Jackson (20.1-4.4-4.1). While Ellis is more of a jump-shooter, both Davis and Jackson will "take it to the hole" vs Camby and the Nuggets. Inside, Harrington (13.7-5.5) and Biedrins 910.3-9.5) have both had solid seasons, with Azubuike (8.6-4.0), Barnes (6.8-4.5) and the now healthy Pietrus (7.1) adding excellent frontcourt depth. These teams met March 29 at Denver in a game which saw many ebbs and flows. Denver held on for a seven-point win and it's Golden State's 'turn' here, although I believe the margin will be closer to 15 points. TV Game of the Week on the GS Warriors (6*).
REASON FOR PICK: The Blue Jays caught a "tired" Boston Red Sox team last weekend in Toronto, sweeping a three-game series from the defending champs. If Toronto thought that the A's, who opened the season against the Red Sox with a two-game set in Japan on March 25 and 26, would also be "tired," they were wrong. In fact, the A's have won back-to-back games in Toronto the last two days, both times winning in the ninth! However, expect the Blue Jays to bounce back tonight. The A's will send lefty Dana Eveland to mound, while Toronto will counter with Shaun Marcum. Eveland made 27 relief appearances fro Milwaukee in 2005 and then the last two years (one with Milwaukee and the other with Arizona ), made just 14 appearances (six starts). He entered this season with a career mark of 3-3 and an ERA of 7.55. He looked very sharp in his 2008 debut, allowing six hits and just one ER (seven innings) in beating the Indians last Saturday (in Oakland). However, he's on the road here, vs a team that DOMINATED lefties in the Rogers Centre last year, going 18-5, including 15-3 at night. Shaun Marcum began last season in the bullpen for the Jays but was given his first stat on May 13. He never left the rotation. He finished the season with a 12-6 (4.13) record in 38 appearances. That included 25 starts, in which the Jays went 15-10 and Marcum posted a 3.91 ERA. Marcum faced the A's once last year and it wasn't pretty, as he allowed nine hits and six ERs in just three innings. However, this is a confident pitcher who pitched very well for the Jays last season, after gaining a regular spot in the rotation. He opened the '08 season with a solid effort in beating the Red Sox last Friday (7 IP / 3 hits / 3 ERs) and I see no reason for him not to pitch well here. Expect the Jays to avoid the dreaded "home sweep" here, as they make life awfully tough on Eveland, an unproven young lefty. Las Vegas Insider on the Tor Blue Jays (8*).