Write Ups
HOCKEY
UNDER montreal/boston
Game: Boston Bruins vs. Montreal Canadiens Game Time: 4/10/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Montreal and Boston to finish UNDER the number. These teams played several high-scoring games against each other this season. However, the most recent meeting was relatively low-scoring, producing four goals in regulation and finishing with a 3-2 final. With the playoffs now here, I'm expecting tonight's game to result in a tight and low-scoring contest. The Bruins closed out the regular season by seeing the UNDER go 4-0-1 their last five games. Those games had final scores of 4-0, 2-1, 3-2, 2-1 and 3-0, averaging less than four goals each. For the season, the Bruins have seen the UNDER go 12-6-1 when playing with two day's rest in between games and 21-8-2 when facing a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Canadiens closed out the regular season with three straight victories, allowing a mere two goals during that span with final score of 3-0, 3-1 and 3-1. The UNDER is now a profitable 48-33-7 when they've played in the month of April over the past decade, including a 12-7-1 mark the last three seasons. Both goalies are playing well. Boston's Tim Thomas closed out the final three weeks of the regular season by going 5-2-2 with a 1.85 goals-against-average. Meanwhile, Montreal's Carey Price has a 12-3-0 record with a 2.12 GAA (two shutouts) since taking over the starting job from Huet in February. Price may be a rookie but he's been playing with veteran-like poise. He's no stranger to "big games" as he's won gold for Canada as the World Juniors and was also named playoff MVP in leading his minor league team to a Calder Cup championship. Look for both goalies to continue their recent strong play and for tonight's final combined score to be lower than expected. *Blue Chip
BASEBALL
TAMPA BAY
I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY. The Mariners have grabbed the first two games of this series but I expect the Rays to bounce back and avoid the sweep this afternoon. For starters, they'll be extremely motivated to snap their 4-game losing skid before it turns into another one of their "typical" seasons. That's particularly true given that the Rays had much higher hopes than normal entering this season. Additionally, the early start time should favor the Rays, as the first pitch will be thrown out at 12:40 ET, which is a very early 9:40 for the West coast based Mariners. Most importantly, I expect Tampa to have an advantage on the mound. Batista may have won 16 games for the Mariners last season but he's still a mediocre pitcher. He's got a losing career record and he hasn't had an ERA below 4.10 since 2003. He also wasn't sharp in his opener, giving up five runs (4 earned) seven hits and four walks, en route to a 6.00 ERA and a 6-4 loss. It should also be noted that the Mariners are still without their closer, J.J. Putz. Batista, a former closer, has already been forced to come in and save a game but (obviously) won't be able to do that here. Edwin Jackson gets the call for the Rays and he's coming off a great opening start. Facing the powerful Yankees, Jackson ran into trouble in the first inning, allowing the Yankees to load the bases. However, he escaped the inning by allowing only one run. That would turn out to be the only run which he allowed as he cruised from that point, eventually pitching six complete innings, while allowing just five hits. Note that he retired the last nine Yankee batters that he faced. Additionally, note that Jackson, who is only 24 and who has an excellent fastball, was sharp in his final couple of spring starts AND that he will have the advantage of starting against the Mariners for the first time. Look for Jackson to outpitch Batista as the Tampa Bay bats come to life and the Rays avoid the sweep. *Getaway Day GOM
TEXAS (game 1)
Game: Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers Game Time: 4/10/2008 2:10:00 PM Prediction: Texas Rangers Reason: I'm laying the price with TEXAS in Game 1 of today's double-header. I played Texas, listing Gabbard and Trachsel yesterday but the game was postponed. Gabbard has now been moved to the second of today's games while Millwood will face Trachsel in the opener. Once again, I feel that Texas should have a decided advantage. The fact that the game was rained out should be a benefit to the Rangers too, as it may have cooled off the Orioles. Orioles manager Dave Trembley concurs, saying: When you're going as good as we are, you want to keep playing. I'd rather play, but there's nothing you can do about the weather." It should also be noted that the postponement made Trachsel adjust his routine. Although its been some time since he faced them, Trachsel is 1-1 with a 7.06 ERA in four career starts vs. the Rangers. While Trachsel, now 37 years old, was relatively solid in his opening start, let's not forget that he was horrible with the Orioles last season, before moving on to the Cubs. He finished the season with a 4.90 ERA after recording a 4.97 mark the previous year. He was particularly brutal on the road last season, going 4-9 with a 5.96 ERA, allowing opposing hitters to bat over 300. As a team, Tuesday's victory notwithstanding, the Orioles remain an awful 65-97 on the road the past two seasons. Millwood gets the call in the opener for the Rangers. Despite his 0-2 record, he's been superb, allowing just two earned runs in 14 innings, for a 1.29 ERA. Those games came at Seattle and at Anaheim, two very respectable opponents. Today, Millwood has the luxury of facing a Baltimore team which he has dominated. Indeed, he was 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in two starts against the Orioles last season and is 5-0 with a 1.70 ERA his last five starts against them. All of those five starts came while Millwood was a member of the Rangers, with Texas winning them by a combined score of 24-8. Look for Millwood to continue his strong start and his dominance in this series and for the Rangers to finally give him some run support, en route to their first victory of the season. *Personal Favorite
