Mr A's
Thursday, September 18th, 2008 7:05 PM EST.
Chicago White Sox (84-67) at New York Yankees (81-71)
(R) Javier Vazquez (12-13) vs. (R) Mike Mussina (17-9)
Chicago's Javier Vazquez (12-13, 4.13) is 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA in five career starts against the Yankees.
New York's Mike Mussina (17-9, 3.63 ERA) is 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 17-16 with a 4.57 ERA in 38 career starts against the White Sox.
The White Sox have lost seven of their last 10 road games and nine of its last 12 versus the Yankees.
Take the Yankees in the Big Apple. The Yankees are 7-2 in Mussina's last 9 starts, 6-2 in his last 8 at home. The right-hander has won five straight starts against the White Sox at home.
New York Yankees -130
Thu, 09/18/08 - 8:30 PMJeff Bonds | CFB Side
triple-dime bet303 West Virginia -2.5 (-110) SportBet vs 304 Colorado
Analysis:
-2.5 at Bookmaker.com
We're getting TREMENDOUS LINE VALUE on a team that has a 34-6 record over its last 40 games - especially when considering that East Carolina is a Top 10 caliber team - displaying that in shutting down both Virginia Tech and West Virginia in back-to-back weeks.
West Virginia has had two weeks to get prepared for this ESPN clash and will undoubtedly get back to is winnings ways and that's RUNNING THE FOOTBALL.
Why is this important you ask? Well the Colorado Buffaloes are 0-12-1 ATS when getting outrushed by an opponent during the Dan Hawkins' era, which includes an 0-4-1 mark at home.
That's trouble considering that West Virginia has outrused all 17 opponents on the road the past three years and 34 of its last 35 opponents overall. They've managed to produce 4,711 yards on the ground compared to just 1,591 for their opponents.
West Virginia still has some players that are not use to losing, as this is the first time the current senior class has been at a .500 record - which is VERY IMPORTANT when preparing for a game.
Finally - West Virginia relishes this type of road situation, as they are 7-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games - covering the spread by 6.5 points.
GINA
Thursday, September 18, 2008 7:10 p.m. est.
Houston Astros (80-71) at Florida Marlins (79-72)
(R) Alberto Arias (1-0, 1.93) vs. (L) Scott Olsen (7-10, 4.31 ERA)
The hot Florida Marlins have won their last seven games overall and the last four against the Houston Astros at home, including Wednesday's 14-2 pounding of Houston.
Go with the surging Marlins at Dolphin Stadium for a three-game sweep of Houston. Florida's southpaw Scott Olsen is 2-0 with a 4.26 ERA in two career starts against the Astros.
Florida Marlins -150
WINNERS EDGE -9/18/08
CFB:
Colorado / W Virgina under 56.5 , 3 units
Thu, 09/18/08 - 7:10 PMAndre Gomes | MLB Total
double-dime bet908 FLA / 907 HOU Over 8 Bookmaker
Analysis: Unfortunately the hurricane Ike didn't just cause damages on the social life of thousands of people, but also in the sports life of the city and the Astros were one of the victims. The Astros were the hottest team in the whole MLB until September, 11th. But then the hurricane Ike prevented the Astros from playing until September, 14th and then all the momentum was gone. The team lost 4 consecutive games, with the offense being awful with .000, .037, .152 and .182 of Batting average. For this game, I expect the team to improve a little bit in the offense and I'll explain why later, with the Marlins at the same time being in a great run and fighting for the postseason via wildcard. Yesterday's game ended with a Marlins win by 14-2 and for today, I expect an high scoring affair once again, but much closer.
The Astros will send Alberto Arias, who on his debut for the Astros against the Pirates went scoreless in 5 innings, allowing just 2 hits. Even though he had a great debut, I expect today's game to be much different, as first of all Houston was on-fire at the time of his debut, with an huge momentum, which gave a lot of confidence to Arias, while right now the team is currently on a losing streak and lacking confidence. And to make things even worse, they will face a team with a great momentum right now, with 7 wins in a row and when this team has confidence, they are extremely dangerous in the offense, with them being 19-9 Over after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
On the other side, the Marlins will send the southpaw Scott Olsen and this may be the solution for the offense of the Astros. Olsen comes from a quality start against the Nationals, where he allowed just 1 run in 6 innings, but he has been terrible lately, as he allowed 4-6-4-4-3-5 runs before this quality outing. So I wouldn't be surprised if he has another letdown today. That's good news for the offense of the Astros, which has been horrible lately, but we need to remember that they faced Zambrano, Lilly, Volstad and Nolasco, which didn't help them at all and today against Olsen, their task will be much easier.
Houston is 14-2 Over after allowing 12 runs or more over the last 3 seasons and I expect a good response from both offenses today. The line is at 8 runs, so it is accessible, having in account the scenario of this game. Take the over in here. Double Dime Pick!
Thu, 09/18/08 - 7:10 PMAndre Gomes | MLB RunLine
dime bet905 NYM -1.5 (-125) Bookmaker vs 906 WAS
Analysis: This play has as a basic fundament an important psychological analysis, which combined to a technical analysis makes the Mets an excellent option for this game. Yesterday's win over the Nationals was extremely important in psychological terms, as we all remember the collapse of the Mets at the end of last season, where the Mets didn't hold a decent lead over the Phillies and ended up out of the postseason. The team entered a similar situation lately, as the team before yesterday's game had lost 3 of their last 4 games and curiously the Nationals were the responsible team for the two previous losses of the Mets and coincidence or not, it was also the Nats the team which was the main responsible for the Mets' last season collapse. If we add the fact that the Mets were coming from yesterday's game with just 2 and 0 runs scored in their previous two games, their scenario for yesterday's game wasn't great. However the Mets won yesterday by 9-7 and this win was one of the most important of the season for them and the team will now come more confident for today's game. This was the psychological analysis of the team.
The technical analysis also gives an edge for the Mets today. Johan Santana will start and this means the bullpen will have some rest today, which is great news for the team. The Mets are 7-1 in Santana's last 8 starts and he has been awesome in the second half of the season, not allowing more than 3 runs in any of his last 10 starts.
On the other side, the Nationals will send Tim Redding, who comes from three outings where he struggled and had an ERA of 4.58. He has already beaten this season his record for most innings in a season and probably that's the reason why he has been struggling lately.
The Mets have a great chance to win today, with their ace in the field. The Nationals are 3-14 in their last 17 home games vs LHP, which is a good sign for the Mets, which comes to this game with their confidence back. I predict another struggle for Redding today, with the Mets being 5-1 in their last 6 games during a Game 4 of a series. I expect an easy win for the Mets today, so I'll take them on the runline in here
Thu, 09/18/08 - 7:10 PMAndre Gomes | MLB Money Line
dime bet909 STL (+124)Bodog vs 910 CIN
Analysis: Normally, one of my rules in handicapping MLB is to not try to guess when a losing streak of a team is going to end. Today the scenario for the Cardinals is exactly this one: the team is coming from 7 defeats in a row and they are getting too far from the Wildcard, which would give them a place in the postseason. On the other side, the Reds are in a good phase right now, having won 4 games in a row and 7 of their last 9 games. Today that's the spot we find for this game and I think the Cardinals are an excellent dog for tonight and with a great chance to win.
They will send Kyle Lohse, who has been doing a good season with a 13-6 and 3.80 ERA record, even though he had a better first part of the season than the second one. However this game has some special conditions for Lohse, whose last outing was exactly against the Reds and in that game there was an incident, which originated a suspension for Lohse of 5 games. The situation was considered to be unfair, as the Cards manager later told:
"The other guy threw two balls at guys' heads," La Russa said. "I don't know, I'm just shocked."
So, I expect Lohse to have an excellent performance today, having in account this will be a revenge game for him and he comes to this outing with 7 days of rest.
On the other side, the Reds will send Edinson Volquez, who has been doing a tremendous season with 16-5 and 3.22 ERA, however on his last 3 outings, he had very long outings and sooner or later, this will have its consequences. He had 4.82 ERA in those 3 starts and in each game, he threw 117, 119 and 121 pitches, with just 4 days off to rest between games. This very high number of pitches will make him struggle and already on his last outing against the D-Backs, he showed that, as he allowed 6 walks, something not usual for him.
For this game, I expect a good outing for Lohse, which will want to take revenge from what they did to him in the last game, while Volquez is due a letdown, so having in account the price of the Cardinals today, we have an excellent spot that we can't refuse, so take the Cards to win today.
The Sharp Moves
Frank Black:
THURSDAY SEPT 18
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
COLORADO U
Thank you, and good luck
Thu, 09/18/08 - 7:05 PMTony George | MLB Total
dime bet920 NYY / 919 CWS Under 8.5 BetUS
Analysis:
Under 8.5 Yankees and White Sox
Earlier this month these two played 3 games and all 3 went under. Look for a pitchers duel tonight with Mussina for NY and Vasquez for the White Sox, whose last 3 starts his ERA is under 2. The White Sox as a team are hitting right handers at .247 in the last 10 games, and the Yanks hitting only .250 in the same timeframe. Not a whopping average by any stretch. 2 Good Picthers, 2 teams struggling at the plate, in a tightly contested game. NY has went under 6 out of their last 8 games, the Sox are 6-2 on unders with road starts for Vasquez.
Play 1 Unit on the Under tonight, check out my season ending, post season package in bases guys, a Money Maker! Tony, Thanks for for business.
Nick Parsons
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
WILD BILL
Thurs, Sept 17
Los Angeles Dodgers-125 (5 units)
Mariners +175 (5 units)
Brewers +205 (5 units)
Angels -115 (5 units)
White Sox +125 (5 units)
Orioles +170 (5 units)
New York Mets -200 (5 units)
Reds 130 (5 units)Braves +185 (5 units)
Twins +145 (5 units)
Giants -105 (5 units)
Larry Ness
St. Louis vs Cincinnati 9/18/2008 7:10:00 pm
Take the Reds.
JB's Computer Picks
Los Angeles Angels -130
New York Yankees -130
Toronto Blue Jays -180
Wunderdog
We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play. Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Seattle at Kansas City (2:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Kansas City -201 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 2)
The Royals are currently playing well, and have the good feeling of a team out of any playoff contention as they have won six straight, which makes it fun to go to the ballpark. The same can't be said for Seattle which has now lost seven straight in a row and nine straight on the road. Zack Grienke has pitched to a 2.21 ERA over his last six starts, and has not allowed more than three runs in any of those six outings. Ryan Feieraband has not pitched well at all, as he brings a 5.79 ERA into this one with an even-worse 9.88 road ERA. The Royals may be in last place in the AL Central, but they have more wins against left-handed pitching than any other team at 32-22. I like Royals for the sweep.
Game: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +185 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 5.6)
Atlanta has been completely lost on the road, but they enter this one with the same home record (41-36) as the Phillies? road mark. Cole Hammels has pitched well this season, but in his last six road starts the Phillies have managed just two wins. Consider those two wins were over the worst two teams in the NL in Washington and San Diego - he hasn't beaten a decent team on the road since before the All-Star break. Jo Jo Reyes has not pitched well this season, but his last home start he allowed just one run and four hits in six innings, and may have found something to build on. The oddsmakers like to pile on the chalk with teams in a pennant race, turning the value the other way, so I'll back the Braves here.
Game: New York Mets at Washington (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington +183 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 5.5)
The Mets? bullpen is in shambles. They have already blown 27 saves on the season and leading 8-2 last night, they needed eight relievers to hold off the Nats, winning 9-7. Johan Santana has been robbed of six wins this season, because the bullpen could not close the game. It has lead to him throwing more pitches (112.5 avg in his last six), than Mets? ownership would like to see, and may start costing him down the stretch. The high pitch count still hasn't gotten him past the seventh inning in any of the games and he has left to a no decision in three of them. Tim Redding has started 19 games in which he allowed three or less runs, and the Nats have won four of his last five starts. The Mets fell apart last year and show signs of doing so again - blowing a four-game lead in just a week, and their pen can't be trusted. The value is on the Nats here.
southside sports
la angels
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Colorado
2. 50,000♦ NY Yankees
3. 50,000♦ Cardinals
1. Colorado- First things first, this is NOT the 2007 version of the Mountaineers, as two things have become painfully clear with this new-look Bill Stewart led WVU squad: A. Pat White desperately misses playmakers RB Steve Slaton and WR Darius Reynaud, as their offense has struggled to get it done despite returning most everyone else from last years high-powered attack. And B. Bill Stewart's insistence on switching to a more pass-based pro-style attack has not gone over smoothly, as was clearly demonstrated by their 24-3 blowout loss at Eastern Carolina.
What's more is coach Stewart was quoted as saying he's going to back to the running attack in this contest, after Pat White tossed 51 passes in the first two games. Herein lies the problem, as the Buffaloes defense is especially stout against the run, and if Stewart stays true to his word (which I expect), they'll be playing right into the strength of this Colorado defense, allowing just 59 rushing yards per game thus far.
For all you West Virginia-backers out there, I got one question for you: How in the hell is a young and vulnerable WVU secondary going to stop Cody Hawkins and this high-powered Buffaloes passing attack?! Remember this stat: Opposing QBs are 43 of 55 for 502 yards against this Moutaineers defense thus far this season. That's right, two games and already the WVU secondary is getting exposed! More of the same tonight, as Hawkins puts on a clinic at home. Not to mention, when Hawkins isn't slinging the ball, star frosh RB Darrell Scott is just as dangerous as Noel Devine, if not more!
Finally, you have to believe the Buffaloes and their fans will be fired up in this national TV appearance. Look for a lot of energy coming from Colorado early and often in this one. Not to mention, the Buffaloes are also on a 5-0 run ATS in 2nd of back-to-back home games, which should tell you a little something about home field advantage. In the end, coach Stewart flip-flopping between pass-based and run-based attacks is a BAD sign, as his offense flounders in the confusion. Do not sleep on this Colorado team, especially at home, against a soft-ass WVU secondary. Buffaloes roll!
Take Colorado plus the points over West Virginia as your top-rated play of the day.
2. NY Yankees- For as much as the White Sox need to keep winning games, tonight's match up maybe biting off more than they chew. New York is playing well, and while its too little too late, there's no question they're highly motivated in their final homestand at their beloved Yankee Stadium.
While Mike Mussina hasn't pitched well of late, I expect he'll bounce back nicely tonight for two reasons: A. He's been downright nasty against the White Sox at home, going 6-1 with a 3.25 ERA in 7 career starts there. He's won 5 straight at Yankee Stadium against the White Sox, make it 6 after tonight! And B. He's coming off a tough home loss to the Rays, where he got tagged for 5 run in 5 innings. I fully expect he'll come out looking for redemption in this one, and he'll deliver, plain and simple.
Opposing Mussina is Javier Vazquez, who's looked good over his last 3 starts, but let's not get carried away... 2 of his last 3 starts came at home, where he's much more comfortable. On the road Vazquez is a different pitcher, going 5-7 with a 4.47 ERA. Not to mention, his career numbers against the Yankees leave a lot to be desired, going 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA in 5 starts! With the Yankees offense coming back to life, Vazquez will find himself in trouble tonight.
Finally, let's look at perhaps the biggest short term disparity, and that's the bullpen play. White Sox 'pen has been atrocious of late, posting a laughable 9.12 ERA over their last 10 games. New York on the other hand, has been rock-solid, posting a 2.88 ERA over the same span! In the end, look for the Yankees to take care of business as the suddenly sputtering White Sox will have to wait for a trip to Kansas City before picking up another much-needed win.
Take the NY Yankees behind Mussina over the Chicago White Sox and Vazquez in this MLB match up.
3. Cardinals- Looking over each team's recent play, I can understand why bettors would shy away from the Cardinals in this spot. But let me be the one to tell you, expect the Redbirds to snap out of their funk tonight, and here's why:
First, Edinson Volquez has not been the same pitcher of late, as his innings and pitch counts have risen, his effectiveness has declined. Sure, he was solid at soft-hitting Arizona in his last one, but the 3 starts prior saw him allow 14 runs over his last 18 innings, with no less than 110 pitches thrown in each start. Not only that but his command has been off, walking 6 in his last start, and allowing 16 hits over his last 3. Cardinals offense may be slumping, but a sputtering Volquez is just what the doctor ordered.
Second, let't not forget Kyle Lohse has some payback in order in this match up, as we all know him and Volquez do not like each other after their last meeting (where both pitcher threw at each other, resulting in a 5-game suspension for Lohse). Despite his struggles of late, going 1-4 with a 4.72 ERA over his last 10 starts, most of that is due to a slumping Cardinals offense, as he's posted a solid 2.33 ERA over his last 3 starts! Included in those starts were two excellent road efforts, where Lohse allowed 2 runs over his last 14 inning away!
Finally, for all the struggles of this St. Louis club, they still own the edge in two critical categories: A. Though they maybe slumping at the plate, their team batting average is still 15 points higher than the Reds over their last 10 games... So don't tell me the Reds offense is any better than the Cardinals right now. And B. despite their winning streak, the Reds bullpen has been highly suspect over their last 10 games, posting a 4.85 ERA, as compared to the Cards 2.48 ERA over the same span! In the end, look for the Cardinals to turn it around tonight in Cincy, as they take advantage of a seemingly fatigued Volquez, while Lohse gets his redemption in the process!
Take the Cardinals behind Lohse over the Reds and Volquez in this MLB match up
These are today's plays:
*** EZWINNERS MLB ***
5 STAR: (902) PITTSBURGH (+$113) over LA Dodgers
(Listing Maholm only)
(Risking $500 to win $565)
11:35PM Central Time
5 STAR: (918) OAKLAND (+$104) over LA Angels
(Action)
(Risking $500 to win $520)
2:35PM Central Time
mike rose
3* CWS/NYY OVER 8? ?110
2* HOU +140
5* AZD ?105
william kidd
spankees
rocco Spacamuro
100* Colorado +3.5
