The King Maker
West Virginia -3.0 vs Colorado 1-Unit
I can see why they slapped a 3 on this game, and I can certainly see why the pub may have Colorado on their radar.
It's been easy for us to take advantage aof a few Big East teams, like we did with Louisville last night, South Florida (push) the other night, and now West Virginia tonight.
The Big 12 is supposedly the POWER conference, and the Big East is full of overrated units, right?
People tend to see overall Conference strength as an indicator to individual team performance. That's a foolish mistake.
Sometimes you just have to look at a matchup in terms of overall team speed, special teams, and sheer talent.
West Virginia is much faster than Colorado.
Speed is a tangible asset in games like this.
My guy in Morgantown is telling me that the Mountaineers are practicing angry, barking out the right kind of reinforcement, and actually behaving like a hungry team. Word out of that camp is that they were woefully overconfidant at the beginning of this season, and the loss to ECU has apparently straightened out the WVU mindset.
I have a feeling that WVU is going to smack Colordao in the mouth, and if they don't turn the ball over, then we will see a comfortable win, tonight.
I'm not sure how they could set a line like 3 on this game, but apparently people were buying on both sides of the wager, so the line held.
That's good for us!
If you're asking me why I'm basing my play on SPEED, SPECIAL TEAMS, and EMOTION, then I'll tell you that this REALLY helps when you're simply better than a team in all three phases of the game.
Time of Possession
The Colorado defense has allowed both of their opponents to control the clock. That's acceptable against the likes of Colorado State (sort of), but there's no excuse for Easter Washington to control the game clock like they did.
This is one of the Killers for Colorado. They have to outscore WVU, and they can't do that if the WVU offense is on the field as long as Eastern Washington was!
Colorado State held the ball for almost 5 minutes longer than Colorado, and Eastern Washington OUT-FIRST DOWNED Colorado (18-17) and shared the time of possession!
That's a sign of a terrible secondary, and a suspect D-Line.
Combine this lack of STOPPING POWER with one of the Nation's best punters, and you can see the possibility of quite a few long fields for the Buffs.
I don't see any indication as to why WVU wont hold the ball as long as Colorado State or Eastern! Am I missing something?
WVU has 20 seniors on that team, and they are NOT going to come out like a bunch of freightened children.
Did you know that they have some kind of chamber that mimics the thin air of Colorado?
Speaking of thin air, and punting.....yeah....the ball travels.
Is Colorado thin on the edges?
They apparently have 4 Freshman and one Senior listed at the defensive end position. This is probably the reason why teams are moving the ball on Colorado. Those Freshman tend to wilt as the game progresses, and they haven't developed the skills needed to beat an experience Offensive Tackle.
I will harp on this for a moment, becuase that STRONG WVU OL is getting severely overlooked tonight! This is a matchup that I think WVU will dominate.
Teams are passing on this Colorado team, and people blame the secondary, but it originates on the edges with that young set of defensive ends.
Those issues will be pronounced tonight!
Punting the ball:
The Colorado punter averaged 31 yards per punt against Colorado State, and he has landed the ball inside the 20 NEVER.
He may be better than that, but the outlook is not good for them, AND THE WVU KICKING GAME IS FAR BETTER! FAR FAR BETTER!
This also makes the HEAVILY DANGEROUS return game for Colorado, a little less potent, becuase WVU's kicker is a speacialist, and he handles the punting duties well. With the thin air in Colorado, this may serve to give us strong punts and a lack of return.
(as long as we don't outkick the coverage.)
Pat McAfee, the WVU kicker and punter is a game changer, and may be able to give us the boost we need to secure the cover.
The big deal here is the kick-off! McAfee has to be extra good, and the ball needs to hit the end zone. The Colorado returner is averaging 50 yards per kickoff return.
Again: the thin air may help us. He can reach the end zone already, so I'm hopeful for containment.
Here's my case:
I think the Colorado ENDS are overrated. This may be the opening that we needed for a massive, and experienced offensive line to exploit.
We must crash into the second level with our interior.
I'm pretty confident that we can do this.
The Colorado rush defense looks good on paper, but they faced bad running teams, and smaller lines. WVU has under performed, and they are on a mission, with a longer break than usual to prepare, and a smaller D-line than the one ECU had.
The key here is GETTING A HAT ON THE LINEBACKERS! Those are the STARS of the Colorado defense. If you blow up the Colorado LB's then that defense will fal apart.
I'm certain the key FUNDAMENTAL battle zone is in the second level tonight. If WVU filters their interior linemen into the second level, then we will take this game by 2 touchdowns.
If not: then it will be a war.
I think we are in great shape!
