Thursday Services
- Thread starter eddieh8823
- Start date
Gator's NBA/CBB 70% Report
NBA
Thursday: Pass
CBB
Thursday: Play On CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, a team with a winning percentage of 60% to 80% playing a team with a winning record
36-8 ATS the last 5 seasons (81.8%) PLAY: CS-Fullerton +3.5
NBA
Thursday: Pass
CBB
Thursday: Play On CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, a team with a winning percentage of 60% to 80% playing a team with a winning record
36-8 ATS the last 5 seasons (81.8%) PLAY: CS-Fullerton +3.5
RAS
Pacific -3.... 1 unit
Cal State Fullerton at Pacific (-3) - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #549-550
Pacific is 11-5 despite having played one of the tougher non-conference schedule's in the Big West. They are 2-1 in conference play and have yet to have serve broken at home with only Big West loss coming at first place CSUN in a game they led the entire first half. The Tigers dominated Big West play for three years before a down season last year but they return all key components and are much more seasoned, healthy, and deep this year. Miami Ohio transfer Chad Troyer has added a much needed consistent scorer on the perimeter. Pacific has a balanced offense (lead Big West in FG%) and a solid defense (2nd in Big West in FG% allowed). Fullerton is overvalued here despite coming off a bad 15 point home loss to UCSB. Their conference worst defense was again exposed as the Gauchos put up 89 points. The Titans have some talented scorers but their lack of size leaves their offense unbalanced and their defense a liability. This is even more of a problem on the road. Pacific easily has the most fans and biggest home court advantage in the conference. Expect the Tigers to make a statement that they will again be a factor in the Big West with a solid win here. Give the points.
Pacific -3.... 1 unit
Cal State Fullerton at Pacific (-3) - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #549-550
Pacific is 11-5 despite having played one of the tougher non-conference schedule's in the Big West. They are 2-1 in conference play and have yet to have serve broken at home with only Big West loss coming at first place CSUN in a game they led the entire first half. The Tigers dominated Big West play for three years before a down season last year but they return all key components and are much more seasoned, healthy, and deep this year. Miami Ohio transfer Chad Troyer has added a much needed consistent scorer on the perimeter. Pacific has a balanced offense (lead Big West in FG%) and a solid defense (2nd in Big West in FG% allowed). Fullerton is overvalued here despite coming off a bad 15 point home loss to UCSB. Their conference worst defense was again exposed as the Gauchos put up 89 points. The Titans have some talented scorers but their lack of size leaves their offense unbalanced and their defense a liability. This is even more of a problem on the road. Pacific easily has the most fans and biggest home court advantage in the conference. Expect the Tigers to make a statement that they will again be a factor in the Big West with a solid win here. Give the points.
Thanks Eddie.
AR Free Play- Clev St+5.5
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My Plays-For Shitz and giggles:0corn
Pacific-3
Ill Chi-3.5
Phx ML-107
Cavs O182
Clev St+5.5
yesterday 1-3-1:00hour
last two 1-8-1:mj07:
overall 6-12-1:142smilie
**TOM SCOTT'S FIVE STAR UPSET SPECIAL!**
Indiana at MINNESOTA - 9:00 PM EST
Play ON: #540 MINNESOTA plus the points
The Gophers are perfect on this floor this season and are hoping to stay that way and, while they're at it, give venerated coach Tubby Smith his 400th career win. If history repeats itself like they say, Minnesota will get the job done. Indiana has won only once in its last eight trips to Minny and is a lowly 4-23 SU in its last 27 games on the conference road against .600 or better opposition. Raise the ante to .700 or better and the Hoosiers are 1-15 SU in their last 16 tries. Here's the rub: In those 16 games, Indiana was the underdog each time. We're not sure why the Hoosiers are favored here and we're going to pay to find out. Take the Gophers and the points.
PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 78 - Indiana 68
Indiana at MINNESOTA - 9:00 PM EST
Play ON: #540 MINNESOTA plus the points
The Gophers are perfect on this floor this season and are hoping to stay that way and, while they're at it, give venerated coach Tubby Smith his 400th career win. If history repeats itself like they say, Minnesota will get the job done. Indiana has won only once in its last eight trips to Minny and is a lowly 4-23 SU in its last 27 games on the conference road against .600 or better opposition. Raise the ante to .700 or better and the Hoosiers are 1-15 SU in their last 16 tries. Here's the rub: In those 16 games, Indiana was the underdog each time. We're not sure why the Hoosiers are favored here and we're going to pay to find out. Take the Gophers and the points.
PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 78 - Indiana 68
CANNON
Thursday's Plays...
15 Dime ?
ARIZONA STATE
Take the points with Arizona State tonight when they visit California.
The Sun Devils were off last weekend which means they had extra time to prepare for tonight?s meeting. Coach Herb Sendek has done a good job so far in implementing his system and Cal is going to find the going tough against Arizona State tonight.
The Sun Devils played Cal very tough last season and they?ve improved immensely since then so tonight should be another close contest.
Cal?s frontcourt is thin right now, with Theo Robertson and Omondi Amoke both out with injuries. They stopped a two-game losing streak with a 10-point win at Oregon State last Saturday, but Arizona State will provide a tougher test tonight.
The Sun Devils are on a nine-game winning streak and are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine versus the Pac-10.
The road team is on a 13-3 ATS run in the last 16 meetings.
Take the points with Arizona State as they stay within the number on the road.
10 Dime ?
LOUSIVILLE
Lay the points with Louisville tonight when they host Marquette.
No question Marquette is off to a good start this year, but I trust Louisville and coach Rick Pitino at home.
The Cardinals are 3-0 SUATS in their last three.
Louisville is doing it with defense this year, as they rank in the top 20 in field-goal defense and points allowed.
The Golden Eagles are 2-7 ATS on the highway dating to last season, 2-6 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning home mark and 1-4 ATS on Thursday.
The Cardinals are on ATS runs of 6-2 on Thursday and 19-7-1 in the Big East.
Lay the small number as Louisville grabs the home win and cover
Thursday's Plays...
15 Dime ?
ARIZONA STATE
Take the points with Arizona State tonight when they visit California.
The Sun Devils were off last weekend which means they had extra time to prepare for tonight?s meeting. Coach Herb Sendek has done a good job so far in implementing his system and Cal is going to find the going tough against Arizona State tonight.
The Sun Devils played Cal very tough last season and they?ve improved immensely since then so tonight should be another close contest.
Cal?s frontcourt is thin right now, with Theo Robertson and Omondi Amoke both out with injuries. They stopped a two-game losing streak with a 10-point win at Oregon State last Saturday, but Arizona State will provide a tougher test tonight.
The Sun Devils are on a nine-game winning streak and are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine versus the Pac-10.
The road team is on a 13-3 ATS run in the last 16 meetings.
Take the points with Arizona State as they stay within the number on the road.
10 Dime ?
LOUSIVILLE
Lay the points with Louisville tonight when they host Marquette.
No question Marquette is off to a good start this year, but I trust Louisville and coach Rick Pitino at home.
The Cardinals are 3-0 SUATS in their last three.
Louisville is doing it with defense this year, as they rank in the top 20 in field-goal defense and points allowed.
The Golden Eagles are 2-7 ATS on the highway dating to last season, 2-6 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning home mark and 1-4 ATS on Thursday.
The Cardinals are on ATS runs of 6-2 on Thursday and 19-7-1 in the Big East.
Lay the small number as Louisville grabs the home win and cover
Welcome back you Eli Manning loving homo! :00hour :mj07: :142smilie
(disclaimer: to all the homosexual members in the forum, I meant that lovingly and affectionatelly with no discriminatory intent, so just chill and have another half laugh double decaf latte!):nono:
...and thanks Jack for the early lift. You are a gentleman AND a scholar!
LT Profits
Kent State +3
Even though the Miami-Ohio Redhawks are the home team here, we do not feel they deserve to be favored over the Kent State Golden Flashes.
Kent State is a nice 13-3 on the season, and the are already 2-0 inside the MAC. The Flashes have won 10 of their last 11 games, with the only loss during this stretch coming vs. the top-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels on the road! The are also 4-0 against the spread in the last four head-to-head meetings between these schools.
While Kent State comes in on a roll, Miami Ohio has lost four straight games both straight up and ATS. The Redhawks are 0-2 in the conference, and they have now fallen to two games under .500 overall at 6-8. Granted, this is there first home game after playing five straight on the road, but that may not be enough to overcome the talent advantage that Kent Stats owns here.
We look for Kent to improve to 3-0 in the conference with the mild road upset.
Kent State +3
Kent State +3
Even though the Miami-Ohio Redhawks are the home team here, we do not feel they deserve to be favored over the Kent State Golden Flashes.
Kent State is a nice 13-3 on the season, and the are already 2-0 inside the MAC. The Flashes have won 10 of their last 11 games, with the only loss during this stretch coming vs. the top-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels on the road! The are also 4-0 against the spread in the last four head-to-head meetings between these schools.
While Kent State comes in on a roll, Miami Ohio has lost four straight games both straight up and ATS. The Redhawks are 0-2 in the conference, and they have now fallen to two games under .500 overall at 6-8. Granted, this is there first home game after playing five straight on the road, but that may not be enough to overcome the talent advantage that Kent Stats owns here.
We look for Kent to improve to 3-0 in the conference with the mild road upset.
Kent State +3
LANG
THURSDAY
20 Dime: Suns
5 Dime: Illinois-Chicago
5 Dime: Minnesota
5 Dime: St. Louis
Free Pick: Marquette
THURSDAY
20 Dime: Suns
5 Dime: Illinois-Chicago
5 Dime: Minnesota
5 Dime: St. Louis
Free Pick: Marquette
DOCS cbb
4 Unit Play. #517 Take Vanderbilt +10 ? over Tennessee (7:00 pm ESPN) Way too many points to be laying in this Battle of Tennessee, as the Commodores head to Knoxville to take on the Volunteers. Both teams have just one setback on the season and Vandy has had plenty of time to recover from that emotional loss to Kentucky over the weekend in double overtime. Both teams have great guard play and thus expect many perimeter shots and Vandy can more then hold their own. This game will go right down to the wire and getting double digits makes this a strong play with the underdog.
4 Unit Play. #521 Take Butler -5 ? over Cleveland State (7:30 pm) The Bulldogs are in first place in the Horizon League and expect them to stay there for the remainder of the season, moving to 5-0 after putting away Cleveland State on Thursday. Butler owns a commanding 21-5 series lead over Cleveland State, including four consecutive wins over the Vikings. This game comes down to one player in A.J. Graves. Butler has him and the Rams have no answer for him. He is a big time player and will be able to play at the next level and when you are in the Horizon League, you will not face strong competition and be able to showcase all of your skills.
4 Unit Play. #526 Take Seton Hall -5 over South Florida (7:30 pm ESPN Fullcourt) The Hall will record their first conference victory of the season tonight @ the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. The Pirates have never lost to the Bulls and that will continue past Thursday and the more athletic talent lies with the home squad. Seton Hall is scoring over 80 points per game and that will allow them to cover this medium sized number. Brian Laing will dominated inside going for a double-double propelling the Hall to their first victory on the season. They have too much talent to be this bad and will not go 0-4 in Big East play.
4 Unit Play. #517 Take Vanderbilt +10 ? over Tennessee (7:00 pm ESPN) Way too many points to be laying in this Battle of Tennessee, as the Commodores head to Knoxville to take on the Volunteers. Both teams have just one setback on the season and Vandy has had plenty of time to recover from that emotional loss to Kentucky over the weekend in double overtime. Both teams have great guard play and thus expect many perimeter shots and Vandy can more then hold their own. This game will go right down to the wire and getting double digits makes this a strong play with the underdog.
4 Unit Play. #521 Take Butler -5 ? over Cleveland State (7:30 pm) The Bulldogs are in first place in the Horizon League and expect them to stay there for the remainder of the season, moving to 5-0 after putting away Cleveland State on Thursday. Butler owns a commanding 21-5 series lead over Cleveland State, including four consecutive wins over the Vikings. This game comes down to one player in A.J. Graves. Butler has him and the Rams have no answer for him. He is a big time player and will be able to play at the next level and when you are in the Horizon League, you will not face strong competition and be able to showcase all of your skills.
4 Unit Play. #526 Take Seton Hall -5 over South Florida (7:30 pm ESPN Fullcourt) The Hall will record their first conference victory of the season tonight @ the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. The Pirates have never lost to the Bulls and that will continue past Thursday and the more athletic talent lies with the home squad. Seton Hall is scoring over 80 points per game and that will allow them to cover this medium sized number. Brian Laing will dominated inside going for a double-double propelling the Hall to their first victory on the season. They have too much talent to be this bad and will not go 0-4 in Big East play.
FERRINGO
5.5-Unit Play. Take #521 Butler (-5) over Cleveland State (7:30 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 17)
Note: This is our Game of the Week. Buy the hook. If you can't buy the hook I endorse the play at -5.5. But this line is dropping, so you may be able to wait it out.
I?m not going to run through the litany of teams that Butler has beaten ? but there are a lot of very good ones on that list. They aren?t going to lose to Cleveland State. If they aren?t going to lose, I think they?re going to cover. They are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games and 13-5-1 ATS overall. Cleveland State is in first place in the Horizon League mainly because they have played the worst teams in the conference. They are 3-7-1 ATS against teams over .500 and they really don?t have much diversity on offense. Butler has beaten CSU by 42, 25, and 29 in the last three meetings and are 13-2 SU in their last 15 meetings. I think CSU has closed the gap significantly, but I really don?t see how this isn?t a 10-point Butler win.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #579 Tennessee-Martin (+10.5) over Austin Peay (8:30 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 17)
I think this line is going to climb, so you may be able to get it at +11 if you are patient.
Tennessee-Martin can put the ball in the hole and Austin Peay?s forte has been close wins. These teams went into overtime two weeks ago and I just don?t see this much separation. Only three of the last 10 meetings have been decided by more than 10 points and I think UT-Martin can hang with a team that is 0-8-2 ATS in its last 10.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #575 SE Missouri State (+7) over Tennessee State (8:30 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 17)
This is too many points to be giving the better team. Tennessee State has proven nothing in the OVC and SE Missouri State has been dominating smaller teams on the boards. I think SEMS has a strong chance to win this one outright.
2-Unit Play. Take #517 Vanderbilt (+10.5) over Tennessee (7 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 17)
This is too many points to give up for a team that doesn?t play any defense. That has been our rationale in several plays against the Vols this year and I think we are 3-0 against them. Don't be shocked if Tennessee gets up big early and then lets Vandy back in the door in the last 10 minutes.
2-Unit Play. Take #539 Indiana (-125) over Minnesota (9 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 17)
If Minnesota?s best win wasn?t a three-point victory over Penn State then I might be a believer. They don?t, so I?m not. IU is not nearly as good as the Hype, but they have enough scoring options to make this one a comfortable win. This line is about four points too light and we?ll back the team that?s 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #560 Stanford (-5) over Arizona (10 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 17)
Arizona is a bit banged up right now ? Jordan Hill has a sore ankle and is only about 85 percent, Chase Budinger has had the flu, and Bret Brielmaier is out with a shoulder injury. I don?t know if they can roll into Stanford and beat the Cardinal with everyone not at 100 percent. I just don?t think they have enough raw talent for that this year. Stanford shot 2-for-18 from 3-point land at Oregon over the weekend in a game they should have won. That screams bounceback to me as I see them knocking down somewhere closer to their 38.7-percent home clip. The Cardinal are one of the best defensive teams in the country, their top guys make their free throws, and I think they pull away late for an 8-point win.
5.5-Unit Play. Take #521 Butler (-5) over Cleveland State (7:30 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 17)
Note: This is our Game of the Week. Buy the hook. If you can't buy the hook I endorse the play at -5.5. But this line is dropping, so you may be able to wait it out.
I?m not going to run through the litany of teams that Butler has beaten ? but there are a lot of very good ones on that list. They aren?t going to lose to Cleveland State. If they aren?t going to lose, I think they?re going to cover. They are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games and 13-5-1 ATS overall. Cleveland State is in first place in the Horizon League mainly because they have played the worst teams in the conference. They are 3-7-1 ATS against teams over .500 and they really don?t have much diversity on offense. Butler has beaten CSU by 42, 25, and 29 in the last three meetings and are 13-2 SU in their last 15 meetings. I think CSU has closed the gap significantly, but I really don?t see how this isn?t a 10-point Butler win.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #579 Tennessee-Martin (+10.5) over Austin Peay (8:30 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 17)
I think this line is going to climb, so you may be able to get it at +11 if you are patient.
Tennessee-Martin can put the ball in the hole and Austin Peay?s forte has been close wins. These teams went into overtime two weeks ago and I just don?t see this much separation. Only three of the last 10 meetings have been decided by more than 10 points and I think UT-Martin can hang with a team that is 0-8-2 ATS in its last 10.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #575 SE Missouri State (+7) over Tennessee State (8:30 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 17)
This is too many points to be giving the better team. Tennessee State has proven nothing in the OVC and SE Missouri State has been dominating smaller teams on the boards. I think SEMS has a strong chance to win this one outright.
2-Unit Play. Take #517 Vanderbilt (+10.5) over Tennessee (7 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 17)
This is too many points to give up for a team that doesn?t play any defense. That has been our rationale in several plays against the Vols this year and I think we are 3-0 against them. Don't be shocked if Tennessee gets up big early and then lets Vandy back in the door in the last 10 minutes.
2-Unit Play. Take #539 Indiana (-125) over Minnesota (9 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 17)
If Minnesota?s best win wasn?t a three-point victory over Penn State then I might be a believer. They don?t, so I?m not. IU is not nearly as good as the Hype, but they have enough scoring options to make this one a comfortable win. This line is about four points too light and we?ll back the team that?s 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #560 Stanford (-5) over Arizona (10 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 17)
Arizona is a bit banged up right now ? Jordan Hill has a sore ankle and is only about 85 percent, Chase Budinger has had the flu, and Bret Brielmaier is out with a shoulder injury. I don?t know if they can roll into Stanford and beat the Cardinal with everyone not at 100 percent. I just don?t think they have enough raw talent for that this year. Stanford shot 2-for-18 from 3-point land at Oregon over the weekend in a game they should have won. That screams bounceback to me as I see them knocking down somewhere closer to their 38.7-percent home clip. The Cardinal are one of the best defensive teams in the country, their top guys make their free throws, and I think they pull away late for an 8-point win.
**** MY PLAYS FOR TODAY ****
---CBB---------------
(8*) NORTH TEXAS
(8*) RHODE ISLAND
(6*) S. FLORIDA
(6*) BUTLER
(5*) G. MASON
(4*) INDIANA
---NBA---------------
(7*) SUNS
---NHL---------------
(7*) OILERS / CAPITALS: OVER
1-10* (54-46-2)
---CBB---------------
(8*) NORTH TEXAS
(8*) RHODE ISLAND
(6*) S. FLORIDA
(6*) BUTLER
(5*) G. MASON
(4*) INDIANA
---NBA---------------
(7*) SUNS
---NHL---------------
(7*) OILERS / CAPITALS: OVER
1-10* (54-46-2)
MJWins Guys??
MJWins Guys??
Anyone have Paul Leiner, Bobby Bo, or Frank Patron tonight?? I have Indiana 10* already for Leiner, but that's all I have. Leiner has a 200* NBA over (I am guessing the Lakers/Suns game) and Frank was 3-0 last night on college plays. These MJWins guys are my fave. Thanks for any of you who have their plays for all of us. Good luck!!
MJWins Guys??
Anyone have Paul Leiner, Bobby Bo, or Frank Patron tonight?? I have Indiana 10* already for Leiner, but that's all I have. Leiner has a 200* NBA over (I am guessing the Lakers/Suns game) and Frank was 3-0 last night on college plays. These MJWins guys are my fave. Thanks for any of you who have their plays for all of us. Good luck!!
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 200,000♦ Arizona State
2. 50,000♦ Louisville
3. 50,000♦ Nuggets
1. Arizona State- Okay so the Sun Devils lose badly in an early season road game at Nebraska, and all of sudden everyone is jumping off their bandwagon tonight in Berkeley... You'd think 9 straight wins, including a nice OT win over Arizona last week would tell you something about how far this team has progessed! Look for the Sun Devile to to prove doubters wrong in this spot, and here's why:
First, if recent history is any barometer, then this game should be a close one. Recall last year's black-and-blue 42-41 battle, in which the Sun Devils upset the Bears in Berkeley. In the meeting beforehand, they went into overtime, with Cal pulling out the 66-62 win. Not to mention the fact the Sun Devils have had 8 days to gameplan for this match up, while Cal has Arizona on deck two days from now!
Second, if you thought last year's version of Arizona State played hard-nosed defense, this year's version in downright nasty, allowing just 57 ppg on 40% over their last 5 games (and that includes wins against Arizona and Oregon). Their youngish guard-heavy rotation is quick on their feet and with their hands, led by James Hardin's 27 steals (2 others with 19 steals).
Also, while many are calling for Ryan Anderson and DeVon Hardin to dominate this match up, its really not that simple. Just because the Sun Devils are smaller, doesn't mean they can't compete... Did guard-heavy Oregon have trouble with this Cal team? No, because despite the fact Anderson scored 22 points in that game, the rest of his team (besides G Christopher) is average at best.
Finally, let's look over some trends, as the Sun Devils have been excellent against the PAC-10, going 7-1-1 ATS over their last 9 in conference. Not only that, but the road team in this series is an outstanding 13-3 ATS over their last 16 meetings. Numbers like those are hard to ignore, but I'll leave you with one last stat to digest... Cal is allowing 72 ppg over their last 5 games, and if you think defense like that is going to extend the margin enough to cover, then you don't know college basketball!
Take Arizona State plus the points over California as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Louisville- This is a tough spot for Marquette, as they've shown vulnerability on the road this season with a loss at West Virginia, and are just 2-7 ATS over their last 9 road games. Coming into Pitino's house with his team healthy and starting to surge does not bode well for the Golden Eagles tonight.
Make no mistake, the Cardinals win at Kentucky was their "turnaround game," a game that they can hang their hats on and build off of for the rest of the season. They've won and covered 3 straight, including beating the very same West Virgnia team that beat Marquette 63-54 at Freedom Hall a week ago. Speaking of Freedom Hall, don't forget the Golden Eagles outright win there last season... Now its payback time!
Biggest reason why they win and cover tonight at home is defense, plain and simple. Louisville is allowing just 54 ppg on an outstanding 34% shooting over their last 5 games! When you include the fact that those numbers came against offenses like Kentucky and West Virginia, that stat is even more impressive. The Cardinals frontcourt is head and shoulders better than Marquette on both ends of the court, while the backcourt of Smith, McGee, and Sosa is good enough to at least limit Marquette's guard duo of James and McNeal.
Finally, the numbers don't lie, as Louisville is 12-2-2 ATS against the Big East over their last 16 regular season match ups. More of the same tonight, as the Cardinals are starting to peak, and playing them at home without the size to counter their deep frontcourt is a recipe for disaster, plain and simple.
Take Louisville over Marquette in this Big East showdown.
3. Nuggets- While its easy to underestimate Denver in this spot, thanks to the fact they've lost 3 of their last 4 games, all 3 of those losses were on the road, where Denver has been anything but good. Back at home is a different story, as the Nuggets protect their house with zeal, going 15-5 SU & 11-9 ATS there, including wins and covers over Orlando and San Antonio the last 2 weeks.
Utah suffers from the same problem as Denver, in that, they're both excellent home teams, but terrible road teams. You could easily make the argument that the Jazz's disparity of home vs. road play is even greater, going 16-3 SU in Salt Lake, but just 6-14 SU on the highway. The problem is defense, as they leave their intensity back in Utah, allowing 105 ppg on a ridiculous 48% shooting when they travel!
It doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out that allowing opponents to shoot 48% on the road is a big reason why the Jazz are 6-14 SUATS on the road. Facing a bad offense, they may be able to get away with it, but Denver is one of the better offenses in the NBA, especially at home, where they average upwards of 108 ppg on the year.
While its true the Nuggets have some injuries to consider, like Martin and Najera, as long as Camby is playing, I like their chances. He not only dominates the glass, but has the ability to challenge smallish PF Boozer in the paint. Boozer can be a beast, but at just 6'9, will have issues scoring on the pogo-stick like Camby.
Bottom line, with both teams neck and neck in the standings, this game is an important statement for either team. Unfortunately for the Jazz, their defense seemingly always finds a way to let them down on the road, and that'll be true once again tonight. Nuggets protect their house and grab the cash in this one.
Take the Nuggets over the Jazz in this NBA match up.
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 200,000♦ Arizona State
2. 50,000♦ Louisville
3. 50,000♦ Nuggets
1. Arizona State- Okay so the Sun Devils lose badly in an early season road game at Nebraska, and all of sudden everyone is jumping off their bandwagon tonight in Berkeley... You'd think 9 straight wins, including a nice OT win over Arizona last week would tell you something about how far this team has progessed! Look for the Sun Devile to to prove doubters wrong in this spot, and here's why:
First, if recent history is any barometer, then this game should be a close one. Recall last year's black-and-blue 42-41 battle, in which the Sun Devils upset the Bears in Berkeley. In the meeting beforehand, they went into overtime, with Cal pulling out the 66-62 win. Not to mention the fact the Sun Devils have had 8 days to gameplan for this match up, while Cal has Arizona on deck two days from now!
Second, if you thought last year's version of Arizona State played hard-nosed defense, this year's version in downright nasty, allowing just 57 ppg on 40% over their last 5 games (and that includes wins against Arizona and Oregon). Their youngish guard-heavy rotation is quick on their feet and with their hands, led by James Hardin's 27 steals (2 others with 19 steals).
Also, while many are calling for Ryan Anderson and DeVon Hardin to dominate this match up, its really not that simple. Just because the Sun Devils are smaller, doesn't mean they can't compete... Did guard-heavy Oregon have trouble with this Cal team? No, because despite the fact Anderson scored 22 points in that game, the rest of his team (besides G Christopher) is average at best.
Finally, let's look over some trends, as the Sun Devils have been excellent against the PAC-10, going 7-1-1 ATS over their last 9 in conference. Not only that, but the road team in this series is an outstanding 13-3 ATS over their last 16 meetings. Numbers like those are hard to ignore, but I'll leave you with one last stat to digest... Cal is allowing 72 ppg over their last 5 games, and if you think defense like that is going to extend the margin enough to cover, then you don't know college basketball!
Take Arizona State plus the points over California as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Louisville- This is a tough spot for Marquette, as they've shown vulnerability on the road this season with a loss at West Virginia, and are just 2-7 ATS over their last 9 road games. Coming into Pitino's house with his team healthy and starting to surge does not bode well for the Golden Eagles tonight.
Make no mistake, the Cardinals win at Kentucky was their "turnaround game," a game that they can hang their hats on and build off of for the rest of the season. They've won and covered 3 straight, including beating the very same West Virgnia team that beat Marquette 63-54 at Freedom Hall a week ago. Speaking of Freedom Hall, don't forget the Golden Eagles outright win there last season... Now its payback time!
Biggest reason why they win and cover tonight at home is defense, plain and simple. Louisville is allowing just 54 ppg on an outstanding 34% shooting over their last 5 games! When you include the fact that those numbers came against offenses like Kentucky and West Virginia, that stat is even more impressive. The Cardinals frontcourt is head and shoulders better than Marquette on both ends of the court, while the backcourt of Smith, McGee, and Sosa is good enough to at least limit Marquette's guard duo of James and McNeal.
Finally, the numbers don't lie, as Louisville is 12-2-2 ATS against the Big East over their last 16 regular season match ups. More of the same tonight, as the Cardinals are starting to peak, and playing them at home without the size to counter their deep frontcourt is a recipe for disaster, plain and simple.
Take Louisville over Marquette in this Big East showdown.
3. Nuggets- While its easy to underestimate Denver in this spot, thanks to the fact they've lost 3 of their last 4 games, all 3 of those losses were on the road, where Denver has been anything but good. Back at home is a different story, as the Nuggets protect their house with zeal, going 15-5 SU & 11-9 ATS there, including wins and covers over Orlando and San Antonio the last 2 weeks.
Utah suffers from the same problem as Denver, in that, they're both excellent home teams, but terrible road teams. You could easily make the argument that the Jazz's disparity of home vs. road play is even greater, going 16-3 SU in Salt Lake, but just 6-14 SU on the highway. The problem is defense, as they leave their intensity back in Utah, allowing 105 ppg on a ridiculous 48% shooting when they travel!
It doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out that allowing opponents to shoot 48% on the road is a big reason why the Jazz are 6-14 SUATS on the road. Facing a bad offense, they may be able to get away with it, but Denver is one of the better offenses in the NBA, especially at home, where they average upwards of 108 ppg on the year.
While its true the Nuggets have some injuries to consider, like Martin and Najera, as long as Camby is playing, I like their chances. He not only dominates the glass, but has the ability to challenge smallish PF Boozer in the paint. Boozer can be a beast, but at just 6'9, will have issues scoring on the pogo-stick like Camby.
Bottom line, with both teams neck and neck in the standings, this game is an important statement for either team. Unfortunately for the Jazz, their defense seemingly always finds a way to let them down on the road, and that'll be true once again tonight. Nuggets protect their house and grab the cash in this one.
Take the Nuggets over the Jazz in this NBA match up.
