greg shaker
Thu, 01/17/08 - 7:00 PMGreg Shaker | CBB Sides
double-dime bet514 Louisville -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 513 Marquette
Analysis:
NCAAB: Marquette Golden Eagles at Louisville Cardinals - Louisville -3 -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES
Game Date: 1/17/2008
Note: Louisville Head Coach Rick Pitino has turned in one of his best coaching jobs this season. His team had been wrecked by injury, a broken knee cap suffered by senior leader center David Padgett, and a knee injury by senior guard Juan Palacios, limiting his options. Also on various occasions he had to suspend both center Derrick Caracter and forward Earl Clark for a game. Because of that the Cardinals got off to a horrible start and the Boo Birds began to be heard at his home arena. This is a very talented team but lacking both leadership on the court, and depth on the bench did not allow Mr P from doing what his teams are famous for. That is, of course High D Pressure for 40 minutes. Always playing pressure defense, Pitino has different pressures, one to slow an opponent, a second more hectic to try and cause turnovers. With a lack of depth, he could not turn up the pressure often until everyone returned. They are all back and the Cardinals are playing as good as anyone in this country right now, with wins at Kentucky, and Rutgers, and home to a very good West Virginia Team. We saw what they are capable of with the Mountaineers in town as the Cards held them to just 36% shooting and numerous turnovers. I am not a huge proponent of laying any points to a squad as good as Marquette, and they certainly have performed well outside of Milwaukee, but they are going to playing a highly motivated team tonight that has all their horses back in the stable. The Golden Eagles are going to try to force the isuue tonight and we are going to see some running at Freedom Hall. The key to the game will be whether Louisville's pressure can harass all-Big East Guard Dominque James, a lightning fast kid who is a flashy passer and possesses among the top turnover-assist ratios in the league. If they cannot stop him, they might very well be in for a long night. But the Cardinals have proven they can reek havoc with good guards as they did with West Va, and they do possess great turnover ratios themselves. Nobody is playing better D than Louisville right now, limiting all opponents to 34% shooting over the last 6 games, and being at home, performing as they are, should give us what we want. Petino said it best. "This is a home-court league. At one point all the Big East teams were playing good on the road. Now they seem to be playing great at home." Both of Marquette's losses have come outside Milwaukee. I am laying the 3 points.
Thu, 01/17/08 - 9:30 PMGreg Shaker | CBB Sides
double-dime bet546 Denver -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 545 Arkansas St.
Analysis: NCAAB: Arkansas State Indians at Denver Pioneers - Denver -3 -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES
Game Date: 1/17/2008
Note: Denver is becoming a pain in the neck for Sun Belt teams because of its meticulous Princeton offense and UALR found that out a few days ago. "I would hate to face that offense every day. It's like going to have a root canal." -- New Orleans coach Joe Pasternack. Denver coach Joe Scott, and formally the same at the Ivy League School has done a good job with a team that is limited in talent, but is playing his style of play almost to perfection. That talent level just went down again and this team with 7 true freshmen on a 13 man roster just lost Small Forward David Kummer as he went down with an ankle injury last game and his 11 Points and 4.7 Rebounds will be missed by this team that regularly plays only 7 to 8 players per game. He is their leading scorer and perhaps why this line opened at 3 and has dropped a bit. But that is not what this team is all about, and the fact is, they work the ball very well and they will find the open shot tonight. They have done that very well here at home with a 5-1 mark and probably because they are nailing all shots at over 51%. Arkansas State has not traveled well this season and they never have. They have won but 1 of 7 away from Jonesboro and that was their last game as they beat a very poor UL Monroe team. They have had serious problems stopping anyone, allowing an amzing 53% shooting away from home and 81 points per game. They do lack depth at all positions and that is key here in the High Air of Denver Colorado. They have lost 6 straight here in Colorado and my best belief is that they will lose again. The Pioneers won just 3 Sunbelt games all last year, they already have 3 wins this year. Coach Scott is on my Hit List for people to watch in this conference and he will show his magic tonight with better shot selection, better D, and a hefty turnover margin this year, especially in front of the home crowd.
Thu, 01/17/08 - 10:00 PMGreg Shaker | CBB Sides
double-dime bet550 Pacific -3.5 (-110) BetUS vs 549 CS-Fullton
Analysis: NCAAB: Cal St Fullerton Titans at Pacific Tigers - Pacific -3.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES
Game Date: 1/17/2008
Note: The Tigers have the 3rd best defense in this conference and that deserted them last game at Northridge. That is probably not going to happen tonight as they return home where they play D as good as anyone in this country. They also win here at a high clip and are off to a 5-1 mark this year already. While they will face another high octane offense in Fullerton, they will also be playing a team that does not play good D and is way near the bottom of the conference with that stat. The Titans have struggled against good defensive squads and last game Cal SB took it to them pretty hard. "Their defense was terrific," coach Bob Burton told the Orange County Register. "They got out on the right guys, and we didn't penetrate with the ball, didn't get it inside, didn't move it. I think what happened was that when the defense had us so stymied, that if you're not scoring, that affects how you're going to play defense and it hurt us." The Tigers have played their last 3 on the road, and their last 4 of 5. They are back at home for a nice stretch of activity and can ill afford to lose this one to a team that is already 3-1 in the conference. It is time to circle the wagons and they will be highly motivated to do so. Sometimes that is all it takes to win a game, but the fact is, Pacific at home is a much better proposition than Fullerton on the road. This line has drifted upward since posting this morning and still a play at the current level.