Tour Champ

[DOGS THAT BARK]

One early play @ Sportingbet
Leonard -110 over Faxon.

Saw course superintendent go over this course layout last night for this weeks tourney(wish I knew date it was taped) but they have fairways cut to bout 24 yards and at time rough was bout 5 inches but he said they cut it to 4 but it is thick. So will cap this tourney with a lot of US open history.
Faxon has not faired well in recent open with highest finished in last 3 66th and 2 cuts,Leonard has thrown in a 12th and 20th along with cut.
Primary reason reason for Faxons demise is erratic driving.
Talk about a person doing it with putter and mirrows this year--he currently ranks DA 173rd-DD177th GIR's 162nd some of the worse stats you will ever find on top 30 money list and while Leonard beats him in all the above he also ranks 1st in putting and with 13th finish last week not much rust from layoff due to newborn. Only chink in this scenerio is if you go back 6 years to tour champ on this course he came in 6th however Leonard was 8th --and not familiar how course played then.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding 72 holes
Weir -110 over Appleby @ B&W
U.S. Open style courses not Appleby's fortay either
cut-37th-cut-cut-cut last 5

 

[Stanley]

Got to disagree with ya, DTB ... Appleby's driving has been excellent in the past month

Outright plays (1 unit):

Ernie Els to win 11/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Stan James, Victor Chandler and Totalbet
It seems a very long time since Els was winning (almost) everything at the start of the season and was a strong favourite for the Money List. Now that Tiger and Vijay are dominating the headlines in the bid for that title, Els' rediscovery of his form has been overlooked. Prior to last week's event, he had finished 1st, 2nd, 12th and 1st in his previous four starts. This week, they tee it up on the par-71 Champions Golf Club in Houston and Els has a much better record on par-71s than the world #1. With no pressure of the Money List on his shoulders, this could very well be the week he ends as he started it back in Hawaii.

Robert Allenby to win 40/1 e.w. @ Sean Graham [5 places]
The two Australians who make up the rest of the selections are much less likely to win this company, but have been showing enough form of late to suggest that they shouldn't be too far from the leaderboard. Allenby has finished 9th and 4th in his last two starts - his fifth top-5 finish of the season. He also has good form in Texas having finished 3rd in the Byron Nelson Championship and, more importantly, having secured his maiden Tour victory in the 2000 Houston Open. This week's winner will have to cope with the Texas winds and all three selections have shown they are good in this environment.

Stuart Appleby to win 40/1 e.w. @ Stan James and Victor Chandler
For Appleby, apart from his experience of Australian golfing conditions, it comes from his 2nd place finish in the Houston Open earlier this year and his win in that event in 1999 - his 3rd victory on the PGA Tour, a total to which he added with victory in the Las Vegas Invitational last month. He had finished 2nd in each of the previous two weeks and still managed to finish 12th the following week in Greensboro. In this form and, like Allenby, having already won on the PGA Tour in Houston, this looks a particularly large price.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Hadn't looked at Appleby's driving stats just going by prior Open form. No doubt he has best current form in quite a while,but methinks big diff on hitting wide open fairways with little penalty then hitting paths with rough. Aside from B.O. lay out he has not faired well vs Weir in championship style courses this year.
Masters Weir win Appleby cut
U.S. Open Weir 3rd Appleby cut
PGA Champ Weir 7th Appleby 23rd
B.O Weir 28th Appleby 15th

That's my main logic on match, will be interesting

 

[Stanley]

Given that Weir is 20/1 at most anywhere at the moment, there is certainly a lot of value in a pick'em matchup between a 20/1 shot and a 40/1 shot ... just have high hopes for my Southern Hemisphere trio

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will skip outrights here as short field not advantageous to place wagers.
Do like your selections Stan especially if wind blows.Been unusually calm there past 2 days so hopefully it picks up the pace for tourney.

 

[Stanley]

Joining ya, DTB

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Mike Weir to beat Stuart Appleby -111 @ BetandWin
Can't ignore the ability to hedge a 40/1 outright bet with a matchup against a player who is 20/1 at most. I think Appleby will do much better than his outright odds suggest, but also expect Weir, who won on this course in 1999, to also figure prominently. Expekt price Weir -154 which is a truer reflection of their outright odds.
(also available at Expekt)

Mike Weir to beat David Toms -120 @ SkyBet
Toms' course form is decent as well - he made the playoff two years ago and was 12th behind Weir in 1999 - but his current form is more questionable. He has made his last five cuts, but in his last seven starts, he has managed just one top-25 finish (5th in the American Express Championship). Siding with the more consistent player.

Vijay Singh to beat Davis Love -125 @ BetandWin
Expecting an indifferent performance from Love this week. It is rare that he plays four weeks in a row and Singh's victory last week signalled the end of his challenge for the Money List and the Player of the Year award. He has played well here in the past (two top-3 finishes from four starts), but the old concerns of motivation should feature this week. No matter how tired he is, you can't fault nine top-6 finishes in ten starts. Vijay will certainly not be lacking motivation this week.

 

[lal2000]

Outrights

Weir to win 20/1 ew @ Bet365 (1 unit)

DiMarco to win 66/1 ew @ Paddy Power (1 unit)

Flesch to win 100/1 ew @ Ladbrokes (Half unit)

Riley to win 100/1 ew @ Ladbrokes (Half unit)

The latter two seem a bit long and good value for an each way wager.

Good Luck!

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

My only play this week is Appleby on the interactives at 49-1. I'll find a place wager somewhere else.

 

[Shadetree]

Singh +146 Woods [Pinnacle]
Singh and Woods are not that far apart.

Weir +110 Furyk [Pinnacle]
Even matchup makes +110 attractive.

Haas -105 Tway [Pinnacle]
Despite Tway's strong showing two weeks ago, Haas is considerably better.

 

[Stanley]

Chad Campbell to beat K.J. Choi -108 @ Centrebet
Maybe it is his punishing end-of-season schedule (seven events in eight week including a week in Germany) or the pressure of making the top-30 to qualify for this event, but he has been rather average in the last two weeks and only just held on to his place in this event. Opposing him this week and with a Texan in this matchup who finished 4th in last week's event (though he should have finished 2nd as he made a right mess of the final hole).
(also available at Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and BlueSq)

Justin Leonard to beat K.J. Choi -101 @ Pinnacle [2 units]
Opposing Choi with another Texan who signalled a return to better form last week and has played this course many times. This will be Choi's first visit and apart from his 7th place finish in the Texas Open this year, he has never played well in this State.
(also available at NordicBet, Aces, Five Dimes and Sirbet)

Kenny Perry to beat K.J. Choi -111 @ Ladbrokes and SIA
Not in the same form as in the summer, but Perry is still very competitive and finished in the top-20 last week. He finished 5th in this event two years ago (just one shot out of the playoff) and should be well-rested as his schedule is nowhere near as punishing as that of Choi.

Kenny Perry to beat Darren Clarke -110 @ BlueSq
Clarke won the NEC Invitational in August and that sparked a great run of form that lasted five weeks, but his finishes since the start of October have been 38th (limited field), 61st and 13th (limited field). He was also playing in Spain last week and it is usually profitable to oppose players making trans-Atlantic flights in the week of the event, particularly those that have never played the course beforehand.
(also available at WWTS)

Kenny Perry to beat Scott Verplank -111 @ BetandWin
Opposing Verplank despite his top-5 finishes in his last two starts - these have been in relatively weak events and he tends not to play well in these higher-calibre fields. He finished seven shots behind Perry in the American Express Championship last month, for example.

Justin Leonard to beat Chris DiMarco -120 @ WWTS
DiMarco has shown only a few brief glimpses of form in the last three months and is easily opposable in this field.

Jim Furyk to beat Charles Howell -200 @ NordicBet
With Furyk having a 12-4-1 h2h lead over the past twelve months and Howell struggling to be competitive at the moment, I think this has a much greater than the required 67% chance of victory. Furyk plays well on this course (he finished 2nd in 1997, for example), while Howell will be making his debut.

 

[lostinamerica]

Mike Weir needs a win to spoil the Player of the Year battle that has shaped up between Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh in the final pairing and at the top of the market. My preference this week is for a spoiler and a show pony, and although Weir gets a few dollars, I?m venturing out with:


OUTRIGHTS:

Chad Campbell(44/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Olympic
Bob Tway(25/1 for Top 4) for 0.25* @ Olympic


MATCHUPS (Tournament) for 1* each:

Leonard(-110) over Choi @ 5 dimes
Weir(+110) over Furyk @ 5 dimes


GL

 

[sports student]

72 hole

Furyk -107 over Goosen (pinnacle)
Triplett -105 over Herron (pinnacle)
Campbell -120 over Howell (bowmans)
Kelly -105 over DiMarco (bowmans)
Baird -130 over Kaye (bowmans)
Baird -110 over DiMarco (bet 365) ties lose

 

[Shadetree]

One more:

Flesch +106 Riley [Pinnacle]

Flesch is at least as strong as Riley, has a better record in Texas, and owns a winning head-to-head record. I like his chances as an underdog this week.

 

[lostinamerica]

SEVE TROPHY:

Continental Europe Wins(+107) for 1* @ 5 dimes

GL

 

[Let's Have Fun]

1st up Thurs and tee to tee winner
KJ Choi 40-1
At least me hopes.

 

[Whalers Rule]

Have been on him all year even though he can't putt.

Allenby 33-1 win only 3 units

also supposedly ball strikers course so

Campbell 35-1 win only 1 unit

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will test the water with a 1st rd selection @ WSEX
Furyk +118 over Love (- 1/2 stroke)

They are paired together going off 2nd to last so no adv there but will be good viewing if not forced to watch every step Tiger makes walking down fairway in next group.
Been doing fairly well on this pair with Furyks consistency vs Love hot and cold but have a few more angles here.Love plays well generally before cut ranking 21st(70.12) but still lags more than .5 stroke behind Furyk 2nd (69.33)--more importantly is scoring on championship setups on U.S style courses this year.
Majors Finish/1st rd score
Masters Furyk 4/73--- Love 15th/77
U.S. Open Furyk 67/1st ----Love 76/cut
PGA Champ Furyk 72/18th--- Love 74/cut
So will take a peek with generous odds and lots of history and always a chance the ole back will flair up.

 

[Mr.]

DTB - Furyk -.5 over Love is +124 @ 5dimes

 

[sports student]

1st round at 5 dimes:

Furyk +103 over Love
Howell -123 over Triplett
Price even over DiMarco