Tourney Time

[BASON]

When looking to make a play on a team to win, I like to look for value based on the brackets and for teams that can make it to the Final Four. Once there you can then hedge if you choose to do so. This usually means taking out the top favorites.

Taking a look at the odds to win these are the teams I think are worth a bet:

UVA +650
Michigan State +900
Michigan +1500

I like UVA's path to the final four better than anyones. If the seeds hold they get TN in the regional final and I think they can frustrate the hell out of them. I actually could see TN losing and them having an easier path. Odds are not great but I am playing UVA to win the region at +120.

Duke is the overwhelming favorite, but I hate their odds. Michigan and Michigan State are two teams that can play defense and play with Duke. I think Michigan State should have been a #1 seed over Gonzaga or at least been put in the West. Ridiculous that Michigan gets a better draw than they do, but the committee loves seeing a Duke/Michigan State battle in DC to get to the Final Four. I think this happens and think State can win this game.

If not, then Duke could get Michigan in the Final Four. I like Michigan's draw and think they can beat Gonzaga (will be making a bet on them to win the Region also - just played Michigan to win region at +250). St. Mary's showed how to beat them and Michigan may be the best defensive team in the country so they can do what St. Mary's did. I think Beilien is one of the best coaches in the country and really hope we see that match up.

I am not a big fan of future bets but these are my thoughts if you are going to make them. Thoughts are welcome.

I will start adding some plays. Most of them will be FH Unders as this has been a proven money maker for me over the years.

 

[BASON]

Couple of key game stats - all stats since 2003

Iowa State/Ohio State - Both of these teams are Over monsters in the tournament. The over hits in 73% of both teams games. Iowa State is 11-4 to the Over and Ohio State is 19-7.

Florida St./Vermont - Quite the opposite here. Florida State is 2-8 to the Under since 2003 and Vermont is 1-6 to the under over the same time.

Duke - While many see them always as a high scoring team, the Under is 17-28 (62%) .

LSU - 1-8 to the Under

Murray State - 1-6 to the Under


ATS Records (60% or better)
VCU 10-3
Miss St 5-2
Oregon 13-7-1
Michigan 13-8-3
Wisconsin 21-13-3
Syracuse 19-12
Purdue 12-8
Iowa St 9-6
Nova 22-15
Florida 20-14-1

ATS Records (<40%)
Iona 0-6
Iowa 1-6
Minnesota 1-5
ODU 1-3
Utah St. 1-3
New Mex St 2-6
Maryland 4-10
Ohio State 8-17
Florida State 3-6-1
Belmont 2-4
Gonzaga 13-22-1
Cincinnati 6-10
UVA 5-8-2
Oklahoma 8-12
Marquette 6-9

 

[BASON]

I love FH Unders in the NCAA tournament. It has been a very profitable way to bet games. Not sexy, but it is a money maker. Will note that lines this year seem to be adjusting to this as many are lower than I thought they would be.

I do not bet FH Unders on Seeds 1-3 (no coincidence that Gonzaga, UNC and Duke are 3-5 top FH scoring teams) or any game where the total is Ov 70.

All of the below tournament teams averaged less than 35 points in FH this season (from low, 30.3 to high 34.9)
St. Louis
ODU
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Kansas St
Oregon
Washington
FL
Liberty
Baylor
Syracuse
MD
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Nova
Cincy
Temple
Seton Hall
Iowa
Michigan
Vermont
Kansas
Texas Tech
Va Tech

The theory is that these are low scoring teams on average in the FH and most will be even lower in the tournament given the situation (tough opponent, slow starts, shooting in new gym, etc.). It is a good start when looking at FH Under bets, so I use this to start looking at games to bet after taking into account the matchup. For instance Temple is on the list, but Belmont is the highest FH scoring team in the country so it will not be a play (also explains why the total is over 70).

More later.

 

[cruisin]

Such great info, thanks for taking the time to post. BOL with your plays.:0008

 

[GibsonLP_Blues]

Thanks Bason, looking forward to your plays (and any International soccer you might have coming up)

 

[BASON]

Thanks guys.

2 small plays for some action tonight:

Temple +130 - Going against the grain here. Belmont is a nice story and the committee tried to make a point by letting them in, but they have not beaten anyone. Their bad losses are worse than their best wins (Murray State is the only tourney team they beat) Temple has the wing players to defend the 3, and when Belmont can not shoot the 3 well, they lose. I would like to see Belmont win, but I am not willing to bet on it. I think the wrong team is favored.

S. Dakota St. +10 -135 - Only betting this because I do not think Texas wants to be in this game at all. Sometimes the NIT is about motivation and I am willing to bet Texas does not show. While S. Dakota may be disappointed they are not in the NCAA, I am confident they will play hard to beat Texas.

 

[tcon142]

Great stuff as usual Bason. Curious to what everyone loves about the Michigan coach though? You?re not the first one I have read that thinks he?s better than Izzo however I watched all three Michigan State/Michigan games and thought he got outcoached in all three games. This last game they take 11 point lead into the second half and can hold it. Their big guy taking shots from outside three-point line that are even close to falling. Additionally izzo worked the refs the whole game which I think helped them hugely on the last crucial call that went their way on the Out is bounds play. I didn?t see Beillien doing much to make adjustments. Just my take man. Respect your opion. Let me know what I?m missing with him. Love their D. Not sure if they lose focus or if the second half adjustments do them in. Keep up the great work work man! Appreciate it.

 

[BASON]

I think he is on par with Izzo, but I also think they are 2 of the best coaches in the country. But I also think that Izzo typically has more overall talent on his team. Last year may be one of the only recent years where the recruiting classes were on par and Michigan State was top 3 in 2016. It is very hard to get great talent to buy into playing defense. Calipari was talking about this on ESPN after the selection show. He spends all his time trying to get his players to buy into defense before they even get into the offense. It is hard as many of the players coming in barely play any defense before they get to college. For this reason, I really respect coaches that get players to buy into the defensive part of the game, while being able to score enough to win ball games. There is a reason most of the top defensive teams are in the tournament. Bennett at UVA, Izzo and Beilien are great at this and why they are consistent winners. I am just impressed with what Beilien can do with the talent he has. You see me rail against Turgeon because he gets his team to buy into the defensive side of the game, but he can not coach the other side of the game. Maryland has more talent on their team than Michigan but he can not put it all together. This is why he is not in that category. I am sure assistants are a big part of this, but it is also the head coaches job to make sure he has complimentary coaches.

I will admit that I do not get to watch as many games as I used to, but I think you are seeing other programs buy into what these coaches are doing. Houston has made great strides because of their team defense. Kansas St., Oregon, VCU and Va Tech are others. Even lesser programs like Liberty and Vermont made the tourney because of their defense.

Since we are on this topic, the best 10 defense teams in the tournament are (combination of scoring defense and opponent shooting %)
UVA
Texas Tech
Houston
VCU
ODU
Wisconsin
Michigan
Michigan St
Oregon
Va Tech/Cincy/Kansas St

 

[GbPackers69]

I think he is on par with Izzo, but I also think they are 2 of the best coaches in the country. But I also think that Izzo typically has more overall talent on his team. Last year may be one of the only recent years where the recruiting classes were on par and Michigan State was top 3 in 2016. It is very hard to get great talent to buy into playing defense. Calipari was talking about this on ESPN after the selection show. He spends all his time trying to get his players to buy into defense before they even get into the offense. It is hard as many of the players coming in barely play any defense before they get to college. For this reason, I really respect coaches that get players to buy into the defensive part of the game, while being able to score enough to win ball games. There is a reason most of the top defensive teams are in the tournament. Bennett at UVA, Izzo and Beilien are great at this and why they are consistent winners. I am just impressed with what Beilien can do with the talent he has. You see me rail against Turgeon because he gets his team to buy into the defensive side of the game, but he can not coach the other side of the game. Maryland has more talent on their team than Michigan but he can not put it all together. This is why he is not in that category. I am sure assistants are a big part of this, but it is also the head coaches job to make sure he has complimentary coaches.

Since we are on this topic, the best 10 defense teams in the tournament are (combination of scoring defense and opponent shooting %)
UVA
Texas Tech
Houston
VCU
ODU
Wisconsin
Michigan
Michigan St
Oregon
Va Tech/Cincy

Hate to tell ya but NO Maryland does not have as much talent as Michigan. I notice you always blame the coach yet i have never seen him make a bad pass, take a shitty shot or not block out for rebound. I get ur a homer and all but come on man. Maryland is very very average and that's it. Blaming the coach and his assistant is BS. They can coach and tell players everything they want BUT if players do not execute it's all for nought. When they do win a game against a good team you never once gave credit to the coach but blame him for every loss? LMFAO :shrug:

 

[BASON]

Well that is your opinion, but when you have the same issues for 8 years, I think there is a pattern. It is the coaches job to get the players to perform. Anyone who does not believe coaching is a huge part of college basketball, obviously do not understand the game. And you are completely wrong, I gave Turgeon plenty of credit at the beginning of the year (go back and look) and also criticized players for not performing. Yes, recent posts are negative but I always give credit when its due, it just has not been due for a while.

 

[DZ]

As a Maryland alum who watches every game, I gotta agree with Bason on this one. I've watched year after year as Turgeon-led Maryland teams with top-tier recruiting classes underperform and fail to live up their potential. At some point the blame does have to fall on the coach. This is in stark contrast to the Gary Williams-led Maryland teams I first started following closely during my school years who would over-acheive and exceed expextations on a consistent basis. Gary always got the most (and then more) out of his talent and that is the marker of a good coach. Coaching is everything in the NCAA until you get to a certain level of Bill Self, Krzyewski and Roy Williams who have top recruits to help mask their shortcomings as in-game coaches and strategists.

 

[GbPackers69]

As a Maryland alum who watches every game, I gotta agree with Bason on this one. I've watched year after year as Turgeon-led Maryland teams with top-tier recruiting classes underperform and fail to live up their potential. At some point the blame does have to fall on the coach. This is in stark contrast to the Gary Williams-led Maryland teams I first started following closely during my school years who would over-acheive and exceed expextations on a consistent basis. Gary always got the most (and then more) out of his talent and that is the marker of a good coach. Coaching is everything in the NCAA until you get to a certain level of Bill Self, Krzyewski and Roy Williams who have top recruits to help mask their shortcomings as in-game coaches and strategists.

Just reading your first line i knew you would take his side. Now if u would have said a Rutgers Alum it may have been different

 

[tcon142]

Thanks for the response Bason, agree on a defensive minded coach. Just hear a lot of people talking Bellien up but like some coaches and some players I feel he cracks a bit under the pressure of a big game. Needs to be able to keep a lead especially being so defensive minded. See how the tourney rounds out, I like Michigan to make a run but just concerned on his Beillin's ability to match the coach on the other side for half time and in game adjustments and working the refs. Curious to see how he does if coach K or another big name is on the other side. I hope he can.

 

[BASON]

No problem, we will see how it plays out, but I always have a preference for strong defensive teams. I think Michigan can get to the Final Four.

I was not that impressed with Belmont last night, so I am starting to rethink playing against Maryland. Line is only 3 now and I think more Belmont money will roll in. Fernando can handle the big kid in the middle and I am not so sure he can handle Fernando. Maryland's length should be able to give the small guards fits on the outside and Morsell likely mans up Windler all game. Temple missed a lot of easy shots and allowed Belmont to shoot over 50%. Not many teams shoot 50% against MD. As with most games with Maryland, this game will come down to turnovers. If MD can limit turnovers and shoot a decent % they should beat Belmont. I will not be playing Belmont.

 

[BASON]

Certainly looks like the lines and the money are focused on FH unders this year. I thought a lot of lines were set low and just about all of them are moving down. Scrubbing the numbers a little harder than usual and will be more selective than in prior years. Seems to be a popular play now which scares me. Working on that so not playing anything tonight.

 

[boilermaker]

I took North Carolina at +700

 

[GbPackers69]

Thanks for the response Bason, agree on a defensive minded coach. Just hear a lot of people talking Bellien up but like some coaches and some players I feel he cracks a bit under the pressure of a big game. Needs to be able to keep a lead especially being so defensive minded. See how the tourney rounds out, I like Michigan to make a run but just concerned on his Beillin's ability to match the coach on the other side for half time and in game adjustments and working the refs. Curious to see how he does if coach K or another big name is on the other side. I hope he can.

Beillien's Wolverines made it to final game last year so yeah i'm thinking he is just fine no matter who is on other side as coach. Nobody was beating Villanova last year. ANY other team Michigan plays and they had a good shot for the title.

 

[BASON]

Can't argue with UNC +700 Boilermaker. Just do not like the fact that they will likely have to go through KY and UVA just to get to the final, but they certainly have the talent. Really hoping for UVA vs UNC in the Final Four.

 

[DZ]

No problem, we will see how it plays out, but I always have a preference for strong defensive teams. I think Michigan can get to the Final Four.

I was not that impressed with Belmont last night, so I am starting to rethink playing against Maryland. Line is only 3 now and I think more Belmont money will roll in. Fernando can handle the big kid in the middle and I am not so sure he can handle Fernando. Maryland's length should be able to give the small guards fits on the outside and Morsell likely mans up Windler all game. Temple missed a lot of easy shots and allowed Belmont to shoot over 50%. Not many teams shoot 50% against MD. As with most games with Maryland, this game will come down to turnovers. If MD can limit turnovers and shoot a decent % they should beat Belmont. I will not be playing Belmont.

At +5/5.5 where this opened, I think you take Belmont without thinking twice. Now, it's a stay-away for me and I'll look to in-game wagering to get a bet down near that original number. I'm still in agreement with you initial inclination that Maryland will not make good use of the rest-advantage and the advanced-scouting of Belmont in last night's game.

 

[tcon142]

Beillien's Wolverines made it to final game last year so yeah i'm thinking he is just fine no matter who is on other side as coach. Nobody was beating Villanova last year. ANY other team Michigan plays and they had a good shot for the title.

agree had a great run last year also thanks for a hail mary (was in the flamingo when he hit that shot, place went nuts) and probably a little under the radar. I'm looking for a reason to move em up, originally from Michigan so like to see the Big 10 do well. Just was curious to what everyone sees in Beillien that I might be missing. I've read some guys who thinks he surpassed Izzo, just don't see it myself, but hope he proves me wrong. Good luck to ya pack!