Trying to Hit the Spot - My NFL Plays

[johnnyonthespot]

YTD: 0-1

Going to try and keep all my NFL plays in one thread this season. I have been bad at keeping track of my record so hopefully this will make it a little easier.

Started off on the wrong foot on Thursday going with the Saints. Thought the Packers would come out flat and they . . .um . . . didn't. Still, in the end I was 1 yard away from the victory.

Going with these in week 1:

Baltimore -1 (1 unit) - I think that the Ravens are still trying to figure out how they blew a 21-7 halftime lead to the Steelers last January. You can be sure that they've just been stewing over it ever since. The fact is that these are two good teams but they are going in opposite directions - the Ravens are younger (Ray Lewis notwithstanding) and are on the rise while the Steelers have seen their best days with this current core group. This is the year the Ravens take the reins over the AFC north, and I believe that it starts with tomorrow.

Bears +3 (1 unit) - My Bears, as always, get no respect. That's just fine with me though, as I will continue to cash in on the rest of the public's disbelief. They were 11-5 ATS last year and I look for a similar performance this year. Mark my words - this Bears offense is going to surprise people this year. I have watched the preseason (and yes I know that doesn't count for much) but I can tell you for sure that the offensive line is much improved. It's also year 2 of the Martz system so I look for Cutler and the returning receivers to look more comfortable this season. On the other hand, the D does worry me a bit. It's essentially the same D as last year - just a year older. Hopefully Briggs really does put the contract stuff on hold and play like he's capable. On the other side of the ball is a very capable Atlanta team. They are beyond tough to beat at home but are quite vulnerable away from the dome. At the least the Bears will keep this within a FG, but I think they win it outright.

That's all for the noon games. Back later with the 3:00s.

BOL this season!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding a WTF parlay for .25 units and a slightly less WTF teaser for .25 units:

Parlay:
Bears/Falcons Over 41
Bills +4
Browns -7
Cardinals -7
Seahawks +6
Vikings +9

7-pt Teaser
Ravens +6
Bears +10
Texans -2
Browns Pk

Leans in the 3:00 games:
Cardinals -7
Seahawks +6
Vikings +9

Haven't pulled the trigger on any of those yet.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Week 2
YTD: 2-1, +.8 units
Parlays/Teasers: 0-2, -.3 units
Total: + .5 units

Just one play so far, and it shouldn't come as a surprise:

Bears +7 (2 units)
Once again thank you thank you Joe Public for continuing to not give my Bears any respect. The only other 1-0 team that is more than a 4 point dog is San Diego. The Chargers are going up against a 1-0 Patriots team that lit up the Dolphins, while the Bears are going against an 0-1 Saints team whose defense looked beyond underwhelming against the Packers last week. In what realm of reality does that make sense? Not going to lie, I actually expect the Bears to lose this game but I won't be at all surprised if they win it, and 7 points is just a gift; one I'll happily accept.

Still looking at the rest of the card.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Holy cow; 10 minutes after I get the bet down the Bears line at Bodog drops to +5.5. :scared

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding another play.

Alright everyone, let's play a game. It's called "let's dramatically overreact to week 1!" We have the defending AFC West champion Chiefs visiting the Lions, who have not had a winning season since 2000. Yes I understand the Chiefs looked really really bad last week at home and that the Lions are improved overall and looked good on the road. Doesn't change the fact that Detroit has absolutely no business giving up 8.5 points to anyone!

Chiefs +8.5 (1 unit)

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Ugh, well Jamal Charles being carted off is probably the end of the Chiefs season as well as this particular bet.

The Bears have been very schizophrenic so far today. Hopefully they can find more of a groove in the 2nd half.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Well, not much to say. 2 bad calls. I'll try to regroup and get 'em back in the afternoon games. Still looking the card over.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Gonna go with these two for the afternoon:

49ers +3 (1 unit) - Always love getting points at home. Both teams looked pretty decent last week. Think the Boys may still be a little shell-shocked from the lost last week.

Houston -3 (1 unit) - You can chalk me up as a Texans believer. Miami . . .eh not so much.

Let's get things turned around!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated record:

YTD: 3-3-1, -1.3 units
Parlays/Teasers: 0-2, -.5 units
Total: -1.8 units

Really thought I was gonna sweep the afternoon set, but the late Cowboys rally blew that. At least I still got the push and stopped the bleeding from the early game debachles.

Tonight I'm going with Atlanta. Atlanta in the dome has been near unbeatable the last couple years, so catching 3 at home with them is something I just can't turn down. I think this is another overreaction to week 1; let's hope it works out better than the Chiefs game.

Atlanta +3 (1 unit)

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated record
YTD: 4-3 -.4 units
Parlays/Teasers: 0-2 -.5 units
Total: -.9 units

Decent recovery in the afternoon and night games after a dismal start yesterday. Really caught a break with Vick going down but of course that followed the terrible break of Jamal Charles going down earlier. Of course, it's hard to say that a game which ended 48-3 really hinged on one player. But anyway, I guess it all does even out.

Going with the G-Men tonight to get back to even for the year. Looking for a bounce-back game from them and Eli, although that loss doesn't look quite as bad as it did since it appears that the Redskins are better than most people thought. The Rams, however, look to be every bit as bad as they were expected to be, especially if (as expected) Jackson does not suit up. Giants should win this one by double-digits.

Giants -7 (1 unit)

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated record:
YTD: 5-3 +.5 units
Parlays/Teasers: 0-2 -.5 units
Total: Even Steven

Clawed my way back to even last night on the strength of a lucky bounce off of a backwards pass. Not the way I capped it but I'll take it.

Some early leans for next week:

Cinny -3
Browns -3
Panthers -3.5
Raiders +3.5
Falcons +1
Bears +4

Probably won't play all of those, so still need to narrow it down a bit.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Out of town this week and didn't get back in time to lay down my wagers. Didn't really matter though as my 6 leans were 3-3, so I guess I just saved myself the juice.

Tonight I'm going with the Colts. They are desperate for a victory and should at least be able to keep this one close. Only the most elite teams should be laying double-digits on the road and the Steelers, while still a good team, no longer qualify for that IMO.

Colts +12 (1 unit)

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated record:
YTD: 6-3 +1.4 units
Parlays/Teasers: 0-2 -.5 units
Total: +.9 units

Nice when a game plays out pretty much how you expect - Colts putting up a good fight and getting beat by the better team in the end.

Really don't like either side on the Monday Night Game so I'm most likely done till next week.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Going out of town again this weekend so wanted to make sure I got my bets in early. Going with these 3:

Browns Pk (1 unit) - This is a matchup of two teams that nobody quite knows what to make of. Both teams looked bad on opening day against teams that look to be in the lower 3rd of the NFL but then have rallied to win 2 straight. The Titans decisive win over the Ravens was definitely more impressive than the Browns beating either the Colts or the Dolphins, but remember that the Browns were without Hillis this past Sunday and still eked out a gutty come from behind win. Until CJ shows the first inkling that he deserves his massive contract, and until the Titans get it done on the road, I will continue to be a doubter.

Texans -4 (1 unit) - Continuation of my rationale from Sunday night. Steelers are no longer an elite team in the NFL but I believe that the Texans finally are. I look for a good bounce-back after the tough loss against the Saints last weekend. Texans win by double-digits.

Seahawks +5 (1 unit) - Falcons have shown time and time again that they are just not the same team on the road. Seahawks are nothing to write home about, but at home they have a knack for making the competition play down to their level. This should be a close game and I'll happily take the 5.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding this parlay for 1 unit:

Bears ML -280
Texans ML -190
1 unit to win 1.05

70% sure that the Texans win by double-digits but 90% sure they at least win outright, so a mini-hedge here. Bears spread makes me nervous. Expecting a bounce-back game from them this week but was also expecting it last week and didn't get it. IMO the 7-point line is begging for Carolina money so that should be a good sign for the Bears. Still, this is a very schizophrenic team right - especially the offensive line that held up so well against Atlanta but has just caved the last 2 weeks. Still, with a couple weeks of film on Cam Newton I have faith that this is the week the D makes him look like the rookie he is.

GL2 all!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record
YTD: 8-4 +2.2 units
Parlays/Teasers: 1-2 +.55 units
Total: +2.75 units

Well, I'm not sure yet if I'm officially a Titans believer but I definitely believe that the Browns are not good. Should have realized that after they barely eked out a win against a bad Dolphins team but of course I didn't.

Otherwise, a nice day. Bears and Texans games weren't exactly as I capped them but I'll take 'em both. Good thing I shied away from the spread on the parlay - that Newton TD with 4 seconds left would have been gut-wrenching.

Tonight I like the Ravens, but was really hoping for a 3-point line. 5 is just too much, so I'm going with my first totals play of the season. Jets D is still good but is no longer the unstoppable force it once was. Think the Ravens can put up high 20s on them. On the other side, I just hope that the good Mark Sanchez shows up tonight:

Ravens/Jets Over 43 (1 unit)

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record
YTD: 9-4 +3.1 units
Parlays/Teasers: 1-2 +.55 units
Total: +3.65 units

Always nice when you hit the over before half time. If only they could all be that easy . . .

Like Tampa tomorrow but not enough to lay the 10.5 so I think I'm gonna call it a week. Hope to continue this run next weekend.

GL All!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Finally! It took 5 weeks but I finally like the card this week. Probably means I'm about to get slaughtered. Going with these for sure:

Colts -3 (1 unit)- I will wait to play this until later this week just to make sure the Colts don't do something stupid like play Kerry Collins. Painter is no world-beater but he looked better this week than last and with continued reps with the first team there should be continued improvement. Chiefs got their win last week but I don't see them carrying that momentum onto the road. Colts are the more desperate team and they will show more urgency and get their first W of the season.

Bills +3 (1 unit) - What a difference a week makes huh? Last week they Bills were the toast of the NFL: only undefeated team in the AFC and lots of talk about playoff football returning to Buffalo. Now, one bad loss later and the Bills find themselves underdogs to a 1-3 Eagles team. Bills were pretty tough at home last year against everyone and the Eagles are constantly shooting themselves in the foot. Bills will keep this one close at least and I think they win outright.

Denver +4 (1 unit)- There's only a handful of teams I trust to lay points on the road and this year's Chargers team is not one of them. Broncos are no prize but they are always tough at home and with a division-rivalry game they should keep this one close. Again, though, I'm going to wait until a little later in the week to play this to make sure Orton is still starting. When the "start Tebow" camp finally wins out in Denver I will look to bet against the Broncos every game until that doomed experiment comes to an end.

Falcons +6 (1 unit) - Sensing a common theme here? The Falcons are not the same team as last year and it shows. But they are still extremely tough in the Dome and I will continue to ride them there when they are catching points until they give me a reason not to. Add in the extreme revenge factor from the embarrassing playoff loss last year and I think we get Atlanta's best effort. This one will come down to the wire.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Looks like this will be judgement day for me today. Adding these:

Saints/Panthers Over 51.5 - This pretty much all comes down to the Panthers getting off to a good start on offense. If Carolina jumps out to a lead it will force Brees to throw the ball, and he shouldn't have a hard time shredding their porous defense. On the other hand, if Saints get out to a lead they will try to take the air out of the ball and keep the ball away from Cam. That's obviously not what we want. Still, Saints D is nothing spectacular so it's most likely that Panthers can get into the mid-20s at home and New Orleans should be able to keep up.

Titans +4 (bought from 3.5) - Still not officially a believer in the Titans, but am going to continue to go against the Steelers until the public realizes they're not still a powerhouse. You have a 3-1 team visiting a 2-2 team - line should be a pick 'em so catching 3.5 is a gift. Think they win outright but I'll take the points to be safe.

49ers -3 - This Tampa team has a knack for playing ugly but finding a way to win. But the 49ers are playing much better ball under Harbaugh. They are a legitimate 3-1, albeit they've accomplished it in an unconventional way (gave away the Cowboys game but stole the Eagles game). Truthfully, I'm not particularly enamored with either team but I think the 49ers are rising while the Bucs are the same mediocre team they were last year.

Good luck everyone!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 11-6 +2.8 units
Parlays/Teasers: 1-2 +.55 units
Total: +3.35 units

2-2 on the early games. Colts and Eagles both showed that they are experts on finding ways to lose. The Titans are going on my "do not bet on or against list" - I clearly have no read on them.

Good early start for the 49ers.