Updated Record:
YTD: 20-11 +5.1 units
Parlays/Teasers: 2-4 -.30 units
Total: +4.8 units
Heading out of town this weekend to visit some family down in Huntsville so I'm getting taking care of these earlier than usual.
Like the card again this week; hope it works out better for me this time than it did the last time I said I really liked it.
Cincinnati ML +130 (1 unit) - 3 weeks ago I put the Titans on my "do not bet on or against list" because I felt I had no read on them. Well, for better or worse I think I do now so I'm taking them off. In hindsight the outcome of the Titan games no longer looks as random as I originally thought. They have wins against Baltimore, Cleveland, Denver, and Indianapolis. So basically 3 terrible teams and the Ravens. Their losses have been against Houston, Pitt, and Jacksonville and only the Jacksonville one was close. All 3 of those teams are in the top 7 defensively (by YPG) , so pretty much when they have come up against a good D they have lost. The exception, of course, is the Ravens, who are actually #1. I'm willing to throw that game out for 2 reasons. First, the Ravens have proven themselves to be inconsistent (just look at their Jekyll and Hyde routine this past Sunday) and they were just coming off a big emotional trouncing of Pitt the prior weekend. Secondly, the Titans still had Kenny Britt at that point and he's now gone for the year.
But this isn't just an "anti-Titans" play. The Bengals are quietly putting together a solid, if unspectacular campaign. It's true that the only "good" team they've beaten was the Bills, but still 3-1 on the road is good no matter who you've played. I won't make any excuses for their loss against a bad Broncos team.
Bottom line is that Cincinnati is currently the #4 defense in terms of YPG and from what I've seen they are for real. CJ and the Titans run game have been a complete mess so far this year and no one has run successfully against this Bengals front 4 anyway. I just don't see the Titans doing much offensively against the Bengals. On the other hand, hopefully the extra rest has served Cedric Benson well and he will gash the Titans line. I see the Bengals winning this one in a low scoring 17-13 type game.
If I'm wrong here rest assured the Titans WILL return to my "do not bet on or against" list and remain there for the remainder of the season.
New Orleans -8.5 (1 unit)
In general I don't like laying more than a TD, but this is a great spot for the Saints here. You can bet that Payton and Brees have a big-time chip on their shoulder after the St. Louis debachle on Sunday. They also remember the close loss against these Bucs and have every incentive to take all their frustrations out here. The Bucs - I just don't think they're a very good team - especially away from home. My Bears had every opportunity to put the hurt on this team in London 9 days ago but didn't and let the Bucs back in it even though they were dominated all day. The Saints won't be as forgiving. Bottom line is I don't see Tampa scoring more than 17 here and I don't see the Saints scoring less than 30.
Bills -1 (1 unit)
This one's pretty simple reasoning. The Bills are a good home team (4-0) and the Jets are a bad road team (0-3). I believe that both of those trends will continue this week.
Oakland -8 (1 unit)
I vowed earlier this season that as soon as Tebow became the starter I would be betting heavily against him. I couldn't bring myself to back an atrocious Dolphins team 2 weeks ago but I am kicking myself for not going with my gut and backing the Lions last week. Well I won't make that mistake again. There remains the chance that someday Tim Tebow will develop into an NFL quarterback, but he simply isn't one now. The gameplan will be to keep him from running and make him beat you with his arm and I don't think he's capable of doing it. On the other side, now with 2 weeks of practice I think Carson Palmer will have the Raiders offense operating at least serviceably. Raiders win big and Broncos fans start clamoring for the Brady Quinn era.
Bears +8.5
I have been laying off betting on Bears games for a while now since this team has been so schizophrenic but this is just too many points here. These teams know each other well. Though they're not in the same division, by a quirk of the schedule they've played each other the last 4 years. The margin of victory in those games was 5, 4, 4, and 3 (with the Bears winning 3 of the 4 matchups). Don't see any reason why this one wouldn't be another close game. Public is unimpressed by the Bears (which is largely deserved) and are now re-enamored with Vick and the Eagles after the beatdown they just administered to the Cowboys. But just ask the Saints how well a beatdown on national TV translated into success the following week. This Eagles team thrives on adversity and don't fare nearly as well as favorites. Similarly, the Bears loving being the underdog. I do think that the Eagles will get the job done here, but the Bears will give them a game.
GLTA!
