Trying to Hit the Spot - My NFL Plays

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 35-19 +12.3 units
Parlays/Teasers: 4-7 +1.1 units
Total: +13.4 units

Had a great day Thursday and looking to keep it going tomorrow.

Going with these:

Titans -3 (1 unit) - Titans are the epitome of mediocrity, but this year they've generally handled inferior teams and crumbled to good ones. Tampa Bay is one such inferior team, especially on the road. Bucs got up for the game against GB last week; they won't be up for this one.

Bengals -7 (1 unit) - The Bengals are similar to the Titans but are a better team overall. Over the last 2 weeks the Bengals proved two things: 1) they are knocking on the door of being one of the elite teams in the AFC; 2) they are absolutely not there yet. Think they will take out some frustrations on a Browns team that should have a lot of trouble moving the ball against them.

Bears + 4 (1 unit) - Vince Young made me bet this game. He showed last week that we all tend to overestimate the impact of one player going down, no matter who that players is (except, apparently, Peyton Manning). It isn't as if the Bears were an offensive juggernaut with Cutler - they were winning by putting together a couple of solid drives per game and then relying on solid D and special teams. Think that Caleb Hanie is still capable of that. I picked the Raiders to win this game when I looked at the Bears schedule before week 1, and I still they will probably pull out a close win. But this game should be at a Pk or +1 and I think that the extra couple points are solely due to Cutler's loss, and I think it's too much. Bears will keep this one close.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding:

Vikings/Falcons Over 44 (1 Unit) - Even without AP, the Vikings should be able to muster at least 17. Vikings D is giving up over 30/game on the road. Seeing this one as 31-17 or 28-20.

 

[VMANIA]

Like them all:

Like them all:

Was already on Cincy and Bears, and am adding a 3 * tailer on tennessee, cuz I agree with your write-up, so GL to US

I will be at the Bengals-Browns game tomorrow and will give a full report upon request LOL

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Have fun at the game V! Bring us back a W!

:toast:

 

[VMANIA]

I will my man:

I will my man:

Lets hope the sloppy disinterested Carson Palmer shows up, if that versin shows tomorrow, Bears will win SU...Raiders only 3-14 ATS last 17 as home fave, so I like our play there.......I say the Bears eke out a 24-23 win

good luck tomorrow:toast:

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Eh, what the heck, adding a few more:

Bears +140 ML (1 unit) - Guess I'm riding the Hanie express hard this week. Oakland is all kinds of beat up right now, especially in the secondary.

Houston -7 (1 unit) - Similar logic to the Bears play, don't think that the Texans will miss Schaub as much as expected. They get Johnson back today and still have an outstanding running game and defense. And bottom line is that this is the league's worst offense going up against the league's best defense. Just don't see the Jags doing much on offense today. Texans roll 20-6 as long as Leinart doesn't turn into a turnover machine; if he plays well at all this one could get ugly.

Really like this teaser too (3 units to win 4):
Bengals ML
Falcons -2
Bears + 10

Turned into a big day for me. Here's hoping it turns out well! :toast:

 

[Kane of TN]

Thanks for the write-ups, made for a good read - going to tail you on a couple.

Best of Luck today!!!

:0074

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Thanks Kane. BOL today to you too!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Bengals, kindly remove your craniums from your rectums.

That is all.

Thank you.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 36-23-1 +9.2 units
Parlays/Teasers: 5-7 +5.1 units
Total: +14.3 units

Late Bears TD brought home the teaser and kept this day from being a bloodbath. That TD was one of the few breaks to go my way today. Both the Bengals and the Vikings found themselves at the 3-yard-line late in the 4th and neither could punch it in. Hanie with an absolutely inexcusable pick on 2nd and 1 from the Raiders 6 with 30 seconds left in the first half turned that entire game around. Oh well; still eked out a positive day so can't complain too much. Apologies to any that tailed my single plays and didn't make it up on the teaser.

Staying away from the SNF game for the moment. May jump in at the half if something looks good.

Leaning Giants and the points tomorrow night but haven't decided yet.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Giants +7.5 (1 unit)
Giants +260 ML (.4 units)

Gotta be honest, I don't love this play. Giants are beat up right now and Bradshaw being out really hurts here. But they are a desperate team and those are always dangerous. Think they will keep it close tonight and it's worth a small shot to get the good price on the ML.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 36-25-1 +7.8 units
Parlays/Teasers: 5-7 +5.1 units
Total: +12.9 units

There are games that thrill you and in a few breathless moments remind you why it is you watch and love sports so much. Last night was not one of those games. Now let us never speak of it again.

Like these so far:

Miami -3 (1 unit) - Miami is playing well lately and coming off the extra rest; they gave the Cowboys all they could handle on Thanksgiving. Oakland is still all kinds of beat up and making the tough cross-country trip. Miami stops the run well and I don't think Palmer can beat them by himself with a cast of 2nd-tier WRs.

Bengals +7 (1 unit) - Also thinking about this one on the money line but that may be a bridge too far. They looked less than stellar against the Browns last week but I can attribute that to Cleveland playing pretty decently and maybe a look-ahead to this week. That D continues to impress me. This season through 11 games they have allowed a total of 83 2nd half points (3, 17, 7, 0, 9, 10, 7, 3, 13, 14, 3); that's just over 7.5 points per game. That will keep you in just about every game folks. I also continue to believe that the Steelers, while still a good team, are no longer elite and on their way down. Throw in the fact that this is a revenge matchup from 3 weeks ago and I will be very surprised if the Bengals don't at least hang tough in this one.

Bucs -3 (1 unit) - I'm kind of gritting my teeth on this one as it's hard to back a team which has lost 5 in a row and 6 of 7. But the Bucs are still fighting and have played better of late and at 3-2 they are still pretty decent at home (I'm not counting the "home" game against the Bears in London) and already have wins against both New Orleans and Atlanta. Carolina is 1-4 on the road, picking up their first win last week against the winless Colts. Even so, they had to withstand a late Colts barrage to hold onto that one. Don't see them winning 2 in a row on the road.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding:

Seattle +140 (1 unit) - Tough long trip on a short weak for a demoralized team. Eagles go down tonight.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 37-25-1 +9.2 units
Parlays/Teasers: 5-7 +5.1 units
Total: +14.3 units

Nice to get back in the win column with a ML dog, and one with relatively little stress.

R.I.P. 2011 Eagles season. And to think a few weeks ago I thought the Bears win over them was huge for potential playoff tiebreaker implications.

 

[VMANIA]

Nice hit Johnny

Nice hit Johnny

I was on Sea Birds as well.......dont give up hope on Cincy just yet my man, I think they shock the world this SUnday......Steelers D without Polamalu just isnt the same thing and all intelligent Steelers fans know this.......

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Wish I would have held off on the Buc game with Freeman questionable. Not that he's Aaron Rodgers but don't think the Bucs win with the backup. Here's hoping he plays.

Adding this:

Vikings +1 (1 unit) - I know, I know. I said I was done betting against Tebow magic, but this line really bothers me. This line should be Broncos -3 or -4, especially with AP out. IMO the -1 is just begging for Broncos money so give me the Vikes. They actually have not been a bad team at home and I think they get it done today; maybe the last game they win all year.

Still thinking it over but leaning towards Giants and the points in the afternoon games.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 38-28-1 +7.1 units
Parlays/Teasers: 5-7 +5.1 units
Total: +12.2 units

Bad day yesterday; Miami came to play but that was about it. Caught a bad break with Freeman not being able to go and of course fell victim to Tebow magic yet again. Someday I'll learn. And I don't even know what to say about Cincinnati; they just got outclassed yesterday.

Trying to rebound tonight with this:

Jags ML +150 (1 unit) - OK, I do not have the numbers on this in front of me but in my own observation it seems like whenever a team changes coaches or managers midway through the season the team seems to have a very temporary resurgence. I think losing teams get into a bit of a rut and just seems like some change, any change, ends up being good for them. So that's part of it. The other part of it is that San Diego is just not a good team right now. Really expecting Rivers to struggle against the Jags D. Jags win a low-scoring game.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 38-29-1 +6.1 units
Parlays/Teasers: 5-7 +5.1 units
Total: +11.2 units

In a little bit of a funk right now; let's see if we can break out of it tonight.

Browns/Steelers Under 40 (1 unit) - I bet very few totals, and I especially hate betting unders. But I think it's the only decent play tonight. Browns, for all of their numerous faults, have a fairly decent defense. And their atrocious offense should find little to no traction against the Pitt D. Unless the Browns turn into turnover machines, this one has all the hallmarks of a 17-6 snoozefest.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 39-29-1 +7.0 units
Parlays/Teasers: 5-7 +5.1 units
Total: +12.1 units

Very nice to get back in the win column.

Don't love the card this Sunday, but there's a couple I do like:

Titans +4 (1 unit) - Both teams are playing well lately. Chris Johnson seems to have finally remembered that he's Chris Johnson and the Saints have been solid in front of national audiences the last couple weeks. But the Saints are simply not the same team away from home; so far this year they have exactly 1 road win of more than 3 points - at Jacksonville back in early October. Since then they've won by 3 at Carolina and Atlanta and lost in a stunner at St. Louis. Titans will hang tough in this one.

Bears +3.5 (1 unit) - Once more into the breach! I am 0-4 this year betting against Tim Tebow. The difference here is that this time when Tebow pulls off his magic and the Broncos win on a last-second FG I'll still get the cover. As a Bears fan that game against the Chiefs last week was one of the most painful sports-watching experiences of my life. The Bears generally perform the best when the least is expected of them, so I'm hoping that's the case again here.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding:

Carolina +3 (1 unit) - Can't resist another home dog. Atlanta is playing better of late but so is Carolina. The Panthers porous D concerns but, except for a big lapse against the Titans, they have hung tough at home. Falcons a mediocre road team. Panthers will keep this one close and have a good shot at the upset.