Trying to Hit the Spot - My NFL Plays

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 23-13 +6.2 units
Parlays/Teasers: 2-4 -.30 units
Total: +5.9 units

Decided to add one more play for 1 unit and a WTF parlay for .4 units.

Bears/Philly Over 47.5 (1 unit): The risk here is that the Bears left their offense back in Chicago. I know that the Bears D is not what it has been in years past, so I have no doubt that the Eagles can get to 27. So the question becomes, can the Bears get to 21? I believe that they can. I'm gambling that the improved offensive line play from the past 2 games has not been an illusion. Martz has switched back to the max protect formations that helped the Bears have success last year (why he ever went away from them is anyone's guess). If given enough time Cutler can put together at least 3-4 solid drives over the course of a game, and if there are any running lanes at all Forte will find a way to get some positive yardage. I have this one capped at 27-23.

And a WTF parlay for .4 unit to win 2.4 units:
Bears +275
Over 47.5

As much as I like the Bears plus the points and feel it's a legitimately solid wager, THIS parlay is a definite homer play. I think the Bears have about a 25% chance of winning this game, but since I'm not getting 4-1 odds on the ML I don't think it's worth it. So I'm adding the over to give me the odds I need. If it turns out that I hit the ML and miss the over - I will just be thrilled with a Bears victory and will come out ahead anyway from my 2-unit Bears +8 wager.

A sweep would be awful nice though . . .

GL and Go Bears!

 

[VMANIA]

Congrats on that nice Bengals win johnny...I got 4 * on Bears + 8.5 and 1 * on ML......Im thinking a 27-24 game, lets see what happens

continued success

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 25-13 +8.9 units
Parlays/Teasers: 3-4 +2.1 units
Total: +11 units

Thanks V and nice hit for you too tonight.

This is what I'm talking about! Been looking for a day like this all year. My team gets a big win and I get a clean sweep to boot!

Hope to keep it rolling next weekend.

GL guys!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Ah, November. Time to turn the clocks back, the start of college basketball. and Thursday night NFL football!

Don't like either side in tomorrow night's game. Or, more accurately, I can make a case for both sides but I don't trust either of them. There is one play I like though:

Raiders/Chargers Over 48 (1 unit): Both these teams are really struggling defensively right now. Over their last 4 games, the Raiders are giving up over 25 PPG while the Chargers are giving up almost 30 PPG. With McFadden expected to be sidelined for yet another week, I see the Raiders once again relying on Palmer's arm. I think he either breaks through the mediocre Chargers D and Rivers is forced to counter, or he continues to throw picks and gives the Chargers a lot of short fields. Either way it should mean a lot of points. This one strikes me as a 31-21 type of game.

Also thinking about teasing to Over 41 and Chargers Pk but not sure if I want to pull the trigger on that or not.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Putting another unit on the Chargers/Raiders Over 48. Just see a lot of passing in this one.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 25-14 +6.9 units
Parlays/Teasers: 3-4 +2.1 units
Total: +9 units

Ugh, that was painful. 41 points through 3 quarters, Palmers gets picked in the red zone early in the 4th and the next thing you know it's a 4th quarter shutout. Where was this Raiders team against the Broncos on Sunday?

Going with these on Sunday:

Houston -3.5 (1 unit): Texans may very well be the best team in the AFC, especially after they get Johnson back. Great defense (currently #1 overall in the NFL), competent QB, and solid run tandem. The Bucs peaked this season with the home win over the Saints. The slide continues this weekend.

Chiefs -3.5 (1 unit): Hesitant to do this because KC is a very schizophrenic team, but really feel like they bounce back after the very bad loss last week.

Bears -3 (1 unit): Almost any other week I'd be expecting a letdown from the Bears this week after the big win on national TV, but this game is even bigger for the Bears. Last month the Lions ended a 6-game losing streak to the Bears and decided to talk a lot of trash about it. The Bears will definitely be ready this week. If the Bears lose they will essentially be 3 games back with 7 to play and effectively looking at the 6 seed at best. I also expected this line to be at a Pk so in my opinion installing the Bears as 3-point favorites is just begging people to take the Lions. The big concern here is the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the Bears this season. If the team of the past 3 games that has shut down the run and protected Cutler shows up again on Sunday, the Bears will win this game. If not, it will be trouble.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 27-15 +7.7 units
Parlays/Teasers: 3-4 +2.1 units
Total: +9.8 units

2-1 today; I'll take it. All the same; go f*&% yourself KC. Thanks for that.

Tonight after looking at it a lot I really like the Jets. 4-0 team at home and their big weakness (QB) is also the Pats weakness. This Patriots team is not longer elite. Not sure the Jets are either but think they're good enough tonight.

Jets -1 (2 units).

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding another WTF parlay:

Jets -1/Over 47.5 (.8 units)

 

[johnnyonthespot]

2H Play:

Jets/Patriots Over 23.5 (1 unit) - Both offenses got warmed up at the end of the half and I think that will carry over.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 28-16 +6.6 units
Parlays/Teasers: 3-5 +1.3 units
Total: +7.9 units

Jets may be the new team that I have absolutely no read on. Show up when I expect them to fold and vice versa.

Tonight I don't like either side. The Packers have pretty much destroyed every team at home so I just can't go against them. On the other hand it is a rivalry game so there's always the chance that it's closer than you'd expect. So going with this:

7-point teaser:
Pack -7
Over 43.5

These "home-team faves plus the Over" teasers always seem like free money but have been anything but the last few national games (Pats/Jets yesterday, Raiders/Chargers, and Bears/Eagles). Hoping it's time for a fave to come out and roll. This seems like the matchup for it to happen.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 28-16 +6.6 units
Parlays/Teasers: 4-5 +2.3 units
Total: +8.9 units

Never want to complain about a win, but once again I find that the only time I ever hit a teaser is when I would have hit the SU parlay anyway. Still, happy to get back to close to even for the weekend. At first glance I like next week's card a lot more. Back in a couple days.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

In the last 2 weeks I am 0-2 on games involving the Jets and 0-2 on games involving the Broncos so naturally these 2 teams are playing each other tomorrow night.

This line opened at 4.5 and has been driven ever upward since then. I wish I had gotten in then but I am still going to hold my nose and take the Jets -7 here.

I sound like a broken record I'm sure. Right now the only thing that the Broncos can do on offense is run the ball. They have done so very successfully the last couple weeks and it has left me wondering why (both weeks) the Raiders and Chiefs did not stack the box and force Tebow to beat them with his arm. So here I am wondering the same thing again. Fortunately, I really do feel that the Jets are up to the task. However ugly they have looked offensively the one thing that they have done consistently all year is stop the run. If they do so here I can't see Tebow tearing up their pass D. On the other side, I think that the Jets will do enough offensively to get by. I see a lowscoring game overall and something like a 20-10 Jets victory.

Jets -7 (1 unit)

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding the following teaser for 1 unit to win 2:

Jets Pk
Packers -7
49ers -3
Bears +3.5

And of course since I pretty much only ever win a teaser when I would have won the parlay anyway, adding this one for .2 units to win 1.5 units:

Jets ML
Packers -14
49ers -10
Bears -3

Really, really hoping the Jets don't lay an egg tonight.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 28-17 +5.6 units
Parlays/Teasers: 4-7 +1.1 units
Total: +6.7 units

And the egg has been laid . . .

I still don't understand how Tebow is doing this but I'm done betting against it. The Jets D did stop the run all night apart from that last drive, and you can hardly blame them given how much they were on the field. It seems like teams that play the Broncos gameplan ultra-conservatively, thinking that they won't need many points. IMO that's exactly the opposite of what you should do. You play aggressively and try to make Tebow play from behind against you. If you turn the ball over more as a result it shouldn't hurt you that much since the Denver offense is only going to put together a couple drives all night. In any case, a drive that goes 40 yards and ends in an INT is the same field-position wise as a 3-and-out. It's actually better though because then your D gets to rest.

No matter. I will be staying far away from both the Jets and Broncos for the rest of the year and will probably only watch Tebow one more time - when my Bears go into Denver in a couple weeks.

Still thinking about Sunday. Will shake this one off and get back on track.

GL!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Out of town for turkey day and only have my new Kindle Fire, so don't feel like a lengthy write-up on the virtual keyboard, so this will be brief.

Looked over the card a ton this week and decided I like a lot of dogs.

Redskins +8 (1 unit) and +290 Ml (.4 units) - All I can say is this is a gut play. Skins have been competitive at home and Boys due for a clunker.

Panthers +7 (1 unit) - Lions will win but ugly ss they'll be looking ahead to the Green Bay matchup on Thursday.

Bengals +7 (1 unit) - Ravens will have trouble against the Bengal D. Expect a low scoring game so I'll take the points.

Titans +7 (1 unit) - The bad OT loss and playcalling questions will haunt the Falcons here. Titans with new hope for the division thanks to the Schaub injury.

As always, GL everyone!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 30-19 +6.0 units
Parlays/Teasers: 4-7 +1.1 units
Total: +7.1 units

Strange day. Minorly positive day that was just a couple plays away from 5-0 or 0-5 that ended 2-2-1. Carolina blowing both the lead and cover combined with Gano missing the FG in OT was a pretty brutal 1-2 punch early, but at least I got a big break with the very improbable Titan backdoor cover. Thinking about KC tonight but not sure yet. Either be back kn a few hours or once I figure out my Turkey Day plays.

GL all!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Glad I stayed off the Chiefs last night. That team might not win another game.

First play for Turkey Day:

Green Bay -7 (2 units) Saw this one at 6.5 early this morning and in the hour it took me to jump on it the line had already moved to 7. Oh well, I don't think it will matter. The Lions are a decent team but they are not as good as they think they are. They have made a habit this year of falling behind by 20 points and then rallying when the opponent lets up. That won't happen here. I just don't see the Lions D stopping Rogers much. Also considering a 1H play too but not sure yet.

Leaning towards the Dolphins in the 2nd game but still thinking about it.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! May your plates be plentiful, your pants loose, and the arguments with your relatives few.

Adding these:

Packers 1H -4 (1 unit) - Rarely if ever play 1st half plays but I've just seen this script too many times with the Lions this year. They fall behind early then make adjustments and come back in the 2H. Think the same thing will happen here, minus the 2H comeback.

Dolphins +7 (1 unit) - Miami has won 3 in a row and is playing well of late. Dallas is as well and I think they win this game but believe Miami will give them a game.

Ravens -3 (2 units) - Like this one more and more the longer I look at it. The Ravens' ups and downs have been well documented but I think they will be ready for this one. 49ers making the long cross-country trip and it's time for San Fran to come down to earth a little bit.

 

[Four Corners]

Nice year Johnny...With you on the same three...Miami is playing hard and starting to pay off. They keep this one close.May throw a little on ML.

Happy THanksgiving to you and your family.:0008

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Thanks Four; same to you and yours!

And thank you Jason Hanson for bringing home the 1H for me.

Adding Lions/Packers 2H Over 27 for 1 unit. These offenses are too good to keep struggling this bad in the second half. Over 34 for the game? Sign me up.