Trying to Hit the Spot - My NFL Plays

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 40-31-1 +5.9 units
Parlays/Teasers: 5-7 +5.1 units
Total: +11.0 units

As a huge Bears fan the cover brings me little solace. Last week the Bears lose because their receivers can't catch and they can't knock down a hail mary, this week they lose because a running back doesn't know how to fall down. Just unbelievable.

Tonight, going with:

Dallas -3 (1 unit) - Giants are a desperate team, but just think that Dallas is better, especially at home. Cowboys bounce back after the disappointing loss at Arizona, and the Giants will still be reeling thinking about how they had the undefeated Packers on the ropes.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 40-32-1 +4.9 units
Parlays/Teasers: 5-7 +5.1 units
Total: +10.0 units

This is the kind of day that makes you want to give up gambling. Every single game I bet today featured a 1 possesion game with the team behind driving with less than 3 minutes remaining. Twice (Panthers and Titans) I needed the driving team to score and twice (Broncos and Giants) I needed the driving team not to score and all 4 turned out exactly the opposite of what I needed. Still got the cover in the Bears game but still a bad, bad, gut-wrenching day.

All I can do is regroup and try to come back strong next week.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Let's get back on track tonight:

Atlanta -13 (1 unit) - Really don't like point spreads this high but feel that this is really the only play tonight. Jags are unbelievably banged up right now; their D was solid for the first half of the season but they are average at best right now. And Atlanta is a much better team at home than they are on the road. They've finally got their playoff destiny back in their own hands and I think they know they need this game because they don't want to have to depend on beating the Saints in New Orleans next weekend. Think they will jump on the Jags early and I don't think Gabbert has the weapons to bring them back. Like the San Diego game a few weeks ago, if you can get a muliple-score lead on this team it neutralizes MJD and then they are in trouble, especially on the road.

 

[Four Corners]

Analysis was dead on! Nice win and start to the week. :0008

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 41-32-1 +5.8 units
Parlays/Teasers: 5-7 +5.1 units
Total: +10.9 units

Thanks Four!

Let's keep it going with this:

Tampa +7 (1 unit) - Bucs are competitive at home, the one week they were without Freeman notwithstanding. Cowboys are likely still a bit shell-shocked after blowing a big lead late last week. Bucs will hang around in this one.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding:

Seattle +3.5 (1 unit) - Kills me to go against my Bears here but think it's the right play. Similar to the logic in the Bucs game, the Bears got Tebowed last week and in the course of 10 minutes went from being a virtual lock to be the 5th seed to being out of the playoffs. Then you add in the Sam Hurd distraction and the fact that this is a revenge game for the Seahawks (their season ended here last year in the playoffs). Finally, you've still got an ineffective Caleb Hanie and no Matt Forte. You put all of those things together and you have a recipe for the Bears not being up for this one while the Seahawks will be. I'll be hoping for a 3-point Bears win, but think there's at least a 50-50 shot of the outright upset.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 41-33-1 +4.8 units
Parlays/Teasers: 5-7 +5.1 units
Total: +9.9 units

Adding:

Vikings +8 (1 unit) - Yes, the Vikings are bad and they are 1-5 at home. But those 5 losses have been by 4, 3, 6, 6, and 3 points. They simply don't get blown out at home, and I see no reason that changes today, especially with AP set to return.

Houston -6 (1 unit) - The Texans just keep winning. They wrapped up the division in impressive come-from-behind fashion last week and are still playing to lock-up a first round bye. Yates hasn't set the world on fire with his play but he's been serviceable and this Panthers D is a whole lot less imposing than the Bengals D he saw last week. Really it just comes down to 2 numbers: 30 and 13 - that's the number of points the Panthers are giving up on the road vs the number Houston is allowing at home this year.

 

[Skanoochies]

Nice stuff.

Good luck today Johnny.:toast:

 

[johnnyonthespot]

I hate it when the only bet I win is the only one I wouldn't have minded losing.

I'm taking it upon myself to end Tebow-mania myself by doing this:

Broncos +7.5 (1 unit) - This play actually has very little to do with Tebow. Lost in all the hype is the very very solid play of the Bronco defense, and I think they will keep this one close. I cringe as I write that sentence since that is the same reasoning that led me to back the Bucs and Vikings and neither competed.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 42-36-1 +2.7 units
Parlays/Teasers: 5-7 +5.1 units
Total: +7.8 units

See? Told you I'd take care of that Tebow situation.

Boy, not going good at all right now to say the least so I'm probably an excellent fade at this point.

All that being said I really like this tonight:

49ers -3 (2 units) - The cross-country trip is always tough, let alone against this tough 9ers defense. My feelings on Pitt's over-ratedness have been well documented in this thread so no need to repeat myself. The 49ers should get it done tonight.

GL all!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 43-36-1 +4.5 units
Parlays/Teasers: 5-7 +5.1 units
Total: +9.6 units

Hallelujah! Nice to end the week on a winning note. Lately I've been opening and closing the week strong, but Sunday noon to 7 is killing me.

At first glance not a whole lot I like on Christmas Eve. Waiting for the line on Bears-Packers but if it's less than 2 TDs I think I'll be on the Pack. Green Bay will be pissed after last week and this Bears team is now as demoralized as it could possibly be.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Week 16:

Houston -6 (1 unit) - Colts got the monkey off of their back on Sunday but will have a tough time against the Texans D. Hoping Yates can bounce back. Hard to believe the Texans put up 20 on the road against Cinncy but could only manage 13 at home against Carolina.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 43-37-1 +3.5 units
Parlays/Teasers: 5-7 +5.1 units
Total: +8.6 units

Fade away my friends!

Raiders +3 (1 unit) - Couple different angles here. First of all, it's a classic letdown situation for the Chiefs after the huge win last weekend. The last time the Chiefs got a big win was over the Chargers on Monday night and they then proceeded to get trounced at home 31-3 by Miami en route to losing 4 in a row. Secondly this is a revenge game for the Raiders - they were embarrassed 28-0 by these same Chiefs 2 months ago, but that was the week they lost Campbell and had just signed Palmer. Carson is getting better every week, although he missed two huge throws last week that would have iced the game. That's the big question here - how do the Raiders respond to the gut-wrenching loss last weekend. Since they're still in the thick of the AFC West race, I'm thinking they will respond well.

Broncos/Bills Over 43.5 (1 unit) - I really think this is actually a good spot for the Bills here - a team desperate for a win and the Broncos don't typically blow teams out, but obviously my read on the Broncos has been atrocious this season so I can't bring myself to take a side. But this total seems a bit low to me, namely because the Bills D hasn't been able to stop anyone of late. Since shutting out the Redskins in their last win, during their 6-game losing streak they have given up 27, 44, 35, 28, 23, 37, and 30 points. That's . . . not good. Prior to that, their D was only succeeding because they were getting turnovers, and that's something the Tebow-led Broncos don't do much of. Broncos should be able to move the ball and get into the 20s. On the other side of the ball, obviously the Bills O isn't the same without Fred Jackson, but they should still manage to make it into the 20s at home.

Jets -3 (1 unit) - OK, so it's not really a "home" game for the Jets, and this team has frustrated the hell out of me this year. And certainly neither team looked good last week. But the bottom line for me is that the Giants are one Tony Romo pass away from having lost 6 in a row, and before the debacle in Philly last week the Jets had been playing pretty well. Since Bradshaw got injured, the Giants run-game has been in shambles and he still doesn't look to be 100%. That puts most of the pressure on Eli, and pass D is a strength of the Jets. I expect that to be the difference, but I'll be gritting my teeth hoping that "good" Mark Sanchez shows up.

Leans for the late games - Dallas -3 and San Diego +3 but still thinking.

GLTA!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 45-38-1 +4.3 units
Parlays/Teasers: 5-7 +5.1 units
Total: +9.4 units

Eked out a winning day today. Would have loved the sweep but at this point I'm not gonna complain about any positive day the way it's been going lately.

Christmas Day, going with:

Green Bay -13 (2 units) - Love my Bears but they are finished. Josh McCown in his "prime" was nothing special, and he brings in a lifetime 12-19 record along with 35 TDs (the last of which was in 2007) against 41 INTs. For receivers they lost their top deep threat (Knox) last week in a horrific collision, and Devin Hester is questionable and has not looked right since the Charger game. If that weren't enough, Lance Briggs is also beat up and questionable, and they're down to the 3rd string RB (Bell). Put simply, there just aren't a lot of bullets left in the gun, and it's just hard to see how they are going to get anything going offensively. On the flipside, you've got a very pissed-off Packers team tryingin to bounce back from their first loss of the season and who still need one more victory to guarantee that they won't have to go on the road at all in the playoffs. This one has all the makings of a very ugly game that should be over early.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 46-38-1 +6.1 units
Parlays/Teasers: 5-7 +5.1 units
Total: +11.2 units

Finally I successfully avoid the bad beat! Packers take a 25-point lead and then come a couple of yards from letting the Bears cut it to 10.

Tonight going with:

Atlanta +7 (1 unit) - Against any other team, I'd probably play against the Falcons tonight. Thanks to Saturday and yesterday they've wrapped up a playoff berth. But they need this game to stay in the number 5 spot. And since San Fran needs only a victory over the lowly Rams next weekend to wrap up the number 2 seed, it basically boils down to Atlanta needing to win this one to avoid having to come right back here in 2 weeks. Thus, even though both teams are in the playoffs and only playing for seeding, I think Atlanta has more to play for because they are the only team that has the ability to affect their seed in their own hands. Not to mention the fact that they've no doubt had this game circled since the OT debachle last month. I think the Falcons have a good chance for the outright upset, but I really think they can at least keep this one within a TD.

GL all!

 

[ldabdou]

Agree my friend. All the same reasonings as to why I'm on 'em too. Gl

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding:

Falcons/Saints Under 53.5 (1 unit) - Really don't like taking unders period, and especially not in a game involving Drew Brees, but just think this one is inflated. It took OT for these two teams to get to 49 last month, and the Falcons D has played pretty well since some early-season struggles. On the road they held Carolina to 23 and the Lions to 16. If the Falcons can avoid falling behind big early, think they will do their best to get the run game going and milk the clock

Also adding:

Falcons +270 (.5 units) - Why not?

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:
YTD: 46-41-1 +3.6 units
Parlays/Teasers: 5-7 +5.1 units
Total: +8.7 units

Well . . . that was an excellent way to give back all of this week's winnings.

Not much to say; just an out and out misread on this game. Namely in the category of the Saints offense vs. the Falcons defense. With all due respect to San Francisco (who are good but too inexperienced I think) it really looks for all the world like a Saints/Packers rematch in the NFC title game and my god there will be 120 points scored in that game. Except of course it'll probably be 20 below and a blizzard at Lambeau and will end up being 6-3.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Alright, let's try to close this one out in style. Going with these 3 to start tomorrow:

Panthers/Saints Over 54.5 (1 unit) - I really believe that Brees will play at least a half or until the San Fran/St. Louis score gets out of hand. You have to at least make an effort for the #2 seed and I believe they will. Last 3 home games, Saints have put up 45, 31, and 49 points. Think they can score 30 again. Panthers last 4 road games they've scored 28, 38, 27, and 35 so I think they can get to 30 (or very close) too. If Brees doesn't start then this one is probably toast, but don't think it has any trouble if he plays.

Raiders -3 (1 unit) - Think that Rivers and the Chargers just want this nightmare of a season over with. Palmer is getting better every week.

Chiefs +3.5 (1 unit) - One word - revenge. Revenge for the 17-10 loss at Arrowhead last month and personal revenge for Orton. Broncos may win this game, but like the Bears game, they will not cover.

90% sure I'll be on the Giants tomorrow night, but not quite ready to pull the trigger yet. Romo has yet to show the capability of winning a must-win game; Eli has. That should make the difference.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding:

Bengals +3 (1 unit) - Pretty simple. Ravens with nothing to play for now that Pats won and I expect them to play like it.