THE SPORTS ADVISORS
MLB
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (0-1) at L.A. Dodgers (1-0)
Matt Cain (7-16, 3.65 ERA in 2007) looks to put a frustrating 2007 season behind him when he takes the mound for the Giants against the Dodgers? Derek Lowe (12-14, 3.88) in the middle game of a three-game series.
L.A., which closed out a disappointing 2007 season by losing 11 of its last 14 games, opened the Joe Torre era with Monday?s 5-0 whitewash of the Giants. San Francisco, meanwhile, has lost five of its last six going back to last year and is 3-11 in its last 14 road outings. The Dodgers have won 20 of the last 29 meetings in this rivalry. Also, the home team has taken four of the last five clashes after the visitor had been on an amazing 14-2 run.
Cain allowed three earned runs or fewer in 23 of his 32 starts last year, including holding opponents to one earned run or fewer 11 times. But he was a victim of poor run support, as the Giants went 9-23 with Cain on the mound, including 3-12 on the road. Cain went 3-8 with a 3.84 in his 15 starts on the highway last year, and 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA against the Dodgers. In his brief career, the hard-throwing righthander is 0-3 with a 5.96 ERA in five starts versus Los Angeles, including 0-1 with a 10.13 ERA at Dodger Stadium. Lowe really struggled in the second half of last season, going 4-6 with a 5.23 ERA in 13 post-All Star break starts, as opposed to 8-8 with a 3.12 ERA prior to the break. At home, the veteran righthander went just 6-6 in 15 games (14 starts) despite a respectable 3.51 ERA. Lowe hasn?t enjoyed much success against the Giants, going 3-5 with a 3.41 ERA in 10 starts, including 0-3 with a 6.17 ERA in games played in L.A. Despite those struggles, the Dodgers are 3-1 in Lowe?s last four outings against San Francisco, with Lowe recording a 1.93 ERA during this stretch. The under is 6-2-1 in Lowe?s nine starts against San Francisco, while the Giants stayed under the total in 11 of Cain?s last 13 outings in 2007, including four of his final five on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (1-1) at Oakland (1-1)
Boston righthander Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-0, 3.60) opposes Joe Blanton (0-0, 4.76) for the second time in a week, this time on U.S. soil as the Red Sox and A?s resume their four-game, cross-continent series at McAfee Coliseum in Oakland. These teams opened the 2008 season in Tokyo last week, splitting a pair of games at the Tokyo Dome. Boston rallied for a 6-5, 10-inning victory last Tuesday, with the A?s bouncing back for a 5-1 victory the next night. Despite those results, Oakland is just 3-11 in its last 14 games going back to last year (2-7 at home), while Boston has won eight of its last nine dating to the 2007 ALCS. These teams split their eight meetings last year, with the host going 6-2. In fact, the home club is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings, and the Red Sox are 2-6 in their last eight games in Oakland. In the opener in his native Japan last week, Matsuzaka struggled with his control, walking five and giving up two hits and two runs in five innings, though he did strike out six. Meanwhile, Blanton went 5 2/3 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits and one walk with three Ks Going back to last year?s playoffs, Boston is 6-1 in Matsuzaka?s last seven starts, but he has failed to go longer than 5 1/3 innings in any of his last five outings. Also, including last week?s game in Japan, Matsuzaka is now 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts against the A?s, walking seven and striking out 14. Finally, in his first big-league season in 2007, Dice-K went just 7-8 with a 4.02 ERA on the road.
Blanton went 7-5 both at home and on the road last year, but his ERA was markedly better at McAfee Coliseum (2.69) than it was on the highway (5.11). The burly righthander faced the Red Sox twice last year, giving up a run on four hits in 7 1/3 innings in a 1-0 home loss, while allowing a combined nine runs on 17 hits in 12 innings in a pair of no-decisions at Fenway Park, with Oakland losing both of those contests. For his career, Blanton is 2-1 with a 3.76 ERA versus Boston. The under is 20-7 in Blanton?s last 28 home starts and 6-2 in the last eight Boston-Oakland battles at McAfee Coliseum. But the over is 7-2-1 in Matsuzaka?s last 10 outings overall and 4-1 in his last five on the road. Also, the over is 8-3-2 in Boston?s last 13 against the A.L. West and 8-1-2 in Oakland?s last 11 versus the A.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NIT
(at New York)
UMass (24-10, 16-14-1 ATS) vs. Florida (24-11, 14-12 ATS)
Two-time defending national champion Florida, on a different tournament path this year but still having postseason success, rolled past Arizona State 70-57 last Tuesday as a 3?-point road underdog to make it to Madison Square Garden for this contest. The Gators have won and cashed in three straight NIT games ? all by double digits ? following a regular-season-ending 0-4 SU and ATS stretch that kept them out of the NCAA Tournament.
Massachusetts erased a 17-point deficit in the final eight minutes last Tuesday to stun Syracuse 81-77 as a seven-point road pup to reach the NIT semifinals. The Minutemen have been red-hot the past five weeks, going 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS.
The Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last seven starts as a favorite, but they are on positive ATS runs of 13-4 after a spread-cover, 8-3 after a SU win, 18-7-1 at neutral venues, 17-7-1 as a neutral-site chalk and 35-17-1 in 53 non-conference outings.
The Minutemen are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 Tuesday starts, 5-2 ATS in their last seven against winning teams and 5-2 ATS in their last seven as an underdog. However, they?re on pointspread slumps of 1-5 as a neutral-site underdog and 0-5 against the SEC.
The ?under? has cashed in all three of Florida?s NIT games and is also 6-1 in the Gators? last seven non-conference games and 6-1-1 in their last eight after a SU win, but the over is 5-1 in the team?s last six at neutral venues. For UMass, the under is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-0 following a victory and 5-2 as an underdog. However, the over is 4-0 in the Minutemen?s last four against the SEC and 18-8-1 in their last 27 non-conference clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
Mississippi (24-10, 14-15 ATS) vs. Ohio State (22-13, 16-14-1 ATS)
Ohio State, which lost to Florida in last year?s NCAA Tournament final, topped Dayton 74-63 Wednesday as a 7?-point home chalk to punch its ticket to New York. The Buckeyes have won and covered in all three of their NIT games ? all in Columbus and all double-digit victories ? following a 2-5 stretch (2-4-1 ATS) that killed their NCAA Tournament hopes.
Mississippi upset red-hot Virginia Tech 81-72 Wednesday as a seven-point road underdog for its third straight win and cover en route to the semifinals. The Rebels are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 starts, including a current 5-1 run in which the SU winner has cashed in each outing.
These two teams have almost no history against each other, outside of a 67-62 Ohio State win as a three-point home pup in December 1998.
The Buckeyes sport positive ATS trends of 6-0 outside the Big Ten, 4-0 as a favorite, 4-1 against winning teams and 6-2 as a neutral-site chalk, but they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight against the SEC and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight as a favorite of less than seven points.
The Rebels are on pointspread runs of 5-0 in non-conference play, 4-0 against winning teams, 6-1 on Tuesday and 4-1 after a SU win. The lone negative is their 3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 as a neutral-site pup.
For Ohio State, the under is 8-3 in its last 11 non-conference contest and 10-4 in its last 14 after a spread-cover, but the over is 4-0 with the Buckeyes a neutral-site favorite. For Mississippi, the over is on a 4-0 spree overall and is also 5-1 in its last six outside the SEC, 7-2 in its last nine at neutral venues and 19-7-1 in its last 27 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI
NBA
New Orleans (50-22, 45-26-1 ATS) at Orlando (47-27, 45-27-2 ATS)
The Hornets resume their six-game, nine-day road trip in Orlando when they take on the playoff-bound Magic.
New Orleans beat Toronto 118-111 as a 2?-point favorite on Sunday to improve to 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven games, with the only setback coming on Friday in Boston. Going back even further, the Hornets are on a 13-4 SU and ATS run, and the winner has covered the spread in each of New Orleans? last 21 games.
Orlando has stumbled a bit over the last two weeks, going 2-3 SU and ATS, though the Magic did crush Milwaukee 103-86 as a nine-point road chalk in its most recent game on Friday. Going back to mid-February, Stan Van Gundy?s squad is on a 15-6 SU run, but it has followed a 10-3 ATS run by going just 3-4-1 ATS in its last seven.
The Magic scored a mild upset over the Hornets in New Orleans on Nov. 19, winning 95-88 as a one-point road underdog. That extended a noticeable trend in which the underdog has cashed in eight consecutive meetings between these squads. What?s more, the road team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings, with the Hornets cashing in five straight trips to Orlando.
New Orleans has been sensational on the road going back to last year, posting a 28-13-1 ATS mark in the last 42 as a visitor. The Hornets are on further positive ATS streaks of 35-16 overall, 37-18-2 versus the Eastern Conference, 13-5 against the Southeast Division and 5-0 on Tuesdays.
Orlando is on a 9-3-1 ATS roll at Amway Arena, though it has lost two of its last three outright on its home floor. The Magic are also 4-1 ATS in their last five Tuesday outings.
The under is 7-1 in the last eight series meetings, with neither teams scoring more than 98 points in any of those eight contests. However, the over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 clashes at Amway Arena, 5-0 in New Orleans? last five overall, 6-0 in its last six on the highway, 8-0-1 in its last nine against the Eastern Conference and 6-1-1 in its last eight on Tuesdays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and UNDER
Golden State (45-28, 33-40 ATS) at San Antonio (51-23, 34-38-2 ATS)
The Warriors continue their playoff push in a most difficult place, as they visit the streaking Spurs at the AT&T Center.
Golden State, which tips off a four-game Southwest Division road trip tonight, pulled away late on Sunday to knock off the Mavericks 114-104, covering as a five-point home chalk. The Warriors have cashed in three straight games and five of their last seven, but they?ve alternated SU wins and losses in their last 11 contests and haven?t won back-to-back games since a three-game winning streak in early March.
San Antonio rolls into this contest on a seven-game winning steak (6-1 ATS). The most impressive victory during the run came on Sunday at home, as the Spurs hammered the Rockets 109-88 as a 6?-point chalk.
Golden State has taken the first two meetings in this rivalry, both at home, prevailing 96-84 as a 2?-point favorite on Dec. 11 and 130-121 in overtime as a 1?-point chalk on Jan. 7. The host has won seven of the last eight in this series (6-2 ATS), and the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five. Finally, Golden State is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight trips to San Antonio.
The Spurs are 11-1 in their last 12 home games (6-5-1 ATS), including four straight wins (3-1 ATS) in the last four. Additionally, San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the Western Conference and 4-0 ATS in its last four when playing on one day of rest.
Going back to New Year?s Eve, the Warriors have split their last 18 road games, but they?re 6-3 ATS in their last nine as a visitor. Also, Golden State is on ATS streaks of 4-1 against the West and 13-5 against the Southwest Division, but it is only 1-5 ATS in its last six on Tuesdays.
The over is 6-1 in the last seven series clashes overall and 4-1 in the last five battles at the AT&T Center. Also, the over is on streaks of 5-2 for San Antonio at home, 9-2 for the Warriors vs. the Southwest Division and 16-5-1 for the Warriors after a SU win. However, Golden State has stayed low in each of its last four road contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and OVER
Denver (45-29, 40-34 ATS) at Phoenix (50-24, 35-36-3 ATS)
One night after a wild up-and-down affair in Phoenix, the Suns and Nuggets lace ?em against each other once again, this time at the Pepsi Center in Denver in a key Western Conference clash
It was a tale of two halves in the desert on Monday night, as the Suns rallied from a 70-51 halftime hole and outscored Denver 81-47 over the final 24 minutes of action to secure a 132-117 victory and easily cover as a 5?-point home chalk. The Suns are on a 10-2 run, going 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12. Phoenix is playing on the road for the seventh time in its last nine games, going 4-2 in the previous six (2-3-1 ATS).
Denver had a five-game winning streak snapped with last night?s defeat, but despite the setback, George Karl?s club is 12-6 in its last 18 games and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 outings.
The home team is now on a 9-2 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, with the host taking the first three meetings this season. The last five head-to head clashes have been decided by margins of 15, 24, 17, 22 and 13 points, with the home club going 5-0 SU and ATS. In fact, the host has cashed in each of the last seven battles, and Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in its last five visits to the Pepsi Center.
Denver has been outstanding on its home floor this year, going 30-7 SU and 23-14 ATS. That includes an ongoing eight-game home winning streak (6-2 ATS). The Nuggets are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the Western Conference, but they?re just 1-6 ATS in their last seven against the Pacific Division and 1-4 ATS in their last five on Tuesdays.
The Suns are on ATS streaks of 7-0-1 against the West and 6-0 on Tuesdays, but they?re still only 5-9-1 ATS in their last 15 against the Northwest Division.
The under is 10-5 in Phoenix?s last 14 games against the Northwest Division. However, for Denver, the over is on streaks of 21-8 overall, 11-4 against the Western Conference, 9-4 when playing on back-to-back nights, 10-3 at home and 6-1 on Tuesdays. Also, each of the last five series meetings have topped the total, with the lowest-scoring of the bunch being a 233-point affair.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
