Tuesday Service Plays 5/13/08
- Thread starter MLBKING
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- Apr 7, 2008
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Ferrall
AL FREE B's FOR TUES:
TEXAS +105 on ML over Mariners--Gabbard knocks off Felix Hernandez in Arlington. The Rangers have looked great lately, going 8-3 in last 11.
ROYALS -125 on ML over Tigers--Kansas City's Greinke keeps having an incredible run. He's 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA. He's 7-3 career vs Detroit. Greinke has struck out 21 in his last 3 starts while allowing only 6 earned runs.
Toronto -105 on ML over Minnesota--Litsch is 4-1 with a 4.24 ERA. He's won 2 of his last 3. Slowey gets lit every time out for the Twins. His ERA is 6.48. TAKE THE OVER 9 RUNS
NL FREE B's FOR TUES:
DODGERS -115 on ML over Milwaukee--Brad Penny beats Villanueva in Brew Town. Penny is 5-3 overall and 2-1 in his last 3 starts. Villanueva is 1-4 with an 8.44 ERA in his last 3 outings. TAKE THE OVER 9 RUNS
Pirates +135 on ML over Cardinals--TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 RUNS and go with Dumatrait over Kyle Lohse. The Bucs young starter has looked sharp, going 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA. He's allowed only 4 earned runs. Lohse has been terrible lately, going 1-2 in last 3 and allowing 16 earned runs. The Cardinals have dropped 5 of 6 and arent hitting or scoring runs over the last week.
Houston +110 on ML over Giants--How can you not take the Astros right now ? They've won 10 of 11 and rallied from down 3-0 last night in SF to win again. Lance berkman is on FIRE , hitting .641 in May. He's scored a run in 15 straight games. The Giants are 5-12 vs the NL Central.
AL FREE B's FOR TUES:
TEXAS +105 on ML over Mariners--Gabbard knocks off Felix Hernandez in Arlington. The Rangers have looked great lately, going 8-3 in last 11.
ROYALS -125 on ML over Tigers--Kansas City's Greinke keeps having an incredible run. He's 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA. He's 7-3 career vs Detroit. Greinke has struck out 21 in his last 3 starts while allowing only 6 earned runs.
Toronto -105 on ML over Minnesota--Litsch is 4-1 with a 4.24 ERA. He's won 2 of his last 3. Slowey gets lit every time out for the Twins. His ERA is 6.48. TAKE THE OVER 9 RUNS
NL FREE B's FOR TUES:
DODGERS -115 on ML over Milwaukee--Brad Penny beats Villanueva in Brew Town. Penny is 5-3 overall and 2-1 in his last 3 starts. Villanueva is 1-4 with an 8.44 ERA in his last 3 outings. TAKE THE OVER 9 RUNS
Pirates +135 on ML over Cardinals--TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 RUNS and go with Dumatrait over Kyle Lohse. The Bucs young starter has looked sharp, going 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA. He's allowed only 4 earned runs. Lohse has been terrible lately, going 1-2 in last 3 and allowing 16 earned runs. The Cardinals have dropped 5 of 6 and arent hitting or scoring runs over the last week.
Houston +110 on ML over Giants--How can you not take the Astros right now ? They've won 10 of 11 and rallied from down 3-0 last night in SF to win again. Lance berkman is on FIRE , hitting .641 in May. He's scored a run in 15 straight games. The Giants are 5-12 vs the NL Central.
- Apr 7, 2008
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VEGAS EXPERTS
Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, May 13th, 10:15 PM ET
When you have a pitcher that loses as consistently as San Francisco's Matt Cain does (7-20 team start record in night games) going against a team as hot as the Houston Astros (winners of 7 of 8) are right now, what other way is there to go? Cain has seen the G-Men lose 19 of his last 24 starts vs. .500 or better competition and the Astros are a more than profitable 13-9 in the underdog role this season. Like we said - there's no other way to go.
Play on: Houston
Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, May 13th, 10:15 PM ET
When you have a pitcher that loses as consistently as San Francisco's Matt Cain does (7-20 team start record in night games) going against a team as hot as the Houston Astros (winners of 7 of 8) are right now, what other way is there to go? Cain has seen the G-Men lose 19 of his last 24 starts vs. .500 or better competition and the Astros are a more than profitable 13-9 in the underdog role this season. Like we said - there's no other way to go.
Play on: Houston
STAN SHARP
NBA TOTAL BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Price: $20.00
Stan passed in the NBA on Monday but Tuesday finds a totally different story as Stan is making a Big Wager today on an NBA Game as Stan loves one of today's totals. Stan scored an easy Playoff Victory on Sunday as UTAH won in Overtime which followed his Triple Dime Play Winner on Saturday with the Over in the Cleveland Game. This is the only Game Stan is betting today and he his betting it big in fact it's his NBA Total Big Bet of the Week. Remember since Nov 2nd Stan has gone 107-79 with all his plays. Get STAN'S NBA TOTAL BIG BET OF THE WEEK now for just $20.
Spurs/Hornets under 187
NBA TOTAL BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Price: $20.00
Stan passed in the NBA on Monday but Tuesday finds a totally different story as Stan is making a Big Wager today on an NBA Game as Stan loves one of today's totals. Stan scored an easy Playoff Victory on Sunday as UTAH won in Overtime which followed his Triple Dime Play Winner on Saturday with the Over in the Cleveland Game. This is the only Game Stan is betting today and he his betting it big in fact it's his NBA Total Big Bet of the Week. Remember since Nov 2nd Stan has gone 107-79 with all his plays. Get STAN'S NBA TOTAL BIG BET OF THE WEEK now for just $20.
Spurs/Hornets under 187
Gator Report
NBA 70% Super Situations (NBA Record 20-11 ATS +790 Units)
NBA (Playoffs 1-2 -0.20) Tuesday: Play On NBA favorites playing with double revenge for 2 straight losses vs. opponent, in a game involving two teams with a winning percentage of 60% to 75% on the season.
61-25 ATS the last 5 seasons (70.9%)
PLAY: New Orleans -3
MLB 70% Super Situations (MLB Record 9-3 +570 units)
Our MLB 70% Super Situations could be either sides and/or totals from the MLB Card for that particular day.
MLB Tuesday: Play Under MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 with a team that averages 0.75 or less HR's per game on the season, after scoring 12 runs or more.
44-13 Under since 1997 (77.2%)
PLAY: Oakland / Cleveland UNDER 9 (-120)
Gator's NBA "ANGLE" Game of the Day
NBA Tuesday: NEW ORLEANS is 10-0 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season
NBA 70% Super Situations (NBA Record 20-11 ATS +790 Units)
NBA (Playoffs 1-2 -0.20) Tuesday: Play On NBA favorites playing with double revenge for 2 straight losses vs. opponent, in a game involving two teams with a winning percentage of 60% to 75% on the season.
61-25 ATS the last 5 seasons (70.9%)
PLAY: New Orleans -3
MLB 70% Super Situations (MLB Record 9-3 +570 units)
Our MLB 70% Super Situations could be either sides and/or totals from the MLB Card for that particular day.
MLB Tuesday: Play Under MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 with a team that averages 0.75 or less HR's per game on the season, after scoring 12 runs or more.
44-13 Under since 1997 (77.2%)
PLAY: Oakland / Cleveland UNDER 9 (-120)
Gator's NBA "ANGLE" Game of the Day
NBA Tuesday: NEW ORLEANS is 10-0 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season
Dave Malinsky
Boston (RL) @ Orioles (RL) May 13, 2008 7:05PM
4* BALTIMORE Run Line over BOSTON
In cashing a 4* Run Line ticket against the Red Sox with Minnesota last night, we were able to deal with the usual market bias of a ?public? road favorite having the Run Line adjusted a bit too far, and also of just how over-rated Boston is in the role. Now it is time for more of the same, as we get the ability to take Jeremy Guthrie and a fully rested Baltimore bullpen +1.5 in basically a pick?em range.
Here are the numbers for the Red Sox away from Fenway the past two seasons - 43-70 as -1.5 on the road, including 8-14 this season. But because they have those World Series rings, and Josh Beckett is taking the mound, they carry a reputation far beyond that, which creates our value. But it has not been merely a case of not getting margins on the road this season; they have lost 12 of those 22 games outright, and are now caught in the rare scheduling lay-out of nine straight road games without a day off.
Meanwhile the Orioles will perceive this as a major opportunity at only 3.5 games out of first place in the AL East, buoyed with the confidence of a 10-6 home opening to the season. They had Monday off after a road trip of their own, and now send the dependable Guthrie to the mound. Since he entered the starting rotation full-time on May 8 of LY he has become a classic ?battler?, keying a run of 23-10 as +1.5 over 33 starts, a span in which he has allowed three runs or less 26 times. He worked to a solid 2.41 over 18.2 innings against the Red Sox LY, and for the second straight season is allowing fewer hits than innings pitched, showing the kind of stuff that he can bring. Matched with a defense that is currently #1 in the Major?s on our best set of ratings he can continue his form, and with the entire bullpen rested and ready, this one does not break open.
Boston (RL) @ Orioles (RL) May 13, 2008 7:05PM
4* BALTIMORE Run Line over BOSTON
In cashing a 4* Run Line ticket against the Red Sox with Minnesota last night, we were able to deal with the usual market bias of a ?public? road favorite having the Run Line adjusted a bit too far, and also of just how over-rated Boston is in the role. Now it is time for more of the same, as we get the ability to take Jeremy Guthrie and a fully rested Baltimore bullpen +1.5 in basically a pick?em range.
Here are the numbers for the Red Sox away from Fenway the past two seasons - 43-70 as -1.5 on the road, including 8-14 this season. But because they have those World Series rings, and Josh Beckett is taking the mound, they carry a reputation far beyond that, which creates our value. But it has not been merely a case of not getting margins on the road this season; they have lost 12 of those 22 games outright, and are now caught in the rare scheduling lay-out of nine straight road games without a day off.
Meanwhile the Orioles will perceive this as a major opportunity at only 3.5 games out of first place in the AL East, buoyed with the confidence of a 10-6 home opening to the season. They had Monday off after a road trip of their own, and now send the dependable Guthrie to the mound. Since he entered the starting rotation full-time on May 8 of LY he has become a classic ?battler?, keying a run of 23-10 as +1.5 over 33 starts, a span in which he has allowed three runs or less 26 times. He worked to a solid 2.41 over 18.2 innings against the Red Sox LY, and for the second straight season is allowing fewer hits than innings pitched, showing the kind of stuff that he can bring. Matched with a defense that is currently #1 in the Major?s on our best set of ratings he can continue his form, and with the entire bullpen rested and ready, this one does not break open.
WUNDERDOG
NBA
Game: San Antonio at New Orleans (9:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: New Orleans -3 (-110)
It is hard to ignore the fact that the top two teams in each conference has been covering at an eye-opening rate of 85% (17-3) at home in the playoffs. The Spurs have not had much success when they take to the road against top teams. They have been just 3-10 ATS in this situation since Valentine?s Day. They have put up 102.7 points per game at home in their last 11 against playoff teams, but just 88 ppg on the road. While just two of these opponents reached the century mark against them at home in the last 13, on the road seven of them have reached the century mark in the last 13. New Orleans is 4-1 ATS at home in the playoffs. New Orleans has been wiping-out all top teams at home as they have now won 13 of their last 14 at home over playoff teams and 11 of those have been by double-digits! San Antonio has now lost three straight on this court and they all have been ugly as the average margin has been over 20 points a game. New Orleans takes game 5.
Sports Monitor
San Diego Padres (14-25) at Chicago Cubs (23-15)
Cubs -160
TRENDS:
The Cubs are 15-6 at home. San Diego is 6-15 on the road.
San Diego has lost 19 of their last 25 games.
GAME SUMMARY:
Chicago took care of the most difficult part of that stretch by sweeping a three-game series from the West-leading Diamondbacks over the weekend. With seven straight games against major league-worst San Diego (14-25) and Pittsburgh a team they are 6-0 versus this season - the Cubs have a golden opportunity to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division.
SPORTS MONITOR
PREDICTION:
Cubs 6 Padres 4
San Diego Padres (14-25) at Chicago Cubs (23-15)
Cubs -160
TRENDS:
The Cubs are 15-6 at home. San Diego is 6-15 on the road.
San Diego has lost 19 of their last 25 games.
GAME SUMMARY:
Chicago took care of the most difficult part of that stretch by sweeping a three-game series from the West-leading Diamondbacks over the weekend. With seven straight games against major league-worst San Diego (14-25) and Pittsburgh a team they are 6-0 versus this season - the Cubs have a golden opportunity to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division.
SPORTS MONITOR
PREDICTION:
Cubs 6 Padres 4
LT Profits
Philadelphia Phillies (-135)
Tue May 13 '08 7:05p
The Atlanta Braves are just 5-14 on the road this season, so they should have their hands full when the visit the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.
Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick may have a high 4.93 ERA, but that figure is skewed by a couple of short outings earlier in the year. Kendrick has now found his form however, with three Quality Starts in his last four appearances, and he allowed two and three runs respectively in his two career starts vs. the Braves, which both came last season. Also, should Kendrick need some relief, Philadelphia now leads the Major Leagues with a bullpen ERA of 2.75.
Jo-Jo has been erratic for the Braves, and his 2.25 ERA is extremely deceptive considering his horrible 1.75 WHIP. We have always felt that WHIP was the much truer indicator of a pitcher?s ability, so it is more likely that Reyes? ERA will rise to line up with his poor WHIP than the other way around. Also, their may be some fatigue involved for the Braves, who played a doubleheader yesterday.
Look for Kendrick and the fine Phillies bullpen to keep the Atlanta bats in check here.
Phillies -135
Edinson Volquez of the Cincinnati Reds certainly looks like the real deal, but he also looks overpriced here vs. Mark Hendrickson and the surprising Florida Marlins.
Yes, Volquez is 5-1 with a 1.06 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP overall, and he has yet to allow more than two runs in a game. However, while he did toss seven scoreless innings at the Chicago Cubs in his last start with 10 strikeouts, he did also walk six batters, resulting in a season high 118 pitches thrown. Thus, it would not be inconceivable for Volquez to be slightly off of his game tonight, and given the struggles of the Cincinnati offense this season (last night notwithstanding), and less than perfect outing may not result in a Reds win.
This is because Florida starter Mark Hendrickson is also off to a fine start at 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA, and his fine WHIP of 1.25 is on par with Volquez. Hendrickson has now gone seven consecutive starts without allowing more than three earned runs, and even if he is in need of support, the Marlins are currently tied for third in the Major Leagues with a bullpen ERA of 3.18, making them a Bullpen System play in this spot.
Florida has their seven-game winning streak snapped here last night by a narrow 8-7 score, bu we look for them to start a new streak at a great price tonight.
Marlins +150
Philadelphia Phillies (-135)
Tue May 13 '08 7:05p
The Atlanta Braves are just 5-14 on the road this season, so they should have their hands full when the visit the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.
Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick may have a high 4.93 ERA, but that figure is skewed by a couple of short outings earlier in the year. Kendrick has now found his form however, with three Quality Starts in his last four appearances, and he allowed two and three runs respectively in his two career starts vs. the Braves, which both came last season. Also, should Kendrick need some relief, Philadelphia now leads the Major Leagues with a bullpen ERA of 2.75.
Jo-Jo has been erratic for the Braves, and his 2.25 ERA is extremely deceptive considering his horrible 1.75 WHIP. We have always felt that WHIP was the much truer indicator of a pitcher?s ability, so it is more likely that Reyes? ERA will rise to line up with his poor WHIP than the other way around. Also, their may be some fatigue involved for the Braves, who played a doubleheader yesterday.
Look for Kendrick and the fine Phillies bullpen to keep the Atlanta bats in check here.
Phillies -135
Edinson Volquez of the Cincinnati Reds certainly looks like the real deal, but he also looks overpriced here vs. Mark Hendrickson and the surprising Florida Marlins.
Yes, Volquez is 5-1 with a 1.06 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP overall, and he has yet to allow more than two runs in a game. However, while he did toss seven scoreless innings at the Chicago Cubs in his last start with 10 strikeouts, he did also walk six batters, resulting in a season high 118 pitches thrown. Thus, it would not be inconceivable for Volquez to be slightly off of his game tonight, and given the struggles of the Cincinnati offense this season (last night notwithstanding), and less than perfect outing may not result in a Reds win.
This is because Florida starter Mark Hendrickson is also off to a fine start at 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA, and his fine WHIP of 1.25 is on par with Volquez. Hendrickson has now gone seven consecutive starts without allowing more than three earned runs, and even if he is in need of support, the Marlins are currently tied for third in the Major Leagues with a bullpen ERA of 3.18, making them a Bullpen System play in this spot.
Florida has their seven-game winning streak snapped here last night by a narrow 8-7 score, bu we look for them to start a new streak at a great price tonight.
Marlins +150
Bob Akmens comp
San Francisco Giants (-125)
Tue May 13 '08 10:15p
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 162 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.
The computer models I?ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.
Several interesting factors in today?s play are as follows (ATS = against-the-spread) ?
Again, we have a line that does not accurately reflect reality.
While Houston has the better overall record, the ?Stros and the Giants have identical .500 records where they are ? away and home.
And I guarantee you this ? as this season moves on, Houston?s road record will be appreciably lower than .500 and the Giants home-record should be decently above .500. Why? Because that?s the norm. Neither of these teams is exceptional.
Quite the contrary ? each is very mediocre ? which, by its definition, means middle-of-the-road. And that means each should be +/- some percentage points around .500 ? overall, that is.
Face it ? almost all people are mediocre. That?s not a knock ? that just a fact. It implies that long term, we?re all going to be around .500 in win-lose situations. Economists have a term for this: regression to the mean. That mean being .500.
But mediocre teams like this generally may play .100-.150 points (or more) better at home than on the road. So, I look for both the Astros and the Giants to start regressing to their own home-away means which historically would occur with these sorts of teams.
So, why would I say the line here doesn?t reflect reality?
The starting pitchers. Brandon Backe is a terrible road pitcher. The Astros are 2-8 in his last 10 starts away from home. And Matt Cain? He?s 4-2 his last 6 decisions at home ? with an other-worldly (these days, at least) ERA of 2.24 in those affairs.
All the more reason to pick SF here.
Go with the GIANTS as a short -125 favorite in this 10:15 PM ET matchup
San Francisco Giants (-125)
Tue May 13 '08 10:15p
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 162 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.
The computer models I?ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.
Several interesting factors in today?s play are as follows (ATS = against-the-spread) ?
Again, we have a line that does not accurately reflect reality.
While Houston has the better overall record, the ?Stros and the Giants have identical .500 records where they are ? away and home.
And I guarantee you this ? as this season moves on, Houston?s road record will be appreciably lower than .500 and the Giants home-record should be decently above .500. Why? Because that?s the norm. Neither of these teams is exceptional.
Quite the contrary ? each is very mediocre ? which, by its definition, means middle-of-the-road. And that means each should be +/- some percentage points around .500 ? overall, that is.
Face it ? almost all people are mediocre. That?s not a knock ? that just a fact. It implies that long term, we?re all going to be around .500 in win-lose situations. Economists have a term for this: regression to the mean. That mean being .500.
But mediocre teams like this generally may play .100-.150 points (or more) better at home than on the road. So, I look for both the Astros and the Giants to start regressing to their own home-away means which historically would occur with these sorts of teams.
So, why would I say the line here doesn?t reflect reality?
The starting pitchers. Brandon Backe is a terrible road pitcher. The Astros are 2-8 in his last 10 starts away from home. And Matt Cain? He?s 4-2 his last 6 decisions at home ? with an other-worldly (these days, at least) ERA of 2.24 in those affairs.
All the more reason to pick SF here.
Go with the GIANTS as a short -125 favorite in this 10:15 PM ET matchup
Tips and Trends
Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons [TNT | 7 PM ET]
Magic: Orlando PG Jameer Nelson has guaranteed a win for his team in Game 5 at Detroit, pulling something out of Pistons forward Rasheed Wallace's bag of tricks. "We're going to make some adjustments and we're going to win this game," Nelson said after Orlando's 90-89 loss in Game 4 on Saturday. "I'm not being arrogant or cocky or anything like that. I think (Saturday) we let it slip out of our hands. Game 2 we let it slip out of our hands. We're going to win this game in Detroit." If the Magic don't win, one thing is certain - they will disappear.
The UNDER is 9-2 in Orlando's last 11 road games.
The UNDER is 7-2 in Orlando's last 9 games vs. Central Division.
Key Injuries - NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: Detroit 96 Orlando 90
Pistons (-6, O/U 185.5): Detroit head coach Flip Saunders shed some light on the severity of PG Chauncey Billups' injury but remains optimistic that he will be ready to go on Tuesday. ?It wouldn?t matter if it were Game 7 of the NBA Finals or Game 4 of Orlando - his leg is just not ready,? Saunders said. ?He can?t really do anything to really be effective.? Regardless, veteran Lindsey Hunter did a great job filling in for Billups while rookie Rodney Stuckey was saddled with 5 fouls. Hunter had not played in the previous 3 games of the series but scored 8 points in 26 minutes, including a pair of 3-pointers.
Pistons are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.
The UNDER is 7-2 in Detroit's last 9 games vs. Southeast Division.
The OVER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings at Detroit.
Key Injuries - PG Chauncey Billups (17 ppg; hamstring) is questionable.
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets [TNT | 9:30 PM ET]
Spurs: San Antonio's Tim Duncan was reborn back on his home court, and it will interesting to see what happens when the series shifts back to New Orleans for Game 5. Duncan totaled 38 points and 28 rebounds with 6 assists and 8 blocks in the 2 home games after collecting 23 points, 11 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 blocks in the first 2 games combined on the road. Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich may also leave Manu Ginobili in the starting lineup, where he averaged 23 points and 7 assists in the last 2 games.
Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.
The OVER is 8-2-1 in San Antonio's last 11 games overall.
Key Injuries - NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: New Orleans 95 San Antonio 91
Hornets (-4, O/U 186.5): Home teams in the Western Conference have yet to lose in the second round, and New Orleans has won 17 of 18 at home dating back to the regular season. So the Hornets are certainly not in panic mode even though they were not able to battle back in Game 4 like they did in the first round against Dallas. ?We knew they would respond and come back hard,? said New Orleans F Peja Stojakovic, who has totaled only 14 points combined in the last 2 games. ?They?re the defending champions and we didn?t play close to the way we played at home. We have to regroup and hopefully we?ll play better basketball at home." Stojakovic must play better at home, where he averaged 23.5 points in the first 2 games.
Hornets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday games.
Hornets are 5-1 SU & ATS in their last 6 home games.
Key Injuries - NONE
Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons [TNT | 7 PM ET]
Magic: Orlando PG Jameer Nelson has guaranteed a win for his team in Game 5 at Detroit, pulling something out of Pistons forward Rasheed Wallace's bag of tricks. "We're going to make some adjustments and we're going to win this game," Nelson said after Orlando's 90-89 loss in Game 4 on Saturday. "I'm not being arrogant or cocky or anything like that. I think (Saturday) we let it slip out of our hands. Game 2 we let it slip out of our hands. We're going to win this game in Detroit." If the Magic don't win, one thing is certain - they will disappear.
The UNDER is 9-2 in Orlando's last 11 road games.
The UNDER is 7-2 in Orlando's last 9 games vs. Central Division.
Key Injuries - NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: Detroit 96 Orlando 90
Pistons (-6, O/U 185.5): Detroit head coach Flip Saunders shed some light on the severity of PG Chauncey Billups' injury but remains optimistic that he will be ready to go on Tuesday. ?It wouldn?t matter if it were Game 7 of the NBA Finals or Game 4 of Orlando - his leg is just not ready,? Saunders said. ?He can?t really do anything to really be effective.? Regardless, veteran Lindsey Hunter did a great job filling in for Billups while rookie Rodney Stuckey was saddled with 5 fouls. Hunter had not played in the previous 3 games of the series but scored 8 points in 26 minutes, including a pair of 3-pointers.
Pistons are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.
The UNDER is 7-2 in Detroit's last 9 games vs. Southeast Division.
The OVER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings at Detroit.
Key Injuries - PG Chauncey Billups (17 ppg; hamstring) is questionable.
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets [TNT | 9:30 PM ET]
Spurs: San Antonio's Tim Duncan was reborn back on his home court, and it will interesting to see what happens when the series shifts back to New Orleans for Game 5. Duncan totaled 38 points and 28 rebounds with 6 assists and 8 blocks in the 2 home games after collecting 23 points, 11 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 blocks in the first 2 games combined on the road. Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich may also leave Manu Ginobili in the starting lineup, where he averaged 23 points and 7 assists in the last 2 games.
Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.
The OVER is 8-2-1 in San Antonio's last 11 games overall.
Key Injuries - NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: New Orleans 95 San Antonio 91
Hornets (-4, O/U 186.5): Home teams in the Western Conference have yet to lose in the second round, and New Orleans has won 17 of 18 at home dating back to the regular season. So the Hornets are certainly not in panic mode even though they were not able to battle back in Game 4 like they did in the first round against Dallas. ?We knew they would respond and come back hard,? said New Orleans F Peja Stojakovic, who has totaled only 14 points combined in the last 2 games. ?They?re the defending champions and we didn?t play close to the way we played at home. We have to regroup and hopefully we?ll play better basketball at home." Stojakovic must play better at home, where he averaged 23.5 points in the first 2 games.
Hornets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday games.
Hornets are 5-1 SU & ATS in their last 6 home games.
Key Injuries - NONE
Pick 'n' Roll
Best NBA Bets
Orlando at Detroit (-6 1/2, 185 1/2)
Jameer Nelson is either courageous or stupid - we'll find out which it is on Tuesday. Following a tough 90-89 loss that put Orlando down 3-1 in the series, Nelson guaranteed a Game 5 win.
"You know what, we're going to make some adjustments and we're going to win this game," Nelson told reporters after the Game 4 loss. "I'm not trying to be arrogant or cocky or anything like that. We're going to win this game in Detroit."
As if that weren't enough, the point guard also promised he would make his free throws after going 2-for-6 from the line in the Game 4 loss. As far as the Magic were concerned, it was the second game of the series that could have gone either way.
It's easy to read too much into post-game guarantees like this, but the Pistons aren't the kind of team you want to provoke with bulletin board material - especially on their own floor.
Pick: Detroit
San Antonio at New Orleans (-3, 186 1/2)
Until one of these teams breaks serve in enemy territory, it probably makes sense to keep riding the home team. But a healthy Tim Duncan makes a big difference.
Duncan played through a nasty flu bug during the first two games of the series and struggled against New Orleans' double teams. Now he looks fit to take charge when he needs to after dropping 22 points, grabbing 15 boards and swatting four shots in Game 4's win.
Possibly more importantly ? the Spurs defense finally showed up in San Antonio. Chris Paul scored 23 points, but Jannero Pargo was second on the score sheet with only 11 points. That could spell trouble for New Orleans.
Pick: San Antonio
Best NBA Bets
Orlando at Detroit (-6 1/2, 185 1/2)
Jameer Nelson is either courageous or stupid - we'll find out which it is on Tuesday. Following a tough 90-89 loss that put Orlando down 3-1 in the series, Nelson guaranteed a Game 5 win.
"You know what, we're going to make some adjustments and we're going to win this game," Nelson told reporters after the Game 4 loss. "I'm not trying to be arrogant or cocky or anything like that. We're going to win this game in Detroit."
As if that weren't enough, the point guard also promised he would make his free throws after going 2-for-6 from the line in the Game 4 loss. As far as the Magic were concerned, it was the second game of the series that could have gone either way.
It's easy to read too much into post-game guarantees like this, but the Pistons aren't the kind of team you want to provoke with bulletin board material - especially on their own floor.
Pick: Detroit
San Antonio at New Orleans (-3, 186 1/2)
Until one of these teams breaks serve in enemy territory, it probably makes sense to keep riding the home team. But a healthy Tim Duncan makes a big difference.
Duncan played through a nasty flu bug during the first two games of the series and struggled against New Orleans' double teams. Now he looks fit to take charge when he needs to after dropping 22 points, grabbing 15 boards and swatting four shots in Game 4's win.
Possibly more importantly ? the Spurs defense finally showed up in San Antonio. Chris Paul scored 23 points, but Jannero Pargo was second on the score sheet with only 11 points. That could spell trouble for New Orleans.
Pick: San Antonio
Ice Picks
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (+110, 5 1/2)
The Philadelphia Flyers obviously haven't learned much from the New York Rangers' demise. New York couldn't keep itself out of the penalty box against the Penguins and ultimately couldn't do anything to slow down Pittsburgh's deadly powerplay. Now the Flyers are falling into the same trap.
Philadelphia has lots of speed up front, but its defense - specifically Derian Hatcher - can't keep up when the Penguins start wheeling around and cycling the puck deep. That leads to lazy obstruction penalties. Philly took 10 penalties in Game 2, a pair of which resulted in Pittsburgh goals, after staying fairly disciplined in the first game of the series.
The Flyers are in huge trouble if they start a parade to the penalty box again once they get back in front of their home crowd, though something tells us Philly coach John Stevens has already told them all about that. They can hang in there at even strength and it's now or never for the Flyers.
Pick: Philadelphia
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (+110, 5 1/2)
The Philadelphia Flyers obviously haven't learned much from the New York Rangers' demise. New York couldn't keep itself out of the penalty box against the Penguins and ultimately couldn't do anything to slow down Pittsburgh's deadly powerplay. Now the Flyers are falling into the same trap.
Philadelphia has lots of speed up front, but its defense - specifically Derian Hatcher - can't keep up when the Penguins start wheeling around and cycling the puck deep. That leads to lazy obstruction penalties. Philly took 10 penalties in Game 2, a pair of which resulted in Pittsburgh goals, after staying fairly disciplined in the first game of the series.
The Flyers are in huge trouble if they start a parade to the penalty box again once they get back in front of their home crowd, though something tells us Philly coach John Stevens has already told them all about that. They can hang in there at even strength and it's now or never for the Flyers.
Pick: Philadelphia
Dunkel Index
NBA
Orlando at Detroit
The Pistons look to close out the series tonight and come into the contest with an 8-1 ATS record in home games when the total is listed between 185 and 189 1/2. Detroit is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Pistons favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-6)
Game 517-518: Orlando at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 120.395; Detroit 129.283
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 9; 181
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 6; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-6); Under
Game 519-520: San Antonio at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 123.371; New Orleans 129.183
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 6; 189
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3 1/2); Over
NHL
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
The Flyers are in an 0-2 hole and face a Pittsburgh team that is now 7-1 when leading in a postseason series. The Penguins are the underdog pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has Pittsburgh favored straight up by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-105).
Game 51-52: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.460; Philadelphia 12.305
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-105); Over
NBA
Orlando at Detroit
The Pistons look to close out the series tonight and come into the contest with an 8-1 ATS record in home games when the total is listed between 185 and 189 1/2. Detroit is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Pistons favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-6)
Game 517-518: Orlando at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 120.395; Detroit 129.283
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 9; 181
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 6; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-6); Under
Game 519-520: San Antonio at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 123.371; New Orleans 129.183
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 6; 189
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3 1/2); Over
NHL
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
The Flyers are in an 0-2 hole and face a Pittsburgh team that is now 7-1 when leading in a postseason series. The Penguins are the underdog pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has Pittsburgh favored straight up by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-105).
Game 51-52: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.460; Philadelphia 12.305
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-105); Over
Dunkel Index
MLB
Detroit at Kansas City
The Tigers, who are just 2-9 on the road when the total is listed between 9 and 9 1/2, face KC ace Zack Greinke, who is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his three home starts. The Royals are the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has Kansas City favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130).
Game 951-952: Atlanta at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Reyes) 15.577; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 16.378
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Under
Game 953-954: Washington at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 15.556; NY Mets (Maine) 16.660
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-170); Over
Game 955-956: Florida at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Hendrickson) 16.342; Cincinnati (Volquez) 15.924
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+135); Over
Game 957-958: San Diego at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Estes) 15.743; Cubs (Marquis) 15.639
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+145); N/A
Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Penny) 15.808; Milwaukee (Villanueva) 13.924
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-115); Over
Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Dumatrait) 15.416; St. Louis (Lohse) 15.669
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-150); Over
Game 963-964: Colorado at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 14.603; Arizona (Johnson) 14.906
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-130); Under
Game 965-966: Houston at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Backe) 14.994; San Francisco (Cain) 15.825
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-120); Over
Game 967-968: Boston at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 17.668; Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.335
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160); Over
Game 969-970: Oakland at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Duchscherer) 16.249; Cleveland (Byrd) 15.749
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+110); Over
Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Wang) 15.463; Tampa Bay (Jackson) 16.680
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+130); Under
Game 973-974: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.819; Texas (Gabbard) 15.747
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-120); Over
Game 975-976: Detroit at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Robertson) 14.858; Kansas City (Greinke) 16.601
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130); Over
Game 977-978: Toronto at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Litsch) 14.511; Minnesota (Slowey) 16.774
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-115); Under
Game 979-980: Chicago White Sox at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.172; LA Angels (Weaver) 14.923
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+120); Over
MLB
Detroit at Kansas City
The Tigers, who are just 2-9 on the road when the total is listed between 9 and 9 1/2, face KC ace Zack Greinke, who is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his three home starts. The Royals are the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has Kansas City favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130).
Game 951-952: Atlanta at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Reyes) 15.577; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 16.378
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Under
Game 953-954: Washington at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 15.556; NY Mets (Maine) 16.660
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-170); Over
Game 955-956: Florida at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Hendrickson) 16.342; Cincinnati (Volquez) 15.924
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+135); Over
Game 957-958: San Diego at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Estes) 15.743; Cubs (Marquis) 15.639
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+145); N/A
Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Penny) 15.808; Milwaukee (Villanueva) 13.924
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-115); Over
Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Dumatrait) 15.416; St. Louis (Lohse) 15.669
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-150); Over
Game 963-964: Colorado at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 14.603; Arizona (Johnson) 14.906
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-130); Under
Game 965-966: Houston at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Backe) 14.994; San Francisco (Cain) 15.825
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-120); Over
Game 967-968: Boston at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 17.668; Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.335
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160); Over
Game 969-970: Oakland at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Duchscherer) 16.249; Cleveland (Byrd) 15.749
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+110); Over
Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Wang) 15.463; Tampa Bay (Jackson) 16.680
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+130); Under
Game 973-974: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.819; Texas (Gabbard) 15.747
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-120); Over
Game 975-976: Detroit at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Robertson) 14.858; Kansas City (Greinke) 16.601
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130); Over
Game 977-978: Toronto at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Litsch) 14.511; Minnesota (Slowey) 16.774
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-115); Under
Game 979-980: Chicago White Sox at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.172; LA Angels (Weaver) 14.923
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+120); Over
Sports Reporter
Sports Reporter
Anyone ever come across the Sports Reporter (out of Lynbrook, NY) phone picks? I used to get them years ago and thought they were fairly solid. They also used to have a good weekly called the blue sheet but that wasn't as strong as the phone plays...obviously.
Sports Reporter
Anyone ever come across the Sports Reporter (out of Lynbrook, NY) phone picks? I used to get them years ago and thought they were fairly solid. They also used to have a good weekly called the blue sheet but that wasn't as strong as the phone plays...obviously.
