INDIAN COWBOY
Hornets -3 (POD)
I released this selection early because I figured the line would go up to -3.5 or -4 by game time. Keep in mind that the Hornets won the first 2 ballgames at home in this playoff series and as noted, here are the Hornets records whenever they have played the Spurs at home this year and this playoff season:
05/05/08 NO 102 - SA 84 (18 Point New Orleans Win)
05/03/08 NO 101 - SA 82 (19 Point New Orleans Win)
03/12/08 NO 100 - SA 75 (25 Point New Orleans Win)
11/09/07 NO 85 - SA 97 (12 Point San Antonio Win)
Do you see a pattern? The Hornets are 4-0 at home vs. the Spurs and they have won each of those games by double-digits. Now, the Spurs did their part and won at home by double-digits in both ballgames as well. I think it will be awfully tough for the Spurs to pull this game out on the road today as if the Spurs win this series, it will be in game 7 in New Orleans in my opinion. I expect the Hornets to make several changes and Byron Scott to ride his players awfully hard as Stan Van Gundy would have done to the Magic and I expect New Orleans to respond at home as there will truly be a great atmosphere in New Orleans today. The Spurs are 3-13 ATS as small underdogs as they are not performing well as small dogs this year and the Hornets are 8-0 ATS vs. a winning team at home as they have yet to fail to cover in the playoffs at home - after all, they beat the Mavs and covered all 3 games, they have covered both games against the Spurs to be 5-0 ATS at home and it continues today imo.
Pistons/Magic Over 185.5
I've written an arm and a leg for all the other plays, but long story short here I expect Van Gundy to ride his players awfully hard today and similar to game 2 in which the Magic should have won and the game went over, I expect the Magic to be an active dog today, show up big, let this total spill over while the Pistons continue to play catch up for most of the game but they will make their run and consequently decide this game in the 4th quarter. But, I expect an incredible amount of intensity from Orlando today as they will dictate the pace of this game and although the victor is uncertain at the close of this game, I do expect the total to go over b/c the Magic will show up. The Over is 4-1 when the Magic are dogs by this margin and the over is 10-2 in the last 12 ballgames in Detroit of late.
Rangers -103
You remember the Brawl between these 2 teams just recently? Guess who was on the mound, Gabbard. Richie S. unencessary charged the mound in my opinion as that ball really was not closed to hitting him besides being high on the strike zone. But, Sexson is having a frustrating season along with the rest of the Marniers thus he went a-wol on Gabbard and caused the fight and consequently sits at home for about 4 more games with a suspension. He was also dealing with personal problems during this time as well so he is simply frustrated overall imo. However, Gabbard has been great this season. He didn't get to finish the last game in which these 2 teams faced off b/c he got thrown out, but didn't yield a run in that game, he has pitched 4 of 5 quality starts, has a 1.85 ERA overall, came over from the Boston trade for Gagne and is pitching extremely well, Felix has given up 24 hits and 14 runs, in his last 17 and change innings of work as he is struggling and I expect the Ranger bats to do well as Felix had a lot to say to the Rangers players mouthing off last time around as the fight was coming to a close. Just You-tube, Richie Sexson Brawl and you will see near the end of the brawl Hernandez is mouthing off, that might come back to bite him today. Rangers are 6-1 vs. a Righty of late and the Mariners have lost their last 6 road games.
Indians -114
Simple reasoning here behind the Indians, I like the A's as a young and scrappy team but Cleveland has several positive things going for them today. First of all, this is the second time they see Dusch, they lost to him earlier this year and that usually means the opposing team has an edge in getting revenge for their previous loss. For example, you saw what happened with Padilla and Bedard when they faced both opposing teams for the second time as the first time 2 runs total were scored in that ballgame, hitters adjusted and 25 runs were scored in yesterday's ballgame between both teams. Just goes to show, that hitters and pitchers adjust if they get spanked before. Byrd comes off a rough start in his last start, he is at home and I expect him to bounce-back as he has yet to have back to back non-quality starts outside of his first start this year. I look for the Indians to play well today behind Byrd on the bounce-back from the Yankees loss he had his last time out, I expect the Indians to hit Dutsch better and pick up the win today. Indians are 8-1 when Byrd starts as a favorite by this margin.
