Tuesday Service Plays 7/29/08

[the duke]

Comps

James Patrick?s Diamond Club

Tigers vs. Indians 7:05 p.m. est.
Ginter has answered the bell for Cleveland since his call up. The trouble with Cleveland is their inept line-up. Tigers are Under the Total in 8 of 10 Gallaraga starts and 6 of 7 of his road starts. Runs at a premium in this game puts our Tuesday complimentary selection in American League action on #968 Cleveland-Detroit Under the Total



Marc Lawrence

Play On: Milwaukee w/Sheets

Note: The Brewers host the Cubs in Game Two of this pivotal four-game series when Ben Sheets takes the hill in Milwaukee. As steady as ever, Sheets has issue 11 walks against 46 strikeouts in his last seven home starts. He loves hurling in July, too, as evidenced by a 9-3 mark when at home. In those twelve starts he compiled a powerful 12 walk/84 strikeout ratio as well. His counterpart, Carlos Zambrano, is winless in his last three starts against Milwaukee and sports a not so impressive 24/35 walk-to-strikeout ratio in his last nine starts. With Big Ben 4-0 in his last four team starts against Chicago we'll back the Brewers here tonight. Key Stat: Milwaukee is 18-1 at home on Tuesdays.


Brad Diamond Sports


PLAY ON: WASHINGTON over Philadelphia
Not afraid to go against the hitting machine of Philly down in Washington on Tuesday night, especially considering that retooled right hander Brett Myers is on the hill. As a road chalk in this price range (with Myers) the Phillies are 1-11. Take the Nationals here.



Steve Janus


MLB | Jul 29
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates +117

The Pirates have won 4 of their last 5 at home with a left-handed pitcher on the mound. The Rockies are just 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road favorite, they are 9-24 against teams that have a winning record at home, and they are just 7-15 on the road against any team with an overall losing record. Good value on Pittsburgh tonight at home.


Bob Harvey

MLB | Jul 29
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians

Total under10 -115

Pitching should dominate tonight as the Tigers and Indians resume their series. In his last outing, Detroit?s Andres Galarraga took a perfect game into the seventh inning before surrendering a hit. Gallaraga, who started the year in the minors, has been a godsend for the pitching starved Tigers. He?s 8-4 on the year with a 3.27 ERA and he?s been even better against Cleveland going 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA. Former Tiger Matt Ginter gets the call for Cleveland tonight. Ginter is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and has a 1.80 ERA in five career relief outings versus Detroit. Both teams are sub .500 to the low side this season while the Tigers are 30-21-2 to the UNDER this season. Both offenses are struggling and both pitchers are hot coming into this contest.

 

[the duke]

comps

Jimmy The Moose

Game: Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays Jul 29 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

Reason: Tampa has been playing great for most of the season but tonight they face a hot Jays team with their ace on the mound. Tampa is 4-10 in their last 14 games as an underdog. Tampa has lost 6 of Garza's last 7 road starts. The Jays have won 6 of their last 7 games. Toronto is 10-2 in their last 12 home games. The Jays are 8-1 in their last 9 games as a home favorite. The Jays are 43-12 in Halladay's last 55 home games. In his last 51 starts vs. division opponents the Jays are 36-15. Toronto has won 4 of his last 5 home starts vs. the Rays. Play on the Toronto Blue Jays -.


Matt Fargo

LAA Angels vs. Boston Red Sox (MLB) - Jul 29, 2008 7:05 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -107 Boston Red Sox

I mentioned in this week?s diamond preview how this series is a possible preview of a second consecutive postseason meeting. The Angels have the best record in baseball but do they really need to be the favorites here in this spot? Not against the Red Sox who still possess the best home record in baseball. Boston was able to salvage the final game of its series against the Yankees and getting swept could have taken its toll on this team. The Red Sox are hitting .295 at home, 4th best in baseball. Boston is 30-10 on the season after a win in Game Two, Three and Four.

As mentioned, the Angels have the best record is baseball but that doesn?t mean they need to be favored on the road against a team that is arguably just as good. Especially a team that has owned them over the past few years. They have been doing it with solid pitching as the offense has been strangely absent on the road, hitting just .249 which is 5th worst in the American League. Even the overall hitting of .261 is lower than expected. Los Angeles is 8-21 in the last 29 meetings in Boston.

One of the reasons for this price is the pitching of John Lackey. He is having a solid season as he is 8-2 with a 3.02 ERA in his 13 starts. He has had some trouble of late as two of his last three starts were forgettable as he allowed six runs in those. What is not being taken into consideration are the struggles he has had in this venue. In seven starts at Fenway Park, he is 1-4 with a 7.46 ERA and 2.03 WHIP. Only two of those were quality outings. The Angels are 2-11 in Lackey?s last 13 starts against the Red Sox.

The other reason for this price has been the pitching of Clay Buchholz which has been inconsistent. This will be his fourth start since getting called back up from the Minors and while his ERA is 6.60 over the those three outings, he showed much better signs last time out. He allowed three runs in 5.1 innings while striking out seven. Two home runs were the issue. He was roughed up for four earned runs in 4.2 innings against the Angels two starts back but tossed a quality start against them last season in a win over Lackey. Play Boston Red Sox 1.5 Units



N.Y. Mets at FLORIDA (+110) Bobby Maxwell

We're playing the Marlins in this one because the Mets are starting the unreliable Oliver Perez (6-6, 4.15 ERA) tonight and this guy is tough to decipher. He's brilliant one start and then lousy in another. We're banking on the lousy one tonight.

Perez was great against the Phillies Thursday as he gave up one run in 7 2/3 innings of a 3-1 win. Now we're counting on him being bad as he's got a 3.75 ERA in two starts against the Marlins this season.

The Marlins beat the Mets 7-3 on Monday when they rallied for five runs in the eighth inning to pull within one game of New York in the race for the N.L. East.

Scott Olsen (6-5, 4.07) is on the hill for Florida and he didn't fare well on Thursday when he gave up six runs in six innings of a 6-3 in Chicago. But he is 4-3 with a 3.12 ERA in 12 starts at home.

The Marlins are 9-3 in their last 12 games as an underdog and 5-1 at home against teams with a winning record. They are also 4-0 in the second game of a series. Meanwhile the Mets are 0-4 when Perez starts as a favorite and as a team they are 1-8 their last nine games as a road favorite.

Florida has won three of its last four and we like their chances of getting to Perez early in this one. Let's take the plus-money on the Marlins at home.

4♦ FLORIDA

 

[the duke]

CappersAccess


Tue (MLB) Brewers
Tue (MLB) A's



ARMVIN SPORTS

CHICAGO CUBS 106

TEXAS RANGERS -135



Sharp Sports Advisors

BOSTON RED SOX -105




Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Mets last night. Today it's the Mets again. The surplus is 265 sirignanos.


HONDO

Formerly hot Hondo continued to chill for the third straight game as he was repelled from the winner's cir cle by the Chisox' dismal failure last night in Minnesota.

Tonight, with the earnings down to 680 rozemas, Mr. Aitch will try to re-route with Galarraga over the Native Americans - 10 units on the Tigers.

 

[the duke]

Wild Bill

Tuesday, July 29

Rockies -120 (5 units)
Over 9 Phils-Nationals (5 units)
St Louis +150 vs Campillo (5 units)
Cincinnati +105 vs Moehler (5 units)
Over 9 Angels-Red Sox (5 units)
Yankees -165 (5 units)
KC +105 (5 units)
Toronto -155 (5 units)
Over 7 1/2 Rays-Jays (5 units)

 

[the duke]

Scott Ferrall


BOSTON +105 and Buchholzover Lackey and the Angels--it won't be easy though. Lackey is a freak and he brings it hard every time out

Cleveland +105 over Detroit--It's Ginter over Galarraga at the Jake. Hey, the Tribe are bound to win a few times, right ?

SF +110 over LA Dodgers--Matt Cain has been getting tough to beat of late and Johnson hasn't pitched, so I like the odds here on the Giants

SD -125 over Arizona--Chris Young returns and tops Davis and the D'Backs

Milwaukee -120 over ChiCubs--Ben Sheets over Zambrano in the game of the week at Miller Park. This series is going to be sick

Houston -110 over Cincy--Moehler over Arroyo at Minute Maid

 

[the duke]

John Fina

July 29, 2008

Selection: Seattle/Texas Over 11.5 (-110)

Reason: Put us down on the Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers Over 11.5 for our Free MLB Selection on Tuesday. Today we see a high-scoring game as the Seattle Mariners do battle with the Texas Rangers. One reason why we expect a high-scoring game is because both these teams will send to the mound struggling starting pitchers. This says it all... The Seattle Mariners Starting Pitcher (Carlos Silva) has a 5.62 ERA on the season, while Texas Rangers Starting Pitcher (Luis Mendoza) has a 7.16 ERA on the season. As you can see, both these starting pitchers have been struggling as of late. To say the least, we should see many runs scored tonight! Take the Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers Over 11.5!


Brian Marshall

July 29, 2008

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Plays On: Tampa Bay Rays (+140)

Game Analyses: There is no "Game Analysis" with today's free pick. Take the Tampa Bay Rays!


Tony Mathews

July 29, 2008

Matchup: Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Selection: Colorado/Pittsburgh Over 10.5 (-110)

Explanation: We expect a high-scoring game as the Colorado Rockies face-off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Tuesday's MLB contest.

The Colorado Rockies will use starting pitcher Glendon Rusch. Glendon Rusch has struggled this season. In fact, Glendon Rusch has a 5.74 ERA on the season. We see Glendon Rusch giving up many runs once again tonight.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will use starting pitcher Yoslan Herrera. Yoslan Herrera has also struggled this season. In fact, Yoslan Herrera has a 9.75 ERA on the season. We also see Yoslan Herrera giving up many runs once again tonight.

The bottom line, we should see many runs scored tonight!

Take the Colorado Rockies/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 10.5!

 

[the duke]

JEFFERSONSPORTS 1-3 yesterday -3.29 units

19-11-1 last 31 plays 63%

49-29-1 last 79 plays 63%

MLB RECORD
+28.71 units (+2871 playing 100 per game)

MLB EARLY RELEASE
METS-120
TORONTO-155

 

[the duke]

Jim Feist

My free pick of the day is the game between (957) STL Cardinals and (958) ATL Braves. Take "(958) ATL Braves". A pair of fine pitchers face off today as both their respective clubs look to climb back into the Pennant races. The Cardinals start Todd Wellemeye who despite having a fine record of 8-4 on the season has only garnered a victory in one of his last seven starts. Wellemeyer won't give the Cards a lot of innings seeing that he has lasted past the fifth inning just twice in his last seven starts. Meanwhile, Tim Hudson has been excellent for the Braves. Hudson is 8-1 at home this season with a 2.57 era. He's 4-2 in his last seven starts and is coming off a very nice six inning, no earned run win over the Marlins. Lay the price here on Tuesday with the Braves!!




Dave Cokin

My free pick of the day is the game between (959) CIN Reds and (960) HOU Astros. Take "(959) CIN Reds".
The Reds aren't much good, but they've been world beaters lately when Bronson Arroyo takes the mound. Cincy has won each of his last five starts, and Arroyo is definitely riding one of his hot streaks. Brian Moehler got crushed in his last outing, so I'm willing to back the Reds here to top the Astros.

 

[the duke]

Comps

Tom Freese

Blue Line Club

Boston at Los Angeles (7:05pm)
Los Angeles starter John Lackey is off a phony win in his last start where he allowed twice as many baserunners as innings pitched and still game away with a win. Lackey is 2-11 in 13 career team starts vs. the Red Sox with an ERA of over 6 runs a game. The Angels are 9-21 their last 30 games at Fenway Park. Boston is 39-12 their last 51 games as home favorites and they are 41-18 in Game 2 of a series. The Red Sox are 37-18 when their opponent allows 5 or more runs in their last game. PLAY ON BOSTON vs. Lackey



Jeff Alexander


MLB | Jul 29
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees

Total 1 0? under112

1 Unit PLAY on Orioles/Yankees UNDER 10.5 (action)
I expect Baltimore's bats to quiet considerably today after exploding for double digits runs. The Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in this matchup, 7-2-2 in Yankees last 11 home games, and 9-3-2 in Yankees last 14 games as a favorite. The Under is also 11-4-2 in Yankees last 17 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, and 31-15 in Yankees last 46 games following a loss. Bet the UNDER.


VEGAS EXPERTS

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays

Old habits die hard, so losing on the road is a pitfall that the upstart Tampa Bay Rays simly keep falling back into. They've dropped 9 of their last 11 away from home, including a 3-1 loss here North of the Border last night. It was the second straight game where the team managed only a single run. We find the Rays at 4-21 on the road after scoring 1 run or less in their previous game.

Play on: Toronto



Big Al McMordie

Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians (MLB) - Jul 29, 2008 7:05 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -113 Detroit Tigers Pick

At 7:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Cleveland Indians. With all of the disappointments this season for the Tigers, including newly-acquired starter Dontrelle Willis, veteran closer Todd Jones (who was recently removed from that role after a series of poor outings), and the early-season slump of leadoff man, and starting center-fielder, Curtis Granderson, they must be feeling pretty happy about the progress of 26-year-old righthanded starter Armando Galarraga. Galarraga, who starts tonight's game for Detroit, has been the best positive surprise this season for this Tiger organization. And he seems to keep getting better and better with each start as he took a perfect game into the seventh inning of his last start against the Kansas City Royals on July 23. As good as Galarraga has been overall this season, he has been even better on the road for this franchise. In 10 starts this season away from Comerica Park, Galarraga is a very dominant 6-2 with a 2.69 ERA. In addition, Galarraga has already beaten this Cleveland team twice this season, by a combined score of 18-4. Take the Tigers.

 

[the duke]

Comps

Anaheim at BOSTON (+105) Chris Jordan

Anaheim proved its worth as the American League giant last night, toppling the defending champs on their turf. Payback will be a bitch, and then some. Not only will Boston get revenge for last night?s loss, but in this pitching rematch from July 18, I expect Clay Buchholz to out-pitch Lohn Lackey, who might be 2-0 in his last two starts, but he?s also given up nine earned runs over 12 innings.

In fact, it?s been a rough month for the right-hander, who has a 7.61 ERA and a .346 opponent batting average in July while surrendering six runs in three of his four starts. Lackey is 2-6 with a 6.01 ERA in 12 career outings versus Boston, so I?m not too concerned his lone quality start was against the defending champs.

That was in Anaheim, this one is in Fenway. Take the slight home pup in this one, and go ahead and list Buchholz, as he?s 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA in three home starts, as the Sox get back on track tonight.

4♦ RED SOX

 

[the duke]

Comps

Colorado (-130) at PITTSBURGH Drew Gordon

After falling to the Pirates 8-4 yesterday, I'm calling for the Rockies to bounce back strong tonight, and it all starts with a much more favorable pitching match up.

Oh sure, Yoslan Herrera had a great start against the soft-hitting Padres in his last one, but let's not forget the start prior. You know, the one where this very same Rockies offense lit him up for a whopping 7 runs in just 1 2/3 innings at Coors July 19th! Guys, needless to say, Herrera is EXACTLY what the doctor ordered to get this surging Rockies offense back on track tonight, and the fact they're crushing righties to the tune of a .352 average over their last 10 games only stregthens my point!

On the flip side, we can expect a good things from southpaw Glendon Rusch, who's won 3 straight starts, allowing 5 runs over his last 16 2/3 innings! True, he's not going to blow opposing offenses away, but he handled a solid Brewers batting order at Miller Park just fine July 9th, allowing 1 run over 6 innings... So don't tell me he can't get it done at PNC Park! Note, even with yesterday's win over lefty Valerio de los Santos, the Bucs are still just 12-17 against southpaw starters this season.

Bottom line, we'll chalk up yesterday's loss to an unfavorable pitching match up, but tonight, the situation is reversed, as Herrera's 9.75 ERA should get put to the test in this one. In the end, the Rockies smashed Herrera the last time they faced him, and while he maybe more comfortable at home tonight, the story remains the same - Rockies roll!

Take Colorado behind Rusch over Pittsburgh and Herrera in this MLB match up.

4♦ COLORADO



Chicago Cubs (+115) at MILWAUKEE Michael Cannon

Take the Cubs tonight when they travel to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers.

Fantastic pitching matchup as Carlos Zambrano goes against Ben Sheets.

Zambrano is 11-4 on the year with a 2.96 ERA. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA in his last three starts and has faced the Brewers twice this season without recording a decision despite allowing just one earned run in 13 innings.

For his career Zambrano is 9-8 with a 3.87 ERA in 21 games.

Sheets is 10-3 on the year with a 2.87 ERA. He?s 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA in two games against the Cubs this season. The right-hander is 0-1 with a 3.50 ERA in his last three starts.

In what is obviously going to be a tight game, I like the Cubs to come out on top.

Take the Cubs for the road win.

2♦ CHICAGO CUBS



Jorge Gonzalez

BALTIMORE (50 - 55) at NY YANKEES (58 - 47)

Tuesday, 7/29/2008 7:05 PM
DANIEL CABRERA (R) vs. DARRELL RASNER (R)

Take the Yankees on the Run Line for 1 unit

The Bronx Bombers passed up a great opportunity to gain ground on the D-rays when they were clubbed 13-4 by the Orioles and the Rays of Tampa Bay fell to the Toronto Blue Jays 3-1. The Yankees were never in the game as they trailed 11-0 before they even got any runs up on the board. The Yankees have lost two straight games after winning eight straight games since the All-Star break. The Orioles will be sending the struggling Daniel Cabrera (6-6, 4.86 ERA) to the mound while the Yankees will counter with Darrell Rasner. (5-7, 4.83) Both pitchers have been less than impressive over their last three starts. After an impressive start to the season Cabrera has struggled as of late with a record of 1-5 with a 6.15 ERA in 12 starts. During the 12 starts Cabrera has walked 40 batters. Control has always been a problem with Cabrera. Cabrera led the major leagues in walks last season with 108 walks. Putting the Yankees on base will be a sure recipe for disaster. Despite the two loses the Yankees have been hitting the ball well over their 10 games batting .299 as a team and scoring 5.5 runs per contest. On their home field, the Yankees have won 10 of their last 11 games. Not to take anything away from the Orioles who scored a season high 13 runs yesterday, but the chances of them repeating on their best game of the season against the Yankees here in this spot will not be likely. Darrell Rasner has already faced the Orioles twice this season limiting them to one run on 10 hits over 13 innings. With days numbered on Yankee Stadium, I expect to see a lot of emotion and fireworks out of the Yankee line-up down the stretch of the regular season.


Alex Smart

Game: Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Game Time: 7/29/2008 8:05:00 PM
Prediction: under

The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers, two teams competing for the NL Central lead, will send out two very capable throwers to the hill tonight, in a confrontation that promises to produce a pitchers duel. The Cubbies righty starter Carlos Zambrano(11-4,2.96 ERA) is in good form having won 4 of their L/5 outings, and will be primed to bring his best stuff out in this important contest and series. The Venezuelan hurler has been particularly tough on the Brewers this season allowing them one run in 13 innings of work, spanning 2 starts for a minuscule 0.69 ERA. I expect he will continue his stellar efforts against a Brewer batting order that has looked vulnerable vs right handed pitching this season , as is evident by a .245 BA. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent, from the Brew crew, Ben Sheets ( 10-3, 2.87 ERA) is also in consistent form. The veteran right hander will be very motivated to stop a Cubs batting order that has hit just .132 against him in 2 starts this season. I expect a continuation of that solid work, against a Cubs offense that is not as potent on the road as they are at home, as their below average .254 BA as visitors, would indicate. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 16-5-1 in Zambranos last 22 road starts . Under is 4-0 in Zambranos last 4 starts vs. Brewers . Play under


Nelly

Baltimore + over New York

The Yankees are playing well right now but last night the Orioles proved they are not intimidated and still fighting this season. The Yankees are 3-7 in Darrell Rasner?s last ten starts and his overall ERA is 4.83 on the season. In four of his last seven starts he has allowed four or more runs and the Yankees bullpen has seen a lot of work the last two nights. Daniel Cabrera has been a much better pitcher on the road this season and he has beat New York twice already this season with impressive efforts. Baltimore has actually won six of ten meetings so far this season and New York could fall for the third straight game tonight.

 

[the duke]

Comps

TONY WESTON

Im going with the over on the Phillies and Nationals tonight.

Consider, first, the starting pitchers. The Phillies scheduled starting pitcher Brett Myers comes into this game having given up at least three earned runs in each of his last five starts. In that five-game stretch Myers has allowed 23 earned runs in 26 innings of work as the over is 2-2-1 in that stretch.

Washington's scheduled starter, Colin Balester, has given up 13 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings of work while the over is 4-0 in his four starts.

Also consider that the over is 3-0 in Phillies last three games and is 4-1-1 its last six, while the over is 5-4 in Washington's last nine games.

It?ll be another high-scoring game and the Phillies and Nationals will breeze past the total, which is set at about 9. Go with the over easy tonight.

3♦ PHILLIES-NATIONALS OVER (On a 1-5♦ Scale)


MATT RIVERS

Tuesday take the coin back with the Cardinals in Atlanta.

(Possible pitching change but stay with play)

Tim Hudson is very good and certainly superior to Todd Wellemeyer but this Braves' squad cannot be laying such a price here like this. Atlanta is pretty much all done for the season and are about to be a seller. They were just drilled in Philadelphia in somehow losing two of those three games thanks to blowing huge huge leads. Brian McCann injured himself there and Chipper Jones is banged up as well. Mark Teixeira is as on the block as anybody could ever be and it's about that time for the Bravos to pretty much quit on the season.

The Cardinals on the other hand may not even be as talented as the Braves but Tony LaRussa has done a phenomenal job this season in keeping his Redbirds hanging around and with the great Albert Pujols can easily win this game today. Throw in Ryan Ludwick, Troy Glaus, Rick Ankiel and a few others and I will gladly take a competent price back.

St. Louis' bullpen is not good at all and can blow any lead any day but this takeback is sweet on what is still the better overall team against what has become mush and in the end plus money is perfect here.



Scott Delaney

We take the road team in this American League battle, as Gil Meche is currently working in his most successfully stretch of the campaign, as he?s now 5-1 with a 2.81 ERA over his last eight starts. I am fully aware that he is 2-7 with a 4.03 ERA in 16 career starts versus the As, but he has allowed just one run and seven hits over 13-1/3 innings over his last two starts.

He should get the run support hell need, as the Royals take on Greg Smith, who has lost three straight decisions and comes in after allowing four runs and five hits over six frames against Tampa Bay. The loss put him at 0-3 with a 6.10 ERA in his last four starts. Oakland has lost 10 of 12 now, while the Royals have captured two in a row. Lets take the value price with the road team in this one.

3♦ ROYALS


VERNON CROY

New York Mets vs. Florida Marlins (MLB) - Jul 29, 2008 7:10 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: 108 Florida Marlins

1 Unit Florida ML, We are getting solid value here tonight with the Marlins who are 8-4 when Scott Olsen (6-5, 4.07) has started for them at home this season. Oliver Perez (6-6, 4.15 ERA) got rocked in his last outing against Florida giving up 3 homeruns while walking 4 batters over just 6 innings and I look for Florida to hit him hard tonight at home. Perez has struggled with his control this season walking 64 batters over 117 innings while Olsen has pitched solid at home with an ERA of just 3.12 over 75 innings. The Mets are just 5-13 this season on the road with a moneyline of -100 to -125 and the Mets are 23-14 at home when the posted total is 9 to 9.5. Take the Marlins as my Free MLB Play for Tuesday night and make sure you get on my 14-4 MLB Sides run which continues tonight.

 

[the duke]

Comps

BEN BURNS

GAME: St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves Jul 29, 2008 7:00PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: Atlanta Braves

REASON FOR PICK: Injuries have taken a big toll on the Braves and it's true that their chances of making the playoffs are now getting quite bleak. That doesn't mean they can't win tonight though, particularly as they should enjoy a significant advantage on the mound. Wellemeyer started the season well. However, he's gone just 1-3 with a terrible 7.00 ERA in his last seven starts. For the season, the Cardinals are just 3-6 (-3.2) in his nine road starts.

On the other hand, Campillo is 2-0 with a stellar 1.23 ERA and 0.818 WHIP his last three starts. Campillo was beating the Phillies in his last start but only got to pitch 1 2/3 innings due to a rain delay. He was excellent in his previous start though, tossing seven shutout innings at Florida, while allowing just four hits. He had six K's to just one walk in that game and the Braves won by a score of 4-0.

The Braves, who lost their third straight yesterday, have been an excellent bet over the years, after suffering three or more consecutive defeats. In fact, they're a highly profitable 78-39 (+31.6) over the past decade, after losing their previous three games. Consider backing the Braves to bounce back and even up the series.


WINNING POINTS

NY METS -125 over FLORIDA

We scored a nice win with the Marlins last night,but it's time to reverse course and jump on the Mets. The lefty vs. lefty matchup is favorable to the visitor, a team that checks in with a 20-11(+$510) record vs. southpaws, averaging 5.2 runs per game in those contests. Florida has not fared as well in that situation (7-12, -$345 in night games, averaging 4.2 runs per game overall), and Oliver Perez has posted a 1.98 ERA in his two most recent outings. The Mets are playing well and they have the edge tonight


Gold Medal Club

Cincinnati vs Houston
PLAY OVER 9.5

Simply a case of two starters in poor current form. Arroyo carries a lofty 7.35 road era into tonights game, and was shelled back in April by the Astros getting tagged for 8 earned runs. Same story for Moehler who has 5.87 era in his last 3 starts, 0-4 vs the Reds with a whopping 8.10 era in those contests.

John Martin

MLB | Jul 29
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies -149

1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -149
(Listing Myers and Balester)

Brett Myers should be able to find his groove tonight against a terrible Washington team scoring just 3.5 runs per game at home this season. Myers has allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of his last three starts against the Nationals. Collin Balester is 0-2 with an atrocious 7.04 ERA through his last three starts for Washington. The Phillies are 41-15 after allowing 8 runs or more 2 straight games since 1997. Washington is 4-19 after scoring 1 run or less this season. The Nationals are just 6-24 after playing 4 or more consecutive road games this season.

 

[MLBKING]

Carlo Campanella comp

Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

Reason: Atlanta is a large home Favorite on Tuesday as they start Hudson on the mound. Hudson's won back-to-back starts, including his last start which he allowed 0 Earned Runs in 6 Innings Pitched at Florida during a 9-4 victory. The Braves won't get that third straight win behind Hudson, as we find him at 1-7 after giving up 1 Earned Run or less in his previous start this season! St. Louis becomes LIVE DOG in here.

7* Play On St. Louis +150

 

[MLBKING]

SPORTS ADVISORS

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago Cubs (62-44) at Milwaukee (60-46)

A pair of aces square off tonight at Miller Park, where the Brewers? Ben Sheets (10-3, 2.87 ERA) is scheduled to oppose the Cubs? Carlos Zambrano (11-4, 2.96) as the top two teams in the N.L. Central continue a key four-game series.

Chicago gutted out a 6-4 victory on Monday, moving to 4-2 in its last six games and boosting its divisional lead to two games over the Brewers. Still, Lou Piniella?s club is just 7-13 in its last 20 on the highway and 2-9 in its last 11 as an underdog.

The Brewers have come back to earth after a seven-game winning streak, losing three of their last four, all at home. On the bright side, Milwaukee is still on runs of 12-6 as a home favorite and 19-9 against the N.L. Central.

These teams have alternated wins and losses against one another over the last six meetings.

Zambrano is 3-1 with a 2.31 ERA in four starts since returning from a stint on the disabled list. Also, he?s dominated the Brewers twice this year, giving up just one run on 10 hits in 13 innings (0.69 ERA), but the Cubs lost both games at home by identical 4-3 scores. In fact, Chicago is just 3-7 in Zambrano?s last 10 starts against Milwaukee, but 3-1 during this stretch at Miller Park.

The Brewers are 14-6 with Sheets toeing the rubber this year, including 6-2 in his last eight. However, they?re only 4-3 when the right-hander pitches at home, where Sheets sports a solid 2.96 ERA. Finally, going back to last season, the Brewers have won four straight games against the Cubs with Sheets on the bump, though all four wins came at Wrigley Field, including two this year by scores of 4-3 and 10-7.

The over is on runs of 8-2 for Milwaukee at home, 8-1-2 in this rivalry at Miller Park, 4-1 when Sheets pitches at home, 16-7-1 when Sheets battles a divisional foe, 4-0 for Sheets at home against Chicago, 4-1 when Zambrano pitches in Milwaukee and 8-3 when Zambrano goes off as an underdog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE and OVER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

L.A. Angels (65-40) at Boston (61-46)

John Lackey (8-2, 3.02) looks to defeat Clay Buchholz (2-5, 5.81) and the Red Sox for the second time this month when he takes the mound for the Angels in the middle game of this three-game series at Fenway Park.

Los Angeles, which owns baseball?s best record, improved to 10-2 in its last 12 games with Monday?s 7-5 win in Boston. The Halos are also on streaks of 5-1 on the road, 7-1 against the A.L. East and 6-0 against the Red Sox. Meanwhile, Boston has dropped six of 10 games since the All-Star break, but Terry Francona?s squad is still riding streaks of 41-14 at home and 21-9 against the Angels at Fenway Park.

Lackey held the Red Sox to three runs on five hits in seven innings on July 18 in Los Angeles en route to an 11-3 victory. Despite that result, Lackey is just 2-6 with a 6.01 ERA in 12 career regular-season starts versus Boston, and including the playoffs, the Angels are 2-11 all-time with Lackey facing the Sox, including 1-7 at Fenway Park.

Lackey has a 7.64 ERA in his last three outings, but L.A. won all three and is 10-3 in the right-hander?s 13 starts this year, including 5-1 on the road.

Buchholz is 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA in three starts since being recalled from Triple-A, though Boston did earn a 6-3, 12-inning victory in Seattle in the right-hander?s most recent start on Wednesday. Still, the Red Sox are just 3-8 with Buchholz on the hill this season, including the 11-3 loss to Lackey and the Angels in Anaheim on July 18. Also, Buchholz has pitched through the sixth inning just three times in 11 starts.

The over is 4-0 in Lackey?s last four starts overall, 4-1 in his last five against the Red Sox, 5-0-1 in Buchholz?s last six outings and 2-0 in Buchholz?s two career starts against the Angels. Also, the over is 10-4-2 in the last 16 series meetings in Boston and 6-2-1 in Boston?s last nine at Fenway.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and OVER


Chicago White Sox (59-45) at Minnesota (58-47)

Glen Perkins (7-3, 4.08) gets the nod for the Twins, who look to inch closer to the White Sox in the A.L. Central race as this four-game series continues at the Metrodome. Chicago is scheduled to hand the ball to Clayton Richard (0-0, 9.00 ERA) for his second career big-league start.

Minnesota rolled to a 7-0 victory Monday night for its third straight win. The Twins, who had lost five in a row to Chicago prior to Monday, are now on a 19-5 run at home. Meanwhile, the White Sox have followed a four-game winning streak with consecutive losses. They?re also 7-15 in their last 22 on the road and 1-10 in their last 11 on artificial turf.

The host is 10-2 in this rivalry in 2008.

Perkins saw a string of four straight quality starts end his last time out at Yankee Stadium, where he gave up five runs in six innings of a 5-1 loss. Still, the Twins are 9-4 in the lefty?s last 13 starts, including 5-2 at home. However, in his lone career start against the White Sox in Chicago on June 9, Perkins allowed three runs in 5 1/3 innings, getting a no-decision in Minnesota?s 7-5 loss.

Richard lasted just four innings in his major-league debut on Wednesday against the Rangers, giving up five runs (four earned) on seven hits. However, Chicago?s offense bailed out the southpaw in a 10-8 victory.

The under is 5-0 in Perkins? last five starts and 16-5 in Chicago?s last 21 games on artificial turf.

ATS ADVANTAGE:MINNESOTA and UNDER

 

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ARTHUR RALPH

TUES Florida Marlins

 

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Insider Sports Report

Detroit/Cleveland (MLB) UNDER 10

 

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ROCCO SPACAMURO

100* Blue Jays -153

 

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Big Board Sports Tuesday July 29, 2008

**Premium Play** Detroit Tigers

 

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20* game is on Detroit Tigers

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