Tuesday Service Plays 7/29/08

[MLBKING]

GAMBLERS WORLD

Tip of the Day

Game: 7:05PM, Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Prediction: Colorado Rockies

Current Line: -125 Over/Under: 10

Reason: The Colorado Rockies and the Pittsburgh Pirates will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at PNC Park.
Lefthander Glendon Rusch will take the mound for the Rockies to start this game. Rusch is 3-1 this season with a 4.64 ERA.
Starting this game for the Pirates will be Yoslan Herrera. The righthander has a 9.75 ERA to go along with a 1-1 record this season.
Oddsmakers currently have the Rockies listed as 125-moneyline favorites versus the Pirates, while the game's total is sitting at 10.
Nate McLouth had a big fly and two runs batted in, as the Pirates defeated the Rockies 8-4 on Monday night.
Pittsburgh won as -115 home favorites as the game played over the 9.5-run total posted by oddsmakers.
Ryan Doumit went 3-for-4 with two RBIs for the Pirates, while winning pitcher Ian Snell allowed four runs over seven innings for Pittsburgh.
Matt Holliday smashed a two-run dinger for Colorado, as reliever Jason Grilli was tagged with the loss for the Rockies.

 

[MLBKING]

Lt's Lock

Todays play: The Padres -130

 

[MLBKING]

gamblers data

Kansas City -106

 

[MLBKING]

TRIPLE THREAT SPORTS

Date: Tuesday, July 29, 2008


5* Tampa Bay/Toronto OVER (Garza vs Halladay) [7:07pm]

Halladay was tremendous in his last start, but he always seems to pitch extremely well in day games (now 49-18 in his career in day starts), so that one start is not going to keep us off the Over here. He has made two starts against the Rays this year that and has gone 14 innings in those games, allowing 17 hits, ten earned runs (6.42 ERA) with an unspectacular (for him) 10-4 K/W ratio. As for Garza, he pitched very well against Toronto two weeks ago, but that was at home, where he is much more comfortable. He has a 6.04 Away ERA this season and in his only start here in Toronto allowed six hits while walking three batters in 6.2 innings of work. Teamwise, note that the Rays are scoring 4.91 runs per game on the road vs right handed starters this year and that Toronto is scoring 4.75 rpg at home vs right handers. Finally, trend study shows that Rays fit an 8-2 team trend to the Over that is accounting for a combined 9.6 rpg this season, with the Rays getting 6.8 rpg in the last four times in this particular scheduling spot.

 

[MLBKING]

winners Edge - 8/29/08

Phillies/nationals Over 9 - 120 , 6 Unit (total Of The Year )

Arizona D-backs + 110 , 2 Units

Boston Redsox - 110 , 2 Units

K.c Royals - 105 , 1 Unit

Florida Marlins + 110 , 1 Unit

 

[MLBKING]

King Maker

double-dime bet
970 BOS / 969 ANA Over 9

2-Units

 

[MLBKING]

COMPUTERS PLAYS

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Time Game Selections

7:10 p.m. New York Mets at Florida Marlins
(L) Oliver Perez (6-6) vs. (L) Scott Olsen (6-5) Florida Marlins +115
8:05 p.m. Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
(R) Carlos Zambrano (11-4) vs. (R) Ben Sheets (10-3) Chicago Cubs +115
8:05 p.m. Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros
(R) Bronson Arroyo (9-7) vs. (R) Brian Moehler (5-4) Houston Astros -110

 

[MLBKING]

The Duke's Sports



*Best Bet* Minnesota (-130) [Perkins over Richard] for 3 Unit
ChiSox/Twins 7:10: The Twins are playing extremely well at home (19-7 run) and control a 4-0 run in this series. With a favorable pitching matchup, we like our chances here. The Twins' Glen Perkins is coming off a sluggish outing vs NYY but should bounce back here; after all, he has thrown well at home for most of the season and has a sharp bullpen (1.92 ERA @ home) to fall back on. Perkins has allowed just 3 ER or less in 8 of last 9 starts. On the other hand, a tough task awaits for the 'Sox Clayton Richard who will make his first road start after getting
hit hard last Wednesday vs Texas, yet the ChiSox rallied behind him to win. Tonight, however, we'll look for limited run support for him, and the ChiSox' bullpen should continue their sluggishness (6.82 ERA last 10). The White Sox are just 10-17 as a road dog in this price range and should fall to the home-strong Twins.

Los Angeles Angels (+105) [Lackey over Buchholz] for 2 Units
Angels/BoSox 7:05: The Angels flourish on the road following a win (24-10) and we'll take our chances with John Lackey on the hill. Lackey, although he's had a rough time this month, is the ultimate competitor and should rise to the occasion with another strong outing vs Boston. He pitched well in his last outing vs Boston. And we do know that Lackey has had loads of trouble vs Boston in the past; however, again, he is extremely competitive and a big game pitcher and understands the importance of preparation and the significance of this game. Moreover,
the Angels' bullpen remains strong (2.90 ERA last 10). On the other hand, Clay Buchholz (2-5 5.81 ERA) has not exhibited the control to strike fear into a heating up Angels' lineup. We'll roll with the Angels.

 

[the duke]

PlusLineSports

Daily Baseball Pick

Tuesday July 29, 2008 MLB Daily Selections:

Baltimore(Cabrera) vs NYY(Rasner)

NYY -1.5(+115) Runline, Moneyline (-162)

Line Origin: 5 Dimes @ 10:00 am CST July 29

Game Time is 6:05 pm CST July 29

 

[MLBKING]

SAPKOWSKI L3 days 8-2

Best Bet
Colorado

Premium
Minnesota

Free
NY Yankees
Toronto

 

[the duke]

King Creole

MLB Total
double-dime bet972 NYY / 971 BAL Over 10 SportBet
Analysis: 7:05pm ET / BALTIMORE ORIOLES with CABRERA @ NEW YORK YANKEES with RASNER
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

Off all the home plate Umpires on the Tuesday night schedule, the guy with the best "OVER" credentials for the 2008 season will be in Yankee Stadium. CHAD FAIRCHILD gets the call 'behind the dish', and his record for the year stands at 15-8-2 O/U. Current OU streaks for Fairchild include 2-0-1 O/U in his last 3 games (12.9 RPG)... 3-1-1 O/U in his last 5 games (15.4 RPG)... and 8-2-1 O/U in his last 11 games. If needed, he'll be getting an assist from Mother Nature as pre-game forecasts project winds blowing OUT to straightaway Center Field in excess of 10+ MPH.

It's always a good sign when the previous game in the series also went OVER and that's the case tonight. In Game One, Baltimore shocked the Yankees by getting out to an 11-0 lead last night, and held on for a 13-4 upset win (one of Speedee's WINNERS from the Dawg Pound). Both bullpens got significant work in last night, putting added pressure on tonight's starting pitchers... NEITHER of whom is in any kind of decent current form (and 'bottom-feeders', to boot). It's been 'bombs away' for DANIEL CABRERA of the Orioles lately. His last 2 starts have seen 13 earned runs allowed in only 10 innings pitched (11.70 ERA). Last 3 starts' K/BB ratio indicates great blow-up potentials as he hs allowed MORE walks (13) than strikeouts (only 9). he also has plenty of recent series history vs tonight's opponent. Cabrera has started 7 games vs the Yankees in the last year and a half. His OU record in those 7 starts is 6-1 O/U. ERA stands at 5.95. He's also a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in his last 5 TUESDAY starts..... and 6-2 O/U in his last 8 roles as road underdog. His counterpart tonight will be DARRELL RASNER, who comes in with a 5-1-1 O/U mark in his last 7 starts. Rasner's ERA in those 7 starts is a whopping 7.34. His K/BB ratio of 11-10 in his last 3 starts can also be considered pretty rickety.

This series has gone 9-3-2 O/U in the last 14 games played in Yankee Stadium. BALTIMORE is on a current run in which they are averaging 6 runs per game in their last 10 games with a 7-3 O/U record. They are 20-6-2 O/U in their last 28 roles as an underdog... 10-1 O/U as BIG dogs of -150 or higher... a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in Game Two of a series... 13-3 O/U vs the AL East division... 4-1 O/U playing off a (rare) win... and 4-1-1 O/U in their last 5 games vs righties. NEW YORK is on a nice offensive uptick of their own as they are scoring at a 6 RPG clip in their last 7 games.... and have gone a PERFECT 3-0 O/U in their last 3

 

[the duke]

Jimmy Sirody

Jimmy hit the winner's circle again Monday to improve his recent total run to 8-3.
Cost: $20 Ungraded

League: MLB
Event: Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics on 07/29/2008 at 7:05PM
Condition: Under Kansas City/Oakland

Promotion: Kansas City has dipped below the total in its last seven games while averaging 3.1 runs and batting .241. Oakland has also struggled offensively, scoring 4.1 runs per game and hitting .218 in its last seven outings. Gil Meche has found his groove, yielding one earned run and seven hits over 13 1/3 innings in his past two appearances. Greg Smith has struggled in his last two starts, but he's been an under machine this year, dipping below the number in 13 of 18, including 10 straight under the lights. The A's have scored three runs or less in seven of Smith's last nine efforts. The Royals have knuckled under in 22 of 33 after allowing two runs or less. Oakland has slipped below the number in 38 of 57 after batting .240 or worse over a 10-game span. The A's have also dipped under in 18 of 25 when the total was 7 1/2 or less

 

[MLBKING]

sports Kingz

angels -105

Detroit -120

Milwaukee -120

Yankees -165

Colorado -125

 

[MLBKING]

BRANDON LANG

10 Dime
Tigers
Mets
Twins

5 Dime
Dodgers
Blue Jays

FREE Royals

 

[the duke]

Stan Sharp

MLB Money Line
double-dime bet962 MIL (-125)Bodog vs 961 CHC

Analysis: Stan is Betting the MILWAUKEE today. Stan notes that Milwaukee is 14-6 with Ben Sheets on the mound and Zambrano of the Cubs is just .500 on the road. Expect Milwaukee to get it's revenge tonight. TAKE MILWAUKEE as STAN'S NL REVENGE BIG BET OF THE MONTH and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

 

[MLBKING]

Dave Malinsky

St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: 4* ST. LOUIS/ATLANTA Over

It has been a pair of no-sweat wins with 4* Atlanta Over tickets the last two days, and with many of the same elements in play, we will absolutely put that money on the counter again. The Braves are now on a run in which their last 11 games have seen 136 runs hit the board (12.4 per outing), with nine of those games reaching double figures. Now we have another hot night with vulnerable starters, and that means plenty of opportunities for this one to break open.

The Atlanta bullpen is a mess right now, not just in terms of the quality of performances, but also in how much of the recent load they have had to carry - the starters have only contributed 9.1 innings over the last three games. With Jorge Campillo clearly a wild card tonight, it could be more of the same. Campillo is being brought back two days after Sunday?s rain-shortened stint at Philadelphia, but note that he had already thrown 28 pitches before that game went into a delay. That will cause some rhythm issues for him early, as well as fatigue later, as is the fact that he has not worked from this mound since July 2nd, an ugly outing in a loss to the Phillies. And if he does run into trouble the options for Bobby Cox are not good, with key middle reliever Gary Bennett burned out off of 2.1 innings last night, and few fresh arms with any positive form.

The Braves continue to hit and score, however, even without Chipper Jones and Brian McCann. Although they did not maximize their opportunities last night they had 10 hits, the fifth straight game that they have reached double figures, and they can be counted on to produce vs. Todd Wellemeyer. We cashed a 4* ticket with Milwaukee against Wellemeyer and the Cardinals in his last start, noting the signs of fatigue that could be expected from a former reliever at this time of the season, and while he only allowed two runs over five innings in that game he played with fire the entire way - 10 of the 24 batters he faced reached via either a hit or a walk, and he issued five free passes vs. only two strikeouts. In July he has labored to a 6.51 tune over 27.2 innings, and note his count of 35 hits vs. 11 strikeouts, after it had been 77 vs. 67 entering the month. There is little reason to fear any kind of turnaround from him here, and an inconsistent Cardinal bullpen (Izzie the closer again?) leaves the door open in the latter innings as well.

 

[MLBKING]

WUNDERDOG

New York at Florida (7:10 PM Eastern)
3 units Florida +119 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)

While Oliver Perez was the Mets stopper on the road last season compiling an 8-4 mark, it has been a different story this season, where they stand at 5-6 in his road starts. There is no place like home for Scott Olsen, where the Marlins have been 8-4 in his 12 home starts while he has put up a sparkling 3.12 ERA. Florida has shown signs of heating up winning three of four with two of those wins were in Chicago where no one has been beating the Cubs. The Mets have been a hot team, but are showing signs of dropping off after losing two of their last three. We will back the Marlins as a divisional home dog here.

Chicago at Milwaukee (8:05 PM Eastern)
3 units Milwaukee -1.5 runs +171 (runline) (risk 3 to win 5.1)

The Brewers and the Cubs square off in game 2 in Milwaukee tonight. The Brewers have put some heat on the Cubs as they are just two games back. The Brew Crew got there with the help of a 37-19 run in their last 56 games. The Cubs meanwhile, have settled back to just 17-19 in their last 36 games. A healthy Ben Sheets has allowed two runs or less in nine of his last 12 starts. Carlos Zambrano has also pitched well, but of the Cubs three losses in his home starts, two came at the hands of the Brewers, and he has only led the Cubs to a 5-4 road mark. The Cubs are just 7-13 in their last 20 on the road and 8-14 on the season when taking to the road against winning teams. Overall the Cubs have a 4-5 mark against winning teams with Zambrano on the hill, and just 1-3 on the road with Zambrano carrying a hefty 5.68 ERA in those games. The Brewers win this one comfortably, so we will opt for the runline value here.

Seattle at Texas (8:05 PM Eastern)
3 units Texas -1.5 runs +128 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.

No one expected the Rangers to go this deep into the season above .500 and hanging in wildcard contention. They have done it by simply outscoring teams, especially at home, and especially against RHP. The Rangers have struggled against southpaws, where they are just 11-22, but against the righties Texas has been 43-30. The Rangers have exploded for 159 runs in their last 23 home games or nearly seven a game. This is a Seattle team that is just 5-13 over their last 18 games. In their last 52 losses they have lost by two or more runs in 39 of them or 75% of the time. There is lots of value with the high-scoring Rangers on the runline.

 

[the duke]

Marco D'Angelo

MLB Money Line
double-dime bet960 HOU (-110)BetUS vs 959 CIN

Analysis: Ok tonight we are going to go with Houston as they look to make it 2 in a row against the Reds. The Reds send Bronson Arroyo. This play is based on going against Arroyo who when pitching on the road on grass is just 8-20 over the last 2 seasons. Arroyo's Road ERA is a whopping 7.35 this year. Expect Houston to tee off on him tonight as Arroyo's lifetime ERA against Houston is 6.57. TAKE HOUSTON as MARCO'S PITCHER MISMATCH OF THE MONTH and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

 

[MLBKING]

Rocketman


FREE PLAY TUESDAY

Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota 8:10 PM EST
Play On: 1* Minnesota -125 (Richard/Perkins) Listed

Chicago White Sox are 3-11 this year on artificial turf. Minnesota is 30-18 against division opponents this year. Minnesota is 42-29 at night this season. White Sox are scoring only 4.2 runs per game on the road and 4.6 runs per game against left handed starters this season. Minnesota bullpen has been awesome with a 1.92 ERA at home this year. Richard has a 9.00 ERA in his 1 game pitched this year. Perkins is 7-3 overall, 4-2 at home and 2-1 with a 3.37 ERA his last 3 starts. Minnesota is 3-0 at home vs White Sox this year. We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

 

[the duke]

Greg Daraban

TOP PLAY for Tuesday ** (10 Star Total)
Cost: $20 Ungraded

League: MLB
Event: New York Mets vs Florida Marlins on 07/29/2008 at 4:10PM
Condition: 10* Under NY Mets/Florida

Promotion: 955 NY Mets 57-49 at 956 Florida 56-50 Perez vs Olsen Game 2 of the series. Last night the Marlins won 7-3 at Shea. Perez pitching much better of late as he has evened his record at 6-6. Olsen has been on top of his game is 6-5. Low scoring at Dolphin Stadium. Take NYM/Fla Under