Robert Ferringo
2-Unit Play. Take #976 Texas (-150) over Seattle (8 p.m., Tuesday, July 29)
This is a home team bounce back. The Rangers fit the criteria for a series win that has hit at around 82 percent this year. Home teams have dominated. So when we have a favorite that's been very good at home (Texas) lose the first game of a series to a lesser team that is poor on the road (Seattle) we're playing on the bounceback. And, if we do happen to lose this one today we're going to POUND the Rangers tomorrow. This is going to be a high-scoring affair since we have Jerry Crawford behind the plate. That plays into Texas' strength. Carlos Silva is 2-6 in his career against the Rangers and has a career ERA approaching 8.00 in Arlington. I think Texas makes him pay in a big way today and they win comfortably.
2-Unit Play. Take #966 Los Angeles Dodgers (-120) over San Francisco (10 p.m., Tues., July 29)
This is the same concept as the Rangers game, only with a twist. I always like to fade mid-level pitchers coming off a complete game. It's been a very successful situation for me over the last couple years and we're going to work it against Matt Cain today. The Dodgers have been playing as well as anyone in the league over the last two weeks. They were stunned last night but their late comeback shows me that they actually have the momentum coming into tonight's game. Cain is 0-4 in his seven career starts against the Dodgers and has an ERA of 5.34 in three starts in Los Angeles. I think L.A. gets all over him early and, again, I see a comfortable winner here.
2-Unit Play. Take #953 Philadelphia (-150) over Washington (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 29)
The Mets opened the door for the Phillies yesterday with a loss, and now Philadelphia smells first place. They have actually been a better earner on the road over the last couple months than they have been at home. Brett Myers is pretty much a joke, but the Nationals are just a sad, sad team. Rookie Colin Balester is in a bit over his head in this one, and the youngster has an ERA of 7.71 at home this year and 7.04 in his last three starts. The edge goes to Myers and the Phils.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #955 New York Mets (-125) over Florida (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 29)
I don't see the Mets getting swept in Florida, a place in which they've always dominated. I think they win last night if John Maine doesn't leave with an injury. A tough break, and one the Mets should rally from. The crux of this play is on the team numbers against left-handed hitting. The Marlins are batting just .228 - the worst mark in the Majors - while the Mets are among the Top 10 against southpaws. Scott Olsen has given up 20 total runs in 24 innings (four starts) against the Mets in his career. I hate betting on Oliver Perez (we've gone against him recently waiting for a meltdown, now that we are on him I bet he's a wreck tonight!) but he has been exceptional under his new pitching coach. If he is just 'pretty good' tonight that should be enough for the Mets to even the series.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #963 Arizona (+115) over San Diego (10 p.m., Tuesday, July 29)
We're getting great value here on the Diamondbacks. Arizona, as a team, is hitting .297 over the last week. When they hit, they win. Doug Davis is on the bump and while he has been shaky on the road the Padres are No. 25 in the league against southpaws at just .245. Arizona lost yesterday and I think they are in bounceback mode today against Chris Young, who is making his first start in months. Young is 1-3 with a 5.08 ERA in his career against the Snakes while Davis is 6-3 with a 3.44 against the Dads. Great price on the better pitcher and sharper team.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #967 Detroit (-125) over Cleveland (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 29)
Matt Ginter takes the hill for the Indians and, again, he is over his head. He used to be a Tiger so he knows what this lineup is capable of. It wasn't a stunner to see the Tigers come out a bit flat in Game 1 yesterday after their emotional weekend series with Chicago. But they are a veteran team that understands that it can't give away games and series at this stage. They are better than Cleveland and Armando Galarragga has been a revelation for the Tigers. Detroit is 12-5 in his last 17 starts and are 11-2 as a road favorite. I like a high-scoring game here and I think the Tigers pitcher is better equipped to handle a tight zone and their offense is better equipped to take advantage of it. This one is all Detroit.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #978 Minnesota (-130) over Chicago White Sox (8 p.m., Tuesday, July 29)
This play is a bit like my Mets wager: Chicago is just so bad against lefties that the price is right. Minnesota has won four straight at home against the White Sox, a team that definitely is not built for turf. With the exception of a tough last outing in New York, Glen Perkins has been solid. He had surrendered three runs or less in eight straight starts and I can see him surprising the Sox with his stuff today. Conversely, Chicago trots out Clay Richards, a young kid making just his second career start against a hungry Twins team. Richards gave up five runs in four innings to Texas, another team that, like Minnesota struggles just a touch against Southpaws. That was at home for Richards. Now he's in the Metrodome and I don't see it ending well for him. Chicago is 7-15 on the road, 8-20 on turf, and 5-14 as a road dog. Minnesota is 19-7 at home, 11-2 in the division, and 6-2 in Perkins' last eight starts.
1-Unit Play. Take #970 Boston (-115) over Los Angeles Angels (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 29)
No sweep in this series. The Angels will not sweep Boston again. I am banking on it. Kind of like the Dodgers, I like the momentum that the Red Sox take into today after a valiant comeback last night. Also, John Lackey's nemesis is the Sox. He is 2-6 with a 6.01 ERA against them in his career, including a 1-4, 7.46 in Fenway. I think the line is a bit of an indicator here. Why isn't Lackey favored? Buchholz will be better at home and the Sox will find a way to scrape out a 'W'.
Today's Totals
2.5-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 11.0 Seattle at Texas (8 p.m., Tuesday, July 29)
2-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 10.0 Baltimore at New York Yankees (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 29)
2-Unit Play. Take ?Under? 9.5 Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (8 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 7.5 San Francisco at Los Angeles Dodgers (10 p.m.)
I also have leans on Colorado (I really like), St. Louis, Toronto (I really, really like), the Yankees, and Milwaukee. Writeups to follow on the sides.
