Tuesdays SERVICE PLAY THREAD - 11 / 20

husky

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Charlie Sports

ncaaf. middle tenn st @ troy over 59 (500* )
ncaaf. troy-11' (30*)
cbb. indiana-21' (20*)
cbb. minnesota+1 (20*)
nba. cleveland-6' (10*)
nba. atlanta+7 (10*) free play
 

husky

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Doc?s Sports

3 Unit Play. #728 Take Virginia -10 over Drexel (8:00 pm CN8) The Cavaliers are for real and are coming off an impressive victory at Arizona over the weekend. Now they take on a mid-major that has made some noise in the NCAA tournament previously, but is not at that level in 2007. The number may scare some but it should not, as Virginia is averaging over 85 points per game and thus can cover double-digit spreads. They are also strong on the boards, getting 15 more per game and that bode well when facing a mid-major. Virginia gets it done at home.

3 Unit Play. #729 Take Valparaiso +14 over Vanderbilt (8:00 pm) As mid-majors go, Valpo has consistently been on the best and now took a major step up by joining the Horizon League. They are off to a 2-0 start this season including a victory on the road against IPFW. Vanderbilt struggled to put away a Toledo team last week despite having a huge lead early in that affair. This will be a very competitive game that the Crusaders stay involved from start to finish and thus give us a comfortable pointspread victory. Valpo is holding opponents to just 61 point per game and thus Vandy will not be able to cover this double-digit spread.

5 Unit Play. #754 Take UCLA -4 ? over Michigan State (10:00 pm ESPN) The Spartans were able to dominate Missou on the boards last night and still had trouble putting away Missouri. All the edges favor the Bruins on Tuesday, they played the early game last night giving them three extra hours of rest over Michigan State. The difference in this game will be Kevin Love, as he will exert his will and not allow the Bruins to lose. This will be a low scoring game and the Bruins will pull away late.

Strike Point Sports
2-Unit Play. #718 Take Florida State -20 over Georgia State (7 pm)
The Seminoles had a some major issues this past weekend shooting the ball in tournament play, but look for that to change now back at home, and they'll take some much need frustration out on the Panthers. Florida State has the scorers to make this game one-sided. The four headed monster that is Tony Douglas, Isaiah Swann, Jason Rich and Uche Echefu are quite the bunch, and saying they'll be too much for Georgia State is an understatement. FSU beat UAB this past week, and the Blazers routed the Panthers in their opener. Florida State will be able to do the same. If the Panthers lost to Elon College by 22, then a very athletic and talented Seminoles team will drop the hammer in Tallahassee tonight. They win big and cover in the process.

3-Unit Play. #731 Take Minnesota +1 over Iowa State (8 pm)
With Tubby Smith taking over the reins at Minnesota, things appear on the up and up with the Gophers. Smith has the top three scorers back from last season and eight returnees overall come into '07 after averaging double digit minutes in 2006. The trio of Dan Coleman, Spencer Tollackson and Lawrence McKenzie will be able to take their games to the next level under the guidance of Smith, especially McKenzie running the show at the one. Iowa State lost its top scorer and there is a reason they were picked to finish at or near the bottom of the Big 12. A lot more upside resides with the team from the Big Ten in this match-up, and they will get the better of this meeting. Play Minnesota here.

Ferringo
3-Unit Play. Take #731 Minnesota (+1) over Iowa State (8 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 20)
This is the first road test for Tubby Smith and his boys but I think they have enough here to get a W. Minnesota can matchup with Iowa State?s only semi-strength, size, but I don?t think the Cyclones can matchup with the experience and skill in the Gophers backcourt.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #768 SE Missouri State (-1) over Evansville (8:30 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 20)
There is a solid 79-percent system at work here that suggests a big SEMO victory over a rebuilding Evansville squad. I think the Redhawks? size and experience underneath, along with the home court edge, will be enough to hold off Evansville.

2-Unit Play. Take #748 Marquette (-2.5) over Oklahoma State (7 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 20)
Don?t get sucked into Oklahoma State. This team is still incredibly shaky and proved it by almost blowing a 20-point lead against LSU last night. I don?t think that Marquette will shoot as poorly today and I don?t think that OSU will shoot as well. The Eagles win this one by six or seven and advance to the finals.

2-Unit Play. Take #728 Virginia (-10) over Drexel (8 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 20)
There is the potential for a letdown here for the Cavaliers, but they are so tough at home that I don't see it happening. This is not the same Drexel team of the past two years and this line is short because of their past accomplishments on the road. Virginia has the best player on the floor, and a pair of wings (Joseph, Diane) that Drexel simply can't mathcup with.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #754 UCLA (-4.5) over Michigan State (10 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 20)
Kind of odd that this number is so short. Yes, UCLA doesn?t have two of its top guards. However, they do still have a better interior presence and enough on the outside to get the best of the Spartans. Michigan State has the advantage of the best player on the floor but I think that they are going to find it a lot harder to score against a team that actually plays defense.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #750 Duke (-6.5) over Illinois (9:30 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 20)
Think of it like this: the ACC always tears up the Big 10 in the ACC-Big 10 challenge, so why wouldn?t the Dukies tear up the Illini here? Illinois looked great last night, but they did it against a completely overwhelmed Arizona State team playing its first game. Something tells me that the Blue Devils won?t be scared of Illinois? athleticism or their offense.

1-Unit Play. Take #733 Richmond (-1.5) over Rice (8 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 20)
We have to keep fading Rice. They look like one of the worst teams in the country after two games and they don?t even have a true home court advantage because their facilities are being remodeled. Richmond is no prize, but I?ll take their athleticism and that fact that they?ve already played five games against decent competition, over Rice.
Allen Eastman
1-Unit Play Take #728 Virginia Cavaliers -10 over Drexel Dragons. (Tuesday, November 20, 8:00 pm EST).
Virginia comes in to tonight?s game fresh off an upset of then #17 Arizona in Tuscon. ACC player of the week Sean Singletary will try to help the Cavs avoid the upset bug when they Drexel. The 6-0 senior guard from Philadelphia averaged 23.5 points, eight assists and four rebounds a game in Virginia?s two victories last week en route to earning player of the week honors for the fourth time in his career.Through the first three games of the season, Virginia is out rebounding their opponents 121-74 and shooting 51.4 percent. The Cavaliers have never faced Drexel, but has won 17 straight games against teams from the Colonial Athletic Association since a loss in 1993. Both teams are 3-0 on the season and 1-0 ATS. The Cavaliers are ranked No. 23 in this week?s Associated Press Top 25 Poll, and the victory over Arizona marked their fourth consecutive victory over a team ranked in the AP Top 25. There will be no letdown tonight as the Cavs cruise on their home floor to a fourth straight win.
Vegas Informer
4 Unit Play. #749 Take Over 131 Illinois vs. Duke (Tuesday 11/20 9:30 PM ESPN)
4 Unit Play. #754 Take UCLA ?4 ? over Michigan St (Tuesday 11/20 9:20 PM)
3 Unit Play. #770 Take Utah St ?2 ? over Austin Peay (Tuesday 11/20 9:00 PM)
 

husky

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JeffersonSports

CFB MIDDLE TENN ST.+12

CBB ST. MARYS +4

CBB MINNESOTA +1


NCAA FOOTS 12-4

NCAA HOOPS 6-1-1
 

husky

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ALAN BOSTON

At 0-2 would expect Ind St to come out tremendous energy and try to win home game for new coach. Despite 4-30 from 3 land they got within 7 late to No Tex. They said they got every look they wanted, they just missed. Ricardo Patton is doing his thing at No Ill., that is basically nothing. Non competitive at No Iowa and vs Umass and vs So Ill, would expect similar vs only a bit lesser ISU. IN st minus 12 BIG
Similarly Seton hall has struggled in both games vs tough Monmouth and not so tough Robert Morris, going ot with both. They have overreacted big time. Loyolas loan road game they were run out by rival Towson. Seton hall minus 7 easy.
One of the biggest games for the program, St Marys has the talent and for sure will have the energy to take ORegon to the wire, if not win it. St Marys plus 4.5
 

husky

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Frank Rosenthal

NBA

702 WIZARDS-6 SB
705 LAKERS-1.5 SB
707 SPURS-6 SB
714 NUGGETS-7 SB


COLLEGE HOOPS

722 INDIANA ST-12 SB+
733 RICHMOND-1 SB
740 ST MARYS CA+4.5 SB+
745 PRINCETON+9 SB
750 DUKE-6 SB
754 UCLA-4 SB+
756 SETON HALL-6.5 SB
769 AUSTIN PEAY+3 SB
 

husky

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VSSWins 2007-08 Basketball Investment Programs


NCAA 24-16-2 for +26.8% Bankroll: Top 6% 20-15-2, Regular 5% 4-1

NBA 37-24-0 for +52.65% Bankroll: Top 6% 19-8-0, Regular 5% 18-16-0

NCAA Top Rated Play 6% #731 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS +2/-120 over Iowa State Cyclones

NBA Top Rated Play 6% #714 DENVER NUGGETS -7/-120 over Chicago Bulls
 

MMST

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ATS LOCK
3 Troy

Hoops
4 Duke
4 Marq

ATS FINANCIAL
3 Over Troy

Hoops
3 Mizz
3 Minn
 

husky

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WUNDERDOG

Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Indiana (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on First Half UNDER 108.5 -110

Both of these teams score, which is why we see a sky-high first half total here. It's rare to see a line above 105, nevermind 108.5. It's going to take a ton of scoring, and very little defense, to reach this level. The Lakers actually are a decent defensive team, holding opponents to 42.2% from the field (last five opponents shot only 39.2%). Indiana is a perfect 10-0 UNDER in the first half dating back to last season at home vs. teams that hold opponents to under 43% from the field. The Lakers are 12-3 UNDER in the first half on the road vs. non-conference opponents over that same time span. We'll play the first half to go UNDER this lofty total.





Game: Toronto at Dallas (8:30 PM Eastern)

Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 99 -110

Toronto has allowed just 88.7 per game on the road (43.2 in the first half) this season. In the first half of the season, Dallas is 43-27 UNDER this year and the last two. They are also 24-11 UNDER in the first half over that span after allowing 105+ points. If they also scored 105+ in that last game,t hey are 15-4 UNDER the first half the next game. We like this one to stay low in the first half as Dallas refocuses on defense.







Game: Phoenix at Sacramento (10:00 PM Eastern)

Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 216 -110

It took awhile, but it was obvious that the Suns would start putting up some big points and getting on a run. They have arrived. After the first five averaging only 103.6 points per game, Phoenix has now caught fire, averaging 110.4 ppg in their last five and allowing 100+ in five of their last six. Sacramento has averaged 110+ over their last three games. So they will thrive on the up-tempo as their offense is clicking right now and they are allowing 104.5-ppg on the season. There will be plenty of opportunities to score points here. This one should go comfortably OVER.
 

husky

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Greg Shaker

Tue, 11/20/07 - 10:00 PM Greg Shaker | CBB Total
double-dime bet738 UC Santa Barbara / 737 San Francisco Over 140.0 BetUS
Analysis: NCAAB: San Francisco Dons at Cal Santa Barbara Gauchos - Over 140 -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES
Game Date: 11/20/2007
Note: We have 2 varying styles of play in this contest with the Dons being one of the Highest Tempo Teams in the NCAA and the Gauchos being one of the slowest. San Francisco finished last year at #70 in this department and are currently #111 after the first 3 games. That puts them in the top 1/3. Cal SB has played more uptempo this year than last with the number os shots being much higher, with the exception of the last game verses a nobody and that usually means more controlled play. The Dons are 10-1-1 OVER last 12 played and the last 2 meetings between these two have topped this posted total. The Gouchos love to control the pace on their homecourt and they have done that very effectively giving them UNDER at a 36-15 mark last 51. That is impressive but that may change this year as they have more offensive talent and will put the ball up much more often. This is more than likely going to be a close contest and that should give us the extra benefit of some late game free throws. Both teams are well above average at the free stripe. That is a bonus but I do not think we will need it tonight in Santa Barbara.



Tue, 11/20/07 - 8:00 PMGreg Shaker | CBB Total
double-dime bet736 Memphis / 735 Arkansas St. Over 144.0 BetUS
Analysis: NCAAB: Arkansas State Indians at Memphis Tigers - Over 144 -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES
Game Date: 11/20/2007
Note: Once again this year Memphis is setting a furious pace and is currently #18 in that department. They do play a good brand of D as well but I suspect that the Indians might play a pretty good game themselves tonight. These two schools are only about an hour away and Ark State usually plays the Tigers very well. Last year's game saw 146 and the year before that 155. In fact, these two teams have met 5 times on the court and the fewest number of points in either of those games was 143 a few years ago. The Indians have not shot the ball this year very well and the reason why they are 0-2 on the campaign. But they have put up a lot of shots and enough for them to be ranked in the top 20% pacewise of all teams in the land. The liklihood of an easy Memphis win is very good but this team will come to play and they will not stop. I expect at least 120 shots taken tonight and with just reasonable results, this game will fly OVER.
 

husky

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Pure Lock

NBA 9-8 ytd
member play = SIXERS

NCAA 4-8 ytd
member play = BUFFALO
 

husky

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ATS Financial Package

CFB

Over 59 Middle Tenn St/Troy...............3 Units
 

husky

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Brian Duffy Daily Package

We hit our NBA Lock of the Day yesterday with Orlando.

TUESDAY WINNERS:
over 220 Phoenix / Sacramento

That's a lot of points. But our sources in Phoenix say Stoudemire will play. That will help the Suns tremendously! The over is 4-1 in the Suns last 5 vs. the Pacific, 4-1 in their last 5 as a favorite, 4-1 in their last 5 playing on 2 days rest, and 7-3 in their last 10 as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The over is 4-0 in the Kings last 4, 9-1-1 followings a ATS win, 6-1 following a S.U. win, and 19-7-1 in their last 27 playing on 1 days rest. The over is also 4-2 in the last 6 meetings. Suns win 119-106

Denver - 8 over Chicago

The Bulls are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Northwest, 2-6 ATS vs. the Western Conference, 2-8 in their last 10 overall, 1-5 ATS as a road dog, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a dog of 5.0-10.5. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, and 21-6 ATS vs. the NBA Central. Denver is also 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Denver 107, Chicago 93

NHL

Vancouver - 130 over Edmonton

The Canucks are 10-1 in their last 11 as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 12-2 in their last 14 as a road favorite, 4-1 in their last 5 playing on 1 days rest, an 20-7 vs. the Northwest. The Oilers are just 20-42 vs. the Northwest, 18-42 vs. the Western Conference, 14-39 as a dog, 3-13 as a home dog and 1-7 playing on 2 days rest. The Canucks are also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Edmonton, 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the road team is 4-1 in the last 5. Vancouver 4, Edmonton 2

NCAA Men's Basketball

OK St + 3 over Marquette

The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Big East, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following a ATS win. The Golden Eagles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning % over .600 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following a S.U. win. OK State 79, Marquette 73.
 

husky

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INDIAN COWBOY

Play: Raptors/Mavs Over 196.5 (POD)

Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: Raptors/Mavs Over 196.5 (POD) ^^^ A bit surprised with this total here considering that the last few times these 2 teams have played in Dallas, the over has hit with relative ease. As per the side, I think the Raptors coming off a tough loss to Golden State as that is a game they could have easily won if it had not been for a huge run by Golden State in the final quarter, I think they can bounce-back nicely here. Dallas beat Toronto 97-96 on the road the last time these 2 teams have played and the Raptors have covered in this match up the last 3 of 4 games. Besides a game against Philadelphia, the Mavs have scored at least a 100 points at home in each of their games. I would lean over, but occasionally, the Raptors have a way of not showing up on the road such as against the Bucks earlier this season. However, this team is coming off a loss and they are likely to "get-up" to play the Mavs as that is a team that one can measure themselves against just like Memphis did in their last game against Dallas. A lean on the Raps and the over here. ^^^Additional Write-up: I think the Raptors show up big today given their tough loss at home to the Warriors. Sam Mitchell is a fiery coach that does not put up with late collapses and this team is likely to "get-up" for this game. Why? Well, considering they come off the loss and this team has covered 3 of 4 ballgames against the Mavs of recent, I think the Raps are an active dog and put up 95+. Given that the Mavs have no problem scoring over a 100 points at home as they have done it in each of their ballgames at home thus far - even against the Spurs at home who are a defensive team, I think this game hits around 210. Also keep in mind the Mavs did not close the game well against Memphis nor did they shoot free throws well so I expect them to do a better job today. The over is 5-0 following a Raptors ATS loss and the over is 6-1 between these 2 teams in Dallas (credence to the active dog principle).
INDIAN COWBOY: Georgia State vs Florida State Seminoles




Play: Florida State Seminoles -20.5

Comments: INDIAN COWBOY SELECTION: Florida State Seminoles -20.5 ^^^ FSU needs a big win given that they come off 2 frustrating losses away from home against South Florida by a point and Cleveland State by 3 points in overtime. This team did beat UAB by 8 away from home which shows the caliber of this team to hang tough against better ball clubs. However, today they need to blow out Georgia State to get the cover and I have actually seen Georgia State play many times last year. This team lives and dies by the 3 ball and it seems much is the same this year as this team has had a lack of point guard play for quite some time. Georgia State has missed the 4.5 cover and 11 point cover against UAB as this team has lost by 23 and 22 points and now has to expect to fall within 20 points against an FSU team coming home after 2 frustrating losses. I think Georgia State is in a bad spot here as I think FSU is likely to take its frustration out on someone and it is likely State here. I think Georgia Southern is a better ball club than Georgia State is and FSU easily handled that club by 20+ at home. Simply a bad spot for State imo.^^^ Additional write-up: Bottom line here is that FSU needs a big win and they are likely to get it as I have followed Georgia State basketball and this team simply has trouble being competitive on the road. Keep in mind that FSU's road home wins this year include a blowout win over Georgia Southern who is actually considerably better than Georgia State in my preseason rankings and I think game is likely to get ugly as I have FSU winning quite possibly by 30 points. When you are as good as FSU, and having lost your last 2 games by a combined 3-4 points, you are going to want to take that frustration out on someone, anyone. In this case, it will be Georgia State. Seminoles have covered their last 4 home games in front of their fans and Georgia State is 2-5 ATS when playing a team with a winning record on the road.
INDIAN COWBOY: ELON vs GEORGIA




Play: Elon University +17.5

Comments: INDIAN COWBOY SELECTION: Elon University +17.5 ^^^ If you have some galls, you can put some money down on Elon today as the word has been good on this team as they are 2-0 but they have yet to face quality competition until today. The line movement also favors this team but considering that UGA is a jekyl and hyde team can show up one game and simply fail to show up the next, it is tough to wager on this team. Nevertheless, UGA was up by only 6 against Grambling who is an athletic team and Elon is now that far off this year. I think Elon has the talent level to hang with UGA as Elon is a more disciplined team and has a set offense has compared to Grambling, although Grambling has more athleticism. I have UGA winning this game by single digits as Elon did surprisingly well against Virginia Tech losing by simply 5 points away from home. I think Georgia will pull away in this game in the 2nd half but Elon is likely to hang tough given that they have looked impressive early on but only when this team plays the rest of its Southern Conference schedule will we get a true understanding of how good the Phoenix are and frankly, only until UGA gets healthy will we get a good look at how good the Bulldogs are. ^^^ Additional Write-up: Any team that can go on the road and compete against Virginia Tech and lose by 5 points, deserve some recognition. Plus, this team faces a Georgia squad that did not look overly impressive against Grambling and I think the Bulldogs are vulnerable early in the season before they put it together. I think Elon has a group of players that are comfortable playing on the road and although they won't win this game outright, I do have them falling within single digits. The Bulldogs are just 1-5 ATS against non-conference opponents and the Phoenix have covered 5 of their last 6 ballgames.
 

johnnyobmt

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Hey Husky,

Hey man, I hat to beat a dead horse but I was wondering if you have seen any Blueline plays recently? I know that you only post the premium ones but it has been a long time since any of those have been up.

Thanks for all that you do for this forum.
 

husky

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Insider Sports Report

4* New York Pk over Golden St. (NBA)
Range +2 to -2

3* Toronto/Dallas (NBA) OVER 196.5
Range 195 to 198.5

3* L.A. Lakers/Indiana (NBA) OVER 207
Range 205 to 209
 

husky

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EZ Winners

NBA

3 Indiana +2
3 Sac +7'
1 Cleve -6'

CBB

1 Drexel +10
1 St Mary's +3'
 

husky

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Larry Ness' Late-Breaking CBB Tourney Play (22-5 run the last six days!)

3:00 ET Update: Larry's often been referred to as "the ultimate Las Vegas insider" due to his "unmatched" contacts. This 24-year vet is on one of his classic streaks (22-5 the last six days!) and releases his first "Late-Breaking" CBB play this year, in Tuesday's tourney action. It's "not to be missed!"

My Late-Breaking Play is on Marquette at 7:00 ET.

I just don't trust this Okla St team and I went against them with my first CBB play of this season last Wednesday (won with North Texas which won outright as a six-point dog). Oklahoma State (2-1) advanced in the winner's bracket in the Maui Invitational by holding off LSU 83-77 on Monday. Freshman forward James Anderson (23.3-4.3-3.7) had 25 points as the Cowboys built an 18-point halftime lead, then nearly squandered all of it in the second half before two free throws with 16 seconds left sealed the victory. Sutton thought Anderson would replace Curry's scoring from LY and he's been right so far but I still believe the Cowboys will miss their top two rebounders from LY, Boggan (19.0-7.6) and Monds (5.0). Marquette returns all five starters and is basically a perimeter team. Juniors McNeal (16.3-5.3), James (12.0) and Matthews (7.3-4.7) are joined by sophomore Cubillan (10.7) on that perimeter. The 6-9 Fitzgerald and the 6-10 Barro return inside, but the team's best inside player is 6-6 Hayward (12.3-5.7). Tom Crean owns a HUGE coaching edge over Eddie Sutton's "little boy" and the team's perimeter people are too good to keep struggling from behind the arc (just 14-for-59 from 3-point range so far). By the way, the Golden Eagles are shooting 61.9 percent (65-for-105) from inside the arc! Marquette has won 11 consecutive games in November tournaments dating back to the 2004 BCA Classic, a title it won along with the 2005 Great Alaska Shootout and 2006 CBE Classic. Marquette gets win No. 12 in a row tonight, with relative ease! Late-Breaking Play on Marquette.

Good Luck...Larry
 

husky

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JIMMY PRICE NBA
19-9 +11.7 UNITS
LAKERS -1.5
BUCKS +7

JIMMY PRICES CBB SELECTIONS
7-3 +3.6 UNITS
Minny Pk
Iona +16.5
SE Mizzouri St. -1
 
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