Tuesdays SERVICE PLAY THREAD - 11 / 27

[goldengreek]

LARRY NESS




Larry Ness' 20* CBB Blowout of the Month (16-8 CBB run / last 20* covered by 25 points!)
My 20* play is on UTEP at 9:00 ET. The Aggies had a great season LY, winning 25 games, the WAC title and giving Texas a tough time in the first round of the NCAAs. While head caoch Reggie Theus bolted for the NBA (Kings), the Aggies return three starters and lots of depth. Guards Gibson (15.0), Peete (10.2-4.2 APG) and Carter (7.2) form a solid trio. Up front, forwards Hawkins (14.6-8.4) and McKines (8.8-6.0) are paired with centers Passos (9.8-7.7) and Iti (5.3-4.7), who are 6-9 and 7-0 respectively. However, while the team looks good on paper, the Aggies have opened 2-4 (0-5 ATS). Their only wins are over Cal-Davis and Le Moyne-Owen (whatever that is?). They've lost at Ohio by eight, at Duke by 25 and in neurtal site games to Texas (by 15) and West Va (by 14). Meanwhile, UTEP is 3-1, losing only to 15th-ranked Texas A&M, by 81-76 on the road! The 6-5 Jackson (23.3-5.0) is paired with PG Kilgore (12.3-5.3 APG) in the backcourt, aided by freshman Culpepper (9.5). The 6-11 Sampson (7.3-5.4) has two decent forwards alongside, in Watts (6.3-4.5) and Ramalho (4.0-4.5). This is a bitter rivalry (schools are VERY close) and after sweeping New Mex St two years ago, UTEP lost 71-69 at New Mex St and then 68-62 at home LY. The Miners "smell blood" this time around! CBB Blowout of the Month 20* UTEP.




Larry Ness' Superstar Triple Play-NBA (won last two / 5-1 with individual games!)
My three STPS are on the NJ Nets (7:35 ET), the Mil Bucks (8:05 ET) and the Chi Bulls (8:35 ET).

After winning four of five games to start the season, New Jersey dropped six straight (0-5-1 ATS) by an average of 15.1 points. Jason Kidd challenged his teammates during the skid and soon after his comments, the Nets shot a season-high 53.7 percent from the field to end their slide with a 106-101 road victory over Portland on Wednesday. They followed that with a 98-93 victory at Seattle on Friday and a 102-100 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday in the finale of a four-game Western Conference road trip. Jefferson had 27 points in Sunday's win (he leads the team at 25.1 PPG) while Kidd added 15 points and 14 assists (he leads with 8.4 RPG and 10.4 APG), plus Vince Carter came off the bench to score 19. Carter has been used as a reserve in three straight games after missing the final five games of New Jersey's losing streak with a badly sprained right ankle. He could return to the starting lineup Tuesday. Even with Carter still limited, the Nets are shooting 49.8 percent from the field and averaging 102.0 points during their current run. The Nets return home to meet the Grizzlies (4-9), losers of five straight road games (2-3 ATS)) since winning their road opener Nov. 7. Once an excellent defensive team, the Grizzlies are allowing 107.8 PPG this year, the third-worst mark in the league. STP on the NJ Nets.

Milwaukee (7-4) remained perfect at home with a 97-95 victory over Dallas on Saturday and will now be looking to win its first seven games at the Bradley Center since opening 18-0 there in the 1990-91 season. The win over the Mavericks was Milwaukee's fifth straight overall and featured a 35-point fourth quarter to pull out the victory. Michael Redd (leading scorer at 24.5 PPG) had 27 point and he's scored at least 21 points in every game during the five-game run. Mo Williams had his third double-double in the last five games, recording 19 points and 10 assists. The point guard is averaging 15.6 points and 10.0 assists during Milwaukee's winning streak. Philadelphia (3-9) has been in a free fall since starting the season 2-2. The Sixers have lost seven of their past eight and are trying to avoid their second four-game skid of the month. Andre Iguodala's all-around game has been the lone bright spot for Philadelphia. He leads the team in scoring (18.2) and assists (5.0) and also averages 6.8 rebounds. Kyle Korver, the Sixers' second-leading scorer last season, has missed the last four games with a groin strain. Philadelphia is 1-9 SU (3-6-1 ATS) as an underdog TY and is scoring only 89.9 a contest (one of just four teams averaging under 90 points). Meanwhile, the Bucks are just 1-4 on the road where they allow 105.6 PPG, but 6-0 (5-1 ATS) at home, where they allow just 91.6 PPG. STP on the Mil Bucks.

The Bulls just complete another miserable "circus" road trip, going 1-5 SU and ATS. Chicago (2-10) was considered to be one of the top teams in the East after advancing to the conference semifinals last season. Instead, the Bulls have been one of the worst, averaging an NBA-low 86.5 points and shooting a league-worst 38.5 percent from the floor. This game will be the Bulls' first at home since a 101-71 loss to Toronto on Nov 10. They are 1-3 in Chicago after finishing with a conference-best 31-10 mark at home last season. The good news for Chicago is that Luol Deng, averaging 15.3 points, returned to Chicago's lineup on Sunday after missing the previous three games with a sore lower back and had 21 points and nine rebounds. While the Bulls have had little success this season, they have had no problems playing against the Hawks lately. Chicago has not lost to Atlanta since a 116-101 defeat on April 9, 2004, sweeping the last three season series. The Bulls won all four over the Hawks last season, outscoring them by 16.5 points in their two wins at the United Center. The Hawks are wrapping up a three-game road trip with this game and have opened their trip with consecutive wins, after losing their previous 17 away from home. Atlanta is coming off an impressive 94-87 victory over Minnesota on Saturday, as it rallied from a 21-point first-half deficit and from 10 points down in the fourth. The Hawks also came back from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit in their 82-79 win at Miami on Wednesday. They have not completed a perfect three-game trip since April 9-12, 1997 and after two HUGE comeback wins, I see their luck running out here, vs the desperate Bulls. Atlanta, which went just 12-29 on the road last season, has not won three in a row away from home in November since opening the 1997-98 season with four straight road victories. STP on the Chi Bulls.


Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CBB (11-2 run with Insiders since Nov 16 / 7-1 in BKB!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on Florida State at 7:30 ET. Tubby was pretty much run out of Lexington and I'm not so sure why he picked Minnesota? The Gophers return all five starters from LY's team but while that's the good news, it's also the bad news. The not-so-Golden Gophers were 9-22 overall and 3-13 in the Big 10. Minnesota has opened 3-0 this season but hasn't been tested. Three seniors lead the way, in 6-9 center Tollackson (13.7-6.3), 6-9 forward Coleman (11.7-6.0) and guard McKenzie (10.7). The rest of the team (starters and backups), are quite questionable. FSU has missed the NCAAs in each of the last two seasons, amid much controversy. While the Seminoles will miss PF Thornton this year, Leonard Hamilton has plenty of talent. His guard rotation of Swann (16.6), Douglas (12.4) and Rich (10.6-4.7) is excellent. Up front, the 6-9 Echefu (10.6-6.1) will get plenty of help from 6-10 freshman Vaughn (5.4-3.0), 6-9 sophomore Reid (5.0-4.1) and 6-8 junior Breeden (4.9-2.7). FSU lost in OT to Cleveland St and then by one point to USF in a tourney in Daytona Beach (troubling) but then came back with a 30-point win over Georgia State and a 65-51 win at 24th-ranked Florida (Rich had 20 points and 11 rebounds). Tubby's team is NOT ready for primetime just yet (if ever TY?), while Hamilton will want a win here (on national TV) against his high-profile coaching peer! Las Vegas Insider on Florida State

 

[goldengreek]

BURNS


Burns NBA

BULLS (-7 or better)

Game: Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls Game Time: 11/27/2007 8:35:00 PM Prediction: Chicago Bulls Reason: I'm laying the points with CHICAGO. The Hawks have the better record. However, the Bulls are playing at home and I still believe that they're the significantly better team. The Bulls should be happy to be back home and thrilled to be playing their first game against a team from the Southeast Division, as they were 31-15 SU and 28-17-1 (62%) ATS against teams from that division the past two seasons. The Bulls have dominated the Hawks for a lot longer than that though! In fact, they've won 11 straight series meetings, going a highly profitable 9-2 ATS. The most recent meeting here at Chicago resulted in a one-sided 106-81 romp. The Hawks have begun this road trip with wins at Minnesota and Miami. However, this is a tougher venue and the Hawks haven't swept a three game road trip in roughly a decade. The Hawks were 12-29 on the road last season while the Bulls were 31-10 at home. I expect things to return to "normal" with the highly motivated Bulls recording a much-needed one-sided victory. *NBA Blowout GOM

UNDER sonics/lakers (212 or better)

Game: Seattle SuperSonics vs. Los Angeles Lakers Game Time: 11/27/2007 10:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I feel that this total is too high and I'm playing on the Sonics and Lakers to finish UNDER the total. The Sonics obviously don't play the best defense in the league and that's the primary reason for such a big over/under number tonight. However, their games still average "only" 208 points. The Lakers have averaged 206 in their games but a lower 202.6 here in LA. Yes, the Sonics played a high-scoring game against the Spurs in their last game. However, in addition to that helping tonight's over/under line to be a couple of points higher, note that Seattle has already seen the UNDER go a profitable 6-1 this season after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game. The Sonics last road game was also high-scoring. However, they've still seen three of their last five road games finish with less than 200 points. Meanwhile, the Lakers have seen their last four home games all produce 202 combined points or less. The Lakers, currently listed as 11 point favorites, have shown a recent tendency to go "under" the total when listed as large favorites, as the UNDER is 5-1 the last six times the Lakers were favored by greater than eight points. One of those five "unders" came from the most recent meeting between these two teams when they combined for 207 points (total was 210) last April. Look for tonight's game to be lower scoring than expected once again and for the final combined score to stay beneath the generous total. *Western Conf. TOM

 

[goldengreek]

MATT FARGO


Matt Fargo

Duke -8

REASON FOR PICK: ***Wiseguy Game of the Month*** This line jumped out right away. Digging into the numbers and it became even more out of whack. Looking at the power situations shows that this line is completely off and that explained at the end with the situation that backs this game. Both teams come in undefeated but at this point, these are two completely different undefeated teams. The Badgers had to rally from a double-digit deficit to defeat Georgia on Saturday and now they must take the road for the first time this season. This line is likely to go up.

Wisconsin had played no one prior to that game against the Bulldogs and currently its schedule is ranked 337th in the country. It has blown everyone out but that is actually in our favor seeing that it gives us added value based on the point differentials. The Badgers have better rebounding numbers as well as a better assist/turnover ratio than Duke and because of those, Wisconsin would normally be a play but that schedule is too much to look past, as is the schedule Duke has played, which is half of the Badgers.

Duke lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season and it came out this season with a chip on its shoulder and it clearly seems to be a lot better than the underachieving squad of a year ago. The Blue Devils have blown away all three teams at home, including a very good New Mexico St. team and then won three games on a neutral floor to take the Maui Invitational. Duke numbers are right on pace with the Badgers and this is with the much more difficult opposition played.

This is where the line comes into play. It is almost a contrarian line seeing that Duke is favored by single digits because of the way it has won and that is by large margins. The big wins from Wisconsin are keeping it low by playing no one and we?ll take it. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a win by 15 points or more going up against an opponent after three straight wins by 15 points or more. This situation is a perfect 16-0 ATS (100 percent) over the last five years and 24-3 ATS (88.9 percent) since 1997. Blowout city! Play Duke Blue Devils 3 Units

 

[goldengreek]

RAS



RAS:

UCSB -3 over UNLV...1/2 unit

 

[goldengreek]

California Sports 5* GOM CBB
Nov 27, 2007

California Sports NBA: 4* chicago (-5.5) 8:35est
CBB: 5* arkansas little rock (-4.5) 8:00est
3* troy state (+22.5) 8:00est

 

[goldengreek]

Matt Wrobel Sports

4* NBA GOM - Boston (-3.5)






Michael CannonTuesday's Plays...

5 Dime ?
CELTICS

Take the Celtics tonight as the small road chalk over the Cavaliers.

Boston has stormed out of the gates this year with a 10-1 record. They are the only team in the league with three players averaging at least 19 points.

The Cavs rely too much on LeBron James to get by a team that has such balance as Boston does. There?s no question LeBron is great, but bottle him up late and force someone else to beat you and there?s a problem.

The Celtics are outscoring their opposition by an average of 13 points. They have won eight games by at least 10 points and four by 20 or more.

Now, I don?t see them blowing Cleveland out of Quicken Loans Arena, but I do see them controlling this game from start to finish.

Lay the small number as Boston grabs the cash with the road win and cover.



BULLS

Lay the small number with the Bulls tonight over the Hawks.

We?re getting great value with Chicago tonight because of their poor start. They return to the United Center after a six-game road trip and this is the perfect spot for them to shake out of their early season slump.

That?s because their opponent is the Atlanta Hawks, a team the Bulls have owned lately. Chicago hasn?t lost to Atlanta since April 2004. The Bulls have swept the last three season series and last year won all four games over Atlanta, outscoring them by 16.5 points in their two wins at the United Center.

Atlanta has won two straight on the road, but hasn?t won three in a row away from home in November since opening the 1997-98 season with four straight road wins.

Take Chicago as the small home chalk as they grab the home win and cover.



ST JOES

Lay the big number with St. Joeseph?s tonight when they host Ball State.

St. Joe?s holds a big size advantage down low and should easily win the rebounding battle tonight. That will lead to several second-chance points and an opportunity to extend their lead throughout.

Ball State lost at home to previously winless Evansville on Saturday, so I doubt they?ll be ready to jump up in class and compete tonight. They just don?t have the depth to compete with the bigger schools and it?s going to show tonight.

Lay the points as St. Joe?s cruises to an easy 20-point win and cover.

 

[goldengreek]

DR CHAD HOOPS

5 units on UNLV, FLORIDA STATE, and RICE.
3 units on COLORADO.



wunderdog n.b.a.

Game: Boston at Cleveland (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 95 -110



The Celtics continue to play good solid defense, and it is one of the reasons they have been successful early. Cleveland has done a good job against teams like Boston that shoot less than 76 shots a game. They have been 15-3 against the first-half under against these teams, and 21-4 to the first-half under against teams allowing just 91 points per game or less. Boston is also 30-14 the last two years to the first-half under after a road game, and 19-9 to the first-half under as a road favorite.



Game: Atlanta at Chicago (8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 181 -110


Sure the Bulls haven?t been lighting up the scoreboard, but their schedule has had them on the road for eight of their first 12 games. They have also played against 10 of 12 teams with winning records, so we expect the Bulls to be much more productive at home tonight. Teams playing early in the season (November), that are marginally losing teams, those between .400-.490 have played OVER in 27 of the last 34. Chicago has been OVER at an 18-7 rate as a favorite of 3.5-6 points. Atlanta has also played three-straight UNDERS, and they have followed that by going OVER in 12 of 14. We will ride the OVER in this one.



Game: Seattle at Los Angeles Lakers (10:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +11.5


Not a lot to get excited about with the Sonics. They are 2-6 on the road with five of those losses coming by 14 points or more. Lately, the Lakers haven't been too exciting either, as they have now dropped three straight. This isn't the Lakers of old that were winning 50-60 games a year and dominating their home court. The odds makers seem to want you to believe they are. Over the last 2+ years the Lakers have dropped five of their last six games when favored by 10 or more points. You can see they don't get the "double-digit" billing much anymore. The reason is simple, they are not dominating anymore. The Sonics have managed to cover at a 16-5 ATS rate over teams with a winning record. The Lakers don't seem to get too excited playing at home against a team with a losing record as they are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games. This is too many points, and we will ride the Sonics.

 

[gogogo777]

Tom Freese Blue Line Club

Philadelphia at Milwaukee (8:05pm)

Philadelphia is 16-5 ATS when the Total is 180 to 189.5 and they are 19-9 ATS away off one or more straight losses. The Sixers are 17-6 ATS their last 23 trips to Milwaukee. The Bucks are 3-11 ATS their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Milwaukee is 2-5-1 ATS their last 8 home games. Play On PHILADELPHIA +

 

[gogogo777]

double post

 

[gogogo777]

Sports Advisors

NBA


Boston (11-1, 9-3 ATS) at Cleveland (8-6, 6-8 ATS)



LeBron James and the Cavaliers are the latest team facing the daunting task of stopping the juggernaut Celtics when these Eastern Conference squads meet up at Quicken Loans Arena.



Boston has been idle since upending the Bobcats 96-95 on Saturday. Ray Allen hitting the game-winning three-pointer at the buzzer, but it wasn?t enough to cover the nine-point spread. The Celtics have won three in a row since suffering their only loss of the season ? a 104-102 setback at Orlando ? but they?re just 2-3 ATS since beginning the year with six consecutive spread-covers.



Like Boston, Cleveland carries a three-game winning streak into this contest, most recently topping the Pacers 111-106 as a two-point road underdog on Sunday. James finished with 30 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists, his second straight triple-double and fourth of the young season.



The Cavs have alternated ATS wins and losses in their last six games, and the straight-up winner is 7-1 ATS in their last eight contests. At home this year, Cleveland is just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS.



Boston is 4-0 ATS when playing after more than one day of rest.



Cleveland is 7-1 in its last eight meetings with the Celtics, but just 4-3-1 ATS, with Boston covering the number in all three clashes last year, all as an underdog.



The over is 9-5 in Cleveland?s 14 games this year, including 6-2 in the last eight. Also, the Cavs have hurdled the total in eight straight conference games. However, the under is 7-4-1 in Boston?s 12 outings this year and 10-4-1 in its last 15 dating to last season.



ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON




Seattle (2-12, 5-9 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (7-6, 8-5 ATS)


Rookie phenom Kevin Durant plays his first-ever NBA game in Hollywood tonight when he leads the struggling Sonics into the Staples Center to battle the suddenly slumping Lakers.



It?s been a season of streaks thus far for Seattle, which opened with eight straight losses, then won two in a row and has now dropped four straight, including Sunday?s 116-101 home loss to the Spurs as a 10-point underdog. The winner has covered the spread in each of the Sonics? last seven games.



Durant tallied 25 points and pulled down six rebounds in Sunday?s loss to the Spurs. The rookie has scored in double figures in every game and is averaging 18.9 points per contest.



L.A. has followed up a four-game SU and ATS winning streak with four consecutive losses and non-covers. On Sunday, the Lakers hosted the Nets at Staples Center and got outscored 65-51 in the second half, falling 102-100 as a seven-point favorite.



The Lakers took three of four from Seattle last year, but the Sonics were 2-0-2 ATS, with both pushes coming in Los Angeles. Going back to the end of the 2005 season, the Lakers have won six of eight meetings (3-3-2 ATS).



Seattle is just 2-6 SU and ATS on the road, with the winner covering the number in all eight games. Meanwhile, the Lakers had a three-game home winning streak snapped in the loss to the Nets and are now 4-3 at Staples Center (5-2 ATS).



The Sonics are 1-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog this year.



The total has alternated in Seattle?s last five games, with Sunday?s contest against San Antonio easily going over the posted price. Meanwhile, even though its game against New Jersey barely jumped over the total by two points, the under is still 3-1 in L.A.?s last four home games.



The over is 7-2 in the last nine series meetings, including 4-1 in L.A.



ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS

 

[gogogo777]

Matt Wrobel Sports
4* NBA GOM - Boston (-3.5)


did some research on this guy.. seems pretty solid

11-25: U Cle. & Hou (W)
11-25: Buffalo (L)
11-25: San Diego (W)
11-24: Virginia (L)
11-24: Missouri (W)
11-24: Kentucky (L)
11-24: Orlando (W)
11-23: Nebraska (L)
11-22: USC (W)
11-22: Detroit (L)
11-21: Wizards (W)
11-18:Jacksonville (W)
11-18: Buffalo (L)
11-18: Cleveland (P)
11-17: Arkansas (W)
11-17: S. Florida (W)
11-17: Cleve. St. (W)
11-17: Ohio State (L)
11-16: Nevada (W)
11-16: Oklahoma (W)
11-15: Col. State (W)
11-15: Arizona (W)
11-13: California (W)
11-12: Buffalo (W)
11-11: San Diego (W)
11-11: Miami (P)
11-11: N.Y. Giants (L)
11-11: Cleveland (W)
11-10: Kent State (L)
11-10: Maryland (W)
11-10: Michigan (L)
11-9: E. Michigan (L)
11-7: Ohio Bobcats (L)
11-4: Indy. Colts (W)
11-4: Cin. Bengals (L)
11-4: Cle. Browns (W)
11-3: Ohio State (W)
11-3: N. Dame (L)
11-3: Alabama (P)
11-3: Rutgers (L)
11-2: N. Mex. St. (W)
11-1: G. Tech (L)
10-29: G.B. Packers (W)
10-28: N.Y. Jets (L)
10-28: San Diego (W)
10-28: Cle. Browns (W)
10-27: Col. Rocks (L)
10-27: Ohio State (W)
10-27: Louisville (L)
10-27: USC (L)
10-26: Bos. Coll. (W)
10-26: Rocks +1.5 (W)
10-21: Philadelphia (L)
10-21: Miami (L)
10-20: Washington (L)
10-20: Alabama (W)
10-20: UNLV (L)
10-18: Cle. Indians (L)
10-18: Rutgers (W)
10-15: Atl. Falcons (L)
10-15: Cle. Indians (W)
10-14: G.B. Packers (P)
10-14: N.O. Saints (W)
10-14: Cle. Browns (W)
10-13: Iowa (W)
10-13: Louisville (W)
10-13: Oklahoma (L)
10-12: Cle. Indians (L)
10-12: San Jose (W)
10-11: Arz. D'Backs (L)
10-8: Cle. Indians (W)
10-7: N.O. Saints (L)
10-7: Cle. Browns (P)
10-7: G.B. Packers (L)
10-6: Zona D'Backs (W)
10-6: UNLV (L)
10-6: Purdue (L)
10-6: Illinois (W)
10-5: Cle. Indians (W)
10-4: Cle. Indians (W)
10-3: Col & Phil O9 (L)
10-3: Chicago Cubs (P)
10-2: Col. Rockies (W)
10-1: N.Y. Giants (W)
10-1: N.Y.M. & Phil (L)
10-1: Chic. Bears (L)
10-1: Cle Browns (W)

 

[gogogo777]

Brandon Lang
TUESDAY

5 DIME
Celtics
Memphis
Hawks

 

[gogogo777]

California Sports

NBA:
4* chicago (-5.5) 8:35est

CBB:
5* GOM arkansas little rock (-4.5) 8:00est
3* troy state (+22.5) 8:00est

 

[the duke]

WAYNE ROOT

Chairman - Bulls
Millionaire - UNLV
Money Maker - Florida St

 

[the duke]

Greg Shaker

CBB Total
double-dime bet Buffalo / Canisius Over 142.5

NCAAB: Canisius Griffins at Buffalo Bulls - Over 142.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES
Game Date: 11/27/2007
Note: Let me first say that these are two very bad basketball teams taking the court tonight but they both do like to move the ball up and down the court and perhaps one reason why the Griffins are 8-1 OVER their last 9 games played. Canisius is not very adepth at shooting the ball so far this year but there is reason to believe that they will have success tonight against a Buffalo team that gives up a lot of easy baskets. The Bulls push the ball about as good as anyone, already are #87 in the land, and that ranking will more than likely go upward as this year progesses. In doing so, they leave the backdoor open for lot's of freebies. The Griffins have played some good D teams this year and the reason for their low numbers. They have been severely outsized in most games played but they will be less so in this contest. Bulls games have averaged 141 this year and more so on their homecourt and the teams they have played are scoring more than they do overall. That will probably not be the case tonight as they should grab the lead. That will mean that the visitors will have to play their style of play more than liekly. My one concern in this contest is extremely poor free throw shooting by both squads, both hitting right near the 50% mark. That is pathetic but easy baskets along the way should do us enough here. Buffalo has played the likes of Pitt, South Florida, and UConn. That has held their shooting percentages down. They will have a marvalous chance tonight to improve those and they should in a big way. In their only game this year when they were supposed to win, we saw 171 points scored and we saw 122 shots taken. That many shots tonight will give us what we want and I think we will see that many. OVER is 24-7 in Buffalo last 31 games as a favorite. OVER is 23-8-1 the last 32 home contests. We should see 150+ tonight..




CBB Total
double-dime bet Duke / Wisconsin Over 134.5 BetUS

NCAAB: Wisconsin Badgers at Duke Blue Devils - Over 134.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES
Game Date: 11/27/2007
Note: This is not the Duke team we have become accustomed to in recent years as they have the talent to push the ball and have this year much more so than the past. It is a new style of play that has given them the #49 most uptempo ranking in the land. We are seeing anywhere from 15 to 20 more shots in Duke played games this year due to that and they do have the offenssive efficiency that put them in the top 15% as well. While the Badgers have been known for their D over many years, they are not going to be playing a team tonight that they can handle. In addition Wisconsin is also throwing more shots toward the net this year and have attempted at least 58 per contest everytime of the court. Wisconson has ben smothering opponents this year allowing just 34% shooting but this uptempo attack by the Devils is going to give them some problems. Duke has already shown another Big 10 Team, Illinois, what they think about full court pressure and the Ilini are no slouch to playing good D. While we rarely see a Badger game put at such a high Total Level as this one, we also rarely see them play a team like Duke. Both teams shoot the ball very well, both make free thows very well and that is going to be a huge benefit down the stretch. In my best estimation, this line is about 10 points less than it should be so play it at any number.

 

[the duke]

Charlies Sports

cbb. georgia tech+11 (500* )

cbb. virginia-15' (30*)

cbb. minnesota+8 (20*)

nba. seattle @ lakers over 216 (20*)

nba. new jersey-6 (10*)

nba. chicago-5 (10*) free

 

[the duke]

ASA

NHL

11/27/2007

6:30:00 PM Montreal Canadiens(-105) 0
over TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

ASA 3* Montreal Canadiens $ line @ Toronto

Both Montreal and Toronto are coming off of disapponting stretches of play. There is no doubt in our minds as to which team is better suited to bounce back tonight and we get line value too since that team, Montreal, is on the road in this match-up. Montreal has now suffered consecutive regulation losses for the first time this season. The Habs have been solid on the road this season. After losing both ends of a home and home set against the Sabres, including a shutout, the Canadiens are eager to take to the ice tonight. Toronto has struggled on home ice this season and there are no signs of that changing anytime soon. The Leafs goaltending and defense has been an issue all season long. Adding insult to injury, Toronto's once surging offense has now slowed down. Amazingly, after all the early season explosions, the Leafs have now gone 12 straight games scoring 3 goals or less. The sluggish Leafs will once again be outworked tonight as the Canadiens win for the second straight time at the Air Canada Centre



NCAA BB

11/27/2007
Northern Iowa Panthers(-1)
over IOWA STATE CYCLONES

2* (Top Play) Northern Iowa Panthers (-) @ Iowa

State @ 8 ET - The Panthers are coming off of an upset loss at South Dakota State in their most recent game. After starting the season a perfect 4-0 there is no doubt that Northern Iowa will be looking to bounce back after losing to the Jackrabbits. The key in tonight's match-up is that even though Iowa State is also looking to bounce back off of a loss, it is Northern Iowa that clearly is playing better basketball as a unit so far this season. The fact that the Panthers seem a step ahead of the Cyclones so far this season should come as no surprise. Northern Iowa has not had the personnel issues that Iowa State has had early this season. Also, the Panthers got a jump start on the season thanks to a summer tournament in Thailand that allowed some extra cohesiveness to develop among the players. The Panthers will also have an edge in the frontcourt in this one. Not only does Northern Iowa have good size in the paint, they know how to use it. They are gritty, hard-working rebounders and a lack of rebounding is part of what cost Iowa State in their most recent loss, at home versus Minnesota! As for the Panthers, they have three players all averaging over 8 rebounds a game. As for the Cyclones, they have one. Iowa State does have a talented forward in Craig Brackins but he is often found focusing too much on his offense and not enough on defense and rebounding. The lapses in defense and rebounding actually carry over to much of the Iowa State roster. This is why, after defeating two weak foes to start the season, the Cyclones have lost their last two games as they stepped up in competition. The losses to Bradley and Minnesota came by a combined 19 points and another loss is on tap tonight as the Cyclones are outclassed and outworked by a hungrier instate foe. Play Northern Iowa minus the points as a Top Play selection.

 

[gogogo777]

WILL SYKE'S COMPLIMENTARY PLAY FOR TUESDAY

MAJOR TRENDS
Boston is 3-0 after 3 days rest.
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS at home TY.

COUNTER TRENDS
Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, BUT Celtics are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game


Cavaliers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5, BUT Celtics are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite.

FINAL THOUGHTS: LeBron James has been very impressive with back to back triple doubles. In all honesty, you just have to go with the better team here. With out Verajao the Cav's are just not the same, and James has said it before, "We're definitely worst than last year" And we all can see that the C's are 'Definitely' better this year. With Ray Allen questionable for rolling his ankle, just gives the Celtics a little more value here, but just give it a little time, the line will easily jump to -4. Allen rested his ankle for the whole Monday so he should be ready to go. With the Celtics ranked 1st in defense for points scored, they should be able to shut down the Cavs even if they're playing on the road, unless, LJ pulls another triple double out his a** (which I HIGHLY doubt). With James carrying the team on his shoulders, if he struggles the whole team struggles. I just don't see Pavlovic contributing another 22 points when he only averages 7ppg or Gooden putting up 23 points when he only averages 14ppg. The Cavs need a near perfect game to get by this Celtics team, or the C's not playing defense, turning the ball over, and limiting the scoring of the 'Boston Three Party' (which almost seems impossible). Once again the numbers show it and the Cav's spell 'drought'. So don't follow the Vegas and the home dog with James being so called unstoppable, you'll just get caught being psyched, the solution is.....stick with Syke, and don't be psyched.

Boston Celtics -3.5

COMPLIMENTARY PLAYS ARE NOW 11-4

 

[to1]

Wolkosky Milan

280-220-13 last ninety four days
1-4 Yesterday

Today:

10* BOSTON -3?
10* CHICAGO -5
10* SEATTLE +11?

 

[gogogo777]

Big Al:

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the Charlotte Bobcats. These two Southeast Division rivals come into tonight's game off losses: Miami fell 120-99 to Orlando, and Charlotte lost 96-95 to the Celtics. Although Miami was blown out, there was a silver lining as Dwayne Wade scored a season-high 32 points, with six assists and six rebounds, in easily his best performance since returning from off-season surgery. The Heat have dropped their last four meetings with Charlotte, but Wade missed both meetings this season, and the two wins from last season happened to be Wade's first two games back (after missing 23 games from February 21 until April 6 due to a separated shoulder). In those two games vs. Charlotte last April, Wade's minutes were limited to slightly less than half of the game, and he admittedly was playing at half-speed. But his first step is back now, and he's scored over 30 points in back to back games (many on aggressive drives to the hoop). Look for a blowout win by the Heat tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my College Hoops TV Game of the Month tonight.

At 9:00 pm, our TV Game of the Month is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Wisconsin. The Badgers are off to their best start (5-0) since the 1996-97 season, but all five wins came at home. And Wisconsin has a huge dichotomy between its home and road performance under coach Bo Ryan. Since he took over the Wisky program at the start of the 2001-02 season, his troops are a gaudy 96-5 in Madison, but a comparatively awful 31-36 on the road. And Wisconsin is also 0-4 on the road in the Big 10/ACC Challenge. Tonight's game will be a tough one to stop that losing streak, as Duke is the only team to not lose a game in this event, going 8-0. And Mike Krzyzewski's men have also won 54 straight non-conference home games! Wisconsin's 68-49 home win over Georgia Saturday is a bit deceptive if one just looks at the final score. The Badgers actually trailed in that game 43-37 in the 2nd half, but ended the game on a 31-6 run. Admittedly, Wisconsin has a strong defense, but I'm not yet sold on its offense, especially after losing both its top scorer from last season (Alando Tucker) and its point guard (Kammron Taylor). Finally, Duke falls into the same momentum system we used on Saturday to win with Creighton over Nebraska. That angle is now 54-15 ATS since 1990, and plays on certain single-digit, non-conference home favorites off a win. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie. And don't miss my NBA Winner tonight.