Tuesdays Service Plays 7/22/08

[the duke]

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY Detroit -119 over KANSAS CITY

The Tigers are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 18-5 in Rogers' last 23 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, while the 9-24 in their last 33 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 0-8 in Davies' last 8 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. After starting the season with a 4-4 mark and a 6.66 ERA, Kenny Rogers has come back to go 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA in his last 10 starts, including a 2-1 mark with a 2.88 ERA in his last 5 road starts. Kenny is also 13-9 with a 4.05 ERA since 1997 vs the Royals. It has been the opposite for Kyle Davies, as he started out 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his first 4 starts of the year, but since then he has gone 0-1 with a 6.03 ERA in his last 5 starts. Kyle is 1-1 with a 4.60 ERA at home, allowing teams a .388 OBP, while posting a 1.72 WHIP. Way too many baseruners to give this hot hitting Detroit team. The Tigers come in hitting .300 and scoring 8.7 rpg in their last 10 games, plus they have put up 8.8 rpg since the break and they hit .290 and score 5.5 rpg during their night games this year. That is one hot offense. The Royals offense has been better of late, putting up 5.1 rpg in their last 8, but this team still averages just 4.3 rpg at home and 4.1 rpg within the division. Detroit clearly has the pitching and offensive edges in this one, plus they have gone 16-6 in the last 22 meetings at KC and KC is 4-13 in game 2 of a series off a loss. The Royals took the 1st 6 in this series but that was when the Tigers sucked and the Royals were surprisingly good, now things are different and the Tigers showed how much better than the Royals they are with a big 19-4 win last night. It won't be that easy tonight but they will still pick up a nice win and continue their climb back.

 

[the duke]

ANDRE GOMES

PHOENIX MERCURY at HOUSTON COMETS

One of the tasks of handicapping is to find the value in the lines offered by the oddmakers, wait for the movement of the public money and if the movement is opposite to the line we think it has value, that's great as we have an even higher opportunity. Obviously that we still need to wait for the game to be played, but that's not part of my competence. I think this game will be one of these cases. The team of Phoenix comes to Houston to play the Comets in a really important game for both teams, as both are 11-12 right now and they are trying to reach the playoffs.

These two teams have faced each other at Phoenix, with the Mercury winning, which means if they win again, they will get the upperhand over Houston, in a case of a tie in the record of these two teams at the end of the regular season. The totals line is currently at 177,5 points having started at 176, but a movement took it higher. It's important to say that this movement was originated by two factors: the team of Phoenix has been on-fire offensively in their last matches. They come from 4 overs in a row, where they scoring average is 98.3 ppg and the whole game with an unbelievable 192.7 ppg! Besides that these two teams have faced each other earlier this month and the game ended with a result of 99-94 (193 points).

These are the main motives why the line has went to 177,5 points, however consistence is something there isn't in this league and teams sooner or later start missing, as today's game won't be played in the same way as the previous match between these two teams was played. Phoenix has two faces this season, one on home games and the other one on away games. At home the team is 8-3 Over, but on the road they are 8-4 Under! This fact shows how the team can't play on the road at the high pace they play at home. This is more evident after a win, as they are 7-3 Under in the following game.

Houston comes from a very important win over the Sparks, where a very powerful defense was capable of stop Parker, allowing the Sparks to score just 65 points in the regular time. In this game, Houston is a small favorite and they are 4-0 Under in this type of conditions this season. In the game played at Phoenix, it's important to say that the game ended 99-94, with Houston shooting 52.8% FG and 8-16 3pts and still losing the game. This was clearly a warning sign for the Comets that if they play again today at a very high pace, they will most likely losing again against the Comets. Houston is 11-3 Under in home games revenging a same season loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons and Phoenix confirms the inconsistence of the WNBA teams, as they are 8-2 Under in road games after scoring 80 points or more this season.

I expect this game to have a lot of points, but not enough to pass the 177,5 mark. In my predictions I expect a winning team to score 85-90 points, while the losing team staying in the low 80's. Take the under in here.

PLAY 1* UNIT ON UNDER 177.5 POINTS

 

[the duke]

Mr A

Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays

The A's are struggling, dropping six straight. They are currently lifeless offensively. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has won nine of their last 11 games at home and six of the last seven against Oakland.

Oakland's Dallas Braden (1-0, 4.80) pitched in nine games this season, with a 4.80 ERA over 15 innings. The left-hander allowed five runs over 4 1/3 innings in a 5-3 loss in his only career start versus the Rays on April 29, 2007.

Tampa Bay's Andy Sonnanstine (10-4, 4.58 ERA) is 4-0 with a 3.15 ERA in his last seven starts and the Rays have won the right-hander's last 4 at home.

Take Tampa Bay to win their fifth straight at Tropicana Field against Oakland.

Tampa Bay Rays -160



JB's COMPUTER PICKS

New York Yankees -130

Tampa Bay Rays -160

St. Louis Cardinals -140 * * *

BEST BET ***


Gina

Tuesday, July 22, 2008 8:15 p.m. est.
Milwaukee Brewers (56-43) at St. Louis Cardinals (57-44)

(R) Jeff Suppan (5-6, 4.71 ERA) vs. (R) Kyle Lohse (12-2, 3.35)

The Cardinals have lost five of the last six versus the Brewers, but have won five of its last 7 against them at home and will have Kyle Lohse on the hill. The right-hander s 3-3 with a 5.50 ERA in ten career appearances (9-starts) versus the Brewers and the Cardinals have won 11 of Lohse's last 12 starts, 6-0 in his last 6 at home. Milwaukee counters with Jeff Suppan. The right-hander has pitched well against St. Louis, 6-2 in 10 career starts against the Cardinals, but is 1-1 with a huge 9.64 ERA in his last three starts. Milwaukee has lost five of Suppan's last 7 starts away from home.

Go with the Cardinals with Kyle Lohse at the controls. Lohse has pitched impressively, 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts.

St. Louis Cardinals - 140

 

[the duke]

Scott Ferrall


ANGELS -200 over Cleveland--the Angels won't let this crappy team puch them around

Oakland +150 over Tampa--It just looks too easy to bet on Sonnanstine

Baltimore -105 over Toronto--Olson over Marcum at Camden

MINNESOTA +105 over New York--Slowey can win this one because Rasner loses every time out now

ARIZONA -110 over Chi Cubs--Marquis stumbles against Owings, who's been struggling himself of late. The D'Backs have to get something going or their season will start collapsing

San Fran -120 over Washington--I've got to take 4-12 Zito over 1-6 Bergmann. The Giants have sucked ass lately (1-9 going in to Mon ngt) but it's got to end sometime--how about here !

 

[the duke]

Vegas Experts

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds

San Diego has really been struggling lately, but they snapped a six-game losing skid last night in the series opener and some pitchers just own some teams. The pitcher in question here would be Padres ace Jake Peavy and the team, Cincinnati, as Peavy owns a perfect 8-0 TSR lifetime vs. the Reds. After BB outings of scoreless ball, Peavy had an "off night" his last time out, but we look for him to rebound here.

Play on: San Diego

 

[the duke]

BEN BURNS

Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Chicago White Sox

This price is a bit steep to qualify as one of guaranteed plays. All the same, I believe that the White Sox will have a significant advantage and that they offer solid value at this price. Mendoza has made three road starts and the Rangers lost all three of them. He has a terrible 9.64 ERA and 2.141 WHIP in those games, averaging a mere 3 1/3 innings per outing.

Conversely, Beurhle has averaged nearly seven innings per start in his nine home outings with the White Sox winning six of them. That includes a 5-1 mark his last six starts here. Despite a slow start, the veteran southpaw has a solid 3.37 ERA and 1.206 WHIP here for the season. He'll face a Texas team which is just 11-19 (-6.6) against left-handers, averaging 4.4 runs per game. Beurhle is 9-3 with a 2.75 ERA against the Rangers, most recently tossing a no-hitter (6-0 Chisox win) against them last spring. His team badly needs another big performance and I expect Beurhle to come through for them once again. Consider a play on CHICAGO

 

[the duke]

Charlies Sports

500* Washington @ giants under 8' runs

30* Boston-135

20* Yankees-130

20* St Louis-140

10* Toronto+100

10* Cincinnati-105 free play

 

[MLBKING]

Insider Sports Report

St. Louis -135 over Milwaukee (MLB)

 

[MLBKING]

ARTHUR RALPH

Chi White SOX

 

[MLBKING]

THE VEGAS STEAMLINE

DETROIT/KANSAS CITY UNDER the total of 10 runs

 

[MLBKING]

ROCCO SPACAMURO

50 * Twins +125

 

[MLBKING]

John (Sully) Sullivan

Tuesday Best Bet - Tampa Bay Rays

 

[MLBKING]

COBRA 1500

Los Angeles-A (-200)
Boston (-165)
Pittsburgh (+1.5) (-220)
Milwaukee (+1.5) (-170)
Chicago-N (+1.5) (-220)
Minnesota (+1.5) (-210)
New York-N (-187)
Cincinnati (+1.5) (-165)

 

[MLBKING]

Nostradamus

MLB-Minnesota +125
MLB-Philadelphia +160
MLB-White Sox -170
MLB-Tex/Sox Over 9.5 -110
MLB-Kansas City +110
MLB-Det/Kc Under 10 +110
MLB-LA/Col Under 10.5 -115
MLB-Angels -185
MLB-Seattle +145
MLB-San Francisco -120

WNBA-Seattle +6.5
WNBA-Seat/Minn Under 149
WNBA-Los Angelos +6
WNBA-Indiana +1.5
WNBA-Phoenix +3.5

 

[MLBKING]

Rocketman


FREE PLAY TUESDAY

San Diego @ Cincinnati 7:10 PM EST

Play On: 1* San Diego -115 (Peavy/Cueto) Listed

Cincinnati is 3-11 this year when playing on Tuesday. Cincinnati is scoring only 4.1 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Jake Peavy has a 2.66 ERA overall this year and is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA his last 3 starts. Cueto has a 6.16 ERA his last 3 starts. San Diego is 5-2 at Cincinnati the last 3 years. Peavy is 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA overall vs Cincinnati since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

 

[MLBKING]

KELSO

high rollers baseball club 10 unit - yankees

 

[MLBKING]

Dwayne Bryant

9:05 PM ET
MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw) at Colorado Rockies (Jimenez)
Colorado Rockies (Listed Pitchers) -138

The Dodgers exploded for 16 runs last night in winning the series opener last night, 16-10. Runs will be much harder to come by tonight against Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez. In 10 home starts this season, Jimenez owns a 2.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .295 OOBP. Jimenez allowed just 5 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings (3.65 ERA) in his two career starts vs. LA at Coors Field; both were Colorado wins last season.
LA's Clayton Kershaw has a decent ERA on the season and on the road (4.34), bit his WHIP (1.66) and OOBP (.373) are high. That's because Kershaw has walked 12 batters in just 18 2/3 road innings, which is right on par with his overall ratio. None of Kershaw's four road starts have been Quality Starts, but 7 of Jimenez's 10 home starts have been. Kershaw has also struggled under the lights, posting a 5.95 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and .382 OOBP in his four starts at night.
LA is batting .253 (.319 OBP) and scoring 4.35 runs per game on the road vs. righty starters. Colorado is batting .315 (.389 OBP) and scoring 7 runs per game at home vs. lefty starters. The Dodgers may be hitting well lately (.293 BA, .365 OBP, 6.75 RPG in their last 5 vs. righty starters), but the Rockies have been even hotter (.344 BA, .392 OBP, 9.14 RPG vs. lefty starters).
Take Colorado/Jimenez over LA/Kershaw.

 

[MLBKING]

Investment Playmakers 20* Selection - TWINS

 

[the duke]

Marco D'Angelo

TRIPLE DIME MASSACRE PLAY
RARE TRIPLE DIME PLAY!!
$25.00
The Country's Big Play Expert is stepping out with one of his Famous Massacre Plays in fact this Play is a Rare Triple Dime Play. Marco has made a Major Wager on this Game. For the Baseball Season Marco has netted his clients a Net Profit of 14.65 Units. Marco expects this team to Win by 3 runs or more that's how strong he feels this Game is. Get MARCO'S TRIPLE DIME MASSACRE PLAY for just $20

Triple-Dime bet

Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+110)

Analysis: OK I know I took one on the chin last night with the White Sox but the situation screams for me to pull the trigger once again tonight. Texas struggles against Lefties as they are only 11-19 on the year. More importantly they only average 4.4 runs per game vs lefties where as they average 5.5 overall so clearly they struggle against the southpaws. If that wasn't enough Texas sends Luis Mendoza to the mound and lets just say the Mendoza Line has been pretty high. In 6 starts his ERA is 8.31 on the road it's 9.64. Expect The White Sox to tee off on Mendoza tonight. TAKE THE WHITE SOX (-1.5 RUNS) as MARCO'S TRIPLE DIME MASSACRE PLAY and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.

 

[the duke]

Ron Raymond

5* MLB BEST BET WINNER
$25.00

Capper Ron Raymond has released his 5* MLB BEST BET WINNER for Tuesday, July 22nd. Ron backs up this selection with a nice 66% winning system. Ron wins or you don't pay.

Boston/Seattle Under 8.5 -115