The Parlay King
TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS -1.5 + 125
DETRIOT TIGERS -1.5 + 140
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -1.5 + 175
TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS -1.5 + 125
DETRIOT TIGERS -1.5 + 140
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -1.5 + 175
Tuesdays Service Plays 7/22/08
- Thread starter the duke
- Start date
Robert Ferringo
5-Unit Play. Take #910 St. Louis (-135) over Milwaukee (8 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
I do not think that Jeff Suppan is OK and that is kind of at the crux of this play. Suppan is making his first start since a stint on the 15-day disabled list. However, he says that he's been pitching through pain in his shoulder since May. Who is to say if he's OK? St. Louis should be all over him regardless, seeing as the former Cardinals starter has no secrets when pitching against his former team. Further, Milwaukee won Game 1 and has C.C. and Sheets sitting in the kicker. They're in a great spot. And St. Louis knows they are in a rough one, putting all of the onus on getting this game tonight. This one is huge, and I think they will pull out all of the stops. The Brewers, on the other hand, may be more inclined to ease up, set their bullpen for the next two games, and try to walk out of St. Louis with a 3-1 series win. Further, the Brewers, a notoriously poor road team, has won four straight away from home. Teams playing in their fifth road game during such a streak this year are just 5-10. Kyle Lohse has been an ace for much of the year and has been dynamite at home (6-1, 2.37 ERA), while Suppan is just 3-5 with a 6.04 road ERA on the season. St. Louis is 11-1 in Lohse's last 12 starts and 5-2 in the last seven at home against Milwaukee. I think they bounceback nicely and we collect on a small price.
3-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 9.5 Minnesota at New York Yankees (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
2-Unit Play. Take #917 Minnesota (+120) over New York Yankees (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
Still working the Twins in this series and looking for a lot o' runs today. We have Tim McClelland behind the dish and he has a notoriously small zone. Mix in the fact that neither one of these arms are exactly lockdown candidates and we should be in business. The Twins have been an 'over' machine and they always swing better against righties, since most of Minny's power comes from the left-hand side. Darrell Rasner is a nibbler, and if McClelland isn't giving him the corners then he'll be in trouble. The Yankees seem to have their heads (and bats) out of their asses, so look for at least a 4-spot from them as well.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #903 Philadelphia (+1.5, -145) over New York Mets (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
1-Unit Play. Take #903 Philadelphia (+155) over New York Mets (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
I wish I had a nickel for every time the Mets let down their fans in a situation just like this. They are playing at home. They have a ton of momentum. First place is on the line. They have their ace on the hill and have a severe pitching mismatch. Their rival, the Phillies, have lost two of three in Florida before coming to Shea. It's after an off day, which has been money for the Mets over the last three years. Everything - I mean everything - sets up for the Mets. And that's the problem. It's too perfect. We're getting good odds on a Philly team that has owned New York over the last couple years. And this is the perfect situation where everyone expects the Mets to sweep into first place. Well, I know better. Look for seven shutout from Johan and then a Mets bullpen meltdown to give the Phillies the win.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #929 Boston (-160) over Seattle (10 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
The Red Sox know knuckleballs and, even though R.A. Dickey has had some nice outings and has a generous ump behind the plate, I think that Boston gets all over him today. The Sox are patient and they are a veteran hitting team. The knuckleball is not going to phase them. On the flip side, Dice-K just wins when he takes the hill for Beantown. They are 19-7 in his last 26 starts and 10-1 in his starts against a team with a losing record.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #922 Tampa Bay (-150) over Oakland (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
Note: If you haven't already made this play, please back it down to a 1-Unit selection.
I like the Rays - if they are getting -160 or less at home they are almost an automatic pick - but the number is dropping more than it should. It's a solid situation with a great home team facing what looks like a languid Oakland crew. But bump it down to a 1-Unit pick.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #924 Chicago White Sox (-165) over Texas (8 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
1-Unit Play. Take #924 Chicago White Sox (-1.5, +120) over Texas (8 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
Mark Buehrle has slowly but surely put together a nice little season and I think he's going to have the Rangers on their toes today. Texas has struggled a bit against lefties, going just 5-11 against southpaws overall recently and 16-35 against lefties on the road over the last couple years. The White Sox took a gut shot on Monday but I see them rallying back nicely. They feel the heat in their division and Ozzie will have them focused and ready to tool on that Rangers bullpen.
1-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Angels (-1.5, +110) over Cleveland (10 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
Matt Ginter has a career ERA of nearly 9.00 against the Angels and Jared Weaver is always on his game in front of the home faithful. The Angels had a letdown yesterday after their big sweep over Boston, but I expect them to get it straight today and get all over the Indians. This play should rate much higher given the system, situation, and pitching mismatch. However, the Indians are playing well and we're just playing the numbers and looking for a small cash.
1-Unit Play. Take #913 Chicago Cubs (+100) over Arizona (9 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
Cubs aren't going to get swept in the desert since they are the better team than the D-Backs. I ignored my system yesterday and went with Chicago, like a fool, but we're going to get some of that cheddar back behind Jason Marquis. He's been very, very good to us this year and I think he'll come through again today over a spot starters. I love Petit. But if he can't go seven innings that's going to get us into that weak D-Backs pen.
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 9.5 Pittsburgh at Houston (8 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
Just another stellar pitching matchup in Houston, with lefty Paul Maholm (1-5, 5.10 ERA) on the hill for the Pirates and being countered by the immortal Jack Cassel (6.28 ERA anywhere). We have Jim Reynolds behind the dish and the 'over' is 14-4 in his 18 games this year. He doesn't have an overly tight zone, but it should be enough for two bad starters and two weak bullpens to get 'over'.
5-Unit Play. Take #910 St. Louis (-135) over Milwaukee (8 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
I do not think that Jeff Suppan is OK and that is kind of at the crux of this play. Suppan is making his first start since a stint on the 15-day disabled list. However, he says that he's been pitching through pain in his shoulder since May. Who is to say if he's OK? St. Louis should be all over him regardless, seeing as the former Cardinals starter has no secrets when pitching against his former team. Further, Milwaukee won Game 1 and has C.C. and Sheets sitting in the kicker. They're in a great spot. And St. Louis knows they are in a rough one, putting all of the onus on getting this game tonight. This one is huge, and I think they will pull out all of the stops. The Brewers, on the other hand, may be more inclined to ease up, set their bullpen for the next two games, and try to walk out of St. Louis with a 3-1 series win. Further, the Brewers, a notoriously poor road team, has won four straight away from home. Teams playing in their fifth road game during such a streak this year are just 5-10. Kyle Lohse has been an ace for much of the year and has been dynamite at home (6-1, 2.37 ERA), while Suppan is just 3-5 with a 6.04 road ERA on the season. St. Louis is 11-1 in Lohse's last 12 starts and 5-2 in the last seven at home against Milwaukee. I think they bounceback nicely and we collect on a small price.
3-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 9.5 Minnesota at New York Yankees (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
2-Unit Play. Take #917 Minnesota (+120) over New York Yankees (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
Still working the Twins in this series and looking for a lot o' runs today. We have Tim McClelland behind the dish and he has a notoriously small zone. Mix in the fact that neither one of these arms are exactly lockdown candidates and we should be in business. The Twins have been an 'over' machine and they always swing better against righties, since most of Minny's power comes from the left-hand side. Darrell Rasner is a nibbler, and if McClelland isn't giving him the corners then he'll be in trouble. The Yankees seem to have their heads (and bats) out of their asses, so look for at least a 4-spot from them as well.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #903 Philadelphia (+1.5, -145) over New York Mets (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
1-Unit Play. Take #903 Philadelphia (+155) over New York Mets (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
I wish I had a nickel for every time the Mets let down their fans in a situation just like this. They are playing at home. They have a ton of momentum. First place is on the line. They have their ace on the hill and have a severe pitching mismatch. Their rival, the Phillies, have lost two of three in Florida before coming to Shea. It's after an off day, which has been money for the Mets over the last three years. Everything - I mean everything - sets up for the Mets. And that's the problem. It's too perfect. We're getting good odds on a Philly team that has owned New York over the last couple years. And this is the perfect situation where everyone expects the Mets to sweep into first place. Well, I know better. Look for seven shutout from Johan and then a Mets bullpen meltdown to give the Phillies the win.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #929 Boston (-160) over Seattle (10 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
The Red Sox know knuckleballs and, even though R.A. Dickey has had some nice outings and has a generous ump behind the plate, I think that Boston gets all over him today. The Sox are patient and they are a veteran hitting team. The knuckleball is not going to phase them. On the flip side, Dice-K just wins when he takes the hill for Beantown. They are 19-7 in his last 26 starts and 10-1 in his starts against a team with a losing record.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #922 Tampa Bay (-150) over Oakland (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
Note: If you haven't already made this play, please back it down to a 1-Unit selection.
I like the Rays - if they are getting -160 or less at home they are almost an automatic pick - but the number is dropping more than it should. It's a solid situation with a great home team facing what looks like a languid Oakland crew. But bump it down to a 1-Unit pick.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #924 Chicago White Sox (-165) over Texas (8 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
1-Unit Play. Take #924 Chicago White Sox (-1.5, +120) over Texas (8 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
Mark Buehrle has slowly but surely put together a nice little season and I think he's going to have the Rangers on their toes today. Texas has struggled a bit against lefties, going just 5-11 against southpaws overall recently and 16-35 against lefties on the road over the last couple years. The White Sox took a gut shot on Monday but I see them rallying back nicely. They feel the heat in their division and Ozzie will have them focused and ready to tool on that Rangers bullpen.
1-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Angels (-1.5, +110) over Cleveland (10 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
Matt Ginter has a career ERA of nearly 9.00 against the Angels and Jared Weaver is always on his game in front of the home faithful. The Angels had a letdown yesterday after their big sweep over Boston, but I expect them to get it straight today and get all over the Indians. This play should rate much higher given the system, situation, and pitching mismatch. However, the Indians are playing well and we're just playing the numbers and looking for a small cash.
1-Unit Play. Take #913 Chicago Cubs (+100) over Arizona (9 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
Cubs aren't going to get swept in the desert since they are the better team than the D-Backs. I ignored my system yesterday and went with Chicago, like a fool, but we're going to get some of that cheddar back behind Jason Marquis. He's been very, very good to us this year and I think he'll come through again today over a spot starters. I love Petit. But if he can't go seven innings that's going to get us into that weak D-Backs pen.
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 9.5 Pittsburgh at Houston (8 p.m., Tuesday, July 22)
Just another stellar pitching matchup in Houston, with lefty Paul Maholm (1-5, 5.10 ERA) on the hill for the Pirates and being countered by the immortal Jack Cassel (6.28 ERA anywhere). We have Jim Reynolds behind the dish and the 'over' is 14-4 in his 18 games this year. He doesn't have an overly tight zone, but it should be enough for two bad starters and two weak bullpens to get 'over'.
The Hitman
Guaranteed Selections
Date: Tuesday, July 22, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Today in baseball the Hitman has just what you are looking for! A PERFECT way for you to WHACK your man with his 5000 LARGE PERFECT DIAMOND TOTALS WINNER get it now for just $25 and as always you must win this game or you will not be charged! The Hitman was 79-32 in baseball last season so WHACK your man with this RED HOT BASEBALL WINNER! We are currently 67-28 in Baseball this season! 7/22/2008
5000 LARGE PERFECT DIAMOND TOTALS WINNER
Atlanta/Florida Over 10 7:10 EST
Guaranteed Selections
Date: Tuesday, July 22, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Today in baseball the Hitman has just what you are looking for! A PERFECT way for you to WHACK your man with his 5000 LARGE PERFECT DIAMOND TOTALS WINNER get it now for just $25 and as always you must win this game or you will not be charged! The Hitman was 79-32 in baseball last season so WHACK your man with this RED HOT BASEBALL WINNER! We are currently 67-28 in Baseball this season! 7/22/2008
5000 LARGE PERFECT DIAMOND TOTALS WINNER
Atlanta/Florida Over 10 7:10 EST
GREG SHAKER
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
MLB Money Line Double-Dime Bet
905 SDP (-113) BetUS vs 906 CIN
2 Units Padres (Peavy/Cueto) -113
Very brief on this one. There is no better Mound Competitor in the Bigs right now than Jake Peavy and he has been throwing a lot of Darts lately. His last effort was subpar as he allowed an amazing 4 One Run Dingers to the Cardinals and was beaten 4-3 in that contest. Peavy is a Bounce Back sort of thrower. The last time he allowed this many runs, he followed it up with 6 Shutout Innings verses the Dodgers, and I have seen him do this time and time again. Just give me the ball coach is what is going on here. Cueto has been very hittable of late after a quality start and he is not putting good numbers out there. He has allowed 4 Homers in his last 3 games and he has not had very good command of his pitches. This is a super betting line for this situation and I will play it with Vigor.
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
MLB Money Line Double-Dime Bet
905 SDP (-113) BetUS vs 906 CIN
2 Units Padres (Peavy/Cueto) -113
Very brief on this one. There is no better Mound Competitor in the Bigs right now than Jake Peavy and he has been throwing a lot of Darts lately. His last effort was subpar as he allowed an amazing 4 One Run Dingers to the Cardinals and was beaten 4-3 in that contest. Peavy is a Bounce Back sort of thrower. The last time he allowed this many runs, he followed it up with 6 Shutout Innings verses the Dodgers, and I have seen him do this time and time again. Just give me the ball coach is what is going on here. Cueto has been very hittable of late after a quality start and he is not putting good numbers out there. He has allowed 4 Homers in his last 3 games and he has not had very good command of his pitches. This is a super betting line for this situation and I will play it with Vigor.
Matty O'Shea
MLB Total Single-Dime Bet
914 ARI / 913 CHC Under 9.5
The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Cubs and Diamondbacks at Arizona, and both starting pitchers have favorable trends pointing that way as well. Six of Chicago starter Jason Marquis' last seven road starts have seen nine runs or less scored while Arizona's Yusmeiro Petit pitched outstanding in a 4-3 home loss to Milwaukee back on July 2nd - allowing only one run and two hits in six innings - only to see the bullpen blow it. Look for another low-scoring game here and bet the UNDER as my Single Dime NL Total Play O' the Day.
MLB Total Single-Dime Bet
918 NYY / 917 MIN Over 9.5
New York's Darrell Rasner has not gone more than five innings in any of his last six starts, with the OVER cashing five times during that stretch. Meanwhile, Minnesota's Kevin Slowey has seen at least 12 runs scored in his last three American League starts, with the OVER cashing each time. The OVER is also 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams, so bet the OVER again here as my Single Dime AL Total Play O' the Day.
MLB Total Single-Dime Bet
914 ARI / 913 CHC Under 9.5
The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Cubs and Diamondbacks at Arizona, and both starting pitchers have favorable trends pointing that way as well. Six of Chicago starter Jason Marquis' last seven road starts have seen nine runs or less scored while Arizona's Yusmeiro Petit pitched outstanding in a 4-3 home loss to Milwaukee back on July 2nd - allowing only one run and two hits in six innings - only to see the bullpen blow it. Look for another low-scoring game here and bet the UNDER as my Single Dime NL Total Play O' the Day.
MLB Total Single-Dime Bet
918 NYY / 917 MIN Over 9.5
New York's Darrell Rasner has not gone more than five innings in any of his last six starts, with the OVER cashing five times during that stretch. Meanwhile, Minnesota's Kevin Slowey has seen at least 12 runs scored in his last three American League starts, with the OVER cashing each time. The OVER is also 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams, so bet the OVER again here as my Single Dime AL Total Play O' the Day.
VERNON CROY
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Premium Play
20 Unit MLB Smash of the Night
Boston Red Sox -157
20 Units, Take Boston ML, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Red Sox have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight. Daisuke Matsuzaka (10-1, 2.65 ERA) has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of just 2.15 over 7 starts allowing just 20 hits over 37.7 innings and he has also pitched solid over his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 0.49. The Red Sox are hitting .300 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging 6.1 rpg and Seattle is just 9-26 this season when the posted total is 9 to 9.5. Seattle is just 28-42 this season when facing a right hand starter and the Red Sox are 32-12 when playing against a team that has a losing record. Take Boston as my MLB Smash of the Night.
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Premium Play
20 Unit MLB Smash of the Night
Boston Red Sox -157
20 Units, Take Boston ML, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Red Sox have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight. Daisuke Matsuzaka (10-1, 2.65 ERA) has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of just 2.15 over 7 starts allowing just 20 hits over 37.7 innings and he has also pitched solid over his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 0.49. The Red Sox are hitting .300 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging 6.1 rpg and Seattle is just 9-26 this season when the posted total is 9 to 9.5. Seattle is just 28-42 this season when facing a right hand starter and the Red Sox are 32-12 when playing against a team that has a losing record. Take Boston as my MLB Smash of the Night.
WUNDERDOG
Atlanta at Florida
4 units on Florida +102
Not sure if this Atlanta team with a road record of 16-32 has the credentials to ever be favored on the road. So far the oddsmakers haven't agreed with us, but the results have. Atlanta has been favored on the road 26 times already this season, and has put together a record of 8-18 in those 26 games. It is hard not to see the value in it for us. Meanwhile Florida has maintained the 50% mark as a home dog, which automatically puts them in the plus column in this situation. Florida has also been a good bounce-back team this season winning game two in six of eight tries after losing the series opener at home. We will ride the value and the Marlins here.
Atlanta at Florida
4 units on Florida +102
Not sure if this Atlanta team with a road record of 16-32 has the credentials to ever be favored on the road. So far the oddsmakers haven't agreed with us, but the results have. Atlanta has been favored on the road 26 times already this season, and has put together a record of 8-18 in those 26 games. It is hard not to see the value in it for us. Meanwhile Florida has maintained the 50% mark as a home dog, which automatically puts them in the plus column in this situation. Florida has also been a good bounce-back team this season winning game two in six of eight tries after losing the series opener at home. We will ride the value and the Marlins here.
Sean Higgs
Total Blowout
Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins
Pick: Over
Charlie Morton of the Braves comes in sporting a 8.10 era giving up 12 earned in 13 innings. The Marlins are coming off an extremely poor showing last night. The Fish have too many bats to let that happen again. The over is 4-1-1 the last 6 between these two.
Total Blowout
Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins
Pick: Over
Charlie Morton of the Braves comes in sporting a 8.10 era giving up 12 earned in 13 innings. The Marlins are coming off an extremely poor showing last night. The Fish have too many bats to let that happen again. The over is 4-1-1 the last 6 between these two.
- Apr 7, 2008
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The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
Date: Tuesday, July 22, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Today in baseball the Hitman has just what you are looking for! A PERFECT way for you to WHACK your man with his 5000 LARGE PERFECT DIAMOND BLOWOUT WINNER get it now for just $25 and as always you must win this game or you will not be charged! The Hitman was 79-32 in baseball last season so WHACK your man with this RED HOT BASEBALL WINNER! We are currently 67-28 in Baseball this season! 7/22/2008
5000 LARGE PERFECT DIAMOND BLOWOUT WINNER
NY Yankees w/Rasner -128 7:05 EST
JEFFERSONSPORTS
13-3-1 last 15 plays
43-21 last 64 plays 67%
MLB RECORD
+34.40 units (+3440 playing 100 per game)
EARLY RELEASE FOR TUES
MLB
SAN DIEGO-110
COLORADO-138
ST. LOUIS-138
13-3-1 last 15 plays
43-21 last 64 plays 67%
MLB RECORD
+34.40 units (+3440 playing 100 per game)
EARLY RELEASE FOR TUES
MLB
SAN DIEGO-110
COLORADO-138
ST. LOUIS-138
- Apr 7, 2008
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- 0
- 36
Jeff Scott Sports
Detroit -119 over KANSAS CITY 3 UNIT PLAY
The Tigers are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 18-5 in Rogers' last 23 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, while the 9-24 in their last 33 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 0-8 in Davies' last 8 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. After starting the season with a 4-4 mark and a 6.66 ERA, Kenny Rogers has come back to go 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA in his last 10 starts, including a 2-1 mark with a 2.88 ERA in his last 5 road starts. Kenny is also 13-9 with a 4.05 ERA since 1997 vs the Royals. It has been the opposite for Kyle Davies, as he started out 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his first 4 starts of the year, but since then he has gone 0-1 with a 6.03 ERA in his last 5 starts. Kyle is 1-1 with a 4.60 ERA at home, allowing teams a .388 OBP, while posting a 1.72 WHIP. Way too many baseruners to give this hot hitting Detroit team. The Tigers come in hitting .300 and scoring 8.7 rpg in their last 10 games, plus they have put up 8.8 rpg since the break and they hit .290 and score 5.5 rpg during their night games this year. That is one hot offense. The Royals offense has been better of late, putting up 5.1 rpg in their last 8, but this team still averages just 4.3 rpg at home and 4.1 rpg within the division. Detroit clearly has the pitching and offensive edges in this one, plus they have gone 16-6 in the last 22 meetings at KC and KC is 4-13 in game 2 of a series off a loss. The Royals took the 1st 6 in this series but that was when the Tigers sucked and the Royals were surprisingly good, now things are different and the Tigers showed how much better than the Royals they are with a big 19-4 win last night. It won't be that easy tonight but they will still pick up a nice win and continue their climb back.
2 UNIT PLAYS
HOUSTON/ Pittsburgh Over 9.5
The Over is 37-14-3 in Pirates last 54 road games and 40-16-3 in Pirates last 59 games as a road underdog, while the Over is 9-4 in Astros last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing record, plus the Over is 35-17-4 in Reynolds' last 56 games behind home plate and 5-1 in his last 6 games behind home plate vs. Pittsburgh. Last night there were just too many overwhelming stats that pointed to the over and it made the play look too easy. Well if Houston's pen hadn't given up 7 runs in the ninth my thought process would have been dead on. Tonight the stats aren't so lopsided and that makes me feel better. Paul Maholm has not pitched that bad with a 4.10 ERA overall, but he does have a 5.10 ERA on the road, with his road starts averaging 9.6 rpg. Paul has a 5.55 ERA in 8 career starts vs the 'Stros, including a 13.88 ERA in his 3 trips to Minutemaid Park with tose 3 trips averaging 10.3 rpg. Jack Cassell has 2 starts for Houston this year and has a 5.58 ERA in those starts. He will be facing a Pittsburgh team that scores 5.1 rpg on the road and they have put up 5.1 rpg in their last 7 games.Pittsburgh road games have averaged 11.6 rpg, while their last 7 games have averaged 12.7 rpg. Houston offense has been sputtering of late as they have put just 2.9 rpg on the board in thier last 7 games, but they have hit Paul well in his career and they do hit .277 and score 4.5 rpg at home. This game also features a Pitt pen that has a 5.36 ERA on the road and a Houston pen that has a 5.11 ERA at home. I have no doubt that both teams will be able to put at least 5 runs on the board and that should easily give us a winner on the Over.
ST LOUIS -135 over Milwaukee
The Brewers are 12-28 in their last 40 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 1-8 in Suppans last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record, while the Cardinals are 23-10 in their last 33 during game 2 of a series and 11-1 in Lohses last 12 starts. Jeff Suppan comes into ths game struggling as he has a 1-2 record with a 10.34 ERA in his last 4 starts. Jeff also has struggled on the road this year, going 3-5 with a 6.04 ERA, including an 0-1 mark with a 7.36 ERA in his last 2 starts away from home. Jeff has also allowed teams a .385 OBP and he has a 1.73 WHIP in his road starts this year. Kyle Lohse has not been struggling this year, as he is 12-2 with a 3.35 ERA overall, including a 6-1 mark with a 2.73 ERA at home and an 8-0 mark with a 2.20 ERA at night. Kyle has really looked sharp in his last 4 starts, posting a 3-0 record with a 1.29 ERA. In Kyle's home starts he has allowed teams a .269 OBP and has a 1.04 WHIP. The Brewers offense hit's just .244 and scores 4.5 rpg vs righty starters on the year, plus they score just 4.6 rog on the road and 4.2 rpg at night. The St Louis offense has been on fire lately, as they come in scoring 7.9 rpg over their last 7 games, including 6.6 rpg on their current homestand. T^he Cards hit righty starters pretty well as they score 5 rpg and hit .280 vs them on the year. The Cards don't score that well at home overall, but I do see them getting their fair share vs a struggling Suppan tonight. The Cards lost last night's game and that makes this game an important one as they know they face CC and Sheets in the next 2 games. St louis will bounce back tonight.
1 UNIT PLAY
Toronto/ Baltimore Over 9
The Over is 10-1-1 in Blue Jays last 12 during game 2 of a series and 6-1-1 in Marcums last 8 starts vs. American League East, while the Over is 17-5-1 in Orioles last 23 games as an underdog and 10-2 in Orioles last 12 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, plus the Over is 13-1 in the last 14 meetings. This has been a trully high scoring series of late with 13 of the last 14 in this series scoring 9 or more runs, with the average rpg scored being 12.4 rpg, including 12.1 rpg in the last 6 meetings in Baltimore. Shawn Marcum has been good for the Jays this year with a 2.65 ERA overall, but in his 3 career starts in Camden Yards he has a 7.91 ERA, with those 3 games averaging 12.7 rpg. He will be facing an O's offense that has scored 5.4 rpg in their last 11 and 6.4 rpg on their current homestand. Baltimore has also scored 5.9 rpg vs Toronto pitching this year, and 5.3 rpg at home overall. The Jays haven't hit lefties all that well this year, but they did tag Garret Olsen for 7 run in 3.2 innings of work, 13 days ago. Garret has 2 lifetime starts vs the Jay's and has given up 12 ER on 13 hits and 8 walks in just 6.2 innings of work. Overall Garrett has not pitched that well this year with his ERA being 5.79 overall, 4.76 at home and 6.64 at night. Garrett has really been awfull in his last 7 starts, posting an 8.23 ERA over that stretch, with those games averaging 12.1 rpg, plus his home starts this year have averaged 10.6 rpg, while his night starts have averaged 10.4 rpg. All I need is 4 runs from each team to at least get the push and with the way both teams score vs one another, i don't see that as being a problem. I'll call for about 13 runs in this one.
Detroit -119 over KANSAS CITY 3 UNIT PLAY
The Tigers are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 18-5 in Rogers' last 23 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, while the 9-24 in their last 33 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 0-8 in Davies' last 8 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. After starting the season with a 4-4 mark and a 6.66 ERA, Kenny Rogers has come back to go 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA in his last 10 starts, including a 2-1 mark with a 2.88 ERA in his last 5 road starts. Kenny is also 13-9 with a 4.05 ERA since 1997 vs the Royals. It has been the opposite for Kyle Davies, as he started out 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his first 4 starts of the year, but since then he has gone 0-1 with a 6.03 ERA in his last 5 starts. Kyle is 1-1 with a 4.60 ERA at home, allowing teams a .388 OBP, while posting a 1.72 WHIP. Way too many baseruners to give this hot hitting Detroit team. The Tigers come in hitting .300 and scoring 8.7 rpg in their last 10 games, plus they have put up 8.8 rpg since the break and they hit .290 and score 5.5 rpg during their night games this year. That is one hot offense. The Royals offense has been better of late, putting up 5.1 rpg in their last 8, but this team still averages just 4.3 rpg at home and 4.1 rpg within the division. Detroit clearly has the pitching and offensive edges in this one, plus they have gone 16-6 in the last 22 meetings at KC and KC is 4-13 in game 2 of a series off a loss. The Royals took the 1st 6 in this series but that was when the Tigers sucked and the Royals were surprisingly good, now things are different and the Tigers showed how much better than the Royals they are with a big 19-4 win last night. It won't be that easy tonight but they will still pick up a nice win and continue their climb back.
2 UNIT PLAYS
HOUSTON/ Pittsburgh Over 9.5
The Over is 37-14-3 in Pirates last 54 road games and 40-16-3 in Pirates last 59 games as a road underdog, while the Over is 9-4 in Astros last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing record, plus the Over is 35-17-4 in Reynolds' last 56 games behind home plate and 5-1 in his last 6 games behind home plate vs. Pittsburgh. Last night there were just too many overwhelming stats that pointed to the over and it made the play look too easy. Well if Houston's pen hadn't given up 7 runs in the ninth my thought process would have been dead on. Tonight the stats aren't so lopsided and that makes me feel better. Paul Maholm has not pitched that bad with a 4.10 ERA overall, but he does have a 5.10 ERA on the road, with his road starts averaging 9.6 rpg. Paul has a 5.55 ERA in 8 career starts vs the 'Stros, including a 13.88 ERA in his 3 trips to Minutemaid Park with tose 3 trips averaging 10.3 rpg. Jack Cassell has 2 starts for Houston this year and has a 5.58 ERA in those starts. He will be facing a Pittsburgh team that scores 5.1 rpg on the road and they have put up 5.1 rpg in their last 7 games.Pittsburgh road games have averaged 11.6 rpg, while their last 7 games have averaged 12.7 rpg. Houston offense has been sputtering of late as they have put just 2.9 rpg on the board in thier last 7 games, but they have hit Paul well in his career and they do hit .277 and score 4.5 rpg at home. This game also features a Pitt pen that has a 5.36 ERA on the road and a Houston pen that has a 5.11 ERA at home. I have no doubt that both teams will be able to put at least 5 runs on the board and that should easily give us a winner on the Over.
ST LOUIS -135 over Milwaukee
The Brewers are 12-28 in their last 40 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 1-8 in Suppans last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record, while the Cardinals are 23-10 in their last 33 during game 2 of a series and 11-1 in Lohses last 12 starts. Jeff Suppan comes into ths game struggling as he has a 1-2 record with a 10.34 ERA in his last 4 starts. Jeff also has struggled on the road this year, going 3-5 with a 6.04 ERA, including an 0-1 mark with a 7.36 ERA in his last 2 starts away from home. Jeff has also allowed teams a .385 OBP and he has a 1.73 WHIP in his road starts this year. Kyle Lohse has not been struggling this year, as he is 12-2 with a 3.35 ERA overall, including a 6-1 mark with a 2.73 ERA at home and an 8-0 mark with a 2.20 ERA at night. Kyle has really looked sharp in his last 4 starts, posting a 3-0 record with a 1.29 ERA. In Kyle's home starts he has allowed teams a .269 OBP and has a 1.04 WHIP. The Brewers offense hit's just .244 and scores 4.5 rpg vs righty starters on the year, plus they score just 4.6 rog on the road and 4.2 rpg at night. The St Louis offense has been on fire lately, as they come in scoring 7.9 rpg over their last 7 games, including 6.6 rpg on their current homestand. T^he Cards hit righty starters pretty well as they score 5 rpg and hit .280 vs them on the year. The Cards don't score that well at home overall, but I do see them getting their fair share vs a struggling Suppan tonight. The Cards lost last night's game and that makes this game an important one as they know they face CC and Sheets in the next 2 games. St louis will bounce back tonight.
1 UNIT PLAY
Toronto/ Baltimore Over 9
The Over is 10-1-1 in Blue Jays last 12 during game 2 of a series and 6-1-1 in Marcums last 8 starts vs. American League East, while the Over is 17-5-1 in Orioles last 23 games as an underdog and 10-2 in Orioles last 12 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, plus the Over is 13-1 in the last 14 meetings. This has been a trully high scoring series of late with 13 of the last 14 in this series scoring 9 or more runs, with the average rpg scored being 12.4 rpg, including 12.1 rpg in the last 6 meetings in Baltimore. Shawn Marcum has been good for the Jays this year with a 2.65 ERA overall, but in his 3 career starts in Camden Yards he has a 7.91 ERA, with those 3 games averaging 12.7 rpg. He will be facing an O's offense that has scored 5.4 rpg in their last 11 and 6.4 rpg on their current homestand. Baltimore has also scored 5.9 rpg vs Toronto pitching this year, and 5.3 rpg at home overall. The Jays haven't hit lefties all that well this year, but they did tag Garret Olsen for 7 run in 3.2 innings of work, 13 days ago. Garret has 2 lifetime starts vs the Jay's and has given up 12 ER on 13 hits and 8 walks in just 6.2 innings of work. Overall Garrett has not pitched that well this year with his ERA being 5.79 overall, 4.76 at home and 6.64 at night. Garrett has really been awfull in his last 7 starts, posting an 8.23 ERA over that stretch, with those games averaging 12.1 rpg, plus his home starts this year have averaged 10.6 rpg, while his night starts have averaged 10.4 rpg. All I need is 4 runs from each team to at least get the push and with the way both teams score vs one another, i don't see that as being a problem. I'll call for about 13 runs in this one.
Ross Benjamin
15* NL GOW
Milwaukee @ St. Louis
Play: St. Louis -130 (15*)
The St. Louis starter Kyle Lohse enters the game 4-0 in his last 4 team starts with an excellent 1.29 ERA and very good 1.11 WHIP. In 12 starts at home this season Lohse has posted a stellar 2.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. His adversary Jeff Suppan enters the game in horrible form posting a 10.66 ERA and whopping 2.43 WHIP over his last 4 starts. In 10 starts on the road this season Suppan has posted a lofty 6.04 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. The Cardinals are 14-1 this season in Game 2 of a series following a loss. The Cardinals are hitting a red hot .333 as a team versus right-handed pitching over their last 10 games. St. Louis is a very profitable 11-1 in their last 12 when Kyle Lohse is their starting pitcher. As hot as the Brewers currently are they are still just 14-21 on the road this season versus a right-handed starting pitcher. Play on the St. Louis Cardinals as my MLB 15* National League Game of the Week.
15* NL GOW
Milwaukee @ St. Louis
Play: St. Louis -130 (15*)
The St. Louis starter Kyle Lohse enters the game 4-0 in his last 4 team starts with an excellent 1.29 ERA and very good 1.11 WHIP. In 12 starts at home this season Lohse has posted a stellar 2.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. His adversary Jeff Suppan enters the game in horrible form posting a 10.66 ERA and whopping 2.43 WHIP over his last 4 starts. In 10 starts on the road this season Suppan has posted a lofty 6.04 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. The Cardinals are 14-1 this season in Game 2 of a series following a loss. The Cardinals are hitting a red hot .333 as a team versus right-handed pitching over their last 10 games. St. Louis is a very profitable 11-1 in their last 12 when Kyle Lohse is their starting pitcher. As hot as the Brewers currently are they are still just 14-21 on the road this season versus a right-handed starting pitcher. Play on the St. Louis Cardinals as my MLB 15* National League Game of the Week.
- Apr 7, 2008
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- Apr 7, 2008
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PREGAME FREE PLAYS:
Tue, 07/22/08 - 7:05 PMMarc Lawrence | MLB Money Line
free pick919 TOR (-105) SportBet vs 920 BAL
Analysis: Play On: Toronto w/Marcum vs Olson
Note: The Blue Jays battle the Orioles in Toronto Tuesday night when Shaun Marcum takes on Garrett Olson in the 2nd of this 4-game series. A quick check of current from finds both pitchers on opposite ends of the ladder with Marcum owning a 2.32 ERA in his last five starts as opposed to Olson's 8.23 ERA in his last seven efforts. With Olson having trouble finding the plate of late (10 walks and 9 strikeouts his last three starts), look for Marcum to improve to 8-4 in his last 12 road starts here tonight.
Tue, 07/22/08 - 7:10 PMTony George | MLB Money Line
free pick905 SDP (-112) BetUS vs 906 CIN
Analysis:
Padres -112 @ Cincy
Always worth a serious look at an ace pitcher off a poor performance, and Jake Peavy for the Padres got lit up for 4 homers in a 1 run loss to St. Louis in his last mound appearance. Nothing like motivation for a pitcher with an ERA less than 3 on the year, but has had little run support when you look at his win/loss record, but that does not undermine his prowess on the hill.
Johnny Cueto takes the hill for the Reds, a rookie, with an ERA of over 6 in his last 3 starts, none of them impressive, and this guy gives up hits like crazy, so the Pads should get some run support for Peavy tonight. Although the Padres are not a good road team, I like their chances on the road tonight as a rare road favorite, and for good reason, better and motivated pitching!
Tue, 07/22/08 - 7:10 PMRocky Atkinson | MLB Money Line
free pick905 SDP (-115) SportBet vs 906 CIN
Analysis:
San Diego @ Cincinnati 7:10 PM EST
Play On: 1* San Diego -115 (Peavy/Cueto) Listed
Cincinnati is 3-11 this year when playing on Tuesday. Cincinnati is scoring only 4.1 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Jake Peavy has a 2.66 ERA overall this year and is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA his last 3 starts. Cueto has a 6.16 ERA his last 3 starts. San Diego is 5-2 at Cincinnati the last 3 years. Peavy is 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA overall vs Cincinnati since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Tue, 07/22/08 - 8:05 PMLarry Ness | MLB Money Line
free pick908 HOU (-104) SportBet vs 907 PIT
Analysis: The Pirates entered last night's game on a five-game losing streak but a seven-run 9th led to a 9-3 win at Houston. The nine runs matched the team's total in losing a four-game series at Colorado last week. The Pirates have been a notoriously bad road team in recent years, entering this season with a 121-203 (.373) mark from 2004-07. The win leaves Pittsburgh just 16-32 away from home this year (.333), a winning percentage that is even lower than the team's preceding four-year mark. Paul Maholm (6-6, 4.10 ERA) gets the start and while he's been the team's best pitcher in '08 (Pirates own a ML-worst 5.29 team ERA in '08), he's once again struggling on the road. Maholm had a 6.25 road ERA in '06 (team went 5-10), a 6.14 road ERA last year (team went 5-9) and takes a 5.10 road ERA in nine starts this year (team is 2-7) into this game. While Maholm beat the Astros earlier this year in Pittsburgh to move to 4-3 in eight career starts vs the Astros (team is 5-3), he's had no luck here at Minute Maid Park, going 0-3 with a 13.89 ERA in three starts! The Astros are going nowhere in the highly competitive NL Central (see the Cubs, Brewers and Cards) but they are worth s shot here vs Maholm. Jack Cassell gets the start for Houston, his first since late April. He debuted in the majors last year with the Padres, going 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA in six appearances (four starts). He opened this year with the Astros and despite two mediocre April starts (9.2 IP / 6 ERs / 5.59 ERA), the Astros did win both games. Cassell was just recently recalled from the minors (three days after Oswalt was placed on the DL) and while it's hard to make too strong of a case for him, he did get his first major league win against the Pirates, pitching six innings (eight hits and no runs) of a 3-0 win while with the Padres last September 17 in San Diego. This is more of a "go-against" play vs the Pirates and Maholm on the road. Take Houston.
Tue, 07/22/08 - 7:05 PMMarc Lawrence | MLB Money Line
free pick919 TOR (-105) SportBet vs 920 BAL
Analysis: Play On: Toronto w/Marcum vs Olson
Note: The Blue Jays battle the Orioles in Toronto Tuesday night when Shaun Marcum takes on Garrett Olson in the 2nd of this 4-game series. A quick check of current from finds both pitchers on opposite ends of the ladder with Marcum owning a 2.32 ERA in his last five starts as opposed to Olson's 8.23 ERA in his last seven efforts. With Olson having trouble finding the plate of late (10 walks and 9 strikeouts his last three starts), look for Marcum to improve to 8-4 in his last 12 road starts here tonight.
Tue, 07/22/08 - 7:10 PMTony George | MLB Money Line
free pick905 SDP (-112) BetUS vs 906 CIN
Analysis:
Padres -112 @ Cincy
Always worth a serious look at an ace pitcher off a poor performance, and Jake Peavy for the Padres got lit up for 4 homers in a 1 run loss to St. Louis in his last mound appearance. Nothing like motivation for a pitcher with an ERA less than 3 on the year, but has had little run support when you look at his win/loss record, but that does not undermine his prowess on the hill.
Johnny Cueto takes the hill for the Reds, a rookie, with an ERA of over 6 in his last 3 starts, none of them impressive, and this guy gives up hits like crazy, so the Pads should get some run support for Peavy tonight. Although the Padres are not a good road team, I like their chances on the road tonight as a rare road favorite, and for good reason, better and motivated pitching!
Tue, 07/22/08 - 7:10 PMRocky Atkinson | MLB Money Line
free pick905 SDP (-115) SportBet vs 906 CIN
Analysis:
San Diego @ Cincinnati 7:10 PM EST
Play On: 1* San Diego -115 (Peavy/Cueto) Listed
Cincinnati is 3-11 this year when playing on Tuesday. Cincinnati is scoring only 4.1 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Jake Peavy has a 2.66 ERA overall this year and is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA his last 3 starts. Cueto has a 6.16 ERA his last 3 starts. San Diego is 5-2 at Cincinnati the last 3 years. Peavy is 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA overall vs Cincinnati since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Tue, 07/22/08 - 8:05 PMLarry Ness | MLB Money Line
free pick908 HOU (-104) SportBet vs 907 PIT
Analysis: The Pirates entered last night's game on a five-game losing streak but a seven-run 9th led to a 9-3 win at Houston. The nine runs matched the team's total in losing a four-game series at Colorado last week. The Pirates have been a notoriously bad road team in recent years, entering this season with a 121-203 (.373) mark from 2004-07. The win leaves Pittsburgh just 16-32 away from home this year (.333), a winning percentage that is even lower than the team's preceding four-year mark. Paul Maholm (6-6, 4.10 ERA) gets the start and while he's been the team's best pitcher in '08 (Pirates own a ML-worst 5.29 team ERA in '08), he's once again struggling on the road. Maholm had a 6.25 road ERA in '06 (team went 5-10), a 6.14 road ERA last year (team went 5-9) and takes a 5.10 road ERA in nine starts this year (team is 2-7) into this game. While Maholm beat the Astros earlier this year in Pittsburgh to move to 4-3 in eight career starts vs the Astros (team is 5-3), he's had no luck here at Minute Maid Park, going 0-3 with a 13.89 ERA in three starts! The Astros are going nowhere in the highly competitive NL Central (see the Cubs, Brewers and Cards) but they are worth s shot here vs Maholm. Jack Cassell gets the start for Houston, his first since late April. He debuted in the majors last year with the Padres, going 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA in six appearances (four starts). He opened this year with the Astros and despite two mediocre April starts (9.2 IP / 6 ERs / 5.59 ERA), the Astros did win both games. Cassell was just recently recalled from the minors (three days after Oswalt was placed on the DL) and while it's hard to make too strong of a case for him, he did get his first major league win against the Pirates, pitching six innings (eight hits and no runs) of a 3-0 win while with the Padres last September 17 in San Diego. This is more of a "go-against" play vs the Pirates and Maholm on the road. Take Houston.
- Apr 7, 2008
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- Apr 7, 2008
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Elite Sports Circle Guaranteed Selections
Date: Tuesday, July 22, 2008
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5000* ELITE STEAM BASEBALL WINNER
Detroit w/Rogers -120 8:10 EST
Date: Tuesday, July 22, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: The Handicappers of the ELITE SPORTS CIRCLE were 76-34 in baseball last year proving once again FIVE SHARP MINDS WILL KICK THE BOOKS BUTT! Tonight you can get our 5000* ELITE STEAM BASEBALL WINNER for just $35 and you are GUARANTEED TO WIN or you will not be charged! By the way we are now 115-65 for 64% since January 1, of this year! 7/22/2008
5000* ELITE STEAM BASEBALL WINNER
Detroit w/Rogers -120 8:10 EST
