UFC 104

layinwood

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Getting this now because I don't want it to change.

Shogun +350 5units

I don't know how many of you have seen Shogun lately but he looks great. Typically Shogun carries around quite a bit of weight but the last video I saw of him, he wasn't carrying any extra. This is a very friendly line and there's no way he should be this big of a dog. Shogun has trained quite a bit with Machida and I think that helps. Not that it doesn't help Machida as well but it lets Shogun know where he's at. I don't think Machida's style will be as suprising as it has been for the other guys. Normally my big plays are for guys I think are going to win no matter what but on this one it's all about value. Before the Forrest fight many thought Shogun was the #1 lhw in the world. He went into the fight with an injury and paid for it. I think this fight you will see the old Shogun and his strength in the clinch will decide this. I havne't seen anyone else(that I can think of) attack Machida like Shogun will. Tito came forward but it was to take him down not to strike with him. I'm not sure if Shogun will try and take him down or not. I think he may have enough confidence standing that he keeps it there. I also think Shogun will use his kicks a lot more than we've ever seen him. Machida is a counter striker and he's usually going backwards while he's doing it, this leaves less for Shogun to worry about.

My worries are Shogun's stamina and his wild striking. This could present problems because Machida is so precise and likes to counter.

In my eyes this fight should be somewhere in the -175 range. +350 is just too much and in my eyes it's worth a big play.

fyi-I'll be on Fisher as well, I'm just not sure how much yet.


I'm pissed because I lost more on Franklin then I should have. Brain Fart! I thought about buying my bet back after the line went down, something just didn't feel right, but instead I added more. Even after all the years of this crap I still make mistakes. I don't mind losing but losing more than I should have because I was stupid really pisses me off.
 
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crow

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I was on Shogun vs Lidell when 18 experts out of 19 picked Lidell; i will be again on him at +350; i only need to find out how to hedge this; Machida by dec or ko ?
 

BUCSnotYUCKS

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I was on Shogun vs Lidell when 18 experts out of 19 picked Lidell; i will be again on him at +350; i only need to find out how to hedge this; Machida by dec or ko ?

Just take Shogun and laugh all the way to the bank. Shogun can take a punch, wild swings or not. He's also going to be the best and most well rounded fighter Machida has faced.

I'm so jackedddddddddd:00hour :00hour :00hour
 

weepaul

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I will be taking Shogun in this fight.
Shogun should not be this big an underdog against anybody, including Machida.

I will also be on Yoki Yoshida at +250. He could take Rumble to the ground and sub him.
 

muhr

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i lean towards rua at that number although i don't see him winning.

it's disappointing to see how quickly machida is being made a massive favorite. it was only 2 fights ago that i had my biggest mma wager on machida at -220 and -260 vs. thiago silva. seeing him -450 against rua is silly.
 

kickserv

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Yes I love big underdogs, but I am sorry to say Lyoto Machida will win this fight easily. I know anything can happen in MMA and yes there have been bigger upsets, but Rua should not even be fighting for a title. I think this fight will be over quick, Machida will win this in 1st or 2nd round.

Let us be real here.........

Win..............Chuck Liddell
Win.............Mark Coleman
Loss.............Forrest Griffin

He lost to Forrest, he barely beat a 95 year old Coleman, and then KO'd glass jaw Chuck. I am not sold on Shogun, I'm just not. I usually go for the huge dogs, but in this case, it will be all Lyoto:SIB


And for what its worth, I think the odds on Machida are very good, he should be a much bigger fave. Bottom line is that Rua won't be close to winning this fight, Lyoto by TKO in the 2nd is my call.
 

gardenweasel

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Yes I love big underdogs, but I am sorry to say Lyoto Machida will win this fight easily. I know anything can happen in MMA and yes there have been bigger upsets, but Rua should not even be fighting for a title. I think this fight will be over quick, Machida will win this in 1st or 2nd round.

Let us be real here.........

Win..............Chuck Liddell
Win.............Mark Coleman
Loss.............Forrest Griffin

He lost to Forrest, he barely beat a 95 year old Coleman, and then KO'd glass jaw Chuck. I am not sold on Shogun, I'm just not. I usually go for the huge dogs, but in this case, it will be all Lyoto:SIB


And for what its worth, I think the odds on Machida are very good, he should be a much bigger fave. Bottom line is that Rua won't be close to winning this fight, Lyoto by TKO in the 2nd is my call.

de-banned weasel agrees with k.s.`s post....but at those odds,i can`t say i blame our brothers for taking a whack at rua....
 

BUCSnotYUCKS

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And banned another 2 hours for posting UFC 105 picks in a UFC 104 thread.

Total ban for GW is 11 hours.


Yes I love big underdogs, but I am sorry to say Lyoto Machida will win this fight easily. I know anything can happen in MMA and yes there have been bigger upsets, but Rua should not even be fighting for a title. I think this fight will be over quick, Machida will win this in 1st or 2nd round.

Let us be real here.........

Win..............Chuck Liddell
Win.............Mark Coleman
Loss.............Forrest Griffin

He lost to Forrest, he barely beat a 95 year old Coleman, and then KO'd glass jaw Chuck. I am not sold on Shogun, I'm just not. I usually go for the huge dogs, but in this case, it will be all Lyoto:SIB


And for what its worth, I think the odds on Machida are very good, he should be a much bigger fave. Bottom line is that Rua won't be close to winning this fight, Lyoto by TKO in the 2nd is my call.

Shogun had a torn up knee and obviously was out of shape because he couldn't train against Forrest. He'd destroy Forrest if they fought again.

Also, makes sense to think that Machida will finish Shogun as Shogun has never been KO/TKO'd....you probably thought Chuck was going to do the same thing :rolleyes:

Shogun has a style, and most importantly, a chin to face Machida. I've always said that to beat Machida you can't just let him counter strike and try to bob with him...you have to go right after him and push the pace. Shogun should also be able to take Machida down at will...
 

kickserv

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For what it is worth I am not bashing Shogun I just don't think he deserves a title shot and I just think Lyoto a class above him. I just don't see how Shogun can beat him? Sure anything can happen, but I think Shogun is in for a massive wake-up call against Lyoto. And say whatever you want, but that fight against Coleman was pathetic. You can't make excuses for Shogun in that fight, he was terrible. I just see Machida toying with Shogun, this fight won't even get to the third and if it does it will be clear who is winning.

And don't get me wrong I'd like to see Shogun win, always good to see big upsets, I just don't see it happening. But if Mike Pierce can beat Brock Larson, then anything can happen.
 

BUCSnotYUCKS

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For what it is worth I am not bashing Shogun I just don't think he deserves a title shot and I just think Lyoto a class above him. I just don't see how Shogun can beat him? Sure anything can happen, but I think Shogun is in for a massive wake-up call against Lyoto. And say whatever you want, but that fight against Coleman was pathetic. You can't make excuses for Shogun in that fight, he was terrible. I just see Machida toying with Shogun, this fight won't even get to the third and if it does it will be clear who is winning.

And don't get me wrong I'd like to see Shogun win, always good to see big upsets, I just don't see it happening. But if Mike Pierce can beat Brock Larson, then anything can happen.

He beat Coleman, end of story. That is all that matters, and I don't care how good he looked. He was coming off of 2 knee surgeries, on top of ring rust. If you've ever done anything athleticly and haven't played in the time he took off, you'd be winded/gassed very easy and quick, and very rusty, no matter how much you practice. There's no comparison to games/matches...
 

kickserv

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Bucs......you are correct he did win, and winning is all that matters, can't argue with ya there.



Oh and by the way I think I know a tad about playing a sport professionally.
 

kickserv

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Actually with him being hurt......it is a lot of work.....well worth it though:mj07:
 

WhatsHisNuts

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Shogun had a torn up knee and obviously was out of shape because he couldn't train against Forrest. He'd destroy Forrest if they fought again.

Also, makes sense to think that Machida will finish Shogun as Shogun has never been KO/TKO'd....you probably thought Chuck was going to do the same thing :rolleyes:

Shogun has a style, and most importantly, a chin to face Machida. I've always said that to beat Machida you can't just let him counter strike and try to bob with him...you have to go right after him and push the pace. Shogun should also be able to take Machida down at will...

Shogun's never been KO'd, I'll give you that. If Machida was a knockout artist with a couple of losses, I'd say that Rua stands a good chance...but, Rua is aggressive going against a counter-striker from hell. Bad combo.

I will give you kudos for the "Shogun should also be able to take Machida down at will." comment. That was pretty damn funny. WTF are you basing it off of?

Machida wins easily when a frustrated Rua makes a mistake and gets caught trying to push the pace.
 

BUCSnotYUCKS

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Shogun's never been KO'd, I'll give you that. If Machida was a knockout artist with a couple of losses, I'd say that Rua stands a good chance...but, Rua is aggressive going against a counter-striker from hell. Bad combo.

I will give you kudos for the "Shogun should also be able to take Machida down at will." comment. That was pretty damn funny. WTF are you basing it off of?

Machida wins easily when a frustrated Rua makes a mistake and gets caught trying to push the pace.

...guess you didn't see Sokoudjou take him down easily LOL...if that lame duck can take Machida down, I have no problem thinking that Shogun can. Shogun took Chuck down, when Chuck hasn't been on the ground since I can remember other than when getting punched LOL -- The fact that you question if a KNOWN ground fighter can take down a Karate fighter IS PRETTY DAMN FUNNY...WTF are you basing anything you're talking about off of? LOL
 

The Sponge

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is it me or is this card terrible? First fight is all im interested in :shrug:
 

WhatsHisNuts

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...guess you didn't see Sokoudjou take him down easily LOL...if that lame duck can take Machida down, I have no problem thinking that Shogun can. Shogun took Chuck down, when Chuck hasn't been on the ground since I can remember other than when getting punched LOL -- The fact that you question if a KNOWN ground fighter can take down a Karate fighter IS PRETTY DAMN FUNNY...WTF are you basing anything you're talking about off of? LOL

Great point. Sokoudjou did go 2 for 2 on take downs against Machida. Both takedowns were Judo moves from the clinch where Machida was up and out before Soko could do anything. Awesome reference!

Unfortunately for you, I can play this game too. Just in case you missed it, Tito Ortiz fought Machida. Ortiz tried 9 take downs. Wanna guess how many were successful???? ZERO. That's right, zero. 9 tries and all of them were stuffed. 0-9. Did you get that? Yep, 0-9. You are reading that correctly. He tried 9 times and was unsuccessful in all 9 attempts.

Stylewise, how would you classify Ortiz?
 

BUCSnotYUCKS

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Great point. Sokoudjou did go 2 for 2 on take downs against Machida. Both takedowns were Judo moves from the clinch where Machida was up and out before Soko could do anything. Awesome reference!

Unfortunately for you, I can play this game too. Just in case you missed it, Tito Ortiz fought Machida. Ortiz tried 9 take downs. Wanna guess how many were successful???? ZERO. That's right, zero. 9 tries and all of them were stuffed. 0-9. Did you get that? Yep, 0-9. You are reading that correctly. He tried 9 times and was unsuccessful in all 9 attempts.

Stylewise, how would you classify Ortiz?

Lets not forget that Machida got put in a triangle and got out....since you're SOOOOOOOO WILLING to reference the Tito fight...just shows how terrible is his ground game is...

I think taking down a guy who almost NEVER(Chuck) gets takend down, and getting taken down by a guy who has TERRIBLE ground game(Sokoudjou)...counts for a helluva lot more than stuffing Tito.

I'll bet you ANYTHING that Shogun will have Machida on his back in this fight.
 
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