2009 record 26-15 +30.79
Getting this now because I don't want it to change.
Shogun +350 5units
I don't know how many of you have seen Shogun lately but he looks great. Typically Shogun carries around quite a bit of weight but the last video I saw of him, he wasn't carrying any extra. This is a very friendly line and there's no way he should be this big of a dog. Shogun has trained quite a bit with Machida and I think that helps. Not that it doesn't help Machida as well but it lets Shogun know where he's at. I don't think Machida's style will be as suprising as it has been for the other guys. Normally my big plays are for guys I think are going to win no matter what but on this one it's all about value. Before the Forrest fight many thought Shogun was the #1 lhw in the world. He went into the fight with an injury and paid for it. I think this fight you will see the old Shogun and his strength in the clinch will decide this. I havne't seen anyone else(that I can think of) attack Machida like Shogun will. Tito came forward but it was to take him down not to strike with him. I'm not sure if Shogun will try and take him down or not. I think he may have enough confidence standing that he keeps it there. I also think Shogun will use his kicks a lot more than we've ever seen him. Machida is a counter striker and he's usually going backwards while he's doing it, this leaves less for Shogun to worry about.
My worries are Shogun's stamina and his wild striking. This could present problems because Machida is so precise and likes to counter.
In my eyes this fight should be somewhere in the -175 range. +350 is just too much and in my eyes it's worth a big play.
fyi-I'll be on Fisher as well, I'm just not sure how much yet.
I'm pissed because I lost more on Franklin then I should have. Brain Fart! I thought about buying my bet back after the line went down, something just didn't feel right, but instead I added more. Even after all the years of this crap I still make mistakes. I don't mind losing but losing more than I should have because I was stupid really pisses me off.
Getting this now because I don't want it to change.
Shogun +350 5units
I don't know how many of you have seen Shogun lately but he looks great. Typically Shogun carries around quite a bit of weight but the last video I saw of him, he wasn't carrying any extra. This is a very friendly line and there's no way he should be this big of a dog. Shogun has trained quite a bit with Machida and I think that helps. Not that it doesn't help Machida as well but it lets Shogun know where he's at. I don't think Machida's style will be as suprising as it has been for the other guys. Normally my big plays are for guys I think are going to win no matter what but on this one it's all about value. Before the Forrest fight many thought Shogun was the #1 lhw in the world. He went into the fight with an injury and paid for it. I think this fight you will see the old Shogun and his strength in the clinch will decide this. I havne't seen anyone else(that I can think of) attack Machida like Shogun will. Tito came forward but it was to take him down not to strike with him. I'm not sure if Shogun will try and take him down or not. I think he may have enough confidence standing that he keeps it there. I also think Shogun will use his kicks a lot more than we've ever seen him. Machida is a counter striker and he's usually going backwards while he's doing it, this leaves less for Shogun to worry about.
My worries are Shogun's stamina and his wild striking. This could present problems because Machida is so precise and likes to counter.
In my eyes this fight should be somewhere in the -175 range. +350 is just too much and in my eyes it's worth a big play.
fyi-I'll be on Fisher as well, I'm just not sure how much yet.
I'm pissed because I lost more on Franklin then I should have. Brain Fart! I thought about buying my bet back after the line went down, something just didn't feel right, but instead I added more. Even after all the years of this crap I still make mistakes. I don't mind losing but losing more than I should have because I was stupid really pisses me off.
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