UFC 127 Penn vs. Fitch - February 27th 2011

[Ghost Kid]

Saturday's UFC 127 prelims airing on ION Television, streaming on Facebook
http://mmajunkie.com/news/22558/sat...g-on-ion-television-streaming-on-facebook.mma

 

[layinwood]

The line on Fitch is high but I'm going to pop it pretty good I think. I looked back at some of my plays for the last few years and for some reason it seems like I've gone away from the favs that are around -200 even though I had a lot of success with them.

I don't see anyway Fitch loses this fight. He might lose a round if he struggles to get BJ down but he's not getting KO'd and more than likely he'll have BJ sucken air by the 2nd. BJ just isn't big enough to fight the top guys at WW. Fitch isn't going to be beaten by anyone that doesn't go by three initials so the 200 isn't that bad.

 

[kickserv]

Agreed......I think BJ will be sucking major air by round 3....Fitch will dominate Penn in rounds 2 and 3

 

[Ghost Kid]

I think after this bout people are going to be saying things like

"BJ doesn't belong at 170" and "That was a bad matchup for him"

But many of us know this already

 

[gardenweasel]

The line on Fitch is high but I'm going to pop it pretty good I think. I looked back at some of my plays for the last few years and for some reason it seems like I've gone away from the favs that are around -200 even though I had a lot of success with them.

I don't see anyway Fitch loses this fight. He might lose a round if he struggles to get BJ down but he's not getting KO'd and more than likely he'll have BJ sucken air by the 2nd. BJ just isn't big enough to fight the top guys at WW. Fitch isn't going to be beaten by anyone that doesn't go by three initials so the 200 isn't that bad.

b.j.p.?.....

/dude,i couldn`t resist....:lol: ..i have fitch in a par or two...just don`t think penn has the size or strength...and i`m not impressed with penn`s sub game off his back...

 

[kickserv]

Nick Ring :canada1 beat Riki Fukuda $2.05 (+105) *1.5 Joe Rogans

Jon Fitch wins inside distance $8.00 (+700) *0.75 Joe Rogan

 

[ukgaz]

Took Maciej Jewtuszko - good on the ground and standing

 

[The Sponge]

Took Georgy at -305 earlier today. don't think i will get it any better then that. See the same book has it at -325 now. lucky punch is only way he loses.

 

[kickserv]

<iframe title="YouTube video player" width="640" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/PoB8LoiyxXo" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[SixFive]

I like Ebersole and fisher at ++odds, and I think Tuscherer is prime parlay material. Mark hunt was finished years ago!

 

[gardenweasel]

i was very excited when i saw jason reinhardt`s record(20-1 w/ 16 subs)......i remembered zhang gassing horribly early in the 2nd round vs the great danny downes(lol).....

so i was thinking,"mans!...a very live +235 doggie"...until i looked closer...

this guy hasn`t fought in 2 years....almost all his wins are over guys that are horrible or ridiculously inexperienced...he`s a natural 135 pounder(zhang a natural 155 pounder...this is at 145)....

trying to get more info on reinhardt...zhang was done after a round vs downes...i mean done-done...all his other fights ended in the 1st....

he is very dangerous early.....was hoping that reinhardt was decent....looks like he`s not...

damn !!..

 

[The Sponge]

I like Ebersole and fisher at ++odds, and I think Tuscherer is prime parlay material. Mark hunt was finished years ago!

Man talk about two cans fighting. Hunt may have a shot here but i doubt it. Both stink

 

[gardenweasel]

nibbling around the dges with a few props....very small...just for action...

*zhang quickest sub of the night(+725)...this guy is sneaky with the subs early.....12 wins...all in the 1st round....9 of em subs.....

he almost had danny downes several times in the first rd in his loss...he dominated..then around the 1 minute mark of rd 2,he turned into a dish rag...the guy may have the worst cardio i`ve ever seen...he`s done early in the second...


reinhardt is 20-1...but he`s a natural 135 pounder fighting at 145...zhang is a 155 pounder fighting at 145...reinhardt`s opponents are embarrassing...he`s made a living off beating the inexperienced or flat out bums....he`s been out of action since 2008...and he`s 41 going on 42...

if it goes to the second,reinhardt may have a chance...because quan will be used up...

*so a small play on reinhardt at +235(not holding my breath here)...but honestly, i believe he`s here for one reason...to lose and to help quan open up the asian market for dana...

*sotiropuolos wins itd....it is in front of his homies...he has a substantial height and reach advantage...i think george really wants to finish here...but siver is a verrrry dangerous striker...that spinning back kick breaks ribs...that`s why i expect sotiropoulos to get this to the ground as quickly as possible...

*bisping itd +130...i think at some point bisping gets this to the ground....or maybe not...i do know that conquistador has 7 losses...all itd...and it looked like bisping was setting down on his punches more vs akiyama....

there is a huge difference in quickness...bisping does have 16 stoppages in 20 wins...so,contrary to popular opinion,he can finish fights...and rivera is 39....and i honestly think there might be a little pressure on bisping to finish here...lots of bad-mouthing...

if you really think about it,rivera`s win streak is vs very ponderous, ?? competition...and it sure seems like that when bisping fails,the ufc is more than willing to put their british cash cow/star into very favorable match-ups to keep the ball rolling...

even though theres an element of danger here,i think this is one of those favorable match-ups...

got noke in a pending par with marquardt..noke could lose.....but i thoght camozzi struggled badly vs the asian(until the asian..like most other asian fighters,gassed)...most rbr reports had camozzi losing 2-1...lefty stance is bothersome...but,i like home field......

looking for a few more "substantial" plays...

 

[layinwood]

Fitch -200 3units


Very big play for me a Fitch and it will cash.


I'll put my updated record on here in a second, getting ready to be on a conference call and don't want to be trying to add up all my losses. LOL I believe I've lost 4 in a row. Not sure if that's good or bad for this play.

 

[gardenweasel]

Fitch -200 3units


Very big play for me a Fitch and it will cash.


I'll put my updated record on here in a second, getting ready to be on a conference call and don't want to be trying to add up all my losses. LOL I believe I've lost 4 in a row. Not sure if that's good or bad for this play.

i agree...penn beats fitch and i`ll be shocked...if this were 5,i`d be all over it...

 

[The Sponge]

i agree...penn beats fitch and i`ll be shocked...if this were 5,i`d be all over it...

Me too. Penn is to dangerous to dick around with in a three round fight. Jaw or not Penn can hurt ya. 5 rounds im all over Fitch. Penns stamina has improved like it or not but those five round fights were against guys that didnt push him. Diego would have if he didnt get caught early and the Frankie fights were basically boxing matches. Fitch mauls ya. I doubt Fitch even gets him down the first round. To risky for my blood.

 

[Ghost Kid]

Weighs in are 10PM EST tonight, due to Australia time difference.

MMAJunkie and MMAFighting will have links.

 

[kickserv]

Same time as MFC 28

 

[The Sponge]

i remember taking Rivera over Quarry simply cause i knew Quarry was washed up. Rivera looked piss slow in that contest. This would be the easiest fight in the world for Bisping if u knew he was gonna fight smart but Rivera possible has gotten into his head.

 

[gardenweasel]

i think i can honestly say that if bisping gets ktfo here,his days as even a pseudo-contender are over.....

a loss here would effectively make him a gate keeper,imo....

you can forgive him for losing a fight in the last minute and a half vs wanderlei silva...but when you take fights against one-dimensional journeyman...and you fancy yourself a contender,you have to win those bouts...period...particularly after losing to a way-past his prime silva...