UFC 129: "God of MMA vs. Shields", April 30th, Toronto, Ontario

[kickserv]

MMA Record (since UFC 58)
---------------------------------------------
Prop Bet 40-70
Fighter vs. Fighter 259-405
Parlays 108-170

+5.41 Joe Rogans


God of MMA :canada1 inside distance $2.20 (+120) *2.5 Joe Rogans

God of MMA :canada1 wins in Round 4 $11.00 (10-1) *half Joe Rogan

God of MMA :canada1 wins in Round 5 $13.00 (12-1) *half Joe Rogan

Jason Brilz beat Vladimir Matyushenko $2.00 (+100) *1 Joe Rogan

Rory Macdonald :canada1 beat Nathan Diaz $1.95 (-105) *2 Joe Rogans

Mark Bocek :canada1 beat Benson Henderson $2.00 (+100) *1.5 Joe Rogans

Jason Macdonald :canada1 beat Ryan Jensen $2.05 (+105) *1 Joe Rogan


Parlay
-------------------------------------
God of MMA:canada1
John Makdessi:canada1
Ivan Menjivar:canada1
Yves Jabouin:canada1

odds = $4.74 (+374) *1 Joe Rogan



Note: The bible thumper barely made weight.......god won't help him against Bocek.

The Rory/Diaz fight is going to be sick:shocked:

 

[gardenweasel]

5 dimes now has in-play wagering.....

can anybody give a quick explanantion regarding how this works?....never had a book that offered it....

thanks...

o.k...i got a handle on it...

 

[kickserv]

Ghost......I think Aldo will win, but don't sleep on Hominick. He is super tough and super fast with his hands. He may last until the 5th.


GW.........I am 99 percent sure 5dimes won't do the second by second betting that other books do. You will be able to bet on the fights between rounds. And I doubt it will be for every fight. Most likely the televised fights only.

 

[THE_THONG]

5 dimes now has in-play wagering.....

can anybody give a quick explanantion regarding how this works?....never had a book that offered it....

thanks...

look for the video using the facebook link :142smilie

 

[gardenweasel]

look for the video using the facebook link :142smilie

let me be clear,i have it down now.....


/translation for "let me be clear"="i don`t have a f-cking clue".....


:mj07:

 

[DeFactoCrippler]

It's fight day boys, and I'm actually excited. Which is strange, because normally if you said GSP vs Shields, I would think that would be the most boring one sided fight ever.

The UFC really did their job. If this fight was GSP vs Fitch 2, everyone would be yawning, even though Shields is an even more boring fighter, who has even less a chance of winning.

They did a great job of selling Jake as well. I was wondering how they would do that, considering he is pretty much a bum and GSP winning the fight is almost fore gone conclusion. So, instead of selling his skills based on merit, they sold them to you based on emotion.

Little pieces of Americana interspersed between choreographed footage of Jake "submitting" a training partner. Subtle hints as to his "never say die" American spirit. It makes you feel good to believe in Jake Shields.

God bless whoever bet that line down.

Shields is simply an "offering". Like a mouse dropped into a cage with a hungry snake. This is actually the easiest fight GSP has had in a long time. The UFC knows that, they want him to make "history" because it is good for the sport. Believe me, GSP losing here would set MMA back years.

 

[gardenweasel]

It's fight day boys, and I'm actually excited. Which is strange, because normally if you said GSP vs Shields, I would think that would be the most boring one sided fight ever.

The UFC really did their job. If this fight was GSP vs Fitch 2, everyone would be yawning, even though Shields is an even more boring fighter, who has even less a chance of winning.

They did a great job of selling Jake as well. I was wondering how they would do that, considering he is pretty much a bum and GSP winning the fight is almost fore gone conclusion. So, instead of selling his skills based on merit, they sold them to you based on emotion.

Little pieces of Americana interspersed between choreographed footage of Jake "submitting" a training partner. Subtle hints as to his "never say die" American spirit. It makes you feel good to believe in Jake Shields.

God bless whoever bet that line down.

Shields is simply an "offering". Like a mouse dropped into a cage with a hungry snake. This is actually the easiest fight GSP has had in a long time. The UFC knows that, they want him to make "history" because it is good for the sport. Believe me, GSP losing here would set MMA back years.

pretty bold stepping out on an almost 5-1 fave fighting on home turf......

but contrary to popular opinion,win or lose,shields deserves the shot.....

shockingly,the ufc`s job is to hype the fight...imagine that...quite a concept,eh?...

hyping shields is like dunking on a fisher-price b`ball hoop compared to hyping dan hardy....this one was easy.....

i`m hoping that it goes to the ground early,but i think gsp`s too smart to take a chance on grappling with shields before he`s softened him up....

i`ll say it again...i believe a "fresh" shields outgrapples gsp....

but gsp`s just too smart..and has too many tools in his shed...

should look similar to gsp/fitch...but more difficult early in the fight....lots of jabs from gsp..

 

[Ghost Kid]

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[gardenweasel]

i was sitting on my hands hoping that 5 dimes or sportsbook would post some props on macdonald/jensen.....

while looking at jensen`s record i came across the fact that the dude hasn`t had ANY of his fights go to decision....not one...that`s 22 fights and win or lose,every one was a stoppage of some sort....

that`s pretty incredible....i remember him totally tooling court mcghee for a round and then totally collapsing.....i think he loses via stoppage because he just can`t sustain...sometimes you just physiologically don`t have good cardio....it`s just in his dna...nt evertyybody has good cardio...just like not everybody can run fast or jump high....

they just don`t have it...


i wish macdonald was aware that all he needs to do is survive early....just gut out the first round or so...because jensen just hits the wall...

if i could find "jensen by ko/tko" and "macdonald by submission" props,i`d play em both at plus odds and take my chances...

jensen`s never seen the final bell in a fight ...win or lose...

that`s pretty amazing for a guy that isn`t known as an incredible striker or submission artist...

 

[DeFactoCrippler]

pretty bold stepping out on an almost 5-1 fave fighting on home turf......

Lol, the only reason I even posted regarding this fight was because the majority of people on this forum seemed to be touting Shields in some fashion, or touting the fight as a "war".

but contrary to popular opinion,win or lose,shields deserves the shot.....

Hey man, we went through this in the other thread. Your entitled to your opinion, but to be fair you really offer no justification for your statements.

It's a common trend regarding this fight, people are saying Shields is going to win by submission, and when questioned as to why they think that, they can only say..."Because he will" or "You'll see".

This is why I suggest people are making their decision based on emotion because they are unable to state the logical manner in which they arrive at their conclusions.

hyping shields is like dunking on a fisher-price b`ball hoop compared to hyping dan hardy....this one was easy.....

Hyping Shields was easy not because of his merit as a fighter, but because "most people" love being served bullshit on a platter.

Go back and watch the videos, lol. They had to pay a guy to film choreographed scenes with him submitting a guy for the opening footage of UFC Primetime while they showed fight footage of GSP.

I guess they didn't have rights the footage of his "epic" armbar of daley, or the chokes he got infront of 15 people in PR. So they kept replaying the lawler guillotine, and (you guessed it) the fitch video.

Most of the "hype" was of jake's upbringing and shots of the American flag, and small town USA highways intended to elicit sentimentality. They sold him as the "All American", all the while juxtaposing him with GSP "The Foreigner".

i`m hoping that it goes to the ground early,but i think gsp`s too smart to take a chance on grappling with shields before he`s softened him up....

I really don't see how he can even get this to the ground. Watch the first round of the Hendo fight, until Hendo gassed he couldn't take him down and look what happened. He didn't even get him down in the second, hendo went for a sub and jake slipped out and swept.

You think this is going to get GSP down?

I remember earlier you asked how Shields kept getting people to fight his game. It's because he takes incredible risks to try and secure a takedown, like a lobotomized grappling zombie. That gif is not in slow motion. His takedowns are atrocious.

It's part of the hype again, they tout his wrestling background, but he was only a mediocre high school wrestler in that small town you saw in the video.

Failed takedowns get you gassed out very quickly, and gsp has the best takedown defence in the UFC. You already agreed that GSP dictates where the fight goes, so if he decides it stays on the feet, what chance does shields have?

I will be betting GSP inside the distance, the only way Shields is even standing after the third round is if GSP just decides to use his head as a speedbag.

 

[The Sponge]

GSP said "Don't Blink" And this tells me all i need to know for this one. Now the task is getting this at a good price. Hoiminick /Aldo. Hominick couldn't stop Roops kicks how is he gonna stop Aldo's? Then again i couldn't dare take Aldo with this high of a line, and him coming off recent surgery. I still think this is a stylistically a bad match-up for Machida but i could see Machida winning a close decision. Nate Rory i love to see the kid win but the size disadvantaged looked huge which means we are gonna see a million jabs. Will Rory walk right thru them or is Nate this good where he can keep Rory off of him. To me this is a bad betting card. Lots of dogs have a shot but betting dogs and losing 3 round decision are not to fun. GSP just needs not to get frustrated and he will be fine.

 

[DeFactoCrippler]

Machida by KO/TKO

Once again the oddsmaker does his job. Everybody is scrambling to justify their sentimental "value" bet on Randy. There is no value in someone when they are KTFO.

Randy knows he is getting KTFO, thats why he announced his retirement before the fight, that way it won't look like he retired because of the KO.

I love the way they try and hype the fight by saying randy asked for it. Randy asks for everyone and the UFC doesn't give them to him because they know he will lose, and his "name" is worth so much more.

He has not fought anyone relevant in years. They use his "legend" status to sell PPVs like the Couture/Coleman main event, wtf was that. James Toney, are you kidding.

Now it comes to and end where Randy donates his brain cells to the UFC fans, just like all the other "legends" Iceman, Crocop, ect...

Machida has lost 2 fights in a row and I seriously don't think he wants to take this to decision.

 

[ukgaz]

Should be a great event. I don't see much betting wise though for me

Speed kills. GSP, Aldo and Machida all have this advantage in their fights though I would not rule out any of their opponents. Shields and Couture have a history of winning when few expected them to and Hominick is a much better fighter than his first stint in the UFC

I was tempted on Bocek against Henderson. Bocek is very technical with his submissions and if he gets a lock on Bendo then their may be no escape

 

[THE_THONG]

gsp invented the internet for canada

 

[DeFactoCrippler]

Nate Rory i love to see the kid win but the size disadvantaged looked huge which means we are gonna see a million jabs. Will Rory walk right thru them or is Nate this good where he can keep Rory off of him.

I was leaning towards Diaz myself but a lot of people are touting Rory.

If I was going to bet Rory I would have him by decision at +200. There is no way he finishes Nate. Nate has a great chin and he looked superb off his back vs Kim, it was really impressive. I don't see how Rory can sub him.

Im leaning heavily that this fight is a "war", and betting that it goes the distance at -120. I was wondering why the bocek fight was on the main card and not this one, I think it's because the UFC believes this will be an exciting 3 round fight to air on spike and try and generate some last minute PPV sales.

 

[DeFactoCrippler]

GSP/Makdessi -110

Makdessi trains with GSP, and the word is that he looking good for this fight. Makdessi got bet up big even though he is a relative unknown. Also, TUF winner Brookins was inexplicably pulled from this fight, probably because it was a tough matchup against somebody without a name.

Kyle Watson looked unimpressive on the TUF show, I like him to get KTFO here.

 

[DeFactoCrippler]

I was leaning towards Diaz myself but a lot of people are touting Rory.

If I was going to bet Rory I would have him by decision at +200. There is no way he finishes Nate. Nate has a great chin and he looked superb off his back vs Kim, it was really impressive. I don't see how Rory can sub him.

Im leaning heavily that this fight is a "war", and betting that it goes the distance at -120. I was wondering why the bocek fight was on the main card and not this one, I think it's because the UFC believes this will be an exciting 3 round fight to air on spike and try and generate some last minute PPV sales.

After mulling this over I feel this best bet is Rory/Diaz fight of the night at +325.

This way the bet can still win even if the fight ends in a finish. Plus the fact that the UFC loves giving these guys that bonus, Rory got it in his last fight and Diaz has got it four times. His style is perfect for these "wars".

I don't see any of the fights on the main card being close enough to be FOTN. It's impossible to have a FOTN that involves matushenko.

 

[Deucer]

Jose Aldo vs Mark Hominick - Round Prop
Completes 4 Full Rounds
Wont Complete 4 Full Rounds
Completes 4 Full Rounds +350

MAX PLAY ON THE OVER :0corn

JMac +120 very small, gotta go with a local boy.

Adding:
Pierson inside distance +450 (max)
Pierson/Ellen WON'T complete 2 full rounds +190 (max)

 

[Ghost Kid]

Adding:
Pierson inside distance +450 (max)
Pierson/Ellen WON'T complete 2 full rounds +190 (max)

Never. Pierson will never finish Ellenberger. Absolutely not.

 

[Ghost Kid]

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