UFC FIGHT NIGHT 18: April 1st, Nashville, Tennessee

[kickserv]

no picks thread....still boycotting.......and after last week when I kicked ass in Japan again, I must stick with the boycott.

We have to stick to our principles......:SIB

I will not be bullied:box2: :tongue

 

[muhr]

in my mind it would be a good thing if Condit were out-wrestled... that makes for more scrambles on the ground and, IMO, doubles Condit's chances of pulling off a submission. :shrug: He's had major success against wrestlers in his career.

:toast:

I'm suprised you think Condits advantage would be standing up. Almost all of his fights are finished by subs. He hasn't shown that much stand up skill, I think Kampmann's standup should be quite a bit better than his. Kampmann's stiking is very good(you're not a tai boxing champ without having good striking) and like you said he seems to be able to take some punishment. I was actually very impressed when I went back and watch the Nate fight. The kick he took from Nate would have taken most guys out then and there but he kept fighting. Unfortunately for him he took some more bombs after that.

i haven't seen martin's recent fight, but as i remember it he's lost the standup portion of all his ufc fights.

thales beat him standing for the 1st round and then gassed which allowed martin to turn the tables.

mcfedries was blasting him, which forced martin to go for the takedown.

i can't remember many details from the rivera fight other than a quick takedown and sub.

and marquardt quickly koed him.

all of the success i remember martin having has been on the ground other than when thales was gassed.

condit seems quite varied with his striking, punches, knees and kicks. along with his height and reach i think think that's where he'll be most difficult.

i think most of condit's wins are by sub because his opponents keep taking him down.

i guess it might sound strange that i'm suggesting martin go for the takedown with the above sentence in mind, but martin's groundgame has been his best attribute from what i've seen.

 

[kickserv]

muhr......good stuff ya make good points:SIB

Condit is no joke that's for sure. But let us remember that Condit is making his UFC debut and that his resume is nowhere close to Kampmann's.

Condit hasn't faced anywhere close to the competition that Kampmann has. Combine that with Condit making his debut, I really like Kampmann. And yes Nate Marquardt destroyed him, but no harm in that loss.

I guess all as I am saying is that Kampmann has "been there" and I think that makes the difference. Kampmann catches Condit with a leg kick, that's my call:SIB

 

[gardenweasel]

i haven't seen martin's recent fight, but as i remember it he's lost the standup portion of all his ufc fights.

thales beat him standing for the 1st round and then gassed which allowed martin to turn the tables.

mcfedries was blasting him, which forced martin to go for the takedown.

i can't remember many details from the rivera fight other than a quick takedown and sub.

and marquardt quickly koed him.

all of the success i remember martin having has been on the ground other than when thales was gassed.

condit seems quite varied with his striking, punches, knees and kicks. along with his height and reach i think think that's where he'll be most difficult.

i think most of condit's wins are by sub because his opponents keep taking him down.

i guess it might sound strange that i'm suggesting martin go for the takedown with the above sentence in mind, but martin's groundgame has been his best attribute from what i've seen.

i don`t have your memory regarding these fights,muhr....would you mind posting a couple videos from these kampmann bouts?

thanks,bud...

 

[gardenweasel]

saw the mcfedries fight...mcfedries looked twice as big as kampmann,and is a lefty...

and again,it looked to me like kampmann started out another fight in a very lackadaisical manner while his opponent came out bombing from the start...

i think the guy is better suited to 170 than 185...

still,if i were him i`d be more concerned with getting subbed that k.o.`ed...

probably a no-go for me because of kampmann`s tendency to be slow getting off the blocks...

condit has been subbing guys in a very expeditious manner...even though his competition in the wec hasn`t always been ufc level....

could go either way...a kampmann loss really sets him back in the ufc...

 

[dawgball]

Condit is definitely stepping up in class here. He's really great, though.

This is a coin flip fight. No dice for me.

 

[rawli007]

muhr......good stuff ya make good points:SIB

Condit is no joke that's for sure. But let us remember that Condit is making his UFC debut and that his resume is nowhere close to Kampmann's.

Condit hasn't faced anywhere close to the competition that Kampmann has. Combine that with Condit making his debut, I really like Kampmann. And yes Nate Marquardt destroyed him, but no harm in that loss.

I guess all as I am saying is that Kampmann has "been there" and I think that makes the difference. Kampmann catches Condit with a leg kick, that's my call:SIB

I've got to 100% disagree with this.

Although it is Condit's UFC debut, Condit has a clear edge in experience AND strength of competition IMO. Also, Condit has been in some serious wars.......

:box2:

 

[kickserv]

Well I 101% disagree with you....so I'm up 1 percent I win

 

[layinwood]

It's going to be a war, if it's anything short of a three round battle I would be shocked. I went big on Kampmann but I think he out points Condit.

 

[rawli007]

Well I 101% disagree with you....so I'm up 1 percent I win

i disagree infinity and beyond :00x17

 

[dawgball]

i disagree infinity and beyond :00x17

 

[weepaul]

2009 Record
10-2 +18.11 units

Going very big on this.

Kampmann -115 5units


By far my biggest play since my loss on Lidell vs Evans but I'm up a good amount this year and I love this bet.

Kampmann has beaten a lot of very good fighters and at a heavier weight, his only loss in the last 5 years was to Nate and there is no shame in that. I love Condit and have won big money on him but I think there is a slight edge for Kampmann and I'll take it.

Shit Brother.

I am going opposite you again for big money.
I think these guys are almost mirror images but Condit is better on the ground.
I believe he subs Kampmann.

I am also one of the guys who is going big on Cole Milier. His transitions on subs are very good and I think he catches Junie at some point.

These will be my only 2 BIG plays for this UFC.

Be careful boys. I am due a big win in UFC as since we have been keeping track I think my record is 1 win 12 losses :scared

It's difficult to keep a shitty track record like that for a long period :mj07:

Good Luck All!!! :toast: :toast: :toast:

 

[dawgball]

It's difficult to keep a shitty track record like that for a long period :mj07:

Especially when we have some kind of lame protest going on.

Somebody start the Picks Only thread!

 

[layinwood]

Wee, at least one of us we'll be very happy after that fight then. :00hour

A few more things about this fight. One is that I don't think you can discount the fact that this is Condit's first fight in the UFC. It might not matter but there is a chance it does. It's the biggest stage in MMA and to say it won't matter isn't fair. In every sport when you step up to a bigger stage there's an adjustment.

I had an opinion of Kampmann and it wasn't very good. I was actually dissapointed because I had heard he was going to be unreal when he was first coming in and then he sort of let me down. Then you add the Nate fight and I lost all faith in him. But then I went back and watched all of his fights. For one, the guy has a great chin. He has taken some bombs and didn't blink and they where by some big hitting guys. Yeah Nate KO'd him but watch the fight. That kick would have dropped cold most guys but he kept standing, problem is he couldn't fully recover and also took so very big hits after the kick from Nate.

Take away the first round with Leites(I do agree with GW that Kampmann needs to start quicker, he seems too relaxed) and he beat the crap out of Leites for the next two round. He really dominated him and this is a guy who's fighting for the belt in a higher weight class then what Kampmann will be fighting in.

I actually don't think this fight will go to the ground, Kampmann has a very good sprawl but if it does I don't see Condit subing him. I don't think Kampmanns ground skills are getting enough credit. Leites has him in the first and never even came close to threatening him with a sub and I would consider Lietes very good BJJ fighter.

And the last thing. Condit hasn't faced better competition. Quantity of fights doesn't make for quality. The fact is he's been fighting guys that weren't good enough to make the UFC. The last really good guy he face was three years ago and he lost to Jake Shields. Since then who has he fought that was good? Brock Larson, I don't see him on the same level as the guys that Kampmann has been fighting that are in the UFC and in a bigger weight class at that.

Of course I could be totally wrong and Condit KO's Kampmann in the first 30 seconds.

 

[weepaul]

Wee, at least one of us we'll be very happy after that fight then. :00hour

A few more things about this fight. One is that I don't think you can discount the fact that this is Condit's first fight in the UFC. It might not matter but there is a chance it does. It's the biggest stage in MMA and to say it won't matter isn't fair. In every sport when you step up to a bigger stage there's an adjustment.

I had an opinion of Kampmann and it wasn't very good. I was actually dissapointed because I had heard he was going to be unreal when he was first coming in and then he sort of let me down. Then you add the Nate fight and I lost all faith in him. But then I went back and watched all of his fights. For one, the guy has a great chin. He has taken some bombs and didn't blink and they where by some big hitting guys. Yeah Nate KO'd him but watch the fight. That kick would have dropped cold most guys but he kept standing, problem is he couldn't fully recover and also took so very big hits after the kick from Nate.

Take away the first round with Leites(I do agree with GW that Kampmann needs to start quicker, he seems too relaxed) and he beat the crap out of Leites for the next two round. He really dominated him and this is a guy who's fighting for the belt in a higher weight class then what Kampmann will be fighting in.

I actually don't think this fight will go to the ground, Kampmann has a very good sprawl but if it does I don't see Condit subing him. I don't think Kampmanns ground skills are getting enough credit. Leites has him in the first and never even came close to threatening him with a sub and I would consider Lietes very good BJJ fighter.

And the last thing. Condit hasn't faced better competition. Quantity of fights doesn't make for quality. The fact is he's been fighting guys that weren't good enough to make the UFC. The last really good guy he face was three years ago and he lost to Jake Shields. Since then who has he fought that was good? Brock Larson, I don't see him on the same level as the guys that Kampmann has been fighting that are in the UFC and in a bigger weight class at that.

Of course I could be totally wrong and Condit KO's Kampmann in the first 30 seconds.

Good luck my Jack's Brother :toast:

I agree with you that Condit could get stage fright.
I also love Kampmann in this weight class.

My counterpoint is this-
I believe Kampmann beating Leites was due to completely shit conditioning on Leites part. This will not be a problem for Condit.

Carlos actually gave Kitaoka a pretty good fight. The fight only lasted 4 minutes but Kitaoka did not have it easy and Kitaoka has a sub game from hell.

Condit beating Charuto and Trigg in less than 2 minutes combined was a pretty big deal in my mind as they were still considered pretty good and were both favoured to beat Condit.
He then gave Shields all he could handle and a lot of people had him winning the fight.

When he joined WEC, he started blasting through people.
His win over Larson was impressive to me as Larson was considered a beast and yet again Condit won in a couple of minutes over a guy who was favoured to beat him.
His win over Prater was impressive to me as it showed how much he had improved from 4 years ago.

It seems to me that when Condit is the underdog or fighting a real threat, he shines, such as his fights with Charuto,Trigg, Shields, Larson and Prater.
He seems to have problems when he is expected to win easily such as in his fights with Healy and Miura.
He should be "UP" for Kampmann.

As you say, one of us will be happy :toast:

 

[kickserv]

adding more, so looks like this:


MMA Record (since UFC 58)
---------------------------------------------

Prop Bet 23-20
Fighter vs. Fighter 119-185
Parlays 63-77

+35.19 Joe Rogans


Cole Miller beat Junie Browning $1.80 (-125) *2.5 Joe Rogans

Martin Kampmann beat Carlos Condit $1.83 (-120) *2.5 Joe Rogans

Carmelo Marrero beat Ryan Bader $4.33 (+333) *1 Joe Rogan

Aaron Simpson beat Tim Mckenzie $1.53 (-189) *3 Joe Rogans :scared

Matt Horwich beat Ricardo Almeida $3.45 (+245) *1 Joe Rogan

Steve Steinbeiss beat Ryan Jensen $2.55 (+155) *1 Joe Rogan

Jorge Rivera bet Nissen Osterneck $1.65 (-154) *3 Joe Rogans :scared

Tim Credeur beat Nick Catone $1.85 (-117) *2 Joe Rogans


Yes I know Ryan Bader is getting lots of press (rightfully so) but Carmelo Marrero is no joke. Marrero last loss was to Wilson Gouveia back in UFC 71, and since then he hasn't lost. I know Bader has a great future and the UFC is feeding him Marrero for an easy win. But not so fast. Taking a shot at Marrero at those odds seems like a good play. This will be a tough test Bader, if Bader takes him lightly we may see a big upset here. I am counting on Bader not being able to finish Marrero (his stand up isn't exactly great) and maybe Carmelo catches a frustrated Bader.

Aaron Simpson is undefeated, and all wins by KO. And yep that will continue. Plus both these guys pretty much know that if they win they may fight in the UFC again, if they lose it is :sadwave: Aaron Simpson has big time power and will win again by KO. And he knows McKenzie well, they used to train together, I just don't see Simpson losing this one:SIB

Matt Horwich last fought to a tough loss against Dan Miller and now faces a tough Ricardo Almeida. Not a great match-up for him here, but I don't think Almeida should be such a big fav. Horwich is experienced and I think may find a way to upset Almeida here. He just may pull out a decision win in this one. Matt knows he's done in the UFC if he goes down, I see an inspired effort from him here. And I am not sure why Almeida gets the hype he does. He looked like shit against Cote. In that fight my grandma showed more aggression then he did. I think Almeida is a tad over-hyped and may just may have a "bad loss" to Horwich when all is said and done. And finally Horwich ain't no scrub, he's got wins over Josh Burkman, Benji Radach, Mike Pyle, Jason MacDonald and Krzysztof Soszynski. I mean that ain't bad. The match-up sucks for Horwich, but I still think he has a shot and with those odds, I'll take him

Steve Steinbeiss vs. Ryan Jensen is the classic striker vs. grappler match. The striker wins this one. Loser will be out of the UFC, and that guy will be Jenson. Kind of feel bad for Jenson, his UFC opponents have not exactly been easy (Wilson Gouveia, Demain Maia and Thales Leites). He knows he's got to beat Steinbeiss to stay in UFC and I don't see that happening. The line on Steinbeiss is a gift, take it.

Jorge Rivera has tons and tons of experience, he will win, enough said. Combine that with Osterneck making his UFC debut, it is bye bye Osterneck:sadwave:

Tim Credeur at -117.........what That line don't make sense to kickserv His only two career losses are to Joey Villasenor and Chael Sonnen and he's improving every fight. Ok no more write up, just take Timmy, he wins this one.

Cole Miller submits Junie, blah blah blah about Junie and where he trains:jerkit:

 

[layinwood]

Ugh, I hate having his much riding on just one fight. I'm nervous as hell and would like these fights to start already.

 

[Ghost Kid]

Just counted them up....12 fights this time!?!?

That's a lot of options...scary...
:scared

Isn't it usually 10 on a UFC card?

 

[The Sponge]

Kick i know u are gonna be disappointed in this but i really like this card. :SIB

 

[dawgball]

My one day reminder just popped up for the event!!

Woohoo!! I am stoked about tomorrow night!!