UFC Fight Night 19: Sep 16th, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

[gardenweasel]

Jay Silva looked like a bad bad man, a bad man:scared You gotta be on tons of crack to take Dollaway at his odds, tons of crack I tell ya.

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[SixFive]

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[gardenweasel]

i wish the odds were a little more competitve in the cantwell/stann fight....i guess cantwell could get caught again,but i doubt it...this guy has seriously improved....he`s quickly becoming one of my favorites to watch....

parring him with somebody...either condit or maynard...maybe both....

i really want to put something on credeur...but,in my gut i know he`s stupid enough to stand in with quarry...he holds his chin to high and is easy to hit....but i liked his sub attempts on catone....

as strong as he is(and he`s a strong striker),quarry is also very stiff and one dimensional...he was lucky to slip by a mediocre pete sell...and even though i had him vs macdonald,i think that macdonald never really got started in that fight....

probably credeur`s lack of physicality and untucked chin garner him a beatdown...but,if he`s smart,and can hang in through the first round onslaught,he has a half a shot...

i spent time writing about credeur,which in my heart of hearts i think is a stoopid wager(i just think the odds are enticing)...very small....but the guy i love is cantwell....i`m not sure that people get how good luis cane really is...and cantwell hung right in with him....

i really don`t expect after two fights with one-dimensional stann,that he has anything new to offer an improving,multi-dimensional cantwell....

he has a punchers`s chance..but,i don`t see it...



i

 

[kickserv]

Agree with ya GW....Cantwell should smoke Stann:SIB

 

[weepaul]

Phil Nover will not win, walked into weigh-in without sunglasses. Takes sunglasses out of jeans and puts em on and then gets on scale. We all know about "the sunglasses rule". Stout will beat him easily. I thought Stout would win easily before the weigh-in, now with Nover wearing the glasses, he is done

My only bet for this card was Nover and I also have him in a couple of Parlay's BUT, I HATE Fuckers that put sunglasses on during weigh ins or ring walks.
It is a curse to get your lights turned out for real!!
Fuck you Nover, you Fucked me as well as yourself!!! :shrug: :mj07: :sadwave:

I also bet Jensen to beat Steinbeiss at -160. I thought Jensen looked just as big at the weigh ins, which surprised me. :scared

Good luck all!!!:toast: :toast: :toast:

 

[The Brainiac]

Leonard Garcia is a good example versus Brown and Nover himself in his last fight :mj07:
Fighters with sunglasses = NO GO
They trying to cover fear in their eyes kurby

 

[The Sponge]

i wish the odds were a little more competitve in the cantwell/stann fight....i guess cantwell could get caught again,but i doubt it...this guy has seriously improved....he`s quickly becoming one of my favorites to watch....

parring him with somebody...either condit or maynard...maybe both....

i really want to put something on credeur...but,in my gut i know he`s stupid enough to stand in with quarry...he holds his chin to high and is easy to hit....but i liked his sub attempts on catone....

as strong as he is(and he`s a strong striker),quarry is also very stiff and one dimensional...he was lucky to slip by a mediocre pete sell...and even though i had him vs macdonald,i think that macdonald never really got started in that fight....

probably credeur`s lack of physicality and untucked chin garner him a beatdown...but,if he`s smart,and can hang in through the first round onslaught,he has a half a shot...

i spent time writing about credeur,which in my heart of hearts i think is a stoopid wager(i just think the odds are enticing)...very small....but the guy i love is cantwell....i`m not sure that people get how good luis cane really is...and cantwell hung right in with him....

i really don`t expect after two fights with one-dimensional stann,that he has anything new to offer an improving,multi-dimensional cantwell....

he has a punchers`s chance..but,i don`t see it...



i

i agree with all of this Weasy. I would be leary to take Quarry at even money which means i feel this is worth the risk to take a shot at Tim. Nate is just to one dimensional for my liking and Tim has really improved. His striking is borderline pathetic, so ya have to pray he wants to win instead of just standing with Nate and getting out boxed or out muscled. Like Cantwell also. Very impressed with his showing against Kane. As for Gullard i just can't chance this guy. To many mental lapses for me. All the athletic ability in the world with a two cent brain. Still like Maynard a lot but got to get this price down a bit. I can see a lot of money coming in on Huerta cause the odds are to tough for some to pass up. I think Maynard wins this and he is next in line to fight BJ if BJ gets past the nightmare.

 

[The Sponge]

Oh and KIck i like this card better then the pay per view card. Much better. Be even better if they put Stevens on the card.

 

[The Brainiac]

Problem for Credeur will be getting Quarry to the ground I think , I was leaning Credeur's way but seeing how quick Quarry's sparring partner for this fight beaten Credeur up ( Chael Sonnen ) in around 2 minutes I don't like his chances anymore . He did improve and it was his last loss but he didn't really fight any world beaters . If Quarry wants to keep it standing and I think he will want to it will stay there . Credeur might try to use his jab but it will probably be just matter of time when he gets clocked or Quarry can take him down if stand up doesnt work and pound him out . Catone got caught in a guillotine and was getting in all sorts of submissions trouble being on top in the first round but Quarry has much better top control then Catone and I cant see Credeur catching him with anything if it goes to the ground . Quarry has shown brutal elbows ground and pound in his last fight and it was against a somewhat similar opponent , maybe with even better BJJ .

 

[gardenweasel]

Problem for Credeur will be getting Quarry to the ground I think , I was leaning Credeur's way but seeing how quick Quarry's sparring partner for this fight beaten Credeur up ( Chael Sonnen ) in around 2 minutes I don't like his chances anymore . He did improve and it was his last loss but he didn't really fight any world beaters . If Quarry wants to keep it standing and I think he will want to it will stay there . Credeur might try to use his jab but it will probably be just matter of time when he gets clocked or Quarry can take him down if stand up doesnt work and pound him out . Catone got caught in a guillotine and was getting in all sorts of submissions trouble being on top in the first round but Quarry has much better top control then Catone and I cant see Credeur catching him with anything if it goes to the ground . Quarry has shown brutal elbows ground and pound in his last fight and it was against a somewhat similar opponent , maybe with even better BJJ .

that`s basically what i was saying.....my thinking on this is that quarry will probably overpower credeur....credeur,much like kenflo,needs to hit the fricking weight room...they`re good fighters... vs. physical guys they`re gonna struggle....

but,i`m just not sold on quarry....that sell fight sticks in my brain...he was almost done in that fight and pulled it out with a desperation shot...he was lucky it was sell(who manages to lose practically every big fight no matter how well he`s doing)......

i get that sell and credeur are like ying and yang stylistically...but the odds appeal to me...:shrug: very small...

and btw...sonnen is much better than quarry,imo......

macdonald is an enigma...he can look very good...and he can look like total shite...

don`t want to give the impression i`m doing a sell-job on credeur...i`m not...i`m just taking a flyer because he`s better than a 2-1 dog here......

cantwell i really like....it might be a little dicey for cantwell early on while stann`s fresh......but i feel he`ll get it done...

 

[layinwood]

2009 record 23-14 +32.72 units

I seem to be spinning my wheels lately but I have a couple of big plays in the next couple of UFC events so I need to make sure I don't lose anymore ground.

Maynard -340 .5unit
Condit -370 .5unit
Diaz -235 .5unit


I was going to parlay these three because I think they'll all win but I win more if they do and lose less if just 1 loses. I don't see 2 of the 3 losing(although it could happen). If I parlayed them I would win .67 but if they all win straight I win 1.5
. My ROI is a lot better betting straight and ROI is all I care about.

 

[kegray1]

Is something going on with the CB/Silva fight?

Two of my books have taken the line off the board.

 

[The Sponge]

Is something going on with the CB/Silva fight?

Two of my books have taken the line off the board.

I notice this earlier also. Jotted some lines down this morning (from a few places) and at Bet Cris the only line that changed was the Brock Larson fight as it went from -455 to -500. I wonder if this guy he is fighting is a stiff or Bookmaker aka Cris caught wind he is hurt or sum shit. Dollaway line is back up. I wonder why it was down also.

 

[The Sponge]

Looks like this kid fighting Conduit has a granite beard. Don't like wagering against these type of guys. :nono:

 

[The Brainiac]

Looks like this kid fighting Conduit has a granite beard. Don't like wagering against these type of guys. :nono:

But does he have arms and neck made of steel ? Cuz Condit has nasty subs from bottom but top position as well . :mj07:
I wish they allowed stomps and soccer kicks , Condit has finished some guys in a nasty way like that :scared

 

[muhr]

i'll probably be passing on this one.

i think maynard wins, but i've been moving away from betting on big favorites.

maybe wilson over pyle as a small dog.

 

[The Sponge]

But does he have arms and neck made of steel ? Cuz Condit has nasty subs from bottom but top position as well . :mj07:
I wish they allowed stomps and soccer kicks , Condit has finished some guys in a nasty way like that :scared

Yeah i heard about these sub guys the night Mia got knocked out in 7 seconds. Last time i heard they said Mia was the best sub guy around.

 

[layinwood]

Yeah i heard about these sub guys the night Mia got knocked out in 7 seconds. Last time i heard they said Mia was the best sub guy around.

Damn Sponge, let a man be KOd in peace. I can't believe you would kick him(and me because I said he was great) while he's down. :mj06:

 

[The Brainiac]

Yeah i heard about these sub guys the night Mia got knocked out in 7 seconds. Last time i heard they said Mia was the best sub guy around.

easiest 1k ever :mj07:

 

[kickserv]

adding more plays, so these are final:


MMA Record (since UFC 58)
---------------------------------------------

Prop Bet 28-30
Fighter vs. Fighter 151-240
Parlays 71-93

+22.98 Joe Rogans


Roger Huerta beat Gray Maynard $3.75 (+275) *1 Joe Rogan

Roger Huerta beat Gray Maynard $4.00 (+300) *half Joe Rogan

Jake Ellenberger beat Carlos Condit $4.25 (+325) *1 Joe Rogan

Jay Silva beat C.B. Dollaway $3.25 (+225) *1 Joe Rogan

Jay Silva beat C.B. Dollaway $3.55 (+255) *1 Joe Rogan

Tim Credeur beat Nate Quarry $3.10 (+210) *1 Joe Rogan

Mike Pyle beat Chris Wilson $1.77 (-130) *2 Joe Rogans

Justin Buchholz beat Jeremy Stephens $3.10 (+210) *1 Joe Rogan


Parlay
--------------------------
Sam Stout...............................Void
Steve Cantwell
Brock Larson

odds = $1.61 (-164) *3 Joe Rogans:scared