Preview & outright plays:
The most anticipated event of the year and on a course which is as infuriating as beautiful. The is the title the players most want to win. Unusually for a Major, the players face wide-open fairways and not a particularly long course, but that has not meant low-scoring here in the past, though not because of the measures to make the course "Tiger-proof" after 1997 (mind you, he has not come close to winning since). Instead, the course's defenses lie with its sculptured and very undulating greens. The slower Bermudagrass had been the strain used when the course had been designed, but now with an extremely slick Bentgrass surface, the target area for approach shots to each green has become extremely small as downhill putts are the ruin of every card.
For that reason, driving ability is not a significant factor here. The champion has each year since 1994 been in the top-10 of that weeks' greens in regulation and putts per hole stats or has been 1st in one of them. This is traditionally a course for those with great ball control and those with great short games. Mark O'Meara had just 105 putts [the best in the last seven years] when winning the Masters in 1998; Vijay Singh had 19 more putts last year, but hit 18 more greens in regulation [58, the best in the last seven years]. The winners of the past three years may have been available at long prices [50/1, 66/1, 66/1], but their games have been predictable.
Not because this is the Masters, but because I can't decide between two of the shorter-priced players, there are four outright plays this week. These are Vijay Singh, Davis Love, Phil Mickelson and Mike Weir. In the previous 65 Masters tournaments, the champion has defended his crown successfully on only two occasions, but Singh is of the caliber that re-write record books, especially in his current form. He has finished no worse than 4th in his last six events, winning two of them, and has not shot a single round over par this year! He righted a previously poor record at Augusta last year when he won by hitting the greens in regulation and avoiding the strain on his short game, which is much better now that he uses the long stick - he currently ranks 3rd in the PGA Tour putting average stats. As defending champion, it should be that Woods is his strongest challenger and not the other way around.
I couldn't split Davis Love and Phil Mickelson, so have gone for both. Love has an excellent record in this event, finishing no worse than 7th in five of the last six years and being runner-up twice. In terms of prize money won at the Masters in the past ten years, he ranks 2nd behind two-time winner Olazabal. He comes into this event in better form than in previous years and having won the At&T Pebble Beach this year, he looks a much stronger prospect to win rather than just feature with that monkey off his back.
Like Love, this event is #1 on Mickelson's list of priorities and no other Major fits their long, but sometimes erratic game better. With one of the best short games in the business, there is no reason why he should not play well here and he has done in the past without winning. Also akin to Love, the last six years have seen a high number of finishes in the top-7, four as opposed to Love's five, and over the course of the last five years, they share an identical 7-under-par cumulative total. They both suffered in the wind & unfair greens last week, but if the conditions remain calm in Augusta then it could be over to Monty for the title of 'best player not to win a Major'.
Finally, Mike Weir completes a trio of players who played last week, but it is he who comes out of that event with the greatest fillip. He played superbly to recover from a dismal first round and not only make the Sunday slog by one shot, but also finish 2nd and put McCarron under pressure. He has only played in this event once before when he finished 28th last year, but that was the result of a disappointing 78 in the final round when he had started the day in 5th place. He has an excellent all-round game, particularly on the greens, and comes into the event in great form having finished 2nd in two of his last three events. Unlikely to win, but should feature this week.
Outright plays:
Vijay Singh to win 12/1 e.w. [5 places] @
Stanley [14/1 & 4 places @ [
Simon Bold]
Phil Mickelson to win 16/1 e.w. [5 places] @
Bet247
Davis Love to win 20/1 e.w. [5 places] @
BlueSq
Mike Weir to show 11/1 [4 places] @
Olympic
