The point is, if you don't think Tiger will win, you can get great odds on other players -- you don't need to pick the winner.
Who can face down Tiger? I like Bjorn. He crumbled at Pebble and learned an incredible lesson. He took it to Tiger on the last 18 at Dubai. He wants another shot and he's got the game, that's for sure.
By the way, with Par 4's measuring 454, 467, 456, 491, and 466 and a par 5 of 642, Tiger will not be hitting very many long irons off the tee. That doesn't mention the wind. If any of those holes are into the dry, hot wind, they will be must-driver holes.
Tiger's distance will not be that much of a help. On the long par 4s that I mentioned, only one will give a huge advantage. On the 454, #1, everyone will be able to hit a wedge or 9 or 8 into the green. On the 471 #2, there is a 235 carry. Look to see a lot of drivers and a 3 wood from Tiger. I doubt you'll see him hit iron here. The biggest advatage is on #12, 456 yards where Tiger can hit iron and everyone else will have to hit driver. On the 491 #16, you need to carry the ball about 280 -- everyone will hit driver. And on the 18th, 466 yards, the drive is a lay-up below the creek. His power game is really negated. He'll have to use driver when everyone else uses driver and when he uses irons and 3 woods, everyone will be able to.
And, despite the above post, the par 5's makes a huge differnce. At 642 yards, it is a HUGE equalizer. Suppose Tiger hits a 320 drive, he's still 320 out. What does he do? He lays up to a full wedge. If someone else hits it 280, what does he do? He lays up to a full wedge. A really long par 5 is the biggest equalizer against length unless it can be reached. #5 can't be reached unless there is a strong back wind. Even if Tiger bombs his drive off the elevated tees, its uphill to the green. This isn't a 590 par 5 where Tiger and only Tiger can reach this. Everyone will be hitting wedges in -- and there is no difference between a 30 yard pitch and a 90 yard pitch. In fact, you may see Tiger lay up to 90.
Look for Tiger to hit a ton of those knock down 3 woods on the par 4s. That's the shot he didn't have at Congressional.
What hole is Tiger going to hit 7 and others hit 4? Not too many. Tiger may hit 4 and the others hit 2, but this course is much more even than Pebble. This course has long par 4s (454, 471, 456, 491, 466) and short par 4s (368, 382, 374, 374, 365) and only 2 par 4s that will greatly benefit Tiger (408 & 412).
All that said, if Tiger starts rolling his flat stick, forget about it. If he starts draining every 15 footer he sees, as he did at Pebble, etch the trophy now.
I wish Monty's back wasn't acting up, this would be a perfect course for him. Long, accurate driver with a natural fade. Great long irons. I just can't back him, pun intended. Lehman is very intriguing - he was so strong at Congressional.
I love Bjorn. Was second at Pebble before fading, second at the British, Third at the PGA and beat Tiger by 2 at Dubai.
And guess who he's paired with on Thursday...
[This message has been edited by Bonovox (edited 06-11-2001).]
