Preview & outright plays:
The US Open is a brutal event. Narrow fairways, heavy rough and hard, small and fast greens make this a daunting prospect. Carnoustie was described as the toughest course in the world when it staged the British Open two years ago; it would only take wind to make Southern Hills a worthy contender to that title. The second Major of the year, but a complete opposite to Augusta National. Only four players have ever won the Masters and the US Open in the same year - it is one of Jack's feats that Tiger has yet to achieve.
The fairways have been trimmed to 24-32 yards wide in line with US Open tradition, though the primary rough has been allowed to grow to 3-4 inches rather than the customary five. No comfort there as the rough is Bermuda grass so the ball is more likely to settle at the bottom. With the greens set to run at 11" on the stimpmeter at the start of the week, they will only get slicker and more than ever, it will be the short game that defines the US Open champion. This is not a long course even for a par-70, measuring less than 7000 yards, so many players will hit irons - as Garcia did in the Colonial - off the tee to keep the ball in play. Deftness around the greens and an ability to cope with the slick and undulating greens ("Maxwell's Rolls") will be crucial.
Will Tiger win? Yes, I think he will. He dominated the game last year because of the huge improvement in his short game, especially holing out from within 20 feet. In the past couple of months, he has shown that it is that part of his game that has been returning to its peak. More importantly though, his psychological dominance over the rest of the field gives him the greatest edge. Tiger will have to lose this event before most other players have a chance of winning it.
There are a few exceptions and the first selection is one of those. I am jumping on the Garcia bandwagon and believe that he poses the greatest threat to Tiger. Perry Maxwell designed the Colonial Country Club as well as Southern Hills and much has been written about the link between performances in the MasterCard Colonial and at Southern Hills. With the maturity to plays irons off the tee and center his game plan around his short game, Garcia won the Colonial last month. He has one of the best games in the world around the greens and he revels on lightning fast greens. He only finished 46th in his sole US Open start last year, but looking more mature in his outlook, with the mental strength to block Tiger and with a sizeable support from the crowd, he looks the most likely candidate to tame the Tiger.
The 2nd outright pick is Vijay Singh, but this is for the 'w/o Woods' markets. He does get fazed by Tiger, so those markets are the best option for the Fijian. With his putting gremlins supposedly a thing of the past - if the putting stats are to be believed - the double-Major champion looks one very likely to contend. He has finished in the top-10 in four of the last six US Open and in the two Tour Championships to be held at Southern Hills in 1995 and 1996. Having finished in top-5 in nine of his sixteen events this year and with 5 place on offer for the 'w/o Woods' market, he should at least get a place return.
The 3rd pick, and again for the 'w/o Woods' markets, is Paul Azinger. He completes a trio of players who have early tee-times and can get themselves established in the tournament before the greens become very slick in the afternoon. He has played sparingly this year and that can only be a good thing as far as preparation for this event is concerned. Yet he comes into this event in great form as well. He was 2nd in his last outing (to Tiger and alongside Garcia) at the Memorial two weeks ago and has not finished outside the top-15 in any of his last five tournaments. Add to that top-15 finishes in his last three US Opens, then he looks a decent shot at the available odds and if Tiger does finish in the top-5, he only needs to finish 6th to gain a place win.
Outright plays:
Sergio Garcia to win 33/1 e.w. @
Sportingbet
Vijay Singh to win 14/1 e.w. @
Surrey ['w/o Woods' market]
Paul Azinger to win 50/1 e.w. @
Bet247 ['w/o Woods' market]
